Beware the barrier option

iphonecoffin0

It was 74.8MM units.  Moral of the story: When people say “it could just about happen” and the level is a fixed barrier, the forecast has to be: 50%.  I know this already, I know better, my bad, I was just ignoring what I know.

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Jan 26, 2016 08:00PM UTC Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? 100.0% 1.742 1.416 0.326
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