# Newly refined clusters

I could try to establish which questions are predictive of others empirically, but we have too small a sample space, and it’s not clear how to establish that knowing the answer in one question is predictive of another question without being first able to characterize each question.  That is, there are no features to distinguish which give you a handle on the genetic makeup of a question. So let’s do a category assignment by hand, and stick our finger in the air to guess which questions should be predictive of others.

In making category assignments we are manually doing a principal component analysis.  So for example if I am looking at an Iran Politics question, do I pick a Politics expert first who knows Iran or an Iran expert who knows politics?

My first value judgment: Group by Country/Region and then by Concern.

Second, how specific should we be in picking our experts?  What if it’s a question about Iran and China?  Do I pick an Iran expert or a China expert?  Are there any similar questions?  What if there are no prior similar questions to an open question?  Worse, what if there are no subsequent similar questions to a closed question?  Do I lose my experts in those cases?

My second value judgment: Play it by ear.

So let’s play it by ear.  Without going through all the iterations I made in coming up with this list, here is my Assembly of Experts.  This consists of:

• Cluster
• Prior closed questions
• Current open questions
• For each open question, who is the most accurate forecaster who was in every prior closed question in the cluster.

So this is done, see below.

NOTE: After some tinkering, my new rules for aggregate forecasting are:

• Define the clusters so that there is at least one closed question in the cluster (cheating a little bit, but in the end, the clusters I defined seem natural.)
• Find the best 12 forecasters who participated in all open and closed questions in the cluster.
• Take the average of their forecasts on the open questions, and scale up so the results add to 100.

### Africa

#### Closed: 1

##### Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Amama Mbabazi No
Kizza Besigye No
None of the above No
Yoweri Museveni Yes

# Forecasters: 223

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.503043 Clairvoyance
2 -0.503043 jlodge01
3 -0.502808 einsteinjs
4 -0.502691 Modog814
5 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
6 -0.502408 cdob63
7 -0.502319 GeneH
8 -0.501905 redacted
9 -0.500808 Scooozai
10 -0.499574 clinton
11 -0.499188 chackpal
12 -0.497932 paul_the_octopus

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.502808 einsteinjs
2 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.502408 cdob63
4 -0.500808 Scooozai
5 -0.499574 clinton
6 -0.499188 chackpal
7 -0.496870 000
8 -0.496070 Sneaky_Pete531
9 -0.493732 petth
10 -0.468332 dkc
11 -0.434077 AlexisTocqueville
12 -0.433505 Sjens

#### Open: 3

##### How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
einsteinjs Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
clinton Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
dkc Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 1
chackpal Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 3
cdob63 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 10
AlexisTocqueville Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 15
Sneaky_Pete531 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 30
Scooozai Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 33
Spandrelbarca Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 34
petth Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 35
petth Less than 10,000 50
Scooozai Less than 10,000 55
Sneaky_Pete531 Less than 10,000 60
Spandrelbarca Less than 10,000 66
AlexisTocqueville Less than 10,000 85
cdob63 Less than 10,000 89
chackpal Less than 10,000 96
dkc Less than 10,000 99
Sjens Less than 10,000 100
einsteinjs Less than 10,000 100
clinton Less than 10,000 100
Sjens More than 15,000 0
AlexisTocqueville More than 15,000 0
dkc More than 15,000 0
einsteinjs More than 15,000 0
clinton More than 15,000 0
Spandrelbarca More than 15,000 0
chackpal More than 15,000 1
cdob63 More than 15,000 1
Sneaky_Pete531 More than 15,000 10
Scooozai More than 15,000 12
petth More than 15,000 15
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 15 15
Less than 10,000 82 82
More than 15,000 4 3
##### Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 21
cdob63 Yes 27
einsteinjs Yes 38
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 43
chackpal Yes 50
clinton Yes 52
AlexisTocqueville Yes 55
petth Yes 60
Spandrelbarca Yes 65
Scooozai Yes 85
dkc Yes 90
Yes 53 53
##### Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 1
dkc Yes 3
AlexisTocqueville Yes 5
clinton Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 7
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 10
chackpal Yes 13
einsteinjs Yes 14
Scooozai Yes 35
petth Yes 50
Spandrelbarca Yes 75
Yes 20 20

### Asia

#### Closed: 1

##### How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Majority Yes
Not a plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.972678 WangShuo
3 -0.855420 geoseattleite
4 -0.708725 Van der MEI
5 -0.541507 KateWestmoreland
6 -0.519885 A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams
7 -0.500404 lsgold7
8 -0.493038 TVANKSTA
9 -0.479074 xieweisen
10 -0.460404 dr.cankraut
11 -0.460065 Shahram33
12 -0.365233 teresalam

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.288985 Jean-Pierre
3 -0.264130 cdob63
4 -0.257545 000
5 -0.257445 ravel
6 -0.232613 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.220289 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.209220 malcmur
9 -0.199880 mparrault
10 -0.193285 boz
11 -0.145470 sh517
12 -0.070631 kormac

#### Open: 3

##### Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
ravel Yes 71
malcmur Yes 80
kormac Yes 80
boz Yes 85
Spandrelbarca Yes 89
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
mparrault Yes 95
cdob63 Yes 99
sh517 Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 87 87
##### Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
cdob63 Yes 9
malcmur Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 15
mparrault Yes 18
boz Yes 19
Jean-Pierre Yes 22
sh517 Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 25 25
##### Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
sh517 Grace Poe 0
slobodan Grace Poe 0
cdob63 Grace Poe 2
ravel Grace Poe 9
malcmur Grace Poe 20
boz Grace Poe 22
Jean-Pierre Grace Poe 30
mparrault Grace Poe 30
Spandrelbarca Grace Poe 35
kormac Grace Poe 40
patrickmeehan5 Grace Poe 49
slobodan Jejomar Binay 11
ravel Jejomar Binay 11
Jean-Pierre Jejomar Binay 30
kormac Jejomar Binay 30
Spandrelbarca Jejomar Binay 35
mparrault Jejomar Binay 35
boz Jejomar Binay 37
patrickmeehan5 Jejomar Binay 51
malcmur Jejomar Binay 60
cdob63 Jejomar Binay 66
sh517 Jejomar Binay 100
sh517 Mar Roxas 0
malcmur Mar Roxas 0
slobodan Mar Roxas 0
ravel Mar Roxas 0
patrickmeehan5 Mar Roxas 0
Spandrelbarca Mar Roxas 5
mparrault Mar Roxas 7
cdob63 Mar Roxas 8
Jean-Pierre Mar Roxas 10
boz Mar Roxas 13
kormac Mar Roxas 20
sh517 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
malcmur Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Jean-Pierre Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
slobodan Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
kormac Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
ravel Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
cdob63 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
patrickmeehan5 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Spandrelbarca Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
mparrault Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
boz Miriam Defensor-Santiago 2
sh517 None of the above 0
malcmur None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
slobodan None of the above 0
kormac None of the above 0
ravel None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
mparrault None of the above 1
boz None of the above 2
Spandrelbarca None of the above 5
sh517 Rodrigo Duterte 0
patrickmeehan5 Rodrigo Duterte 0
kormac Rodrigo Duterte 10
malcmur Rodrigo Duterte 20
Spandrelbarca Rodrigo Duterte 20
boz Rodrigo Duterte 24
cdob63 Rodrigo Duterte 24
mparrault Rodrigo Duterte 26
Jean-Pierre Rodrigo Duterte 30
ravel Rodrigo Duterte 80
slobodan Rodrigo Duterte 89
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Grace Poe 22 22
Jejomar Binay 42 42
Mar Roxas 6 6
Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0 0
None of the above 1 1
Rodrigo Duterte 29 29

### Capital controls

#### Closed: 10

##### Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 55

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.760930 mc77
2 -0.735999 brazilianwitchcraft
3 -0.680486 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -0.621344 fchoe
5 -0.612430 Jamison
6 -0.512430 pb41
7 -0.475930 Falconer
8 -0.471430 afoyfs
9 -0.442875 banda311
10 -0.420097 Mikatec
11 -0.403430 Khalid
12 -0.402097 bconlee
##### Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 175

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.284685 Peter Katzenfisch
2 -0.281174 tumbleweed
3 -0.278442 Rebel ran riot
4 -0.274153 974david
5 -0.259251 gust
6 -0.249651 Anneinak
7 -0.244319 Agent0090
8 -0.241672 clinton
9 -0.240093 darius.hinton
10 -0.237868 donmars
11 -0.232025 Randy
##### Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

# Forecasters: 94

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.272006 Paul Theron
2 -0.261711 jeremylichtman
3 -0.257041 Dwight Smith
4 -0.255736 PinyonCyn
5 -0.255723 llanchav
6 -0.255463 000
7 -0.253607 Asteras
8 -0.251375 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.249679 Falconer
11 -0.249350 Manfred
12 -0.247481 slobodan
##### Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.217195 Reynard
2 -0.210510 PinyonCyn
3 -0.210313 Falconer
4 -0.208338 bmiller
5 -0.203094 000
6 -0.197395 Darren
7 -0.195541 Oracle
8 -0.192805 rjuarbe
9 -0.192805 llanchav
10 -0.192805 bill l
11 -0.192421 Dwight Smith
##### Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

# Forecasters: 579

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.455791 eightball
2 -0.452291 Bob Woods
3 -0.450841 briannbarbour
4 -0.450595 Chiyouen
5 -0.445891 harshabn
6 -0.445891 hn7815
7 -0.445597 patrickmeehan5
8 -0.443119 nc.ch
9 -0.443119 Picasso1387
10 -0.438247 Falconer
11 -0.431191 Ron
12 -0.431191 dyco
##### Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

# Forecasters: 112

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.421854 GP Jim
2 -0.416593 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.411894 lookitsKB
4 -0.406159 donmars
5 -0.402262 gearhart5k
6 -0.400807 iajski
7 -0.397209 Doina
8 -0.396262 ambidextrous
9 -0.382315 jnord
10 -0.377525 davecrosby
11 -0.377525 thalt123
12 -0.377525 Garyland
##### Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

# Forecasters: 127

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.528685 Manfred
2 -0.519695 PetaBajt
3 -0.500274 drbooze
5 -0.495485 LisinHvost
6 -0.495485 CRaazi
7 -0.470906 Rote
8 -0.465380 Somchai A
10 -0.438531 GeneH
11 -0.429853 fightin bronco
12 -0.423695 Minnesota71
##### Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 101

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.082346 Anneinak
2 -0.082346 DariusX
3 -0.082346 Raisinville
4 -0.082346 Spandrelbarca
5 -0.082346 ckruger
6 -0.082346 redacted
7 -0.082346 Gleb_Kabanov
8 -0.082346 luzkannon
9 -0.082346 rockytop00
10 -0.082346 kormac
11 -0.082346 CalMotoMal
12 -0.082346 Free-thinker
##### Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Yes
Someone else from Europe No
Someone from outside Europe No

# Forecasters: 277

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.678659 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.678659 RedHarris
3 -0.670050 einsteinjs
4 -0.668659 Travist
5 -0.660536 kormac
6 -0.651727 AjzakN
7 -0.649459 PaulLynch
8 -0.648659 15
10 -0.642159 malcmur
11 -0.641236 dkc
12 -0.631955 Srzaua
##### How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Four No
None No
One No
Three No
Two Yes

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.988249 einsteinjs
2 -0.984349 z0k
3 -0.984182 gkamstra
4 -0.982182 Sjens
6 -0.980449 sonac36
7 -0.978982 Khalid
8 -0.978982 fifty-sixty
9 -0.978982 Overtheriver
10 -0.978982 searchlight
11 -0.978982 Persistanceofmemory
12 -0.974049 DariusX

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.458420 000
2 -2.282963 cdob63
3 -1.825863 ravel
4 -1.684331 patrickmeehan5
5 -1.414834 kormac
6 -1.342902 mparrault

#### Open: 7

##### Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 15
ravel Yes 17
mparrault Yes 20
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Yes 32 32
##### Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 4
kormac Yes 5
ravel Yes 10
Yes 4 4
##### Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 4
mparrault Yes 8
patrickmeehan5 Yes 60
Yes 15 15
##### Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 19
kormac Yes 30
mparrault Yes 35
Yes 19 19
##### How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Above 75 0
ravel Above 75 11
mparrault Above 75 11
kormac Above 75 25
patrickmeehan5 Above 75 69
kormac Between 51 and 60, inclusive 3
ravel Between 51 and 60, inclusive 5
patrickmeehan5 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
mparrault Between 51 and 60, inclusive 21
cdob63 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
patrickmeehan5 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 20
mparrault Between 61 and 75, inclusive 60
kormac Between 61 and 75, inclusive 70
cdob63 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 75
ravel Between 61 and 75, inclusive 84
ravel In the top 50 0
cdob63 In the top 50 0
patrickmeehan5 In the top 50 1
kormac In the top 50 2
mparrault In the top 50 8
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Above 75 23 23
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 13 13
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 62 62
In the top 50 2 2
##### Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
ravel Yes 2
kormac Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
Yes 4 4
##### Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 68
ravel Yes 77
patrickmeehan5 Yes 80
kormac Yes 85
Yes 75 75

### China

#### Closed: 2

##### Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 148

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.183613 Easy Miles
2 -0.182941 Paul Theron
3 -0.179515 Spandrelbarca
4 -0.170171 PinyonCyn
5 -0.166687 000
6 -0.166441 Matt
7 -0.163613 Darren
8 -0.160171 Xu
9 -0.158833 dylanjones
10 -0.150826 Roosevelt
11 -0.146728 slobodan
12 -0.145987 hyperionok
##### Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

# Forecasters: 182

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.340406 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.335406 Lucky
3 -0.334716 redacted
5 -0.330305 ckruger
6 -0.323263 dkc
7 -0.319087 DMOzone
8 -0.313338 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.312933 slobodan
10 -0.294619 jkbick
11 -0.294059 sh517
12 -0.293331 000

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
2 -0.460018 000
3 -0.459661 slobodan
4 -0.426133 Jean-Pierre
6 -0.412462 Lucky
7 -0.410775 ckruger
8 -0.402072 klin
9 -0.389949 cmeinel
10 -0.362608 cdob63
11 -0.354234 Buck Clemons
12 -0.339882 mparrault

#### Open: 3

##### Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel Yes 1
ckruger Yes 5
Buck Clemons Yes 10
klin Yes 12
Jean-Pierre Yes 21
mparrault Yes 40
cdob63 Yes 59
Lucky Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 39 39
##### Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Lucky Yes 1
ckruger Yes 3
klin Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 8
Buck Clemons Yes 10
Jean-Pierre Yes 14
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 17 17
##### Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel No 47
klin No 60
Jean-Pierre No 60
Lucky No 70
Buck Clemons No 85
mparrault No 85
cdob63 No 97
ckruger No 99
slobodan No 100
Buck Clemons Yes, with both 0
ckruger Yes, with both 0
cmeinel Yes, with both 0
slobodan Yes, with both 0
cdob63 Yes, with both 0
Lucky Yes, with both 0
mparrault Yes, with both 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, with both 3
klin Yes, with both 25
slobodan Yes, with only Iran 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Iran 0
ckruger Yes, with only Iran 1
madre Yes, with only Iran 1
cdob63 Yes, with only Iran 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Iran 10
mparrault Yes, with only Iran 10
klin Yes, with only Iran 15
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Iran 23
Lucky Yes, with only Iran 30
cmeinel Yes, with only Iran 53
klin Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
ckruger Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cmeinel Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
slobodan Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cdob63 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
Lucky Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
madre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
mparrault Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 14
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
No 82 82
Yes, with both 3 3
Yes, with only Iran 13 13
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 2 2

### EU

#### Closed: 2

##### Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 89

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.157904 Falconer
2 -0.151375 cdob63
3 -0.151312 clinton
4 -0.148035 mike97mike
5 -0.145732 malcmur
6 -0.145535 scholarandcat
7 -0.145353 000
8 -0.144310 patrickmeehan5
10 -0.139216 Lux
11 -0.139016 Hammer Time
12 -0.137692 mparrault
##### Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

# Forecasters: 429

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.580726 slobodan
2 -0.575320 drouq_
3 -0.547018 duth_forever
4 -0.545726 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.535726 marcbgoldberg
6 -0.530987 mayflower
7 -0.514668 searchlight
8 -0.511393 monique
9 -0.500726 CedricJ
10 -0.497226 Augustinas
11 -0.496351 scurcuru
12 -0.492341 jfm293c

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.690036 patrickmeehan5
2 -0.530723 Delorean
3 -0.487162 cdob63
4 -0.298233 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.295004 Rene
6 -0.285294 000
7 -0.262162 RCScheffers
8 -0.195666 Anneinak
9 -0.098943 Sneaky_Pete531

#### Open: 3

##### Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers Both 0
Sneaky_Pete531 Both 0
Jean-Pierre Both 0
Delorean Both 0
Anneinak Both 0
Rene Both 0
cdob63 Both 0
patrickmeehan5 Both 80
patrickmeehan5 Neither 5
Sneaky_Pete531 Neither 84
Jean-Pierre Neither 94
RCScheffers Neither 95
Rene Neither 95
cdob63 Neither 99
Delorean Neither 100
Anneinak Neither 100
RCScheffers Podemos 0
Delorean Podemos 0
Anneinak Podemos 0
Rene Podemos 0
cdob63 Podemos 0
Jean-Pierre Podemos 2
patrickmeehan5 Podemos 10
Sneaky_Pete531 Podemos 13
Both 10 10
Neither 84 84
Podemos 3 3
##### Who will be the next mayor of London?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers None of the above 0
Sneaky_Pete531 None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
Delorean None of the above 0
Anneinak None of the above 0
Rene None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 Zac Goldsmith 1
cdob63 Zac Goldsmith 6
Delorean Zac Goldsmith 9
RCScheffers Zac Goldsmith 22
Rene Zac Goldsmith 22
Sneaky_Pete531 Zac Goldsmith 25
Jean-Pierre Zac Goldsmith 25
Anneinak Zac Goldsmith 25
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
None of the above 0 0
Zac Goldsmith 17 17
##### Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 55
RCScheffers Yes 58
Rene Yes 58
Anneinak Yes 66
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 69
cdob63 Yes 80
Delorean Yes 95
patrickmeehan5 Yes 95
Yes 72 72

### Entertainment

#### Closed: 4

##### Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?

# Forecasters: 145

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.623068 RichStenberg
2 -0.587479 ben
3 -0.583794 jeremylichtman
4 -0.534189 Khalid
5 -0.517468 yankeeracer
6 -0.504694 Socrates
7 -0.498268 SmallTown Gal
8 -0.482305 ESR
9 -0.478389 patrickmeehan5
10 -0.470505 KokaV992
11 -0.468663 Slackline
##### Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 238

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.215373 piodzie
2 -0.215373 BestGuess
3 -0.215052 heinlager
4 -0.210786 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.210590 hyperionok
6 -0.210590 List9845
7 -0.210419 XanX
8 -0.210419 selkhet7
9 -0.210419 raullegaz
10 -0.210419 Predrag
11 -0.205878 Themistokles
12 -0.205878 JH_Bernard
##### Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser No
Laser Maze Jr. No
Makey Makey Classic No
Meccanoid G15 Yes
MiPosaur No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator No
i-loom No

# Forecasters: 160

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.460378 vkent
2 -1.359424 renatomt
3 -1.242494 albender
4 -1.153113 Graham88
5 -0.971340 janeanne
6 -0.961103 fifty-sixty
7 -0.886779 calebw
8 -0.873897 Magloghan
9 -0.870655 praedico
10 -0.870378 Minsky
11 -0.862222 Dima K
12 -0.846671 Dilamarter
##### Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Bridge of Spies No
Brooklyn No
Room No
Spotlight Yes
The Big Short No
The Martian No
The Revenant No

# Forecasters: 402

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.032620 slobodan
2 -1.634741 Mr.Macbeth
3 -1.507166 Potter
4 -1.496863 pablogabriels
5 -1.488378 acerock6
6 -1.444981 craigellan
7 -1.416951 Dima K
8 -1.399396 Costusinsights
9 -1.218123 dylbyl25
10 -1.157466 Scabe
11 -1.124422 Claudio
12 -1.109287 kbaker

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.209046 GJDrew
2 -1.595470 mparrault
3 -1.541718 patrickmeehan5
4 -1.505138 000
5 -1.391106 yaifuz26
6 -1.375077 cdob63
7 -1.023185 ravel
8 -0.244440 petth

#### Open: 6

##### Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
GJDrew Yes 11
petth Yes 25
yaifuz26 Yes 55
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Yes 29 29
##### Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth All of the above will survive season 6 0
patrickmeehan5 All of the above will survive season 6 0
yaifuz26 All of the above will survive season 6 25
GJDrew All of the above will survive season 6 25
cdob63 All of the above will survive season 6 42
mparrault All of the above will survive season 6 50
ravel All of the above will survive season 6 52
ravel Carl 0
patrickmeehan5 Carl 0
GJDrew Carl 5
mparrault Carl 5
cdob63 Carl 14
yaifuz26 Carl 25
petth Carl 50
patrickmeehan5 Carol 0
yaifuz26 Carol 15
GJDrew Carol 18
mparrault Carol 18
ravel Carol 22
cdob63 Carol 34
petth Carol 50
petth Daryl 0
patrickmeehan5 Daryl 0
cdob63 Daryl 6
mparrault Daryl 7
yaifuz26 Daryl 20
ravel Daryl 22
GJDrew Daryl 26
yaifuz26 Glenn 0
petth Glenn 0
cdob63 Glenn 3
ravel Glenn 4
mparrault Glenn 20
GJDrew Glenn 26
patrickmeehan5 Glenn 99
petth Rick 0
GJDrew Rick 0
ravel Rick 0
mparrault Rick 0
cdob63 Rick 1
patrickmeehan5 Rick 1
yaifuz26 Rick 15
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
All of the above will survive season 6 28 28
Carl 14 14
Carol 22 22
Daryl 12 12
Glenn 22 22
Rick 2 2
##### Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 1
patrickmeehan5 Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
GJDrew Yes 35
yaifuz26 Yes 45
petth Yes 50
Yes 21 21
##### Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 0
petth Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
yaifuz26 Yes 65
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Yes 24 24
##### Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 11
GJDrew Yes 13
yaifuz26 Yes 15
mparrault Yes 15
petth Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
Yes 27 27
##### Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 25
mparrault Yes 35
ravel Yes 49
cdob63 Yes 68
yaifuz26 Yes 85
petth Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Yes 66 66

### Environment

#### Closed: 1

##### Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

# Forecasters: 185

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 DariusX
2 -0.117004 000
3 -0.117004 Delorean
4 -0.117004 Clairvoyance
6 -0.117004 tom.prigg
7 -0.117004 AlexisTocqueville
8 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
9 -0.116822 dkc
10 -0.116804 clinton
11 -0.116804 ravel
12 -0.116804 guesser

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 000
2 -0.117004 Delorean
4 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
5 -0.116804 clinton
6 -0.116804 ravel
7 -0.115413 Khalid
8 -0.115413 REGallahue
9 -0.115413 argon1
10 -0.115076 morrell
11 -0.114458 cdob63
12 -0.106795 Amir

#### Open: 2

##### Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 23
Amir Yes 65
REGallahue Yes 72
Khalid Yes 75
morrell Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 84
Gfrizzi Yes 85
Delorean Yes 85
clinton Yes 89
argon1 Yes 90
Yes 74 74
##### Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
argon1 Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
Gfrizzi Yes 2
REGallahue Yes 3
Delorean Yes 4
cdob63 Yes 4
morrell Yes 5
Amir Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
Khalid Yes 10
Yes 4 4

### Iran

#### Closed: 9

##### Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

# Forecasters: 201

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.448675 Bill
2 -0.427661 alterego
3 -0.427661 Socrates
4 -0.427661 Gregory
5 -0.423900 gust
6 -0.416900 Ron
7 -0.414039 thomas.r
8 -0.410052 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.408277 Delorean
10 -0.396248 Jay R
11 -0.389146 jatreit
12 -0.388274 Poorforecaster
##### Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
No Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand No

# Forecasters: 86

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.814923 Falconer
2 -0.814547 GeneH
3 -0.804947 Wagle
4 -0.785418 johneyhb
5 -0.726712 einsteinjs
6 -0.726523 dms
7 -0.684241 Manfred
8 -0.663959 wlmsears
9 -0.651253 Raisinville
10 -0.642006 Dwight Smith
11 -0.574429 ESR
12 -0.559912 GJDrew
##### Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

# Forecasters: 69

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.125324 000
2 -0.125324 ravel
3 -0.125006 cdob63
4 -0.120986 donmars
5 -0.120324 jnord
6 -0.119806 UnderwaterPutin
7 -0.119806 Khalid
8 -0.117048 jatreit
9 -0.115524 gust
10 -0.111875 Anneinak
11 -0.108772 malcmur
12 -0.107889 GP Jim
##### Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 37

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.566842 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.528271 Manfred
3 -0.521585 ESR
4 -0.488671 usajvbueno
5 -0.478985 donmars
6 -0.478985 jnord
7 -0.456957 Mroochyslav
8 -0.434699 clinton
9 -0.428985 Shahar
10 -0.428985 ZEUS
12 -0.410414 Khalid
##### Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

# Forecasters: 122

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.188506 Agent0090
2 -0.188201 000
3 -0.185291 TVANKSTA
4 -0.185191 Khalid
5 -0.184458 jnord
6 -0.182363 cdob63
7 -0.180791 cmeinel
8 -0.180529 usajvbueno
9 -0.180529 GP Jim
10 -0.177358 sluggoman
11 -0.177358 JP
##### Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

# Forecasters: 294

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.276187 slobodan
2 -0.275987 Asia
3 -0.275387 twodox
4 -0.267238 clinton
5 -0.266561 Rosario
6 -0.266057 mayflower
8 -0.262787 ckruger
9 -0.262169 GoodieGoodie
10 -0.261974 JHooson
11 -0.261935 Manfred
12 -0.260767 cdob63
##### When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Before 1 March 2016 Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive No
Not before 1 July 2016 No

# Forecasters: 146

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.958118 fifty-sixty
2 -1.925718 azharala
3 -1.851830 Wagle
4 -1.780945 Travist
5 -1.737334 Cansee
6 -1.645718 Shashank
7 -1.527385 Pachi
8 -1.474052 jsheth
9 -1.411223 john27
10 -1.395718 travelershope
11 -1.357334 jordanstone01
12 -1.339800 fatalis
##### Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

# Forecasters: 121

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.484838 slobodan
2 -0.484638 Kumar_Shah
3 -0.479838 Angturil
4 -0.479838 Ellieb
5 -0.475771 kormac
6 -0.473238 fron24
7 -0.464838 dcrosby51
10 -0.439838 Peyman2030
12 -0.427704 arash
##### Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

# Forecasters: 200

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.193305 Falconer
2 -0.193064 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.191790 redacted
4 -0.189949 KSpain
5 -0.189321 cdob63
6 -0.188305 Travist
7 -0.188305 fron24
8 -0.188305 JohnH
9 -0.188305 theprof
10 -0.186455 phdork
11 -0.186258 Vicrums
12 -0.183146 Liam

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.776117 mparrault
2 -1.654682 Khalid
3 -1.526950 cdob63
4 -1.473965 Jean-Pierre
5 -1.439449 slobodan
6 -1.391127 000
7 -1.158899 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.977923 petth
9 -0.864946 malcmur
10 -0.750579 ravel

#### Open: 6

##### Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
ravel Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 11
Yes 1 1
##### Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 25
petth Yes 50
ravel Yes 67
Spandrelbarca Yes 85
Jean-Pierre Yes 99
cdob63 Yes 99
malcmur Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Khalid Yes 100
Yes 81 81
##### Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 3
Khalid Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
ravel Yes 11
petth Yes 35
Yes 7 7
##### Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Khalid No 10
petth No 45
Spandrelbarca No 50
cdob63 No 66
Jean-Pierre No 80
mparrault No 80
malcmur No 90
slobodan No 95
ravel No 98
No 68 68
##### Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 4
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
petth Yes 25
malcmur Yes 30
ravel Yes 31
mparrault Yes 36
Khalid Yes 55
Jean-Pierre Yes 67
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 40 40
##### Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
mparrault Yes 1
malcmur Yes 5
ravel Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 9
petth Yes 55
Yes 8 8

### Latin America

#### Closed: 2

##### Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Daniel Scioli No
Mauricio Macri Yes
Sergio Massa No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.130566 Markmsl
3 -1.016340 achatkin
4 -1.012129 ogross
5 -0.916866 fleppy
6 -0.802839 mybaby4929
7 -0.802524 DSchultz
8 -0.775564 Dido
9 -0.745997 lindsey
10 -0.733760 Julius
11 -0.727012 danbazurto
12 -0.716208 974david
##### Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

# Forecasters: 138

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.604602 Chrisdo
2 -0.592102 DavidHume1776
3 -0.587352 Alex11
4 -0.579602 Mdmalseed
5 -0.576852 jkbick
6 -0.572102 starbright
7 -0.567102 geoseattleite
8 -0.554602 saesousa
9 -0.550227 drofter
10 -0.537102 malaquias
11 -0.529602 k13rkeg44rd
12 -0.525602 Jean-Pierre

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.470481 ogross
3 -1.254296 jkbick
4 -1.132342 Dima K
5 -0.972452 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.925410 Davidoff400
7 -0.869938 boz
8 -0.816969 Jean-Pierre
10 -0.746782 PianoPicasso
11 -0.716270 yaifuz26
12 -0.704757 christianmaas

#### Open: 2

##### Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
jkbick Yes 1
Dima K Yes 1
PianoPicasso Yes 4
christianmaas Yes 6
boz Yes 6
yaifuz26 Yes 15
ogross Yes 30
Davidoff400 Yes 35
patrickmeehan5 Yes 97
Yes 17 17
##### Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 1
Davidoff400 Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
ogross Yes 20
Dima K Yes 20
boz Yes 42
PianoPicasso Yes 45
jkbick Yes 50
patrickmeehan5 Yes 55
yaifuz26 Yes 65
christianmaas Yes 65
Yes 32 32

### Markets

#### Closed: 4

##### What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
6.40 or more Yes
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive No
Less than 6.30 No
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 No

# Forecasters: 340

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.238701 Rebel ran riot
2 -1.213703 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.063215 brightling
4 -1.009150 Bill
5 -0.995167 Investmentitos
6 -0.931671 Darren
7 -0.921602 tfolkes
8 -0.893866 Doina
9 -0.873036 Mroochyslav
10 -0.818662 JJMLP
11 -0.810939 dkandersen
12 -0.810939 petergreen
##### What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Between \$34.00 and \$40.00 per barrel, inclusive Yes
Less than \$34.00 per barrel No
More than \$40.00 per barrel No

# Forecasters: 636

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.000374 hoopengarners
2 -0.991402 kdcnett
3 -0.987197 schliemann
4 -0.958145 achatkin
5 -0.928879 lookitsKB
6 -0.892711 Diplo
7 -0.880094 Jamison
8 -0.879814 Araasatrian
9 -0.869518 domesticenginerd
10 -0.852150 JHooson
11 -0.843645 Jfoster
12 -0.834487 laz
##### Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Anthony Noto No
Jack Dorsey Yes
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 83

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.086151 Raisinville
2 -0.828338 clinton
3 -0.768231 malcmur
4 -0.754898 wlmsears
5 -0.597665 GJDrew
6 -0.589038 000
7 -0.543565 jumblies
8 -0.504658 KristiG
9 -0.503861 slobodan
10 -0.501565 Ziggysak
11 -0.492231 PlanetPanic
12 -0.474798 cdob63
##### Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.739582 Crown
2 -0.719789 asolismon
3 -0.711524 Rettic, MBA
4 -0.706855 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
5 -0.694582 bet10
6 -0.662792 Kyle_protho
7 -0.661111 Liza
8 -0.645409 mstlau
9 -0.637144 Mdmalseed
10 -0.637144 misti.graziani@gmail.com
11 -0.633218 Hector N
12 -0.633218 bodipb

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Markets

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.712499 patrickmeehan5
2 -1.444045 malcmur
3 -1.366373 slobodan
4 -1.216705 000
5 -1.178497 clinton
6 -1.029009 mparrault
8 -0.875090 ravel
9 -0.765186 cdob63
10 -0.589390 jeremylichtman
11 -0.510196 praedico

#### Open: 4

##### What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
patrickmeehan5 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
clinton Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 28
cdob63 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 31
malcmur Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 35
praedico Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 40
mparrault Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 51
ravel Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 72
dada Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 75
jeremylichtman Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 80
jeremylichtman Less than 125,000 0
praedico Less than 125,000 0
malcmur Less than 125,000 0
slobodan Less than 125,000 0
cdob63 Less than 125,000 0
clinton Less than 125,000 0
mparrault Less than 125,000 3
ravel Less than 125,000 7
patrickmeehan5 Less than 125,000 100
patrickmeehan5 More than 250,000 0
jeremylichtman More than 250,000 20
ravel More than 250,000 21
mparrault More than 250,000 46
praedico More than 250,000 60
malcmur More than 250,000 65
cdob63 More than 250,000 69
clinton More than 250,000 72
slobodan More than 250,000 100
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 41 41
Less than 125,000 11 11
More than 250,000 48 48
##### Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
clinton Yes 0
jeremylichtman Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
malcmur Yes 2
cdob63 Yes 2
mparrault Yes 4
praedico Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 21 21
##### Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
jeremylichtman Yes 0
praedico Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
ravel Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 12 12
##### Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below \$20.00 before 1 May 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
jeremylichtman Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 2
praedico Yes 5
mparrault Yes 8
malcmur Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
ravel Yes 15
Yes 5 5

### Middle East

#### Closed: 1

##### How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
A majority Yes
A plurality No
Not a plurality No

# Forecasters: 154

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.293748 okhope18
2 -1.234406 dcdiamond
3 -1.013102 KSpain
4 -0.965664 Raisinville
5 -0.944200 KaiserSoze
7 -0.832296 Kleto
8 -0.831651 markusbehrend
9 -0.822941 Lucky
10 -0.819554 Costarican
11 -0.819554 kksartorius
12 -0.817819 Stewart Edwards

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Middle East

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
2 -0.741090 Amir
3 -0.592619 kormac
4 -0.503751 nls
5 -0.172201 Heffalump
6 -0.164852 Spandrelbarca
7 -0.156167 Clairvoyance
8 -0.148723 000
9 -0.135981 mparrault
10 -0.132594 cmeinel
11 -0.099533 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.096062 slobodan

#### Open: 5

##### Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre No 90
Heffalump No 90
cmeinel No 94
kormac No 95
Amir No 97
nls No 98
mparrault No 98
Spandrelbarca No 99
Clairvoyance No 100
slobodan No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 30
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 3
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 3
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 30
admiralporky Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
nls Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
cmeinel Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
slobodan Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
kormac Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
mparrault Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Amir Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Heffalump Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 1
nls Yes, Someone else 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Someone else 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Someone else 0
cmeinel Yes, Someone else 0
slobodan Yes, Someone else 0
kormac Yes, Someone else 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Someone else 0
mparrault Yes, Someone else 0
Amir Yes, Someone else 0
Heffalump Yes, Someone else 1
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
No 91 91
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5 5
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4 4
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0 0
Yes, Someone else 0 0
##### Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Amir Yes 0
Clairvoyance Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 7
mparrault Yes 7
nls Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
Heffalump Yes 13
Spandrelbarca Yes 13
Yes 8 8
##### Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan No 0
nls No 52
Heffalump No 68
Clairvoyance No 80
kormac No 80
mparrault No 85
Jean-Pierre No 92
cmeinel No 95
Spandrelbarca No 95
Amir No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Amir Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
nls Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 2
mparrault Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 2
Heffalump Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 3
kormac Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5
admiralporky Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 15
slobodan Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 100
slobodan Yes, only Article 4 0
Amir Yes, only Article 4 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 4 5
cmeinel Yes, only Article 4 5
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 4 5
kormac Yes, only Article 4 10
mparrault Yes, only Article 4 11
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 4 20
Heffalump Yes, only Article 4 27
nls Yes, only Article 4 40
admiralporky Yes, only Article 4 80
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, only Article 5 0
slobodan Yes, only Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 5 0
Amir Yes, only Article 5 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 5 2
Heffalump Yes, only Article 5 2
mparrault Yes, only Article 5 2
admiralporky Yes, only Article 5 5
kormac Yes, only Article 5 5
nls Yes, only Article 5 6
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
No 68 68
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 12 12
Yes, only Article 4 18 18
Yes, only Article 5 2 2
##### Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Clairvoyance Yes 0
cmeinel Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 7
nls Yes 10
mparrault Yes 10
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
kormac Yes 30
Heffalump Yes 60
Amir Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 35 35
##### Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 3
cmeinel Yes 20
mparrault Yes 45
Clairvoyance Yes 50
Heffalump Yes 50
Amir Yes 51
nls Yes 55
kormac Yes 75
Spandrelbarca Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 57 57

### North America

#### Closed: 2

##### Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Conservative No
Liberal Yes
New Democratic Party No
Other No

# Forecasters: 135

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.171706 Falconer
2 -1.102249 NHUNGUYEN
3 -0.847992 Raisinville
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.681578 GJDrew
6 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
7 -0.564292 Rote
8 -0.540049 einsteinjs
9 -0.524206 Khalid
10 -0.515710 p_odo
11 -0.515648 khoshea
12 -0.492153 patrickmeehan5
##### Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.150136 Rebel ran riot
2 -0.150136 Praxis
3 -0.150136 Jamison
4 -0.149936 flc79
5 -0.149780 mayflower
6 -0.147305 000
7 -0.147271 Dwight Smith
8 -0.146936 moria
9 -0.145351 DoctorWho
10 -0.145136 ricofig
12 -0.144873 Falconer

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.316579 Falconer
2 -0.847992 Raisinville
3 -0.756784 GJDrew
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.627708 p_odo
6 -0.605262 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.589885 cdob63
8 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
9 -0.572298 Rote
10 -0.542590 einsteinjs
11 -0.537919 kbub
12 -0.515648 khoshea

### North Korea

#### Closed: 3

##### Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

# Forecasters: 260

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.594570 dowser
2 -0.588922 redacted
3 -0.577257 catmob
5 -0.570101 Diplo
6 -0.565070 Anneinak
7 -0.559343 Rote
8 -0.558945 rebeccams
9 -0.557351 974david
10 -0.555618 Rebel ran riot
11 -0.550788 Hammer Time
12 -0.548445 aaron
##### Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

# Forecasters: 196

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.535603 lsgold7
2 -0.531094 dowser
3 -0.515042 slobodan
4 -0.505919 rbertoni01
5 -0.505130 petth
6 -0.488024 azureskai
7 -0.465217 dukeglk
8 -0.465217 sandyr
9 -0.462761 MAA414
10 -0.455393 hyperionok
11 -0.449252 Lucky
12 -0.449252 maxmersinger
##### Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

# Forecasters: 100

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.180665 einsteinjs
2 -0.180665 slobodan
3 -0.180665 agent23421
4 -0.180465 redacted
5 -0.180313 jkbick
6 -0.180160 Sjens
7 -0.180065 scholarandcat
8 -0.179865 superfrog
9 -0.178722 austerity
10 -0.178046 Jean-Pierre
11 -0.177560 dowser
12 -0.177417 Rene

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North Korea

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.303224 dowser
2 -1.151355 slobodan
3 -1.097375 petth
4 -0.925000 lsgold7
5 -0.898515 Anneinak
6 -0.856419 clinton
7 -0.856025 austerity
8 -0.831951 cdob63
9 -0.785615 ravel
10 -0.761080 morrell
11 -0.711383 Sjens
12 -0.639944 einsteinjs

#### Open: 3

##### Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 18
Sjens Yes 20
lsgold7 Yes 20
petth Yes 25
clinton Yes 30
austerity Yes 70
morrell Yes 70
dowser Yes 85
ravel Yes 97
Anneinak Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
einsteinjs Yes 100
Yes 61 61
##### Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
lsgold7 Yes 0
Anneinak Yes 0
dowser Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Sjens Yes 1
clinton Yes 1
einsteinjs Yes 2
morrell Yes 4
ravel Yes 4
cdob63 Yes 12
austerity Yes 15
petth Yes 55
Yes 8 8
##### Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 18
lsgold7 Yes 20
petth Yes 25
ravel Yes 28
cdob63 Yes 47
dowser Yes 55
morrell Yes 75
Anneinak Yes 88
einsteinjs Yes 88
austerity Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
clinton Yes 100
Yes 62 62

### Russia

#### Closed: 4

##### Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?

# Forecasters: 43

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.752141 Wagle
2 -0.464329 jeremylichtman
3 -0.464329 mrcrea
4 -0.444566 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.413391 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.349279 Manfred
7 -0.309641 Jay R
8 -0.304954 vjp22
9 -0.298704 hyperionok
10 -0.297141 skepticalforecaster
11 -0.293516 Hideous Cheese Blunder
##### How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Majority Yes
Not a Plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 92

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.580368 Falconer
2 -1.164118 TVANKSTA
3 -1.097651 fleppy
4 -1.094109 fewchur
5 -1.051400 farmorit
6 -1.047451 put3000
8 -1.024900 klajoklis
9 -1.001400 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
10 -0.928796 tylerh
11 -0.917868 arnbold
12 -0.912963 gkiljan
##### Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 136

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.901566 slobodan
2 -0.892945 Falconer
3 -0.887849 redacted
4 -0.875704 KSpain
5 -0.832600 CR
6 -0.826825 Ioana
7 -0.814321 mike97mike
8 -0.801566 qsmithtx
9 -0.788118 Titan7160
10 -0.767945 broflovsky
11 -0.761452 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.751652 controllerzhu
##### Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

# Forecasters: 96

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.102675 Falconer
2 -0.102675 einsteinjs
3 -0.102675 000
4 -0.102675 Rather Witless Design
6 -0.102675 kormac
7 -0.102675 k13rkeg44rd
8 -0.102625 redacted
9 -0.102598 clinton
10 -0.102556 scholarandcat
11 -0.102506 cdob63
12 -0.102475 Raisinville

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Russia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.466399 malcmur
2 -1.144176 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.052872 slobodan
4 -0.330628 petth
5 -0.213984 000
6 -0.212760 cdob63
7 -0.101606 dominich
8 -0.072167 Spandrelbarca
9 -0.026780 mparrault

#### Open: 9

##### How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan 0 0
patrickmeehan5 0 0
petth 0 20
Spandrelbarca 0 55
dominich 0 70
malcmur 0 75
cdob63 0 77
mparrault 0 85
petth All 0
dominich All 0
slobodan All 0
cdob63 All 0
patrickmeehan5 All 0
Spandrelbarca All 0
malcmur All 5
mparrault All 6
slobodan Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
patrickmeehan5 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
mparrault Between 1 and 5, inclusive 7
malcmur Between 1 and 5, inclusive 15
cdob63 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 21
dominich Between 1 and 5, inclusive 30
Spandrelbarca Between 1 and 5, inclusive 40
petth Between 1 and 5, inclusive 50
dominich More than five, but less than all 0
cdob63 More than five, but less than all 2
mparrault More than five, but less than all 2
malcmur More than five, but less than all 5
Spandrelbarca More than five, but less than all 5
petth More than five, but less than all 30
slobodan More than five, but less than all 100
patrickmeehan5 More than five, but less than all 100
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
0 48 49
All 1 1
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 20 20
More than five, but less than all 30 30
##### Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
malcmur Yes 3
mparrault Yes 8
dominich Yes 10
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
patrickmeehan5 Yes 33
petth Yes 40
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 26 26
##### Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
cdob63 Yes 24
Spandrelbarca Yes 25
dominich Yes 30
mparrault Yes 35
petth Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 40 40
##### Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 0
dominich Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
petth Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 23 23
##### Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 15
malcmur Yes 15
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
cdob63 Yes 31
mparrault Yes 35
dominich Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 90
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 45 45
##### Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
mparrault Yes 25
petth Yes 35
cdob63 Yes 39
dominich Yes 65
malcmur Yes 70
patrickmeehan5 Yes 85
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 53 53
##### Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 3
malcmur Yes 6
Spandrelbarca Yes 8
mparrault Yes 9
dominich Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 25
petth Yes 45
slobodan Yes 100
Yes 26 26
##### Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan No 0
petth No 55
Spandrelbarca No 75
patrickmeehan5 No 90
mparrault No 90
malcmur No 100
dominich No 100
cdob63 No 100
malcmur Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
slobodan Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
mparrault Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 3
petth Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 10
malcmur Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
mparrault Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 7
patrickmeehan5 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 25
petth Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 35
slobodan Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 100
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
No 76 76
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 2 2
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 22 22
##### How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
patrickmeehan5 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
dominich At least one-half but less than two-thirds 40
petth At least one-half but less than two-thirds 55
Spandrelbarca At least one-half but less than two-thirds 65
mparrault At least one-half but less than two-thirds 73
malcmur At least one-half but less than two-thirds 75
cdob63 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 96
patrickmeehan5 At least two-thirds of all seats 0
cdob63 At least two-thirds of all seats 3
malcmur At least two-thirds of all seats 5
mparrault At least two-thirds of all seats 20
petth At least two-thirds of all seats 25
Spandrelbarca At least two-thirds of all seats 35
dominich At least two-thirds of all seats 60
slobodan At least two-thirds of all seats 100
dominich Less than half 0
slobodan Less than half 0
Spandrelbarca Less than half 0
cdob63 Less than half 1
mparrault Less than half 7
petth Less than half 20
malcmur Less than half 20
patrickmeehan5 Less than half 100
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
At least one-half but less than two-thirds 50 51
At least two-thirds of all seats 31 31
Less than half 18 18

### Sports

#### Closed: 1

##### Who will win the World Series?
A team from the American League Yes
A team from the National League No

# Forecasters: 191

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.901973 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.884169 Mroochyslav
4 -0.875624 jeremylichtman
5 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.850351 sawyerwhip
7 -0.850351 BenP
8 -0.850351 joenb
9 -0.850351 ShotintheDark
10 -0.838176 cbrophy
11 -0.833805 Gor999
12 -0.820896 BestGuess

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Sports

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
3 -0.731624 Delorean
5 -0.411260 khoshea
6 -0.392714 yaifuz26
7 -0.375078 KSpain
8 -0.344351 ravel
9 -0.315791 000
10 -0.264533 Davidoff400
11 -0.237624 JP
12 -0.047805 kormac

#### Open: 2

##### Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Davidoff400 Yes 55
ravel Yes 93
yaifuz26 Yes 95
KSpain Yes 95
slobodan Yes 99
khoshea Yes 99
JP Yes 100
Delorean Yes 100
kormac Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Yes 94 94
##### Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
yaifuz26 Yes 15
ravel Yes 21
JP Yes 25
kormac Yes 40
KSpain Yes 50
patrickmeehan5 Yes 50
Davidoff400 Yes 55
Delorean Yes 60
khoshea Yes 75
Yes 39 39

### Syria

#### Closed: 3

##### Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

# Forecasters: 111

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.202808 Anneinak
2 -0.202808 cmeinel
3 -0.202808 Falconer
4 -0.202808 einsteinjs
5 -0.202808 September
6 -0.202808 clinton
7 -0.202808 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.202808 000
9 -0.202808 Hammer Time
10 -0.202808 dowser
11 -0.202808 Agent0090
##### As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
1 million or more Yes
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive No
Less than 560,000 No
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million No

# Forecasters: 328

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.495237 slobodan
2 -1.475237 thomas.r
3 -1.375237 Jamison
4 -1.272437 vasil
5 -1.257445 Cdrapp
6 -1.113237 jimmccue
7 -1.085793 Rhysbros
8 -1.062117 afoyfs
9 -0.998537 jeremylichtman
10 -0.974437 zwzhang
11 -0.906837 jimglynn
12 -0.882152 lydia.albanis
##### Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

# Forecasters: 586

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.077117 UnderwaterPutin
2 -0.077117 dominich
3 -0.077117 grossz18
4 -0.077117 Heffalump
5 -0.077117 cmeinel
6 -0.077117 Falconer
7 -0.077117 einsteinjs
8 -0.077117 Khalid
9 -0.077117 vernscot
10 -0.077117 Delorean
11 -0.077117 slobodan
12 -0.077117 Rebel ran riot

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Syria

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.598925 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.399234 000
3 -0.274495 ckruger
4 -0.258114 cdob63

#### Open: 6

##### Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 1
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 26
Yes 11 11
##### Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
ckruger Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 3
Yes 1 1
##### Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 66
cdob63 Yes 72
ckruger Yes 90
Yes 76 76
##### Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 8
cdob63 Yes 13
Yes 9 9
##### When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Before 13 March 2016 0
ckruger Before 13 March 2016 0
cdob63 Before 13 March 2016 1
ckruger Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
cdob63 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 9
Jean-Pierre Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 13
Jean-Pierre Not before 1 July 2016 87
cdob63 Not before 1 July 2016 90
ckruger Not before 1 July 2016 98
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Before 13 March 2016 0 0
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 8 8
Not before 1 July 2016 92 92
##### Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
ckruger Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 68
Yes 46 46

### US Presidential election

#### Closed: 8

##### Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

# Forecasters: 302

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.283507 donmars
2 -0.283342 einsteinjs
3 -0.282137 The Brown Recluse
4 -0.281471 Buffalo
5 -0.277822 Lucky
6 -0.277822 LeftCoastRightBrain
7 -0.277822 Swede
8 -0.277822 BestGuess
9 -0.277822 Atyler83
10 -0.272890 mmccaule
11 -0.272890 VagabondJim
12 -0.272890 usajvbueno
##### Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

# Forecasters: 420

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.282756 JeanP
2 -0.277756 Jonah B52
3 -0.275592 arnbold
4 -0.275035 redacted
5 -0.271562 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.267830 Asteras
7 -0.267830 Rebel ran riot
8 -0.267636 SteveBoothButterfield
9 -0.264815 Spandrelbarca
10 -0.264099 legant
11 -0.264099 JoeLakeBSJ2LC
12 -0.264099 WGlazer
##### Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

# Forecasters: 1765

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.500981 richtyge
2 -0.494507 hoopengarners
3 -0.494507 gmyu
4 -0.493134 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.490986 mayflower
6 -0.490986 Woodasch
7 -0.490986 legant
8 -0.490986 JRoy
9 -0.490986 Dougefresh
10 -0.489648 PowerQuilter
11 -0.488592 Hammer Time
12 -0.488592 scientifics
##### Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump No
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz Yes

# Forecasters: 1086

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.240460 maxharris
2 -2.944160 austerity
3 -2.853260 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -2.816960 moscow25
5 -2.794593 bdenison
6 -2.740827 sh517
7 -2.709160 mattdabrowski
8 -2.707493 jcurry1
9 -2.665827 budwiser
10 -2.654160 taylorcp
11 -2.654160 web
12 -2.654160 anthony_nyc
##### Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes
Martin O Malley No

# Forecasters: 543

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.034374 slobodan
2 -1.034374 Rhysbros
3 -1.034374 AlexisTocqueville
4 -1.034374 JHH
5 -1.032207 Pinch_Benedict
6 -1.031607 dkc
7 -1.026674 BlindWilliam
8 -1.025207 Skybullet
9 -1.019674 einsteinjs
10 -1.017507 Vuk_Vukovic
11 -0.977607 lsgold7
12 -0.966874 argon1
##### Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 711

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.350271 slobodan
3 -3.350271 AlexisTocqueville
4 -3.349302 ckruger
5 -3.345471 taxesa1
6 -3.342860 jwildberger
7 -3.320271 ThreePredictor
8 -3.318713 Dima K
9 -3.318671 Vuk_Vukovic
10 -3.315450 RickRock
11 -3.314902 Iainhen99
12 -3.310271 Mroochyslav
##### After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes

# Forecasters: 372

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.734940 Anneinak
2 -0.734940 clinton
3 -0.734940 Jean-Pierre
4 -0.734940 dowser
5 -0.734940 slobodan
6 -0.734940 scholarandcat
7 -0.734940 chackpal
8 -0.734940 DChristensen
9 -0.734940 willmartin
10 -0.734940 Ice_Panther7
11 -0.734940 Stmrb05
12 -0.734877 MaRott
##### After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Ben Carson No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 637

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.102965 slobodan
3 -2.097849 clinton
4 -2.081912 DChristensen
5 -2.060333 Dwight Smith
6 -2.055070 swanked
7 -2.011933 Aches
8 -2.004691 Stmrb05
9 -1.972965 dowser
10 -1.972123 BlueSteel
11 -1.959617 Jean-Pierre
12 -1.952438 Laeve

#### Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster US Presidential election

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -8.726924 vox vox
2 -8.611191 ckruger
3 -7.675277 cdob63
4 -7.323830 000
5 -7.108089 ravel
7 -6.342771 ESR
8 -5.954078 dowser
9 -2.182285 Ossipon

#### Open: 8

##### Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
vox vox Ben Carson 0
ESR Ben Carson 0
ckruger Ben Carson 0
dowser Ben Carson 0
ravel Ben Carson 0
cdob63 Ben Carson 0
Ossipon Ben Carson 0
vox vox Carly Fiorina 0
ESR Carly Fiorina 0
ckruger Carly Fiorina 0
dowser Carly Fiorina 0
ravel Carly Fiorina 0
cdob63 Carly Fiorina 0
Ossipon Carly Fiorina 0
Ossipon Donald Trump 40
cdob63 Donald Trump 63
dowser Donald Trump 65
ESR Donald Trump 66
vox vox Donald Trump 74
ravel Donald Trump 90
ckruger Donald Trump 95
vox vox Jeb Bush 0
ESR Jeb Bush 0
ckruger Jeb Bush 0
dowser Jeb Bush 0
ravel Jeb Bush 0
cdob63 Jeb Bush 0
Ossipon Jeb Bush 0
dowser Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
vox vox Marco Rubio 5
ckruger Marco Rubio 5
ESR Marco Rubio 16
cdob63 Marco Rubio 18
Ossipon Marco Rubio 35
dada None of the above 0
ckruger None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
vox vox None of the above 2
ESR None of the above 2
ravel None of the above 10
Ossipon None of the above 20
dowser None of the above 30
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
ravel Ted Cruz 0
dowser Ted Cruz 5
Ossipon Ted Cruz 5
ESR Ted Cruz 16
vox vox Ted Cruz 19
cdob63 Ted Cruz 19
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Ben Carson 0 0
Carly Fiorina 0 0
Donald Trump 70 70
Jeb Bush 0 0
Marco Rubio 14 16
None of the above 8 8
Ted Cruz 8 6
##### Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Bernie Sanders 0
cdob63 Bernie Sanders 0
vox vox Bernie Sanders 1
dowser Bernie Sanders 5
Ossipon Bernie Sanders 5
ESR Bernie Sanders 10
ravel Bernie Sanders 59
ravel Hillary Clinton 41
ESR Hillary Clinton 90
dowser Hillary Clinton 95
Ossipon Hillary Clinton 95
vox vox Hillary Clinton 99
ckruger Hillary Clinton 100
cdob63 Hillary Clinton 100
vox vox Martin O Malley 0
ESR Martin O Malley 0
ckruger Martin O Malley 0
dowser Martin O Malley 0
ravel Martin O Malley 0
cdob63 Martin O Malley 0
Ossipon Martin O Malley 0
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Bernie Sanders 11 11
Hillary Clinton 89 89
Martin O Malley 0 0
##### Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ESR Yes 68
dowser Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 81
Ossipon Yes 85
ravel Yes 89
vox vox Yes 90
ckruger Yes 95
Yes 86 88
##### Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel A Democrat 33
dowser A Democrat 55
ESR A Democrat 58
Ossipon A Democrat 75
vox vox A Democrat 80
cdob63 A Democrat 92
ckruger A Democrat 95
ckruger A Republican 5
cdob63 A Republican 8
vox vox A Republican 20
Ossipon A Republican 25
ESR A Republican 42
dowser A Republican 45
ravel A Republican 58
vox vox Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Ossipon Other 0
ravel Other 9
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
A Democrat 72 74
A Republican 27 24
Other 1 2
##### (Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Democrat 0
dowser Democrat 55
ESR Democrat 58
vox vox Democrat 85
Ossipon Democrat 85
cdob63 Democrat 97
ckruger Democrat 98
vox vox Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
ravel Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Ossipon Other 0
ckruger Republican 2
cdob63 Republican 3
vox vox Republican 15
Ossipon Republican 15
ESR Republican 42
dowser Republican 45
ravel Republican 100
Democrat 69 69
Other 2 2
Republican 30 29
##### Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 5
vox vox Yes 22
ESR Yes 33
dowser Yes 40
ravel Yes 45
Ossipon Yes 75
Yes 38 39
##### Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ESR Donald Trump 35
ckruger Donald Trump 35
Ossipon Donald Trump 45
vox vox Donald Trump 47
dowser Donald Trump 47
ravel Donald Trump 85
cdob63 Donald Trump 86
cdob63 John Kasich 14
ravel John Kasich 15
vox vox John Kasich 53
dowser John Kasich 53
Ossipon John Kasich 55
ESR John Kasich 65
ckruger John Kasich 65
vox vox Marco Rubio 0
ESR Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
dowser Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
cdob63 Marco Rubio 0
Ossipon Marco Rubio 0
vox vox Ted Cruz 0
ESR Ted Cruz 0
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
dowser Ted Cruz 0
ravel Ted Cruz 0
cdob63 Ted Cruz 0
Ossipon Ted Cruz 0
###### Average of best cluster forecasters
Donald Trump 48 48
John Kasich 52 52
Marco Rubio 0 0
Ted Cruz 0 0
##### Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
###### Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Donald Trump 65
ESR Donald Trump 70
dowser Donald Trump 79
vox vox Donald Trump 92
cdob63 Donald Trump 94
Ossipon Donald Trump 95
ckruger Donald Trump 98
vox vox John Kasich 0
ckruger John Kasich 0
dowser John Kasich 0
ravel John Kasich 0
cdob63 John Kasich 0
Ossipon John Kasich 0
ESR John Kasich 30
ESR Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 2
cdob63 Marco Rubio 5
Ossipon Marco Rubio 5
vox vox Marco Rubio 7
ravel Marco Rubio 15
dowser Marco Rubio 21
ESR Ted Cruz 0
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
dowser Ted Cruz 0
Ossipon Ted Cruz 0
vox vox Ted Cruz 1
cdob63 Ted Cruz 1
ravel Ted Cruz 20