GJOpen just changed the way they report total Accuracy Score. Now it is the sum of the individual accuracy scores, straight up. Mine is now +8 something. Wakeup call! The best forecasters are in the -5 range.
I’m going to change my aggregation strategy from a weighted sum of the best forecasters by category in a question (kind of a correlated Monte Carlo thing) to simply this: I will order all of the forecasters by total Accuracy Score, gather all of their latest predictions on each question, and then simply pick the prediction of the participating forecaster with the highest accuracy score for each question. Swing for the hills! Look for this soon.