Optimal play for a long view on AlphaCast

I am playing an EURUSD question on AlphaCast.  I made a heavy commitment early on.  I now feel that optimal play for prediction market profit maximization, if I have a view that I expect to hold for the life of the question, is to look at the lifespan of this question (in this case, to August 1st), and then titrate my view in over time.  I see the other players going long or short in time to the latest change in the market.  So if my view is short, wait for an uptick, short a small portion, and then wait for the next downtick/uptick for people to go long again, and short again, over the life of the question, until I’ve shorted my whole view.  This should get me the best price for the view over time, assuming that the rest of the crowd will always trade their expectations according the latest news.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s