Top dog GITREP 4MAR16am

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This is a GITREP based on the forecast of the most accurate forecaster punting a particular question.  We give a link to the forecaster and my count of their accuracy which is slightly different than GJOpen’s but should reproduce the same ranking.  I am not making reference to category accuracy in picking the top dog, just total accuracy, on the assumption that top dog forecasters will only punt questions they think they can win.

Entertainment

TV

Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Glenn Unlikely: 20% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Rick Highly unlikely: 0% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Carl Highly unlikely: 5% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Carol Highly unlikely: 18% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Daryl Highly unlikely: 7% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
All of the above will survive season 6 Ask me later: 50% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Human Race

Machines

Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 35% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 75% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Military

Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Likely: 80% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 25% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 100% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 25% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Hostile force projection

Iran

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 55% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 35% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 40% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
0 Highly likely: 85% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Highly unlikely: 7% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 2% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
All Highly unlikely: 6% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 35% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 30% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
No Highly likely: 85% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 11% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Counterinsurgency

Colombia

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 22% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Counterterrorism

Ethiopia

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Iran

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Burundi

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 35% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Myanmar

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Political

President

US

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Donald Trump Highly likely: 90% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 10% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Political instability

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
No Highly likely: 99% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 94% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 5% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
At least two-thirds of all seats Highly unlikely: 15% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
At least one-half but less than two-thirds Highly likely: 84% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Less than half Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 2% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
No Highly likely: 98% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Podemos Highly unlikely: 8% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 4% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Both Highly unlikely: 3% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)
Neither Highly likely: 85% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Iran

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Unlikely: 35% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Ask me later: 55% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
No Highly unlikely: 10% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 70% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 33% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

US

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 90% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
A Democrat Ask me later: 49% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
A Republican Ask me later: 51% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Other Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Hillary Clinton Highly likely: 100% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Bernie Sanders Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 98% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 40% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Sadiq Khan Likely: 60% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Economic

Economic force projection through trade agreements

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 75% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Economic instability

Germany

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Before 13 March 2016 Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive Ask me later: 45% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Not before 1 July 2016 Ask me later: 55% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Capital controls

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 70% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Unlikely: 30% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 35% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 8% mparrault (Accuracy -11.00)

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2% Khalid (Accuracy -11.54)

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast Forecaster (Accuracy)
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 1% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Ask me later: 54% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)
More than 250,000 Ask me later: 45% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0% Dima K (Accuracy -12.50)

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