Something happened with Podemos

GJOpen closed the question, not sure what the outcome is.

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GITREP 20feb16am

south-carolina-gop-map540

Military

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 46%

 

.

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 54%

 

.

Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

.

Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 5%

 

.

China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 96%

 

.

Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4%

 

.

Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 97%

 

.

Hostile force projection

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 14%

 

.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 47%

 

.

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 9%

 

.

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 75%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 21%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 4%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 29%

 

.

Iran

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 43%

 

.

Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 55%

 

.

Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 24%

 

.

ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 43%

 

.

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 88%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 9%

 

.

North Korea

Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 98%

 

.

Counterinsurgency

Colombia

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 52%

 

.

Counterterrorism

Ethiopia

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

.

Burundi

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 57%

 

.

Myanmar

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 15%

 

.

Iran

Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 1%

 

.

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 76%

 

.

Political

Political instability

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 100%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 0%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 0%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 86%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 0%

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 22%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 78%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Iran

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor.

Branch Forecast
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Highly unlikely: 15%
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran Highly unlikely: 11%
No Likely: 74%

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 93%

 

.

US

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

.

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Likely: 78%
A Republican Unlikely: 22%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly likely: 94%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly unlikely: 6%

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in September’s Russian State Duma elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
At least two-thirds of all seats Highly unlikely: 14%
At least one-half but less than two-thirds Likely: 79%
Less than half Highly unlikely: 7%

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Highly unlikely: 7%
No Highly likely: 93%

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

.

Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 3%
No Highly likely: 94%

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

.

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 67%

 

.

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 16%

 

.

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 8%

 

.

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 11%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 2%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Highly likely: 87%

US

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 1%
Donald Trump Unlikely: 33%
Marco Rubio Unlikely: 33%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Unlikely: 33%

Economic

Capital controls

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

.

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

.

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 9%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 77%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 0%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Ask me later: 53%
More than 250,000 Ask me later: 47%

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 4%

 

.

Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Economic force projection through trade agreements

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 80%

 

.

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 26%

 

.

Economic instability

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Germany

When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Before 13 March 2016 Highly unlikely: 5%
Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive Unlikely: 35%
Not before 1 July 2016 Likely: 60%

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

HITREP 13Feb16pm

gop

Who will win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Jeb Bush
6 6 7 200
Ben Carson
1 1
Ted Cruz
18 18 19
Carly Fiorina
1 1
John Kasich
3 2 3 300 900 –900
Marco Rubio
24 24 25 50 1,200 –1,344 1
Donald Trump
49 49 50 -23 1,173 –207 1
Other
1 1
bitcoin
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BTC1606

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day during the last week of june 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
>= 250k
56 50 56 105
[200k, 250k[
25 25 29 100 2,500 –900 1
[150k, 200k[
10 10 11
< 150k
9 9 13
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BREXIT16

Will BREXIT happen in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The referendum won’t be held in 2016
25 21 22 200
Britons will choose to remain in the EU
57 57 58 70 3,990 –180 1
Britons will choose to leave the EU
25 21 22 -10 750 –40

Who will win the White House?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The Democratic nominee
65 61 64 200 13,000 900
The Republican nominee
35 34 35
Someone else
2 2 5
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BYEBYE16

Which national leader below will be first to lose power in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Bashar al-Assad (Syria)
8 8 9 100 800 –900
Abdelaziz Bouteflika (Algeria)
35 35 36 1,404
Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela)
15 15 16 100 1,500 –129
Dilma Rousseff (Brasil)
9 8 9 100 900 –500
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (Saoudi Arabia)
6 6 7 100 600 –540
Alexis Tsipras (Greece)
6 6 7 100 600 –410
None will lose power in 2016
21 21 22
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  FREMERGENCY

Will the state of emergency in France remain in place until the end of June 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
71 69 73 100 7,100 –400 1
No
30 27 31
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  LONDONMAYOR

Who will be the next mayor of London?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Sadiq Kahn (Labour)
73 70 73 708
Zac Goldsmith (Conservative)
30 27 30
Other
2 3
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  PODEMOSGOV

Will Podemos be part of the next Spanish government?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
29 29 38
No
71 62 71 3,793
dem.jpg

Who will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Hillary Clinton
72 71 72
Bernie Sanders
27 27 28 723 19,521 1,118
Other
1 1 2
brent
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BRENT16Q1

What will be the closing price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil on March 31, 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
< $20
5 3 5 400
[$20, $40[
73 70 74 500
[$40, $60[
23 23 24
>= $60
1 1

Will there be a Clinton-Bush duel?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
3 3 6 100 300 –24 1
No
97 94 97

HITREP 7FEB16pm

CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BTC1606

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day during the last week of june 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
>= 250k
52 47 52 100 5,200 105
[200k, 250k[
28 28 33 100 2,800 –600
[150k, 200k[
11 11 16
< 150k
9 9 10
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BREXIT16

Will BREXIT happen in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The referendum won’t be held in 2016
21 21 23 100 2,100 –200
Britons will choose to remain in the EU
54 52 54 70 3,780 –390
Britons will choose to leave the EU
25 25 27

Who will win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Jeb Bush
1 1 3
Ben Carson
1 2
Ted Cruz
19 16 18
Carly Fiorina
1 2
John Kasich
3 3 4
Marco Rubio
43 40 42 59 2,537 –295
Donald Trump
40 38 40
Other
1 1
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  PODEMOSGOV

Will Podemos be part of the next Spanish government?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
39 35 38
No
62 62 65 300 18,600 1,993
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BYEBYE16

Which national leader below will be first to lose power in 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Bashar al-Assad (Syria)
11 11 13 100 1,100 –600
Abdelaziz Bouteflika (Algeria)
39 31 39 100 3,900 1,304
Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela)
10 11 14 100 1,000 –629
Dilma Rousseff (Brasil)
7 7 12 100 700 –700
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (Saoudi Arabia)
10 6 10 100 1,000 –140
Alexis Tsipras (Greece)
6 6 10 100 600 –410
None will lose power in 2016
23 19 23

Who will win the White House?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
The Democratic nominee
62 61 63 200 12,400 300
The Republican nominee
37 35 37
Someone else
2 2 4
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  LONDONMAYOR

Who will be the next mayor of London?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Sadiq Kahn (Labour)
67 64 69 109 7,303 272
Zac Goldsmith (Conservative)
32 29 34
Other
1 1 2
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  BRENT16Q1

What will be the closing price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil on March 31, 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
< $20
1 1 2
[$20, $40[
68 66 68 100 6,800 –100
[$40, $60[
33 30 32
>= $60
1 1 2

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2017?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
70 67 70 100 7,000 100
No
33 30 33

Who will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Hillary Clinton
72 72 73
Bernie Sanders
26 24 26 628 16,328 680
Other
2 2 3
CRUEL WORLD 2016  >  FREMERGENCY

Will the state of emergency in France remain in place until the end of June 2016?
 Outcomes Last Sell Buy  State  Shares  Valuation  Profit  Orders
Yes
76 76 78 100 7,600 100
No
24 22 24

PITREP 07FEB16am

Is it a good business proposition to run a prediction market?

My friend morrell pointed out these tweets from Michael Story of Good Judgment, Inc., a firm which sells forecasting services based on survey-format crowds. Michael tweeted:

Concidentally, about the same time I heard about this tweet, I got this message from PredictIt.org:

PredictIt had a very busy night last Monday as the results from Iowa were coming in. Not only did many of you want to place trades, but we had many other visitors to the site, who were watching your activities closely and refreshing pages regularly.

As a result, the site was often frustratingly slow to load. I want you to know that we are working around the clock to improve performance during these times of increased traffic. But it is going to take us some time to ramp up.

Granted, they are a funded nonprofit research project, but a fair portion of their funding comes from the sizeable 18% rake on cash-outs, and it looks like they are doing just fine.

Emile Servan-Schreiber, of Hypermind, had this to say:

I’m not sure what kind of prediction market he is talking about. Betfair has been doing very well since 1999 or so. Intrade failed only due to mismanagement, after 10 years of spectacular growth despite adverse US regulations. PredictIt is doing very well despite regulatory limits, and growing fast. IPredict in NZ had been doing fine for almost a decade until they had to shut down only because the gvt passed new regulations forbidding its existence. These are all real-money markets, which is a proven, robust business model.

Michael is right that public-facing play-money markets are much harder to sustain. When the participants don’t pay to play, the money has to come from somewhere else. Advertising is not a solution (not enough eyeballs), and sponsorships are hard to come by unless your predictions have a superb track-record. This is where the Superforecasters & Hypermind models (essentially the same) are promising. Instead of going after large crowds (like GJOpen), rely instead on a relatively small but carefully selected group of excellent forecasters and consolidate their forecasts for sponsors who really need them. Whether you use a prediction market (Hypermind) or a survey platform (GJ) to consolidate the forecasts makes no difference in terms of accuracy. There are pros and cons to each method, and individual forecasters may prefer one platform or the other depending on their availability, familiarity with markets, and appetite for competition.

So the question is whether a play-money prediction market which is a front for a market-research firm can do well.  My model of GJ, Inc. and its site GJOpen is that it is developing a McKinsey & Co-style market research business model.  They are leading with the hook that they are an IARPA child, but I don’t see them growing that way, in the same sense that Google behind the scenes may do some Government work (in particular they have a lot of natural language processing patents which are obviously of interest, plus the secure cloud business), but Google’s bread and butter is not the national security industry per se.