GITREP 20feb16am

south-carolina-gop-map540

Military

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 46%

 

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Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 54%

 

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Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

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Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5%

 

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China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 96%

 

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Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4%

 

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Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 97%

 

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Hostile force projection

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 14%

 

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Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 47%

 

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Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 9%

 

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How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 75%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 21%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 4%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 29%

 

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Iran

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 43%

 

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Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 55%

 

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Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 24%

 

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ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 43%

 

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Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 88%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 9%

 

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North Korea

Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 98%

 

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Counterinsurgency

Colombia

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 52%

 

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Counterterrorism

Ethiopia

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

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Burundi

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 57%

 

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Myanmar

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 15%

 

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Iran

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 1%

 

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Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 76%

 

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Political

Political instability

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 100%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 0%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 0%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 86%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 0%

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 22%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 78%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Iran

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor.

Branch Forecast
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Highly unlikely: 15%
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Highly unlikely: 11%
No Likely: 74%

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 93%

 

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US

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

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Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Likely: 78%
A Republican Unlikely: 22%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly likely: 94%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly unlikely: 6%

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
At least two-thirds of all seats Highly unlikely: 14%
At least one-half but less than two-thirds Likely: 79%
Less than half Highly unlikely: 7%

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Highly unlikely: 7%
No Highly likely: 93%

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

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Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 3%
No Highly likely: 94%

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

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Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

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Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 67%

 

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Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

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Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 16%

 

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Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 8%

 

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Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 11%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 2%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Highly likely: 87%

US

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 1%
Donald Trump Unlikely: 33%
Marco Rubio Unlikely: 33%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Unlikely: 33%

Economic

Capital controls

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

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Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

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Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 9%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 77%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

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Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 0%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Ask me later: 53%
More than 250,000 Ask me later: 47%

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4%

 

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Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Economic force projection through trade agreements

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 80%

 

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US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 26%

 

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Economic instability

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Germany

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Before 13 March 2016 Highly unlikely: 5%
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive Unlikely: 35%
Not before 1 July 2016 Likely: 60%

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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