GITREP 21APR16pm

460x

I am using a new super-picker which picks the 12 best forecasters who have forecast in one or more questions in a cluster.  As discussed in a prior post, this is because with a growing number of questions and tiring forecasters, there are fewer and fewer forecasters who have forecast in all questions in the cluster.  So there will be an adjustment in my forecasts, per below, sometimes pretty big.

Clusters
Africa
Asia
Capital controls
China
EU
Entertainment
Environment
Iran
Latin America
Markets
Middle East
North America
North Korea
Russia
Sports
Syria
US Presidential election

Africa

Status Question
Finished Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Finished How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
Running Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?

Closed: 2

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Branch Answer
Amama Mbabazi No
Kizza Besigye No
None of the above No
Yoweri Museveni Yes

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Branch Answer
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive No
Less than 10,000 Yes
More than 15,000 No

Open: 6

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Dima K -1.06 Yes 50
dkc -1.01 Yes 85
GeneH -1.00 Yes 55
einsteinjs -1.00 Yes 38
ravel -1.00 Yes 72
clinton -0.99 Yes 84
AlexisTocqueville -0.98 Yes 85
Sjens -0.97 Yes 14
patrickmeehan5 -0.93 Yes 65
mparrault -0.92 Yes 55
alistaircookie -0.86 Yes 51
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 59 44

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dkc -1.01 Yes 0
einsteinjs -1.00 Yes 4
ravel -1.00 Yes 6
clinton -0.99 Yes 5
AlexisTocqueville -0.98 Yes 1
Sjens -0.97 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 -0.93 Yes 15
mparrault -0.92 Yes 7
nls -0.83 Yes 10
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 4
malcmur -0.76 Yes 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 6 15

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dkc -1.01 Yes 95
einsteinjs -1.00 Yes 71
ravel -1.00 Yes 12
clinton -0.99 Yes 89
AlexisTocqueville -0.98 Yes 100
Sjens -0.97 Yes 15
patrickmeehan5 -0.93 Yes 90
mparrault -0.92 Yes 45
nls -0.83 Yes 65
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 76
slobodan -0.74 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 69 60

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dkc -1.01 Yes 0
einsteinjs -1.00 Yes 2
ravel -1.00 Yes 1
clinton -0.99 Yes 1
AlexisTocqueville -0.98 Yes 0
Sjens -0.97 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 -0.93 Yes 10
mparrault -0.92 Yes 3
nls -0.83 Yes 1
AndrewSabisky -0.80 Yes 4
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 2
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 8

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dkc -1.01 Yes 15
einsteinjs -1.00 Yes 11
ravel -1.00 Yes 29
paul_the_octopus -1.00 Yes 10
AlexisTocqueville -0.98 Yes 5
Sjens -0.97 Yes 4
patrickmeehan5 -0.93 Yes 50
mparrault -0.92 Yes 15
nls -0.83 Yes 28
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 18
malcmur -0.76 Yes 20
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 19 25

Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dkc -1.01 Yes 5
GeneH -1.00 Yes 15
ravel -1.00 Yes 30
madre -1.00 Yes 8
mparrault -0.92 Yes 10
AndrewSabisky -0.80 Yes 3
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 5
praedico -0.74 Yes 5
slobodan -0.74 Yes 100
Sneaky_Pete531 -0.70 Yes 0
Anneinak -0.70 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 17 18

Asia

Status Question
Finished How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Finished Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Running Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?

Closed: 2

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a plurality No
Plurality No

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 2

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
slobodan -1.45 Yes 100
lsgold7 -0.60 Yes 4
KateWestmoreland -0.54 Yes 0
wanjunli -0.24 Yes 5
yaifuz26 -0.23 Yes 45
morrell -0.23 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Yes 3
Khalid -0.16 Yes 5
Falconer -0.16 Yes 0
dkc -0.15 Yes 0
ckruger -0.15 Yes 1
Scooozai -0.15 Yes 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 16 20

Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
slobodan -1.45 Grace Poe 0
slobodan -1.45 Rodrigo Duterte 89
slobodan -1.45 Mar Roxas 0
slobodan -1.45 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
slobodan -1.45 Jejomar Binay 11
slobodan -1.45 None of the above 0
GeneH -0.35 Grace Poe 60
GeneH -0.35 Rodrigo Duterte 40
GeneH -0.35 Mar Roxas 0
GeneH -0.35 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
GeneH -0.35 Jejomar Binay 0
GeneH -0.35 None of the above 0
redacted -0.31 Grace Poe 99
redacted -0.31 Rodrigo Duterte 0
redacted -0.31 Mar Roxas 0
redacted -0.31 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
redacted -0.31 Jejomar Binay 1
redacted -0.31 None of the above 0
z0k -0.30 Grace Poe 41
z0k -0.30 Rodrigo Duterte 55
z0k -0.30 Mar Roxas 1
z0k -0.30 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
z0k -0.30 Jejomar Binay 3
z0k -0.30 None of the above 0
jpng -0.21 Grace Poe 80
jpng -0.21 Rodrigo Duterte 20
jpng -0.21 Mar Roxas 0
jpng -0.21 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
jpng -0.21 Jejomar Binay 0
jpng -0.21 None of the above 0
Dima K -0.20 Grace Poe 40
Dima K -0.20 Rodrigo Duterte 60
Dima K -0.20 Mar Roxas 0
Dima K -0.20 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Dima K -0.20 Jejomar Binay 0
Dima K -0.20 None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Grace Poe 29
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Rodrigo Duterte 65
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Mar Roxas 2
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Jean-Pierre -0.18 Jejomar Binay 4
Jean-Pierre -0.18 None of the above 0
Gfrizzi -0.17 Grace Poe 30
Gfrizzi -0.17 Rodrigo Duterte 70
Gfrizzi -0.17 Mar Roxas 0
Gfrizzi -0.17 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Gfrizzi -0.17 Jejomar Binay 0
Gfrizzi -0.17 None of the above 0
dada -0.16 Grace Poe 65
dada -0.16 Rodrigo Duterte 35
dada -0.16 Mar Roxas 0
dada -0.16 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
dada -0.16 Jejomar Binay 0
dada -0.16 None of the above 0
dkc -0.15 Grace Poe 70
dkc -0.15 Rodrigo Duterte 30
dkc -0.15 Mar Roxas 0
dkc -0.15 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
dkc -0.15 Jejomar Binay 0
dkc -0.15 None of the above 0
ckruger -0.15 Grace Poe 30
ckruger -0.15 Rodrigo Duterte 70
ckruger -0.15 Mar Roxas 0
ckruger -0.15 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
ckruger -0.15 Jejomar Binay 0
ckruger -0.15 None of the above 0
Scooozai -0.15 Grace Poe 76
Scooozai -0.15 Rodrigo Duterte 15
Scooozai -0.15 Mar Roxas 4
Scooozai -0.15 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
Scooozai -0.15 Jejomar Binay 3
Scooozai -0.15 None of the above 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Grace Poe 52 33
Jejomar Binay 2 17
Mar Roxas 1 1
Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0 0
None of the above 0 0
Rodrigo Duterte 46 49

Capital controls

Status Question
Finished Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?
Finished Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?
Finished Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?
Finished Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?
Finished Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?
Finished Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Finished How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Finished How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?
Finished Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Running Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Running Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Running Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Running Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Running How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Running Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Running Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?
Running How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?
Running In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?

Closed: 12

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Answer: No

Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Answer: Yes

Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Answer: Yes

Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Answer: No

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Branch Answer
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Yes
Someone else from Europe No
Someone from outside Europe No

How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Branch Answer
Four No
None No
One No
Three No
Two Yes

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?
Branch Answer
Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive No
Less than 175,000 Yes
More than 225,000 No

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

Answer: No

Open: 9

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Khalid -2.16 Yes 14
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 0
Clairvoyance -1.76 Yes 5
austerity -1.63 Yes 55
Dima K -1.57 Yes 10
Tom L -1.57 Yes 12
sonac36 -1.54 Yes 13
JMODE -1.47 Yes 10
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 0
einsteinjs -1.44 Yes 4
STLDCA -1.43 Yes 5
dkc -1.37 Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 15 13

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
AJ -2.20 Yes 13
fifty-sixty -2.17 Yes 2
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 0
Clairvoyance -1.76 Yes 0
austerity -1.63 Yes 15
Tom L -1.57 Yes 5
sonac36 -1.54 Yes 4
praedico -1.53 Yes 0
JMODE -1.47 Yes 3
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 0
einsteinjs -1.44 Yes 0
STLDCA -1.43 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 4 2

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 5
Clairvoyance -1.76 Yes 0
austerity -1.63 Yes 20
GeneH -1.60 Yes 1
JMODE -1.47 Yes 1
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 0
Sjens -1.19 Yes 2
Mondak -1.16 Yes 15
Dwight Smith -1.12 Yes 1
dada -0.90 Yes 4
cmeinel -0.86 Yes 5
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 2
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 5 3

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
AJ -2.20 Yes 60
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 13
Clairvoyance -1.76 Yes 0
austerity -1.63 Yes 30
GeneH -1.60 Yes 15
Tom L -1.57 Yes 20
JMODE -1.47 Yes 9
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 7
dkc -1.37 Yes 10
Sjens -1.19 Yes 10
JP -0.94 Yes 30
dada -0.90 Yes 12
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 18 12

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
fifty-sixty -2.17 Above 75 5
fifty-sixty -2.17 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 80
fifty-sixty -2.17 In the top 50 2
fifty-sixty -2.17 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 13
Khalid -2.16 Above 75 0
Khalid -2.16 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 70
Khalid -2.16 In the top 50 5
Khalid -2.16 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
alistaircookie -1.86 Above 75 1
alistaircookie -1.86 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 85
alistaircookie -1.86 In the top 50 0
alistaircookie -1.86 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 14
Clairvoyance -1.76 Above 75 0
Clairvoyance -1.76 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 50
Clairvoyance -1.76 In the top 50 0
Clairvoyance -1.76 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 50
GeneH -1.60 Above 75 0
GeneH -1.60 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 85
GeneH -1.60 In the top 50 0
GeneH -1.60 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 15
sonac36 -1.54 Above 75 5
sonac36 -1.54 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 15
sonac36 -1.54 In the top 50 15
sonac36 -1.54 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 65
praedico -1.53 Above 75 10
praedico -1.53 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 80
praedico -1.53 In the top 50 0
praedico -1.53 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
JMODE -1.47 Above 75 30
JMODE -1.47 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 55
JMODE -1.47 In the top 50 5
JMODE -1.47 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
einsteinjs -1.44 Above 75 0
einsteinjs -1.44 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 67
einsteinjs -1.44 In the top 50 4
einsteinjs -1.44 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 29
dkc -1.37 Above 75 5
dkc -1.37 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 80
dkc -1.37 In the top 50 0
dkc -1.37 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 15
wadowice -1.29 Above 75 70
wadowice -1.29 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 25
wadowice -1.29 In the top 50 0
wadowice -1.29 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 5
jazzyf -1.26 Above 75 25
jazzyf -1.26 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 25
jazzyf -1.26 In the top 50 17
jazzyf -1.26 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 33
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Above 75 13 6
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 24 15
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 60 76
In the top 50 4 3

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Khalid -2.16 Yes 70
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 85
austerity -1.63 Yes 60
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 85
einsteinjs -1.44 Yes 72
RCScheffers -1.22 Yes 40
Rene -1.20 Yes 40
Sjens -1.19 Yes 69
JP -0.94 Yes 75
DariusX -0.90 Yes 50
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 75
mparrault -0.80 Yes 70
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 66 73

Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
fifty-sixty -2.17 Yes 5
Khalid -2.16 Yes 0
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 0
GeneH -1.60 Yes 2
Guydreaux -1.45 Yes 10
STLDCA -1.43 Yes 0
dkc -1.37 Yes 0
RCScheffers -1.22 Yes 2
Rene -1.20 Yes 2
Dwight Smith -1.12 Yes 0
JP -0.94 Yes 5
DariusX -0.90 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 8

How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
RCScheffers -1.22 More than 5,000 2
RCScheffers -1.22 Fewer than 1,200 40
RCScheffers -1.22 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 16
RCScheffers -1.22 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 38
RCScheffers -1.22 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 4
Rene -1.20 More than 5,000 2
Rene -1.20 Fewer than 1,200 40
Rene -1.20 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 16
Rene -1.20 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 38
Rene -1.20 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 4
JP -0.94 More than 5,000 0
JP -0.94 Fewer than 1,200 5
JP -0.94 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 45
JP -0.94 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 40
JP -0.94 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 10
cdob63 -0.80 More than 5,000 1
cdob63 -0.80 Fewer than 1,200 1
cdob63 -0.80 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 42
cdob63 -0.80 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 41
cdob63 -0.80 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 15
mparrault -0.80 More than 5,000 2
mparrault -0.80 Fewer than 1,200 45
mparrault -0.80 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 17
mparrault -0.80 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 25
mparrault -0.80 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 11
ravel -0.78 More than 5,000 20
ravel -0.78 Fewer than 1,200 20
ravel -0.78 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 20
ravel -0.78 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 20
ravel -0.78 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 20
Ossipon -0.47 More than 5,000 0
Ossipon -0.47 Fewer than 1,200 55
Ossipon -0.47 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 10
Ossipon -0.47 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 30
Ossipon -0.47 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 5
Spandrelbarca -0.40 More than 5,000 0
Spandrelbarca -0.40 Fewer than 1,200 30
Spandrelbarca -0.40 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 24
Spandrelbarca -0.40 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 46
Spandrelbarca -0.40 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 0
chackpal -0.32 More than 5,000 1
chackpal -0.32 Fewer than 1,200 45
chackpal -0.32 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 13
chackpal -0.32 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 35
chackpal -0.32 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 6
Free-thinker -0.08 More than 5,000 0
Free-thinker -0.08 Fewer than 1,200 50
Free-thinker -0.08 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 5
Free-thinker -0.08 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 40
Free-thinker -0.08 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 5
paul_the_octopus -0.08 More than 5,000 1
paul_the_octopus -0.08 Fewer than 1,200 46
paul_the_octopus -0.08 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 9
paul_the_octopus -0.08 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 43
paul_the_octopus -0.08 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 1
hakan 0.06 More than 5,000 6
hakan 0.06 Fewer than 1,200 76
hakan 0.06 More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 6
hakan 0.06 Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 6
hakan 0.06 Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 6
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 34 32
Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 7 13
Fewer than 1,200 38 23
More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 19 31
More than 5,000 3 1

In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
alistaircookie -1.86 Yes 15
z0k -1.62 Yes 40
GeneH -1.60 Yes 50
Dima K -1.57 Yes 20
praedico -1.53 Yes 20
RCScheffers -1.22 Yes 55
Rene -1.20 Yes 55
JP -0.94 Yes 55
cdob63 -0.80 Yes 32
mparrault -0.80 Yes 65
ravel -0.78 Yes 67
boz -0.53 Yes 31
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 42 47

China

Status Question
Finished Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?
Running Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Running Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Running Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Running In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China’s “nine-dash line” is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?

Closed: 2

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 4

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
madre -0.47 Yes 85
slobodan -0.46 Yes 100
Jean-Pierre -0.43 Yes 20
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes 33
Lucky -0.41 Yes 75
Clairvoyance -0.41 Yes 0
ckruger -0.41 Yes 25
klin -0.40 Yes 12
morrell -0.40 Yes 10
cmeinel -0.39 Yes 0
austerity -0.38 Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 40 54

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
madre -0.47 Yes 2
slobodan -0.46 Yes 100
Jean-Pierre -0.43 Yes 9
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes 3
Lucky -0.41 Yes 1
Clairvoyance -0.41 Yes 0
ckruger -0.41 Yes 5
klin -0.40 Yes 5
morrell -0.40 Yes 5
cmeinel -0.39 Yes 10
austerity -0.38 Yes 35
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 16 20

Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
madre -0.47 Yes, with both 0
madre -0.47 Yes, with only Iran 1
madre -0.47 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
madre -0.47 No 98
slobodan -0.46 Yes, with both 0
slobodan -0.46 Yes, with only Iran 0
slobodan -0.46 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
slobodan -0.46 No 100
Jean-Pierre -0.43 Yes, with both 1
Jean-Pierre -0.43 Yes, with only Iran 10
Jean-Pierre -0.43 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 4
Jean-Pierre -0.43 No 85
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes, with both 2
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes, with only Iran 0
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
alistaircookie -0.42 No 98
Lucky -0.41 Yes, with both 0
Lucky -0.41 Yes, with only Iran 30
Lucky -0.41 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
Lucky -0.41 No 70
ckruger -0.41 Yes, with both 0
ckruger -0.41 Yes, with only Iran 0
ckruger -0.41 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
ckruger -0.41 No 100
klin -0.40 Yes, with both 25
klin -0.40 Yes, with only Iran 15
klin -0.40 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
klin -0.40 No 60
cmeinel -0.39 Yes, with both 0
cmeinel -0.39 Yes, with only Iran 25
cmeinel -0.39 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cmeinel -0.39 No 75
cdob63 -0.36 Yes, with both 0
cdob63 -0.36 Yes, with only Iran 1
cdob63 -0.36 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
cdob63 -0.36 No 98
Buck Clemons -0.35 Yes, with both 0
Buck Clemons -0.35 Yes, with only Iran 5
Buck Clemons -0.35 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 5
Buck Clemons -0.35 No 90
mparrault -0.34 Yes, with both 1
mparrault -0.34 Yes, with only Iran 5
mparrault -0.34 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 2
mparrault -0.34 No 92
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 88 97
Yes, with both 3 0
Yes, with only Iran 8 3
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1 0

In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China’s “nine-dash line” is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
madre -0.47 Yes 100
slobodan -0.46 Yes 100
alistaircookie -0.42 Yes 99
ckruger -0.41 Yes 99
austerity -0.38 Yes 85
cdob63 -0.36 Yes 93
mparrault -0.34 Yes 87
dkc -0.32 Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 -0.31 Yes 85
Aches -0.29 Yes 85
RCScheffers -0.27 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 93 95

EU

Status Question
Finished Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?
Finished Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?
Running Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Running Who will be the next mayor of London?
Running Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Running Will the European Union suspend any of Poland’s membership rights in 2016?

Closed: 2

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Answer: No

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Answer: Yes

Open: 4

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
slobodan -0.70 Podemos 100
slobodan -0.70 Both 0
slobodan -0.70 Neither 0
slobodan -0.70 Ciudadanos 0
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Podemos 10
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Both 80
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Neither 5
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Ciudadanos 5
Delorean -0.53 Podemos 0
Delorean -0.53 Both 0
Delorean -0.53 Neither 100
Delorean -0.53 Ciudadanos 0
cdob63 -0.49 Podemos 0
cdob63 -0.49 Both 0
cdob63 -0.49 Neither 100
cdob63 -0.49 Ciudadanos 0
admiralporky -0.44 Podemos 40
admiralporky -0.44 Both 40
admiralporky -0.44 Neither 0
admiralporky -0.44 Ciudadanos 20
nls -0.43 Podemos 2
nls -0.43 Both 1
nls -0.43 Neither 95
nls -0.43 Ciudadanos 2
dkc -0.42 Podemos 0
dkc -0.42 Both 0
dkc -0.42 Neither 100
dkc -0.42 Ciudadanos 0
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Podemos 0
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Both 0
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Neither 100
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Ciudadanos 0
TVANKSTA -0.40 Podemos 5
TVANKSTA -0.40 Both 75
TVANKSTA -0.40 Neither 15
TVANKSTA -0.40 Ciudadanos 5
Trevion -0.40 Podemos 25
Trevion -0.40 Both 0
Trevion -0.40 Neither 50
Trevion -0.40 Ciudadanos 25
drofter -0.38 Podemos 0
drofter -0.38 Both 65
drofter -0.38 Neither 35
drofter -0.38 Ciudadanos 0
austerity -0.32 Podemos 10
austerity -0.32 Both 10
austerity -0.32 Neither 80
austerity -0.32 Ciudadanos 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Both 23 6
Ciudadanos 5 1
Neither 57 90
Podemos 16 3

Who will be the next mayor of London?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
slobodan -0.70 Sadiq Khan 100
slobodan -0.70 Zac Goldsmith 0
slobodan -0.70 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Sadiq Khan 99
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Zac Goldsmith 1
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 None of the above 0
clinton -0.57 Sadiq Khan 96
clinton -0.57 Zac Goldsmith 4
clinton -0.57 None of the above 0
Markmsl -0.55 Sadiq Khan 54
Markmsl -0.55 Zac Goldsmith 45
Markmsl -0.55 None of the above 1
Delorean -0.53 Sadiq Khan 94
Delorean -0.53 Zac Goldsmith 6
Delorean -0.53 None of the above 0
JP -0.49 Sadiq Khan 85
JP -0.49 Zac Goldsmith 15
JP -0.49 None of the above 0
cdob63 -0.49 Sadiq Khan 94
cdob63 -0.49 Zac Goldsmith 6
cdob63 -0.49 None of the above 0
bamfman -0.43 Sadiq Khan 45
bamfman -0.43 Zac Goldsmith 0
bamfman -0.43 None of the above 55
nls -0.43 Sadiq Khan 80
nls -0.43 Zac Goldsmith 20
nls -0.43 None of the above 0
dkc -0.42 Sadiq Khan 100
dkc -0.42 Zac Goldsmith 0
dkc -0.42 None of the above 0
ckruger -0.36 Sadiq Khan 100
ckruger -0.36 Zac Goldsmith 0
ckruger -0.36 None of the above 0
z0k -0.35 Sadiq Khan 95
z0k -0.35 Zac Goldsmith 5
z0k -0.35 None of the above 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
None of the above 5 0
Sadiq Khan 87 87
Zac Goldsmith 9 13

Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
patrickmeehan5 -0.69 Yes 95
clinton -0.57 Yes 91
Markmsl -0.55 Yes 75
Delorean -0.53 Yes 95
searchlight -0.51 Yes 86
scholarandcat -0.50 Yes 83
JP -0.49 Yes 85
cdob63 -0.49 Yes 75
nls -0.43 Yes 95
dkc -0.42 Yes 100
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Yes 95
rustam62 -0.41 Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 88 73

Will the European Union suspend any of Poland’s membership rights in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
slobodan -0.70 Yes 0
clinton -0.57 Yes 0
scholarandcat -0.50 Yes 1
cdob63 -0.49 Yes 1
nls -0.43 Yes 8
dkc -0.42 Yes 0
sevedb@mac.com -0.41 Yes 5
drofter -0.38 Yes 5
ckruger -0.36 Yes 0
REGallahue -0.35 Yes 1
samboduckworth -0.34 Yes 2
AndrewSabisky -0.31 Yes 2
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 3

Entertainment

Status Question
Finished ???
Finished Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?
Finished Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Finished Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Finished Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
Running Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Running Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Running Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Running Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Running Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Running Will “Captain America: Civil War” gross more in its opening weekend in the US than “Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice” did?

Closed: 5

???

Answer: Yes

Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Answer: No

Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Branch Answer
Flipsies™ Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser No
Laser Maze™ Jr. No
Makey Makey Classic No
Meccanoid G15 Yes
MiPosaur No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator No
i-loom No

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Branch Answer
Bridge of Spies No
Brooklyn No
Mad Max: Fury Road No
Room No
Spotlight Yes
The Big Short No
The Martian No
The Revenant No

Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 6

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
praedico -1.78 Yes 5
GJDrew -1.45 Yes 8
slobodan -0.89 Yes 1
Amir -0.88 Yes 3
Raisinville -0.69 Yes 0
ben -0.59 Yes 45
ESR -0.48 Yes 3
austerity -0.42 Yes 20
Cora -0.37 Yes 0
cdob63 -0.36 Yes 1
barry-johnson -0.29 Yes 20
Matba -0.27 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 9 29

Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
GJDrew -1.45 Glenn 47
GJDrew -1.45 All of the above will survive season 6 27
GJDrew -1.45 Rick 1
GJDrew -1.45 Carl 1
GJDrew -1.45 Carol 1
GJDrew -1.45 Daryl 23
slobodan -0.89 Glenn 0
slobodan -0.89 All of the above will survive season 6 100
slobodan -0.89 Rick 0
slobodan -0.89 Carl 0
slobodan -0.89 Carol 0
slobodan -0.89 Daryl 0
Amir -0.88 Glenn 16
Amir -0.88 All of the above will survive season 6 40
Amir -0.88 Rick 9
Amir -0.88 Carl 10
Amir -0.88 Carol 15
Amir -0.88 Daryl 10
jllovett -0.80 Glenn 45
jllovett -0.80 All of the above will survive season 6 0
jllovett -0.80 Rick 0
jllovett -0.80 Carl 0
jllovett -0.80 Carol 55
jllovett -0.80 Daryl 0
s3rndpt -0.76 Glenn 0
s3rndpt -0.76 All of the above will survive season 6 5
s3rndpt -0.76 Rick 0
s3rndpt -0.76 Carl 65
s3rndpt -0.76 Carol 25
s3rndpt -0.76 Daryl 5
Delorean -0.73 Glenn 30
Delorean -0.73 All of the above will survive season 6 15
Delorean -0.73 Rick 0
Delorean -0.73 Carl 0
Delorean -0.73 Carol 0
Delorean -0.73 Daryl 55
adlloyd -0.69 Glenn 60
adlloyd -0.69 All of the above will survive season 6 25
adlloyd -0.69 Rick 0
adlloyd -0.69 Carl 5
adlloyd -0.69 Carol 10
adlloyd -0.69 Daryl 0
Raisinville -0.69 Glenn 10
Raisinville -0.69 All of the above will survive season 6 60
Raisinville -0.69 Rick 10
Raisinville -0.69 Carl 10
Raisinville -0.69 Carol 0
Raisinville -0.69 Daryl 10
ben -0.59 Glenn 30
ben -0.59 All of the above will survive season 6 30
ben -0.59 Rick 0
ben -0.59 Carl 0
ben -0.59 Carol 25
ben -0.59 Daryl 15
JP -0.52 Glenn 30
JP -0.52 All of the above will survive season 6 15
JP -0.52 Rick 0
JP -0.52 Carl 25
JP -0.52 Carol 0
JP -0.52 Daryl 30
brian -0.50 Glenn 5
brian -0.50 All of the above will survive season 6 92
brian -0.50 Rick 0
brian -0.50 Carl 0
brian -0.50 Carol 1
brian -0.50 Daryl 2
Modog814 -0.49 Glenn 0
Modog814 -0.49 All of the above will survive season 6 100
Modog814 -0.49 Rick 0
Modog814 -0.49 Carl 0
Modog814 -0.49 Carol 0
Modog814 -0.49 Daryl 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
All of the above will survive season 6 42 30
Carl 10 6
Carol 11 5
Daryl 13 15
Glenn 23 40
Rick 2 4

Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
praedico -1.78 Yes 0
GJDrew -1.45 Yes 15
eoffit -1.05 Yes 5
slobodan -0.89 Yes 5
Amir -0.88 Yes 3
mhigenyi -0.72 Yes 5
Raisinville -0.69 Yes 3
ben -0.59 Yes 15
JP -0.52 Yes 0
justintranjt -0.49 Yes 6
NickLutz -0.41 Yes 20
cmeinel -0.38 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 7 12

Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
praedico -1.78 Yes 0
GJDrew -1.45 Yes 0
craigellan -1.14 Yes 1
eoffit -1.05 Yes 2
Khalid -1.04 Yes 0
lfernandes -0.96 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -0.95 Yes 0
slobodan -0.89 Yes 0
Amir -0.88 Yes 0
Dilamarter -0.85 Yes 3
s3rndpt -0.76 Yes 0
Delorean -0.73 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 1 0

Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
GJDrew -1.45 Yes 9
Firedog -0.91 Yes 52
slobodan -0.89 Yes 0
Amir -0.88 Yes 49
Kevin23 -0.83 Yes 8
s3rndpt -0.76 Yes 0
Delorean -0.73 Yes 10
Raisinville -0.69 Yes 0
TRFBruce -0.69 Yes 5
JP -0.52 Yes 5
wlmsears -0.52 Yes 5
justintranjt -0.49 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 13 19

Will “Captain America: Civil War” gross more in its opening weekend in the US than “Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice” did?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
praedico -1.78 Yes 95
GJDrew -1.45 Yes 70
eoffit -1.05 Yes 99
Khalid -1.04 Yes 85
slobodan -0.89 Yes 0
Delorean -0.73 Yes 60
mhigenyi -0.72 Yes 90
Raisinville -0.69 Yes 95
journ001 -0.62 Yes 95
JP -0.52 Yes 99
Modog814 -0.49 Yes 90
cdob63 -0.36 Yes 96
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 81 86

Environment

Status Question
Finished Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?
Running Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Running Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Running When will clinical human trials for a Zika vaccine begin?
Running Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?
Running ???

Closed: 1

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 5

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Delorean -0.12 Yes 94
Clairvoyance -0.12 Yes 100
alistaircookie -0.12 Yes 66
Gfrizzi -0.12 Yes 96
dkc -0.12 Yes 95
clinton -0.12 Yes 89
ravel -0.12 Yes 78
Khalid -0.12 Yes 85
REGallahue -0.12 Yes 88
argon1 -0.12 Yes 90
morrell -0.12 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 88 66

Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Delorean -0.12 Yes 4
alistaircookie -0.12 Yes 0
tom.prigg -0.12 Yes 1
Gfrizzi -0.12 Yes 2
clinton -0.12 Yes 0
ravel -0.12 Yes 9
Dima K -0.12 Yes 0
Khalid -0.12 Yes 5
REGallahue -0.12 Yes 3
argon1 -0.12 Yes 0
morrell -0.12 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 10

When will clinical human trials for a Zika vaccine begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
tom.prigg -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 5
tom.prigg -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
tom.prigg -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 95
AlexisTocqueville -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 0
AlexisTocqueville -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
AlexisTocqueville -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 100
Gfrizzi -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 0
Gfrizzi -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
Gfrizzi -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 100
dkc -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 0
dkc -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
dkc -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 100
clinton -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 1
clinton -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
clinton -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 99
ravel -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 0
ravel -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
ravel -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 100
Dima K -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 1
Dima K -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
Dima K -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 99
Khalid -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 12
Khalid -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 3
Khalid -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 85
REGallahue -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 4
REGallahue -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 0
REGallahue -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 96
morrell -0.12 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 8
morrell -0.12 Not before 1 July 2017 2
morrell -0.12 Before 1 January 2017 90
cdob63 -0.11 Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 23
cdob63 -0.11 Not before 1 July 2017 1
cdob63 -0.11 Before 1 January 2017 76
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Before 1 January 2017 95 82
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017 5 14
Not before 1 July 2017 1 4

Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
alistaircookie -0.12 Yes 0
clinton -0.12 Yes 98
ravel -0.12 Yes 82
Dima K -0.12 Yes 70
Khalid -0.12 Yes 35
cdob63 -0.11 Yes 47
taxesa1 -0.11 Yes 75
Amir -0.11 Yes 95
Cora -0.10 Yes 50
mparrault -0.10 Yes 35
kormac -0.10 Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 60 67

???
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
alistaircookie -0.12 Yes 0
tom.prigg -0.12 Yes 0
Gfrizzi -0.12 Yes 2
ravel -0.12 Yes 7
REGallahue -0.12 Yes 12
cdob63 -0.11 Yes 5
Flyn1200 -0.11 Yes 0
taxesa1 -0.11 Yes 5
Amir -0.11 Yes 95
mparrault -0.10 Yes 17
kormac -0.10 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 14 29

Iran

Status Question
Finished Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?
Finished Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Finished Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Finished Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?
Finished Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?
Finished Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?
Finished Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?
Finished When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Finished Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?
Finished Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Running Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Running Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Running Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?
Running Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Running Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Running Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?
Running Will a candidate included on the “List of Hope” or the “People’s Expert’s List” be elected as the next chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts?

Closed: 10

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Branch Answer
No Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand No

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

Answer: Yes

Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

Answer: Yes

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Branch Answer
Before 1 March 2016 Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive No
Not before 1 July 2016 No

Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Answer: Yes

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 7

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
clinton -3.08 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -2.77 Yes 1
einsteinjs -2.17 Yes 0
Clairvoyance -2.16 Yes 0
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 0
austerity -1.90 Yes 5
UnderwaterPutin -1.39 Yes 0
Khalid -1.30 Yes 0
john27 -1.14 Yes 5
wlmsears -1.13 Yes 15
mparrault -1.11 Yes 1
scholarandcat -1.06 Yes 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 0

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
clinton -3.08 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -2.77 Yes 1
Clairvoyance -2.16 Yes 0
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 4
austerity -1.90 Yes 10
UnderwaterPutin -1.39 Yes 0
Khalid -1.30 Yes 0
john27 -1.14 Yes 20
wlmsears -1.13 Yes 25
mparrault -1.11 Yes 2
ghighcove -1.10 Yes 70
ESR -1.10 Yes 4
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 11 1

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
clinton -3.08 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -2.77 Yes 85
einsteinjs -2.17 Yes 0
Clairvoyance -2.16 Yes 0
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 0
travelershope -1.40 Yes 35
UnderwaterPutin -1.39 Yes 75
Khalid -1.30 Yes 0
john27 -1.14 Yes 95
mparrault -1.11 Yes 90
scholarandcat -1.06 Yes 50
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes 50
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 40 78

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
einsteinjs -2.17 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
einsteinjs -2.17 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 14
einsteinjs -2.17 No 86
Anneinak -1.96 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 2
Anneinak -1.96 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 3
Anneinak -1.96 No 95
Khalid -1.30 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 15
Khalid -1.30 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Khalid -1.30 No 75
mparrault -1.11 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
mparrault -1.11 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 7
mparrault -1.11 No 88
scholarandcat -1.06 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 8
scholarandcat -1.06 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 8
scholarandcat -1.06 No 84
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
Jean-Pierre -0.94 No 90
Travist -0.92 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
Travist -0.92 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
Travist -0.92 No 100
Delorean -0.84 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
Delorean -0.84 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
Delorean -0.84 No 95
Randy -0.75 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 50
Randy -0.75 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 40
Randy -0.75 No 10
Karl -0.71 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 2
Karl -0.71 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 3
Karl -0.71 No 95
aravindms -0.67 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
aravindms -0.67 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 20
aravindms -0.67 No 80
fatalis -0.65 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
fatalis -0.65 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 45
fatalis -0.65 No 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 79 88
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 13 6
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 7 6

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
clinton -3.08 Yes 0
einsteinjs -2.17 Yes 0
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 0
austerity -1.90 Yes 20
UnderwaterPutin -1.39 Yes 0
Khalid -1.30 Yes 0
mparrault -1.11 Yes 1
scholarandcat -1.06 Yes 0
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes 0
Travist -0.92 Yes 0
Delorean -0.84 Yes 0
AliceLeft -0.76 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 0

Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 5
UnderwaterPutin -1.39 Yes 0
Khalid -1.30 Yes 0
mparrault -1.11 Yes 15
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes 49
Dwight Smith -0.72 Yes 5
boz -0.72 Yes 16
praedico -0.67 Yes 0
REGallahue -0.63 Yes 18
AndrewSabisky -0.46 Yes 37
Ossipon -0.45 Yes 1
BlueSteel -0.27 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 13 16

Will a candidate included on the “List of Hope” or the “People’s Expert’s List” be elected as the next chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Anneinak -1.96 Yes 88
Khalid -1.30 Yes 90
mparrault -1.11 Yes 70
Jean-Pierre -0.94 Yes 80
Randy -0.75 Yes 85
praedico -0.67 Yes 75
chackpal -0.50 Yes 85
morrell -0.50 Yes 80
hauptdan -0.36 Yes 85
dkc -0.24 Yes 95
hakan -0.24 Yes 85
vickm -0.12 Yes 80
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 83 63

Latin America

Status Question
Finished Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Finished Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Finished Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?
Running Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Running Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?
Running Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?
Running Will Haiti hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016?

Closed: 3

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Branch Answer
Daniel Scioli No
Mauricio Macri Yes
Sergio Massa No
Someone else No

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

Answer: No

Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Answer: No

Open: 4

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
ogross -1.51 Yes 20
boz -0.91 Yes 2
dada -0.85 Yes 0
jkbick -0.75 Yes 10
Dima K -0.75 Yes 1
slobodan -0.71 Yes 1
austerity -0.63 Yes 5
fifty-sixty -0.57 Yes 8
Mroochyslav -0.56 Yes 67
Anneinak -0.56 Yes 22
cmeinel -0.55 Yes 15
k13rkeg44rd -0.52 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 13 4

Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
ogross -1.51 Yes 45
boz -0.91 Yes 46
dada -0.85 Yes 65
jkbick -0.75 Yes 70
Dima K -0.75 Yes 60
slobodan -0.71 Yes 100
austerity -0.63 Yes 40
Anneinak -0.56 Yes 5
AndrewSabisky -0.48 Yes 48
mparrault -0.47 Yes 60
lindsey -0.41 Yes 40
dkc -0.40 Yes 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 50 65

Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
boz -0.91 Yes 63
jkbick -0.75 Yes 90
slobodan -0.71 Yes 100
austerity -0.63 Yes 60
Mroochyslav -0.56 Yes 71
Anneinak -0.56 Yes 72
AndrewSabisky -0.48 Yes 21
mparrault -0.47 Yes 80
dkc -0.40 Yes 65
makertaker -0.40 Yes 65
Guydreaux -0.35 Yes 85
Ossipon -0.32 Yes 51
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 69 72

Will Haiti hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
boz -0.91 Yes 7
slobodan -0.71 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -0.57 Yes 0
Anneinak -0.56 Yes 0
k13rkeg44rd -0.52 Yes 0
jlnado -0.51 Yes 0
AndrewSabisky -0.48 Yes 0
mparrault -0.47 Yes 5
lindsey -0.41 Yes 0
dkc -0.40 Yes 0
Julius -0.24 Yes 0
denniswalsh05 -0.22 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 1 0

Markets

Status Question
Finished What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Finished What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Finished Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Finished Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?
Finished Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
Running What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Running Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Running Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Running What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?

Closed: 5

What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Branch Answer
6.40 or more Yes
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive No
Less than 6.30 No
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 No

What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Branch Answer
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive Yes
Less than $34.00 per barrel No
More than $40.00 per barrel No

Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Branch Answer
Adam Bain No
Anthony Noto No
Jack Dorsey Yes
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year No
Someone else No

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

Answer: No

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

Answer: No

Open: 4

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
malcmur -0.96 More than 250,000 65
malcmur -0.96 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 35
malcmur -0.96 Less than 125,000 0
jb2willis -0.85 More than 250,000 80
jb2willis -0.85 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 15
jb2willis -0.85 Less than 125,000 5
BronzedWailer -0.59 More than 250,000 24
BronzedWailer -0.59 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 66
BronzedWailer -0.59 Less than 125,000 10
RW -0.59 More than 250,000 10
RW -0.59 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 90
RW -0.59 Less than 125,000 0
rbertoni01 -0.59 More than 250,000 8
rbertoni01 -0.59 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 84
rbertoni01 -0.59 Less than 125,000 8
GJDrew -0.51 More than 250,000 32
GJDrew -0.51 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 68
GJDrew -0.51 Less than 125,000 0
nerzhin -0.48 More than 250,000 25
nerzhin -0.48 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 70
nerzhin -0.48 Less than 125,000 5
Nick Clark -0.38 More than 250,000 94
Nick Clark -0.38 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 5
Nick Clark -0.38 Less than 125,000 1
mparrault -0.37 More than 250,000 35
mparrault -0.37 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 60
mparrault -0.37 Less than 125,000 5
erikvold -0.37 More than 250,000 10
erikvold -0.37 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 85
erikvold -0.37 Less than 125,000 5
vielmajose -0.35 More than 250,000 100
vielmajose -0.35 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
vielmajose -0.35 Less than 125,000 0
Jcotton -0.32 More than 250,000 20
Jcotton -0.32 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 80
Jcotton -0.32 Less than 125,000 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 55 57
Less than 125,000 3 11
More than 250,000 42 32

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
bodipb -1.04 Yes 0
wlmsears -0.97 Yes 0
malcmur -0.96 Yes 0
JJMLP -0.86 Yes 35
Raybeve -0.82 Yes 12
Woodcroc -0.71 Yes 15
Fujiko -0.70 Yes 0
jester -0.65 Yes 5
jayem131 -0.57 Yes 80
GJDrew -0.51 Yes 1
Hobart -0.47 Yes 100
Khalid -0.45 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 21 2

Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
wlmsears -0.97 Yes 2
malcmur -0.96 Yes 0
petergreen -0.85 Yes 2
GL2814 -0.78 Yes 0
khoshea -0.67 Yes 10
jester -0.65 Yes 5
theramster -0.63 Yes 0
GJDrew -0.51 Yes 2
AnalyticalThinker -0.49 Yes 0
Khalid -0.45 Yes 0
Nick Clark -0.38 Yes 2
mparrault -0.37 Yes 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 2 0

What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
malcmur -0.96 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 35
malcmur -0.96 Less than 6.40 10
malcmur -0.96 6.80 or more 15
malcmur -0.96 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 40
luojun -0.65 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 25
luojun -0.65 Less than 6.40 5
luojun -0.65 6.80 or more 5
luojun -0.65 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 65
mparrault -0.37 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 20
mparrault -0.37 Less than 6.40 15
mparrault -0.37 6.80 or more 10
mparrault -0.37 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 55
rockytop00 -0.27 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 0
rockytop00 -0.27 Less than 6.40 100
rockytop00 -0.27 6.80 or more 0
rockytop00 -0.27 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 0
The_Gnome -0.26 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 20
The_Gnome -0.26 Less than 6.40 3
The_Gnome -0.26 6.80 or more 3
The_Gnome -0.26 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 74
dylbyl25 -0.22 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 35
dylbyl25 -0.22 Less than 6.40 0
dylbyl25 -0.22 6.80 or more 15
dylbyl25 -0.22 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 50
Piddan -0.20 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 30
Piddan -0.20 Less than 6.40 0
Piddan -0.20 6.80 or more 70
Piddan -0.20 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 0
Crappyforecast -0.18 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 40
Crappyforecast -0.18 Less than 6.40 5
Crappyforecast -0.18 6.80 or more 10
Crappyforecast -0.18 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 45
austerity -0.16 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 45
austerity -0.16 Less than 6.40 5
austerity -0.16 6.80 or more 20
austerity -0.16 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 30
anthony_nyc -0.15 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 40
anthony_nyc -0.15 Less than 6.40 5
anthony_nyc -0.15 6.80 or more 25
anthony_nyc -0.15 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 30
jmenegay -0.10 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 70
jmenegay -0.10 Less than 6.40 3
jmenegay -0.10 6.80 or more 20
jmenegay -0.10 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 7
nls -0.08 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 48
nls -0.08 Less than 6.40 6
nls -0.08 6.80 or more 6
nls -0.08 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 40
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
6.80 or more 17 17
Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 36 44
Less than 6.40 13 9
More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 34 30

Middle East

Status Question
Finished How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Running Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Running Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Running Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Running Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Running Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

Closed: 1

How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Branch Answer
A majority Yes
A plurality No
Not a plurality No

Open: 5

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, Someone else 0
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Raisinville -0.97 No 100
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, Someone else 0
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 30
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 30
admiralporky -0.77 No 40
ccameron -0.67 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 1
ccameron -0.67 Yes, Someone else 2
ccameron -0.67 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
ccameron -0.67 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1
ccameron -0.67 No 95
Gor999 -0.60 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 24
Gor999 -0.60 Yes, Someone else 2
Gor999 -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 35
Gor999 -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 14
Gor999 -0.60 No 25
974david -0.60 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
974david -0.60 Yes, Someone else 0
974david -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
974david -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
974david -0.60 No 99
jlnado -0.60 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
jlnado -0.60 Yes, Someone else 0
jlnado -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
jlnado -0.60 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
jlnado -0.60 No 100
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, Someone else 0
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
markusbehrend -0.57 No 100
Costarican -0.55 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Costarican -0.55 Yes, Someone else 0
Costarican -0.55 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Costarican -0.55 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Costarican -0.55 No 100
Lucky -0.54 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Lucky -0.54 Yes, Someone else 0
Lucky -0.54 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Lucky -0.54 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Lucky -0.54 No 100
Kleto -0.54 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Kleto -0.54 Yes, Someone else 0
Kleto -0.54 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Kleto -0.54 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Kleto -0.54 No 100
Ziggy -0.53 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Ziggy -0.53 Yes, Someone else 0
Ziggy -0.53 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
Ziggy -0.53 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Ziggy -0.53 No 95
hyperionok -0.50 Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
hyperionok -0.50 Yes, Someone else 2
hyperionok -0.50 Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
hyperionok -0.50 Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
hyperionok -0.50 No 98
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 88 92
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 6 4
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4 4
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 2 0
Yes, Someone else 1 0

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
okhope18 -1.25 Yes 1
Raisinville -0.97 Yes 3
KSpain -0.87 Yes 50
admiralporky -0.77 Yes 22
hyperionok -0.50 Yes 35
Rene -0.48 Yes 2
Angturil -0.45 Yes 25
CT Runner -0.45 Yes 20
Amir -0.45 Yes 0
Marius -0.43 Yes 0
Antacular -0.41 Yes 5
kormac -0.32 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 14 7

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, only Article 5 0
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Raisinville -0.97 Yes, only Article 4 0
Raisinville -0.97 No 100
KSpain -0.87 Yes, only Article 5 0
KSpain -0.87 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5
KSpain -0.87 Yes, only Article 4 10
KSpain -0.87 No 85
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, only Article 5 5
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 15
admiralporky -0.77 Yes, only Article 4 80
admiralporky -0.77 No 0
Agent0090 -0.71 Yes, only Article 5 1
Agent0090 -0.71 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Agent0090 -0.71 Yes, only Article 4 3
Agent0090 -0.71 No 96
974david -0.60 Yes, only Article 5 0
974david -0.60 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 15
974david -0.60 Yes, only Article 4 0
974david -0.60 No 85
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, only Article 5 0
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes, only Article 4 80
markusbehrend -0.57 No 20
Rene -0.48 Yes, only Article 5 0
Rene -0.48 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Rene -0.48 Yes, only Article 4 0
Rene -0.48 No 100
CT Runner -0.45 Yes, only Article 5 30
CT Runner -0.45 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 30
CT Runner -0.45 Yes, only Article 4 20
CT Runner -0.45 No 20
Amir -0.45 Yes, only Article 5 0
Amir -0.45 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Amir -0.45 Yes, only Article 4 0
Amir -0.45 No 100
Marius -0.43 Yes, only Article 5 0
Marius -0.43 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Marius -0.43 Yes, only Article 4 10
Marius -0.43 No 90
Antacular -0.41 Yes, only Article 5 10
Antacular -0.41 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5
Antacular -0.41 Yes, only Article 4 40
Antacular -0.41 No 45
InVinoVeritas -0.34 Yes, only Article 5 0
InVinoVeritas -0.34 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
InVinoVeritas -0.34 Yes, only Article 4 75
InVinoVeritas -0.34 No 25
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 64 83
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 6 2
Yes, only Article 4 27 14
Yes, only Article 5 4 1

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
KSpain -0.87 Yes 20
admiralporky -0.77 Yes 70
Rene -0.48 Yes 2
CT Runner -0.45 Yes 70
Amir -0.45 Yes 0
Marius -0.43 Yes 40
Antacular -0.41 Yes 82
kormac -0.32 Yes 30
nls -0.25 Yes 3
AlexisTocqueville -0.21 Yes 5
BlackJackBones -0.04 Yes 61
Clairvoyance -0.04 Yes 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 32 19

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
okhope18 -1.25 Yes 15
Raisinville -0.97 Yes 5
KSpain -0.87 Yes 75
admiralporky -0.77 Yes 80
Agent0090 -0.71 Yes 75
Gor999 -0.60 Yes 15
markusbehrend -0.57 Yes 70
Rene -0.48 Yes 15
Angturil -0.45 Yes 100
Amir -0.45 Yes 0
anilboz -0.44 Yes 90
Traindoc -0.35 Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 50 45

North America

Status Question
Finished Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Finished Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Closed: 2

Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Branch Answer
Conservative No
Liberal Yes
New Democratic Party No
Other No

Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Answer: No

Open: 0

North Korea

Status Question
Finished Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?
Finished Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?
Finished Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?
Running Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Running Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
Running Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?

Closed: 3

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

Open: 4

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dowser -1.30 Yes 65
slobodan -1.15 Yes 100
petth -1.10 Yes 25
Anneinak -0.90 Yes 100
clinton -0.86 Yes 99
austerity -0.86 Yes 70
cdob63 -0.83 Yes 13
lsgold7 -0.82 Yes 100
Clairvoyance -0.79 Yes 25
ravel -0.79 Yes 88
redacted -0.77 Yes 99
morrell -0.76 Yes 50
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 70 75

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dowser -1.30 Yes 0
slobodan -1.15 Yes 0
petth -1.10 Yes 15
Anneinak -0.90 Yes 0
clinton -0.86 Yes 1
austerity -0.86 Yes 30
cdob63 -0.83 Yes 11
lsgold7 -0.82 Yes 3
Clairvoyance -0.79 Yes 0
ravel -0.79 Yes 2
redacted -0.77 Yes 6
morrell -0.76 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 6 4

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dowser -1.30 Yes 40
slobodan -1.15 Yes 100
petth -1.10 Yes 25
Anneinak -0.90 Yes 11
clinton -0.86 Yes 100
austerity -0.86 Yes 80
cdob63 -0.83 Yes 22
lsgold7 -0.82 Yes 25
ravel -0.79 Yes 27
redacted -0.77 Yes 13
morrell -0.76 Yes 15
aaseawaf15 -0.72 Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 43 46

Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
dowser -1.30 Yes 10
slobodan -1.15 Yes 100
Anneinak -0.90 Yes 0
clinton -0.86 Yes 8
austerity -0.86 Yes 70
cdob63 -0.83 Yes 24
lsgold7 -0.82 Yes 0
ravel -0.79 Yes 20
morrell -0.76 Yes 8
scholarandcat -0.76 Yes 12
aaseawaf15 -0.72 Yes 75
Sjens -0.71 Yes 70
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 33 31

Russia

Status Question
Finished Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?
Finished How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Finished Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?
Finished Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
Running How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Running Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Running Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Running Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Running Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Running Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Running Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Running How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

Closed: 5

Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a Plurality No
Plurality No

Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

Answer: No

Open: 8

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
malcmur -1.69 More than five, but less than all 1
malcmur -1.69 0 85
malcmur -1.69 All 3
malcmur -1.69 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 11
Jean-Pierre -1.56 More than five, but less than all 5
Jean-Pierre -1.56 0 80
Jean-Pierre -1.56 All 5
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 10
fifty-sixty -1.19 More than five, but less than all 4
fifty-sixty -1.19 0 90
fifty-sixty -1.19 All 1
fifty-sixty -1.19 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 5
TVANKSTA -1.00 More than five, but less than all 85
TVANKSTA -1.00 0 5
TVANKSTA -1.00 All 5
TVANKSTA -1.00 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 5
Bdelaney -0.94 More than five, but less than all 2
Bdelaney -0.94 0 75
Bdelaney -0.94 All 0
Bdelaney -0.94 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 23
Ioana -0.91 More than five, but less than all 15
Ioana -0.91 0 0
Ioana -0.91 All 0
Ioana -0.91 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 85
JP -0.87 More than five, but less than all 0
JP -0.87 0 70
JP -0.87 All 0
JP -0.87 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 30
Clairvoyance -0.81 More than five, but less than all 0
Clairvoyance -0.81 0 90
Clairvoyance -0.81 All 0
Clairvoyance -0.81 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 10
Titan7160 -0.79 More than five, but less than all 0
Titan7160 -0.79 0 80
Titan7160 -0.79 All 0
Titan7160 -0.79 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 20
christianmaas -0.75 More than five, but less than all 0
christianmaas -0.75 0 70
christianmaas -0.75 All 0
christianmaas -0.75 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 30
Liza -0.74 More than five, but less than all 0
Liza -0.74 0 95
Liza -0.74 All 0
Liza -0.74 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 5
evonukd -0.72 More than five, but less than all 10
evonukd -0.72 0 25
evonukd -0.72 All 10
evonukd -0.72 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
0 64 51
All 2 1
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 24 16
More than five, but less than all 10 32

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Falconer -2.40 Yes 5
malcmur -1.69 Yes 1
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Yes 0
fifty-sixty -1.19 Yes 5
TVANKSTA -1.00 Yes 15
Bdelaney -0.94 Yes 25
JP -0.87 Yes 9
boz -0.84 Yes 7
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes 65
Wagle -0.75 Yes 20
christianmaas -0.75 Yes 11
GeneH -0.71 Yes 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 14 21

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Falconer -2.40 Yes 0
malcmur -1.69 Yes 5
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Yes 10
dkc -1.26 Yes 90
fifty-sixty -1.19 Yes 21
Bdelaney -0.94 Yes 20
Ioana -0.91 Yes 60
boz -0.84 Yes 28
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes 15
Wagle -0.75 Yes 35
christianmaas -0.75 Yes 11
austerity -0.70 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 25 27

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Falconer -2.40 Yes 100
malcmur -1.69 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Yes 9
dkc -1.26 Yes 0
JP -0.87 Yes 2
boz -0.84 Yes 24
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes 0
christianmaas -0.75 Yes 25
GeneH -0.71 Yes 19
austerity -0.70 Yes 20
scholarandcat -0.69 Yes 8
RCScheffers -0.65 Yes 12
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 19 33

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
malcmur -1.69 Yes 15
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Yes 10
dkc -1.26 Yes 15
fifty-sixty -1.19 Yes 5
Bdelaney -0.94 Yes 15
JP -0.87 Yes 1
boz -0.84 Yes 23
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes 0
christianmaas -0.75 Yes 35
GeneH -0.71 Yes 2
austerity -0.70 Yes 5
andreskull -0.69 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 11 31

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Falconer -2.40 Yes 0
malcmur -1.69 Yes 3
Jean-Pierre -1.56 Yes 1
dkc -1.26 Yes 0
JP -0.87 Yes 0
boz -0.84 Yes 7
christianmaas -0.75 Yes 4
GeneH -0.71 Yes 1
austerity -0.70 Yes 25
scholarandcat -0.69 Yes 3
RCScheffers -0.65 Yes 2
RF -0.63 Yes 20
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 6 20

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Falconer -2.40 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
Falconer -2.40 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Falconer -2.40 No 100
malcmur -1.69 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
malcmur -1.69 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
malcmur -1.69 No 100
dkc -1.26 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
dkc -1.26 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
dkc -1.26 No 100
fifty-sixty -1.19 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
fifty-sixty -1.19 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
fifty-sixty -1.19 No 100
boz -0.84 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
boz -0.84 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
boz -0.84 No 100
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
Clairvoyance -0.81 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Clairvoyance -0.81 No 100
christianmaas -0.75 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
christianmaas -0.75 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
christianmaas -0.75 No 100
GeneH -0.71 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
GeneH -0.71 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
GeneH -0.71 No 100
austerity -0.70 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
austerity -0.70 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
austerity -0.70 No 100
scholarandcat -0.69 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
scholarandcat -0.69 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
scholarandcat -0.69 No 100
Rote -0.67 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
Rote -0.67 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Rote -0.67 No 100
rand0m -0.65 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
rand0m -0.65 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
rand0m -0.65 No 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 100 94
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0 0
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0 6

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
malcmur -1.69 Less than half 15
malcmur -1.69 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 70
malcmur -1.69 At least two-thirds of all seats 15
dkc -1.26 Less than half 2
dkc -1.26 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 95
dkc -1.26 At least two-thirds of all seats 3
Bdelaney -0.94 Less than half 0
Bdelaney -0.94 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 75
Bdelaney -0.94 At least two-thirds of all seats 25
JP -0.87 Less than half 25
JP -0.87 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 65
JP -0.87 At least two-thirds of all seats 10
christianmaas -0.75 Less than half 22
christianmaas -0.75 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 70
christianmaas -0.75 At least two-thirds of all seats 8
GeneH -0.71 Less than half 0
GeneH -0.71 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 80
GeneH -0.71 At least two-thirds of all seats 20
austerity -0.70 Less than half 15
austerity -0.70 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 70
austerity -0.70 At least two-thirds of all seats 15
KSpain -0.62 Less than half 0
KSpain -0.62 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 20
KSpain -0.62 At least two-thirds of all seats 80
Scooozai -0.56 Less than half 8
Scooozai -0.56 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 73
Scooozai -0.56 At least two-thirds of all seats 19
sh517 -0.53 Less than half 0
sh517 -0.53 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 90
sh517 -0.53 At least two-thirds of all seats 10
Sjens -0.52 Less than half 1
Sjens -0.52 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 77
Sjens -0.52 At least two-thirds of all seats 22
jkbick -0.45 Less than half 5
jkbick -0.45 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 75
jkbick -0.45 At least two-thirds of all seats 20
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
At least one-half but less than two-thirds 72 54
At least two-thirds of all seats 21 31
Less than half 8 15

Sports

Status Question
Finished Who will win the World Series?
Finished Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?
Finished Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship?
Running Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Running Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?

Closed: 3

Who will win the World Series?
Branch Answer
A team from the American League Yes
A team from the National League No

Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?

Answer: No

Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship?
Branch Answer
North Carolina No
Oklahoma No
Syracuse No
Villanova Yes

Open: 2

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
petergreen -1.26 Yes 100
Raisinville -0.97 Yes 100
Rebel ran riot -0.90 Yes 99
JP -0.81 Yes 100
Heffalump -0.72 Yes 94
einsteinjs -0.71 Yes 100
kormac -0.70 Yes 100
dada -0.69 Yes 99
hyperionok -0.68 Yes 98
yaifuz26 -0.60 Yes 95
DanielNowoselski -0.54 Yes 95
Hammer Time -0.53 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 98 97

Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
petergreen -1.26 San Antonio Spurs 15
petergreen -1.26 Cleveland Cavaliers 4
petergreen -1.26 Golden State Warriors 77
petergreen -1.26 Another team from the Eastern Conference 2
petergreen -1.26 Another team from the Western Conference 2
Raisinville -0.97 San Antonio Spurs 16
Raisinville -0.97 Cleveland Cavaliers 25
Raisinville -0.97 Golden State Warriors 28
Raisinville -0.97 Another team from the Eastern Conference 10
Raisinville -0.97 Another team from the Western Conference 21
JP -0.81 San Antonio Spurs 43
JP -0.81 Cleveland Cavaliers 5
JP -0.81 Golden State Warriors 52
JP -0.81 Another team from the Eastern Conference 0
JP -0.81 Another team from the Western Conference 0
kormac -0.70 San Antonio Spurs 25
kormac -0.70 Cleveland Cavaliers 5
kormac -0.70 Golden State Warriors 65
kormac -0.70 Another team from the Eastern Conference 3
kormac -0.70 Another team from the Western Conference 2
Guydreaux -0.63 San Antonio Spurs 35
Guydreaux -0.63 Cleveland Cavaliers 15
Guydreaux -0.63 Golden State Warriors 45
Guydreaux -0.63 Another team from the Eastern Conference 0
Guydreaux -0.63 Another team from the Western Conference 5
DanielNowoselski -0.54 San Antonio Spurs 25
DanielNowoselski -0.54 Cleveland Cavaliers 10
DanielNowoselski -0.54 Golden State Warriors 55
DanielNowoselski -0.54 Another team from the Eastern Conference 3
DanielNowoselski -0.54 Another team from the Western Conference 7
Delorean -0.52 San Antonio Spurs 40
Delorean -0.52 Cleveland Cavaliers 0
Delorean -0.52 Golden State Warriors 60
Delorean -0.52 Another team from the Eastern Conference 0
Delorean -0.52 Another team from the Western Conference 0
Dima K -0.48 San Antonio Spurs 35
Dima K -0.48 Cleveland Cavaliers 10
Dima K -0.48 Golden State Warriors 49
Dima K -0.48 Another team from the Eastern Conference 1
Dima K -0.48 Another team from the Western Conference 5
BFAhlborn -0.39 San Antonio Spurs 13
BFAhlborn -0.39 Cleveland Cavaliers 12
BFAhlborn -0.39 Golden State Warriors 70
BFAhlborn -0.39 Another team from the Eastern Conference 0
BFAhlborn -0.39 Another team from the Western Conference 5
GJDrew -0.35 San Antonio Spurs 24
GJDrew -0.35 Cleveland Cavaliers 14
GJDrew -0.35 Golden State Warriors 40
GJDrew -0.35 Another team from the Eastern Conference 13
GJDrew -0.35 Another team from the Western Conference 9
daringly -0.35 San Antonio Spurs 18
daringly -0.35 Cleveland Cavaliers 25
daringly -0.35 Golden State Warriors 50
daringly -0.35 Another team from the Eastern Conference 6
daringly -0.35 Another team from the Western Conference 1
mparrault -0.34 San Antonio Spurs 19
mparrault -0.34 Cleveland Cavaliers 14
mparrault -0.34 Golden State Warriors 56
mparrault -0.34 Another team from the Eastern Conference 5
mparrault -0.34 Another team from the Western Conference 6
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Another team from the Eastern Conference 4 2
Another team from the Western Conference 5 2
Cleveland Cavaliers 12 8
Golden State Warriors 54 68
San Antonio Spurs 26 20

Syria

Status Question
Finished Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?
Finished As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Finished Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?
Finished Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
Running Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Running Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Running Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Running When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Running Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?

Closed: 4

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

Answer: Yes

As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Branch Answer
1 million or more Yes
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive No
Less than 560,000 No
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million No

Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Answer: No

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

Answer: No

Open: 5

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
jimmccue -1.11 Yes 69
vasil -1.07 Yes 25
jimglynn -1.00 Yes 55
Stoutmoose -0.82 Yes 90
ZuluIII -0.81 Yes 66
jeremylichtman -0.79 Yes 100
Marius -0.70 Yes 15
ironmike -0.66 Yes 25
Rhysbros -0.66 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Yes 2
JP -0.46 Yes 20
ravel -0.42 Yes 13
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 41 19

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
vasil -1.07 Yes 60
afoyfs -1.06 Yes 9
jeremylichtman -0.79 Yes 40
Robur -0.65 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Yes 21
JP -0.46 Yes 50
ravel -0.42 Yes 11
adi -0.37 Yes 60
Amir -0.36 Yes 5
Saul -0.36 Yes 24
scholarandcat -0.32 Yes 23
dominich -0.31 Yes 25
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 28 18

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
vasil -1.07 Yes 35
jeremylichtman -0.79 Yes 1
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Yes 20
JP -0.46 Yes 3
ravel -0.42 Yes 36
adi -0.37 Yes 10
Amir -0.36 Yes 5
scholarandcat -0.32 Yes 23
dominich -0.31 Yes 5
REGallahue -0.27 Yes 9
AndrewSabisky -0.26 Yes 27
UnderwaterPutin -0.25 Yes 30
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 17 18

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Rhysbros -0.66 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 80
Rhysbros -0.66 Before 13 March 2016 10
Rhysbros -0.66 Not before 1 July 2016 10
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 0
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Before 13 March 2016 0
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Not before 1 July 2016 100
JP -0.46 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 0
JP -0.46 Before 13 March 2016 0
JP -0.46 Not before 1 July 2016 100
ravel -0.42 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 5
ravel -0.42 Before 13 March 2016 0
ravel -0.42 Not before 1 July 2016 95
g -0.42 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 0
g -0.42 Before 13 March 2016 0
g -0.42 Not before 1 July 2016 100
Amir -0.36 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 5
Amir -0.36 Before 13 March 2016 0
Amir -0.36 Not before 1 July 2016 95
scholarandcat -0.32 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 1
scholarandcat -0.32 Before 13 March 2016 0
scholarandcat -0.32 Not before 1 July 2016 99
dominich -0.31 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 45
dominich -0.31 Before 13 March 2016 15
dominich -0.31 Not before 1 July 2016 40
AndrewSabisky -0.26 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
AndrewSabisky -0.26 Before 13 March 2016 0
AndrewSabisky -0.26 Not before 1 July 2016 98
fifty-sixty -0.24 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 5
fifty-sixty -0.24 Before 13 March 2016 0
fifty-sixty -0.24 Not before 1 July 2016 95
dowser -0.20 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
dowser -0.20 Before 13 March 2016 0
dowser -0.20 Not before 1 July 2016 98
PianoPicasso -0.20 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 5
PianoPicasso -0.20 Before 13 March 2016 0
PianoPicasso -0.20 Not before 1 July 2016 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Before 13 March 2016 2 0
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 13 12
Not before 1 July 2016 85 88

Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
vasil -1.07 Yes 55
jeremylichtman -0.79 Yes 1
Jean-Pierre -0.62 Yes 0
JP -0.46 Yes 2
ravel -0.42 Yes 7
Amir -0.36 Yes 87
scholarandcat -0.32 Yes 16
REGallahue -0.27 Yes 12
AndrewSabisky -0.26 Yes 9
UnderwaterPutin -0.25 Yes 15
rachel39 -0.23 Yes 15
shaycooper -0.22 Yes 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 19 19

US Presidential election

Status Question
Finished Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?
Finished Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?
Finished Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Finished Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Finished After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Finished After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
Running Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Running Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Running Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Running Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Running (Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Running Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Running Which party will hold the majority of seats in the US Senate after the November 2016 election?
Running Which party will hold the majority of seats in the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?
Running When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?
Running When will Ted Cruz drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?
Running Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?
Running Will the Department of Justice indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016?
Running Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?
Running Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?

Closed: 10

Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

Answer: No

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

Answer: No

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

Answer: No

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump No
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz Yes

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes
Martin O’Malley No

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz No

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Branch Answer
Donald Trump No
John Kasich Yes
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
Branch Answer
Donald Trump No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

Open: 14

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Jeb Bush 0
mparrault -9.40 Donald Trump 65
mparrault -9.40 Marco Rubio 0
mparrault -9.40 Carly Fiorina 0
mparrault -9.40 Ben Carson 0
mparrault -9.40 None of the above 6
mparrault -9.40 Ted Cruz 29
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Jeb Bush 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Donald Trump 78
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Marco Rubio 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Carly Fiorina 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Ben Carson 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 None of the above 6
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Ted Cruz 16
Sjens -8.83 Jeb Bush 0
Sjens -8.83 Donald Trump 38
Sjens -8.83 Marco Rubio 0
Sjens -8.83 Carly Fiorina 0
Sjens -8.83 Ben Carson 0
Sjens -8.83 None of the above 6
Sjens -8.83 Ted Cruz 56
vox vox -8.81 Jeb Bush 0
vox vox -8.81 Donald Trump 54
vox vox -8.81 Marco Rubio 0
vox vox -8.81 Carly Fiorina 0
vox vox -8.81 Ben Carson 0
vox vox -8.81 None of the above 5
vox vox -8.81 Ted Cruz 41
JHH -8.70 Jeb Bush 0
JHH -8.70 Donald Trump 0
JHH -8.70 Marco Rubio 0
JHH -8.70 Carly Fiorina 0
JHH -8.70 Ben Carson 0
JHH -8.70 None of the above 50
JHH -8.70 Ted Cruz 50
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Jeb Bush 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Donald Trump 95
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Marco Rubio 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Carly Fiorina 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Ben Carson 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Ted Cruz 5
calgary -8.60 Jeb Bush 0
calgary -8.60 Donald Trump 81
calgary -8.60 Marco Rubio 2
calgary -8.60 Carly Fiorina 0
calgary -8.60 Ben Carson 0
calgary -8.60 None of the above 3
calgary -8.60 Ted Cruz 14
Dima K -8.38 Jeb Bush 0
Dima K -8.38 Donald Trump 55
Dima K -8.38 Marco Rubio 0
Dima K -8.38 Carly Fiorina 0
Dima K -8.38 Ben Carson 0
Dima K -8.38 None of the above 0
Dima K -8.38 Ted Cruz 45
JeanP -7.91 Jeb Bush 0
JeanP -7.91 Donald Trump 75
JeanP -7.91 Marco Rubio 0
JeanP -7.91 Carly Fiorina 0
JeanP -7.91 Ben Carson 0
JeanP -7.91 None of the above 5
JeanP -7.91 Ted Cruz 20
scholarandcat -7.75 Jeb Bush 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Donald Trump 81
scholarandcat -7.75 Marco Rubio 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Carly Fiorina 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Ben Carson 0
scholarandcat -7.75 None of the above 1
scholarandcat -7.75 Ted Cruz 18
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Jeb Bush 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Donald Trump 87
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Marco Rubio 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Carly Fiorina 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Ben Carson 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 None of the above 1
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Ted Cruz 12
ckruger -7.40 Jeb Bush 0
ckruger -7.40 Donald Trump 95
ckruger -7.40 Marco Rubio 0
ckruger -7.40 Carly Fiorina 0
ckruger -7.40 Ben Carson 0
ckruger -7.40 None of the above 0
ckruger -7.40 Ted Cruz 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Ben Carson 0 0
Carly Fiorina 0 0
Donald Trump 67 84
Jeb Bush 0 0
Marco Rubio 0 0
None of the above 7 1
Ted Cruz 26 15

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Martin O’Malley 0
mparrault -9.40 Bernie Sanders 11
mparrault -9.40 Hillary Clinton 89
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Martin O’Malley 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Bernie Sanders 1
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Hillary Clinton 99
Sjens -8.83 Martin O’Malley 0
Sjens -8.83 Bernie Sanders 0
Sjens -8.83 Hillary Clinton 100
vox vox -8.81 Martin O’Malley 0
vox vox -8.81 Bernie Sanders 0
vox vox -8.81 Hillary Clinton 100
JHH -8.70 Martin O’Malley 0
JHH -8.70 Bernie Sanders 0
JHH -8.70 Hillary Clinton 100
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Martin O’Malley 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Bernie Sanders 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Hillary Clinton 100
calgary -8.60 Martin O’Malley 0
calgary -8.60 Bernie Sanders 0
calgary -8.60 Hillary Clinton 100
Dima K -8.38 Martin O’Malley 0
Dima K -8.38 Bernie Sanders 2
Dima K -8.38 Hillary Clinton 98
JeanP -7.91 Martin O’Malley 0
JeanP -7.91 Bernie Sanders 4
JeanP -7.91 Hillary Clinton 96
scholarandcat -7.75 Martin O’Malley 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Bernie Sanders 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Hillary Clinton 100
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Martin O’Malley 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Bernie Sanders 2
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Hillary Clinton 98
ckruger -7.40 Martin O’Malley 0
ckruger -7.40 Bernie Sanders 0
ckruger -7.40 Hillary Clinton 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Bernie Sanders 2 8
Hillary Clinton 98 92
Martin O’Malley 0 0

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Yes 30
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Yes 59
Sjens -8.83 Yes 40
vox vox -8.81 Yes 40
JHH -8.70 Yes 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes 95
calgary -8.60 Yes 90
Dima K -8.38 Yes 50
JeanP -7.91 Yes 15
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes 73
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes 87
ckruger -7.40 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 56 72

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 A Democrat 73
mparrault -9.40 Other 1
mparrault -9.40 A Republican 26
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 A Democrat 69
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Other 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 A Republican 31
Sjens -8.83 A Democrat 95
Sjens -8.83 Other 0
Sjens -8.83 A Republican 5
vox vox -8.81 A Democrat 80
vox vox -8.81 Other 0
vox vox -8.81 A Republican 20
JHH -8.70 A Democrat 65
JHH -8.70 Other 0
JHH -8.70 A Republican 35
Jean-Pierre -8.64 A Democrat 53
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Other 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 A Republican 47
calgary -8.60 A Democrat 66
calgary -8.60 Other 0
calgary -8.60 A Republican 34
Dima K -8.38 A Democrat 60
Dima K -8.38 Other 0
Dima K -8.38 A Republican 40
JeanP -7.91 A Democrat 90
JeanP -7.91 Other 0
JeanP -7.91 A Republican 10
scholarandcat -7.75 A Democrat 67
scholarandcat -7.75 Other 0
scholarandcat -7.75 A Republican 33
AndrewSabisky -7.49 A Democrat 71
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Other 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 A Republican 29
ckruger -7.40 A Democrat 100
ckruger -7.40 Other 0
ckruger -7.40 A Republican 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
A Democrat 74 75
A Republican 26 25
Other 0 0

(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Republican 28
mparrault -9.40 Other 1
mparrault -9.40 Democrat 71
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Republican 19
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Other 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Democrat 81
vox vox -8.81 Republican 8
vox vox -8.81 Other 0
vox vox -8.81 Democrat 92
JHH -8.70 Republican 0
JHH -8.70 Other 0
JHH -8.70 Democrat 100
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Republican 50
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Other 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Democrat 50
calgary -8.60 Republican 25
calgary -8.60 Other 0
calgary -8.60 Democrat 75
Dima K -8.38 Republican 25
Dima K -8.38 Other 0
Dima K -8.38 Democrat 75
scholarandcat -7.75 Republican 25
scholarandcat -7.75 Other 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Democrat 75
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Republican 29
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Other 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Democrat 71
ckruger -7.40 Republican 0
ckruger -7.40 Other 0
ckruger -7.40 Democrat 100
anthony_nyc -7.39 Republican 30
anthony_nyc -7.39 Other 10
anthony_nyc -7.39 Democrat 60
Khalid -7.21 Republican 25
Khalid -7.21 Other 0
Khalid -7.21 Democrat 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Democrat 77 77
Other 1 0
Republican 22 23

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Yes 45
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Yes 58
Sjens -8.83 Yes 58
vox vox -8.81 Yes 50
JHH -8.70 Yes 30
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes 5
Dima K -8.38 Yes 35
JeanP -7.91 Yes 56
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes 25
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes 31
ckruger -7.40 Yes 15
anthony_nyc -7.39 Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 41 38

Which party will hold the majority of seats in the US Senate after the November 2016 election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Republicans 37
mparrault -9.40 Democrats 63
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Republicans 33
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Democrats 67
Sjens -8.83 Republicans 25
Sjens -8.83 Democrats 75
vox vox -8.81 Republicans 38
vox vox -8.81 Democrats 62
JHH -8.70 Republicans 20
JHH -8.70 Democrats 80
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Republicans 10
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Democrats 90
calgary -8.60 Republicans 45
calgary -8.60 Democrats 55
Dima K -8.38 Republicans 45
Dima K -8.38 Democrats 55
JeanP -7.91 Republicans 40
JeanP -7.91 Democrats 60
scholarandcat -7.75 Republicans 34
scholarandcat -7.75 Democrats 66
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Republicans 38
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Democrats 62
ckruger -7.40 Republicans 35
ckruger -7.40 Democrats 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Democrats 67 60
Republicans 33 40

Which party will hold the majority of seats in the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Republicans 85
mparrault -9.40 Democrats 15
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Republicans 89
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Democrats 11
Sjens -8.83 Republicans 89
Sjens -8.83 Democrats 11
vox vox -8.81 Republicans 83
vox vox -8.81 Democrats 17
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Republicans 70
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Democrats 30
calgary -8.60 Republicans 75
calgary -8.60 Democrats 25
Dima K -8.38 Republicans 80
Dima K -8.38 Democrats 20
JeanP -7.91 Republicans 100
JeanP -7.91 Democrats 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Republicans 99
scholarandcat -7.75 Democrats 1
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Republicans 68
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Democrats 32
ckruger -7.40 Republicans 95
ckruger -7.40 Democrats 5
anthony_nyc -7.39 Republicans 68
anthony_nyc -7.39 Democrats 32
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Democrats 17 12
Republicans 83 88

When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Not before the Republican National Convention 69
mparrault -9.40 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 18
mparrault -9.40 Before the New York primary 2
mparrault -9.40 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 7
mparrault -9.40 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 4
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Not before the Republican National Convention 94
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 4
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Before the New York primary 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 1
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 1
Sjens -8.83 Not before the Republican National Convention 82
Sjens -8.83 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 18
Sjens -8.83 Before the New York primary 0
Sjens -8.83 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Sjens -8.83 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
vox vox -8.81 Not before the Republican National Convention 85
vox vox -8.81 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 13
vox vox -8.81 Before the New York primary 0
vox vox -8.81 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 1
vox vox -8.81 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 1
JHH -8.70 Not before the Republican National Convention 100
JHH -8.70 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 0
JHH -8.70 Before the New York primary 0
JHH -8.70 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
JHH -8.70 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Not before the Republican National Convention 70
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 25
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Before the New York primary 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 5
Dima K -8.38 Not before the Republican National Convention 65
Dima K -8.38 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 24
Dima K -8.38 Before the New York primary 0
Dima K -8.38 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 3
Dima K -8.38 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 8
JeanP -7.91 Not before the Republican National Convention 55
JeanP -7.91 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 45
JeanP -7.91 Before the New York primary 0
JeanP -7.91 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
JeanP -7.91 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Not before the Republican National Convention 68
scholarandcat -7.75 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 28
scholarandcat -7.75 Before the New York primary 0
scholarandcat -7.75 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 1
scholarandcat -7.75 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 3
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Not before the Republican National Convention 67
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 29
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Before the New York primary 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 4
ckruger -7.40 Not before the Republican National Convention 20
ckruger -7.40 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 75
ckruger -7.40 Before the New York primary 0
ckruger -7.40 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
ckruger -7.40 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 5
anthony_nyc -7.39 Not before the Republican National Convention 50
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 30
anthony_nyc -7.39 Before the New York primary 3
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 7
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 26 17
After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 3 6
After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 2 1
Before the New York primary 0 0
Not before the Republican National Convention 69 76

When will Ted Cruz drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Not before the Republican National Convention 82
mparrault -9.40 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 15
mparrault -9.40 Before the New York primary 0
mparrault -9.40 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 2
mparrault -9.40 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 1
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Not before the Republican National Convention 99
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 1
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Before the New York primary 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
Sjens -8.83 Not before the Republican National Convention 99
Sjens -8.83 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 1
Sjens -8.83 Before the New York primary 0
Sjens -8.83 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Sjens -8.83 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
vox vox -8.81 Not before the Republican National Convention 95
vox vox -8.81 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 3
vox vox -8.81 Before the New York primary 0
vox vox -8.81 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
vox vox -8.81 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 2
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Not before the Republican National Convention 80
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 20
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Before the New York primary 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
Dima K -8.38 Not before the Republican National Convention 98
Dima K -8.38 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 2
Dima K -8.38 Before the New York primary 0
Dima K -8.38 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Dima K -8.38 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
JeanP -7.91 Not before the Republican National Convention 100
JeanP -7.91 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 0
JeanP -7.91 Before the New York primary 0
JeanP -7.91 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
JeanP -7.91 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
scholarandcat -7.75 Not before the Republican National Convention 83
scholarandcat -7.75 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 17
scholarandcat -7.75 Before the New York primary 0
scholarandcat -7.75 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
scholarandcat -7.75 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Not before the Republican National Convention 71
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 29
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Before the New York primary 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
AndrewSabisky -7.49 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
ckruger -7.40 Not before the Republican National Convention 90
ckruger -7.40 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 10
ckruger -7.40 Before the New York primary 0
ckruger -7.40 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
ckruger -7.40 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
anthony_nyc -7.39 Not before the Republican National Convention 60
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 22
anthony_nyc -7.39 Before the New York primary 3
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 7
anthony_nyc -7.39 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 8
Khalid -7.21 Not before the Republican National Convention 98
Khalid -7.21 After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 2
Khalid -7.21 Before the New York primary 0
Khalid -7.21 After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0
Khalid -7.21 After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 10 7
After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 1 0
After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 1 0
Before the New York primary 0 0
Not before the Republican National Convention 88 93

Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 5
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 1
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 No 94
Sjens -8.83 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 4
Sjens -8.83 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 3
Sjens -8.83 No 93
vox vox -8.81 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 5
vox vox -8.81 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 10
vox vox -8.81 No 85
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 10
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 5
Jean-Pierre -8.64 No 85
Dima K -8.38 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 9
Dima K -8.38 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 11
Dima K -8.38 No 80
JeanP -7.91 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 35
JeanP -7.91 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 2
JeanP -7.91 No 63
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 18
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 5
scholarandcat -7.75 No 77
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 9
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 1
AndrewSabisky -7.49 No 90
ckruger -7.40 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 0
ckruger -7.40 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 2
ckruger -7.40 No 98
ESR -6.94 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 26
ESR -6.94 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 22
ESR -6.94 No 52
cdob63 -6.94 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 0
cdob63 -6.94 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 3
cdob63 -6.94 No 97
Guydreaux -6.93 Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 4
Guydreaux -6.93 Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 11
Guydreaux -6.93 No 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
No 83 81
Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent/third party candidate or will be among them 6 5
Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent/third party candidate or be among them 10 14

Will the Department of Justice indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Yes 5
Vuk_Vukovic -8.85 Yes 1
Sjens -8.83 Yes 0
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes 0
Dima K -8.38 Yes 10
JeanP -7.91 Yes 4
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes 1
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes 7
ckruger -7.40 Yes 0
anthony_nyc -7.39 Yes 40
MattKirbyNH -6.99 Yes 2
ESR -6.94 Yes 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 6 2

Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Yes 26
Sjens -8.83 Yes 20
vox vox -8.81 Yes 15
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes 10
Dima K -8.38 Yes 25
JeanP -7.91 Yes 25
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes 13
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes 26
anthony_nyc -7.39 Yes 35
Khalid -7.21 Yes 26
cdob63 -6.94 Yes 12
JP -6.87 Yes 20
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 21 13

Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Cluster Accuracy Branch Prediction
mparrault -9.40 Yes 47
Sjens -8.83 Yes 60
vox vox -8.81 Yes 46
Jean-Pierre -8.64 Yes 25
JeanP -7.91 Yes 50
scholarandcat -7.75 Yes 60
AndrewSabisky -7.49 Yes 39
anthony_nyc -7.39 Yes 66
Khalid -7.21 Yes 48
cdob63 -6.94 Yes 49
JP -6.87 Yes 35
Sneaky_Pete531 -6.77 Yes 60
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 4/13/16 Prior answer 4/6/16
Yes 49 53

GITREP technical problem: Attrition

We’ve reached a point in the GJOpen game where, although the number of forecasters keeps increasing, the number of forecasters who have forecast on every open and closed question in a cluster that I have defined has decreased to the point that certain clusters, such as Iran, have no covering experts.

This is a result of several factors:

  • Some of the more prolific forecasters have quit the game, in particular @einsteinjs and @cmeinel.
  • Remaining forecasters are slowing down and not covering every question.
  • The number of questions has reached the point that it is unlikely for any one forecaster to cover enough of them that the forecaster will happen to cover all of the questions in a cluster that I have defined

So I will have to rethink and reprogram my super-picker.  Here’s a thought:

  • Look at who is in an open question in a cluster.
  • Of that set, find out who accumulated the highest sum of accuracy scores among any closed question in the cluster
  • Rank them and pick the highest.

This probably a better algorithm than I’m using anyway because for Iran in particular my number of experts was dwindling from the original target of 12 down to 4 and finally down to none.

I am too tired tonight to program this, plus it’s New York election night and season-enders of Girls and Better Call Saul, so it will be a day or two before I get to it.