I behave differently in market format versus survey format forecasting sites

In survey format I tried to cover every question including many I had no interest in, using an automated aggregation method.  I tried to get in at the very start of questions as much as possible and then have no choice but to stick to the end.  I comment a lot because there is less penalty for debate and the crowd in survey format tends to be much more social.

In market format I pick only those questions I have an edge in.  I tend to pick questions closer to expiry to gain quickly from misperceptions.  I only forecast questions that are in the middle of the probability range, say 25% to 75%.  I know that market format rewards making a smaller series of small corrections more greatly than making a single large correction and then waiting to expiry.  I cash out of questions frequently.  I comment little, out of experience not to give information away and not to try to mislead with excess information, because misleading can create enmity and cause people to want to take me down in trading.  Better quiet and incremental.

It stands to reason that if other participants are similar, these two kinds of markets should have qualitatively different response functions to changing information about a question.  I don’t know if this is true, but it’s something to think about.

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