GJOpen year-end closings

Here’s how I rolled on the year-end questions (excluding S-300 which was cancelled).  A few marginal comments under the Accuracy Score:

 


Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016? 100.0% 0.000 0.000 -0.000

Got lucky, I don’t know RCEP

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016? 100.0% 0.000 0.000 -0.000

Got lucky, I don’t know Montenegro

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016? 97.5207% 0.006 0.033 -0.027

I picked the right side of a contentious question about paperwork

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year? 100.0% 0.143 0.059 0.084

I should have gone with original gut which is an old movie is an old movie

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program? 100.0% 0.880 0.824 0.056

I really thought they would, manufacturing economies are suffering now

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? 100.0% 0.002 0.001 0.001

No brainer, no juice in this question, everybody knew it wasn’t happening

Dec 29, 2015 11:00PM UTC As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? 100.0% 0.448 0.540 -0.092

Just followed better players on this

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? 100.0% 0.016 0.015 0.002

If I’d followed my gut I would have said 0 the whole way, was playing it safe

Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? 100.0% 0.003 0.010 -0.007

Cruz wouldn’t dare when he wants to be President and people didn’t like it when he did it last time

Jan 06, 2016 01:30AM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? 100.0% 0.953 0.492 0.461

KJU is a bigger gambler than I anticipated

Dec 30, 2015 05:00PM UTC What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? 100.0% 0.579 0.257 0.321

I was tracking this one around but I guess crowd was ahead of me

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