GITREP 7MAR16pm

Africa

Closed: 1

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

Branch	Answer
Amama Mbabazi	No
Kizza Besigye	No
None of the above	No
Yoweri Museveni	Yes

# Forecasters: 223

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.503043	Clairvoyance
2	-0.503043	jlodge01
3	-0.502808	einsteinjs
4	-0.502691	Modog814
5	-0.502643	Spandrelbarca
6	-0.502408	cdob63
7	-0.502319	GeneH
8	-0.501905	redacted
9	-0.500808	Scooozai
10	-0.499574	clinton
11	-0.499188	chackpal
12	-0.497932	paul_the_octopus

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.502808	einsteinjs
2	-0.502643	Spandrelbarca
3	-0.502408	cdob63
4	-0.500808	Scooozai
5	-0.499574	clinton
6	-0.499188	chackpal
7	-0.496870	000
8	-0.496070	Sneaky_Pete531
9	-0.493732	petth
10	-0.468332	dkc
11	-0.434077	AlexisTocqueville
12	-0.433505	Sjens

Open: 3

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Sjens	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	0
einsteinjs	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	0
clinton	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	0
dkc	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	1
chackpal	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	3
cdob63	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	7
AlexisTocqueville	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	15
Sneaky_Pete531	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	30
Scooozai	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	33
Spandrelbarca	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	34
petth	Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	35
petth	Less than 10,000	50
Scooozai	Less than 10,000	55
Sneaky_Pete531	Less than 10,000	60
Spandrelbarca	Less than 10,000	66
AlexisTocqueville	Less than 10,000	85
cdob63	Less than 10,000	92
chackpal	Less than 10,000	96
dkc	Less than 10,000	99
Sjens	Less than 10,000	100
einsteinjs	Less than 10,000	100
clinton	Less than 10,000	100
Sjens	More than 15,000	0
AlexisTocqueville	More than 15,000	0
dkc	More than 15,000	0
einsteinjs	More than 15,000	0
clinton	More than 15,000	0
Spandrelbarca	More than 15,000	0
chackpal	More than 15,000	1
cdob63	More than 15,000	1
Sneaky_Pete531	More than 15,000	10
Scooozai	More than 15,000	12
petth	More than 15,000	15

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive	14	15
Less than 10,000	82	82
More than 15,000	4	3

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Sjens	Yes	21
cdob63	Yes	29
einsteinjs	Yes	38
Sneaky_Pete531	Yes	43
chackpal	Yes	50
clinton	Yes	51
AlexisTocqueville	Yes	55
petth	Yes	60
Spandrelbarca	Yes	65
Scooozai	Yes	85
dkc	Yes	90

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	53	53

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Sjens	Yes	1
dkc	Yes	3
AlexisTocqueville	Yes	5
clinton	Yes	5
cdob63	Yes	7
Sneaky_Pete531	Yes	10
chackpal	Yes	13
einsteinjs	Yes	14
Scooozai	Yes	35
petth	Yes	50
Spandrelbarca	Yes	75

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	20	20

Asia

Closed: 1

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?

Branch	Answer
Majority	Yes
Not a plurality	No
Plurality	No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.287993	slobodan
2	-0.972678	WangShuo
3	-0.855420	geoseattleite
4	-0.708725	Van der MEI
5	-0.541507	KateWestmoreland
6	-0.519885	A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams
7	-0.500404	lsgold7
8	-0.493038	TVANKSTA
9	-0.479074	xieweisen
10	-0.460404	dr.cankraut
11	-0.460065	Shahram33
12	-0.365233	teresalam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.287993	slobodan
2	-0.288985	Jean-Pierre
3	-0.264130	cdob63
4	-0.257545	000
5	-0.257445	ravel
6	-0.232613	patrickmeehan5
7	-0.220289	Spandrelbarca
8	-0.209220	malcmur
9	-0.199880	mparrault
10	-0.193285	boz
11	-0.145470	sh517
12	-0.070631	kormac

Open: 3

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
patrickmeehan5	Yes	65
ravel	Yes	71
malcmur	Yes	80
kormac	Yes	80
boz	Yes	85
Spandrelbarca	Yes	89
Jean-Pierre	Yes	90
mparrault	Yes	95
cdob63	Yes	99
sh517	Yes	100
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	87	87

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Spandrelbarca	Yes	5
ravel	Yes	9
cdob63	Yes	9
malcmur	Yes	10
kormac	Yes	10
patrickmeehan5	Yes	15
mparrault	Yes	18
boz	Yes	19
Jean-Pierre	Yes	22
sh517	Yes	55
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	25	25

Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
sh517	Grace Poe	0
slobodan	Grace Poe	0
cdob63	Grace Poe	2
malcmur	Grace Poe	20
boz	Grace Poe	22
mparrault	Grace Poe	25
Jean-Pierre	Grace Poe	30
ravel	Grace Poe	33
Spandrelbarca	Grace Poe	35
kormac	Grace Poe	40
patrickmeehan5	Grace Poe	49
slobodan	Jejomar Binay	11
Jean-Pierre	Jejomar Binay	30
kormac	Jejomar Binay	30
ravel	Jejomar Binay	34
Spandrelbarca	Jejomar Binay	35
boz	Jejomar Binay	37
mparrault	Jejomar Binay	39
patrickmeehan5	Jejomar Binay	51
malcmur	Jejomar Binay	60
cdob63	Jejomar Binay	65
sh517	Jejomar Binay	100
sh517	Mar Roxas	0
malcmur	Mar Roxas	0
slobodan	Mar Roxas	0
patrickmeehan5	Mar Roxas	0
ravel	Mar Roxas	2
Spandrelbarca	Mar Roxas	5
mparrault	Mar Roxas	7
cdob63	Mar Roxas	8
Jean-Pierre	Mar Roxas	10
boz	Mar Roxas	13
kormac	Mar Roxas	20
sh517	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
malcmur	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
Jean-Pierre	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
slobodan	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
kormac	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
cdob63	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
patrickmeehan5	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
Spandrelbarca	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0
mparrault	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	1
boz	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	2
ravel	Miriam Defensor-Santiago	2
sh517	None of the above	0
malcmur	None of the above	0
Jean-Pierre	None of the above	0
slobodan	None of the above	0
kormac	None of the above	0
ravel	None of the above	0
cdob63	None of the above	0
patrickmeehan5	None of the above	0
mparrault	None of the above	1
boz	None of the above	2
Spandrelbarca	None of the above	5
sh517	Rodrigo Duterte	0
patrickmeehan5	Rodrigo Duterte	0
kormac	Rodrigo Duterte	10
malcmur	Rodrigo Duterte	20
Spandrelbarca	Rodrigo Duterte	20
boz	Rodrigo Duterte	24
cdob63	Rodrigo Duterte	25
mparrault	Rodrigo Duterte	27
ravel	Rodrigo Duterte	29
Jean-Pierre	Rodrigo Duterte	30
slobodan	Rodrigo Duterte	89

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Grace Poe	23	22
Jejomar Binay	45	42
Mar Roxas	6	6
Miriam Defensor-Santiago	0	0
None of the above	1	1
Rodrigo Duterte	25	29

Capital controls

Closed: 10

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 55

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.760930	mc77
2	-0.735999	brazilianwitchcraft
3	-0.680486	Peter Katzenfisch
4	-0.621344	fchoe
5	-0.612430	Jamison
6	-0.512430	pb41
7	-0.475930	Falconer
8	-0.471430	afoyfs
9	-0.442875	banda311
10	-0.420097	Mikatec
11	-0.403430	Khalid
12	-0.402097	bconlee

Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 175

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.284685	Peter Katzenfisch
2	-0.281174	tumbleweed
3	-0.278442	Rebel ran riot
4	-0.274153	974david
5	-0.259251	gust
6	-0.249651	Anneinak
7	-0.244319	Agent0090
8	-0.241672	clinton
9	-0.240093	darius.hinton
10	-0.237868	donmars
11	-0.232025	Randy
12	-0.222495	dada

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 94

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.272006	Paul Theron
2	-0.261711	jeremylichtman
3	-0.257041	Dwight Smith
4	-0.255736	PinyonCyn
5	-0.255723	llanchav
6	-0.255463	000
7	-0.253607	Asteras
8	-0.251375	brazilianwitchcraft
9	-0.249679	Falconer
10	-0.249569	BlockHead
11	-0.249350	Manfred
12	-0.247481	slobodan

Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 202

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.217195	Reynard
2	-0.210510	PinyonCyn
3	-0.210313	Falconer
4	-0.208338	bmiller
5	-0.203094	000
6	-0.197395	Darren
7	-0.195541	Oracle
8	-0.192805	rjuarbe
9	-0.192805	llanchav
10	-0.192805	bill l
11	-0.192421	Dwight Smith
12	-0.189526	BlockHead

Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 579

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.455791	eightball
2	-0.452291	Bob Woods
3	-0.450841	briannbarbour
4	-0.450595	Chiyouen
5	-0.445891	harshabn
6	-0.445891	hn7815
7	-0.445597	patrickmeehan5
8	-0.443119	nc.ch
9	-0.443119	Picasso1387
10	-0.438247	Falconer
11	-0.431191	Ron
12	-0.431191	dyco

Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 112

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.421854	GP Jim
2	-0.416593	Rebel ran riot
3	-0.411894	lookitsKB
4	-0.406159	donmars
5	-0.402262	gearhart5k
6	-0.400807	iajski
7	-0.397209	Doina
8	-0.396262	ambidextrous
9	-0.382315	jnord
10	-0.377525	davecrosby
11	-0.377525	thalt123
12	-0.377525	Garyland

Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 127

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.528685	Manfred
2	-0.519695	PetaBajt
3	-0.500274	drbooze
4	-0.497586	dada
5	-0.495485	LisinHvost
6	-0.495485	CRaazi
7	-0.470906	Rote
8	-0.465380	Somchai A
9	-0.454093	MarkBadger
10	-0.438531	GeneH
11	-0.429853	fightin bronco
12	-0.423695	Minnesota71

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 101

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.082346	Anneinak
2	-0.082346	DariusX
3	-0.082346	Raisinville
4	-0.082346	Spandrelbarca
5	-0.082346	ckruger
6	-0.082346	redacted
7	-0.082346	Gleb_Kabanov
8	-0.082346	luzkannon
9	-0.082346	rockytop00
10	-0.082346	kormac
11	-0.082346	CalMotoMal
12	-0.082346	Free-thinker

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

Branch	Answer
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term	Yes
Someone else from Europe	No
Someone from outside Europe	No

# Forecasters: 277

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.678659	k13rkeg44rd
2	-0.678659	RedHarris
3	-0.670050	einsteinjs
4	-0.668659	Travist
5	-0.660536	kormac
6	-0.651727	AjzakN
7	-0.649459	PaulLynch
8	-0.648659	15
9	-0.643423	alistaircookie
10	-0.642159	malcmur
11	-0.641236	dkc
12	-0.631955	Srzaua

How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?

Branch	Answer
Four	No
None	No
One	No
Three	No
Two	Yes

# Forecasters: 202

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.988249	einsteinjs
2	-0.984349	z0k
3	-0.984182	gkamstra
4	-0.982182	Sjens
5	-0.981382	alistaircookie
6	-0.980449	sonac36
7	-0.978982	Khalid
8	-0.978982	fifty-sixty
9	-0.978982	Overtheriver
10	-0.978982	searchlight
11	-0.978982	Persistanceofmemory
12	-0.974049	DariusX

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-2.458420	000
2	-2.282963	cdob63
3	-1.825863	ravel
4	-1.684331	patrickmeehan5
5	-1.414834	kormac
6	-1.342902	mparrault

Open: 7

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
kormac	Yes	10
cdob63	Yes	15
ravel	Yes	17
mparrault	Yes	20
patrickmeehan5	Yes	99

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	32	32

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Yes	0
patrickmeehan5	Yes	0
mparrault	Yes	4
kormac	Yes	5
ravel	Yes	7

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	3	4

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
kormac	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	2
ravel	Yes	4
mparrault	Yes	5
patrickmeehan5	Yes	60

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	14	15

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	Yes	0
patrickmeehan5	Yes	10
cdob63	Yes	19
mparrault	Yes	25
kormac	Yes	30

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	17	19

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Above 75	0
ravel	Above 75	2
mparrault	Above 75	11
kormac	Above 75	25
patrickmeehan5	Above 75	69
kormac	Between 51 and 60, inclusive	3
patrickmeehan5	Between 51 and 60, inclusive	10
mparrault	Between 51 and 60, inclusive	21
ravel	Between 51 and 60, inclusive	25
cdob63	Between 51 and 60, inclusive	26
patrickmeehan5	Between 61 and 75, inclusive	20
mparrault	Between 61 and 75, inclusive	60
ravel	Between 61 and 75, inclusive	68
kormac	Between 61 and 75, inclusive	70
cdob63	Between 61 and 75, inclusive	74
cdob63	In the top 50	0
patrickmeehan5	In the top 50	1
kormac	In the top 50	2
ravel	In the top 50	5
mparrault	In the top 50	8

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Above 75	21	23
Between 51 and 60, inclusive	17	13
Between 61 and 75, inclusive	58	62
In the top 50	3	2

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
mparrault	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	1
ravel	Yes	2
kormac	Yes	5
patrickmeehan5	Yes	10

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	4	4

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
mparrault	Yes	65
cdob63	Yes	71
ravel	Yes	77
patrickmeehan5	Yes	80
kormac	Yes	85

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	76	75

China

Closed: 2

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 148

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.183613	Easy Miles
2	-0.182941	Paul Theron
3	-0.179515	Spandrelbarca
4	-0.170171	PinyonCyn
5	-0.166687	000
6	-0.166441	Matt
7	-0.163613	Darren
8	-0.160171	Xu
9	-0.158833	dylanjones
10	-0.150826	Roosevelt
11	-0.146728	slobodan
12	-0.145987	hyperionok

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 182

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.340406	k13rkeg44rd
2	-0.335406	Lucky
3	-0.334716	redacted
4	-0.332039	madre
5	-0.330305	ckruger
6	-0.323263	dkc
7	-0.319087	DMOzone
8	-0.313338	Jean-Pierre
9	-0.312933	slobodan
10	-0.294619	jkbick
11	-0.294059	sh517
12	-0.293331	000

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.470521	madre
2	-0.460018	000
3	-0.459661	slobodan
4	-0.426133	Jean-Pierre
5	-0.415508	alistaircookie
6	-0.412462	Lucky
7	-0.410775	ckruger
8	-0.402072	klin
9	-0.389949	cmeinel
10	-0.362608	cdob63
11	-0.354234	Buck Clemons
12	-0.339882	mparrault

Open: 3

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cmeinel	Yes	1
ckruger	Yes	5
Buck Clemons	Yes	10
klin	Yes	12
Jean-Pierre	Yes	21
alistaircookie	Yes	33
mparrault	Yes	35
cdob63	Yes	55
madre	Yes	68
Lucky	Yes	75
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	38	39

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Lucky	Yes	1
ckruger	Yes	3
alistaircookie	Yes	3
klin	Yes	5
cmeinel	Yes	6
mparrault	Yes	7
Buck Clemons	Yes	10
cdob63	Yes	10
Jean-Pierre	Yes	14
madre	Yes	28
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	17	17

Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cmeinel	No	47
klin	No	60
Jean-Pierre	No	60
Lucky	No	70
Buck Clemons	No	85
mparrault	No	85
cdob63	No	97
madre	No	98
alistaircookie	No	98
ckruger	No	99
slobodan	No	100
Buck Clemons	Yes, with both	0
ckruger	Yes, with both	0
cmeinel	Yes, with both	0
slobodan	Yes, with both	0
madre	Yes, with both	0
cdob63	Yes, with both	0
Lucky	Yes, with both	0
alistaircookie	Yes, with both	2
mparrault	Yes, with both	2
Jean-Pierre	Yes, with both	3
klin	Yes, with both	25
slobodan	Yes, with only Iran	0
alistaircookie	Yes, with only Iran	0
ckruger	Yes, with only Iran	1
madre	Yes, with only Iran	1
cdob63	Yes, with only Iran	3
Buck Clemons	Yes, with only Iran	10
mparrault	Yes, with only Iran	10
klin	Yes, with only Iran	15
Jean-Pierre	Yes, with only Iran	23
Lucky	Yes, with only Iran	30
cmeinel	Yes, with only Iran	53
klin	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
ckruger	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
cmeinel	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
slobodan	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
cdob63	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
Lucky	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
alistaircookie	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	0
madre	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	1
mparrault	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	3
Buck Clemons	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	5
Jean-Pierre	Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	14

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
No	82	82
Yes, with both	3	3
Yes, with only Iran	13	13
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia	2	2

EU

Closed: 2

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 89

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.157904	Falconer
2	-0.151375	cdob63
3	-0.151312	clinton
4	-0.148035	mike97mike
5	-0.145732	malcmur
6	-0.145535	scholarandcat
7	-0.145353	000
8	-0.144310	patrickmeehan5
9	-0.139261	dada
10	-0.139216	Lux
11	-0.139016	Hammer Time
12	-0.137692	mparrault

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 429

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.580726	slobodan
2	-0.575320	drouq_
3	-0.547018	duth_forever
4	-0.545726	patrickmeehan5
5	-0.535726	marcbgoldberg
6	-0.530987	mayflower
7	-0.514668	searchlight
8	-0.511393	monique
9	-0.500726	CedricJ
10	-0.497226	Augustinas
11	-0.496351	scurcuru
12	-0.492341	jfm293c

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.690036	patrickmeehan5
2	-0.530723	Delorean
3	-0.487162	cdob63
4	-0.298233	Jean-Pierre
5	-0.295004	Rene
6	-0.285294	000
7	-0.262162	RCScheffers
8	-0.225466	JuliusKo
9	-0.195666	Anneinak
10	-0.189826	paul_the_octopus
11	-0.098943	Sneaky_Pete531
12	-0.067104	dominich

Open: 3

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
RCScheffers	Both	0
paul_the_octopus	Both	0
Sneaky_Pete531	Both	0
JuliusKo	Both	0
dominich	Both	0
Jean-Pierre	Both	0
Delorean	Both	0
Anneinak	Both	0
Rene	Both	0
cdob63	Both	0
patrickmeehan5	Both	80
Delorean	Ciudadanos	0
Anneinak	Ciudadanos	0
cdob63	Ciudadanos	1
Sneaky_Pete531	Ciudadanos	3
paul_the_octopus	Ciudadanos	4
Jean-Pierre	Ciudadanos	4
RCScheffers	Ciudadanos	5
Rene	Ciudadanos	5
patrickmeehan5	Ciudadanos	5
JuliusKo	Ciudadanos	6
dominich	Ciudadanos	15
patrickmeehan5	Neither	5
Sneaky_Pete531	Neither	84
dominich	Neither	85
JuliusKo	Neither	90
Jean-Pierre	Neither	94
RCScheffers	Neither	95
paul_the_octopus	Neither	95
Rene	Neither	95
cdob63	Neither	99
Delorean	Neither	100
Anneinak	Neither	100
RCScheffers	Podemos	0
dominich	Podemos	0
Delorean	Podemos	0
Anneinak	Podemos	0
Rene	Podemos	0
cdob63	Podemos	0
paul_the_octopus	Podemos	1
Jean-Pierre	Podemos	2
JuliusKo	Podemos	4
patrickmeehan5	Podemos	10
Sneaky_Pete531	Podemos	13

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Both	7	10
Ciudadanos	4	3
Neither	86	84
Podemos	3	3

Who will be the next mayor of London?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
RCScheffers	None of the above	0
Sneaky_Pete531	None of the above	0
dominich	None of the above	0
Jean-Pierre	None of the above	0
Delorean	None of the above	0
Anneinak	None of the above	0
Rene	None of the above	0
cdob63	None of the above	0
patrickmeehan5	None of the above	0
paul_the_octopus	None of the above	1
JuliusKo	None of the above	1
JuliusKo	Sadiq Khan	74
Sneaky_Pete531	Sadiq Khan	75
Jean-Pierre	Sadiq Khan	75
Anneinak	Sadiq Khan	75
RCScheffers	Sadiq Khan	78
Rene	Sadiq Khan	78
dominich	Sadiq Khan	80
paul_the_octopus	Sadiq Khan	86
Delorean	Sadiq Khan	91
cdob63	Sadiq Khan	94
patrickmeehan5	Sadiq Khan	99
patrickmeehan5	Zac Goldsmith	1
cdob63	Zac Goldsmith	6
Delorean	Zac Goldsmith	9
paul_the_octopus	Zac Goldsmith	13
dominich	Zac Goldsmith	20
RCScheffers	Zac Goldsmith	22
Rene	Zac Goldsmith	22
Sneaky_Pete531	Zac Goldsmith	25
JuliusKo	Zac Goldsmith	25
Jean-Pierre	Zac Goldsmith	25
Anneinak	Zac Goldsmith	25

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
None of the above	0	0
Sadiq Khan	82	83
Zac Goldsmith	18	17

Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	55
RCScheffers	Yes	58
Rene	Yes	58
Anneinak	Yes	66
Sneaky_Pete531	Yes	75
JuliusKo	Yes	80
dominich	Yes	80
cdob63	Yes	80
paul_the_octopus	Yes	83
Delorean	Yes	95
patrickmeehan5	Yes	95

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	75	72

Entertainment

Closed: 4

Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 145

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.623068	RichStenberg
2	-0.587479	ben
3	-0.583794	jeremylichtman
4	-0.534189	Khalid
5	-0.517468	yankeeracer
6	-0.504694	Socrates
7	-0.498268	SmallTown Gal
8	-0.482305	ESR
9	-0.478389	patrickmeehan5
10	-0.470505	KokaV992
11	-0.468663	Slackline
12	-0.468663	matadams4u

Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 238

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.215373	piodzie
2	-0.215373	BestGuess
3	-0.215052	heinlager
4	-0.210786	Rebel ran riot
5	-0.210590	hyperionok
6	-0.210590	List9845
7	-0.210419	XanX
8	-0.210419	selkhet7
9	-0.210419	raullegaz
10	-0.210419	Predrag
11	-0.205878	Themistokles
12	-0.205878	JH_Bernard

Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?

Branch	Answer
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser	No
Laser Maze Jr.	No
Makey Makey Classic	No
Meccanoid G15	Yes
MiPosaur	No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator	No
i-loom	No

# Forecasters: 160

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.460378	vkent
2	-1.359424	renatomt
3	-1.242494	albender
4	-1.153113	Graham88
5	-0.971340	janeanne
6	-0.961103	fifty-sixty
7	-0.886779	calebw
8	-0.873897	Magloghan
9	-0.870655	praedico
10	-0.870378	Minsky
11	-0.862222	Dima K
12	-0.846671	Dilamarter

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?

Branch	Answer
Bridge of Spies	No
Brooklyn	No
Mad Max: Fury Road	No
Room	No
Spotlight	Yes
The Big Short	No
The Martian	No
The Revenant	No

# Forecasters: 402

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-2.032620	slobodan
2	-1.634741	Mr.Macbeth
3	-1.507166	Potter
4	-1.496863	pablogabriels
5	-1.488378	acerock6
6	-1.444981	craigellan
7	-1.416951	Dima K
8	-1.399396	Costusinsights
9	-1.218123	dylbyl25
10	-1.157466	Scabe
11	-1.124422	Claudio
12	-1.109287	kbaker

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-2.209046	GJDrew
2	-1.595470	mparrault
3	-1.541718	patrickmeehan5
4	-1.505138	000
5	-1.391106	yaifuz26
6	-1.375077	cdob63
7	-1.023185	ravel
8	-0.244440	petth

Open: 6

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Yes	1
mparrault	Yes	4
ravel	Yes	5
GJDrew	Yes	11
petth	Yes	25
yaifuz26	Yes	55
patrickmeehan5	Yes	99

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	29	29

Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
petth	All of the above will survive season 6	0
patrickmeehan5	All of the above will survive season 6	0
yaifuz26	All of the above will survive season 6	25
GJDrew	All of the above will survive season 6	25
cdob63	All of the above will survive season 6	42
ravel	All of the above will survive season 6	52
mparrault	All of the above will survive season 6	54
ravel	Carl	0
patrickmeehan5	Carl	0
mparrault	Carl	3
GJDrew	Carl	5
cdob63	Carl	14
yaifuz26	Carl	25
petth	Carl	50
patrickmeehan5	Carol	0
yaifuz26	Carol	15
mparrault	Carol	15
GJDrew	Carol	18
ravel	Carol	22
cdob63	Carol	34
petth	Carol	50
petth	Daryl	0
patrickmeehan5	Daryl	0
cdob63	Daryl	6
mparrault	Daryl	7
yaifuz26	Daryl	20
ravel	Daryl	22
GJDrew	Daryl	26
yaifuz26	Glenn	0
petth	Glenn	0
cdob63	Glenn	3
ravel	Glenn	4
mparrault	Glenn	20
GJDrew	Glenn	26
patrickmeehan5	Glenn	99
petth	Rick	0
GJDrew	Rick	0
ravel	Rick	0
cdob63	Rick	1
patrickmeehan5	Rick	1
mparrault	Rick	1
yaifuz26	Rick	15

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
All of the above will survive season 6	28	28
Carl	14	14
Carol	22	22
Daryl	12	12
Glenn	22	22
Rick	3	2

Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	Yes	1
cdob63	Yes	2
patrickmeehan5	Yes	5
mparrault	Yes	5
GJDrew	Yes	35
yaifuz26	Yes	45
petth	Yes	50

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	20	21

Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
GJDrew	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	0
mparrault	Yes	0
petth	Yes	1
ravel	Yes	1
yaifuz26	Yes	65
patrickmeehan5	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	24	24

Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	Yes	7
mparrault	Yes	10
cdob63	Yes	11
GJDrew	Yes	13
yaifuz26	Yes	15
petth	Yes	60
patrickmeehan5	Yes	65

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	26	27

Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
GJDrew	Yes	25
mparrault	Yes	35
ravel	Yes	45
cdob63	Yes	68
yaifuz26	Yes	85
petth	Yes	100
patrickmeehan5	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	65	66

Environment

Closed: 1

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 185

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.117004	DariusX
2	-0.117004	000
3	-0.117004	Delorean
4	-0.117004	Clairvoyance
5	-0.117004	alistaircookie
6	-0.117004	tom.prigg
7	-0.117004	AlexisTocqueville
8	-0.116904	Gfrizzi
9	-0.116822	dkc
10	-0.116804	clinton
11	-0.116804	ravel
12	-0.116804	guesser

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.117004	000
2	-0.117004	Delorean
3	-0.117004	alistaircookie
4	-0.116904	Gfrizzi
5	-0.116804	clinton
6	-0.116804	ravel
7	-0.115413	Khalid
8	-0.115413	REGallahue
9	-0.115413	argon1
10	-0.115076	morrell
11	-0.114458	cdob63
12	-0.106795	Amir

Open: 2

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	Yes	65
Amir	Yes	65
alistaircookie	Yes	66
REGallahue	Yes	72
Khalid	Yes	75
morrell	Yes	80
cdob63	Yes	84
Gfrizzi	Yes	85
Delorean	Yes	85
clinton	Yes	89
argon1	Yes	90

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	78	74

Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
argon1	Yes	0
clinton	Yes	0
alistaircookie	Yes	0
Gfrizzi	Yes	2
REGallahue	Yes	3
Delorean	Yes	4
cdob63	Yes	4
morrell	Yes	5
Amir	Yes	5
ravel	Yes	9
Khalid	Yes	10

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	4	4

Iran

Closed: 9

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 201

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.448675	Bill
2	-0.427661	alterego
3	-0.427661	Socrates
4	-0.427661	Gregory
5	-0.423900	gust
6	-0.416900	Ron
7	-0.414039	thomas.r
8	-0.410052	brazilianwitchcraft
9	-0.408277	Delorean
10	-0.396248	Jay R
11	-0.389146	jatreit
12	-0.388274	Poorforecaster

Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?

Branch	Answer
No	Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law	No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand	No

# Forecasters: 86

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.814923	Falconer
2	-0.814547	GeneH
3	-0.804947	Wagle
4	-0.785418	johneyhb
5	-0.726712	einsteinjs
6	-0.726523	dms
7	-0.684241	Manfred
8	-0.663959	wlmsears
9	-0.651253	Raisinville
10	-0.642006	Dwight Smith
11	-0.574429	ESR
12	-0.559912	GJDrew

Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 69

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.125324	000
2	-0.125324	ravel
3	-0.125006	cdob63
4	-0.120986	donmars
5	-0.120324	jnord
6	-0.119806	UnderwaterPutin
7	-0.119806	Khalid
8	-0.117048	jatreit
9	-0.115524	gust
10	-0.111875	Anneinak
11	-0.108772	malcmur
12	-0.107889	GP Jim

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 37

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.566842	Jean-Pierre
2	-0.528271	Manfred
3	-0.521585	ESR
4	-0.488671	usajvbueno
5	-0.478985	donmars
6	-0.478985	jnord
7	-0.456957	Mroochyslav
8	-0.434699	clinton
9	-0.428985	Shahar
10	-0.428985	ZEUS
11	-0.420642	madre
12	-0.410414	Khalid

Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 122

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.188506	Agent0090
2	-0.188201	000
3	-0.185291	TVANKSTA
4	-0.185191	Khalid
5	-0.184458	jnord
6	-0.182363	cdob63
7	-0.180791	cmeinel
8	-0.180529	usajvbueno
9	-0.180529	GP Jim
10	-0.177358	sluggoman
11	-0.177358	JP
12	-0.176658	alistaircookie

Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 294

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.276187	slobodan
2	-0.275987	Asia
3	-0.275387	twodox
4	-0.267238	clinton
5	-0.266561	Rosario
6	-0.266057	mayflower
7	-0.264098	madre
8	-0.262787	ckruger
9	-0.262169	GoodieGoodie
10	-0.261974	JHooson
11	-0.261935	Manfred
12	-0.260767	cdob63

When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?

Branch	Answer
Before 1 March 2016	Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive	No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive	No
Not before 1 July 2016	No

# Forecasters: 146

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.958118	fifty-sixty
2	-1.925718	azharala
3	-1.851830	Wagle
4	-1.780945	Travist
5	-1.737334	Cansee
6	-1.645718	Shashank
7	-1.527385	Pachi
8	-1.474052	jsheth
9	-1.411223	john27
10	-1.395718	travelershope
11	-1.357334	jordanstone01
12	-1.339800	fatalis

Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 121

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.484838	slobodan
2	-0.484638	Kumar_Shah
3	-0.479838	Angturil
4	-0.479838	Ellieb
5	-0.475771	kormac
6	-0.473238	fron24
7	-0.464838	dcrosby51
8	-0.439838	Hadrain
9	-0.439838	rpirzada
10	-0.439838	Peyman2030
11	-0.439838	Mehrdad
12	-0.427704	arash

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 200

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.193305	Falconer
2	-0.193064	Spandrelbarca
3	-0.191790	redacted
4	-0.189949	KSpain
5	-0.189321	cdob63
6	-0.188305	Travist
7	-0.188305	fron24
8	-0.188305	JohnH
9	-0.188305	theprof
10	-0.186455	phdork
11	-0.186258	Vicrums
12	-0.183146	Liam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.776117	mparrault
2	-1.654682	Khalid
3	-1.526950	cdob63
4	-1.473965	Jean-Pierre
5	-1.439449	slobodan
6	-1.391127	000
7	-1.158899	Spandrelbarca
8	-0.977923	petth
9	-0.864946	malcmur
10	-0.750579	ravel

Open: 6

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
petth	Yes	0
malcmur	Yes	0
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
Khalid	Yes	0
ravel	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	1
mparrault	Yes	1
Spandrelbarca	Yes	11

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	1	1

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
petth	Yes	50
ravel	Yes	67
mparrault	Yes	75
Spandrelbarca	Yes	85
Jean-Pierre	Yes	99
cdob63	Yes	99
malcmur	Yes	100
slobodan	Yes	100
Khalid	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	86	81

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	2
malcmur	Yes	3
mparrault	Yes	4
Khalid	Yes	5
ravel	Yes	11
petth	Yes	35

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	7	7

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Khalid	No	10
petth	No	45
Spandrelbarca	No	50
cdob63	No	67
Jean-Pierre	No	80
mparrault	No	80
malcmur	No	90
slobodan	No	95
ravel	No	98
slobodan	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	0
ravel	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	1
malcmur	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	10
Jean-Pierre	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	10
mparrault	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	10
Spandrelbarca	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	25
cdob63	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	30
Khalid	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	35
petth	Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	50
malcmur	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	0
ravel	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	1
cdob63	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	3
petth	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	5
slobodan	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	5
Jean-Pierre	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	10
mparrault	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	10
Spandrelbarca	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	25
Khalid	Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	55

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
No	68	68
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	19	19
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran	13	13

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Yes	4
Spandrelbarca	Yes	15
petth	Yes	25
malcmur	Yes	30
ravel	Yes	31
mparrault	Yes	36
Jean-Pierre	Yes	55
Khalid	Yes	55
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	39	40

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
Khalid	Yes	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes	0
mparrault	Yes	1
malcmur	Yes	5
ravel	Yes	5
cdob63	Yes	9
petth	Yes	55

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	8	8

Latin America

Closed: 2

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?

Branch	Answer
Daniel Scioli	No
Mauricio Macri	Yes
Sergio Massa	No
Someone else	No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.667392	slobodan
2	-1.130566	Markmsl
3	-1.016340	achatkin
4	-1.012129	ogross
5	-0.916866	fleppy
6	-0.802839	mybaby4929
7	-0.802524	DSchultz
8	-0.775564	Dido
9	-0.745997	lindsey
10	-0.733760	Julius
11	-0.727012	danbazurto
12	-0.716208	974david

Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 138

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.604602	Chrisdo
2	-0.592102	DavidHume1776
3	-0.587352	Alex11
4	-0.579602	Mdmalseed
5	-0.576852	jkbick
6	-0.572102	starbright
7	-0.567102	geoseattleite
8	-0.554602	saesousa
9	-0.550227	drofter
10	-0.537102	malaquias
11	-0.529602	k13rkeg44rd
12	-0.525602	Jean-Pierre

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.667392	slobodan
2	-1.470481	ogross
3	-1.254296	jkbick
4	-1.132342	Dima K
5	-0.972452	patrickmeehan5
6	-0.925410	Davidoff400
7	-0.869938	boz
8	-0.816969	Jean-Pierre
9	-0.748679	dada
10	-0.746782	PianoPicasso
11	-0.716270	yaifuz26
12	-0.704757	christianmaas

Open: 2

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
christianmaas	Yes	1
dada	Yes	1
Dima K	Yes	1
PianoPicasso	Yes	4
boz	Yes	6
yaifuz26	Yes	15
jkbick	Yes	20
ogross	Yes	30
Davidoff400	Yes	35
patrickmeehan5	Yes	97

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	18	17

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
dada	Yes	1
slobodan	Yes	1
Davidoff400	Yes	5
Jean-Pierre	Yes	5
ogross	Yes	20
Dima K	Yes	20
boz	Yes	42
PianoPicasso	Yes	45
jkbick	Yes	50
patrickmeehan5	Yes	55
yaifuz26	Yes	65
christianmaas	Yes	74

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	32	32

Markets

Closed: 4

What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?

Branch	Answer
6.40 or more	Yes
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive	No
Less than 6.30	No
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40	No

# Forecasters: 340

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.238701	Rebel ran riot
2	-1.213703	patrickmeehan5
3	-1.063215	brightling
4	-1.009150	Bill
5	-0.995167	Investmentitos
6	-0.931671	Darren
7	-0.921602	tfolkes
8	-0.893866	Doina
9	-0.873036	Mroochyslav
10	-0.818662	JJMLP
11	-0.810939	dkandersen
12	-0.810939	petergreen

What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?

Branch	Answer
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive	Yes
Less than $34.00 per barrel	No
More than $40.00 per barrel	No

# Forecasters: 636

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.000374	hoopengarners
2	-0.991402	kdcnett
3	-0.987197	schliemann
4	-0.958145	achatkin
5	-0.928879	lookitsKB
6	-0.892711	Diplo
7	-0.880094	Jamison
8	-0.879814	Araasatrian
9	-0.869518	domesticenginerd
10	-0.852150	JHooson
11	-0.843645	Jfoster
12	-0.834487	laz

Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?

Branch	Answer
Adam Bain	No
Anthony Noto	No
Jack Dorsey	Yes
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year	No
Someone else	No

# Forecasters: 83

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.086151	Raisinville
2	-0.828338	clinton
3	-0.768231	malcmur
4	-0.754898	wlmsears
5	-0.597665	GJDrew
6	-0.589038	000
7	-0.543565	jumblies
8	-0.504658	KristiG
9	-0.503861	slobodan
10	-0.501565	Ziggysak
11	-0.492231	PlanetPanic
12	-0.474798	cdob63

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.739582	Crown
2	-0.719789	asolismon
3	-0.711524	Rettic, MBA
4	-0.706855	Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
5	-0.694582	bet10
6	-0.662792	Kyle_protho
7	-0.661111	Liza
8	-0.645409	mstlau
9	-0.637144	Mdmalseed
10	-0.637144	misti.graziani@gmail.com
11	-0.633218	Hector N
12	-0.633218	bodipb

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Markets

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.712499	patrickmeehan5
2	-1.444045	malcmur
3	-1.366373	slobodan
4	-1.216705	000
5	-1.178497	clinton
6	-1.029009	mparrault
7	-0.875545	dada
8	-0.875090	ravel
9	-0.765186	cdob63
10	-0.589390	jeremylichtman
11	-0.510196	praedico

Open: 4

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	0
patrickmeehan5	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	0
cdob63	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	32
malcmur	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	35
mparrault	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	38
praedico	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	40
clinton	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	42
dada	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	65
ravel	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	72
jeremylichtman	Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	80
jeremylichtman	Less than 125,000	0
dada	Less than 125,000	0
praedico	Less than 125,000	0
malcmur	Less than 125,000	0
slobodan	Less than 125,000	0
cdob63	Less than 125,000	0
clinton	Less than 125,000	0
mparrault	Less than 125,000	2
ravel	Less than 125,000	7
patrickmeehan5	Less than 125,000	100
patrickmeehan5	More than 250,000	0
jeremylichtman	More than 250,000	20
ravel	More than 250,000	21
dada	More than 250,000	35
clinton	More than 250,000	58
praedico	More than 250,000	60
mparrault	More than 250,000	60
malcmur	More than 250,000	65
cdob63	More than 250,000	68
slobodan	More than 250,000	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive	40	41
Less than 125,000	11	11
More than 250,000	49	48

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
dada	Yes	0
clinton	Yes	0
jeremylichtman	Yes	1
ravel	Yes	1
cdob63	Yes	1
malcmur	Yes	2
mparrault	Yes	2
praedico	Yes	5
patrickmeehan5	Yes	99
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	21	21

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
jeremylichtman	Yes	0
dada	Yes	0
praedico	Yes	0
malcmur	Yes	0
clinton	Yes	0
ravel	Yes	1
cdob63	Yes	1
mparrault	Yes	1
patrickmeehan5	Yes	20
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	12	12

Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	Yes	0
clinton	Yes	0
jeremylichtman	Yes	1
cdob63	Yes	1
dada	Yes	3
mparrault	Yes	3
praedico	Yes	5
malcmur	Yes	10
patrickmeehan5	Yes	10
ravel	Yes	15

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	5	5

Middle East

Closed: 1

How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?

Branch	Answer
A majority	Yes
A plurality	No
Not a plurality	No

# Forecasters: 154

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.293748	okhope18
2	-1.234406	dcdiamond
3	-1.013102	KSpain
4	-0.965664	Raisinville
5	-0.944200	KaiserSoze
6	-0.885844	admiralporky
7	-0.832296	Kleto
8	-0.831651	markusbehrend
9	-0.822941	Lucky
10	-0.819554	Costarican
11	-0.819554	kksartorius
12	-0.817819	Stewart Edwards

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Middle East

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.885844	admiralporky
2	-0.741090	Amir
3	-0.592619	kormac
4	-0.503751	nls
5	-0.172201	Heffalump
6	-0.164852	Spandrelbarca
7	-0.156167	Clairvoyance
8	-0.148723	000
9	-0.135981	mparrault
10	-0.132594	cmeinel
11	-0.099533	Jean-Pierre
12	-0.096062	slobodan

Open: 5

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
admiralporky	No	40
Jean-Pierre	No	90
Heffalump	No	90
cmeinel	No	94
kormac	No	95
Amir	No	97
nls	No	98
mparrault	No	98
Spandrelbarca	No	99
Clairvoyance	No	100
slobodan	No	100
Clairvoyance	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	0
slobodan	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	0
Amir	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	0
nls	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	1
Spandrelbarca	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	1
cmeinel	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	2
mparrault	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	2
Jean-Pierre	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	5
Heffalump	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	5
kormac	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	5
admiralporky	Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	30
Clairvoyance	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	0
slobodan	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	0
kormac	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	0
mparrault	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	0
nls	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	1
Heffalump	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	3
Amir	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	3
cmeinel	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	4
Jean-Pierre	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	5
admiralporky	Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	30
admiralporky	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
nls	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
Jean-Pierre	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
Clairvoyance	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
cmeinel	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
slobodan	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
kormac	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
mparrault	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
Amir	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0
Heffalump	Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	1
admiralporky	Yes, Someone else	0
nls	Yes, Someone else	0
Jean-Pierre	Yes, Someone else	0
Clairvoyance	Yes, Someone else	0
cmeinel	Yes, Someone else	0
slobodan	Yes, Someone else	0
kormac	Yes, Someone else	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, Someone else	0
mparrault	Yes, Someone else	0
Amir	Yes, Someone else	0
Heffalump	Yes, Someone else	1

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
No	91	91
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef	5	5
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman	4	4
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz	0	0
Yes, Someone else	0	0

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
Amir	Yes	0
Clairvoyance	Yes	5
mparrault	Yes	5
cmeinel	Yes	7
nls	Yes	10
kormac	Yes	10
Heffalump	Yes	13
Spandrelbarca	Yes	13
admiralporky	Yes	22

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	8	8

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
admiralporky	No	0
slobodan	No	0
nls	No	52
Heffalump	No	68
kormac	No	80
Clairvoyance	No	85
mparrault	No	91
Jean-Pierre	No	92
cmeinel	No	95
Spandrelbarca	No	95
Amir	No	100
Clairvoyance	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	0
cmeinel	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	0
Amir	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	0
Jean-Pierre	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	1
mparrault	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	1
nls	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	2
Heffalump	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	3
kormac	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	5
admiralporky	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	15
slobodan	Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	100
slobodan	Yes, only Article 4	0
Amir	Yes, only Article 4	0
Jean-Pierre	Yes, only Article 4	5
cmeinel	Yes, only Article 4	5
Spandrelbarca	Yes, only Article 4	5
mparrault	Yes, only Article 4	7
kormac	Yes, only Article 4	10
Clairvoyance	Yes, only Article 4	15
Heffalump	Yes, only Article 4	27
nls	Yes, only Article 4	40
admiralporky	Yes, only Article 4	80
Clairvoyance	Yes, only Article 5	0
cmeinel	Yes, only Article 5	0
slobodan	Yes, only Article 5	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, only Article 5	0
Amir	Yes, only Article 5	0
mparrault	Yes, only Article 5	1
Jean-Pierre	Yes, only Article 5	2
Heffalump	Yes, only Article 5	2
admiralporky	Yes, only Article 5	5
kormac	Yes, only Article 5	5
nls	Yes, only Article 5	6

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
No	69	68
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5	12	12
Yes, only Article 4	18	18
Yes, only Article 5	2	2

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Clairvoyance	Yes	0
cmeinel	Yes	5
mparrault	Yes	5
Jean-Pierre	Yes	7
nls	Yes	10
Spandrelbarca	Yes	15
kormac	Yes	30
Heffalump	Yes	60
admiralporky	Yes	70
Amir	Yes	75
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	34	35

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	3
cmeinel	Yes	20
mparrault	Yes	45
Clairvoyance	Yes	50
Heffalump	Yes	50
Amir	Yes	51
nls	Yes	55
kormac	Yes	75
admiralporky	Yes	80
Spandrelbarca	Yes	95
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	57	57

North America

Closed: 2

Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?

Branch	Answer
Conservative	No
Liberal	Yes
New Democratic Party	No
Other	No

# Forecasters: 135

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.171706	Falconer
2	-1.102249	NHUNGUYEN
3	-0.847992	Raisinville
4	-0.744564	ed3
5	-0.681578	GJDrew
6	-0.588755	Forecaster1971
7	-0.564292	Rote
8	-0.540049	einsteinjs
9	-0.524206	Khalid
10	-0.515710	p_odo
11	-0.515648	khoshea
12	-0.492153	patrickmeehan5

Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.150136	Rebel ran riot
2	-0.150136	Praxis
3	-0.150136	Jamison
4	-0.149936	flc79
5	-0.149780	mayflower
6	-0.147305	000
7	-0.147271	Dwight Smith
8	-0.146936	moria
9	-0.145351	DoctorWho
10	-0.145136	ricofig
11	-0.145136	GottaWearShades
12	-0.144873	Falconer

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North America

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.316579	Falconer
2	-0.847992	Raisinville
3	-0.756784	GJDrew
4	-0.744564	ed3
5	-0.627708	p_odo
6	-0.605262	patrickmeehan5
7	-0.589885	cdob63
8	-0.588755	Forecaster1971
9	-0.572298	Rote
10	-0.542590	einsteinjs
11	-0.537919	kbub
12	-0.515648	khoshea

Open: 0

North Korea

Closed: 3

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 260

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.594570	dowser
2	-0.588922	redacted
3	-0.577257	catmob
4	-0.576413	Konrad
5	-0.570101	Diplo
6	-0.565070	Anneinak
7	-0.559343	Rote
8	-0.558945	rebeccams
9	-0.557351	974david
10	-0.555618	Rebel ran riot
11	-0.550788	Hammer Time
12	-0.548445	aaron

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 196

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.535603	lsgold7
2	-0.531094	dowser
3	-0.515042	slobodan
4	-0.505919	rbertoni01
5	-0.505130	petth
6	-0.488024	azureskai
7	-0.465217	dukeglk
8	-0.465217	sandyr
9	-0.462761	MAA414
10	-0.455393	hyperionok
11	-0.449252	Lucky
12	-0.449252	maxmersinger

Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 100

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.180665	einsteinjs
2	-0.180665	slobodan
3	-0.180665	agent23421
4	-0.180465	redacted
5	-0.180313	jkbick
6	-0.180160	Sjens
7	-0.180065	scholarandcat
8	-0.179865	superfrog
9	-0.178722	austerity
10	-0.178046	Jean-Pierre
11	-0.177560	dowser
12	-0.177417	Rene

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North Korea

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.303224	dowser
2	-1.151355	slobodan
3	-1.097375	petth
4	-0.925000	lsgold7
5	-0.898515	Anneinak
6	-0.856419	clinton
7	-0.856025	austerity
8	-0.831951	cdob63
9	-0.785615	ravel
10	-0.761080	morrell
11	-0.711383	Sjens
12	-0.639944	einsteinjs

Open: 3

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
clinton	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	18
Sjens	Yes	20
petth	Yes	25
ravel	Yes	55
austerity	Yes	70
morrell	Yes	70
dowser	Yes	85
lsgold7	Yes	87
Anneinak	Yes	100
slobodan	Yes	100
einsteinjs	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	61	61

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Anneinak	Yes	0
dowser	Yes	0
slobodan	Yes	0
Sjens	Yes	1
clinton	Yes	1
einsteinjs	Yes	2
morrell	Yes	4
ravel	Yes	4
lsgold7	Yes	7
cdob63	Yes	12
austerity	Yes	15
petth	Yes	55

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	8	8

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Sjens	Yes	18
petth	Yes	25
ravel	Yes	28
cdob63	Yes	41
dowser	Yes	55
morrell	Yes	75
Anneinak	Yes	88
einsteinjs	Yes	88
austerity	Yes	95
lsgold7	Yes	96
slobodan	Yes	100
clinton	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	67	62

Russia

Closed: 4

Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 43

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.752141	Wagle
2	-0.464329	jeremylichtman
3	-0.464329	mrcrea
4	-0.444566	Rebel ran riot
5	-0.413391	patrickmeehan5
6	-0.349279	Manfred
7	-0.309641	Jay R
8	-0.304954	vjp22
9	-0.298704	hyperionok
10	-0.297141	skepticalforecaster
11	-0.293516	Hideous Cheese Blunder
12	-0.286829	Konrad

How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

Branch	Answer
Majority	Yes
Not a Plurality	No
Plurality	No

# Forecasters: 92

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.580368	Falconer
2	-1.164118	TVANKSTA
3	-1.097651	fleppy
4	-1.094109	fewchur
5	-1.051400	farmorit
6	-1.047451	put3000
7	-1.042868	shador13
8	-1.024900	klajoklis
9	-1.001400	Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
10	-0.928796	tylerh
11	-0.917868	arnbold
12	-0.912963	gkiljan

Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 136

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.901566	slobodan
2	-0.892945	Falconer
3	-0.887849	redacted
4	-0.875704	KSpain
5	-0.832600	CR
6	-0.826825	Ioana
7	-0.814321	mike97mike
8	-0.801566	qsmithtx
9	-0.788118	Titan7160
10	-0.767945	broflovsky
11	-0.761452	Jean-Pierre
12	-0.751652	controllerzhu

Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 96

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.102675	Falconer
2	-0.102675	einsteinjs
3	-0.102675	000
4	-0.102675	Rather Witless Design
5	-0.102675	dada
6	-0.102675	kormac
7	-0.102675	k13rkeg44rd
8	-0.102625	redacted
9	-0.102598	clinton
10	-0.102556	scholarandcat
11	-0.102506	cdob63
12	-0.102475	Raisinville

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Russia

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.466399	malcmur
2	-1.144176	patrickmeehan5
3	-1.052872	slobodan
4	-0.330628	petth
5	-0.213984	000
6	-0.212760	cdob63
7	-0.101606	dominich
8	-0.072167	Spandrelbarca
9	-0.026780	mparrault

Open: 9

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	0	0
patrickmeehan5	0	0
petth	0	20
Spandrelbarca	0	55
dominich	0	70
malcmur	0	75
cdob63	0	82
mparrault	0	85
petth	All	0
dominich	All	0
slobodan	All	0
cdob63	All	0
patrickmeehan5	All	0
Spandrelbarca	All	0
malcmur	All	5
mparrault	All	6
slobodan	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	0
patrickmeehan5	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	0
mparrault	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	7
malcmur	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	15
cdob63	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	17
dominich	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	30
Spandrelbarca	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	40
petth	Between 1 and 5, inclusive	50
dominich	More than five, but less than all	0
cdob63	More than five, but less than all	1
mparrault	More than five, but less than all	2
malcmur	More than five, but less than all	5
Spandrelbarca	More than five, but less than all	5
petth	More than five, but less than all	30
slobodan	More than five, but less than all	100
patrickmeehan5	More than five, but less than all	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
0	48	49
All	1	1
Between 1 and 5, inclusive	20	20
More than five, but less than all	30	30

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Yes	1
malcmur	Yes	3
mparrault	Yes	8
dominich	Yes	10
Spandrelbarca	Yes	15
patrickmeehan5	Yes	33
petth	Yes	40
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	26	26

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
malcmur	Yes	10
patrickmeehan5	Yes	20
cdob63	Yes	24
Spandrelbarca	Yes	25
dominich	Yes	30
mparrault	Yes	30
petth	Yes	75
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	39	40

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
malcmur	Yes	0
dominich	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	1
mparrault	Yes	1
Spandrelbarca	Yes	10
patrickmeehan5	Yes	20
petth	Yes	55
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	23	23

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
petth	Yes	15
malcmur	Yes	15
Spandrelbarca	Yes	15
cdob63	Yes	28
mparrault	Yes	30
dominich	Yes	60
patrickmeehan5	Yes	90
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	44	45

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Spandrelbarca	Yes	5
petth	Yes	35
cdob63	Yes	38
mparrault	Yes	60
dominich	Yes	65
malcmur	Yes	70
patrickmeehan5	Yes	85
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	57	53

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
cdob63	Yes	2
malcmur	Yes	6
Spandrelbarca	Yes	8
mparrault	Yes	9
dominich	Yes	10
patrickmeehan5	Yes	25
petth	Yes	45
slobodan	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	26	26

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	No	0
petth	No	55
Spandrelbarca	No	75
patrickmeehan5	No	90
mparrault	No	95
cdob63	No	99
malcmur	No	100
dominich	No	100
malcmur	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
dominich	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
slobodan	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
cdob63	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
patrickmeehan5	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
Spandrelbarca	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	0
mparrault	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	1
petth	Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	10
malcmur	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	0
dominich	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	0
cdob63	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	1
mparrault	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	4
patrickmeehan5	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	10
Spandrelbarca	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	25
petth	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	35
slobodan	Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
No	77	76
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine	1	2
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine	22	22

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	0
patrickmeehan5	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	0
dominich	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	40
petth	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	55
Spandrelbarca	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	65
mparrault	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	73
malcmur	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	75
cdob63	At least one-half but less than two-thirds	96
patrickmeehan5	At least two-thirds of all seats	0
cdob63	At least two-thirds of all seats	4
malcmur	At least two-thirds of all seats	5
mparrault	At least two-thirds of all seats	20
petth	At least two-thirds of all seats	25
Spandrelbarca	At least two-thirds of all seats	35
dominich	At least two-thirds of all seats	60
slobodan	At least two-thirds of all seats	100
dominich	Less than half	0
slobodan	Less than half	0
cdob63	Less than half	0
Spandrelbarca	Less than half	0
mparrault	Less than half	7
petth	Less than half	20
malcmur	Less than half	20
patrickmeehan5	Less than half	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
At least one-half but less than two-thirds	50	51
At least two-thirds of all seats	31	31
Less than half	18	18

Sports

Closed: 1

Who will win the World Series?

Branch	Answer
A team from the American League	Yes
A team from the National League	No

# Forecasters: 191

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.907805	slobodan
2	-0.901973	Rebel ran riot
3	-0.884169	Mroochyslav
4	-0.875624	jeremylichtman
5	-0.856591	patrickmeehan5
6	-0.850351	sawyerwhip
7	-0.850351	BenP
8	-0.850351	joenb
9	-0.850351	ShotintheDark
10	-0.838176	cbrophy
11	-0.833805	Gor999
12	-0.820896	BestGuess

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Sports

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.907805	slobodan
2	-0.856591	patrickmeehan5
3	-0.731624	Delorean
4	-0.503747	dada
5	-0.411260	khoshea
6	-0.392714	yaifuz26
7	-0.375078	KSpain
8	-0.344351	ravel
9	-0.315791	000
10	-0.264533	Davidoff400
11	-0.237624	JP
12	-0.047805	kormac

Open: 2

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Davidoff400	Yes	55
ravel	Yes	93
yaifuz26	Yes	95
KSpain	Yes	95
dada	Yes	99
slobodan	Yes	99
khoshea	Yes	99
JP	Yes	100
Delorean	Yes	100
kormac	Yes	100
patrickmeehan5	Yes	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	94	94

Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
slobodan	Yes	0
dada	Yes	5
yaifuz26	Yes	15
ravel	Yes	21
JP	Yes	25
kormac	Yes	40
KSpain	Yes	50
patrickmeehan5	Yes	50
Davidoff400	Yes	55
Delorean	Yes	60
khoshea	Yes	75

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	36	39

Syria

Closed: 3

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 111

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.202808	Anneinak
2	-0.202808	cmeinel
3	-0.202808	Falconer
4	-0.202808	einsteinjs
5	-0.202808	September
6	-0.202808	clinton
7	-0.202808	Spandrelbarca
8	-0.202808	000
9	-0.202808	Hammer Time
10	-0.202808	dowser
11	-0.202808	Agent0090
12	-0.202808	madre

As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?

Branch	Answer
1 million or more	Yes
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive	No
Less than 560,000	No
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million	No

# Forecasters: 328

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.495237	slobodan
2	-1.475237	thomas.r
3	-1.375237	Jamison
4	-1.272437	vasil
5	-1.257445	Cdrapp
6	-1.113237	jimmccue
7	-1.085793	Rhysbros
8	-1.062117	afoyfs
9	-0.998537	jeremylichtman
10	-0.974437	zwzhang
11	-0.906837	jimglynn
12	-0.882152	lydia.albanis

Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 586

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.077117	UnderwaterPutin
2	-0.077117	dominich
3	-0.077117	grossz18
4	-0.077117	Heffalump
5	-0.077117	cmeinel
6	-0.077117	Falconer
7	-0.077117	einsteinjs
8	-0.077117	Khalid
9	-0.077117	vernscot
10	-0.077117	Delorean
11	-0.077117	slobodan
12	-0.077117	Rebel ran riot

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Syria

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.598925	Jean-Pierre
2	-0.399234	000
3	-0.274495	ckruger
4	-0.258114	cdob63

Open: 6

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ckruger	Yes	1
Jean-Pierre	Yes	5
cdob63	Yes	26

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	11	11

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	0
ckruger	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	2

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	1	1

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ckruger	Yes	65
Jean-Pierre	Yes	66
cdob63	Yes	71

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	67	76

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ckruger	Yes	5
Jean-Pierre	Yes	8
cdob63	Yes	13

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	9	9

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Before 13 March 2016	0
ckruger	Before 13 March 2016	0
cdob63	Before 13 March 2016	0
ckruger	Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive	2
cdob63	Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive	9
Jean-Pierre	Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive	13
Jean-Pierre	Not before 1 July 2016	87
cdob63	Not before 1 July 2016	91
ckruger	Not before 1 July 2016	98

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Before 13 March 2016	0	0
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive	8	8
Not before 1 July 2016	92	92

Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
Jean-Pierre	Yes	5
cdob63	Yes	58
ckruger	Yes	80

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	48	46

US Presidential election

Closed: 8

Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 302

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.283507	donmars
2	-0.283342	einsteinjs
3	-0.282137	The Brown Recluse
4	-0.281471	Buffalo
5	-0.277822	Lucky
6	-0.277822	LeftCoastRightBrain
7	-0.277822	Swede
8	-0.277822	BestGuess
9	-0.277822	Atyler83
10	-0.272890	mmccaule
11	-0.272890	VagabondJim
12	-0.272890	usajvbueno

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 420

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.282756	JeanP
2	-0.277756	Jonah B52
3	-0.275592	arnbold
4	-0.275035	redacted
5	-0.271562	patrickmeehan5
6	-0.267830	Asteras
7	-0.267830	Rebel ran riot
8	-0.267636	SteveBoothButterfield
9	-0.264815	Spandrelbarca
10	-0.264099	legant
11	-0.264099	JoeLakeBSJ2LC
12	-0.264099	WGlazer

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 1765

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.500981	richtyge
2	-0.494507	hoopengarners
3	-0.494507	gmyu
4	-0.493134	patrickmeehan5
5	-0.490986	mayflower
6	-0.490986	Woodasch
7	-0.490986	legant
8	-0.490986	JRoy
9	-0.490986	Dougefresh
10	-0.489648	PowerQuilter
11	-0.488592	Hammer Time
12	-0.488592	scientifics

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

Branch	Answer
Ben Carson	No
Carly Fiorina	No
Chris Christie	No
Donald Trump	No
Jeb Bush	No
Jim Gilmore	No
John Kasich	No
Marco Rubio	No
Mike Huckabee	No
Rand Paul	No
Rick Santorum	No
Ted Cruz	Yes

# Forecasters: 1086

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-3.240460	maxharris
2	-2.944160	austerity
3	-2.853260	Peter Katzenfisch
4	-2.816960	moscow25
5	-2.794593	bdenison
6	-2.740827	sh517
7	-2.709160	mattdabrowski
8	-2.707493	jcurry1
9	-2.665827	budwiser
10	-2.654160	taylorcp
11	-2.654160	web
12	-2.654160	anthony_nyc

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

Branch	Answer
Bernie Sanders	No
Hillary Clinton	Yes
Martin O Malley	No

# Forecasters: 543

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-1.034374	slobodan
2	-1.034374	Rhysbros
3	-1.034374	AlexisTocqueville
4	-1.034374	JHH
5	-1.032207	Pinch_Benedict
6	-1.031607	dkc
7	-1.026674	BlindWilliam
8	-1.025207	Skybullet
9	-1.019674	einsteinjs
10	-1.017507	Vuk_Vukovic
11	-0.977607	lsgold7
12	-0.966874	argon1

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

Branch	Answer
Ben Carson	No
Carly Fiorina	No
Chris Christie	No
Donald Trump	Yes
Jeb Bush	No
Jim Gilmore	No
John Kasich	No
Marco Rubio	No
Mike Huckabee	No
Rand Paul	No
Rick Santorum	No
Ted Cruz	No

# Forecasters: 711

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-3.350271	slobodan
2	-3.350271	alistaircookie
3	-3.350271	AlexisTocqueville
4	-3.349302	ckruger
5	-3.345471	taxesa1
6	-3.342860	jwildberger
7	-3.320271	ThreePredictor
8	-3.318713	Dima K
9	-3.318671	Vuk_Vukovic
10	-3.315450	RickRock
11	-3.314902	Iainhen99
12	-3.310271	Mroochyslav

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?

Branch	Answer
Bernie Sanders	No
Hillary Clinton	Yes

# Forecasters: 372

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-0.734940	Anneinak
2	-0.734940	clinton
3	-0.734940	Jean-Pierre
4	-0.734940	dowser
5	-0.734940	slobodan
6	-0.734940	scholarandcat
7	-0.734940	chackpal
8	-0.734940	DChristensen
9	-0.734940	willmartin
10	-0.734940	Ice_Panther7
11	-0.734940	Stmrb05
12	-0.734877	MaRott

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?

Branch	Answer
Ben Carson	No
Donald Trump	Yes
Jeb Bush	No
Jim Gilmore	No
John Kasich	No
Marco Rubio	No
Ted Cruz	No

# Forecasters: 637

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-2.102965	slobodan
2	-2.102965	alistaircookie
3	-2.097849	clinton
4	-2.081912	DChristensen
5	-2.060333	Dwight Smith
6	-2.055070	swanked
7	-2.011933	Aches
8	-2.004691	Stmrb05
9	-1.972965	dowser
10	-1.972123	BlueSteel
11	-1.959617	Jean-Pierre
12	-1.952438	Laeve

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster US Presidential election

Rank	Accuracy	Forecaster
1	-8.726924	vox vox
2	-8.611191	ckruger
3	-7.675277	cdob63
4	-7.323830	000
5	-7.108089	ravel
6	-7.033450	dada
7	-6.600029	Cora
8	-6.342771	ESR
9	-6.318066	lindsey91
10	-5.954078	dowser
11	-5.465459	GJDrew
12	-5.148412	tomh

Open: 8

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
vox vox	Ben Carson	0
lindsey91	Ben Carson	0
dada	Ben Carson	0
GJDrew	Ben Carson	0
ESR	Ben Carson	0
ckruger	Ben Carson	0
dowser	Ben Carson	0
ravel	Ben Carson	0
cdob63	Ben Carson	0
Cora	Ben Carson	0
tomh	Ben Carson	0
vox vox	Carly Fiorina	0
lindsey91	Carly Fiorina	0
dada	Carly Fiorina	0
GJDrew	Carly Fiorina	0
ESR	Carly Fiorina	0
ckruger	Carly Fiorina	0
dowser	Carly Fiorina	0
ravel	Carly Fiorina	0
cdob63	Carly Fiorina	0
Cora	Carly Fiorina	0
tomh	Carly Fiorina	0
tomh	Donald Trump	55
cdob63	Donald Trump	56
lindsey91	Donald Trump	64
dowser	Donald Trump	65
Cora	Donald Trump	65
GJDrew	Donald Trump	66
ESR	Donald Trump	66
vox vox	Donald Trump	74
ravel	Donald Trump	90
ckruger	Donald Trump	94
dada	Donald Trump	95
vox vox	Jeb Bush	0
lindsey91	Jeb Bush	0
dada	Jeb Bush	0
GJDrew	Jeb Bush	0
ESR	Jeb Bush	0
ckruger	Jeb Bush	0
dowser	Jeb Bush	0
ravel	Jeb Bush	0
cdob63	Jeb Bush	0
Cora	Jeb Bush	0
tomh	Jeb Bush	0
dada	Marco Rubio	0
ckruger	Marco Rubio	0
dowser	Marco Rubio	0
ravel	Marco Rubio	0
tomh	Marco Rubio	0
vox vox	Marco Rubio	5
lindsey91	Marco Rubio	7
GJDrew	Marco Rubio	8
cdob63	Marco Rubio	11
Cora	Marco Rubio	15
ESR	Marco Rubio	16
dada	None of the above	0
ckruger	None of the above	0
cdob63	None of the above	0
Cora	None of the above	0
tomh	None of the above	0
vox vox	None of the above	2
ESR	None of the above	2
GJDrew	None of the above	10
ravel	None of the above	10
lindsey91	None of the above	13
dowser	None of the above	20
ravel	Ted Cruz	0
dada	Ted Cruz	5
ckruger	Ted Cruz	6
dowser	Ted Cruz	15
lindsey91	Ted Cruz	16
GJDrew	Ted Cruz	16
ESR	Ted Cruz	16
vox vox	Ted Cruz	19
Cora	Ted Cruz	20
cdob63	Ted Cruz	33
tomh	Ted Cruz	45

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Ben Carson	0	0
Carly Fiorina	0	0
Donald Trump	72	70
Jeb Bush	0	0
Marco Rubio	6	16
None of the above	5	8
Ted Cruz	17	6

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ckruger	Bernie Sanders	0
cdob63	Bernie Sanders	0
vox vox	Bernie Sanders	1
dada	Bernie Sanders	5
dowser	Bernie Sanders	5
lindsey91	Bernie Sanders	8
ESR	Bernie Sanders	10
tomh	Bernie Sanders	10
Cora	Bernie Sanders	15
GJDrew	Bernie Sanders	20
ravel	Bernie Sanders	59
ravel	Hillary Clinton	41
GJDrew	Hillary Clinton	80
Cora	Hillary Clinton	85
ESR	Hillary Clinton	90
tomh	Hillary Clinton	90
lindsey91	Hillary Clinton	92
dada	Hillary Clinton	95
dowser	Hillary Clinton	95
vox vox	Hillary Clinton	99
ckruger	Hillary Clinton	100
cdob63	Hillary Clinton	100
vox vox	Martin O Malley	0
lindsey91	Martin O Malley	0
dada	Martin O Malley	0
GJDrew	Martin O Malley	0
ESR	Martin O Malley	0
ckruger	Martin O Malley	0
dowser	Martin O Malley	0
ravel	Martin O Malley	0
cdob63	Martin O Malley	0
Cora	Martin O Malley	0
tomh	Martin O Malley	0

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Bernie Sanders	12	11
Hillary Clinton	88	89
Martin O Malley	0	0

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
lindsey91	Yes	60
GJDrew	Yes	60
ESR	Yes	68
dowser	Yes	70
tomh	Yes	80
cdob63	Yes	81
Cora	Yes	85
dada	Yes	88
ravel	Yes	89
vox vox	Yes	90
ckruger	Yes	95

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	79	88

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	A Democrat	33
GJDrew	A Democrat	53
dowser	A Democrat	55
ESR	A Democrat	58
lindsey91	A Democrat	65
Cora	A Democrat	65
tomh	A Democrat	75
vox vox	A Democrat	80
dada	A Democrat	90
ckruger	A Democrat	90
cdob63	A Democrat	92
cdob63	A Republican	8
dada	A Republican	10
ckruger	A Republican	10
vox vox	A Republican	20
tomh	A Republican	25
lindsey91	A Republican	33
Cora	A Republican	35
ESR	A Republican	42
GJDrew	A Republican	44
dowser	A Republican	45
ravel	A Republican	58
vox vox	Other	0
dada	Other	0
ESR	Other	0
ckruger	Other	0
dowser	Other	0
cdob63	Other	0
Cora	Other	0
tomh	Other	0
lindsey91	Other	2
GJDrew	Other	3
ravel	Other	9

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
A Democrat	69	74
A Republican	30	24
Other	1	2

(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ravel	Democrat	0
dowser	Democrat	55
GJDrew	Democrat	60
ESR	Democrat	66
dada	Democrat	73
Cora	Democrat	75
lindsey91	Democrat	80
vox vox	Democrat	85
cdob63	Democrat	97
ckruger	Democrat	98
tomh	Democrat	99
vox vox	Other	0
ESR	Other	0
ckruger	Other	0
dowser	Other	0
ravel	Other	0
cdob63	Other	0
Cora	Other	0
tomh	Other	0
lindsey91	Other	1
GJDrew	Other	5
dada	Other	13
tomh	Republican	1
ckruger	Republican	2
cdob63	Republican	3
dada	Republican	14
vox vox	Republican	15
lindsey91	Republican	19
Cora	Republican	25
ESR	Republican	34
GJDrew	Republican	35
dowser	Republican	45
ravel	Republican	100

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Democrat	72	69
Other	2	2
Republican	27	29

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
ckruger	Yes	0
cdob63	Yes	5
vox vox	Yes	22
ESR	Yes	33
ravel	Yes	41
dowser	Yes	45
lindsey91	Yes	52
dada	Yes	52
GJDrew	Yes	55
Cora	Yes	60
tomh	Yes	85

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes	41	39

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
dada	Donald Trump	25
ESR	Donald Trump	35
dowser	Donald Trump	38
lindsey91	Donald Trump	40
Cora	Donald Trump	40
GJDrew	Donald Trump	45
ckruger	Donald Trump	45
cdob63	Donald Trump	48
vox vox	Donald Trump	50
ravel	Donald Trump	53
tomh	Donald Trump	60
ravel	John Kasich	35
tomh	John Kasich	40
cdob63	John Kasich	49
vox vox	John Kasich	50
Cora	John Kasich	50
lindsey91	John Kasich	55
GJDrew	John Kasich	55
ckruger	John Kasich	55
dowser	John Kasich	56
ESR	John Kasich	64
dada	John Kasich	75
vox vox	Marco Rubio	0
lindsey91	Marco Rubio	0
dada	Marco Rubio	0
GJDrew	Marco Rubio	0
ESR	Marco Rubio	0
ckruger	Marco Rubio	0
ravel	Marco Rubio	0
cdob63	Marco Rubio	0
tomh	Marco Rubio	0
dowser	Marco Rubio	1
Cora	Marco Rubio	5
vox vox	Ted Cruz	0
dada	Ted Cruz	0
GJDrew	Ted Cruz	0
ckruger	Ted Cruz	0
tomh	Ted Cruz	0
ESR	Ted Cruz	1
cdob63	Ted Cruz	3
lindsey91	Ted Cruz	5
dowser	Ted Cruz	5
Cora	Ted Cruz	5
ravel	Ted Cruz	12

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Donald Trump	44	48
John Kasich	53	52
Marco Rubio	1	0
Ted Cruz	3	0

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?

Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000

Forecaster	Branch	Prediction
dowser	Donald Trump	58
GJDrew	Donald Trump	60
ravel	Donald Trump	65
ESR	Donald Trump	70
Cora	Donald Trump	70
tomh	Donald Trump	75
lindsey91	Donald Trump	78
cdob63	Donald Trump	80
vox vox	Donald Trump	82
dada	Donald Trump	89
ckruger	Donald Trump	90
vox vox	John Kasich	0
lindsey91	John Kasich	0
dada	John Kasich	0
GJDrew	John Kasich	0
ESR	John Kasich	0
ckruger	John Kasich	0
dowser	John Kasich	0
ravel	John Kasich	0
cdob63	John Kasich	0
Cora	John Kasich	0
tomh	John Kasich	0
ckruger	Marco Rubio	5
dada	Marco Rubio	11
cdob63	Marco Rubio	11
vox vox	Marco Rubio	15
ravel	Marco Rubio	15
lindsey91	Marco Rubio	19
Cora	Marco Rubio	25
tomh	Marco Rubio	25
ESR	Marco Rubio	30
dowser	Marco Rubio	31
GJDrew	Marco Rubio	40
dada	Ted Cruz	0
GJDrew	Ted Cruz	0
ESR	Ted Cruz	0
tomh	Ted Cruz	0
vox vox	Ted Cruz	3
lindsey91	Ted Cruz	3
ckruger	Ted Cruz	5
Cora	Ted Cruz	5
cdob63	Ted Cruz	9
dowser	Ted Cruz	11
ravel	Ted Cruz	20

Average of best cluster forecasters

Branch	Best answer 3/7/16	Prior answer 3/5/16
Donald Trump	74	85
John Kasich	0	4
Marco Rubio	21	8
Ted Cruz	5	3

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