06JAN16pm SITREP

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Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 70%

 

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Economic

Economic instability

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

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South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

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US

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 175,000 Unlikely: 23%
Between 175,000 and 225,00, inclusive Likely: 57%
More than 225,000 Unlikely: 20%

Capital controls

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 15%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 70%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 15%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

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Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 36%

 

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IMF

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Someone from outside Europe Highly unlikely: 15%
Someone else from Europe Highly unlikely: 9%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Likely: 76%

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Iran

Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 96%

 

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Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 8%

 

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Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 14%

 

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Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 1%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Likely: 56%
More than 250,000 Unlikely: 43%

None

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 92%

 

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Economic force projection through trade agreements

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 17%

 

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Political

Political instability

Taiwan

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Majority Likely: 71%
Plurality Unlikely: 28%
Not a plurality Highly unlikely: 1%

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 50%

 

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Will Syria hold elections for its national government before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

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Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 16%

 

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Iran

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 91%

 

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Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 2%
No Highly likely: 98%

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 45%

 

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Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

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Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 10%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 10%
Both Highly unlikely: 1%
Neither Likely: 79%

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 96%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 3%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 1%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

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Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 95%

 

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UK,EU

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Likely: 78%

 

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Military

Hostile force projection

North Korea

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 57%

 

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Russia

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 74%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 21%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 5%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 32%

 

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Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 28%

 

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France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 19%

 

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ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 48%

 

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Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Likely: 78%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 5%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 14%

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 12%

 

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Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 44%

 

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Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Ask me later: 45%

 

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Iran

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 49%

 

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De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 30%

 

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Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 14%

 

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Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 18%

 

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Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

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Iran

Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 90%

 

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Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 12%

 

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Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 24%

 

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Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 98%

 

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China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 86%

 

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North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

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Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

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