Conditional expectation of exponential random variable (KPS problem 1.3.4)

import numpy as np

def exprv(Lambda, N):
 return [-np.log(u)/Lambda if u > 0 else 0 for u in np.random.uniform(0,1,N)]

def exppdf(Lambda,x):
 return Lambda*np.exp(-Lambda*x)

Lambda=0.5
L=exprv(Lambda, 10**3)
mu=np.mean(L)
print("average", mu)
for a in [1,2,3,4]:
 mua=np.mean([x for x in L if x >= a])
 print(a, mua, a +1/Lambda)

average 1.93113738994
1 2.93380553585 3.0
2 3.98684230673 4.0
3 5.11461608894 5.0
4 6.1494766773 6.0

Where do GJOpen forecasters come from

Based on my blog visits, which are primarily from GJOpen.com forecasters, I guess that forecasters are distributed as follows:

United States 62.18%
Canada 7.52%
Pakistan 6.53%
Switzerland 3.61%
United Kingdom 3.19%
Germany 1.75%
Brazil 1.68%
Netherlands 1.58%
Hong Kong SAR China 1.20%
Italy 1.17%
France 1.10%
Colombia 0.79%
Australia 0.72%
Norway 0.69%
South Africa 0.65%
Singapore 0.62%
Poland 0.58%
Argentina 0.45%
Philippines 0.34%
Croatia 0.27%
Estonia 0.27%
India 0.27%
Greece 0.24%
Ireland 0.24%
Israel 0.24%
Russia 0.24%
Mongolia 0.21%
Denmark 0.17%
Slovakia 0.17%
Bulgaria 0.14%
Romania 0.14%
Spain 0.14%
Austria 0.10%
Sweden 0.10%
Barbados 0.07%
Jamaica 0.07%
Mexico 0.07%
Portugal 0.07%
South Korea 0.07%
United Arab Emirates 0.07%
Angola 0.03%
Belgium 0.03%
Ecuador 0.03%
Hungary 0.03%
Malaysia 0.03%
New Zealand 0.03%
Turkey 0.03%
Zimbabwe 0.03%

Then what is interesting is who is not participating.  I guess people from these countries are not:  Afghanistan, Åland, Albania, Algeria, American Samoa, Andorra, Anguilla, Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Armenia, Aruba, Ascension Island, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bermuda, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bonaire, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Bouvet Island, British Indian Ocean Territory, British Virgin Islands, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Comoros, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Curaçao, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Falkland Islands, Faroe Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Finland, French Guiana, French Polynesia, French Southern and Antarctic Lands, Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greenland, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guam, Guatemala, Guernsey, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Honduras, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Isle of Man, Jan MayenIslands, Japan, Jersey, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Martinique, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mayotte, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands Antilles, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Islands, Oman, Palau, Palestine[27], Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, People’s Republic of China, Peru, Pitcairn Islands, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Republic of the Congo, Réunion, Rwanda, Saint Helena, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, Samoa, San Marino, São Tomé and Príncipe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sint Maarten, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Svalbardand, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, The Gambia, Togo, Tokelau, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Turks and Caicos Islands, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United States Virgin Islands, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Vatican City, Venezuela, Vietnam, Wallis and Futuna, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia.

GITREP 10MAR16pm

2690

Clusters
Africa
Asia
Capital controls
China
EU
Entertainment
Environment
Iran
Latin America
Markets
Middle East
North America
North Korea
Russia
Sports
Syria
US Presidential election

Africa

Status Question
Finished Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Running How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?

Closed: 1

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Branch Answer
Amama Mbabazi No
Kizza Besigye No
None of the above No
Yoweri Museveni Yes

# Forecasters: 223

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.503043 Clairvoyance
2 -0.503043 jlodge01
3 -0.502808 einsteinjs
4 -0.502691 Modog814
5 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
6 -0.502408 cdob63
7 -0.502319 GeneH
8 -0.501905 redacted
9 -0.500808 Scooozai
10 -0.499574 clinton
11 -0.499188 chackpal
12 -0.497932 paul_the_octopus

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.502808 einsteinjs
2 -0.502408 cdob63
3 -0.499188 chackpal
4 -0.496870 000
5 -0.496070 Sneaky_Pete531
6 -0.433505 Sjens
7 -0.422029 nls
8 -0.393326 ravel
9 -0.367332 Rene
10 -0.367167 RCScheffers
11 -0.352877 mparrault
12 -0.330629 slobodan

Open: 6

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
slobodan Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
einsteinjs Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
chackpal Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 3
ravel Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 5
cdob63 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 5
mparrault Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 11
nls Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 19
RCScheffers Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 22
Rene Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 22
Sneaky_Pete531 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 30
Sneaky_Pete531 Less than 10,000 60
RCScheffers Less than 10,000 76
Rene Less than 10,000 76
nls Less than 10,000 80
mparrault Less than 10,000 84
ravel Less than 10,000 94
cdob63 Less than 10,000 94
chackpal Less than 10,000 96
Sjens Less than 10,000 100
slobodan Less than 10,000 100
einsteinjs Less than 10,000 100
Sjens More than 15,000 0
slobodan More than 15,000 0
einsteinjs More than 15,000 0
chackpal More than 15,000 1
nls More than 15,000 1
ravel More than 15,000 1
cdob63 More than 15,000 1
RCScheffers More than 15,000 2
Rene More than 15,000 2
mparrault More than 15,000 5
Sneaky_Pete531 More than 15,000 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 11 14
Less than 10,000 87 82
More than 15,000 2 4

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 2
Sjens Yes 21
RCScheffers Yes 28
Rene Yes 28
chackpal Yes 30
ravel Yes 37
einsteinjs Yes 38
cdob63 Yes 38
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 43
mparrault Yes 47
nls Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 33 53

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 6
RCScheffers Yes 8
Rene Yes 8
einsteinjs Yes 9
ravel Yes 9
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 10
nls Yes 10
mparrault Yes 10
chackpal Yes 13
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 17 20

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 12
ravel Yes 12
einsteinjs Yes 16
RCScheffers Yes 18
Rene Yes 18
chackpal Yes 27
mparrault Yes 30
cdob63 Yes 51
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 65
nls Yes 65
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 38 52

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
chackpal Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Sjens Yes 1
nls Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
einsteinjs Yes 2
cdob63 Yes 2
mparrault Yes 3
RCScheffers Yes 6
Rene Yes 6
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 8 8

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 8
einsteinjs Yes 11
mparrault Yes 15
cdob63 Yes 16
RCScheffers Yes 18
Rene Yes 18
nls Yes 28
ravel Yes 29
chackpal Yes 50
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 65
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 33 24

Asia

Status Question
Finished How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Running Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Running Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Running Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?

Closed: 1

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.972678 WangShuo
3 -0.855420 geoseattleite
4 -0.708725 Van der MEI
5 -0.541507 KateWestmoreland
6 -0.519885 A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams
7 -0.500404 lsgold7
8 -0.493038 TVANKSTA
9 -0.479074 xieweisen
10 -0.460404 dr.cankraut
11 -0.460065 Shahram33
12 -0.365233 teresalam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.288985 Jean-Pierre
3 -0.264130 cdob63
4 -0.257545 000
5 -0.257445 ravel
6 -0.232613 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.220289 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.209220 malcmur
9 -0.199880 mparrault
10 -0.193285 boz
11 -0.145470 sh517
12 -0.070631 kormac

Open: 3

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
malcmur Yes 80
kormac Yes 80
boz Yes 85
Spandrelbarca Yes 89
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
mparrault Yes 95
sh517 Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
ravel Yes 100
cdob63 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 89 87

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
malcmur Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 11
Jean-Pierre Yes 12
patrickmeehan5 Yes 15
boz Yes 18
mparrault Yes 18
sh517 Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 24 25

Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
sh517 Grace Poe 0
slobodan Grace Poe 0
malcmur Grace Poe 20
mparrault Grace Poe 25
ravel Grace Poe 33
Spandrelbarca Grace Poe 35
kormac Grace Poe 40
boz Grace Poe 42
patrickmeehan5 Grace Poe 49
Jean-Pierre Grace Poe 55
cdob63 Grace Poe 80
slobodan Jejomar Binay 11
cdob63 Jejomar Binay 12
Jean-Pierre Jejomar Binay 25
boz Jejomar Binay 29
kormac Jejomar Binay 30
ravel Jejomar Binay 34
Spandrelbarca Jejomar Binay 35
mparrault Jejomar Binay 39
patrickmeehan5 Jejomar Binay 51
malcmur Jejomar Binay 60
sh517 Jejomar Binay 100
sh517 Mar Roxas 0
malcmur Mar Roxas 0
slobodan Mar Roxas 0
patrickmeehan5 Mar Roxas 0
ravel Mar Roxas 2
cdob63 Mar Roxas 2
Spandrelbarca Mar Roxas 5
mparrault Mar Roxas 7
boz Mar Roxas 9
Jean-Pierre Mar Roxas 10
kormac Mar Roxas 20
sh517 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
malcmur Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Jean-Pierre Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
slobodan Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
kormac Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
cdob63 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
patrickmeehan5 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Spandrelbarca Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
boz Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
mparrault Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
ravel Miriam Defensor-Santiago 2
sh517 None of the above 0
malcmur None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
slobodan None of the above 0
kormac None of the above 0
ravel None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
mparrault None of the above 1
boz None of the above 2
Spandrelbarca None of the above 5
sh517 Rodrigo Duterte 0
patrickmeehan5 Rodrigo Duterte 0
cdob63 Rodrigo Duterte 6
Jean-Pierre Rodrigo Duterte 10
kormac Rodrigo Duterte 10
boz Rodrigo Duterte 17
malcmur Rodrigo Duterte 20
Spandrelbarca Rodrigo Duterte 20
mparrault Rodrigo Duterte 27
ravel Rodrigo Duterte 29
slobodan Rodrigo Duterte 89
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Grace Poe 34 23
Jejomar Binay 39 45
Mar Roxas 5 6
Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0 0
None of the above 1 1
Rodrigo Duterte 21 25

Capital controls

Status Question
Finished Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?
Finished Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?
Finished Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?
Finished Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?
Finished Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?
Finished Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Finished How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Running Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Running Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Running Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Running Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Running How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Running Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Running Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

Closed: 10

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 55

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.760930 mc77
2 -0.735999 brazilianwitchcraft
3 -0.680486 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -0.621344 fchoe
5 -0.612430 Jamison
6 -0.512430 pb41
7 -0.475930 Falconer
8 -0.471430 afoyfs
9 -0.442875 banda311
10 -0.420097 Mikatec
11 -0.403430 Khalid
12 -0.402097 bconlee

Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 175

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.284685 Peter Katzenfisch
2 -0.281174 tumbleweed
3 -0.278442 Rebel ran riot
4 -0.274153 974david
5 -0.259251 gust
6 -0.249651 Anneinak
7 -0.244319 Agent0090
8 -0.241672 clinton
9 -0.240093 darius.hinton
10 -0.237868 donmars
11 -0.232025 Randy
12 -0.222495 dada

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 94

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.272006 Paul Theron
2 -0.261711 jeremylichtman
3 -0.257041 Dwight Smith
4 -0.255736 PinyonCyn
5 -0.255723 llanchav
6 -0.255463 000
7 -0.253607 Asteras
8 -0.251375 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.249679 Falconer
10 -0.249569 BlockHead
11 -0.249350 Manfred
12 -0.247481 slobodan

Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.217195 Reynard
2 -0.210510 PinyonCyn
3 -0.210313 Falconer
4 -0.208338 bmiller
5 -0.203094 000
6 -0.197395 Darren
7 -0.195541 Oracle
8 -0.192805 rjuarbe
9 -0.192805 llanchav
10 -0.192805 bill l
11 -0.192421 Dwight Smith
12 -0.189526 BlockHead

Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 579

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.455791 eightball
2 -0.452291 Bob Woods
3 -0.450841 briannbarbour
4 -0.450595 Chiyouen
5 -0.445891 harshabn
6 -0.445891 hn7815
7 -0.445597 patrickmeehan5
8 -0.443119 nc.ch
9 -0.443119 Picasso1387
10 -0.438247 Falconer
11 -0.431191 Ron
12 -0.431191 dyco

Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 112

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.421854 GP Jim
2 -0.416593 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.411894 lookitsKB
4 -0.406159 donmars
5 -0.402262 gearhart5k
6 -0.400807 iajski
7 -0.397209 Doina
8 -0.396262 ambidextrous
9 -0.382315 jnord
10 -0.377525 davecrosby
11 -0.377525 thalt123
12 -0.377525 Garyland

Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 127

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.528685 Manfred
2 -0.519695 PetaBajt
3 -0.500274 drbooze
4 -0.497586 dada
5 -0.495485 LisinHvost
6 -0.495485 CRaazi
7 -0.470906 Rote
8 -0.465380 Somchai A
9 -0.454093 MarkBadger
10 -0.438531 GeneH
11 -0.429853 fightin bronco
12 -0.423695 Minnesota71

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 101

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.082346 Anneinak
2 -0.082346 DariusX
3 -0.082346 Raisinville
4 -0.082346 Spandrelbarca
5 -0.082346 ckruger
6 -0.082346 redacted
7 -0.082346 Gleb_Kabanov
8 -0.082346 luzkannon
9 -0.082346 rockytop00
10 -0.082346 kormac
11 -0.082346 CalMotoMal
12 -0.082346 Free-thinker

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Branch Answer
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Yes
Someone else from Europe No
Someone from outside Europe No

# Forecasters: 277

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.678659 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.678659 RedHarris
3 -0.670050 einsteinjs
4 -0.668659 Travist
5 -0.660536 kormac
6 -0.651727 AjzakN
7 -0.649459 PaulLynch
8 -0.648659 15
9 -0.643423 alistaircookie
10 -0.642159 malcmur
11 -0.641236 dkc
12 -0.631955 Srzaua

How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Branch Answer
Four No
None No
One No
Three No
Two Yes

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.988249 einsteinjs
2 -0.984349 z0k
3 -0.984182 gkamstra
4 -0.982182 Sjens
5 -0.981382 alistaircookie
6 -0.980449 sonac36
7 -0.978982 Khalid
8 -0.978982 fifty-sixty
9 -0.978982 Overtheriver
10 -0.978982 searchlight
11 -0.978982 Persistanceofmemory
12 -0.974049 DariusX

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.458420 000
2 -2.282963 cdob63
3 -1.825863 ravel
4 -1.684331 patrickmeehan5
5 -1.414834 kormac
6 -1.342902 mparrault

Open: 7

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 11
ravel Yes 17
mparrault Yes 20
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 31 32

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 4
kormac Yes 5
ravel Yes 7
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 3 3

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 4
mparrault Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 60
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 14 14

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 18
mparrault Yes 25
kormac Yes 30
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 17 17

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Above 75 0
ravel Above 75 2
mparrault Above 75 11
kormac Above 75 25
patrickmeehan5 Above 75 69
kormac Between 51 and 60, inclusive 3
patrickmeehan5 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
mparrault Between 51 and 60, inclusive 21
ravel Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
cdob63 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
patrickmeehan5 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 20
mparrault Between 61 and 75, inclusive 60
ravel Between 61 and 75, inclusive 68
kormac Between 61 and 75, inclusive 70
cdob63 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 75
cdob63 In the top 50 0
patrickmeehan5 In the top 50 1
kormac In the top 50 2
ravel In the top 50 5
mparrault In the top 50 8
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Above 75 21 21
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 17 17
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 59 59
In the top 50 3 3

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
ravel Yes 2
kormac Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 4 4

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 72
ravel Yes 77
patrickmeehan5 Yes 80
kormac Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 76 76

China

Status Question
Finished Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?
Finished Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?
Running Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Running Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Running Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?

Closed: 2

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 148

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.183613 Easy Miles
2 -0.182941 Paul Theron
3 -0.179515 Spandrelbarca
4 -0.170171 PinyonCyn
5 -0.166687 000
6 -0.166441 Matt
7 -0.163613 Darren
8 -0.160171 Xu
9 -0.158833 dylanjones
10 -0.150826 Roosevelt
11 -0.146728 slobodan
12 -0.145987 hyperionok

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 182

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.340406 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.335406 Lucky
3 -0.334716 redacted
4 -0.332039 madre
5 -0.330305 ckruger
6 -0.323263 dkc
7 -0.319087 DMOzone
8 -0.313338 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.312933 slobodan
10 -0.294619 jkbick
11 -0.294059 sh517
12 -0.293331 000

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.470521 madre
2 -0.460018 000
3 -0.459661 slobodan
4 -0.426133 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.415508 alistaircookie
6 -0.412462 Lucky
7 -0.410775 ckruger
8 -0.402072 klin
9 -0.389949 cmeinel
10 -0.362608 cdob63
11 -0.354234 Buck Clemons
12 -0.339882 mparrault

Open: 3

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel Yes 1
Buck Clemons Yes 10
klin Yes 12
Jean-Pierre Yes 21
alistaircookie Yes 33
mparrault Yes 35
ckruger Yes 54
cdob63 Yes 58
madre Yes 68
Lucky Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 42 38

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Lucky Yes 1
ckruger Yes 3
alistaircookie Yes 3
klin Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
Buck Clemons Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre Yes 14
madre Yes 28
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 17 17

Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel No 47
klin No 60
Jean-Pierre No 60
Lucky No 70
Buck Clemons No 85
mparrault No 85
cdob63 No 97
madre No 98
alistaircookie No 98
ckruger No 99
slobodan No 100
Buck Clemons Yes, with both 0
ckruger Yes, with both 0
cmeinel Yes, with both 0
slobodan Yes, with both 0
madre Yes, with both 0
cdob63 Yes, with both 0
Lucky Yes, with both 0
alistaircookie Yes, with both 2
mparrault Yes, with both 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, with both 3
klin Yes, with both 25
slobodan Yes, with only Iran 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Iran 0
ckruger Yes, with only Iran 1
madre Yes, with only Iran 1
cdob63 Yes, with only Iran 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Iran 10
mparrault Yes, with only Iran 10
klin Yes, with only Iran 15
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Iran 23
Lucky Yes, with only Iran 30
cmeinel Yes, with only Iran 53
klin Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
ckruger Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cmeinel Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
slobodan Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cdob63 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
Lucky Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
madre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
mparrault Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 14
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
No 82 82
Yes, with both 3 3
Yes, with only Iran 13 13
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 2 2

EU

Status Question
Finished Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?
Finished Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?
Running Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Running Who will be the next mayor of London?
Running Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?

Closed: 2

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 89

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.157904 Falconer
2 -0.151375 cdob63
3 -0.151312 clinton
4 -0.148035 mike97mike
5 -0.145732 malcmur
6 -0.145535 scholarandcat
7 -0.145353 000
8 -0.144310 patrickmeehan5
9 -0.139261 dada
10 -0.139216 Lux
11 -0.139016 Hammer Time
12 -0.137692 mparrault

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 429

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.580726 slobodan
2 -0.575320 drouq_
3 -0.547018 duth_forever
4 -0.545726 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.535726 marcbgoldberg
6 -0.530987 mayflower
7 -0.514668 searchlight
8 -0.511393 monique
9 -0.500726 CedricJ
10 -0.497226 Augustinas
11 -0.496351 scurcuru
12 -0.492341 jfm293c

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.690036 patrickmeehan5
2 -0.530723 Delorean
3 -0.487162 cdob63
4 -0.432758 nls
5 -0.324086 austerity
6 -0.298233 Jean-Pierre
7 -0.295004 Rene
8 -0.285294 000
9 -0.262162 RCScheffers
10 -0.225466 JuliusKo
11 -0.205670 boz
12 -0.195666 Anneinak

Open: 3

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers Both 0
JuliusKo Both 0
Jean-Pierre Both 0
Delorean Both 0
Anneinak Both 0
Rene Both 0
cdob63 Both 0
nls Both 1
boz Both 4
austerity Both 5
patrickmeehan5 Both 80
Delorean Ciudadanos 0
cdob63 Ciudadanos 1
nls Ciudadanos 2
Jean-Pierre Ciudadanos 2
JuliusKo Ciudadanos 3
RCScheffers Ciudadanos 5
austerity Ciudadanos 5
Rene Ciudadanos 5
patrickmeehan5 Ciudadanos 5
boz Ciudadanos 6
Anneinak Ciudadanos 10
patrickmeehan5 Neither 5
austerity Neither 85
boz Neither 89
Anneinak Neither 90
RCScheffers Neither 95
nls Neither 95
JuliusKo Neither 95
Rene Neither 95
Jean-Pierre Neither 96
cdob63 Neither 99
Delorean Neither 100
RCScheffers Podemos 0
Delorean Podemos 0
Anneinak Podemos 0
Rene Podemos 0
cdob63 Podemos 0
boz Podemos 1
nls Podemos 2
JuliusKo Podemos 2
Jean-Pierre Podemos 2
austerity Podemos 5
patrickmeehan5 Podemos 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Both 8 7
Ciudadanos 4 4
Neither 86 86
Podemos 2 3

Who will be the next mayor of London?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers None of the above 0
nls None of the above 0
austerity None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
Delorean None of the above 0
Anneinak None of the above 0
Rene None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
JuliusKo None of the above 1
boz None of the above 3
nls Sadiq Khan 64
austerity Sadiq Khan 65
JuliusKo Sadiq Khan 74
Jean-Pierre Sadiq Khan 75
Anneinak Sadiq Khan 77
RCScheffers Sadiq Khan 78
Rene Sadiq Khan 78
boz Sadiq Khan 80
Delorean Sadiq Khan 91
cdob63 Sadiq Khan 94
patrickmeehan5 Sadiq Khan 99
patrickmeehan5 Zac Goldsmith 1
cdob63 Zac Goldsmith 6
Delorean Zac Goldsmith 9
boz Zac Goldsmith 17
RCScheffers Zac Goldsmith 22
Rene Zac Goldsmith 22
Anneinak Zac Goldsmith 23
JuliusKo Zac Goldsmith 25
Jean-Pierre Zac Goldsmith 25
austerity Zac Goldsmith 35
nls Zac Goldsmith 36
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
None of the above 0 0
Sadiq Khan 80 82
Zac Goldsmith 20 18

Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
austerity Yes 55
Jean-Pierre Yes 55
RCScheffers Yes 58
Rene Yes 58
boz Yes 62
Anneinak Yes 66
JuliusKo Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 81
nls Yes 90
Delorean Yes 95
patrickmeehan5 Yes 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 72 75

Entertainment

Status Question
Finished Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?
Finished Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?
Finished Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Finished Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Running Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Running Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Running Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Running Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Running Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Running Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?

Closed: 4

Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 145

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.623068 RichStenberg
2 -0.587479 ben
3 -0.583794 jeremylichtman
4 -0.534189 Khalid
5 -0.517468 yankeeracer
6 -0.504694 Socrates
7 -0.498268 SmallTown Gal
8 -0.482305 ESR
9 -0.478389 patrickmeehan5
10 -0.470505 KokaV992
11 -0.468663 Slackline
12 -0.468663 matadams4u

Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 238

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.215373 piodzie
2 -0.215373 BestGuess
3 -0.215052 heinlager
4 -0.210786 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.210590 hyperionok
6 -0.210590 List9845
7 -0.210419 XanX
8 -0.210419 selkhet7
9 -0.210419 raullegaz
10 -0.210419 Predrag
11 -0.205878 Themistokles
12 -0.205878 JH_Bernard

Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Branch Answer
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser No
Laser Maze Jr. No
Makey Makey Classic No
Meccanoid G15 Yes
MiPosaur No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator No
i-loom No

# Forecasters: 160

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.460378 vkent
2 -1.359424 renatomt
3 -1.242494 albender
4 -1.153113 Graham88
5 -0.971340 janeanne
6 -0.961103 fifty-sixty
7 -0.886779 calebw
8 -0.873897 Magloghan
9 -0.870655 praedico
10 -0.870378 Minsky
11 -0.862222 Dima K
12 -0.846671 Dilamarter

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Branch Answer
Bridge of Spies No
Brooklyn No
Mad Max: Fury Road No
Room No
Spotlight Yes
The Big Short No
The Martian No
The Revenant No

# Forecasters: 402

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.032620 slobodan
2 -1.634741 Mr.Macbeth
3 -1.507166 Potter
4 -1.496863 pablogabriels
5 -1.488378 acerock6
6 -1.444981 craigellan
7 -1.416951 Dima K
8 -1.399396 Costusinsights
9 -1.218123 dylbyl25
10 -1.157466 Scabe
11 -1.124422 Claudio
12 -1.109287 kbaker

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.209046 GJDrew
2 -1.595470 mparrault
3 -1.541718 patrickmeehan5
4 -1.505138 000
5 -1.391106 yaifuz26
6 -1.375077 cdob63
7 -1.023185 ravel
8 -0.244440 petth

Open: 6

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 2
mparrault Yes 4
ravel Yes 5
GJDrew Yes 11
petth Yes 25
yaifuz26 Yes 55
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 29 29

Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth All of the above will survive season 6 0
patrickmeehan5 All of the above will survive season 6 0
yaifuz26 All of the above will survive season 6 25
GJDrew All of the above will survive season 6 42
cdob63 All of the above will survive season 6 42
ravel All of the above will survive season 6 52
mparrault All of the above will survive season 6 54
ravel Carl 0
patrickmeehan5 Carl 0
GJDrew Carl 2
mparrault Carl 3
cdob63 Carl 14
yaifuz26 Carl 25
petth Carl 50
patrickmeehan5 Carol 0
yaifuz26 Carol 15
mparrault Carol 15
GJDrew Carol 19
ravel Carol 22
cdob63 Carol 34
petth Carol 50
petth Daryl 0
patrickmeehan5 Daryl 0
cdob63 Daryl 6
mparrault Daryl 7
GJDrew Daryl 18
yaifuz26 Daryl 20
ravel Daryl 22
yaifuz26 Glenn 0
petth Glenn 0
cdob63 Glenn 3
ravel Glenn 4
GJDrew Glenn 19
mparrault Glenn 20
patrickmeehan5 Glenn 99
petth Rick 0
GJDrew Rick 0
ravel Rick 0
cdob63 Rick 1
patrickmeehan5 Rick 1
mparrault Rick 1
yaifuz26 Rick 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
All of the above will survive season 6 31 28
Carl 13 14
Carol 22 22
Daryl 10 12
Glenn 21 22
Rick 3 2

Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 1
patrickmeehan5 Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 6
GJDrew Yes 15
yaifuz26 Yes 45
petth Yes 50
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 18 20

Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 0
petth Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
yaifuz26 Yes 65
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 24 24

Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 7
mparrault Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 11
GJDrew Yes 13
yaifuz26 Yes 15
petth Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 26 26

Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 35
yaifuz26 Yes 85
ravel Yes 89
GJDrew Yes 90
cdob63 Yes 94
petth Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 85 100

Environment

Status Question
Finished Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?
Running Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Running Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?

Closed: 1

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 185

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 DariusX
2 -0.117004 000
3 -0.117004 Delorean
4 -0.117004 Clairvoyance
5 -0.117004 alistaircookie
6 -0.117004 tom.prigg
7 -0.117004 AlexisTocqueville
8 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
9 -0.116822 dkc
10 -0.116804 clinton
11 -0.116804 ravel
12 -0.116804 guesser

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 000
2 -0.117004 Delorean
3 -0.117004 alistaircookie
4 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
5 -0.116804 clinton
6 -0.116804 ravel
7 -0.115413 Khalid
8 -0.115413 REGallahue
9 -0.115413 argon1
10 -0.115076 morrell
11 -0.114458 cdob63
12 -0.106795 Amir

Open: 2

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 65
Amir Yes 65
alistaircookie Yes 66
REGallahue Yes 72
Khalid Yes 75
morrell Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 84
Gfrizzi Yes 85
Delorean Yes 85
clinton Yes 89
argon1 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 78 78

Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
argon1 Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
alistaircookie Yes 0
Gfrizzi Yes 2
REGallahue Yes 3
Delorean Yes 4
cdob63 Yes 4
morrell Yes 5
Amir Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
Khalid Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 4 4

Iran

Status Question
Finished Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?
Finished Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Finished Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?
Finished Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?
Finished Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?
Finished Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?
Finished When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Finished Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?
Finished Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?
Running Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Running Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Running Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Running Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Running Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Running Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

Closed: 9

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 201

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.448675 Bill
2 -0.427661 alterego
3 -0.427661 Socrates
4 -0.427661 Gregory
5 -0.423900 gust
6 -0.416900 Ron
7 -0.414039 thomas.r
8 -0.410052 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.408277 Delorean
10 -0.396248 Jay R
11 -0.389146 jatreit
12 -0.388274 Poorforecaster

Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Branch Answer
No Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand No

# Forecasters: 86

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.814923 Falconer
2 -0.814547 GeneH
3 -0.804947 Wagle
4 -0.785418 johneyhb
5 -0.726712 einsteinjs
6 -0.726523 dms
7 -0.684241 Manfred
8 -0.663959 wlmsears
9 -0.651253 Raisinville
10 -0.642006 Dwight Smith
11 -0.574429 ESR
12 -0.559912 GJDrew

Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 69

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.125324 000
2 -0.125324 ravel
3 -0.125006 cdob63
4 -0.120986 donmars
5 -0.120324 jnord
6 -0.119806 UnderwaterPutin
7 -0.119806 Khalid
8 -0.117048 jatreit
9 -0.115524 gust
10 -0.111875 Anneinak
11 -0.108772 malcmur
12 -0.107889 GP Jim

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 37

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.566842 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.528271 Manfred
3 -0.521585 ESR
4 -0.488671 usajvbueno
5 -0.478985 donmars
6 -0.478985 jnord
7 -0.456957 Mroochyslav
8 -0.434699 clinton
9 -0.428985 Shahar
10 -0.428985 ZEUS
11 -0.420642 madre
12 -0.410414 Khalid

Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 122

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.188506 Agent0090
2 -0.188201 000
3 -0.185291 TVANKSTA
4 -0.185191 Khalid
5 -0.184458 jnord
6 -0.182363 cdob63
7 -0.180791 cmeinel
8 -0.180529 usajvbueno
9 -0.180529 GP Jim
10 -0.177358 sluggoman
11 -0.177358 JP
12 -0.176658 alistaircookie

Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 294

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.276187 slobodan
2 -0.275987 Asia
3 -0.275387 twodox
4 -0.267238 clinton
5 -0.266561 Rosario
6 -0.266057 mayflower
7 -0.264098 madre
8 -0.262787 ckruger
9 -0.262169 GoodieGoodie
10 -0.261974 JHooson
11 -0.261935 Manfred
12 -0.260767 cdob63

When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Branch Answer
Before 1 March 2016 Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive No
Not before 1 July 2016 No

# Forecasters: 146

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.958118 fifty-sixty
2 -1.925718 azharala
3 -1.851830 Wagle
4 -1.780945 Travist
5 -1.737334 Cansee
6 -1.645718 Shashank
7 -1.527385 Pachi
8 -1.474052 jsheth
9 -1.411223 john27
10 -1.395718 travelershope
11 -1.357334 jordanstone01
12 -1.339800 fatalis

Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 121

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.484838 slobodan
2 -0.484638 Kumar_Shah
3 -0.479838 Angturil
4 -0.479838 Ellieb
5 -0.475771 kormac
6 -0.473238 fron24
7 -0.464838 dcrosby51
8 -0.439838 Hadrain
9 -0.439838 rpirzada
10 -0.439838 Peyman2030
11 -0.439838 Mehrdad
12 -0.427704 arash

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 200

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.193305 Falconer
2 -0.193064 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.191790 redacted
4 -0.189949 KSpain
5 -0.189321 cdob63
6 -0.188305 Travist
7 -0.188305 fron24
8 -0.188305 JohnH
9 -0.188305 theprof
10 -0.186455 phdork
11 -0.186258 Vicrums
12 -0.183146 Liam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.776117 mparrault
2 -1.654682 Khalid
3 -1.526950 cdob63
4 -1.473965 Jean-Pierre
5 -1.439449 slobodan
6 -1.391127 000
7 -1.158899 Spandrelbarca
8 -1.136187 madre
9 -0.977923 petth
10 -0.864946 malcmur
11 -0.750579 ravel

Open: 6

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
ravel Yes 0
madre Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 11
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 1 1

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 50
ravel Yes 67
mparrault Yes 75
madre Yes 82
Spandrelbarca Yes 85
Jean-Pierre Yes 99
cdob63 Yes 99
malcmur Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Khalid Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 86 86

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 3
madre Yes 4
mparrault Yes 4
Khalid Yes 5
ravel Yes 11
petth Yes 35
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 6 7

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Khalid No 25
petth No 45
Spandrelbarca No 50
cdob63 No 70
Jean-Pierre No 80
mparrault No 80
madre No 85
malcmur No 90
slobodan No 95
ravel No 98
slobodan Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
madre Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 8
malcmur Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Jean-Pierre Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
cdob63 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 27
Khalid Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 30
petth Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 50
malcmur Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
cdob63 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 3
petth Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
slobodan Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
madre Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 7
Jean-Pierre Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
Khalid Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 45
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
No 72 68
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 17 19
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 11 13

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 11
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
petth Yes 25
malcmur Yes 30
ravel Yes 31
mparrault Yes 36
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
madre Yes 95
Khalid Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 53 39

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
madre Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
mparrault Yes 1
malcmur Yes 5
ravel Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 6
petth Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 7 8

Latin America

Status Question
Finished Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Finished Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?
Running Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Running Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Running Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?

Closed: 2

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Branch Answer
Daniel Scioli No
Mauricio Macri Yes
Sergio Massa No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.130566 Markmsl
3 -1.016340 achatkin
4 -1.012129 ogross
5 -0.916866 fleppy
6 -0.802839 mybaby4929
7 -0.802524 DSchultz
8 -0.775564 Dido
9 -0.745997 lindsey
10 -0.733760 Julius
11 -0.727012 danbazurto
12 -0.716208 974david

Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 138

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.604602 Chrisdo
2 -0.592102 DavidHume1776
3 -0.587352 Alex11
4 -0.579602 Mdmalseed
5 -0.576852 jkbick
6 -0.572102 starbright
7 -0.567102 geoseattleite
8 -0.554602 saesousa
9 -0.550227 drofter
10 -0.537102 malaquias
11 -0.529602 k13rkeg44rd
12 -0.525602 Jean-Pierre

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.254296 jkbick
3 -1.132342 Dima K
4 -0.869938 boz
5 -0.816969 Jean-Pierre
6 -0.748679 dada
7 -0.704294 austerity
8 -0.690951 mparrault
9 -0.657770 Censusguyz
10 -0.515330 GeneH
11 -0.292317 000
12 -0.213493 cdob63

Open: 3

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Censusguyz Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
dada Yes 1
Dima K Yes 1
GeneH Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 2
jkbick Yes 5
boz Yes 6
austerity Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 2 18

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Censusguyz Yes 0
slobodan Yes 1
dada Yes 9
GeneH Yes 15
austerity Yes 20
Dima K Yes 20
mparrault Yes 20
jkbick Yes 25
Jean-Pierre Yes 25
boz Yes 42
cdob63 Yes 57
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 21 32

Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
boz Yes 64
austerity Yes 70
Dima K Yes 75
mparrault Yes 75
cdob63 Yes 86
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
jkbick Yes 91
Censusguyz Yes 95
dada Yes 95
GeneH Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 85 75

Markets

Status Question
Finished What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Finished What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Finished Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Finished Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?
Running What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Running Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
Running Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Running Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Running What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?

Closed: 4

What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Branch Answer
6.40 or more Yes
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive No
Less than 6.30 No
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 No

# Forecasters: 340

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.238701 Rebel ran riot
2 -1.213703 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.063215 brightling
4 -1.009150 Bill
5 -0.995167 Investmentitos
6 -0.931671 Darren
7 -0.921602 tfolkes
8 -0.893866 Doina
9 -0.873036 Mroochyslav
10 -0.818662 JJMLP
11 -0.810939 dkandersen
12 -0.810939 petergreen

What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Branch Answer
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive Yes
Less than $34.00 per barrel No
More than $40.00 per barrel No

# Forecasters: 636

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.000374 hoopengarners
2 -0.991402 kdcnett
3 -0.987197 schliemann
4 -0.958145 achatkin
5 -0.928879 lookitsKB
6 -0.892711 Diplo
7 -0.880094 Jamison
8 -0.879814 Araasatrian
9 -0.869518 domesticenginerd
10 -0.852150 JHooson
11 -0.843645 Jfoster
12 -0.834487 laz

Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Branch Answer
Adam Bain No
Anthony Noto No
Jack Dorsey Yes
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 83

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.086151 Raisinville
2 -0.828338 clinton
3 -0.768231 malcmur
4 -0.754898 wlmsears
5 -0.597665 GJDrew
6 -0.589038 000
7 -0.543565 jumblies
8 -0.504658 KristiG
9 -0.503861 slobodan
10 -0.501565 Ziggysak
11 -0.492231 PlanetPanic
12 -0.474798 cdob63

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.739582 Crown
2 -0.719789 asolismon
3 -0.711524 Rettic, MBA
4 -0.706855 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
5 -0.694582 bet10
6 -0.662792 Kyle_protho
7 -0.661111 Liza
8 -0.645409 mstlau
9 -0.637144 Mdmalseed
10 -0.637144 misti.graziani@gmail.com
11 -0.633218 Hector N
12 -0.633218 bodipb

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Markets

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.625960 Raisinville
2 -1.366373 slobodan
3 -1.216705 000
4 -1.029009 mparrault
5 -0.875090 ravel
6 -0.765186 cdob63
7 -0.589390 jeremylichtman

Open: 5

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
cdob63 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 36
mparrault Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 38
ravel Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 65
Raisinville Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 70
jeremylichtman Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 80
jeremylichtman Less than 125,000 0
slobodan Less than 125,000 0
cdob63 Less than 125,000 0
mparrault Less than 125,000 2
ravel Less than 125,000 25
Raisinville Less than 125,000 25
Raisinville More than 250,000 5
ravel More than 250,000 10
jeremylichtman More than 250,000 20
mparrault More than 250,000 60
cdob63 More than 250,000 64
slobodan More than 250,000 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 48 40
Less than 125,000 9 11
More than 250,000 43 49

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
jeremylichtman Yes 0
Raisinville Yes 0
ravel Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 2
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 17 21

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
jeremylichtman Yes 0
ravel Yes 0
Raisinville Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 17 12

Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
jeremylichtman Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
Raisinville Yes 1
mparrault Yes 3
ravel Yes 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 4 5

What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 6.80 or more 2
ravel 6.80 or more 8
Raisinville 6.80 or more 10
mparrault 6.80 or more 15
jeremylichtman 6.80 or more 20
slobodan 6.80 or more 100
slobodan Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 0
jeremylichtman Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 5
ravel Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 33
mparrault Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 35
Raisinville Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 40
cdob63 Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 46
jeremylichtman Less than 6.40 0
slobodan Less than 6.40 0
ravel Less than 6.40 2
cdob63 Less than 6.40 8
mparrault Less than 6.40 15
Raisinville Less than 6.40 20
slobodan More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 0
Raisinville More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 30
mparrault More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 35
cdob63 More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 44
ravel More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 57
jeremylichtman More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
6.80 or more 26 16
Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive 26 28
Less than 6.40 8 0
More than 6.60 but less than 6.80 40 56

Middle East

Status Question
Finished How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Running Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Running Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Running Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Running Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Running Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

Closed: 1

How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Branch Answer
A majority Yes
A plurality No
Not a plurality No

# Forecasters: 154

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.293748 okhope18
2 -1.234406 dcdiamond
3 -1.013102 KSpain
4 -0.965664 Raisinville
5 -0.944200 KaiserSoze
6 -0.885844 admiralporky
7 -0.832296 Kleto
8 -0.831651 markusbehrend
9 -0.822941 Lucky
10 -0.819554 Costarican
11 -0.819554 kksartorius
12 -0.817819 Stewart Edwards

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Middle East

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.885844 admiralporky
2 -0.741090 Amir
3 -0.592619 kormac
4 -0.503751 nls
5 -0.172201 Heffalump
6 -0.164852 Spandrelbarca
7 -0.156167 Clairvoyance
8 -0.148723 000
9 -0.135981 mparrault
10 -0.132594 cmeinel
11 -0.099533 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.096062 slobodan

Open: 5

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
admiralporky No 40
Jean-Pierre No 90
Heffalump No 90
cmeinel No 94
kormac No 95
nls No 98
mparrault No 98
Amir No 98
Spandrelbarca No 99
Clairvoyance No 100
slobodan No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 30
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 3
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 30
admiralporky Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
nls Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
cmeinel Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
slobodan Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
kormac Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
mparrault Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Amir Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Heffalump Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 1
admiralporky Yes, Someone else 0
nls Yes, Someone else 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Someone else 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Someone else 0
cmeinel Yes, Someone else 0
slobodan Yes, Someone else 0
kormac Yes, Someone else 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Someone else 0
mparrault Yes, Someone else 0
Heffalump Yes, Someone else 1
Amir Yes, Someone else 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
No 91 91
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5 5
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4 4
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0 0
Yes, Someone else 0 0

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Amir Yes 0
Clairvoyance Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
nls Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
Heffalump Yes 13
Spandrelbarca Yes 13
admiralporky Yes 22
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 8 8

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
admiralporky No 0
slobodan No 0
Heffalump No 68
kormac No 80
nls No 85
Clairvoyance No 90
mparrault No 91
Jean-Pierre No 92
cmeinel No 95
Spandrelbarca No 95
Amir No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Amir Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
nls Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
Jean-Pierre Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
mparrault Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
Heffalump Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 3
kormac Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5
admiralporky Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 15
slobodan Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 100
slobodan Yes, only Article 4 0
Amir Yes, only Article 4 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 4 5
cmeinel Yes, only Article 4 5
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 4 5
mparrault Yes, only Article 4 7
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 4 10
kormac Yes, only Article 4 10
nls Yes, only Article 4 12
Heffalump Yes, only Article 4 27
admiralporky Yes, only Article 4 80
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, only Article 5 0
slobodan Yes, only Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 5 0
Amir Yes, only Article 5 0
mparrault Yes, only Article 5 1
nls Yes, only Article 5 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 5 2
Heffalump Yes, only Article 5 2
admiralporky Yes, only Article 5 5
kormac Yes, only Article 5 5
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
No 72 68
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 11 12
Yes, only Article 4 15 18
Yes, only Article 5 2 2

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Clairvoyance Yes 0
nls Yes 3
cmeinel Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 7
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
kormac Yes 30
Heffalump Yes 60
admiralporky Yes 70
Amir Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 34 34

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 3
cmeinel Yes 15
Clairvoyance Yes 35
mparrault Yes 45
Amir Yes 45
Heffalump Yes 50
nls Yes 55
kormac Yes 75
admiralporky Yes 80
Spandrelbarca Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 54 57

North America

Status Question
Finished Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Finished Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Closed: 2

Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Branch Answer
Conservative No
Liberal Yes
New Democratic Party No
Other No

# Forecasters: 135

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.171706 Falconer
2 -1.102249 NHUNGUYEN
3 -0.847992 Raisinville
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.681578 GJDrew
6 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
7 -0.564292 Rote
8 -0.540049 einsteinjs
9 -0.524206 Khalid
10 -0.515710 p_odo
11 -0.515648 khoshea
12 -0.492153 patrickmeehan5

Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.150136 Rebel ran riot
2 -0.150136 Praxis
3 -0.150136 Jamison
4 -0.149936 flc79
5 -0.149780 mayflower
6 -0.147305 000
7 -0.147271 Dwight Smith
8 -0.146936 moria
9 -0.145351 DoctorWho
10 -0.145136 ricofig
11 -0.145136 GottaWearShades
12 -0.144873 Falconer

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.316579 Falconer
2 -0.847992 Raisinville
3 -0.756784 GJDrew
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.627708 p_odo
6 -0.605262 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.589885 cdob63
8 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
9 -0.572298 Rote
10 -0.542590 einsteinjs
11 -0.537919 kbub
12 -0.515648 khoshea

Open: 0

North Korea

Status Question
Finished Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?
Finished Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?
Finished Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?
Running Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Running Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Running Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

Closed: 3

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 260

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.594570 dowser
2 -0.588922 redacted
3 -0.577257 catmob
4 -0.576413 Konrad
5 -0.570101 Diplo
6 -0.565070 Anneinak
7 -0.559343 Rote
8 -0.558945 rebeccams
9 -0.557351 974david
10 -0.555618 Rebel ran riot
11 -0.550788 Hammer Time
12 -0.548445 aaron

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 196

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.535603 lsgold7
2 -0.531094 dowser
3 -0.515042 slobodan
4 -0.505919 rbertoni01
5 -0.505130 petth
6 -0.488024 azureskai
7 -0.465217 dukeglk
8 -0.465217 sandyr
9 -0.462761 MAA414
10 -0.455393 hyperionok
11 -0.449252 Lucky
12 -0.449252 maxmersinger

Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 100

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.180665 einsteinjs
2 -0.180665 slobodan
3 -0.180665 agent23421
4 -0.180465 redacted
5 -0.180313 jkbick
6 -0.180160 Sjens
7 -0.180065 scholarandcat
8 -0.179865 superfrog
9 -0.178722 austerity
10 -0.178046 Jean-Pierre
11 -0.177560 dowser
12 -0.177417 Rene

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North Korea

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.303224 dowser
2 -1.151355 slobodan
3 -1.097375 petth
4 -0.925000 lsgold7
5 -0.898515 Anneinak
6 -0.856419 clinton
7 -0.856025 austerity
8 -0.831951 cdob63
9 -0.785615 ravel
10 -0.761080 morrell
11 -0.711383 Sjens
12 -0.639944 einsteinjs

Open: 3

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
clinton Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 18
Sjens Yes 20
petth Yes 25
lsgold7 Yes 51
ravel Yes 55
austerity Yes 70
morrell Yes 70
dowser Yes 85
Anneinak Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
einsteinjs Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 58 61

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Anneinak Yes 0
dowser Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Sjens Yes 1
clinton Yes 1
einsteinjs Yes 2
morrell Yes 4
ravel Yes 4
lsgold7 Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 13
austerity Yes 15
petth Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 8 8

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 12
petth Yes 25
ravel Yes 28
cdob63 Yes 41
lsgold7 Yes 51
dowser Yes 55
morrell Yes 75
Anneinak Yes 88
einsteinjs Yes 88
austerity Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
clinton Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 63 67

Russia

Status Question
Finished Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?
Finished How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Finished Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?
Finished Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?
Running How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Running Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Running Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Running Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
Running Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Running Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Running Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Running Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Running How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

Closed: 4

Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 43

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.752141 Wagle
2 -0.464329 jeremylichtman
3 -0.464329 mrcrea
4 -0.444566 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.413391 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.349279 Manfred
7 -0.309641 Jay R
8 -0.304954 vjp22
9 -0.298704 hyperionok
10 -0.297141 skepticalforecaster
11 -0.293516 Hideous Cheese Blunder
12 -0.286829 Konrad

How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a Plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 92

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.580368 Falconer
2 -1.164118 TVANKSTA
3 -1.097651 fleppy
4 -1.094109 fewchur
5 -1.051400 farmorit
6 -1.047451 put3000
7 -1.042868 shador13
8 -1.024900 klajoklis
9 -1.001400 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
10 -0.928796 tylerh
11 -0.917868 arnbold
12 -0.912963 gkiljan

Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 136

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.901566 slobodan
2 -0.892945 Falconer
3 -0.887849 redacted
4 -0.875704 KSpain
5 -0.832600 CR
6 -0.826825 Ioana
7 -0.814321 mike97mike
8 -0.801566 qsmithtx
9 -0.788118 Titan7160
10 -0.767945 broflovsky
11 -0.761452 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.751652 controllerzhu

Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 96

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.102675 Falconer
2 -0.102675 einsteinjs
3 -0.102675 000
4 -0.102675 Rather Witless Design
5 -0.102675 dada
6 -0.102675 kormac
7 -0.102675 k13rkeg44rd
8 -0.102625 redacted
9 -0.102598 clinton
10 -0.102556 scholarandcat
11 -0.102506 cdob63
12 -0.102475 Raisinville

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Russia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.466399 malcmur
2 -1.144176 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.052872 slobodan
4 -0.330628 petth
5 -0.213984 000
6 -0.212760 cdob63
7 -0.101606 dominich
8 -0.072167 Spandrelbarca
9 -0.026780 mparrault

Open: 9

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan 0 0
patrickmeehan5 0 0
petth 0 20
Spandrelbarca 0 55
dominich 0 70
malcmur 0 75
cdob63 0 84
mparrault 0 85
petth All 0
dominich All 0
slobodan All 0
cdob63 All 0
patrickmeehan5 All 0
Spandrelbarca All 0
malcmur All 5
mparrault All 6
slobodan Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
patrickmeehan5 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
mparrault Between 1 and 5, inclusive 7
malcmur Between 1 and 5, inclusive 15
cdob63 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 15
dominich Between 1 and 5, inclusive 30
Spandrelbarca Between 1 and 5, inclusive 40
petth Between 1 and 5, inclusive 50
dominich More than five, but less than all 0
cdob63 More than five, but less than all 1
mparrault More than five, but less than all 2
malcmur More than five, but less than all 5
Spandrelbarca More than five, but less than all 5
petth More than five, but less than all 30
slobodan More than five, but less than all 100
patrickmeehan5 More than five, but less than all 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
0 49 49
All 1 1
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 20 20
More than five, but less than all 30 30

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
malcmur Yes 3
mparrault Yes 8
dominich Yes 10
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
patrickmeehan5 Yes 33
petth Yes 40
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 26 26

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
cdob63 Yes 22
Spandrelbarca Yes 25
dominich Yes 30
mparrault Yes 30
petth Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 39 39

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 0
dominich Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
petth Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 23 23

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 15
malcmur Yes 15
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
cdob63 Yes 30
mparrault Yes 30
dominich Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 90
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 44 44

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
petth Yes 35
cdob63 Yes 37
mparrault Yes 60
dominich Yes 65
malcmur Yes 70
patrickmeehan5 Yes 85
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 57 57

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 6
Spandrelbarca Yes 8
mparrault Yes 9
dominich Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 25
petth Yes 45
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 26 26

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan No 0
petth No 55
Spandrelbarca No 75
patrickmeehan5 No 90
mparrault No 95
cdob63 No 99
malcmur No 100
dominich No 100
malcmur Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
slobodan Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
mparrault Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 1
petth Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 10
malcmur Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 1
mparrault Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 4
patrickmeehan5 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 25
petth Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 35
slobodan Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
No 77 77
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 1 1
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 22 22

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
patrickmeehan5 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
dominich At least one-half but less than two-thirds 40
petth At least one-half but less than two-thirds 55
Spandrelbarca At least one-half but less than two-thirds 65
mparrault At least one-half but less than two-thirds 73
malcmur At least one-half but less than two-thirds 75
cdob63 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 96
patrickmeehan5 At least two-thirds of all seats 0
cdob63 At least two-thirds of all seats 4
malcmur At least two-thirds of all seats 5
mparrault At least two-thirds of all seats 20
petth At least two-thirds of all seats 25
Spandrelbarca At least two-thirds of all seats 35
dominich At least two-thirds of all seats 60
slobodan At least two-thirds of all seats 100
dominich Less than half 0
slobodan Less than half 0
cdob63 Less than half 0
Spandrelbarca Less than half 0
mparrault Less than half 7
petth Less than half 20
malcmur Less than half 20
patrickmeehan5 Less than half 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
At least one-half but less than two-thirds 50 51
At least two-thirds of all seats 31 31
Less than half 18 18

Sports

Status Question
Finished Who will win the World Series?
Running Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Running Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?

Closed: 1

Who will win the World Series?
Branch Answer
A team from the American League Yes
A team from the National League No

# Forecasters: 191

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.901973 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.884169 Mroochyslav
4 -0.875624 jeremylichtman
5 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.850351 sawyerwhip
7 -0.850351 BenP
8 -0.850351 joenb
9 -0.850351 ShotintheDark
10 -0.838176 cbrophy
11 -0.833805 Gor999
12 -0.820896 BestGuess

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Sports

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
3 -0.731624 Delorean
4 -0.503747 dada
5 -0.411260 khoshea
6 -0.392714 yaifuz26
7 -0.375078 KSpain
8 -0.344351 ravel
9 -0.315791 000
10 -0.264533 Davidoff400
11 -0.237624 JP
12 -0.047805 kormac

Open: 2

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Davidoff400 Yes 55
ravel Yes 93
yaifuz26 Yes 95
KSpain Yes 95
dada Yes 99
slobodan Yes 99
khoshea Yes 99
JP Yes 100
Delorean Yes 100
kormac Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 94 94

Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
yaifuz26 Yes 15
dada Yes 15
ravel Yes 21
JP Yes 25
kormac Yes 40
KSpain Yes 50
patrickmeehan5 Yes 50
Davidoff400 Yes 55
Delorean Yes 60
khoshea Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 37 36

Syria

Status Question
Finished Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?
Finished As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Finished Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?
Running Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Running Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
Running Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Running Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Running When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Running Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?

Closed: 3

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 111

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.202808 Anneinak
2 -0.202808 cmeinel
3 -0.202808 Falconer
4 -0.202808 einsteinjs
5 -0.202808 September
6 -0.202808 clinton
7 -0.202808 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.202808 000
9 -0.202808 Hammer Time
10 -0.202808 dowser
11 -0.202808 Agent0090
12 -0.202808 madre

As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Branch Answer
1 million or more Yes
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive No
Less than 560,000 No
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million No

# Forecasters: 328

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.495237 slobodan
2 -1.475237 thomas.r
3 -1.375237 Jamison
4 -1.272437 vasil
5 -1.257445 Cdrapp
6 -1.113237 jimmccue
7 -1.085793 Rhysbros
8 -1.062117 afoyfs
9 -0.998537 jeremylichtman
10 -0.974437 zwzhang
11 -0.906837 jimglynn
12 -0.882152 lydia.albanis

Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 586

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.077117 UnderwaterPutin
2 -0.077117 dominich
3 -0.077117 grossz18
4 -0.077117 Heffalump
5 -0.077117 cmeinel
6 -0.077117 Falconer
7 -0.077117 einsteinjs
8 -0.077117 Khalid
9 -0.077117 vernscot
10 -0.077117 Delorean
11 -0.077117 slobodan
12 -0.077117 Rebel ran riot

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Syria

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.603922 Raisinville
2 -0.598925 Jean-Pierre
3 -0.526596 Anneinak
4 -0.399234 000
5 -0.274495 ckruger
6 -0.258114 cdob63

Open: 6

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 1
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 26
Raisinville Yes 55
Anneinak Yes 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 30 11

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
ckruger Yes 0
Raisinville Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 2
Anneinak Yes 4
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 1 1

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Raisinville Yes 0
Anneinak Yes 29
Jean-Pierre Yes 60
ckruger Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 66
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 44 67

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Raisinville Yes 0
Anneinak Yes 4
ckruger Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 8
cdob63 Yes 13
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 6 9

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Before 13 March 2016 0
ckruger Before 13 March 2016 0
cdob63 Before 13 March 2016 0
Raisinville Before 13 March 2016 0
Anneinak Before 13 March 2016 4
ckruger Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
Raisinville Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
cdob63 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 8
Jean-Pierre Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 13
Anneinak Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 48
Anneinak Not before 1 July 2016 48
Jean-Pierre Not before 1 July 2016 87
cdob63 Not before 1 July 2016 92
ckruger Not before 1 July 2016 98
Raisinville Not before 1 July 2016 98
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Before 13 March 2016 1 0
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 15 8
Not before 1 July 2016 85 92

Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Raisinville Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
Anneinak Yes 50
cdob63 Yes 65
ckruger Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 41 48

US Presidential election

Status Question
Finished Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?
Finished Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?
Finished Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Finished Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Finished Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Finished After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Finished After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Running Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Running Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Running Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Running Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Running (Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Running Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Running Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Running Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?

Closed: 8

Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 302

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.283507 donmars
2 -0.283342 einsteinjs
3 -0.282137 The Brown Recluse
4 -0.281471 Buffalo
5 -0.277822 Lucky
6 -0.277822 LeftCoastRightBrain
7 -0.277822 Swede
8 -0.277822 BestGuess
9 -0.277822 Atyler83
10 -0.272890 mmccaule
11 -0.272890 VagabondJim
12 -0.272890 usajvbueno

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 420

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.282756 JeanP
2 -0.277756 Jonah B52
3 -0.275592 arnbold
4 -0.275035 redacted
5 -0.271562 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.267830 Asteras
7 -0.267830 Rebel ran riot
8 -0.267636 SteveBoothButterfield
9 -0.264815 Spandrelbarca
10 -0.264099 legant
11 -0.264099 JoeLakeBSJ2LC
12 -0.264099 WGlazer

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 1765

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.500981 richtyge
2 -0.494507 hoopengarners
3 -0.494507 gmyu
4 -0.493134 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.490986 mayflower
6 -0.490986 Woodasch
7 -0.490986 legant
8 -0.490986 JRoy
9 -0.490986 Dougefresh
10 -0.489648 PowerQuilter
11 -0.488592 Hammer Time
12 -0.488592 scientifics

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump No
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz Yes

# Forecasters: 1086

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.240460 maxharris
2 -2.944160 austerity
3 -2.853260 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -2.816960 moscow25
5 -2.794593 bdenison
6 -2.740827 sh517
7 -2.709160 mattdabrowski
8 -2.707493 jcurry1
9 -2.665827 budwiser
10 -2.654160 taylorcp
11 -2.654160 web
12 -2.654160 anthony_nyc

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes
Martin O Malley No

# Forecasters: 543

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.034374 slobodan
2 -1.034374 Rhysbros
3 -1.034374 AlexisTocqueville
4 -1.034374 JHH
5 -1.032207 Pinch_Benedict
6 -1.031607 dkc
7 -1.026674 BlindWilliam
8 -1.025207 Skybullet
9 -1.019674 einsteinjs
10 -1.017507 Vuk_Vukovic
11 -0.977607 lsgold7
12 -0.966874 argon1

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 711

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.350271 slobodan
2 -3.350271 alistaircookie
3 -3.350271 AlexisTocqueville
4 -3.349302 ckruger
5 -3.345471 taxesa1
6 -3.342860 jwildberger
7 -3.320271 ThreePredictor
8 -3.318713 Dima K
9 -3.318671 Vuk_Vukovic
10 -3.315450 RickRock
11 -3.314902 Iainhen99
12 -3.310271 Mroochyslav

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes

# Forecasters: 372

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.734940 Anneinak
2 -0.734940 clinton
3 -0.734940 Jean-Pierre
4 -0.734940 dowser
5 -0.734940 slobodan
6 -0.734940 scholarandcat
7 -0.734940 chackpal
8 -0.734940 DChristensen
9 -0.734940 willmartin
10 -0.734940 Ice_Panther7
11 -0.734940 Stmrb05
12 -0.734877 MaRott

After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 637

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.102965 slobodan
2 -2.102965 alistaircookie
3 -2.097849 clinton
4 -2.081912 DChristensen
5 -2.060333 Dwight Smith
6 -2.055070 swanked
7 -2.011933 Aches
8 -2.004691 Stmrb05
9 -1.972965 dowser
10 -1.972123 BlueSteel
11 -1.959617 Jean-Pierre
12 -1.952438 Laeve

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster US Presidential election

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -8.726924 vox vox
2 -8.611191 ckruger
3 -7.675277 cdob63
4 -7.323830 000
5 -7.108089 ravel
6 -7.033450 dada
7 -6.600029 Cora
8 -6.342771 ESR
9 -6.318066 lindsey91
10 -5.954078 dowser
11 -5.465459 GJDrew
12 -5.148412 tomh

Open: 8

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
vox vox Ben Carson 0
lindsey91 Ben Carson 0
dada Ben Carson 0
GJDrew Ben Carson 0
ESR Ben Carson 0
ckruger Ben Carson 0
dowser Ben Carson 0
ravel Ben Carson 0
cdob63 Ben Carson 0
Cora Ben Carson 0
tomh Ben Carson 0
vox vox Carly Fiorina 0
lindsey91 Carly Fiorina 0
dada Carly Fiorina 0
GJDrew Carly Fiorina 0
ESR Carly Fiorina 0
ckruger Carly Fiorina 0
dowser Carly Fiorina 0
ravel Carly Fiorina 0
cdob63 Carly Fiorina 0
Cora Carly Fiorina 0
tomh Carly Fiorina 0
lindsey91 Donald Trump 46
tomh Donald Trump 55
ESR Donald Trump 65
Cora Donald Trump 65
GJDrew Donald Trump 66
cdob63 Donald Trump 69
vox vox Donald Trump 76
dowser Donald Trump 85
ckruger Donald Trump 90
ravel Donald Trump 90
dada Donald Trump 95
vox vox Jeb Bush 0
lindsey91 Jeb Bush 0
dada Jeb Bush 0
GJDrew Jeb Bush 0
ESR Jeb Bush 0
ckruger Jeb Bush 0
dowser Jeb Bush 0
ravel Jeb Bush 0
cdob63 Jeb Bush 0
Cora Jeb Bush 0
tomh Jeb Bush 0
dada Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
dowser Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
cdob63 Marco Rubio 0
tomh Marco Rubio 0
vox vox Marco Rubio 2
GJDrew Marco Rubio 8
ESR Marco Rubio 8
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 9
Cora Marco Rubio 15
dada None of the above 0
ckruger None of the above 0
Cora None of the above 0
tomh None of the above 0
vox vox None of the above 2
lindsey91 None of the above 9
ESR None of the above 9
cdob63 None of the above 9
GJDrew None of the above 10
ravel None of the above 10
dowser None of the above 15
dowser Ted Cruz 0
ravel Ted Cruz 0
dada Ted Cruz 5
ckruger Ted Cruz 10
GJDrew Ted Cruz 16
ESR Ted Cruz 18
vox vox Ted Cruz 20
Cora Ted Cruz 20
cdob63 Ted Cruz 22
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 36
tomh Ted Cruz 45
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Ben Carson 0 0
Carly Fiorina 0 0
Donald Trump 73 72
Jeb Bush 0 0
Marco Rubio 4 6
None of the above 6 5
Ted Cruz 17 17

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Bernie Sanders 0
cdob63 Bernie Sanders 0
vox vox Bernie Sanders 1
dada Bernie Sanders 5
dowser Bernie Sanders 5
lindsey91 Bernie Sanders 8
ESR Bernie Sanders 10
tomh Bernie Sanders 10
Cora Bernie Sanders 15
GJDrew Bernie Sanders 20
ravel Bernie Sanders 59
ravel Hillary Clinton 41
GJDrew Hillary Clinton 80
Cora Hillary Clinton 85
ESR Hillary Clinton 90
tomh Hillary Clinton 90
lindsey91 Hillary Clinton 92
dada Hillary Clinton 95
dowser Hillary Clinton 95
vox vox Hillary Clinton 99
ckruger Hillary Clinton 100
cdob63 Hillary Clinton 100
vox vox Martin O Malley 0
lindsey91 Martin O Malley 0
dada Martin O Malley 0
GJDrew Martin O Malley 0
ESR Martin O Malley 0
ckruger Martin O Malley 0
dowser Martin O Malley 0
ravel Martin O Malley 0
cdob63 Martin O Malley 0
Cora Martin O Malley 0
tomh Martin O Malley 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Bernie Sanders 12 12
Hillary Clinton 88 88
Martin O Malley 0 0

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 60
ESR Yes 64
dowser Yes 65
tomh Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 81
lindsey91 Yes 85
Cora Yes 85
dada Yes 88
ravel Yes 89
vox vox Yes 90
ckruger Yes 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 80 79

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel A Democrat 33
GJDrew A Democrat 53
dowser A Democrat 55
ESR A Democrat 58
lindsey91 A Democrat 60
Cora A Democrat 65
tomh A Democrat 75
vox vox A Democrat 80
dada A Democrat 90
ckruger A Democrat 90
cdob63 A Democrat 92
cdob63 A Republican 8
dada A Republican 10
ckruger A Republican 10
vox vox A Republican 20
tomh A Republican 25
Cora A Republican 35
lindsey91 A Republican 40
ESR A Republican 42
GJDrew A Republican 44
dowser A Republican 45
ravel A Republican 58
vox vox Other 0
lindsey91 Other 0
dada Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Cora Other 0
tomh Other 0
GJDrew Other 3
ravel Other 9
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
A Democrat 68 69
A Republican 31 30
Other 1 1

(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Democrat 0
dowser Democrat 55
GJDrew Democrat 60
lindsey91 Democrat 63
ESR Democrat 66
dada Democrat 73
Cora Democrat 75
vox vox Democrat 85
ckruger Democrat 98
cdob63 Democrat 98
tomh Democrat 99
vox vox Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
ravel Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Cora Other 0
tomh Other 0
lindsey91 Other 1
GJDrew Other 5
dada Other 13
tomh Republican 1
ckruger Republican 2
cdob63 Republican 2
dada Republican 14
vox vox Republican 15
Cora Republican 25
ESR Republican 34
GJDrew Republican 35
lindsey91 Republican 36
dowser Republican 45
ravel Republican 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Democrat 70 73
Other 2 0
Republican 28 27

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 11
vox vox Yes 22
ESR Yes 30
ravel Yes 41
GJDrew Yes 55
dowser Yes 55
lindsey91 Yes 60
Cora Yes 60
dada Yes 65
tomh Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Yes 44 41

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Donald Trump 0
dada Donald Trump 25
ESR Donald Trump 37
vox vox Donald Trump 40
Cora Donald Trump 40
cdob63 Donald Trump 42
GJDrew Donald Trump 45
lindsey91 Donald Trump 53
dowser Donald Trump 53
ravel Donald Trump 53
tomh Donald Trump 60
dowser John Kasich 23
ravel John Kasich 35
lindsey91 John Kasich 38
tomh John Kasich 40
Cora John Kasich 50
GJDrew John Kasich 55
cdob63 John Kasich 58
vox vox John Kasich 60
ESR John Kasich 62
dada John Kasich 75
ckruger John Kasich 100
vox vox Marco Rubio 0
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 0
dada Marco Rubio 0
GJDrew Marco Rubio 0
ESR Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
cdob63 Marco Rubio 0
Cora Marco Rubio 0
tomh Marco Rubio 0
dowser Marco Rubio 6
vox vox Ted Cruz 0
dada Ted Cruz 0
GJDrew Ted Cruz 0
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
cdob63 Ted Cruz 0
tomh Ted Cruz 0
ESR Ted Cruz 1
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 9
Cora Ted Cruz 10
ravel Ted Cruz 12
dowser Ted Cruz 18
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Donald Trump 41 44
John Kasich 54 53
Marco Rubio 1 0
Ted Cruz 5 3

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
dowser Donald Trump 57
lindsey91 Donald Trump 60
ravel Donald Trump 65
GJDrew Donald Trump 70
Cora Donald Trump 70
ESR Donald Trump 73
tomh Donald Trump 75
vox vox Donald Trump 90
cdob63 Donald Trump 93
dada Donald Trump 95
ckruger Donald Trump 100
vox vox John Kasich 0
lindsey91 John Kasich 0
dada John Kasich 0
GJDrew John Kasich 0
ESR John Kasich 0
ckruger John Kasich 0
dowser John Kasich 0
cdob63 John Kasich 0
Cora John Kasich 0
tomh John Kasich 0
ravel John Kasich 5
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
dada Marco Rubio 5
cdob63 Marco Rubio 6
vox vox Marco Rubio 9
ravel Marco Rubio 10
Cora Marco Rubio 15
dowser Marco Rubio 22
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 25
ESR Marco Rubio 25
tomh Marco Rubio 25
GJDrew Marco Rubio 30
dada Ted Cruz 0
GJDrew Ted Cruz 0
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
tomh Ted Cruz 0
vox vox Ted Cruz 1
cdob63 Ted Cruz 1
ESR Ted Cruz 2
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 15
Cora Ted Cruz 15
ravel Ted Cruz 20
dowser Ted Cruz 21
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/10/16 Prior answer 3/7/16
Donald Trump 77 74
John Kasich 0 0
Marco Rubio 16 21
Ted Cruz 7 5

GITREP 7MAR16pm

gettyimages-187884860

Africa

Closed: 1

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Branch Answer
Amama Mbabazi No
Kizza Besigye No
None of the above No
Yoweri Museveni Yes

# Forecasters: 223

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.503043 Clairvoyance
2 -0.503043 jlodge01
3 -0.502808 einsteinjs
4 -0.502691 Modog814
5 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
6 -0.502408 cdob63
7 -0.502319 GeneH
8 -0.501905 redacted
9 -0.500808 Scooozai
10 -0.499574 clinton
11 -0.499188 chackpal
12 -0.497932 paul_the_octopus

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.502808 einsteinjs
2 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.502408 cdob63
4 -0.500808 Scooozai
5 -0.499574 clinton
6 -0.499188 chackpal
7 -0.496870 000
8 -0.496070 Sneaky_Pete531
9 -0.493732 petth
10 -0.468332 dkc
11 -0.434077 AlexisTocqueville
12 -0.433505 Sjens

Open: 3

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
einsteinjs Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
clinton Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
dkc Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 1
chackpal Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 3
cdob63 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 7
AlexisTocqueville Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 15
Sneaky_Pete531 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 30
Scooozai Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 33
Spandrelbarca Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 34
petth Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 35
petth Less than 10,000 50
Scooozai Less than 10,000 55
Sneaky_Pete531 Less than 10,000 60
Spandrelbarca Less than 10,000 66
AlexisTocqueville Less than 10,000 85
cdob63 Less than 10,000 92
chackpal Less than 10,000 96
dkc Less than 10,000 99
Sjens Less than 10,000 100
einsteinjs Less than 10,000 100
clinton Less than 10,000 100
Sjens More than 15,000 0
AlexisTocqueville More than 15,000 0
dkc More than 15,000 0
einsteinjs More than 15,000 0
clinton More than 15,000 0
Spandrelbarca More than 15,000 0
chackpal More than 15,000 1
cdob63 More than 15,000 1
Sneaky_Pete531 More than 15,000 10
Scooozai More than 15,000 12
petth More than 15,000 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 14 15
Less than 10,000 82 82
More than 15,000 4 3
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 21
cdob63 Yes 29
einsteinjs Yes 38
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 43
chackpal Yes 50
clinton Yes 51
AlexisTocqueville Yes 55
petth Yes 60
Spandrelbarca Yes 65
Scooozai Yes 85
dkc Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 53 53
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 1
dkc Yes 3
AlexisTocqueville Yes 5
clinton Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 7
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 10
chackpal Yes 13
einsteinjs Yes 14
Scooozai Yes 35
petth Yes 50
Spandrelbarca Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 20 20

Asia

Closed: 1

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.972678 WangShuo
3 -0.855420 geoseattleite
4 -0.708725 Van der MEI
5 -0.541507 KateWestmoreland
6 -0.519885 A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams
7 -0.500404 lsgold7
8 -0.493038 TVANKSTA
9 -0.479074 xieweisen
10 -0.460404 dr.cankraut
11 -0.460065 Shahram33
12 -0.365233 teresalam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.288985 Jean-Pierre
3 -0.264130 cdob63
4 -0.257545 000
5 -0.257445 ravel
6 -0.232613 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.220289 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.209220 malcmur
9 -0.199880 mparrault
10 -0.193285 boz
11 -0.145470 sh517
12 -0.070631 kormac

Open: 3

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
ravel Yes 71
malcmur Yes 80
kormac Yes 80
boz Yes 85
Spandrelbarca Yes 89
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
mparrault Yes 95
cdob63 Yes 99
sh517 Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 87 87
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
cdob63 Yes 9
malcmur Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 15
mparrault Yes 18
boz Yes 19
Jean-Pierre Yes 22
sh517 Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 25 25
Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
sh517 Grace Poe 0
slobodan Grace Poe 0
cdob63 Grace Poe 2
malcmur Grace Poe 20
boz Grace Poe 22
mparrault Grace Poe 25
Jean-Pierre Grace Poe 30
ravel Grace Poe 33
Spandrelbarca Grace Poe 35
kormac Grace Poe 40
patrickmeehan5 Grace Poe 49
slobodan Jejomar Binay 11
Jean-Pierre Jejomar Binay 30
kormac Jejomar Binay 30
ravel Jejomar Binay 34
Spandrelbarca Jejomar Binay 35
boz Jejomar Binay 37
mparrault Jejomar Binay 39
patrickmeehan5 Jejomar Binay 51
malcmur Jejomar Binay 60
cdob63 Jejomar Binay 65
sh517 Jejomar Binay 100
sh517 Mar Roxas 0
malcmur Mar Roxas 0
slobodan Mar Roxas 0
patrickmeehan5 Mar Roxas 0
ravel Mar Roxas 2
Spandrelbarca Mar Roxas 5
mparrault Mar Roxas 7
cdob63 Mar Roxas 8
Jean-Pierre Mar Roxas 10
boz Mar Roxas 13
kormac Mar Roxas 20
sh517 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
malcmur Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Jean-Pierre Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
slobodan Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
kormac Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
cdob63 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
patrickmeehan5 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Spandrelbarca Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
mparrault Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
boz Miriam Defensor-Santiago 2
ravel Miriam Defensor-Santiago 2
sh517 None of the above 0
malcmur None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
slobodan None of the above 0
kormac None of the above 0
ravel None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
mparrault None of the above 1
boz None of the above 2
Spandrelbarca None of the above 5
sh517 Rodrigo Duterte 0
patrickmeehan5 Rodrigo Duterte 0
kormac Rodrigo Duterte 10
malcmur Rodrigo Duterte 20
Spandrelbarca Rodrigo Duterte 20
boz Rodrigo Duterte 24
cdob63 Rodrigo Duterte 25
mparrault Rodrigo Duterte 27
ravel Rodrigo Duterte 29
Jean-Pierre Rodrigo Duterte 30
slobodan Rodrigo Duterte 89
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Grace Poe 23 22
Jejomar Binay 45 42
Mar Roxas 6 6
Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0 0
None of the above 1 1
Rodrigo Duterte 25 29

Capital controls

Closed: 10

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 55

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.760930 mc77
2 -0.735999 brazilianwitchcraft
3 -0.680486 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -0.621344 fchoe
5 -0.612430 Jamison
6 -0.512430 pb41
7 -0.475930 Falconer
8 -0.471430 afoyfs
9 -0.442875 banda311
10 -0.420097 Mikatec
11 -0.403430 Khalid
12 -0.402097 bconlee
Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 175

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.284685 Peter Katzenfisch
2 -0.281174 tumbleweed
3 -0.278442 Rebel ran riot
4 -0.274153 974david
5 -0.259251 gust
6 -0.249651 Anneinak
7 -0.244319 Agent0090
8 -0.241672 clinton
9 -0.240093 darius.hinton
10 -0.237868 donmars
11 -0.232025 Randy
12 -0.222495 dada
Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 94

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.272006 Paul Theron
2 -0.261711 jeremylichtman
3 -0.257041 Dwight Smith
4 -0.255736 PinyonCyn
5 -0.255723 llanchav
6 -0.255463 000
7 -0.253607 Asteras
8 -0.251375 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.249679 Falconer
10 -0.249569 BlockHead
11 -0.249350 Manfred
12 -0.247481 slobodan
Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.217195 Reynard
2 -0.210510 PinyonCyn
3 -0.210313 Falconer
4 -0.208338 bmiller
5 -0.203094 000
6 -0.197395 Darren
7 -0.195541 Oracle
8 -0.192805 rjuarbe
9 -0.192805 llanchav
10 -0.192805 bill l
11 -0.192421 Dwight Smith
12 -0.189526 BlockHead
Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 579

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.455791 eightball
2 -0.452291 Bob Woods
3 -0.450841 briannbarbour
4 -0.450595 Chiyouen
5 -0.445891 harshabn
6 -0.445891 hn7815
7 -0.445597 patrickmeehan5
8 -0.443119 nc.ch
9 -0.443119 Picasso1387
10 -0.438247 Falconer
11 -0.431191 Ron
12 -0.431191 dyco
Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 112

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.421854 GP Jim
2 -0.416593 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.411894 lookitsKB
4 -0.406159 donmars
5 -0.402262 gearhart5k
6 -0.400807 iajski
7 -0.397209 Doina
8 -0.396262 ambidextrous
9 -0.382315 jnord
10 -0.377525 davecrosby
11 -0.377525 thalt123
12 -0.377525 Garyland
Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 127

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.528685 Manfred
2 -0.519695 PetaBajt
3 -0.500274 drbooze
4 -0.497586 dada
5 -0.495485 LisinHvost
6 -0.495485 CRaazi
7 -0.470906 Rote
8 -0.465380 Somchai A
9 -0.454093 MarkBadger
10 -0.438531 GeneH
11 -0.429853 fightin bronco
12 -0.423695 Minnesota71
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 101

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.082346 Anneinak
2 -0.082346 DariusX
3 -0.082346 Raisinville
4 -0.082346 Spandrelbarca
5 -0.082346 ckruger
6 -0.082346 redacted
7 -0.082346 Gleb_Kabanov
8 -0.082346 luzkannon
9 -0.082346 rockytop00
10 -0.082346 kormac
11 -0.082346 CalMotoMal
12 -0.082346 Free-thinker
Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Branch Answer
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Yes
Someone else from Europe No
Someone from outside Europe No

# Forecasters: 277

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.678659 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.678659 RedHarris
3 -0.670050 einsteinjs
4 -0.668659 Travist
5 -0.660536 kormac
6 -0.651727 AjzakN
7 -0.649459 PaulLynch
8 -0.648659 15
9 -0.643423 alistaircookie
10 -0.642159 malcmur
11 -0.641236 dkc
12 -0.631955 Srzaua
How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Branch Answer
Four No
None No
One No
Three No
Two Yes

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.988249 einsteinjs
2 -0.984349 z0k
3 -0.984182 gkamstra
4 -0.982182 Sjens
5 -0.981382 alistaircookie
6 -0.980449 sonac36
7 -0.978982 Khalid
8 -0.978982 fifty-sixty
9 -0.978982 Overtheriver
10 -0.978982 searchlight
11 -0.978982 Persistanceofmemory
12 -0.974049 DariusX

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.458420 000
2 -2.282963 cdob63
3 -1.825863 ravel
4 -1.684331 patrickmeehan5
5 -1.414834 kormac
6 -1.342902 mparrault

Open: 7

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 15
ravel Yes 17
mparrault Yes 20
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 32 32
Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 4
kormac Yes 5
ravel Yes 7
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 3 4
Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 4
mparrault Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 60
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 14 15
Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 19
mparrault Yes 25
kormac Yes 30
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 17 19
How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Above 75 0
ravel Above 75 2
mparrault Above 75 11
kormac Above 75 25
patrickmeehan5 Above 75 69
kormac Between 51 and 60, inclusive 3
patrickmeehan5 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
mparrault Between 51 and 60, inclusive 21
ravel Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
cdob63 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 26
patrickmeehan5 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 20
mparrault Between 61 and 75, inclusive 60
ravel Between 61 and 75, inclusive 68
kormac Between 61 and 75, inclusive 70
cdob63 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 74
cdob63 In the top 50 0
patrickmeehan5 In the top 50 1
kormac In the top 50 2
ravel In the top 50 5
mparrault In the top 50 8
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Above 75 21 23
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 17 13
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 58 62
In the top 50 3 2
Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
ravel Yes 2
kormac Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 4 4
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 71
ravel Yes 77
patrickmeehan5 Yes 80
kormac Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 76 75

China

Closed: 2

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 148

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.183613 Easy Miles
2 -0.182941 Paul Theron
3 -0.179515 Spandrelbarca
4 -0.170171 PinyonCyn
5 -0.166687 000
6 -0.166441 Matt
7 -0.163613 Darren
8 -0.160171 Xu
9 -0.158833 dylanjones
10 -0.150826 Roosevelt
11 -0.146728 slobodan
12 -0.145987 hyperionok
Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 182

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.340406 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.335406 Lucky
3 -0.334716 redacted
4 -0.332039 madre
5 -0.330305 ckruger
6 -0.323263 dkc
7 -0.319087 DMOzone
8 -0.313338 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.312933 slobodan
10 -0.294619 jkbick
11 -0.294059 sh517
12 -0.293331 000

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.470521 madre
2 -0.460018 000
3 -0.459661 slobodan
4 -0.426133 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.415508 alistaircookie
6 -0.412462 Lucky
7 -0.410775 ckruger
8 -0.402072 klin
9 -0.389949 cmeinel
10 -0.362608 cdob63
11 -0.354234 Buck Clemons
12 -0.339882 mparrault

Open: 3

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel Yes 1
ckruger Yes 5
Buck Clemons Yes 10
klin Yes 12
Jean-Pierre Yes 21
alistaircookie Yes 33
mparrault Yes 35
cdob63 Yes 55
madre Yes 68
Lucky Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 38 39
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Lucky Yes 1
ckruger Yes 3
alistaircookie Yes 3
klin Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
Buck Clemons Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 10
Jean-Pierre Yes 14
madre Yes 28
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 17 17
Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel No 47
klin No 60
Jean-Pierre No 60
Lucky No 70
Buck Clemons No 85
mparrault No 85
cdob63 No 97
madre No 98
alistaircookie No 98
ckruger No 99
slobodan No 100
Buck Clemons Yes, with both 0
ckruger Yes, with both 0
cmeinel Yes, with both 0
slobodan Yes, with both 0
madre Yes, with both 0
cdob63 Yes, with both 0
Lucky Yes, with both 0
alistaircookie Yes, with both 2
mparrault Yes, with both 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, with both 3
klin Yes, with both 25
slobodan Yes, with only Iran 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Iran 0
ckruger Yes, with only Iran 1
madre Yes, with only Iran 1
cdob63 Yes, with only Iran 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Iran 10
mparrault Yes, with only Iran 10
klin Yes, with only Iran 15
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Iran 23
Lucky Yes, with only Iran 30
cmeinel Yes, with only Iran 53
klin Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
ckruger Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cmeinel Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
slobodan Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cdob63 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
Lucky Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
madre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
mparrault Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 14
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
No 82 82
Yes, with both 3 3
Yes, with only Iran 13 13
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 2 2

EU

Closed: 2

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 89

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.157904 Falconer
2 -0.151375 cdob63
3 -0.151312 clinton
4 -0.148035 mike97mike
5 -0.145732 malcmur
6 -0.145535 scholarandcat
7 -0.145353 000
8 -0.144310 patrickmeehan5
9 -0.139261 dada
10 -0.139216 Lux
11 -0.139016 Hammer Time
12 -0.137692 mparrault
Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 429

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.580726 slobodan
2 -0.575320 drouq_
3 -0.547018 duth_forever
4 -0.545726 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.535726 marcbgoldberg
6 -0.530987 mayflower
7 -0.514668 searchlight
8 -0.511393 monique
9 -0.500726 CedricJ
10 -0.497226 Augustinas
11 -0.496351 scurcuru
12 -0.492341 jfm293c

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.690036 patrickmeehan5
2 -0.530723 Delorean
3 -0.487162 cdob63
4 -0.298233 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.295004 Rene
6 -0.285294 000
7 -0.262162 RCScheffers
8 -0.225466 JuliusKo
9 -0.195666 Anneinak
10 -0.189826 paul_the_octopus
11 -0.098943 Sneaky_Pete531
12 -0.067104 dominich

Open: 3

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers Both 0
paul_the_octopus Both 0
Sneaky_Pete531 Both 0
JuliusKo Both 0
dominich Both 0
Jean-Pierre Both 0
Delorean Both 0
Anneinak Both 0
Rene Both 0
cdob63 Both 0
patrickmeehan5 Both 80
Delorean Ciudadanos 0
Anneinak Ciudadanos 0
cdob63 Ciudadanos 1
Sneaky_Pete531 Ciudadanos 3
paul_the_octopus Ciudadanos 4
Jean-Pierre Ciudadanos 4
RCScheffers Ciudadanos 5
Rene Ciudadanos 5
patrickmeehan5 Ciudadanos 5
JuliusKo Ciudadanos 6
dominich Ciudadanos 15
patrickmeehan5 Neither 5
Sneaky_Pete531 Neither 84
dominich Neither 85
JuliusKo Neither 90
Jean-Pierre Neither 94
RCScheffers Neither 95
paul_the_octopus Neither 95
Rene Neither 95
cdob63 Neither 99
Delorean Neither 100
Anneinak Neither 100
RCScheffers Podemos 0
dominich Podemos 0
Delorean Podemos 0
Anneinak Podemos 0
Rene Podemos 0
cdob63 Podemos 0
paul_the_octopus Podemos 1
Jean-Pierre Podemos 2
JuliusKo Podemos 4
patrickmeehan5 Podemos 10
Sneaky_Pete531 Podemos 13
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Both 7 10
Ciudadanos 4 3
Neither 86 84
Podemos 3 3
Who will be the next mayor of London?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers None of the above 0
Sneaky_Pete531 None of the above 0
dominich None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
Delorean None of the above 0
Anneinak None of the above 0
Rene None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
paul_the_octopus None of the above 1
JuliusKo None of the above 1
JuliusKo Sadiq Khan 74
Sneaky_Pete531 Sadiq Khan 75
Jean-Pierre Sadiq Khan 75
Anneinak Sadiq Khan 75
RCScheffers Sadiq Khan 78
Rene Sadiq Khan 78
dominich Sadiq Khan 80
paul_the_octopus Sadiq Khan 86
Delorean Sadiq Khan 91
cdob63 Sadiq Khan 94
patrickmeehan5 Sadiq Khan 99
patrickmeehan5 Zac Goldsmith 1
cdob63 Zac Goldsmith 6
Delorean Zac Goldsmith 9
paul_the_octopus Zac Goldsmith 13
dominich Zac Goldsmith 20
RCScheffers Zac Goldsmith 22
Rene Zac Goldsmith 22
Sneaky_Pete531 Zac Goldsmith 25
JuliusKo Zac Goldsmith 25
Jean-Pierre Zac Goldsmith 25
Anneinak Zac Goldsmith 25
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
None of the above 0 0
Sadiq Khan 82 83
Zac Goldsmith 18 17
Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 55
RCScheffers Yes 58
Rene Yes 58
Anneinak Yes 66
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 75
JuliusKo Yes 80
dominich Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 80
paul_the_octopus Yes 83
Delorean Yes 95
patrickmeehan5 Yes 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 75 72

Entertainment

Closed: 4

Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 145

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.623068 RichStenberg
2 -0.587479 ben
3 -0.583794 jeremylichtman
4 -0.534189 Khalid
5 -0.517468 yankeeracer
6 -0.504694 Socrates
7 -0.498268 SmallTown Gal
8 -0.482305 ESR
9 -0.478389 patrickmeehan5
10 -0.470505 KokaV992
11 -0.468663 Slackline
12 -0.468663 matadams4u
Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 238

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.215373 piodzie
2 -0.215373 BestGuess
3 -0.215052 heinlager
4 -0.210786 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.210590 hyperionok
6 -0.210590 List9845
7 -0.210419 XanX
8 -0.210419 selkhet7
9 -0.210419 raullegaz
10 -0.210419 Predrag
11 -0.205878 Themistokles
12 -0.205878 JH_Bernard
Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Branch Answer
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser No
Laser Maze Jr. No
Makey Makey Classic No
Meccanoid G15 Yes
MiPosaur No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator No
i-loom No

# Forecasters: 160

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.460378 vkent
2 -1.359424 renatomt
3 -1.242494 albender
4 -1.153113 Graham88
5 -0.971340 janeanne
6 -0.961103 fifty-sixty
7 -0.886779 calebw
8 -0.873897 Magloghan
9 -0.870655 praedico
10 -0.870378 Minsky
11 -0.862222 Dima K
12 -0.846671 Dilamarter
Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Branch Answer
Bridge of Spies No
Brooklyn No
Mad Max: Fury Road No
Room No
Spotlight Yes
The Big Short No
The Martian No
The Revenant No

# Forecasters: 402

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.032620 slobodan
2 -1.634741 Mr.Macbeth
3 -1.507166 Potter
4 -1.496863 pablogabriels
5 -1.488378 acerock6
6 -1.444981 craigellan
7 -1.416951 Dima K
8 -1.399396 Costusinsights
9 -1.218123 dylbyl25
10 -1.157466 Scabe
11 -1.124422 Claudio
12 -1.109287 kbaker

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.209046 GJDrew
2 -1.595470 mparrault
3 -1.541718 patrickmeehan5
4 -1.505138 000
5 -1.391106 yaifuz26
6 -1.375077 cdob63
7 -1.023185 ravel
8 -0.244440 petth

Open: 6

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 4
ravel Yes 5
GJDrew Yes 11
petth Yes 25
yaifuz26 Yes 55
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 29 29
Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth All of the above will survive season 6 0
patrickmeehan5 All of the above will survive season 6 0
yaifuz26 All of the above will survive season 6 25
GJDrew All of the above will survive season 6 25
cdob63 All of the above will survive season 6 42
ravel All of the above will survive season 6 52
mparrault All of the above will survive season 6 54
ravel Carl 0
patrickmeehan5 Carl 0
mparrault Carl 3
GJDrew Carl 5
cdob63 Carl 14
yaifuz26 Carl 25
petth Carl 50
patrickmeehan5 Carol 0
yaifuz26 Carol 15
mparrault Carol 15
GJDrew Carol 18
ravel Carol 22
cdob63 Carol 34
petth Carol 50
petth Daryl 0
patrickmeehan5 Daryl 0
cdob63 Daryl 6
mparrault Daryl 7
yaifuz26 Daryl 20
ravel Daryl 22
GJDrew Daryl 26
yaifuz26 Glenn 0
petth Glenn 0
cdob63 Glenn 3
ravel Glenn 4
mparrault Glenn 20
GJDrew Glenn 26
patrickmeehan5 Glenn 99
petth Rick 0
GJDrew Rick 0
ravel Rick 0
cdob63 Rick 1
patrickmeehan5 Rick 1
mparrault Rick 1
yaifuz26 Rick 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
All of the above will survive season 6 28 28
Carl 14 14
Carol 22 22
Daryl 12 12
Glenn 22 22
Rick 3 2
Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 2
patrickmeehan5 Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
GJDrew Yes 35
yaifuz26 Yes 45
petth Yes 50
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 20 21
Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 0
petth Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
yaifuz26 Yes 65
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 24 24
Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 7
mparrault Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 11
GJDrew Yes 13
yaifuz26 Yes 15
petth Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 26 27
Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 25
mparrault Yes 35
ravel Yes 45
cdob63 Yes 68
yaifuz26 Yes 85
petth Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 65 66

Environment

Closed: 1

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 185

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 DariusX
2 -0.117004 000
3 -0.117004 Delorean
4 -0.117004 Clairvoyance
5 -0.117004 alistaircookie
6 -0.117004 tom.prigg
7 -0.117004 AlexisTocqueville
8 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
9 -0.116822 dkc
10 -0.116804 clinton
11 -0.116804 ravel
12 -0.116804 guesser

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 000
2 -0.117004 Delorean
3 -0.117004 alistaircookie
4 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
5 -0.116804 clinton
6 -0.116804 ravel
7 -0.115413 Khalid
8 -0.115413 REGallahue
9 -0.115413 argon1
10 -0.115076 morrell
11 -0.114458 cdob63
12 -0.106795 Amir

Open: 2

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 65
Amir Yes 65
alistaircookie Yes 66
REGallahue Yes 72
Khalid Yes 75
morrell Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 84
Gfrizzi Yes 85
Delorean Yes 85
clinton Yes 89
argon1 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 78 74
Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
argon1 Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
alistaircookie Yes 0
Gfrizzi Yes 2
REGallahue Yes 3
Delorean Yes 4
cdob63 Yes 4
morrell Yes 5
Amir Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
Khalid Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 4 4

Iran

Closed: 9

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 201

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.448675 Bill
2 -0.427661 alterego
3 -0.427661 Socrates
4 -0.427661 Gregory
5 -0.423900 gust
6 -0.416900 Ron
7 -0.414039 thomas.r
8 -0.410052 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.408277 Delorean
10 -0.396248 Jay R
11 -0.389146 jatreit
12 -0.388274 Poorforecaster
Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Branch Answer
No Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand No

# Forecasters: 86

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.814923 Falconer
2 -0.814547 GeneH
3 -0.804947 Wagle
4 -0.785418 johneyhb
5 -0.726712 einsteinjs
6 -0.726523 dms
7 -0.684241 Manfred
8 -0.663959 wlmsears
9 -0.651253 Raisinville
10 -0.642006 Dwight Smith
11 -0.574429 ESR
12 -0.559912 GJDrew
Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 69

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.125324 000
2 -0.125324 ravel
3 -0.125006 cdob63
4 -0.120986 donmars
5 -0.120324 jnord
6 -0.119806 UnderwaterPutin
7 -0.119806 Khalid
8 -0.117048 jatreit
9 -0.115524 gust
10 -0.111875 Anneinak
11 -0.108772 malcmur
12 -0.107889 GP Jim
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 37

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.566842 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.528271 Manfred
3 -0.521585 ESR
4 -0.488671 usajvbueno
5 -0.478985 donmars
6 -0.478985 jnord
7 -0.456957 Mroochyslav
8 -0.434699 clinton
9 -0.428985 Shahar
10 -0.428985 ZEUS
11 -0.420642 madre
12 -0.410414 Khalid
Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 122

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.188506 Agent0090
2 -0.188201 000
3 -0.185291 TVANKSTA
4 -0.185191 Khalid
5 -0.184458 jnord
6 -0.182363 cdob63
7 -0.180791 cmeinel
8 -0.180529 usajvbueno
9 -0.180529 GP Jim
10 -0.177358 sluggoman
11 -0.177358 JP
12 -0.176658 alistaircookie
Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 294

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.276187 slobodan
2 -0.275987 Asia
3 -0.275387 twodox
4 -0.267238 clinton
5 -0.266561 Rosario
6 -0.266057 mayflower
7 -0.264098 madre
8 -0.262787 ckruger
9 -0.262169 GoodieGoodie
10 -0.261974 JHooson
11 -0.261935 Manfred
12 -0.260767 cdob63
When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Branch Answer
Before 1 March 2016 Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive No
Not before 1 July 2016 No

# Forecasters: 146

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.958118 fifty-sixty
2 -1.925718 azharala
3 -1.851830 Wagle
4 -1.780945 Travist
5 -1.737334 Cansee
6 -1.645718 Shashank
7 -1.527385 Pachi
8 -1.474052 jsheth
9 -1.411223 john27
10 -1.395718 travelershope
11 -1.357334 jordanstone01
12 -1.339800 fatalis
Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 121

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.484838 slobodan
2 -0.484638 Kumar_Shah
3 -0.479838 Angturil
4 -0.479838 Ellieb
5 -0.475771 kormac
6 -0.473238 fron24
7 -0.464838 dcrosby51
8 -0.439838 Hadrain
9 -0.439838 rpirzada
10 -0.439838 Peyman2030
11 -0.439838 Mehrdad
12 -0.427704 arash
Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 200

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.193305 Falconer
2 -0.193064 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.191790 redacted
4 -0.189949 KSpain
5 -0.189321 cdob63
6 -0.188305 Travist
7 -0.188305 fron24
8 -0.188305 JohnH
9 -0.188305 theprof
10 -0.186455 phdork
11 -0.186258 Vicrums
12 -0.183146 Liam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.776117 mparrault
2 -1.654682 Khalid
3 -1.526950 cdob63
4 -1.473965 Jean-Pierre
5 -1.439449 slobodan
6 -1.391127 000
7 -1.158899 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.977923 petth
9 -0.864946 malcmur
10 -0.750579 ravel

Open: 6

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
ravel Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 11
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 1 1
Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 50
ravel Yes 67
mparrault Yes 75
Spandrelbarca Yes 85
Jean-Pierre Yes 99
cdob63 Yes 99
malcmur Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Khalid Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 86 81
Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 3
mparrault Yes 4
Khalid Yes 5
ravel Yes 11
petth Yes 35
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 7 7
Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Khalid No 10
petth No 45
Spandrelbarca No 50
cdob63 No 67
Jean-Pierre No 80
mparrault No 80
malcmur No 90
slobodan No 95
ravel No 98
slobodan Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
malcmur Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Jean-Pierre Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
cdob63 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 30
Khalid Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 35
petth Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 50
malcmur Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
cdob63 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 3
petth Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
slobodan Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
Khalid Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
No 68 68
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 19 19
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 13 13
Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 4
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
petth Yes 25
malcmur Yes 30
ravel Yes 31
mparrault Yes 36
Jean-Pierre Yes 55
Khalid Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 39 40
Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
mparrault Yes 1
malcmur Yes 5
ravel Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 9
petth Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 8 8

Latin America

Closed: 2

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Branch Answer
Daniel Scioli No
Mauricio Macri Yes
Sergio Massa No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.130566 Markmsl
3 -1.016340 achatkin
4 -1.012129 ogross
5 -0.916866 fleppy
6 -0.802839 mybaby4929
7 -0.802524 DSchultz
8 -0.775564 Dido
9 -0.745997 lindsey
10 -0.733760 Julius
11 -0.727012 danbazurto
12 -0.716208 974david
Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 138

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.604602 Chrisdo
2 -0.592102 DavidHume1776
3 -0.587352 Alex11
4 -0.579602 Mdmalseed
5 -0.576852 jkbick
6 -0.572102 starbright
7 -0.567102 geoseattleite
8 -0.554602 saesousa
9 -0.550227 drofter
10 -0.537102 malaquias
11 -0.529602 k13rkeg44rd
12 -0.525602 Jean-Pierre

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.470481 ogross
3 -1.254296 jkbick
4 -1.132342 Dima K
5 -0.972452 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.925410 Davidoff400
7 -0.869938 boz
8 -0.816969 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.748679 dada
10 -0.746782 PianoPicasso
11 -0.716270 yaifuz26
12 -0.704757 christianmaas

Open: 2

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
christianmaas Yes 1
dada Yes 1
Dima K Yes 1
PianoPicasso Yes 4
boz Yes 6
yaifuz26 Yes 15
jkbick Yes 20
ogross Yes 30
Davidoff400 Yes 35
patrickmeehan5 Yes 97
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 18 17
Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
dada Yes 1
slobodan Yes 1
Davidoff400 Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
ogross Yes 20
Dima K Yes 20
boz Yes 42
PianoPicasso Yes 45
jkbick Yes 50
patrickmeehan5 Yes 55
yaifuz26 Yes 65
christianmaas Yes 74
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 32 32

Markets

Closed: 4

What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?
Branch Answer
6.40 or more Yes
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive No
Less than 6.30 No
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 No

# Forecasters: 340

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.238701 Rebel ran riot
2 -1.213703 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.063215 brightling
4 -1.009150 Bill
5 -0.995167 Investmentitos
6 -0.931671 Darren
7 -0.921602 tfolkes
8 -0.893866 Doina
9 -0.873036 Mroochyslav
10 -0.818662 JJMLP
11 -0.810939 dkandersen
12 -0.810939 petergreen
What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?
Branch Answer
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive Yes
Less than $34.00 per barrel No
More than $40.00 per barrel No

# Forecasters: 636

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.000374 hoopengarners
2 -0.991402 kdcnett
3 -0.987197 schliemann
4 -0.958145 achatkin
5 -0.928879 lookitsKB
6 -0.892711 Diplo
7 -0.880094 Jamison
8 -0.879814 Araasatrian
9 -0.869518 domesticenginerd
10 -0.852150 JHooson
11 -0.843645 Jfoster
12 -0.834487 laz
Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?
Branch Answer
Adam Bain No
Anthony Noto No
Jack Dorsey Yes
No one will be named CEO before the end of the year No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 83

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.086151 Raisinville
2 -0.828338 clinton
3 -0.768231 malcmur
4 -0.754898 wlmsears
5 -0.597665 GJDrew
6 -0.589038 000
7 -0.543565 jumblies
8 -0.504658 KristiG
9 -0.503861 slobodan
10 -0.501565 Ziggysak
11 -0.492231 PlanetPanic
12 -0.474798 cdob63
Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.739582 Crown
2 -0.719789 asolismon
3 -0.711524 Rettic, MBA
4 -0.706855 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
5 -0.694582 bet10
6 -0.662792 Kyle_protho
7 -0.661111 Liza
8 -0.645409 mstlau
9 -0.637144 Mdmalseed
10 -0.637144 misti.graziani@gmail.com
11 -0.633218 Hector N
12 -0.633218 bodipb

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Markets

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.712499 patrickmeehan5
2 -1.444045 malcmur
3 -1.366373 slobodan
4 -1.216705 000
5 -1.178497 clinton
6 -1.029009 mparrault
7 -0.875545 dada
8 -0.875090 ravel
9 -0.765186 cdob63
10 -0.589390 jeremylichtman
11 -0.510196 praedico

Open: 4

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
patrickmeehan5 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0
cdob63 Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 32
malcmur Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 35
mparrault Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 38
praedico Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 40
clinton Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 42
dada Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 65
ravel Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 72
jeremylichtman Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 80
jeremylichtman Less than 125,000 0
dada Less than 125,000 0
praedico Less than 125,000 0
malcmur Less than 125,000 0
slobodan Less than 125,000 0
cdob63 Less than 125,000 0
clinton Less than 125,000 0
mparrault Less than 125,000 2
ravel Less than 125,000 7
patrickmeehan5 Less than 125,000 100
patrickmeehan5 More than 250,000 0
jeremylichtman More than 250,000 20
ravel More than 250,000 21
dada More than 250,000 35
clinton More than 250,000 58
praedico More than 250,000 60
mparrault More than 250,000 60
malcmur More than 250,000 65
cdob63 More than 250,000 68
slobodan More than 250,000 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 40 41
Less than 125,000 11 11
More than 250,000 49 48
Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
dada Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
jeremylichtman Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
malcmur Yes 2
mparrault Yes 2
praedico Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 21 21
Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
jeremylichtman Yes 0
dada Yes 0
praedico Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
ravel Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 12 12
Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
jeremylichtman Yes 1
cdob63 Yes 1
dada Yes 3
mparrault Yes 3
praedico Yes 5
malcmur Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
ravel Yes 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 5 5

Middle East

Closed: 1

How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey’s snap elections?
Branch Answer
A majority Yes
A plurality No
Not a plurality No

# Forecasters: 154

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.293748 okhope18
2 -1.234406 dcdiamond
3 -1.013102 KSpain
4 -0.965664 Raisinville
5 -0.944200 KaiserSoze
6 -0.885844 admiralporky
7 -0.832296 Kleto
8 -0.831651 markusbehrend
9 -0.822941 Lucky
10 -0.819554 Costarican
11 -0.819554 kksartorius
12 -0.817819 Stewart Edwards

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Middle East

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.885844 admiralporky
2 -0.741090 Amir
3 -0.592619 kormac
4 -0.503751 nls
5 -0.172201 Heffalump
6 -0.164852 Spandrelbarca
7 -0.156167 Clairvoyance
8 -0.148723 000
9 -0.135981 mparrault
10 -0.132594 cmeinel
11 -0.099533 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.096062 slobodan

Open: 5

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
admiralporky No 40
Jean-Pierre No 90
Heffalump No 90
cmeinel No 94
kormac No 95
Amir No 97
nls No 98
mparrault No 98
Spandrelbarca No 99
Clairvoyance No 100
slobodan No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 1
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 30
Clairvoyance Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
slobodan Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
kormac Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
mparrault Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0
nls Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1
Heffalump Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 3
Amir Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 3
cmeinel Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4
Jean-Pierre Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 5
admiralporky Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 30
admiralporky Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
nls Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
cmeinel Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
slobodan Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
kormac Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
mparrault Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Amir Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0
Heffalump Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 1
admiralporky Yes, Someone else 0
nls Yes, Someone else 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, Someone else 0
Clairvoyance Yes, Someone else 0
cmeinel Yes, Someone else 0
slobodan Yes, Someone else 0
kormac Yes, Someone else 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, Someone else 0
mparrault Yes, Someone else 0
Amir Yes, Someone else 0
Heffalump Yes, Someone else 1
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
No 91 91
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5 5
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 4 4
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0 0
Yes, Someone else 0 0
Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Amir Yes 0
Clairvoyance Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 7
nls Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
Heffalump Yes 13
Spandrelbarca Yes 13
admiralporky Yes 22
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 8 8
Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
admiralporky No 0
slobodan No 0
nls No 52
Heffalump No 68
kormac No 80
Clairvoyance No 85
mparrault No 91
Jean-Pierre No 92
cmeinel No 95
Spandrelbarca No 95
Amir No 100
Clairvoyance Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Amir Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
mparrault Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 1
nls Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 2
Heffalump Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 3
kormac Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5
admiralporky Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 15
slobodan Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 100
slobodan Yes, only Article 4 0
Amir Yes, only Article 4 0
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 4 5
cmeinel Yes, only Article 4 5
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 4 5
mparrault Yes, only Article 4 7
kormac Yes, only Article 4 10
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 4 15
Heffalump Yes, only Article 4 27
nls Yes, only Article 4 40
admiralporky Yes, only Article 4 80
Clairvoyance Yes, only Article 5 0
cmeinel Yes, only Article 5 0
slobodan Yes, only Article 5 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, only Article 5 0
Amir Yes, only Article 5 0
mparrault Yes, only Article 5 1
Jean-Pierre Yes, only Article 5 2
Heffalump Yes, only Article 5 2
admiralporky Yes, only Article 5 5
kormac Yes, only Article 5 5
nls Yes, only Article 5 6
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
No 69 68
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 12 12
Yes, only Article 4 18 18
Yes, only Article 5 2 2
Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Clairvoyance Yes 0
cmeinel Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 7
nls Yes 10
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
kormac Yes 30
Heffalump Yes 60
admiralporky Yes 70
Amir Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 34 35
Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 3
cmeinel Yes 20
mparrault Yes 45
Clairvoyance Yes 50
Heffalump Yes 50
Amir Yes 51
nls Yes 55
kormac Yes 75
admiralporky Yes 80
Spandrelbarca Yes 95
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 57 57

North America

Closed: 2

Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?
Branch Answer
Conservative No
Liberal Yes
New Democratic Party No
Other No

# Forecasters: 135

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.171706 Falconer
2 -1.102249 NHUNGUYEN
3 -0.847992 Raisinville
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.681578 GJDrew
6 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
7 -0.564292 Rote
8 -0.540049 einsteinjs
9 -0.524206 Khalid
10 -0.515710 p_odo
11 -0.515648 khoshea
12 -0.492153 patrickmeehan5
Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 325

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.150136 Rebel ran riot
2 -0.150136 Praxis
3 -0.150136 Jamison
4 -0.149936 flc79
5 -0.149780 mayflower
6 -0.147305 000
7 -0.147271 Dwight Smith
8 -0.146936 moria
9 -0.145351 DoctorWho
10 -0.145136 ricofig
11 -0.145136 GottaWearShades
12 -0.144873 Falconer

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.316579 Falconer
2 -0.847992 Raisinville
3 -0.756784 GJDrew
4 -0.744564 ed3
5 -0.627708 p_odo
6 -0.605262 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.589885 cdob63
8 -0.588755 Forecaster1971
9 -0.572298 Rote
10 -0.542590 einsteinjs
11 -0.537919 kbub
12 -0.515648 khoshea

Open: 0

North Korea

Closed: 3

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 260

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.594570 dowser
2 -0.588922 redacted
3 -0.577257 catmob
4 -0.576413 Konrad
5 -0.570101 Diplo
6 -0.565070 Anneinak
7 -0.559343 Rote
8 -0.558945 rebeccams
9 -0.557351 974david
10 -0.555618 Rebel ran riot
11 -0.550788 Hammer Time
12 -0.548445 aaron
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 196

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.535603 lsgold7
2 -0.531094 dowser
3 -0.515042 slobodan
4 -0.505919 rbertoni01
5 -0.505130 petth
6 -0.488024 azureskai
7 -0.465217 dukeglk
8 -0.465217 sandyr
9 -0.462761 MAA414
10 -0.455393 hyperionok
11 -0.449252 Lucky
12 -0.449252 maxmersinger
Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 100

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.180665 einsteinjs
2 -0.180665 slobodan
3 -0.180665 agent23421
4 -0.180465 redacted
5 -0.180313 jkbick
6 -0.180160 Sjens
7 -0.180065 scholarandcat
8 -0.179865 superfrog
9 -0.178722 austerity
10 -0.178046 Jean-Pierre
11 -0.177560 dowser
12 -0.177417 Rene

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster North Korea

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.303224 dowser
2 -1.151355 slobodan
3 -1.097375 petth
4 -0.925000 lsgold7
5 -0.898515 Anneinak
6 -0.856419 clinton
7 -0.856025 austerity
8 -0.831951 cdob63
9 -0.785615 ravel
10 -0.761080 morrell
11 -0.711383 Sjens
12 -0.639944 einsteinjs

Open: 3

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
clinton Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 18
Sjens Yes 20
petth Yes 25
ravel Yes 55
austerity Yes 70
morrell Yes 70
dowser Yes 85
lsgold7 Yes 87
Anneinak Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
einsteinjs Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 61 61
Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Anneinak Yes 0
dowser Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Sjens Yes 1
clinton Yes 1
einsteinjs Yes 2
morrell Yes 4
ravel Yes 4
lsgold7 Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 12
austerity Yes 15
petth Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 8 8
Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 18
petth Yes 25
ravel Yes 28
cdob63 Yes 41
dowser Yes 55
morrell Yes 75
Anneinak Yes 88
einsteinjs Yes 88
austerity Yes 95
lsgold7 Yes 96
slobodan Yes 100
clinton Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 67 62

Russia

Closed: 4

Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 43

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.752141 Wagle
2 -0.464329 jeremylichtman
3 -0.464329 mrcrea
4 -0.444566 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.413391 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.349279 Manfred
7 -0.309641 Jay R
8 -0.304954 vjp22
9 -0.298704 hyperionok
10 -0.297141 skepticalforecaster
11 -0.293516 Hideous Cheese Blunder
12 -0.286829 Konrad
How many seats in Poland’s Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a Plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 92

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.580368 Falconer
2 -1.164118 TVANKSTA
3 -1.097651 fleppy
4 -1.094109 fewchur
5 -1.051400 farmorit
6 -1.047451 put3000
7 -1.042868 shador13
8 -1.024900 klajoklis
9 -1.001400 Kevin “Rusty” Peters.
10 -0.928796 tylerh
11 -0.917868 arnbold
12 -0.912963 gkiljan
Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 136

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.901566 slobodan
2 -0.892945 Falconer
3 -0.887849 redacted
4 -0.875704 KSpain
5 -0.832600 CR
6 -0.826825 Ioana
7 -0.814321 mike97mike
8 -0.801566 qsmithtx
9 -0.788118 Titan7160
10 -0.767945 broflovsky
11 -0.761452 Jean-Pierre
12 -0.751652 controllerzhu
Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 96

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.102675 Falconer
2 -0.102675 einsteinjs
3 -0.102675 000
4 -0.102675 Rather Witless Design
5 -0.102675 dada
6 -0.102675 kormac
7 -0.102675 k13rkeg44rd
8 -0.102625 redacted
9 -0.102598 clinton
10 -0.102556 scholarandcat
11 -0.102506 cdob63
12 -0.102475 Raisinville

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Russia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.466399 malcmur
2 -1.144176 patrickmeehan5
3 -1.052872 slobodan
4 -0.330628 petth
5 -0.213984 000
6 -0.212760 cdob63
7 -0.101606 dominich
8 -0.072167 Spandrelbarca
9 -0.026780 mparrault

Open: 9

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan 0 0
patrickmeehan5 0 0
petth 0 20
Spandrelbarca 0 55
dominich 0 70
malcmur 0 75
cdob63 0 82
mparrault 0 85
petth All 0
dominich All 0
slobodan All 0
cdob63 All 0
patrickmeehan5 All 0
Spandrelbarca All 0
malcmur All 5
mparrault All 6
slobodan Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
patrickmeehan5 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 0
mparrault Between 1 and 5, inclusive 7
malcmur Between 1 and 5, inclusive 15
cdob63 Between 1 and 5, inclusive 17
dominich Between 1 and 5, inclusive 30
Spandrelbarca Between 1 and 5, inclusive 40
petth Between 1 and 5, inclusive 50
dominich More than five, but less than all 0
cdob63 More than five, but less than all 1
mparrault More than five, but less than all 2
malcmur More than five, but less than all 5
Spandrelbarca More than five, but less than all 5
petth More than five, but less than all 30
slobodan More than five, but less than all 100
patrickmeehan5 More than five, but less than all 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
0 48 49
All 1 1
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 20 20
More than five, but less than all 30 30
Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
malcmur Yes 3
mparrault Yes 8
dominich Yes 10
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
patrickmeehan5 Yes 33
petth Yes 40
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 26 26
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
cdob63 Yes 24
Spandrelbarca Yes 25
dominich Yes 30
mparrault Yes 30
petth Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 39 40
Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
malcmur Yes 0
dominich Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 20
petth Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 23 23
Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 15
malcmur Yes 15
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
cdob63 Yes 28
mparrault Yes 30
dominich Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 90
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 44 45
Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
petth Yes 35
cdob63 Yes 38
mparrault Yes 60
dominich Yes 65
malcmur Yes 70
patrickmeehan5 Yes 85
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 57 53
Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 6
Spandrelbarca Yes 8
mparrault Yes 9
dominich Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 25
petth Yes 45
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 26 26
Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan No 0
petth No 55
Spandrelbarca No 75
patrickmeehan5 No 90
mparrault No 95
cdob63 No 99
malcmur No 100
dominich No 100
malcmur Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
slobodan Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
Spandrelbarca Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0
mparrault Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 1
petth Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 10
malcmur Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
dominich Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0
cdob63 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 1
mparrault Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 4
patrickmeehan5 Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 25
petth Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 35
slobodan Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
No 77 76
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 1 2
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 22 22
How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
patrickmeehan5 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 0
dominich At least one-half but less than two-thirds 40
petth At least one-half but less than two-thirds 55
Spandrelbarca At least one-half but less than two-thirds 65
mparrault At least one-half but less than two-thirds 73
malcmur At least one-half but less than two-thirds 75
cdob63 At least one-half but less than two-thirds 96
patrickmeehan5 At least two-thirds of all seats 0
cdob63 At least two-thirds of all seats 4
malcmur At least two-thirds of all seats 5
mparrault At least two-thirds of all seats 20
petth At least two-thirds of all seats 25
Spandrelbarca At least two-thirds of all seats 35
dominich At least two-thirds of all seats 60
slobodan At least two-thirds of all seats 100
dominich Less than half 0
slobodan Less than half 0
cdob63 Less than half 0
Spandrelbarca Less than half 0
mparrault Less than half 7
petth Less than half 20
malcmur Less than half 20
patrickmeehan5 Less than half 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
At least one-half but less than two-thirds 50 51
At least two-thirds of all seats 31 31
Less than half 18 18

Sports

Closed: 1

Who will win the World Series?
Branch Answer
A team from the American League Yes
A team from the National League No

# Forecasters: 191

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.901973 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.884169 Mroochyslav
4 -0.875624 jeremylichtman
5 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.850351 sawyerwhip
7 -0.850351 BenP
8 -0.850351 joenb
9 -0.850351 ShotintheDark
10 -0.838176 cbrophy
11 -0.833805 Gor999
12 -0.820896 BestGuess

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Sports

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.907805 slobodan
2 -0.856591 patrickmeehan5
3 -0.731624 Delorean
4 -0.503747 dada
5 -0.411260 khoshea
6 -0.392714 yaifuz26
7 -0.375078 KSpain
8 -0.344351 ravel
9 -0.315791 000
10 -0.264533 Davidoff400
11 -0.237624 JP
12 -0.047805 kormac

Open: 2

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Davidoff400 Yes 55
ravel Yes 93
yaifuz26 Yes 95
KSpain Yes 95
dada Yes 99
slobodan Yes 99
khoshea Yes 99
JP Yes 100
Delorean Yes 100
kormac Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 94 94
Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
slobodan Yes 0
dada Yes 5
yaifuz26 Yes 15
ravel Yes 21
JP Yes 25
kormac Yes 40
KSpain Yes 50
patrickmeehan5 Yes 50
Davidoff400 Yes 55
Delorean Yes 60
khoshea Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 36 39

Syria

Closed: 3

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 111

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.202808 Anneinak
2 -0.202808 cmeinel
3 -0.202808 Falconer
4 -0.202808 einsteinjs
5 -0.202808 September
6 -0.202808 clinton
7 -0.202808 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.202808 000
9 -0.202808 Hammer Time
10 -0.202808 dowser
11 -0.202808 Agent0090
12 -0.202808 madre
As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?
Branch Answer
1 million or more Yes
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive No
Less than 560,000 No
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million No

# Forecasters: 328

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.495237 slobodan
2 -1.475237 thomas.r
3 -1.375237 Jamison
4 -1.272437 vasil
5 -1.257445 Cdrapp
6 -1.113237 jimmccue
7 -1.085793 Rhysbros
8 -1.062117 afoyfs
9 -0.998537 jeremylichtman
10 -0.974437 zwzhang
11 -0.906837 jimglynn
12 -0.882152 lydia.albanis
Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 586

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.077117 UnderwaterPutin
2 -0.077117 dominich
3 -0.077117 grossz18
4 -0.077117 Heffalump
5 -0.077117 cmeinel
6 -0.077117 Falconer
7 -0.077117 einsteinjs
8 -0.077117 Khalid
9 -0.077117 vernscot
10 -0.077117 Delorean
11 -0.077117 slobodan
12 -0.077117 Rebel ran riot

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Syria

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.598925 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.399234 000
3 -0.274495 ckruger
4 -0.258114 cdob63

Open: 6

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 1
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 26
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 11 11
Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
ckruger Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 1 1
Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 65
Jean-Pierre Yes 66
cdob63 Yes 71
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 67 76
Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 5
Jean-Pierre Yes 8
cdob63 Yes 13
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 9 9
When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Before 13 March 2016 0
ckruger Before 13 March 2016 0
cdob63 Before 13 March 2016 0
ckruger Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 2
cdob63 Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 9
Jean-Pierre Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 13
Jean-Pierre Not before 1 July 2016 87
cdob63 Not before 1 July 2016 91
ckruger Not before 1 July 2016 98
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Before 13 March 2016 0 0
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive 8 8
Not before 1 July 2016 92 92
Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 58
ckruger Yes 80
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 48 46

US Presidential election

Closed: 8

Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 302

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.283507 donmars
2 -0.283342 einsteinjs
3 -0.282137 The Brown Recluse
4 -0.281471 Buffalo
5 -0.277822 Lucky
6 -0.277822 LeftCoastRightBrain
7 -0.277822 Swede
8 -0.277822 BestGuess
9 -0.277822 Atyler83
10 -0.272890 mmccaule
11 -0.272890 VagabondJim
12 -0.272890 usajvbueno
Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 420

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.282756 JeanP
2 -0.277756 Jonah B52
3 -0.275592 arnbold
4 -0.275035 redacted
5 -0.271562 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.267830 Asteras
7 -0.267830 Rebel ran riot
8 -0.267636 SteveBoothButterfield
9 -0.264815 Spandrelbarca
10 -0.264099 legant
11 -0.264099 JoeLakeBSJ2LC
12 -0.264099 WGlazer
Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 1765

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.500981 richtyge
2 -0.494507 hoopengarners
3 -0.494507 gmyu
4 -0.493134 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.490986 mayflower
6 -0.490986 Woodasch
7 -0.490986 legant
8 -0.490986 JRoy
9 -0.490986 Dougefresh
10 -0.489648 PowerQuilter
11 -0.488592 Hammer Time
12 -0.488592 scientifics
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump No
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz Yes

# Forecasters: 1086

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.240460 maxharris
2 -2.944160 austerity
3 -2.853260 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -2.816960 moscow25
5 -2.794593 bdenison
6 -2.740827 sh517
7 -2.709160 mattdabrowski
8 -2.707493 jcurry1
9 -2.665827 budwiser
10 -2.654160 taylorcp
11 -2.654160 web
12 -2.654160 anthony_nyc
Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes
Martin O Malley No

# Forecasters: 543

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.034374 slobodan
2 -1.034374 Rhysbros
3 -1.034374 AlexisTocqueville
4 -1.034374 JHH
5 -1.032207 Pinch_Benedict
6 -1.031607 dkc
7 -1.026674 BlindWilliam
8 -1.025207 Skybullet
9 -1.019674 einsteinjs
10 -1.017507 Vuk_Vukovic
11 -0.977607 lsgold7
12 -0.966874 argon1
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Carly Fiorina No
Chris Christie No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Mike Huckabee No
Rand Paul No
Rick Santorum No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 711

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -3.350271 slobodan
2 -3.350271 alistaircookie
3 -3.350271 AlexisTocqueville
4 -3.349302 ckruger
5 -3.345471 taxesa1
6 -3.342860 jwildberger
7 -3.320271 ThreePredictor
8 -3.318713 Dima K
9 -3.318671 Vuk_Vukovic
10 -3.315450 RickRock
11 -3.314902 Iainhen99
12 -3.310271 Mroochyslav
After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Bernie Sanders No
Hillary Clinton Yes

# Forecasters: 372

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.734940 Anneinak
2 -0.734940 clinton
3 -0.734940 Jean-Pierre
4 -0.734940 dowser
5 -0.734940 slobodan
6 -0.734940 scholarandcat
7 -0.734940 chackpal
8 -0.734940 DChristensen
9 -0.734940 willmartin
10 -0.734940 Ice_Panther7
11 -0.734940 Stmrb05
12 -0.734877 MaRott
After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Branch Answer
Ben Carson No
Donald Trump Yes
Jeb Bush No
Jim Gilmore No
John Kasich No
Marco Rubio No
Ted Cruz No

# Forecasters: 637

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.102965 slobodan
2 -2.102965 alistaircookie
3 -2.097849 clinton
4 -2.081912 DChristensen
5 -2.060333 Dwight Smith
6 -2.055070 swanked
7 -2.011933 Aches
8 -2.004691 Stmrb05
9 -1.972965 dowser
10 -1.972123 BlueSteel
11 -1.959617 Jean-Pierre
12 -1.952438 Laeve

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster US Presidential election

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -8.726924 vox vox
2 -8.611191 ckruger
3 -7.675277 cdob63
4 -7.323830 000
5 -7.108089 ravel
6 -7.033450 dada
7 -6.600029 Cora
8 -6.342771 ESR
9 -6.318066 lindsey91
10 -5.954078 dowser
11 -5.465459 GJDrew
12 -5.148412 tomh

Open: 8

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
vox vox Ben Carson 0
lindsey91 Ben Carson 0
dada Ben Carson 0
GJDrew Ben Carson 0
ESR Ben Carson 0
ckruger Ben Carson 0
dowser Ben Carson 0
ravel Ben Carson 0
cdob63 Ben Carson 0
Cora Ben Carson 0
tomh Ben Carson 0
vox vox Carly Fiorina 0
lindsey91 Carly Fiorina 0
dada Carly Fiorina 0
GJDrew Carly Fiorina 0
ESR Carly Fiorina 0
ckruger Carly Fiorina 0
dowser Carly Fiorina 0
ravel Carly Fiorina 0
cdob63 Carly Fiorina 0
Cora Carly Fiorina 0
tomh Carly Fiorina 0
tomh Donald Trump 55
cdob63 Donald Trump 56
lindsey91 Donald Trump 64
dowser Donald Trump 65
Cora Donald Trump 65
GJDrew Donald Trump 66
ESR Donald Trump 66
vox vox Donald Trump 74
ravel Donald Trump 90
ckruger Donald Trump 94
dada Donald Trump 95
vox vox Jeb Bush 0
lindsey91 Jeb Bush 0
dada Jeb Bush 0
GJDrew Jeb Bush 0
ESR Jeb Bush 0
ckruger Jeb Bush 0
dowser Jeb Bush 0
ravel Jeb Bush 0
cdob63 Jeb Bush 0
Cora Jeb Bush 0
tomh Jeb Bush 0
dada Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
dowser Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
tomh Marco Rubio 0
vox vox Marco Rubio 5
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 7
GJDrew Marco Rubio 8
cdob63 Marco Rubio 11
Cora Marco Rubio 15
ESR Marco Rubio 16
dada None of the above 0
ckruger None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
Cora None of the above 0
tomh None of the above 0
vox vox None of the above 2
ESR None of the above 2
GJDrew None of the above 10
ravel None of the above 10
lindsey91 None of the above 13
dowser None of the above 20
ravel Ted Cruz 0
dada Ted Cruz 5
ckruger Ted Cruz 6
dowser Ted Cruz 15
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 16
GJDrew Ted Cruz 16
ESR Ted Cruz 16
vox vox Ted Cruz 19
Cora Ted Cruz 20
cdob63 Ted Cruz 33
tomh Ted Cruz 45
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Ben Carson 0 0
Carly Fiorina 0 0
Donald Trump 72 70
Jeb Bush 0 0
Marco Rubio 6 16
None of the above 5 8
Ted Cruz 17 6
Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Bernie Sanders 0
cdob63 Bernie Sanders 0
vox vox Bernie Sanders 1
dada Bernie Sanders 5
dowser Bernie Sanders 5
lindsey91 Bernie Sanders 8
ESR Bernie Sanders 10
tomh Bernie Sanders 10
Cora Bernie Sanders 15
GJDrew Bernie Sanders 20
ravel Bernie Sanders 59
ravel Hillary Clinton 41
GJDrew Hillary Clinton 80
Cora Hillary Clinton 85
ESR Hillary Clinton 90
tomh Hillary Clinton 90
lindsey91 Hillary Clinton 92
dada Hillary Clinton 95
dowser Hillary Clinton 95
vox vox Hillary Clinton 99
ckruger Hillary Clinton 100
cdob63 Hillary Clinton 100
vox vox Martin O Malley 0
lindsey91 Martin O Malley 0
dada Martin O Malley 0
GJDrew Martin O Malley 0
ESR Martin O Malley 0
ckruger Martin O Malley 0
dowser Martin O Malley 0
ravel Martin O Malley 0
cdob63 Martin O Malley 0
Cora Martin O Malley 0
tomh Martin O Malley 0
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Bernie Sanders 12 11
Hillary Clinton 88 89
Martin O Malley 0 0
Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
lindsey91 Yes 60
GJDrew Yes 60
ESR Yes 68
dowser Yes 70
tomh Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 81
Cora Yes 85
dada Yes 88
ravel Yes 89
vox vox Yes 90
ckruger Yes 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 79 88
Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel A Democrat 33
GJDrew A Democrat 53
dowser A Democrat 55
ESR A Democrat 58
lindsey91 A Democrat 65
Cora A Democrat 65
tomh A Democrat 75
vox vox A Democrat 80
dada A Democrat 90
ckruger A Democrat 90
cdob63 A Democrat 92
cdob63 A Republican 8
dada A Republican 10
ckruger A Republican 10
vox vox A Republican 20
tomh A Republican 25
lindsey91 A Republican 33
Cora A Republican 35
ESR A Republican 42
GJDrew A Republican 44
dowser A Republican 45
ravel A Republican 58
vox vox Other 0
dada Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Cora Other 0
tomh Other 0
lindsey91 Other 2
GJDrew Other 3
ravel Other 9
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
A Democrat 69 74
A Republican 30 24
Other 1 2
(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Democrat 0
dowser Democrat 55
GJDrew Democrat 60
ESR Democrat 66
dada Democrat 73
Cora Democrat 75
lindsey91 Democrat 80
vox vox Democrat 85
cdob63 Democrat 97
ckruger Democrat 98
tomh Democrat 99
vox vox Other 0
ESR Other 0
ckruger Other 0
dowser Other 0
ravel Other 0
cdob63 Other 0
Cora Other 0
tomh Other 0
lindsey91 Other 1
GJDrew Other 5
dada Other 13
tomh Republican 1
ckruger Republican 2
cdob63 Republican 3
dada Republican 14
vox vox Republican 15
lindsey91 Republican 19
Cora Republican 25
ESR Republican 34
GJDrew Republican 35
dowser Republican 45
ravel Republican 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Democrat 72 69
Other 2 2
Republican 27 29
Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ckruger Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 5
vox vox Yes 22
ESR Yes 33
ravel Yes 41
dowser Yes 45
lindsey91 Yes 52
dada Yes 52
GJDrew Yes 55
Cora Yes 60
tomh Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Yes 41 39
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
dada Donald Trump 25
ESR Donald Trump 35
dowser Donald Trump 38
lindsey91 Donald Trump 40
Cora Donald Trump 40
GJDrew Donald Trump 45
ckruger Donald Trump 45
cdob63 Donald Trump 48
vox vox Donald Trump 50
ravel Donald Trump 53
tomh Donald Trump 60
ravel John Kasich 35
tomh John Kasich 40
cdob63 John Kasich 49
vox vox John Kasich 50
Cora John Kasich 50
lindsey91 John Kasich 55
GJDrew John Kasich 55
ckruger John Kasich 55
dowser John Kasich 56
ESR John Kasich 64
dada John Kasich 75
vox vox Marco Rubio 0
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 0
dada Marco Rubio 0
GJDrew Marco Rubio 0
ESR Marco Rubio 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 0
ravel Marco Rubio 0
cdob63 Marco Rubio 0
tomh Marco Rubio 0
dowser Marco Rubio 1
Cora Marco Rubio 5
vox vox Ted Cruz 0
dada Ted Cruz 0
GJDrew Ted Cruz 0
ckruger Ted Cruz 0
tomh Ted Cruz 0
ESR Ted Cruz 1
cdob63 Ted Cruz 3
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 5
dowser Ted Cruz 5
Cora Ted Cruz 5
ravel Ted Cruz 12
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Donald Trump 44 48
John Kasich 53 52
Marco Rubio 1 0
Ted Cruz 3 0
Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
dowser Donald Trump 58
GJDrew Donald Trump 60
ravel Donald Trump 65
ESR Donald Trump 70
Cora Donald Trump 70
tomh Donald Trump 75
lindsey91 Donald Trump 78
cdob63 Donald Trump 80
vox vox Donald Trump 82
dada Donald Trump 89
ckruger Donald Trump 90
vox vox John Kasich 0
lindsey91 John Kasich 0
dada John Kasich 0
GJDrew John Kasich 0
ESR John Kasich 0
ckruger John Kasich 0
dowser John Kasich 0
ravel John Kasich 0
cdob63 John Kasich 0
Cora John Kasich 0
tomh John Kasich 0
ckruger Marco Rubio 5
dada Marco Rubio 11
cdob63 Marco Rubio 11
vox vox Marco Rubio 15
ravel Marco Rubio 15
lindsey91 Marco Rubio 19
Cora Marco Rubio 25
tomh Marco Rubio 25
ESR Marco Rubio 30
dowser Marco Rubio 31
GJDrew Marco Rubio 40
dada Ted Cruz 0
GJDrew Ted Cruz 0
ESR Ted Cruz 0
tomh Ted Cruz 0
vox vox Ted Cruz 3
lindsey91 Ted Cruz 3
ckruger Ted Cruz 5
Cora Ted Cruz 5
cdob63 Ted Cruz 9
dowser Ted Cruz 11
ravel Ted Cruz 20
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best answer 3/7/16 Prior answer 3/5/16
Donald Trump 74 85
John Kasich 0 4
Marco Rubio 21 8
Ted Cruz 5 3

USDJPY

I’ve been thinking about USDJPY lately.  I shared this with an economist friend of mine, who mocked my efforts, saying that FX has a large unpredictable volatility component which has defied all attempts at modelling.  By economists.  Luckily, sir, I am no economist!

So, caveat:  Please don’t trade on this. These are the musings of an amateur, and I’m likely to be wrong.  Assume that all of this is mistaken.

Anyhoo.  You can see a big uptick that makes sense and then it fades, only to learn, as on Friday, that, while employment numbers were up, wages were down, or something like that, and the initial employment number caused some enthusiasm for USD, and then people thought about it, didn’t like the wage number, and USD dropped, lowering USDJPY. So goes the narrative.  So news matters.

Be that all as it may, I’ve broken it down for myself as follows.  I see 3 main effects:

  1. Interest rate parity theorem.  Yen rates are basically flat around 0.  So what matters is USD Treasury yield.  The basic equation for USDJPY is F = S * (1+rUSD)/(1+rYEN).  So watch rUSD.
  2. Investor allocation between cash, stocks and bonds.  Fear up: Move to cash.  Fear medium: Half stocks half bonds.  Fear down: All stocks.  A fear medium move will raise stock and bond prices simultaneously.   Fear medium is an unstable state, we are more often in Fear Up or Fear Down.  Moves into bonds drive bond prices up and rUSD down.  Move from bonds to stocks drives bond prices down and rUSD up.  Since Fear Medium is an unstable state, if you see Nasdaq or S&P index up, the likelihood is that rUSD will go up as well, as people leave bonds.  Not a hard and fast rule.  Call it a folk theorem.  In Fear Medium unstable state, I expect USDJPY to trade in a range.
  3. Balance of trade.   I don’t often see Nasdaq and Nikkei rise simultaneously.  First of all they are traded alternately, Nasdaq when New York is awake and Nikkei when Tokyo is awake.  My sense, though, is that an up Nasdaq day will be followed by a down Nikkei day.  I haven’t studied this, just another folk theorem.  My folk theorem:  If things are getting more expensive in the US, as proxied by increased stock price, then Japan will need more income to buy US things, so they will lower their prices to get more dollars through increased volume of trade.  And vice-versa.  I consider Nasdaq up and Nikkei futures up to be an unstable state.  In Nikkei up Nasdaq up unstable state, I expectUSDJPY to trade in a range.

Newly refined clusters

megyn-kelly-2-377bb276-e864-4d76-a55f-0ceddd4d56af

I could try to establish which questions are predictive of others empirically, but we have too small a sample space, and it’s not clear how to establish that knowing the answer in one question is predictive of another question without being first able to characterize each question.  That is, there are no features to distinguish which give you a handle on the genetic makeup of a question. So let’s do a category assignment by hand, and stick our finger in the air to guess which questions should be predictive of others.

In making category assignments we are manually doing a principal component analysis.  So for example if I am looking at an Iran Politics question, do I pick a Politics expert first who knows Iran or an Iran expert who knows politics?

My first value judgment: Group by Country/Region and then by Concern.

Second, how specific should we be in picking our experts?  What if it’s a question about Iran and China?  Do I pick an Iran expert or a China expert?  Are there any similar questions?  What if there are no prior similar questions to an open question?  Worse, what if there are no subsequent similar questions to a closed question?  Do I lose my experts in those cases?

My second value judgment: Play it by ear.

So let’s play it by ear.  Without going through all the iterations I made in coming up with this list, here is my Assembly of Experts.  This consists of:

  • Cluster
  • Prior closed questions
  • Current open questions
  • For each open question, who is the most accurate forecaster who was in every prior closed question in the cluster.

So this is done, see below.

NOTE: After some tinkering, my new rules for aggregate forecasting are:

  • Define the clusters so that there is at least one closed question in the cluster (cheating a little bit, but in the end, the clusters I defined seem natural.)
  • Find the best 12 forecasters who participated in all open and closed questions in the cluster.
  • Take the average of their forecasts on the open questions, and scale up so the results add to 100.

Africa

Closed: 1

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?
Branch Answer
Amama Mbabazi No
Kizza Besigye No
None of the above No
Yoweri Museveni Yes

# Forecasters: 223

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.503043 Clairvoyance
2 -0.503043 jlodge01
3 -0.502808 einsteinjs
4 -0.502691 Modog814
5 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
6 -0.502408 cdob63
7 -0.502319 GeneH
8 -0.501905 redacted
9 -0.500808 Scooozai
10 -0.499574 clinton
11 -0.499188 chackpal
12 -0.497932 paul_the_octopus

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Africa

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.502808 einsteinjs
2 -0.502643 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.502408 cdob63
4 -0.500808 Scooozai
5 -0.499574 clinton
6 -0.499188 chackpal
7 -0.496870 000
8 -0.496070 Sneaky_Pete531
9 -0.493732 petth
10 -0.468332 dkc
11 -0.434077 AlexisTocqueville
12 -0.433505 Sjens

Open: 3

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
einsteinjs Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
clinton Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 0
dkc Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 1
chackpal Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 3
cdob63 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 10
AlexisTocqueville Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 15
Sneaky_Pete531 Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 30
Scooozai Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 33
Spandrelbarca Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 34
petth Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 35
petth Less than 10,000 50
Scooozai Less than 10,000 55
Sneaky_Pete531 Less than 10,000 60
Spandrelbarca Less than 10,000 66
AlexisTocqueville Less than 10,000 85
cdob63 Less than 10,000 89
chackpal Less than 10,000 96
dkc Less than 10,000 99
Sjens Less than 10,000 100
einsteinjs Less than 10,000 100
clinton Less than 10,000 100
Sjens More than 15,000 0
AlexisTocqueville More than 15,000 0
dkc More than 15,000 0
einsteinjs More than 15,000 0
clinton More than 15,000 0
Spandrelbarca More than 15,000 0
chackpal More than 15,000 1
cdob63 More than 15,000 1
Sneaky_Pete531 More than 15,000 10
Scooozai More than 15,000 12
petth More than 15,000 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 15 15
Less than 10,000 82 82
More than 15,000 4 3
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 21
cdob63 Yes 27
einsteinjs Yes 38
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 43
chackpal Yes 50
clinton Yes 52
AlexisTocqueville Yes 55
petth Yes 60
Spandrelbarca Yes 65
Scooozai Yes 85
dkc Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 53 53
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Sjens Yes 1
dkc Yes 3
AlexisTocqueville Yes 5
clinton Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 7
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 10
chackpal Yes 13
einsteinjs Yes 14
Scooozai Yes 35
petth Yes 50
Spandrelbarca Yes 75
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 20 20

Asia

Closed: 1

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Branch Answer
Majority Yes
Not a plurality No
Plurality No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.972678 WangShuo
3 -0.855420 geoseattleite
4 -0.708725 Van der MEI
5 -0.541507 KateWestmoreland
6 -0.519885 A Nice Dude With Some Nice Dreams
7 -0.500404 lsgold7
8 -0.493038 TVANKSTA
9 -0.479074 xieweisen
10 -0.460404 dr.cankraut
11 -0.460065 Shahram33
12 -0.365233 teresalam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Asia

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.287993 slobodan
2 -0.288985 Jean-Pierre
3 -0.264130 cdob63
4 -0.257545 000
5 -0.257445 ravel
6 -0.232613 patrickmeehan5
7 -0.220289 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.209220 malcmur
9 -0.199880 mparrault
10 -0.193285 boz
11 -0.145470 sh517
12 -0.070631 kormac

Open: 3

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
ravel Yes 71
malcmur Yes 80
kormac Yes 80
boz Yes 85
Spandrelbarca Yes 89
Jean-Pierre Yes 90
mparrault Yes 95
cdob63 Yes 99
sh517 Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 87 87
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Spandrelbarca Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
cdob63 Yes 9
malcmur Yes 10
kormac Yes 10
patrickmeehan5 Yes 15
mparrault Yes 18
boz Yes 19
Jean-Pierre Yes 22
sh517 Yes 55
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 25 25
Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
sh517 Grace Poe 0
slobodan Grace Poe 0
cdob63 Grace Poe 2
ravel Grace Poe 9
malcmur Grace Poe 20
boz Grace Poe 22
Jean-Pierre Grace Poe 30
mparrault Grace Poe 30
Spandrelbarca Grace Poe 35
kormac Grace Poe 40
patrickmeehan5 Grace Poe 49
slobodan Jejomar Binay 11
ravel Jejomar Binay 11
Jean-Pierre Jejomar Binay 30
kormac Jejomar Binay 30
Spandrelbarca Jejomar Binay 35
mparrault Jejomar Binay 35
boz Jejomar Binay 37
patrickmeehan5 Jejomar Binay 51
malcmur Jejomar Binay 60
cdob63 Jejomar Binay 66
sh517 Jejomar Binay 100
sh517 Mar Roxas 0
malcmur Mar Roxas 0
slobodan Mar Roxas 0
ravel Mar Roxas 0
patrickmeehan5 Mar Roxas 0
Spandrelbarca Mar Roxas 5
mparrault Mar Roxas 7
cdob63 Mar Roxas 8
Jean-Pierre Mar Roxas 10
boz Mar Roxas 13
kormac Mar Roxas 20
sh517 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
malcmur Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Jean-Pierre Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
slobodan Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
kormac Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
ravel Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
cdob63 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
patrickmeehan5 Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
Spandrelbarca Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0
mparrault Miriam Defensor-Santiago 1
boz Miriam Defensor-Santiago 2
sh517 None of the above 0
malcmur None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
slobodan None of the above 0
kormac None of the above 0
ravel None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
mparrault None of the above 1
boz None of the above 2
Spandrelbarca None of the above 5
sh517 Rodrigo Duterte 0
patrickmeehan5 Rodrigo Duterte 0
kormac Rodrigo Duterte 10
malcmur Rodrigo Duterte 20
Spandrelbarca Rodrigo Duterte 20
boz Rodrigo Duterte 24
cdob63 Rodrigo Duterte 24
mparrault Rodrigo Duterte 26
Jean-Pierre Rodrigo Duterte 30
ravel Rodrigo Duterte 80
slobodan Rodrigo Duterte 89
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Grace Poe 22 22
Jejomar Binay 42 42
Mar Roxas 6 6
Miriam Defensor-Santiago 0 0
None of the above 1 1
Rodrigo Duterte 29 29

Capital controls

Closed: 10

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 55

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.760930 mc77
2 -0.735999 brazilianwitchcraft
3 -0.680486 Peter Katzenfisch
4 -0.621344 fchoe
5 -0.612430 Jamison
6 -0.512430 pb41
7 -0.475930 Falconer
8 -0.471430 afoyfs
9 -0.442875 banda311
10 -0.420097 Mikatec
11 -0.403430 Khalid
12 -0.402097 bconlee
Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 175

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.284685 Peter Katzenfisch
2 -0.281174 tumbleweed
3 -0.278442 Rebel ran riot
4 -0.274153 974david
5 -0.259251 gust
6 -0.249651 Anneinak
7 -0.244319 Agent0090
8 -0.241672 clinton
9 -0.240093 darius.hinton
10 -0.237868 donmars
11 -0.232025 Randy
12 -0.222495 dada
Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 94

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.272006 Paul Theron
2 -0.261711 jeremylichtman
3 -0.257041 Dwight Smith
4 -0.255736 PinyonCyn
5 -0.255723 llanchav
6 -0.255463 000
7 -0.253607 Asteras
8 -0.251375 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.249679 Falconer
10 -0.249569 BlockHead
11 -0.249350 Manfred
12 -0.247481 slobodan
Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.217195 Reynard
2 -0.210510 PinyonCyn
3 -0.210313 Falconer
4 -0.208338 bmiller
5 -0.203094 000
6 -0.197395 Darren
7 -0.195541 Oracle
8 -0.192805 rjuarbe
9 -0.192805 llanchav
10 -0.192805 bill l
11 -0.192421 Dwight Smith
12 -0.189526 BlockHead
Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 579

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.455791 eightball
2 -0.452291 Bob Woods
3 -0.450841 briannbarbour
4 -0.450595 Chiyouen
5 -0.445891 harshabn
6 -0.445891 hn7815
7 -0.445597 patrickmeehan5
8 -0.443119 nc.ch
9 -0.443119 Picasso1387
10 -0.438247 Falconer
11 -0.431191 Ron
12 -0.431191 dyco
Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 112

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.421854 GP Jim
2 -0.416593 Rebel ran riot
3 -0.411894 lookitsKB
4 -0.406159 donmars
5 -0.402262 gearhart5k
6 -0.400807 iajski
7 -0.397209 Doina
8 -0.396262 ambidextrous
9 -0.382315 jnord
10 -0.377525 davecrosby
11 -0.377525 thalt123
12 -0.377525 Garyland
Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 127

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.528685 Manfred
2 -0.519695 PetaBajt
3 -0.500274 drbooze
4 -0.497586 dada
5 -0.495485 LisinHvost
6 -0.495485 CRaazi
7 -0.470906 Rote
8 -0.465380 Somchai A
9 -0.454093 MarkBadger
10 -0.438531 GeneH
11 -0.429853 fightin bronco
12 -0.423695 Minnesota71
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 101

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.082346 Anneinak
2 -0.082346 DariusX
3 -0.082346 Raisinville
4 -0.082346 Spandrelbarca
5 -0.082346 ckruger
6 -0.082346 redacted
7 -0.082346 Gleb_Kabanov
8 -0.082346 luzkannon
9 -0.082346 rockytop00
10 -0.082346 kormac
11 -0.082346 CalMotoMal
12 -0.082346 Free-thinker
Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?
Branch Answer
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Yes
Someone else from Europe No
Someone from outside Europe No

# Forecasters: 277

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.678659 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.678659 RedHarris
3 -0.670050 einsteinjs
4 -0.668659 Travist
5 -0.660536 kormac
6 -0.651727 AjzakN
7 -0.649459 PaulLynch
8 -0.648659 15
9 -0.643423 alistaircookie
10 -0.642159 malcmur
11 -0.641236 dkc
12 -0.631955 Srzaua
How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?
Branch Answer
Four No
None No
One No
Three No
Two Yes

# Forecasters: 202

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.988249 einsteinjs
2 -0.984349 z0k
3 -0.984182 gkamstra
4 -0.982182 Sjens
5 -0.981382 alistaircookie
6 -0.980449 sonac36
7 -0.978982 Khalid
8 -0.978982 fifty-sixty
9 -0.978982 Overtheriver
10 -0.978982 searchlight
11 -0.978982 Persistanceofmemory
12 -0.974049 DariusX

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Capital controls

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.458420 000
2 -2.282963 cdob63
3 -1.825863 ravel
4 -1.684331 patrickmeehan5
5 -1.414834 kormac
6 -1.342902 mparrault

Open: 7

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 15
ravel Yes 17
mparrault Yes 20
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 32 32
Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 4
kormac Yes 5
ravel Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 4 4
Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
kormac Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 4
mparrault Yes 8
patrickmeehan5 Yes 60
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 15 15
Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 0
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
cdob63 Yes 19
kormac Yes 30
mparrault Yes 35
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 19 19
How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Above 75 0
ravel Above 75 11
mparrault Above 75 11
kormac Above 75 25
patrickmeehan5 Above 75 69
kormac Between 51 and 60, inclusive 3
ravel Between 51 and 60, inclusive 5
patrickmeehan5 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 10
mparrault Between 51 and 60, inclusive 21
cdob63 Between 51 and 60, inclusive 25
patrickmeehan5 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 20
mparrault Between 61 and 75, inclusive 60
kormac Between 61 and 75, inclusive 70
cdob63 Between 61 and 75, inclusive 75
ravel Between 61 and 75, inclusive 84
ravel In the top 50 0
cdob63 In the top 50 0
patrickmeehan5 In the top 50 1
kormac In the top 50 2
mparrault In the top 50 8
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Above 75 23 23
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 13 13
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 62 62
In the top 50 2 2
Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
ravel Yes 2
kormac Yes 5
patrickmeehan5 Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 4 4
Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 65
cdob63 Yes 68
ravel Yes 77
patrickmeehan5 Yes 80
kormac Yes 85
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 75 75

China

Closed: 2

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 148

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.183613 Easy Miles
2 -0.182941 Paul Theron
3 -0.179515 Spandrelbarca
4 -0.170171 PinyonCyn
5 -0.166687 000
6 -0.166441 Matt
7 -0.163613 Darren
8 -0.160171 Xu
9 -0.158833 dylanjones
10 -0.150826 Roosevelt
11 -0.146728 slobodan
12 -0.145987 hyperionok
Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 182

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.340406 k13rkeg44rd
2 -0.335406 Lucky
3 -0.334716 redacted
4 -0.332039 madre
5 -0.330305 ckruger
6 -0.323263 dkc
7 -0.319087 DMOzone
8 -0.313338 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.312933 slobodan
10 -0.294619 jkbick
11 -0.294059 sh517
12 -0.293331 000

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster China

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.470521 madre
2 -0.460018 000
3 -0.459661 slobodan
4 -0.426133 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.415508 alistaircookie
6 -0.412462 Lucky
7 -0.410775 ckruger
8 -0.402072 klin
9 -0.389949 cmeinel
10 -0.362608 cdob63
11 -0.354234 Buck Clemons
12 -0.339882 mparrault

Open: 3

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel Yes 1
ckruger Yes 5
Buck Clemons Yes 10
klin Yes 12
Jean-Pierre Yes 21
alistaircookie Yes 33
mparrault Yes 40
cdob63 Yes 59
madre Yes 68
Lucky Yes 75
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 39 39
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Lucky Yes 1
ckruger Yes 3
alistaircookie Yes 3
klin Yes 5
cmeinel Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 8
Buck Clemons Yes 10
Jean-Pierre Yes 14
madre Yes 28
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 17 17
Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cmeinel No 47
klin No 60
Jean-Pierre No 60
Lucky No 70
Buck Clemons No 85
mparrault No 85
cdob63 No 97
madre No 98
alistaircookie No 98
ckruger No 99
slobodan No 100
Buck Clemons Yes, with both 0
ckruger Yes, with both 0
cmeinel Yes, with both 0
slobodan Yes, with both 0
madre Yes, with both 0
cdob63 Yes, with both 0
Lucky Yes, with both 0
alistaircookie Yes, with both 2
mparrault Yes, with both 2
Jean-Pierre Yes, with both 3
klin Yes, with both 25
slobodan Yes, with only Iran 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Iran 0
ckruger Yes, with only Iran 1
madre Yes, with only Iran 1
cdob63 Yes, with only Iran 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Iran 10
mparrault Yes, with only Iran 10
klin Yes, with only Iran 15
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Iran 23
Lucky Yes, with only Iran 30
cmeinel Yes, with only Iran 53
klin Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
ckruger Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cmeinel Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
slobodan Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
cdob63 Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
Lucky Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
alistaircookie Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0
madre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 1
mparrault Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 3
Buck Clemons Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 14
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
No 82 82
Yes, with both 3 3
Yes, with only Iran 13 13
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 2 2

EU

Closed: 2

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 89

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.157904 Falconer
2 -0.151375 cdob63
3 -0.151312 clinton
4 -0.148035 mike97mike
5 -0.145732 malcmur
6 -0.145535 scholarandcat
7 -0.145353 000
8 -0.144310 patrickmeehan5
9 -0.139261 dada
10 -0.139216 Lux
11 -0.139016 Hammer Time
12 -0.137692 mparrault
Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 429

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.580726 slobodan
2 -0.575320 drouq_
3 -0.547018 duth_forever
4 -0.545726 patrickmeehan5
5 -0.535726 marcbgoldberg
6 -0.530987 mayflower
7 -0.514668 searchlight
8 -0.511393 monique
9 -0.500726 CedricJ
10 -0.497226 Augustinas
11 -0.496351 scurcuru
12 -0.492341 jfm293c

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster EU

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.690036 patrickmeehan5
2 -0.530723 Delorean
3 -0.487162 cdob63
4 -0.298233 Jean-Pierre
5 -0.295004 Rene
6 -0.285294 000
7 -0.262162 RCScheffers
8 -0.195666 Anneinak
9 -0.098943 Sneaky_Pete531

Open: 3

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers Both 0
Sneaky_Pete531 Both 0
Jean-Pierre Both 0
Delorean Both 0
Anneinak Both 0
Rene Both 0
cdob63 Both 0
patrickmeehan5 Both 80
Delorean Ciudadanos 0
Anneinak Ciudadanos 0
cdob63 Ciudadanos 1
Sneaky_Pete531 Ciudadanos 3
Jean-Pierre Ciudadanos 4
RCScheffers Ciudadanos 5
Rene Ciudadanos 5
patrickmeehan5 Ciudadanos 5
patrickmeehan5 Neither 5
Sneaky_Pete531 Neither 84
Jean-Pierre Neither 94
RCScheffers Neither 95
Rene Neither 95
cdob63 Neither 99
Delorean Neither 100
Anneinak Neither 100
RCScheffers Podemos 0
Delorean Podemos 0
Anneinak Podemos 0
Rene Podemos 0
cdob63 Podemos 0
Jean-Pierre Podemos 2
patrickmeehan5 Podemos 10
Sneaky_Pete531 Podemos 13
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Both 10 10
Ciudadanos 3 3
Neither 84 84
Podemos 3 3
Who will be the next mayor of London?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
RCScheffers None of the above 0
Sneaky_Pete531 None of the above 0
Jean-Pierre None of the above 0
Delorean None of the above 0
Anneinak None of the above 0
Rene None of the above 0
cdob63 None of the above 0
patrickmeehan5 None of the above 0
Sneaky_Pete531 Sadiq Khan 75
Jean-Pierre Sadiq Khan 75
Anneinak Sadiq Khan 75
RCScheffers Sadiq Khan 78
Rene Sadiq Khan 78
Delorean Sadiq Khan 91
cdob63 Sadiq Khan 94
patrickmeehan5 Sadiq Khan 99
patrickmeehan5 Zac Goldsmith 1
cdob63 Zac Goldsmith 6
Delorean Zac Goldsmith 9
RCScheffers Zac Goldsmith 22
Rene Zac Goldsmith 22
Sneaky_Pete531 Zac Goldsmith 25
Jean-Pierre Zac Goldsmith 25
Anneinak Zac Goldsmith 25
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
None of the above 0 0
Sadiq Khan 83 83
Zac Goldsmith 17 17
Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 55
RCScheffers Yes 58
Rene Yes 58
Anneinak Yes 66
Sneaky_Pete531 Yes 69
cdob63 Yes 80
Delorean Yes 95
patrickmeehan5 Yes 95
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 72 72

Entertainment

Closed: 4

Will the book Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 145

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.623068 RichStenberg
2 -0.587479 ben
3 -0.583794 jeremylichtman
4 -0.534189 Khalid
5 -0.517468 yankeeracer
6 -0.504694 Socrates
7 -0.498268 SmallTown Gal
8 -0.482305 ESR
9 -0.478389 patrickmeehan5
10 -0.470505 KokaV992
11 -0.468663 Slackline
12 -0.468663 matadams4u
Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 238

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.215373 piodzie
2 -0.215373 BestGuess
3 -0.215052 heinlager
4 -0.210786 Rebel ran riot
5 -0.210590 hyperionok
6 -0.210590 List9845
7 -0.210419 XanX
8 -0.210419 selkhet7
9 -0.210419 raullegaz
10 -0.210419 Predrag
11 -0.205878 Themistokles
12 -0.205878 JH_Bernard
Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?
Branch Answer
Flipsies Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser No
Laser Maze Jr. No
Makey Makey Classic No
Meccanoid G15 Yes
MiPosaur No
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator No
i-loom No

# Forecasters: 160

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.460378 vkent
2 -1.359424 renatomt
3 -1.242494 albender
4 -1.153113 Graham88
5 -0.971340 janeanne
6 -0.961103 fifty-sixty
7 -0.886779 calebw
8 -0.873897 Magloghan
9 -0.870655 praedico
10 -0.870378 Minsky
11 -0.862222 Dima K
12 -0.846671 Dilamarter
Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Branch Answer
Bridge of Spies No
Brooklyn No
Mad Max: Fury Road No
Room No
Spotlight Yes
The Big Short No
The Martian No
The Revenant No

# Forecasters: 402

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.032620 slobodan
2 -1.634741 Mr.Macbeth
3 -1.507166 Potter
4 -1.496863 pablogabriels
5 -1.488378 acerock6
6 -1.444981 craigellan
7 -1.416951 Dima K
8 -1.399396 Costusinsights
9 -1.218123 dylbyl25
10 -1.157466 Scabe
11 -1.124422 Claudio
12 -1.109287 kbaker

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Entertainment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -2.209046 GJDrew
2 -1.595470 mparrault
3 -1.541718 patrickmeehan5
4 -1.505138 000
5 -1.391106 yaifuz26
6 -1.375077 cdob63
7 -1.023185 ravel
8 -0.244440 petth

Open: 6

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 2
ravel Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
GJDrew Yes 11
petth Yes 25
yaifuz26 Yes 55
patrickmeehan5 Yes 99
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 29 29
Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth All of the above will survive season 6 0
patrickmeehan5 All of the above will survive season 6 0
yaifuz26 All of the above will survive season 6 25
GJDrew All of the above will survive season 6 25
cdob63 All of the above will survive season 6 42
mparrault All of the above will survive season 6 50
ravel All of the above will survive season 6 52
ravel Carl 0
patrickmeehan5 Carl 0
GJDrew Carl 5
mparrault Carl 5
cdob63 Carl 14
yaifuz26 Carl 25
petth Carl 50
patrickmeehan5 Carol 0
yaifuz26 Carol 15
GJDrew Carol 18
mparrault Carol 18
ravel Carol 22
cdob63 Carol 34
petth Carol 50
petth Daryl 0
patrickmeehan5 Daryl 0
cdob63 Daryl 6
mparrault Daryl 7
yaifuz26 Daryl 20
ravel Daryl 22
GJDrew Daryl 26
yaifuz26 Glenn 0
petth Glenn 0
cdob63 Glenn 3
ravel Glenn 4
mparrault Glenn 20
GJDrew Glenn 26
patrickmeehan5 Glenn 99
petth Rick 0
GJDrew Rick 0
ravel Rick 0
mparrault Rick 0
cdob63 Rick 1
patrickmeehan5 Rick 1
yaifuz26 Rick 15
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
All of the above will survive season 6 28 28
Carl 14 14
Carol 22 22
Daryl 12 12
Glenn 22 22
Rick 2 2
Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 1
patrickmeehan5 Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 6
mparrault Yes 7
GJDrew Yes 35
yaifuz26 Yes 45
petth Yes 50
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 21 21
Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 0
mparrault Yes 0
petth Yes 1
ravel Yes 1
yaifuz26 Yes 65
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 24 24
Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 7
cdob63 Yes 11
GJDrew Yes 13
yaifuz26 Yes 15
mparrault Yes 15
petth Yes 60
patrickmeehan5 Yes 65
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 27 27
Will Google’s AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five game Go match planned for March 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
GJDrew Yes 25
mparrault Yes 35
ravel Yes 49
cdob63 Yes 68
yaifuz26 Yes 85
petth Yes 100
patrickmeehan5 Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 66 66

Environment

Closed: 1

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 185

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 DariusX
2 -0.117004 000
3 -0.117004 Delorean
4 -0.117004 Clairvoyance
5 -0.117004 alistaircookie
6 -0.117004 tom.prigg
7 -0.117004 AlexisTocqueville
8 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
9 -0.116822 dkc
10 -0.116804 clinton
11 -0.116804 ravel
12 -0.116804 guesser

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Environment

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.117004 000
2 -0.117004 Delorean
3 -0.117004 alistaircookie
4 -0.116904 Gfrizzi
5 -0.116804 clinton
6 -0.116804 ravel
7 -0.115413 Khalid
8 -0.115413 REGallahue
9 -0.115413 argon1
10 -0.115076 morrell
11 -0.114458 cdob63
12 -0.106795 Amir

Open: 2

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
ravel Yes 23
Amir Yes 65
alistaircookie Yes 66
REGallahue Yes 72
Khalid Yes 75
morrell Yes 80
cdob63 Yes 84
Gfrizzi Yes 85
Delorean Yes 85
clinton Yes 89
argon1 Yes 90
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 74 74
Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
argon1 Yes 0
clinton Yes 0
alistaircookie Yes 0
Gfrizzi Yes 2
REGallahue Yes 3
Delorean Yes 4
cdob63 Yes 4
morrell Yes 5
Amir Yes 5
ravel Yes 9
Khalid Yes 10
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 4 4

Iran

Closed: 9

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 201

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.448675 Bill
2 -0.427661 alterego
3 -0.427661 Socrates
4 -0.427661 Gregory
5 -0.423900 gust
6 -0.416900 Ron
7 -0.414039 thomas.r
8 -0.410052 brazilianwitchcraft
9 -0.408277 Delorean
10 -0.396248 Jay R
11 -0.389146 jatreit
12 -0.388274 Poorforecaster
Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?
Branch Answer
No Yes
Yes, and the resolution will become law No
Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand No

# Forecasters: 86

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.814923 Falconer
2 -0.814547 GeneH
3 -0.804947 Wagle
4 -0.785418 johneyhb
5 -0.726712 einsteinjs
6 -0.726523 dms
7 -0.684241 Manfred
8 -0.663959 wlmsears
9 -0.651253 Raisinville
10 -0.642006 Dwight Smith
11 -0.574429 ESR
12 -0.559912 GJDrew
Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 69

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.125324 000
2 -0.125324 ravel
3 -0.125006 cdob63
4 -0.120986 donmars
5 -0.120324 jnord
6 -0.119806 UnderwaterPutin
7 -0.119806 Khalid
8 -0.117048 jatreit
9 -0.115524 gust
10 -0.111875 Anneinak
11 -0.108772 malcmur
12 -0.107889 GP Jim
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 37

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.566842 Jean-Pierre
2 -0.528271 Manfred
3 -0.521585 ESR
4 -0.488671 usajvbueno
5 -0.478985 donmars
6 -0.478985 jnord
7 -0.456957 Mroochyslav
8 -0.434699 clinton
9 -0.428985 Shahar
10 -0.428985 ZEUS
11 -0.420642 madre
12 -0.410414 Khalid
Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 122

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.188506 Agent0090
2 -0.188201 000
3 -0.185291 TVANKSTA
4 -0.185191 Khalid
5 -0.184458 jnord
6 -0.182363 cdob63
7 -0.180791 cmeinel
8 -0.180529 usajvbueno
9 -0.180529 GP Jim
10 -0.177358 sluggoman
11 -0.177358 JP
12 -0.176658 alistaircookie
Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 294

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.276187 slobodan
2 -0.275987 Asia
3 -0.275387 twodox
4 -0.267238 clinton
5 -0.266561 Rosario
6 -0.266057 mayflower
7 -0.264098 madre
8 -0.262787 ckruger
9 -0.262169 GoodieGoodie
10 -0.261974 JHooson
11 -0.261935 Manfred
12 -0.260767 cdob63
When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Branch Answer
Before 1 March 2016 Yes
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive No
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive No
Not before 1 July 2016 No

# Forecasters: 146

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.958118 fifty-sixty
2 -1.925718 azharala
3 -1.851830 Wagle
4 -1.780945 Travist
5 -1.737334 Cansee
6 -1.645718 Shashank
7 -1.527385 Pachi
8 -1.474052 jsheth
9 -1.411223 john27
10 -1.395718 travelershope
11 -1.357334 jordanstone01
12 -1.339800 fatalis
Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 121

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.484838 slobodan
2 -0.484638 Kumar_Shah
3 -0.479838 Angturil
4 -0.479838 Ellieb
5 -0.475771 kormac
6 -0.473238 fron24
7 -0.464838 dcrosby51
8 -0.439838 Hadrain
9 -0.439838 rpirzada
10 -0.439838 Peyman2030
11 -0.439838 Mehrdad
12 -0.427704 arash
Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

Answer: Yes

# Forecasters: 200

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.193305 Falconer
2 -0.193064 Spandrelbarca
3 -0.191790 redacted
4 -0.189949 KSpain
5 -0.189321 cdob63
6 -0.188305 Travist
7 -0.188305 fron24
8 -0.188305 JohnH
9 -0.188305 theprof
10 -0.186455 phdork
11 -0.186258 Vicrums
12 -0.183146 Liam

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Iran

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.776117 mparrault
2 -1.654682 Khalid
3 -1.526950 cdob63
4 -1.473965 Jean-Pierre
5 -1.439449 slobodan
6 -1.391127 000
7 -1.158899 Spandrelbarca
8 -0.977923 petth
9 -0.864946 malcmur
10 -0.750579 ravel

Open: 6

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
petth Yes 0
malcmur Yes 0
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
ravel Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 1
mparrault Yes 1
Spandrelbarca Yes 11
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 1 1
Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
mparrault Yes 25
petth Yes 50
ravel Yes 67
Spandrelbarca Yes 85
Jean-Pierre Yes 99
cdob63 Yes 99
malcmur Yes 100
slobodan Yes 100
Khalid Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 81 81
Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
cdob63 Yes 2
malcmur Yes 3
Khalid Yes 5
mparrault Yes 5
ravel Yes 11
petth Yes 35
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 7 7
Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Khalid No 10
petth No 45
Spandrelbarca No 50
cdob63 No 66
Jean-Pierre No 80
mparrault No 80
malcmur No 90
slobodan No 95
ravel No 98
slobodan Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
malcmur Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Jean-Pierre Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
cdob63 Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 30
Khalid Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 35
petth Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 50
malcmur Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0
ravel Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 1
cdob63 Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 4
petth Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
slobodan Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 5
Jean-Pierre Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
mparrault Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 10
Spandrelbarca Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 25
Khalid Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
No 68 68
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 19 19
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 13 13
Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
cdob63 Yes 4
Spandrelbarca Yes 15
petth Yes 25
malcmur Yes 30
ravel Yes 31
mparrault Yes 36
Khalid Yes 55
Jean-Pierre Yes 67
slobodan Yes 100
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 40 40
Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
Khalid Yes 0
Spandrelbarca Yes 0
mparrault Yes 1
malcmur Yes 5
ravel Yes 5
cdob63 Yes 9
petth Yes 55
Average of best cluster forecasters
Branch Best Answer My answer
Yes 8 8

Latin America

Closed: 2

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?
Branch Answer
Daniel Scioli No
Mauricio Macri Yes
Sergio Massa No
Someone else No

# Forecasters: 189

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.130566 Markmsl
3 -1.016340 achatkin
4 -1.012129 ogross
5 -0.916866 fleppy
6 -0.802839 mybaby4929
7 -0.802524 DSchultz
8 -0.775564 Dido
9 -0.745997 lindsey
10 -0.733760 Julius
11 -0.727012 danbazurto
12 -0.716208 974david
Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Answer: No

# Forecasters: 138

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -0.604602 Chrisdo
2 -0.592102 DavidHume1776
3 -0.587352 Alex11
4 -0.579602 Mdmalseed
5 -0.576852 jkbick
6 -0.572102 starbright
7 -0.567102 geoseattleite
8 -0.554602 saesousa
9 -0.550227 drofter
10 -0.537102 malaquias
11 -0.529602 k13rkeg44rd
12 -0.525602 Jean-Pierre

Best forecasters who are in all closed and open questions in cluster Latin America

Rank Accuracy Forecaster
1 -1.667392 slobodan
2 -1.470481 ogross
3 -1.254296 jkbick
4 -1.132342 Dima K
5 -0.972452 patrickmeehan5
6 -0.925410 Davidoff400
7 -0.869938 boz
8 -0.816969 Jean-Pierre
9 -0.748679 dada
10 -0.746782 PianoPicasso
11 -0.716270 yaifuz26
12 -0.704757 christianmaas

Open: 2

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Best cluster forecasters predictions on this question excluding 000
Forecaster Branch Prediction
Jean-Pierre Yes 0
slobodan Yes 0
jkbick Yes