Entering the Hypermind: HSITREP 5FEB16am

There’s a new kid on the rent-a-forecasting-crowd block, in prediction market format, tilted a bit towards French politics, called hypermind.com.  There are two doors to enter, you can apply or be invited.  Either way, it’s a thing.  So GJOpen is not the only game in town.  Indeed, the business of rent-a-crowds seems to be rapidly expanding.  Not to mention predictit.org which is politics-oriented and, as a market format, closely resembles Hypermind.  Also economic events betting on nadex.com, which I mention reluctantly at the moment because I just found out it is harder to withdraw money from them than it is to deposit it.  The business of crowds is getting very busy.

So here is my Hypermind SITREP for today.  Eventually I will try to gather the energy to make a combined SITREP that encompasses all of the above mentioned platforms.  This morning, not so much.  I give you this (note, away from French elections, the selection of questions is currently much smaller than on the other platforms).  Note, the probability of an event is in the confidence interval [Sell,Buy] and there is a separate confidence interval for Yes and No, so go figure…(yes, will you need to do some figuring to establish a consensus probability density function from these 4 numbers):

CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  PODEMOSGOV

Will Podemos be part of the next Spanish government?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
42 41 48
No
59 52 59 138 8,142 1,518
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BTC1606

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day during the last week of june 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
>= 250k
47 47 50 30 1,410 –90
[200k, 250k[
32 32 35 100 3,200 –200
[150k, 200k[
15 12 15
< 150k
6 6 9
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BYEBYE16

Which national leader below will be first to lose power in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Bashar al-Assad (Syria)
15 15 17 100 1,500 –200
Abdelaziz Bouteflika (Algeria)
27 23 27 100 2,700 104
Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela)
13 13 18 100 1,300 –329
Dilma Rousseff (Brasil)
14 9 14 100 1,400 0
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (Saoudi Arabia)
12 7 12 100 1,200 60
Alexis Tsipras (Greece)
11 8 11 100 1,100 90
None will lose power in 2016
20 20 22
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BRENT16Q1

What will be the closing price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil on March 31, 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
< $20
1 1 3
[$20, $40[
69 66 68 100 6,900 0
[$40, $60[
32 30 31
>= $60
1 1 2
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  LONDONMAYOR

Who will be the next mayor of London?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Sadiq Kahn (Labour)
65 64 65 109 7,085 54 1
Zac Goldsmith (Conservative)
34 34 35
Other
1 1 2
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  FREMERGENCY

Will the state of emergency in France remain in place until the end of June 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
74 74 78 100 7,400 –100
No
26 22 26
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BREXIT16

Will BREXIT happen in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The referendum won’t be held in 2016
20 21 25 100 2,000 –300
Britons will choose to remain in the EU
58 52 56 70 4,060 –110
Britons will choose to leave the EU
25 23 25

Who will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Hillary Clinton
75 72 76
Bernie Sanders
23 22 26 628 14,444 –1,204
Other
2 2 3

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2017?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
67 66 68 100 6,700 –200
No
33 32 34

Who will win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Jeb Bush
1 3
Ben Carson
3 2
Ted Cruz
18 14 18
Carly Fiorina
1 1
John Kasich
1 1 2
Marco Rubio
53 49 53 15 795 75 1
Donald Trump
34 32 34
Other
1 1

Will Donald Trump win at least one state primary or caucus in the GOP presidential primary campaign* ?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
90 88 90
No
10 10 12
GEOPOLITICS 2015  >  ZEURO15

What will be the growth* rate of the Euro Zone Real GDP in 2015?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
<= 1%
2 3
]1% – 1.4%]
2 2 4
]1.4% – 1.6%]
96 92 95
]1.6% – 2%]
1 1 6
> 2%
1 2

Who will win the White House?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The Democratic nominee
60 57 61 200 12,000 –100
The Republican nominee
37 36 38
Someone else
3 3 5

Will there be a Clinton-Bush duel?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
3 2 3
No
97 97 98

Who will be elected president of France in 2017?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Marine Le Pen (nationalist)
6 6 8
Nicolas Sarkozy (conservative)
14 14 15
François Fillon (conservative)
10 10 12
Alain Juppé (conservative)
42 38 43
François Bayrou (center)
2 2 3
Manuel Valls (socialist)
2 2 3
François Hollande (socialist)
18 17 22
Martine Aubry (socialist)
1 1
Other (including Macron, Taubira, etc.)
6 6 8

Who will win the primary race of the right and center?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
François Fillon
9 9 12
Alain Juppé
56 53 56
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
2 2 4
Bruno Le Maire
6 6 7
Nicolas Sarkozy
26 26 29
A member of the UDI party
1 2
Other
1 1 2

Will Sarkozy and/or Hollande be on the ballot on the first round of the French presidential election in 2017?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Both
26 22 26
Sarkozy only
2 2 4
Hollande only
57 56 61
Neither
19 15 19

Will the Socialist Party partake in the organization of a primary election to select a candidate for the 2017 French presidential election?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
31 30 32
No
69 68 70

Will Emmanuel Macron seek* the French presidency in 2017?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
16 12 16
No
86 84 88

Who will be the official candidate of the French Socialist Party for the 2017 presidential election?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
1) IF THERE IS A SOCIALIST PRIMARY* …
Jean-Christophe Cambadélis
1 1 2
François Hollande
53 48 52
Arnaud Montebourg
2 2 4
Ségolène Royal
2 2 4
Manuel Valls
34 33 35
Martine Aubry
2 2 4
Other (including Emmanuel Macron)
7 7 8
2) IF THERE ISN’T A SOCIALIST PRIMARY* …
Jean-Christophe Cambadélis
1 2
François Hollande
90 90 92
Arnaud Montebourg
1 1 2
Ségolène Royal
1 1 2
Manuel Valls
5 4 5
Martine Aubry
1 2
Other (including Emmanuel Macron)
3 2 3

 

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One thought on “Entering the Hypermind: HSITREP 5FEB16am

  1. Hypermind launched in May 2014, while GJOpen and PredictIt opened in october 2015. Hypermind is also a direct descendent of our NewsFutures prediction market, which operated from 2000 to 2010 and was discussed in Surowiecki’s 2004 Wisdom of Crowds. So guess who “new kids on the block” really are!

    Like

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