SITREP 22JAN16pm

047eb7f9-b440-479e-b4fd-06ad88c54a70

Military

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 29%

 

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Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 98%

 

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Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

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North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 9%

 

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Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 15%

 

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Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 28%

 

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Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Hostile force projection

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

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North Korea

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 64%

 

.

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 16%

 

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Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 63%

 

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ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 36%

 

.

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 82%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 4%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 4%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 13%

 

.

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 68%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 25%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 7%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 30%

 

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Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 29%

 

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Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 39%

 

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Political

Political instability

Iran

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

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Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 4%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Ask me later: 55%
No Unlikely: 41%

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 64%

 

.

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 17%

 

.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 16%

 

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Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 81%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 18%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 1%

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

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Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 96%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 3%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 1%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 95%

 

.

US

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 41%

 

.

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 35%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 0%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 65%

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 6%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Unlikely: 24%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 70%

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 90%

 

.

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Highly likely: 100%
A Republican Highly unlikely: 0%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 38%

 

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UK,EU

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 85%

 

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Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 8%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 3%
No Highly likely: 89%

None

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Unlikely: 40%
Marco Rubio Ask me later: 45%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 15%

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

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UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 25%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 75%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 0%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 0%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Highly likely: 100%

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 70%

 

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Economic

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Capital controls

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 12%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 74%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Ask me later: 53%

 

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IMF

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Someone from outside Europe Highly unlikely: 17%
Someone else from Europe Highly unlikely: 8%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Likely: 75%

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

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Economic force projection through trade agreements

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 21%

 

.

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 85%

 

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Unique events affecting key commercial rates

US

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 87%

 

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Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 3%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Likely: 70%
More than 250,000 Unlikely: 27%

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

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Economic instability

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

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US

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 175,000 Highly unlikely: 18%
More than 225,000 Unlikely: 20%
Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive Likely: 62%
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