I’m not interested in trading Bitcoin. It’s too hard to time when the crash will come. It’s important to keep in mind, it’s not Tulip bulbs. There is a rational basis for the currency. Unlike traditional currencies:
- Flows from one country to another are not tracked
- Sender and receiver of a flow are anonymous, unlike any bank transfer or credit card transaction
- Flows are not taxed
- Balances are not identified with any country or legal jurisdiction
- No central bank can expand or contract the money supply for political reasons
These are benefits for Gold bugs, tax dodgers, rebels and criminals. All of the value resides there. I expect the competitive response to this will be a universal currency, UN-style, using the same technology, but addressing some of the above needs in some kind of legal way. When that happens, Bitcoin will drop to 0 except for purely criminal transactions and other transactions requiring secrecy.