Africa
Closed: 1
Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Amama Mbabazi | No |
Kizza Besigye | No |
None of the above | No |
Yoweri Museveni | Yes |
# Forecasters: 223
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.503043 | Clairvoyance |
2 | -0.503043 | jlodge01 |
3 | -0.502808 | einsteinjs |
4 | -0.502691 | Modog814 |
5 | -0.502643 | Spandrelbarca |
6 | -0.502408 | cdob63 |
7 | -0.502319 | GeneH |
8 | -0.501905 | redacted |
9 | -0.500808 | Scooozai |
10 | -0.499574 | clinton |
11 | -0.499188 | chackpal |
12 | -0.497932 | paul_the_octopus |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.502808 | einsteinjs |
2 | -0.502643 | Spandrelbarca |
3 | -0.502408 | cdob63 |
4 | -0.500808 | Scooozai |
5 | -0.499574 | clinton |
6 | -0.499188 | chackpal |
7 | -0.496870 | 000 |
8 | -0.496070 | Sneaky_Pete531 |
9 | -0.493732 | petth |
10 | -0.468332 | dkc |
11 | -0.434077 | AlexisTocqueville |
12 | -0.433505 | Sjens |
Open: 3
How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Sjens | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 0 |
einsteinjs | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 0 |
clinton | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 0 |
dkc | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 1 |
chackpal | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 3 |
cdob63 | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 7 |
AlexisTocqueville | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 15 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 30 |
Scooozai | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 33 |
Spandrelbarca | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 34 |
petth | Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 35 |
petth | Less than 10,000 | 50 |
Scooozai | Less than 10,000 | 55 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Less than 10,000 | 60 |
Spandrelbarca | Less than 10,000 | 66 |
AlexisTocqueville | Less than 10,000 | 85 |
cdob63 | Less than 10,000 | 92 |
chackpal | Less than 10,000 | 96 |
dkc | Less than 10,000 | 99 |
Sjens | Less than 10,000 | 100 |
einsteinjs | Less than 10,000 | 100 |
clinton | Less than 10,000 | 100 |
Sjens | More than 15,000 | 0 |
AlexisTocqueville | More than 15,000 | 0 |
dkc | More than 15,000 | 0 |
einsteinjs | More than 15,000 | 0 |
clinton | More than 15,000 | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | More than 15,000 | 0 |
chackpal | More than 15,000 | 1 |
cdob63 | More than 15,000 | 1 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | More than 15,000 | 10 |
Scooozai | More than 15,000 | 12 |
petth | More than 15,000 | 15 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 14 | 15 |
Less than 10,000 | 82 | 82 |
More than 15,000 | 4 | 3 |
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Sjens | Yes | 21 |
cdob63 | Yes | 29 |
einsteinjs | Yes | 38 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Yes | 43 |
chackpal | Yes | 50 |
clinton | Yes | 51 |
AlexisTocqueville | Yes | 55 |
petth | Yes | 60 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 65 |
Scooozai | Yes | 85 |
dkc | Yes | 90 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 53 | 53 |
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Sjens | Yes | 1 |
dkc | Yes | 3 |
AlexisTocqueville | Yes | 5 |
clinton | Yes | 5 |
cdob63 | Yes | 7 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Yes | 10 |
chackpal | Yes | 13 |
einsteinjs | Yes | 14 |
Scooozai | Yes | 35 |
petth | Yes | 50 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 75 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 20 | 20 |
Asia
Closed: 1
How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Majority | Yes |
Not a plurality | No |
Plurality | No |
# Forecasters: 189
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.287993 | slobodan |
2 | -0.972678 | WangShuo |
3 | -0.855420 | geoseattleite |
4 | -0.708725 | Van der MEI |
5 | -0.541507 | KateWestmoreland |
6 | -0.519885 | A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams |
7 | -0.500404 | lsgold7 |
8 | -0.493038 | TVANKSTA |
9 | -0.479074 | xieweisen |
10 | -0.460404 | dr.cankraut |
11 | -0.460065 | Shahram33 |
12 | -0.365233 | teresalam |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.287993 | slobodan |
2 | -0.288985 | Jean-Pierre |
3 | -0.264130 | cdob63 |
4 | -0.257545 | 000 |
5 | -0.257445 | ravel |
6 | -0.232613 | patrickmeehan5 |
7 | -0.220289 | Spandrelbarca |
8 | -0.209220 | malcmur |
9 | -0.199880 | mparrault |
10 | -0.193285 | boz |
11 | -0.145470 | sh517 |
12 | -0.070631 | kormac |
Open: 3
Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 65 |
ravel | Yes | 71 |
malcmur | Yes | 80 |
kormac | Yes | 80 |
boz | Yes | 85 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 89 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 90 |
mparrault | Yes | 95 |
cdob63 | Yes | 99 |
sh517 | Yes | 100 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 87 | 87 |
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 5 |
ravel | Yes | 9 |
cdob63 | Yes | 9 |
malcmur | Yes | 10 |
kormac | Yes | 10 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 15 |
mparrault | Yes | 18 |
boz | Yes | 19 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 22 |
sh517 | Yes | 55 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 25 | 25 |
Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
sh517 | Grace Poe | 0 |
slobodan | Grace Poe | 0 |
cdob63 | Grace Poe | 2 |
malcmur | Grace Poe | 20 |
boz | Grace Poe | 22 |
mparrault | Grace Poe | 25 |
Jean-Pierre | Grace Poe | 30 |
ravel | Grace Poe | 33 |
Spandrelbarca | Grace Poe | 35 |
kormac | Grace Poe | 40 |
patrickmeehan5 | Grace Poe | 49 |
slobodan | Jejomar Binay | 11 |
Jean-Pierre | Jejomar Binay | 30 |
kormac | Jejomar Binay | 30 |
ravel | Jejomar Binay | 34 |
Spandrelbarca | Jejomar Binay | 35 |
boz | Jejomar Binay | 37 |
mparrault | Jejomar Binay | 39 |
patrickmeehan5 | Jejomar Binay | 51 |
malcmur | Jejomar Binay | 60 |
cdob63 | Jejomar Binay | 65 |
sh517 | Jejomar Binay | 100 |
sh517 | Mar Roxas | 0 |
malcmur | Mar Roxas | 0 |
slobodan | Mar Roxas | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Mar Roxas | 0 |
ravel | Mar Roxas | 2 |
Spandrelbarca | Mar Roxas | 5 |
mparrault | Mar Roxas | 7 |
cdob63 | Mar Roxas | 8 |
Jean-Pierre | Mar Roxas | 10 |
boz | Mar Roxas | 13 |
kormac | Mar Roxas | 20 |
sh517 | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
malcmur | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
slobodan | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
kormac | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
cdob63 | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 |
mparrault | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 1 |
boz | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 2 |
ravel | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 2 |
sh517 | None of the above | 0 |
malcmur | None of the above | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | None of the above | 0 |
slobodan | None of the above | 0 |
kormac | None of the above | 0 |
ravel | None of the above | 0 |
cdob63 | None of the above | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | None of the above | 0 |
mparrault | None of the above | 1 |
boz | None of the above | 2 |
Spandrelbarca | None of the above | 5 |
sh517 | Rodrigo Duterte | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Rodrigo Duterte | 0 |
kormac | Rodrigo Duterte | 10 |
malcmur | Rodrigo Duterte | 20 |
Spandrelbarca | Rodrigo Duterte | 20 |
boz | Rodrigo Duterte | 24 |
cdob63 | Rodrigo Duterte | 25 |
mparrault | Rodrigo Duterte | 27 |
ravel | Rodrigo Duterte | 29 |
Jean-Pierre | Rodrigo Duterte | 30 |
slobodan | Rodrigo Duterte | 89 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Grace Poe | 23 | 22 |
Jejomar Binay | 45 | 42 |
Mar Roxas | 6 | 6 |
Miriam Defensor-Santiago | 0 | 0 |
None of the above | 1 | 1 |
Rodrigo Duterte | 25 | 29 |
Capital controls
Closed: 10
Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 55
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.760930 | mc77 |
2 | -0.735999 | brazilianwitchcraft |
3 | -0.680486 | Peter Katzenfisch |
4 | -0.621344 | fchoe |
5 | -0.612430 | Jamison |
6 | -0.512430 | pb41 |
7 | -0.475930 | Falconer |
8 | -0.471430 | afoyfs |
9 | -0.442875 | banda311 |
10 | -0.420097 | Mikatec |
11 | -0.403430 | Khalid |
12 | -0.402097 | bconlee |
Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 175
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.284685 | Peter Katzenfisch |
2 | -0.281174 | tumbleweed |
3 | -0.278442 | Rebel ran riot |
4 | -0.274153 | 974david |
5 | -0.259251 | gust |
6 | -0.249651 | Anneinak |
7 | -0.244319 | Agent0090 |
8 | -0.241672 | clinton |
9 | -0.240093 | darius.hinton |
10 | -0.237868 | donmars |
11 | -0.232025 | Randy |
12 | -0.222495 | dada |
Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 94
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.272006 | Paul Theron |
2 | -0.261711 | jeremylichtman |
3 | -0.257041 | Dwight Smith |
4 | -0.255736 | PinyonCyn |
5 | -0.255723 | llanchav |
6 | -0.255463 | 000 |
7 | -0.253607 | Asteras |
8 | -0.251375 | brazilianwitchcraft |
9 | -0.249679 | Falconer |
10 | -0.249569 | BlockHead |
11 | -0.249350 | Manfred |
12 | -0.247481 | slobodan |
Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 202
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.217195 | Reynard |
2 | -0.210510 | PinyonCyn |
3 | -0.210313 | Falconer |
4 | -0.208338 | bmiller |
5 | -0.203094 | 000 |
6 | -0.197395 | Darren |
7 | -0.195541 | Oracle |
8 | -0.192805 | rjuarbe |
9 | -0.192805 | llanchav |
10 | -0.192805 | bill l |
11 | -0.192421 | Dwight Smith |
12 | -0.189526 | BlockHead |
Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 579
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.455791 | eightball |
2 | -0.452291 | Bob Woods |
3 | -0.450841 | briannbarbour |
4 | -0.450595 | Chiyouen |
5 | -0.445891 | harshabn |
6 | -0.445891 | hn7815 |
7 | -0.445597 | patrickmeehan5 |
8 | -0.443119 | nc.ch |
9 | -0.443119 | Picasso1387 |
10 | -0.438247 | Falconer |
11 | -0.431191 | Ron |
12 | -0.431191 | dyco |
Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 112
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.421854 | GP Jim |
2 | -0.416593 | Rebel ran riot |
3 | -0.411894 | lookitsKB |
4 | -0.406159 | donmars |
5 | -0.402262 | gearhart5k |
6 | -0.400807 | iajski |
7 | -0.397209 | Doina |
8 | -0.396262 | ambidextrous |
9 | -0.382315 | jnord |
10 | -0.377525 | davecrosby |
11 | -0.377525 | thalt123 |
12 | -0.377525 | Garyland |
Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 127
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.528685 | Manfred |
2 | -0.519695 | PetaBajt |
3 | -0.500274 | drbooze |
4 | -0.497586 | dada |
5 | -0.495485 | LisinHvost |
6 | -0.495485 | CRaazi |
7 | -0.470906 | Rote |
8 | -0.465380 | Somchai A |
9 | -0.454093 | MarkBadger |
10 | -0.438531 | GeneH |
11 | -0.429853 | fightin bronco |
12 | -0.423695 | Minnesota71 |
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 101
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.082346 | Anneinak |
2 | -0.082346 | DariusX |
3 | -0.082346 | Raisinville |
4 | -0.082346 | Spandrelbarca |
5 | -0.082346 | ckruger |
6 | -0.082346 | redacted |
7 | -0.082346 | Gleb_Kabanov |
8 | -0.082346 | luzkannon |
9 | -0.082346 | rockytop00 |
10 | -0.082346 | kormac |
11 | -0.082346 | CalMotoMal |
12 | -0.082346 | Free-thinker |
Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term | Yes |
Someone else from Europe | No |
Someone from outside Europe | No |
# Forecasters: 277
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.678659 | k13rkeg44rd |
2 | -0.678659 | RedHarris |
3 | -0.670050 | einsteinjs |
4 | -0.668659 | Travist |
5 | -0.660536 | kormac |
6 | -0.651727 | AjzakN |
7 | -0.649459 | PaulLynch |
8 | -0.648659 | 15 |
9 | -0.643423 | alistaircookie |
10 | -0.642159 | malcmur |
11 | -0.641236 | dkc |
12 | -0.631955 | Srzaua |
How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Four | No |
None | No |
One | No |
Three | No |
Two | Yes |
# Forecasters: 202
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.988249 | einsteinjs |
2 | -0.984349 | z0k |
3 | -0.984182 | gkamstra |
4 | -0.982182 | Sjens |
5 | -0.981382 | alistaircookie |
6 | -0.980449 | sonac36 |
7 | -0.978982 | Khalid |
8 | -0.978982 | fifty-sixty |
9 | -0.978982 | Overtheriver |
10 | -0.978982 | searchlight |
11 | -0.978982 | Persistanceofmemory |
12 | -0.974049 | DariusX |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -2.458420 | 000 |
2 | -2.282963 | cdob63 |
3 | -1.825863 | ravel |
4 | -1.684331 | patrickmeehan5 |
5 | -1.414834 | kormac |
6 | -1.342902 | mparrault |
Open: 7
Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
kormac | Yes | 10 |
cdob63 | Yes | 15 |
ravel | Yes | 17 |
mparrault | Yes | 20 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 99 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 32 | 32 |
Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Yes | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 0 |
mparrault | Yes | 4 |
kormac | Yes | 5 |
ravel | Yes | 7 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3 | 4 |
Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
kormac | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 2 |
ravel | Yes | 4 |
mparrault | Yes | 5 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 60 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 14 | 15 |
Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | Yes | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 10 |
cdob63 | Yes | 19 |
mparrault | Yes | 25 |
kormac | Yes | 30 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 17 | 19 |
How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Above 75 | 0 |
ravel | Above 75 | 2 |
mparrault | Above 75 | 11 |
kormac | Above 75 | 25 |
patrickmeehan5 | Above 75 | 69 |
kormac | Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 3 |
patrickmeehan5 | Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 10 |
mparrault | Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 21 |
ravel | Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 25 |
cdob63 | Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 26 |
patrickmeehan5 | Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 20 |
mparrault | Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 60 |
ravel | Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 68 |
kormac | Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 70 |
cdob63 | Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 74 |
cdob63 | In the top 50 | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | In the top 50 | 1 |
kormac | In the top 50 | 2 |
ravel | In the top 50 | 5 |
mparrault | In the top 50 | 8 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Above 75 | 21 | 23 |
Between 51 and 60, inclusive | 17 | 13 |
Between 61 and 75, inclusive | 58 | 62 |
In the top 50 | 3 | 2 |
Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
mparrault | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
ravel | Yes | 2 |
kormac | Yes | 5 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 10 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 4 | 4 |
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
mparrault | Yes | 65 |
cdob63 | Yes | 71 |
ravel | Yes | 77 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 80 |
kormac | Yes | 85 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 76 | 75 |
China
Closed: 2
Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 148
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.183613 | Easy Miles |
2 | -0.182941 | Paul Theron |
3 | -0.179515 | Spandrelbarca |
4 | -0.170171 | PinyonCyn |
5 | -0.166687 | 000 |
6 | -0.166441 | Matt |
7 | -0.163613 | Darren |
8 | -0.160171 | Xu |
9 | -0.158833 | dylanjones |
10 | -0.150826 | Roosevelt |
11 | -0.146728 | slobodan |
12 | -0.145987 | hyperionok |
Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 182
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.340406 | k13rkeg44rd |
2 | -0.335406 | Lucky |
3 | -0.334716 | redacted |
4 | -0.332039 | madre |
5 | -0.330305 | ckruger |
6 | -0.323263 | dkc |
7 | -0.319087 | DMOzone |
8 | -0.313338 | Jean-Pierre |
9 | -0.312933 | slobodan |
10 | -0.294619 | jkbick |
11 | -0.294059 | sh517 |
12 | -0.293331 | 000 |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.470521 | madre |
2 | -0.460018 | 000 |
3 | -0.459661 | slobodan |
4 | -0.426133 | Jean-Pierre |
5 | -0.415508 | alistaircookie |
6 | -0.412462 | Lucky |
7 | -0.410775 | ckruger |
8 | -0.402072 | klin |
9 | -0.389949 | cmeinel |
10 | -0.362608 | cdob63 |
11 | -0.354234 | Buck Clemons |
12 | -0.339882 | mparrault |
Open: 3
Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cmeinel | Yes | 1 |
ckruger | Yes | 5 |
Buck Clemons | Yes | 10 |
klin | Yes | 12 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 21 |
alistaircookie | Yes | 33 |
mparrault | Yes | 35 |
cdob63 | Yes | 55 |
madre | Yes | 68 |
Lucky | Yes | 75 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 38 | 39 |
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Lucky | Yes | 1 |
ckruger | Yes | 3 |
alistaircookie | Yes | 3 |
klin | Yes | 5 |
cmeinel | Yes | 6 |
mparrault | Yes | 7 |
Buck Clemons | Yes | 10 |
cdob63 | Yes | 10 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 14 |
madre | Yes | 28 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 17 | 17 |
Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cmeinel | No | 47 |
klin | No | 60 |
Jean-Pierre | No | 60 |
Lucky | No | 70 |
Buck Clemons | No | 85 |
mparrault | No | 85 |
cdob63 | No | 97 |
madre | No | 98 |
alistaircookie | No | 98 |
ckruger | No | 99 |
slobodan | No | 100 |
Buck Clemons | Yes, with both | 0 |
ckruger | Yes, with both | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, with both | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, with both | 0 |
madre | Yes, with both | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes, with both | 0 |
Lucky | Yes, with both | 0 |
alistaircookie | Yes, with both | 2 |
mparrault | Yes, with both | 2 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, with both | 3 |
klin | Yes, with both | 25 |
slobodan | Yes, with only Iran | 0 |
alistaircookie | Yes, with only Iran | 0 |
ckruger | Yes, with only Iran | 1 |
madre | Yes, with only Iran | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes, with only Iran | 3 |
Buck Clemons | Yes, with only Iran | 10 |
mparrault | Yes, with only Iran | 10 |
klin | Yes, with only Iran | 15 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, with only Iran | 23 |
Lucky | Yes, with only Iran | 30 |
cmeinel | Yes, with only Iran | 53 |
klin | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
ckruger | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
Lucky | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
alistaircookie | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 0 |
madre | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 1 |
mparrault | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 3 |
Buck Clemons | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 5 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 14 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
No | 82 | 82 |
Yes, with both | 3 | 3 |
Yes, with only Iran | 13 | 13 |
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia | 2 | 2 |
EU
Closed: 2
Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 89
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.157904 | Falconer |
2 | -0.151375 | cdob63 |
3 | -0.151312 | clinton |
4 | -0.148035 | mike97mike |
5 | -0.145732 | malcmur |
6 | -0.145535 | scholarandcat |
7 | -0.145353 | 000 |
8 | -0.144310 | patrickmeehan5 |
9 | -0.139261 | dada |
10 | -0.139216 | Lux |
11 | -0.139016 | Hammer Time |
12 | -0.137692 | mparrault |
Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 429
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.580726 | slobodan |
2 | -0.575320 | drouq_ |
3 | -0.547018 | duth_forever |
4 | -0.545726 | patrickmeehan5 |
5 | -0.535726 | marcbgoldberg |
6 | -0.530987 | mayflower |
7 | -0.514668 | searchlight |
8 | -0.511393 | monique |
9 | -0.500726 | CedricJ |
10 | -0.497226 | Augustinas |
11 | -0.496351 | scurcuru |
12 | -0.492341 | jfm293c |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.690036 | patrickmeehan5 |
2 | -0.530723 | Delorean |
3 | -0.487162 | cdob63 |
4 | -0.298233 | Jean-Pierre |
5 | -0.295004 | Rene |
6 | -0.285294 | 000 |
7 | -0.262162 | RCScheffers |
8 | -0.225466 | JuliusKo |
9 | -0.195666 | Anneinak |
10 | -0.189826 | paul_the_octopus |
11 | -0.098943 | Sneaky_Pete531 |
12 | -0.067104 | dominich |
Open: 3
Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
RCScheffers | Both | 0 |
paul_the_octopus | Both | 0 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Both | 0 |
JuliusKo | Both | 0 |
dominich | Both | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Both | 0 |
Delorean | Both | 0 |
Anneinak | Both | 0 |
Rene | Both | 0 |
cdob63 | Both | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Both | 80 |
Delorean | Ciudadanos | 0 |
Anneinak | Ciudadanos | 0 |
cdob63 | Ciudadanos | 1 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Ciudadanos | 3 |
paul_the_octopus | Ciudadanos | 4 |
Jean-Pierre | Ciudadanos | 4 |
RCScheffers | Ciudadanos | 5 |
Rene | Ciudadanos | 5 |
patrickmeehan5 | Ciudadanos | 5 |
JuliusKo | Ciudadanos | 6 |
dominich | Ciudadanos | 15 |
patrickmeehan5 | Neither | 5 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Neither | 84 |
dominich | Neither | 85 |
JuliusKo | Neither | 90 |
Jean-Pierre | Neither | 94 |
RCScheffers | Neither | 95 |
paul_the_octopus | Neither | 95 |
Rene | Neither | 95 |
cdob63 | Neither | 99 |
Delorean | Neither | 100 |
Anneinak | Neither | 100 |
RCScheffers | Podemos | 0 |
dominich | Podemos | 0 |
Delorean | Podemos | 0 |
Anneinak | Podemos | 0 |
Rene | Podemos | 0 |
cdob63 | Podemos | 0 |
paul_the_octopus | Podemos | 1 |
Jean-Pierre | Podemos | 2 |
JuliusKo | Podemos | 4 |
patrickmeehan5 | Podemos | 10 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Podemos | 13 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Both | 7 | 10 |
Ciudadanos | 4 | 3 |
Neither | 86 | 84 |
Podemos | 3 | 3 |
Who will be the next mayor of London?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
RCScheffers | None of the above | 0 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | None of the above | 0 |
dominich | None of the above | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | None of the above | 0 |
Delorean | None of the above | 0 |
Anneinak | None of the above | 0 |
Rene | None of the above | 0 |
cdob63 | None of the above | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | None of the above | 0 |
paul_the_octopus | None of the above | 1 |
JuliusKo | None of the above | 1 |
JuliusKo | Sadiq Khan | 74 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Sadiq Khan | 75 |
Jean-Pierre | Sadiq Khan | 75 |
Anneinak | Sadiq Khan | 75 |
RCScheffers | Sadiq Khan | 78 |
Rene | Sadiq Khan | 78 |
dominich | Sadiq Khan | 80 |
paul_the_octopus | Sadiq Khan | 86 |
Delorean | Sadiq Khan | 91 |
cdob63 | Sadiq Khan | 94 |
patrickmeehan5 | Sadiq Khan | 99 |
patrickmeehan5 | Zac Goldsmith | 1 |
cdob63 | Zac Goldsmith | 6 |
Delorean | Zac Goldsmith | 9 |
paul_the_octopus | Zac Goldsmith | 13 |
dominich | Zac Goldsmith | 20 |
RCScheffers | Zac Goldsmith | 22 |
Rene | Zac Goldsmith | 22 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Zac Goldsmith | 25 |
JuliusKo | Zac Goldsmith | 25 |
Jean-Pierre | Zac Goldsmith | 25 |
Anneinak | Zac Goldsmith | 25 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
None of the above | 0 | 0 |
Sadiq Khan | 82 | 83 |
Zac Goldsmith | 18 | 17 |
Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 55 |
RCScheffers | Yes | 58 |
Rene | Yes | 58 |
Anneinak | Yes | 66 |
Sneaky_Pete531 | Yes | 75 |
JuliusKo | Yes | 80 |
dominich | Yes | 80 |
cdob63 | Yes | 80 |
paul_the_octopus | Yes | 83 |
Delorean | Yes | 95 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 95 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 75 | 72 |
Entertainment
Closed: 4
Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 145
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.623068 | RichStenberg |
2 | -0.587479 | ben |
3 | -0.583794 | jeremylichtman |
4 | -0.534189 | Khalid |
5 | -0.517468 | yankeeracer |
6 | -0.504694 | Socrates |
7 | -0.498268 | SmallTown Gal |
8 | -0.482305 | ESR |
9 | -0.478389 | patrickmeehan5 |
10 | -0.470505 | KokaV992 |
11 | -0.468663 | Slackline |
12 | -0.468663 | matadams4u |
Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 238
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.215373 | piodzie |
2 | -0.215373 | BestGuess |
3 | -0.215052 | heinlager |
4 | -0.210786 | Rebel ran riot |
5 | -0.210590 | hyperionok |
6 | -0.210590 | List9845 |
7 | -0.210419 | XanX |
8 | -0.210419 | selkhet7 |
9 | -0.210419 | raullegaz |
10 | -0.210419 | Predrag |
11 | -0.205878 | Themistokles |
12 | -0.205878 | JH_Bernard |
Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser | No |
Laser Maze Jr. | No |
Makey Makey Classic | No |
Meccanoid G15 | Yes |
MiPosaur | No |
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator | No |
i-loom | No |
# Forecasters: 160
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.460378 | vkent |
2 | -1.359424 | renatomt |
3 | -1.242494 | albender |
4 | -1.153113 | Graham88 |
5 | -0.971340 | janeanne |
6 | -0.961103 | fifty-sixty |
7 | -0.886779 | calebw |
8 | -0.873897 | Magloghan |
9 | -0.870655 | praedico |
10 | -0.870378 | Minsky |
11 | -0.862222 | Dima K |
12 | -0.846671 | Dilamarter |
Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Bridge of Spies | No |
Brooklyn | No |
Mad Max: Fury Road | No |
Room | No |
Spotlight | Yes |
The Big Short | No |
The Martian | No |
The Revenant | No |
# Forecasters: 402
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -2.032620 | slobodan |
2 | -1.634741 | Mr.Macbeth |
3 | -1.507166 | Potter |
4 | -1.496863 | pablogabriels |
5 | -1.488378 | acerock6 |
6 | -1.444981 | craigellan |
7 | -1.416951 | Dima K |
8 | -1.399396 | Costusinsights |
9 | -1.218123 | dylbyl25 |
10 | -1.157466 | Scabe |
11 | -1.124422 | Claudio |
12 | -1.109287 | kbaker |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -2.209046 | GJDrew |
2 | -1.595470 | mparrault |
3 | -1.541718 | patrickmeehan5 |
4 | -1.505138 | 000 |
5 | -1.391106 | yaifuz26 |
6 | -1.375077 | cdob63 |
7 | -1.023185 | ravel |
8 | -0.244440 | petth |
Open: 6
Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
mparrault | Yes | 4 |
ravel | Yes | 5 |
GJDrew | Yes | 11 |
petth | Yes | 25 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 55 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 99 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 29 | 29 |
Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
petth | All of the above will survive season 6 | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | All of the above will survive season 6 | 0 |
yaifuz26 | All of the above will survive season 6 | 25 |
GJDrew | All of the above will survive season 6 | 25 |
cdob63 | All of the above will survive season 6 | 42 |
ravel | All of the above will survive season 6 | 52 |
mparrault | All of the above will survive season 6 | 54 |
ravel | Carl | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Carl | 0 |
mparrault | Carl | 3 |
GJDrew | Carl | 5 |
cdob63 | Carl | 14 |
yaifuz26 | Carl | 25 |
petth | Carl | 50 |
patrickmeehan5 | Carol | 0 |
yaifuz26 | Carol | 15 |
mparrault | Carol | 15 |
GJDrew | Carol | 18 |
ravel | Carol | 22 |
cdob63 | Carol | 34 |
petth | Carol | 50 |
petth | Daryl | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Daryl | 0 |
cdob63 | Daryl | 6 |
mparrault | Daryl | 7 |
yaifuz26 | Daryl | 20 |
ravel | Daryl | 22 |
GJDrew | Daryl | 26 |
yaifuz26 | Glenn | 0 |
petth | Glenn | 0 |
cdob63 | Glenn | 3 |
ravel | Glenn | 4 |
mparrault | Glenn | 20 |
GJDrew | Glenn | 26 |
patrickmeehan5 | Glenn | 99 |
petth | Rick | 0 |
GJDrew | Rick | 0 |
ravel | Rick | 0 |
cdob63 | Rick | 1 |
patrickmeehan5 | Rick | 1 |
mparrault | Rick | 1 |
yaifuz26 | Rick | 15 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
All of the above will survive season 6 | 28 | 28 |
Carl | 14 | 14 |
Carol | 22 | 22 |
Daryl | 12 | 12 |
Glenn | 22 | 22 |
Rick | 3 | 2 |
Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | Yes | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes | 2 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 5 |
mparrault | Yes | 5 |
GJDrew | Yes | 35 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 45 |
petth | Yes | 50 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 20 | 21 |
Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
GJDrew | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 0 |
mparrault | Yes | 0 |
petth | Yes | 1 |
ravel | Yes | 1 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 65 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 24 | 24 |
Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | Yes | 7 |
mparrault | Yes | 10 |
cdob63 | Yes | 11 |
GJDrew | Yes | 13 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 15 |
petth | Yes | 60 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 65 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 26 | 27 |
Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
GJDrew | Yes | 25 |
mparrault | Yes | 35 |
ravel | Yes | 45 |
cdob63 | Yes | 68 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 85 |
petth | Yes | 100 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 65 | 66 |
Environment
Closed: 1
Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 185
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.117004 | DariusX |
2 | -0.117004 | 000 |
3 | -0.117004 | Delorean |
4 | -0.117004 | Clairvoyance |
5 | -0.117004 | alistaircookie |
6 | -0.117004 | tom.prigg |
7 | -0.117004 | AlexisTocqueville |
8 | -0.116904 | Gfrizzi |
9 | -0.116822 | dkc |
10 | -0.116804 | clinton |
11 | -0.116804 | ravel |
12 | -0.116804 | guesser |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.117004 | 000 |
2 | -0.117004 | Delorean |
3 | -0.117004 | alistaircookie |
4 | -0.116904 | Gfrizzi |
5 | -0.116804 | clinton |
6 | -0.116804 | ravel |
7 | -0.115413 | Khalid |
8 | -0.115413 | REGallahue |
9 | -0.115413 | argon1 |
10 | -0.115076 | morrell |
11 | -0.114458 | cdob63 |
12 | -0.106795 | Amir |
Open: 2
Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | Yes | 65 |
Amir | Yes | 65 |
alistaircookie | Yes | 66 |
REGallahue | Yes | 72 |
Khalid | Yes | 75 |
morrell | Yes | 80 |
cdob63 | Yes | 84 |
Gfrizzi | Yes | 85 |
Delorean | Yes | 85 |
clinton | Yes | 89 |
argon1 | Yes | 90 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 78 | 74 |
Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
argon1 | Yes | 0 |
clinton | Yes | 0 |
alistaircookie | Yes | 0 |
Gfrizzi | Yes | 2 |
REGallahue | Yes | 3 |
Delorean | Yes | 4 |
cdob63 | Yes | 4 |
morrell | Yes | 5 |
Amir | Yes | 5 |
ravel | Yes | 9 |
Khalid | Yes | 10 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 4 | 4 |
Iran
Closed: 9
Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 201
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.448675 | Bill |
2 | -0.427661 | alterego |
3 | -0.427661 | Socrates |
4 | -0.427661 | Gregory |
5 | -0.423900 | gust |
6 | -0.416900 | Ron |
7 | -0.414039 | thomas.r |
8 | -0.410052 | brazilianwitchcraft |
9 | -0.408277 | Delorean |
10 | -0.396248 | Jay R |
11 | -0.389146 | jatreit |
12 | -0.388274 | Poorforecaster |
Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
No | Yes |
Yes, and the resolution will become law | No |
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand | No |
# Forecasters: 86
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.814923 | Falconer |
2 | -0.814547 | GeneH |
3 | -0.804947 | Wagle |
4 | -0.785418 | johneyhb |
5 | -0.726712 | einsteinjs |
6 | -0.726523 | dms |
7 | -0.684241 | Manfred |
8 | -0.663959 | wlmsears |
9 | -0.651253 | Raisinville |
10 | -0.642006 | Dwight Smith |
11 | -0.574429 | ESR |
12 | -0.559912 | GJDrew |
Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 69
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.125324 | 000 |
2 | -0.125324 | ravel |
3 | -0.125006 | cdob63 |
4 | -0.120986 | donmars |
5 | -0.120324 | jnord |
6 | -0.119806 | UnderwaterPutin |
7 | -0.119806 | Khalid |
8 | -0.117048 | jatreit |
9 | -0.115524 | gust |
10 | -0.111875 | Anneinak |
11 | -0.108772 | malcmur |
12 | -0.107889 | GP Jim |
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 37
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.566842 | Jean-Pierre |
2 | -0.528271 | Manfred |
3 | -0.521585 | ESR |
4 | -0.488671 | usajvbueno |
5 | -0.478985 | donmars |
6 | -0.478985 | jnord |
7 | -0.456957 | Mroochyslav |
8 | -0.434699 | clinton |
9 | -0.428985 | Shahar |
10 | -0.428985 | ZEUS |
11 | -0.420642 | madre |
12 | -0.410414 | Khalid |
Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 122
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.188506 | Agent0090 |
2 | -0.188201 | 000 |
3 | -0.185291 | TVANKSTA |
4 | -0.185191 | Khalid |
5 | -0.184458 | jnord |
6 | -0.182363 | cdob63 |
7 | -0.180791 | cmeinel |
8 | -0.180529 | usajvbueno |
9 | -0.180529 | GP Jim |
10 | -0.177358 | sluggoman |
11 | -0.177358 | JP |
12 | -0.176658 | alistaircookie |
Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 294
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.276187 | slobodan |
2 | -0.275987 | Asia |
3 | -0.275387 | twodox |
4 | -0.267238 | clinton |
5 | -0.266561 | Rosario |
6 | -0.266057 | mayflower |
7 | -0.264098 | madre |
8 | -0.262787 | ckruger |
9 | -0.262169 | GoodieGoodie |
10 | -0.261974 | JHooson |
11 | -0.261935 | Manfred |
12 | -0.260767 | cdob63 |
When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Before 1 March 2016 | Yes |
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive | No |
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive | No |
Not before 1 July 2016 | No |
# Forecasters: 146
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.958118 | fifty-sixty |
2 | -1.925718 | azharala |
3 | -1.851830 | Wagle |
4 | -1.780945 | Travist |
5 | -1.737334 | Cansee |
6 | -1.645718 | Shashank |
7 | -1.527385 | Pachi |
8 | -1.474052 | jsheth |
9 | -1.411223 | john27 |
10 | -1.395718 | travelershope |
11 | -1.357334 | jordanstone01 |
12 | -1.339800 | fatalis |
Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 121
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.484838 | slobodan |
2 | -0.484638 | Kumar_Shah |
3 | -0.479838 | Angturil |
4 | -0.479838 | Ellieb |
5 | -0.475771 | kormac |
6 | -0.473238 | fron24 |
7 | -0.464838 | dcrosby51 |
8 | -0.439838 | Hadrain |
9 | -0.439838 | rpirzada |
10 | -0.439838 | Peyman2030 |
11 | -0.439838 | Mehrdad |
12 | -0.427704 | arash |
Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 200
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.193305 | Falconer |
2 | -0.193064 | Spandrelbarca |
3 | -0.191790 | redacted |
4 | -0.189949 | KSpain |
5 | -0.189321 | cdob63 |
6 | -0.188305 | Travist |
7 | -0.188305 | fron24 |
8 | -0.188305 | JohnH |
9 | -0.188305 | theprof |
10 | -0.186455 | phdork |
11 | -0.186258 | Vicrums |
12 | -0.183146 | Liam |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.776117 | mparrault |
2 | -1.654682 | Khalid |
3 | -1.526950 | cdob63 |
4 | -1.473965 | Jean-Pierre |
5 | -1.439449 | slobodan |
6 | -1.391127 | 000 |
7 | -1.158899 | Spandrelbarca |
8 | -0.977923 | petth |
9 | -0.864946 | malcmur |
10 | -0.750579 | ravel |
Open: 6
Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
petth | Yes | 0 |
malcmur | Yes | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
Khalid | Yes | 0 |
ravel | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
mparrault | Yes | 1 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 11 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1 | 1 |
Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
petth | Yes | 50 |
ravel | Yes | 67 |
mparrault | Yes | 75 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 85 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 99 |
cdob63 | Yes | 99 |
malcmur | Yes | 100 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Khalid | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 86 | 81 |
Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 2 |
malcmur | Yes | 3 |
mparrault | Yes | 4 |
Khalid | Yes | 5 |
ravel | Yes | 11 |
petth | Yes | 35 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 7 | 7 |
Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Khalid | No | 10 |
petth | No | 45 |
Spandrelbarca | No | 50 |
cdob63 | No | 67 |
Jean-Pierre | No | 80 |
mparrault | No | 80 |
malcmur | No | 90 |
slobodan | No | 95 |
ravel | No | 98 |
slobodan | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 0 |
ravel | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 1 |
malcmur | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 10 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 10 |
mparrault | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 10 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 25 |
cdob63 | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 30 |
Khalid | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 35 |
petth | Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 50 |
malcmur | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 0 |
ravel | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 3 |
petth | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 5 |
slobodan | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 5 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 10 |
mparrault | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 10 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 25 |
Khalid | Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 55 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
No | 68 | 68 |
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 19 | 19 |
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran | 13 | 13 |
Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Yes | 4 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 15 |
petth | Yes | 25 |
malcmur | Yes | 30 |
ravel | Yes | 31 |
mparrault | Yes | 36 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 55 |
Khalid | Yes | 55 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 39 | 40 |
Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
Khalid | Yes | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 0 |
mparrault | Yes | 1 |
malcmur | Yes | 5 |
ravel | Yes | 5 |
cdob63 | Yes | 9 |
petth | Yes | 55 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 8 | 8 |
Latin America
Closed: 2
Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Daniel Scioli | No |
Mauricio Macri | Yes |
Sergio Massa | No |
Someone else | No |
# Forecasters: 189
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.667392 | slobodan |
2 | -1.130566 | Markmsl |
3 | -1.016340 | achatkin |
4 | -1.012129 | ogross |
5 | -0.916866 | fleppy |
6 | -0.802839 | mybaby4929 |
7 | -0.802524 | DSchultz |
8 | -0.775564 | Dido |
9 | -0.745997 | lindsey |
10 | -0.733760 | Julius |
11 | -0.727012 | danbazurto |
12 | -0.716208 | 974david |
Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 138
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.604602 | Chrisdo |
2 | -0.592102 | DavidHume1776 |
3 | -0.587352 | Alex11 |
4 | -0.579602 | Mdmalseed |
5 | -0.576852 | jkbick |
6 | -0.572102 | starbright |
7 | -0.567102 | geoseattleite |
8 | -0.554602 | saesousa |
9 | -0.550227 | drofter |
10 | -0.537102 | malaquias |
11 | -0.529602 | k13rkeg44rd |
12 | -0.525602 | Jean-Pierre |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.667392 | slobodan |
2 | -1.470481 | ogross |
3 | -1.254296 | jkbick |
4 | -1.132342 | Dima K |
5 | -0.972452 | patrickmeehan5 |
6 | -0.925410 | Davidoff400 |
7 | -0.869938 | boz |
8 | -0.816969 | Jean-Pierre |
9 | -0.748679 | dada |
10 | -0.746782 | PianoPicasso |
11 | -0.716270 | yaifuz26 |
12 | -0.704757 | christianmaas |
Open: 2
Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
christianmaas | Yes | 1 |
dada | Yes | 1 |
Dima K | Yes | 1 |
PianoPicasso | Yes | 4 |
boz | Yes | 6 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 15 |
jkbick | Yes | 20 |
ogross | Yes | 30 |
Davidoff400 | Yes | 35 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 97 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 18 | 17 |
Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
dada | Yes | 1 |
slobodan | Yes | 1 |
Davidoff400 | Yes | 5 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 5 |
ogross | Yes | 20 |
Dima K | Yes | 20 |
boz | Yes | 42 |
PianoPicasso | Yes | 45 |
jkbick | Yes | 50 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 55 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 65 |
christianmaas | Yes | 74 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 32 | 32 |
Markets
Closed: 4
What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
6.40 or more | Yes |
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive | No |
Less than 6.30 | No |
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 | No |
# Forecasters: 340
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.238701 | Rebel ran riot |
2 | -1.213703 | patrickmeehan5 |
3 | -1.063215 | brightling |
4 | -1.009150 | Bill |
5 | -0.995167 | Investmentitos |
6 | -0.931671 | Darren |
7 | -0.921602 | tfolkes |
8 | -0.893866 | Doina |
9 | -0.873036 | Mroochyslav |
10 | -0.818662 | JJMLP |
11 | -0.810939 | dkandersen |
12 | -0.810939 | petergreen |
What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive | Yes |
Less than $34.00 per barrel | No |
More than $40.00 per barrel | No |
# Forecasters: 636
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.000374 | hoopengarners |
2 | -0.991402 | kdcnett |
3 | -0.987197 | schliemann |
4 | -0.958145 | achatkin |
5 | -0.928879 | lookitsKB |
6 | -0.892711 | Diplo |
7 | -0.880094 | Jamison |
8 | -0.879814 | Araasatrian |
9 | -0.869518 | domesticenginerd |
10 | -0.852150 | JHooson |
11 | -0.843645 | Jfoster |
12 | -0.834487 | laz |
Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Adam Bain | No |
Anthony Noto | No |
Jack Dorsey | Yes |
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year | No |
Someone else | No |
# Forecasters: 83
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.086151 | Raisinville |
2 | -0.828338 | clinton |
3 | -0.768231 | malcmur |
4 | -0.754898 | wlmsears |
5 | -0.597665 | GJDrew |
6 | -0.589038 | 000 |
7 | -0.543565 | jumblies |
8 | -0.504658 | KristiG |
9 | -0.503861 | slobodan |
10 | -0.501565 | Ziggysak |
11 | -0.492231 | PlanetPanic |
12 | -0.474798 | cdob63 |
Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 325
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.739582 | Crown |
2 | -0.719789 | asolismon |
3 | -0.711524 | Rettic, MBA |
4 | -0.706855 | Kevin “Rusty” Peters. |
5 | -0.694582 | bet10 |
6 | -0.662792 | Kyle_protho |
7 | -0.661111 | Liza |
8 | -0.645409 | mstlau |
9 | -0.637144 | Mdmalseed |
10 | -0.637144 | misti.graziani@gmail.com |
11 | -0.633218 | Hector N |
12 | -0.633218 | bodipb |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Markets
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.712499 | patrickmeehan5 |
2 | -1.444045 | malcmur |
3 | -1.366373 | slobodan |
4 | -1.216705 | 000 |
5 | -1.178497 | clinton |
6 | -1.029009 | mparrault |
7 | -0.875545 | dada |
8 | -0.875090 | ravel |
9 | -0.765186 | cdob63 |
10 | -0.589390 | jeremylichtman |
11 | -0.510196 | praedico |
Open: 4
What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 0 |
cdob63 | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 32 |
malcmur | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 35 |
mparrault | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 38 |
praedico | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 40 |
clinton | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 42 |
dada | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 65 |
ravel | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 72 |
jeremylichtman | Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 80 |
jeremylichtman | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
dada | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
praedico | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
malcmur | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
slobodan | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
cdob63 | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
clinton | Less than 125,000 | 0 |
mparrault | Less than 125,000 | 2 |
ravel | Less than 125,000 | 7 |
patrickmeehan5 | Less than 125,000 | 100 |
patrickmeehan5 | More than 250,000 | 0 |
jeremylichtman | More than 250,000 | 20 |
ravel | More than 250,000 | 21 |
dada | More than 250,000 | 35 |
clinton | More than 250,000 | 58 |
praedico | More than 250,000 | 60 |
mparrault | More than 250,000 | 60 |
malcmur | More than 250,000 | 65 |
cdob63 | More than 250,000 | 68 |
slobodan | More than 250,000 | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive | 40 | 41 |
Less than 125,000 | 11 | 11 |
More than 250,000 | 49 | 48 |
Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
dada | Yes | 0 |
clinton | Yes | 0 |
jeremylichtman | Yes | 1 |
ravel | Yes | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
malcmur | Yes | 2 |
mparrault | Yes | 2 |
praedico | Yes | 5 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 99 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 21 | 21 |
Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
jeremylichtman | Yes | 0 |
dada | Yes | 0 |
praedico | Yes | 0 |
malcmur | Yes | 0 |
clinton | Yes | 0 |
ravel | Yes | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
mparrault | Yes | 1 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 20 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 12 | 12 |
Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
clinton | Yes | 0 |
jeremylichtman | Yes | 1 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
dada | Yes | 3 |
mparrault | Yes | 3 |
praedico | Yes | 5 |
malcmur | Yes | 10 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 10 |
ravel | Yes | 15 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 5 | 5 |
Middle East
Closed: 1
How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
A majority | Yes |
A plurality | No |
Not a plurality | No |
# Forecasters: 154
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.293748 | okhope18 |
2 | -1.234406 | dcdiamond |
3 | -1.013102 | KSpain |
4 | -0.965664 | Raisinville |
5 | -0.944200 | KaiserSoze |
6 | -0.885844 | admiralporky |
7 | -0.832296 | Kleto |
8 | -0.831651 | markusbehrend |
9 | -0.822941 | Lucky |
10 | -0.819554 | Costarican |
11 | -0.819554 | kksartorius |
12 | -0.817819 | Stewart Edwards |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Middle East
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.885844 | admiralporky |
2 | -0.741090 | Amir |
3 | -0.592619 | kormac |
4 | -0.503751 | nls |
5 | -0.172201 | Heffalump |
6 | -0.164852 | Spandrelbarca |
7 | -0.156167 | Clairvoyance |
8 | -0.148723 | 000 |
9 | -0.135981 | mparrault |
10 | -0.132594 | cmeinel |
11 | -0.099533 | Jean-Pierre |
12 | -0.096062 | slobodan |
Open: 5
Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
admiralporky | No | 40 |
Jean-Pierre | No | 90 |
Heffalump | No | 90 |
cmeinel | No | 94 |
kormac | No | 95 |
Amir | No | 97 |
nls | No | 98 |
mparrault | No | 98 |
Spandrelbarca | No | 99 |
Clairvoyance | No | 100 |
slobodan | No | 100 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 0 |
Amir | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 0 |
nls | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 1 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 1 |
cmeinel | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 2 |
mparrault | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 2 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 5 |
Heffalump | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 5 |
kormac | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 5 |
admiralporky | Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 30 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 0 |
kormac | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 0 |
mparrault | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 0 |
nls | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 1 |
Heffalump | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 3 |
Amir | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 3 |
cmeinel | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 4 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 5 |
admiralporky | Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 30 |
admiralporky | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
nls | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
kormac | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
mparrault | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
Amir | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 |
Heffalump | Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 1 |
admiralporky | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
nls | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
kormac | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
mparrault | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
Amir | Yes, Someone else | 0 |
Heffalump | Yes, Someone else | 1 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
No | 91 | 91 |
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef | 5 | 5 |
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman | 4 | 4 |
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz | 0 | 0 |
Yes, Someone else | 0 | 0 |
Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
Amir | Yes | 0 |
Clairvoyance | Yes | 5 |
mparrault | Yes | 5 |
cmeinel | Yes | 7 |
nls | Yes | 10 |
kormac | Yes | 10 |
Heffalump | Yes | 13 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 13 |
admiralporky | Yes | 22 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 8 | 8 |
Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
admiralporky | No | 0 |
slobodan | No | 0 |
nls | No | 52 |
Heffalump | No | 68 |
kormac | No | 80 |
Clairvoyance | No | 85 |
mparrault | No | 91 |
Jean-Pierre | No | 92 |
cmeinel | No | 95 |
Spandrelbarca | No | 95 |
Amir | No | 100 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 0 |
Amir | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 1 |
mparrault | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 1 |
nls | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 2 |
Heffalump | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 3 |
kormac | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 5 |
admiralporky | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 15 |
slobodan | Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 100 |
slobodan | Yes, only Article 4 | 0 |
Amir | Yes, only Article 4 | 0 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, only Article 4 | 5 |
cmeinel | Yes, only Article 4 | 5 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, only Article 4 | 5 |
mparrault | Yes, only Article 4 | 7 |
kormac | Yes, only Article 4 | 10 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, only Article 4 | 15 |
Heffalump | Yes, only Article 4 | 27 |
nls | Yes, only Article 4 | 40 |
admiralporky | Yes, only Article 4 | 80 |
Clairvoyance | Yes, only Article 5 | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes, only Article 5 | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, only Article 5 | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, only Article 5 | 0 |
Amir | Yes, only Article 5 | 0 |
mparrault | Yes, only Article 5 | 1 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes, only Article 5 | 2 |
Heffalump | Yes, only Article 5 | 2 |
admiralporky | Yes, only Article 5 | 5 |
kormac | Yes, only Article 5 | 5 |
nls | Yes, only Article 5 | 6 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
No | 69 | 68 |
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 | 12 | 12 |
Yes, only Article 4 | 18 | 18 |
Yes, only Article 5 | 2 | 2 |
Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Clairvoyance | Yes | 0 |
cmeinel | Yes | 5 |
mparrault | Yes | 5 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 7 |
nls | Yes | 10 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 15 |
kormac | Yes | 30 |
Heffalump | Yes | 60 |
admiralporky | Yes | 70 |
Amir | Yes | 75 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 34 | 35 |
Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 3 |
cmeinel | Yes | 20 |
mparrault | Yes | 45 |
Clairvoyance | Yes | 50 |
Heffalump | Yes | 50 |
Amir | Yes | 51 |
nls | Yes | 55 |
kormac | Yes | 75 |
admiralporky | Yes | 80 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 95 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 57 | 57 |
North America
Closed: 2
Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Conservative | No |
Liberal | Yes |
New Democratic Party | No |
Other | No |
# Forecasters: 135
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.171706 | Falconer |
2 | -1.102249 | NHUNGUYEN |
3 | -0.847992 | Raisinville |
4 | -0.744564 | ed3 |
5 | -0.681578 | GJDrew |
6 | -0.588755 | Forecaster1971 |
7 | -0.564292 | Rote |
8 | -0.540049 | einsteinjs |
9 | -0.524206 | Khalid |
10 | -0.515710 | p_odo |
11 | -0.515648 | khoshea |
12 | -0.492153 | patrickmeehan5 |
Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 325
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.150136 | Rebel ran riot |
2 | -0.150136 | Praxis |
3 | -0.150136 | Jamison |
4 | -0.149936 | flc79 |
5 | -0.149780 | mayflower |
6 | -0.147305 | 000 |
7 | -0.147271 | Dwight Smith |
8 | -0.146936 | moria |
9 | -0.145351 | DoctorWho |
10 | -0.145136 | ricofig |
11 | -0.145136 | GottaWearShades |
12 | -0.144873 | Falconer |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North America
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.316579 | Falconer |
2 | -0.847992 | Raisinville |
3 | -0.756784 | GJDrew |
4 | -0.744564 | ed3 |
5 | -0.627708 | p_odo |
6 | -0.605262 | patrickmeehan5 |
7 | -0.589885 | cdob63 |
8 | -0.588755 | Forecaster1971 |
9 | -0.572298 | Rote |
10 | -0.542590 | einsteinjs |
11 | -0.537919 | kbub |
12 | -0.515648 | khoshea |
Open: 0
North Korea
Closed: 3
Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 260
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.594570 | dowser |
2 | -0.588922 | redacted |
3 | -0.577257 | catmob |
4 | -0.576413 | Konrad |
5 | -0.570101 | Diplo |
6 | -0.565070 | Anneinak |
7 | -0.559343 | Rote |
8 | -0.558945 | rebeccams |
9 | -0.557351 | 974david |
10 | -0.555618 | Rebel ran riot |
11 | -0.550788 | Hammer Time |
12 | -0.548445 | aaron |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 196
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.535603 | lsgold7 |
2 | -0.531094 | dowser |
3 | -0.515042 | slobodan |
4 | -0.505919 | rbertoni01 |
5 | -0.505130 | petth |
6 | -0.488024 | azureskai |
7 | -0.465217 | dukeglk |
8 | -0.465217 | sandyr |
9 | -0.462761 | MAA414 |
10 | -0.455393 | hyperionok |
11 | -0.449252 | Lucky |
12 | -0.449252 | maxmersinger |
Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 100
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.180665 | einsteinjs |
2 | -0.180665 | slobodan |
3 | -0.180665 | agent23421 |
4 | -0.180465 | redacted |
5 | -0.180313 | jkbick |
6 | -0.180160 | Sjens |
7 | -0.180065 | scholarandcat |
8 | -0.179865 | superfrog |
9 | -0.178722 | austerity |
10 | -0.178046 | Jean-Pierre |
11 | -0.177560 | dowser |
12 | -0.177417 | Rene |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North Korea
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.303224 | dowser |
2 | -1.151355 | slobodan |
3 | -1.097375 | petth |
4 | -0.925000 | lsgold7 |
5 | -0.898515 | Anneinak |
6 | -0.856419 | clinton |
7 | -0.856025 | austerity |
8 | -0.831951 | cdob63 |
9 | -0.785615 | ravel |
10 | -0.761080 | morrell |
11 | -0.711383 | Sjens |
12 | -0.639944 | einsteinjs |
Open: 3
Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
clinton | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 18 |
Sjens | Yes | 20 |
petth | Yes | 25 |
ravel | Yes | 55 |
austerity | Yes | 70 |
morrell | Yes | 70 |
dowser | Yes | 85 |
lsgold7 | Yes | 87 |
Anneinak | Yes | 100 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
einsteinjs | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 61 | 61 |
Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Anneinak | Yes | 0 |
dowser | Yes | 0 |
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
Sjens | Yes | 1 |
clinton | Yes | 1 |
einsteinjs | Yes | 2 |
morrell | Yes | 4 |
ravel | Yes | 4 |
lsgold7 | Yes | 7 |
cdob63 | Yes | 12 |
austerity | Yes | 15 |
petth | Yes | 55 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 8 | 8 |
Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Sjens | Yes | 18 |
petth | Yes | 25 |
ravel | Yes | 28 |
cdob63 | Yes | 41 |
dowser | Yes | 55 |
morrell | Yes | 75 |
Anneinak | Yes | 88 |
einsteinjs | Yes | 88 |
austerity | Yes | 95 |
lsgold7 | Yes | 96 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
clinton | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 67 | 62 |
Russia
Closed: 4
Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 43
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.752141 | Wagle |
2 | -0.464329 | jeremylichtman |
3 | -0.464329 | mrcrea |
4 | -0.444566 | Rebel ran riot |
5 | -0.413391 | patrickmeehan5 |
6 | -0.349279 | Manfred |
7 | -0.309641 | Jay R |
8 | -0.304954 | vjp22 |
9 | -0.298704 | hyperionok |
10 | -0.297141 | skepticalforecaster |
11 | -0.293516 | Hideous Cheese Blunder |
12 | -0.286829 | Konrad |
How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Majority | Yes |
Not a Plurality | No |
Plurality | No |
# Forecasters: 92
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.580368 | Falconer |
2 | -1.164118 | TVANKSTA |
3 | -1.097651 | fleppy |
4 | -1.094109 | fewchur |
5 | -1.051400 | farmorit |
6 | -1.047451 | put3000 |
7 | -1.042868 | shador13 |
8 | -1.024900 | klajoklis |
9 | -1.001400 | Kevin “Rusty” Peters. |
10 | -0.928796 | tylerh |
11 | -0.917868 | arnbold |
12 | -0.912963 | gkiljan |
Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 136
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.901566 | slobodan |
2 | -0.892945 | Falconer |
3 | -0.887849 | redacted |
4 | -0.875704 | KSpain |
5 | -0.832600 | CR |
6 | -0.826825 | Ioana |
7 | -0.814321 | mike97mike |
8 | -0.801566 | qsmithtx |
9 | -0.788118 | Titan7160 |
10 | -0.767945 | broflovsky |
11 | -0.761452 | Jean-Pierre |
12 | -0.751652 | controllerzhu |
Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 96
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.102675 | Falconer |
2 | -0.102675 | einsteinjs |
3 | -0.102675 | 000 |
4 | -0.102675 | Rather Witless Design |
5 | -0.102675 | dada |
6 | -0.102675 | kormac |
7 | -0.102675 | k13rkeg44rd |
8 | -0.102625 | redacted |
9 | -0.102598 | clinton |
10 | -0.102556 | scholarandcat |
11 | -0.102506 | cdob63 |
12 | -0.102475 | Raisinville |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Russia
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.466399 | malcmur |
2 | -1.144176 | patrickmeehan5 |
3 | -1.052872 | slobodan |
4 | -0.330628 | petth |
5 | -0.213984 | 000 |
6 | -0.212760 | cdob63 |
7 | -0.101606 | dominich |
8 | -0.072167 | Spandrelbarca |
9 | -0.026780 | mparrault |
Open: 9
How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | 0 | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | 0 | 0 |
petth | 0 | 20 |
Spandrelbarca | 0 | 55 |
dominich | 0 | 70 |
malcmur | 0 | 75 |
cdob63 | 0 | 82 |
mparrault | 0 | 85 |
petth | All | 0 |
dominich | All | 0 |
slobodan | All | 0 |
cdob63 | All | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | All | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | All | 0 |
malcmur | All | 5 |
mparrault | All | 6 |
slobodan | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 0 |
mparrault | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 7 |
malcmur | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 15 |
cdob63 | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 17 |
dominich | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 30 |
Spandrelbarca | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 40 |
petth | Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 50 |
dominich | More than five, but less than all | 0 |
cdob63 | More than five, but less than all | 1 |
mparrault | More than five, but less than all | 2 |
malcmur | More than five, but less than all | 5 |
Spandrelbarca | More than five, but less than all | 5 |
petth | More than five, but less than all | 30 |
slobodan | More than five, but less than all | 100 |
patrickmeehan5 | More than five, but less than all | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
0 | 48 | 49 |
All | 1 | 1 |
Between 1 and 5, inclusive | 20 | 20 |
More than five, but less than all | 30 | 30 |
Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
malcmur | Yes | 3 |
mparrault | Yes | 8 |
dominich | Yes | 10 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 15 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 33 |
petth | Yes | 40 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 26 | 26 |
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
malcmur | Yes | 10 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 20 |
cdob63 | Yes | 24 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 25 |
dominich | Yes | 30 |
mparrault | Yes | 30 |
petth | Yes | 75 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 39 | 40 |
Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
malcmur | Yes | 0 |
dominich | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 1 |
mparrault | Yes | 1 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 10 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 20 |
petth | Yes | 55 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 23 | 23 |
Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
petth | Yes | 15 |
malcmur | Yes | 15 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 15 |
cdob63 | Yes | 28 |
mparrault | Yes | 30 |
dominich | Yes | 60 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 90 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 44 | 45 |
Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 5 |
petth | Yes | 35 |
cdob63 | Yes | 38 |
mparrault | Yes | 60 |
dominich | Yes | 65 |
malcmur | Yes | 70 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 85 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 57 | 53 |
Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
cdob63 | Yes | 2 |
malcmur | Yes | 6 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes | 8 |
mparrault | Yes | 9 |
dominich | Yes | 10 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 25 |
petth | Yes | 45 |
slobodan | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 26 | 26 |
Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | No | 0 |
petth | No | 55 |
Spandrelbarca | No | 75 |
patrickmeehan5 | No | 90 |
mparrault | No | 95 |
cdob63 | No | 99 |
malcmur | No | 100 |
dominich | No | 100 |
malcmur | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
dominich | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
slobodan | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 0 |
mparrault | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 1 |
petth | Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 10 |
malcmur | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 0 |
dominich | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 1 |
mparrault | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 4 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 10 |
Spandrelbarca | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 25 |
petth | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 35 |
slobodan | Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
No | 77 | 76 |
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine | 1 | 2 |
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine | 22 | 22 |
How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 0 |
patrickmeehan5 | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 0 |
dominich | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 40 |
petth | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 55 |
Spandrelbarca | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 65 |
mparrault | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 73 |
malcmur | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 75 |
cdob63 | At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 96 |
patrickmeehan5 | At least two-thirds of all seats | 0 |
cdob63 | At least two-thirds of all seats | 4 |
malcmur | At least two-thirds of all seats | 5 |
mparrault | At least two-thirds of all seats | 20 |
petth | At least two-thirds of all seats | 25 |
Spandrelbarca | At least two-thirds of all seats | 35 |
dominich | At least two-thirds of all seats | 60 |
slobodan | At least two-thirds of all seats | 100 |
dominich | Less than half | 0 |
slobodan | Less than half | 0 |
cdob63 | Less than half | 0 |
Spandrelbarca | Less than half | 0 |
mparrault | Less than half | 7 |
petth | Less than half | 20 |
malcmur | Less than half | 20 |
patrickmeehan5 | Less than half | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 50 | 51 |
At least two-thirds of all seats | 31 | 31 |
Less than half | 18 | 18 |
Sports
Closed: 1
Who will win the World Series?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
A team from the American League | Yes |
A team from the National League | No |
# Forecasters: 191
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.907805 | slobodan |
2 | -0.901973 | Rebel ran riot |
3 | -0.884169 | Mroochyslav |
4 | -0.875624 | jeremylichtman |
5 | -0.856591 | patrickmeehan5 |
6 | -0.850351 | sawyerwhip |
7 | -0.850351 | BenP |
8 | -0.850351 | joenb |
9 | -0.850351 | ShotintheDark |
10 | -0.838176 | cbrophy |
11 | -0.833805 | Gor999 |
12 | -0.820896 | BestGuess |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Sports
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.907805 | slobodan |
2 | -0.856591 | patrickmeehan5 |
3 | -0.731624 | Delorean |
4 | -0.503747 | dada |
5 | -0.411260 | khoshea |
6 | -0.392714 | yaifuz26 |
7 | -0.375078 | KSpain |
8 | -0.344351 | ravel |
9 | -0.315791 | 000 |
10 | -0.264533 | Davidoff400 |
11 | -0.237624 | JP |
12 | -0.047805 | kormac |
Open: 2
Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Davidoff400 | Yes | 55 |
ravel | Yes | 93 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 95 |
KSpain | Yes | 95 |
dada | Yes | 99 |
slobodan | Yes | 99 |
khoshea | Yes | 99 |
JP | Yes | 100 |
Delorean | Yes | 100 |
kormac | Yes | 100 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 94 | 94 |
Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
slobodan | Yes | 0 |
dada | Yes | 5 |
yaifuz26 | Yes | 15 |
ravel | Yes | 21 |
JP | Yes | 25 |
kormac | Yes | 40 |
KSpain | Yes | 50 |
patrickmeehan5 | Yes | 50 |
Davidoff400 | Yes | 55 |
Delorean | Yes | 60 |
khoshea | Yes | 75 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 36 | 39 |
Syria
Closed: 3
Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?
Answer: Yes
# Forecasters: 111
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.202808 | Anneinak |
2 | -0.202808 | cmeinel |
3 | -0.202808 | Falconer |
4 | -0.202808 | einsteinjs |
5 | -0.202808 | September |
6 | -0.202808 | clinton |
7 | -0.202808 | Spandrelbarca |
8 | -0.202808 | 000 |
9 | -0.202808 | Hammer Time |
10 | -0.202808 | dowser |
11 | -0.202808 | Agent0090 |
12 | -0.202808 | madre |
As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
1 million or more | Yes |
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive | No |
Less than 560,000 | No |
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million | No |
# Forecasters: 328
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.495237 | slobodan |
2 | -1.475237 | thomas.r |
3 | -1.375237 | Jamison |
4 | -1.272437 | vasil |
5 | -1.257445 | Cdrapp |
6 | -1.113237 | jimmccue |
7 | -1.085793 | Rhysbros |
8 | -1.062117 | afoyfs |
9 | -0.998537 | jeremylichtman |
10 | -0.974437 | zwzhang |
11 | -0.906837 | jimglynn |
12 | -0.882152 | lydia.albanis |
Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 586
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.077117 | UnderwaterPutin |
2 | -0.077117 | dominich |
3 | -0.077117 | grossz18 |
4 | -0.077117 | Heffalump |
5 | -0.077117 | cmeinel |
6 | -0.077117 | Falconer |
7 | -0.077117 | einsteinjs |
8 | -0.077117 | Khalid |
9 | -0.077117 | vernscot |
10 | -0.077117 | Delorean |
11 | -0.077117 | slobodan |
12 | -0.077117 | Rebel ran riot |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Syria
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.598925 | Jean-Pierre |
2 | -0.399234 | 000 |
3 | -0.274495 | ckruger |
4 | -0.258114 | cdob63 |
Open: 6
Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ckruger | Yes | 1 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 5 |
cdob63 | Yes | 26 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 11 | 11 |
Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 0 |
ckruger | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 2 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1 | 1 |
Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ckruger | Yes | 65 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 66 |
cdob63 | Yes | 71 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 67 | 76 |
Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ckruger | Yes | 5 |
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 8 |
cdob63 | Yes | 13 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 9 | 9 |
When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Before 13 March 2016 | 0 |
ckruger | Before 13 March 2016 | 0 |
cdob63 | Before 13 March 2016 | 0 |
ckruger | Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive | 2 |
cdob63 | Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive | 9 |
Jean-Pierre | Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive | 13 |
Jean-Pierre | Not before 1 July 2016 | 87 |
cdob63 | Not before 1 July 2016 | 91 |
ckruger | Not before 1 July 2016 | 98 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Before 13 March 2016 | 0 | 0 |
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive | 8 | 8 |
Not before 1 July 2016 | 92 | 92 |
Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
Jean-Pierre | Yes | 5 |
cdob63 | Yes | 58 |
ckruger | Yes | 80 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 48 | 46 |
US Presidential election
Closed: 8
Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 302
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.283507 | donmars |
2 | -0.283342 | einsteinjs |
3 | -0.282137 | The Brown Recluse |
4 | -0.281471 | Buffalo |
5 | -0.277822 | Lucky |
6 | -0.277822 | LeftCoastRightBrain |
7 | -0.277822 | Swede |
8 | -0.277822 | BestGuess |
9 | -0.277822 | Atyler83 |
10 | -0.272890 | mmccaule |
11 | -0.272890 | VagabondJim |
12 | -0.272890 | usajvbueno |
Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 420
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.282756 | JeanP |
2 | -0.277756 | Jonah B52 |
3 | -0.275592 | arnbold |
4 | -0.275035 | redacted |
5 | -0.271562 | patrickmeehan5 |
6 | -0.267830 | Asteras |
7 | -0.267830 | Rebel ran riot |
8 | -0.267636 | SteveBoothButterfield |
9 | -0.264815 | Spandrelbarca |
10 | -0.264099 | legant |
11 | -0.264099 | JoeLakeBSJ2LC |
12 | -0.264099 | WGlazer |
Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?
Answer: No
# Forecasters: 1765
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.500981 | richtyge |
2 | -0.494507 | hoopengarners |
3 | -0.494507 | gmyu |
4 | -0.493134 | patrickmeehan5 |
5 | -0.490986 | mayflower |
6 | -0.490986 | Woodasch |
7 | -0.490986 | legant |
8 | -0.490986 | JRoy |
9 | -0.490986 | Dougefresh |
10 | -0.489648 | PowerQuilter |
11 | -0.488592 | Hammer Time |
12 | -0.488592 | scientifics |
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Ben Carson | No |
Carly Fiorina | No |
Chris Christie | No |
Donald Trump | No |
Jeb Bush | No |
Jim Gilmore | No |
John Kasich | No |
Marco Rubio | No |
Mike Huckabee | No |
Rand Paul | No |
Rick Santorum | No |
Ted Cruz | Yes |
# Forecasters: 1086
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -3.240460 | maxharris |
2 | -2.944160 | austerity |
3 | -2.853260 | Peter Katzenfisch |
4 | -2.816960 | moscow25 |
5 | -2.794593 | bdenison |
6 | -2.740827 | sh517 |
7 | -2.709160 | mattdabrowski |
8 | -2.707493 | jcurry1 |
9 | -2.665827 | budwiser |
10 | -2.654160 | taylorcp |
11 | -2.654160 | web |
12 | -2.654160 | anthony_nyc |
Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Bernie Sanders | No |
Hillary Clinton | Yes |
Martin O Malley | No |
# Forecasters: 543
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -1.034374 | slobodan |
2 | -1.034374 | Rhysbros |
3 | -1.034374 | AlexisTocqueville |
4 | -1.034374 | JHH |
5 | -1.032207 | Pinch_Benedict |
6 | -1.031607 | dkc |
7 | -1.026674 | BlindWilliam |
8 | -1.025207 | Skybullet |
9 | -1.019674 | einsteinjs |
10 | -1.017507 | Vuk_Vukovic |
11 | -0.977607 | lsgold7 |
12 | -0.966874 | argon1 |
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Ben Carson | No |
Carly Fiorina | No |
Chris Christie | No |
Donald Trump | Yes |
Jeb Bush | No |
Jim Gilmore | No |
John Kasich | No |
Marco Rubio | No |
Mike Huckabee | No |
Rand Paul | No |
Rick Santorum | No |
Ted Cruz | No |
# Forecasters: 711
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -3.350271 | slobodan |
2 | -3.350271 | alistaircookie |
3 | -3.350271 | AlexisTocqueville |
4 | -3.349302 | ckruger |
5 | -3.345471 | taxesa1 |
6 | -3.342860 | jwildberger |
7 | -3.320271 | ThreePredictor |
8 | -3.318713 | Dima K |
9 | -3.318671 | Vuk_Vukovic |
10 | -3.315450 | RickRock |
11 | -3.314902 | Iainhen99 |
12 | -3.310271 | Mroochyslav |
After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Bernie Sanders | No |
Hillary Clinton | Yes |
# Forecasters: 372
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -0.734940 | Anneinak |
2 | -0.734940 | clinton |
3 | -0.734940 | Jean-Pierre |
4 | -0.734940 | dowser |
5 | -0.734940 | slobodan |
6 | -0.734940 | scholarandcat |
7 | -0.734940 | chackpal |
8 | -0.734940 | DChristensen |
9 | -0.734940 | willmartin |
10 | -0.734940 | Ice_Panther7 |
11 | -0.734940 | Stmrb05 |
12 | -0.734877 | MaRott |
After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch | Answer |
---|---|
Ben Carson | No |
Donald Trump | Yes |
Jeb Bush | No |
Jim Gilmore | No |
John Kasich | No |
Marco Rubio | No |
Ted Cruz | No |
# Forecasters: 637
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -2.102965 | slobodan |
2 | -2.102965 | alistaircookie |
3 | -2.097849 | clinton |
4 | -2.081912 | DChristensen |
5 | -2.060333 | Dwight Smith |
6 | -2.055070 | swanked |
7 | -2.011933 | Aches |
8 | -2.004691 | Stmrb05 |
9 | -1.972965 | dowser |
10 | -1.972123 | BlueSteel |
11 | -1.959617 | Jean-Pierre |
12 | -1.952438 | Laeve |
Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster US Presidential election
Rank | Accuracy | Forecaster |
---|---|---|
1 | -8.726924 | vox vox |
2 | -8.611191 | ckruger |
3 | -7.675277 | cdob63 |
4 | -7.323830 | 000 |
5 | -7.108089 | ravel |
6 | -7.033450 | dada |
7 | -6.600029 | Cora |
8 | -6.342771 | ESR |
9 | -6.318066 | lindsey91 |
10 | -5.954078 | dowser |
11 | -5.465459 | GJDrew |
12 | -5.148412 | tomh |
Open: 8
Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
vox vox | Ben Carson | 0 |
lindsey91 | Ben Carson | 0 |
dada | Ben Carson | 0 |
GJDrew | Ben Carson | 0 |
ESR | Ben Carson | 0 |
ckruger | Ben Carson | 0 |
dowser | Ben Carson | 0 |
ravel | Ben Carson | 0 |
cdob63 | Ben Carson | 0 |
Cora | Ben Carson | 0 |
tomh | Ben Carson | 0 |
vox vox | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
lindsey91 | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
dada | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
GJDrew | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
ESR | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
ckruger | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
dowser | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
ravel | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
cdob63 | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
Cora | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
tomh | Carly Fiorina | 0 |
tomh | Donald Trump | 55 |
cdob63 | Donald Trump | 56 |
lindsey91 | Donald Trump | 64 |
dowser | Donald Trump | 65 |
Cora | Donald Trump | 65 |
GJDrew | Donald Trump | 66 |
ESR | Donald Trump | 66 |
vox vox | Donald Trump | 74 |
ravel | Donald Trump | 90 |
ckruger | Donald Trump | 94 |
dada | Donald Trump | 95 |
vox vox | Jeb Bush | 0 |
lindsey91 | Jeb Bush | 0 |
dada | Jeb Bush | 0 |
GJDrew | Jeb Bush | 0 |
ESR | Jeb Bush | 0 |
ckruger | Jeb Bush | 0 |
dowser | Jeb Bush | 0 |
ravel | Jeb Bush | 0 |
cdob63 | Jeb Bush | 0 |
Cora | Jeb Bush | 0 |
tomh | Jeb Bush | 0 |
dada | Marco Rubio | 0 |
ckruger | Marco Rubio | 0 |
dowser | Marco Rubio | 0 |
ravel | Marco Rubio | 0 |
tomh | Marco Rubio | 0 |
vox vox | Marco Rubio | 5 |
lindsey91 | Marco Rubio | 7 |
GJDrew | Marco Rubio | 8 |
cdob63 | Marco Rubio | 11 |
Cora | Marco Rubio | 15 |
ESR | Marco Rubio | 16 |
dada | None of the above | 0 |
ckruger | None of the above | 0 |
cdob63 | None of the above | 0 |
Cora | None of the above | 0 |
tomh | None of the above | 0 |
vox vox | None of the above | 2 |
ESR | None of the above | 2 |
GJDrew | None of the above | 10 |
ravel | None of the above | 10 |
lindsey91 | None of the above | 13 |
dowser | None of the above | 20 |
ravel | Ted Cruz | 0 |
dada | Ted Cruz | 5 |
ckruger | Ted Cruz | 6 |
dowser | Ted Cruz | 15 |
lindsey91 | Ted Cruz | 16 |
GJDrew | Ted Cruz | 16 |
ESR | Ted Cruz | 16 |
vox vox | Ted Cruz | 19 |
Cora | Ted Cruz | 20 |
cdob63 | Ted Cruz | 33 |
tomh | Ted Cruz | 45 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Ben Carson | 0 | 0 |
Carly Fiorina | 0 | 0 |
Donald Trump | 72 | 70 |
Jeb Bush | 0 | 0 |
Marco Rubio | 6 | 16 |
None of the above | 5 | 8 |
Ted Cruz | 17 | 6 |
Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ckruger | Bernie Sanders | 0 |
cdob63 | Bernie Sanders | 0 |
vox vox | Bernie Sanders | 1 |
dada | Bernie Sanders | 5 |
dowser | Bernie Sanders | 5 |
lindsey91 | Bernie Sanders | 8 |
ESR | Bernie Sanders | 10 |
tomh | Bernie Sanders | 10 |
Cora | Bernie Sanders | 15 |
GJDrew | Bernie Sanders | 20 |
ravel | Bernie Sanders | 59 |
ravel | Hillary Clinton | 41 |
GJDrew | Hillary Clinton | 80 |
Cora | Hillary Clinton | 85 |
ESR | Hillary Clinton | 90 |
tomh | Hillary Clinton | 90 |
lindsey91 | Hillary Clinton | 92 |
dada | Hillary Clinton | 95 |
dowser | Hillary Clinton | 95 |
vox vox | Hillary Clinton | 99 |
ckruger | Hillary Clinton | 100 |
cdob63 | Hillary Clinton | 100 |
vox vox | Martin O Malley | 0 |
lindsey91 | Martin O Malley | 0 |
dada | Martin O Malley | 0 |
GJDrew | Martin O Malley | 0 |
ESR | Martin O Malley | 0 |
ckruger | Martin O Malley | 0 |
dowser | Martin O Malley | 0 |
ravel | Martin O Malley | 0 |
cdob63 | Martin O Malley | 0 |
Cora | Martin O Malley | 0 |
tomh | Martin O Malley | 0 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Bernie Sanders | 12 | 11 |
Hillary Clinton | 88 | 89 |
Martin O Malley | 0 | 0 |
Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
lindsey91 | Yes | 60 |
GJDrew | Yes | 60 |
ESR | Yes | 68 |
dowser | Yes | 70 |
tomh | Yes | 80 |
cdob63 | Yes | 81 |
Cora | Yes | 85 |
dada | Yes | 88 |
ravel | Yes | 89 |
vox vox | Yes | 90 |
ckruger | Yes | 95 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 79 | 88 |
Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | A Democrat | 33 |
GJDrew | A Democrat | 53 |
dowser | A Democrat | 55 |
ESR | A Democrat | 58 |
lindsey91 | A Democrat | 65 |
Cora | A Democrat | 65 |
tomh | A Democrat | 75 |
vox vox | A Democrat | 80 |
dada | A Democrat | 90 |
ckruger | A Democrat | 90 |
cdob63 | A Democrat | 92 |
cdob63 | A Republican | 8 |
dada | A Republican | 10 |
ckruger | A Republican | 10 |
vox vox | A Republican | 20 |
tomh | A Republican | 25 |
lindsey91 | A Republican | 33 |
Cora | A Republican | 35 |
ESR | A Republican | 42 |
GJDrew | A Republican | 44 |
dowser | A Republican | 45 |
ravel | A Republican | 58 |
vox vox | Other | 0 |
dada | Other | 0 |
ESR | Other | 0 |
ckruger | Other | 0 |
dowser | Other | 0 |
cdob63 | Other | 0 |
Cora | Other | 0 |
tomh | Other | 0 |
lindsey91 | Other | 2 |
GJDrew | Other | 3 |
ravel | Other | 9 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
A Democrat | 69 | 74 |
A Republican | 30 | 24 |
Other | 1 | 2 |
(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ravel | Democrat | 0 |
dowser | Democrat | 55 |
GJDrew | Democrat | 60 |
ESR | Democrat | 66 |
dada | Democrat | 73 |
Cora | Democrat | 75 |
lindsey91 | Democrat | 80 |
vox vox | Democrat | 85 |
cdob63 | Democrat | 97 |
ckruger | Democrat | 98 |
tomh | Democrat | 99 |
vox vox | Other | 0 |
ESR | Other | 0 |
ckruger | Other | 0 |
dowser | Other | 0 |
ravel | Other | 0 |
cdob63 | Other | 0 |
Cora | Other | 0 |
tomh | Other | 0 |
lindsey91 | Other | 1 |
GJDrew | Other | 5 |
dada | Other | 13 |
tomh | Republican | 1 |
ckruger | Republican | 2 |
cdob63 | Republican | 3 |
dada | Republican | 14 |
vox vox | Republican | 15 |
lindsey91 | Republican | 19 |
Cora | Republican | 25 |
ESR | Republican | 34 |
GJDrew | Republican | 35 |
dowser | Republican | 45 |
ravel | Republican | 100 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Democrat | 72 | 69 |
Other | 2 | 2 |
Republican | 27 | 29 |
Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
ckruger | Yes | 0 |
cdob63 | Yes | 5 |
vox vox | Yes | 22 |
ESR | Yes | 33 |
ravel | Yes | 41 |
dowser | Yes | 45 |
lindsey91 | Yes | 52 |
dada | Yes | 52 |
GJDrew | Yes | 55 |
Cora | Yes | 60 |
tomh | Yes | 85 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Yes | 41 | 39 |
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
dada | Donald Trump | 25 |
ESR | Donald Trump | 35 |
dowser | Donald Trump | 38 |
lindsey91 | Donald Trump | 40 |
Cora | Donald Trump | 40 |
GJDrew | Donald Trump | 45 |
ckruger | Donald Trump | 45 |
cdob63 | Donald Trump | 48 |
vox vox | Donald Trump | 50 |
ravel | Donald Trump | 53 |
tomh | Donald Trump | 60 |
ravel | John Kasich | 35 |
tomh | John Kasich | 40 |
cdob63 | John Kasich | 49 |
vox vox | John Kasich | 50 |
Cora | John Kasich | 50 |
lindsey91 | John Kasich | 55 |
GJDrew | John Kasich | 55 |
ckruger | John Kasich | 55 |
dowser | John Kasich | 56 |
ESR | John Kasich | 64 |
dada | John Kasich | 75 |
vox vox | Marco Rubio | 0 |
lindsey91 | Marco Rubio | 0 |
dada | Marco Rubio | 0 |
GJDrew | Marco Rubio | 0 |
ESR | Marco Rubio | 0 |
ckruger | Marco Rubio | 0 |
ravel | Marco Rubio | 0 |
cdob63 | Marco Rubio | 0 |
tomh | Marco Rubio | 0 |
dowser | Marco Rubio | 1 |
Cora | Marco Rubio | 5 |
vox vox | Ted Cruz | 0 |
dada | Ted Cruz | 0 |
GJDrew | Ted Cruz | 0 |
ckruger | Ted Cruz | 0 |
tomh | Ted Cruz | 0 |
ESR | Ted Cruz | 1 |
cdob63 | Ted Cruz | 3 |
lindsey91 | Ted Cruz | 5 |
dowser | Ted Cruz | 5 |
Cora | Ted Cruz | 5 |
ravel | Ted Cruz | 12 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 44 | 48 |
John Kasich | 53 | 52 |
Marco Rubio | 1 | 0 |
Ted Cruz | 3 | 0 |
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster | Branch | Prediction |
---|---|---|
dowser | Donald Trump | 58 |
GJDrew | Donald Trump | 60 |
ravel | Donald Trump | 65 |
ESR | Donald Trump | 70 |
Cora | Donald Trump | 70 |
tomh | Donald Trump | 75 |
lindsey91 | Donald Trump | 78 |
cdob63 | Donald Trump | 80 |
vox vox | Donald Trump | 82 |
dada | Donald Trump | 89 |
ckruger | Donald Trump | 90 |
vox vox | John Kasich | 0 |
lindsey91 | John Kasich | 0 |
dada | John Kasich | 0 |
GJDrew | John Kasich | 0 |
ESR | John Kasich | 0 |
ckruger | John Kasich | 0 |
dowser | John Kasich | 0 |
ravel | John Kasich | 0 |
cdob63 | John Kasich | 0 |
Cora | John Kasich | 0 |
tomh | John Kasich | 0 |
ckruger | Marco Rubio | 5 |
dada | Marco Rubio | 11 |
cdob63 | Marco Rubio | 11 |
vox vox | Marco Rubio | 15 |
ravel | Marco Rubio | 15 |
lindsey91 | Marco Rubio | 19 |
Cora | Marco Rubio | 25 |
tomh | Marco Rubio | 25 |
ESR | Marco Rubio | 30 |
dowser | Marco Rubio | 31 |
GJDrew | Marco Rubio | 40 |
dada | Ted Cruz | 0 |
GJDrew | Ted Cruz | 0 |
ESR | Ted Cruz | 0 |
tomh | Ted Cruz | 0 |
vox vox | Ted Cruz | 3 |
lindsey91 | Ted Cruz | 3 |
ckruger | Ted Cruz | 5 |
Cora | Ted Cruz | 5 |
cdob63 | Ted Cruz | 9 |
dowser | Ted Cruz | 11 |
ravel | Ted Cruz | 20 |
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch | Best answer 3/7/16 | Prior answer 3/5/16 |
---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 74 | 85 |
John Kasich | 0 | 4 |
Marco Rubio | 21 | 8 |
Ted Cruz | 5 | 3 |