Crowd forecasting sites

I’m thinking I’m winding down my interest in this topic, but a few notes for old time’s sake.  There are some variables:

  • Format:
    • Market format: People bet real or fake money and are ranked by their account balance
    • Survey format: People make forecasts, and are ranked by their Brier Score
  • Compensation:
    • Reputational: Leaderboards, badges, titles
    • Prize-based: The market compensates the forecaster with case prizes
    • Pay for time, not accuracy: With cash, or coupons and similar barter compensation
    • Market-based: Zero-sum game where one forecaster’s loss is another’s gain.  Within this, whether it is
      • Fake money
      • Fiat currency (a/k/a real money)
      • Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, Litecoin and similar)
  • Socialness
    • Unsocial.  Forecasters don’t communicate
    • Team-oriented.  Forecasters communicate only with their team
    • Social.  Forecasters communicate with all other forecasters
  • Openness
    • Result open/closed. Forecasters can see the aggregate forecast
    • Competitive open/closed/medium.  Forecasters can see some or all of the leaderboards and scores of other forecasters
    • Analysis open/closed/medium.  Forecasters can see some or all of other forecaster’s forecasts
  • Agenda
    • Agenda-driven.  Site exists to promote discussion framed around a view
    • Analysis-driven.  Site exists to predict the outcome of a well-defined scenario accurately
    • Market research.  Site exists to gather forecaster’s opinions regarding a future event without actually expecting an accurate forecast of the outcome of that event.
  • Domain.  What kind of events does the site focus on.
  • Commercial/non-profit, and for commercial ventures, early stage or profitable, and software vendor to research or analysis vendor to clients.
  • Public or private site.  Open to the public or instantiated for particular clients.

With these distinctions in mind, here are some sites I’ve come in contact with and their categorization, in no particular order:

Inkling Markets.  Market format, fake money market-based and reputational, social, open results, medium competitive, analysis closed, analysis driven, geopolitical and financial domains.   Commercial software vendor, early stage, acquired.  Public site.

Early Warning Project Expert Opinion Pool. Actually I think the platform for this is Inkling Markets under the hood.  I’m not in it so I haven’t looked.

GJOpen.  Survey format, reputational compensation, results open, medium competitive, analysis open, mixed agenda, geopolitical, financial, sports and commerce domains.  Public and private sites.  Commercial early stage. Platform from CultivateLabs, formerly Inkling Markets.

AlphaCast.  A blend of InklingMarkets and GJOpen, mixed by CultivateLabs.  Just starting up.  Market format, reputational compensation, results open, medium competitive, analysis open, mixed agenda, geopolitical, financial, sports and commerce domains.  Public and private sites.  Commercial early stage.

PredictIt.  Market format, US dollar, social, results open, competitive closed, analysis closed, analysis driven, geopolitical domain, non-profit, public site.

Survey Monkey.   Survey format, no compensation, unsocial, results closed, market research, any domain.  Why do I include it?  Because depending on what you are pushing a forecasting site to do, it does the same thing.  Anybody can use it to make a custom survey.  Public and private site.  Commercial profitable.

SwagBucks and similar.  There are a bunch of these.  Get paid to take a survey.  Survey format, pay for time compensation, unsocial, results closed, market research. Public site.  Commercial profitable.

Foresight Engine.  Survey format, reputational compensation, results open, medium competitive, analysis open, agenda-driven, geopolitical, financial, science and commerce domains.  Public and private sites.  Nonprofit.

Unu.  Survey format, reputational compensation, results open, medium competitive, analysis open, mixed agenda, geopolitical, financial, sports and commerce domains.  Public site.  Commercial early stage.

Huunu.  No relation to Unu.  Market format, prize-based, social, analysis-driven, medium competitive, results open, analysis closed, client-defined domains.  Private sites.  Commercial early stage software vendor.

Hypermind and Almanis.  Market format, prize-based, social, analysis-driven, medium competitive, results open, analysis closed, geopolitical and financial domains.  Public and private sites.  Commercial early stage software vendor.

Ladbrokes and similar.  Bookie sites.  Market format, market based, fiat currency, analysis-driven, unsocial, results open, analysis closed, sports, geopolitical and financial domains.  Public site, commercial profitable.

Predictious and similar.  Bitcoin prediction markets.  Market format, market based, Bitcoin, analysis-driven, unsocial, results open, analysis closed, sports, geopolitical and financial domains.  Public site, commercial profitable.

Zocalo.  Market format open-source prediction market software.  On you how you apply it!

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