Some GJOpen crowd statistics

These are based on my observations, not official stats, so results not guaranteed reliable.

Current registered GJOpen Population: 18,377 more or less

newforecasterspd

The maximum here is 6,707 which is 36.5% of the total registered of 18,377. That is, about 2/3rds of the people who register never make a forecast or comment:

totalforecasterspd

fpd

pctactiveforecasterspd.png

Here’s an interesting picture which is a little fatter than the last time I did this, but still looks about the same.  6,707 people forecast at least one question, the median being 3:

qpf

This one cries out for a table since the numbers to the right are hard to read graphically (guess what, I’m the one who answered 115 questions).   What this table says is that 5% of the active population is doing most of the heavy lifting:

#Questions #Forecasters % of 6,707 Cum %
115 1 0.015% 0.0%
114 2 0.030% 0.0%
112 1 0.015% 0.1%
111 2 0.030% 0.1%
107 1 0.015% 0.1%
105 1 0.015% 0.1%
104 1 0.015% 0.1%
102 1 0.015% 0.1%
101 2 0.030% 0.2%
100 1 0.015% 0.2%
98 1 0.015% 0.2%
96 2 0.030% 0.2%
95 1 0.015% 0.3%
93 1 0.015% 0.3%
92 2 0.030% 0.3%
91 1 0.015% 0.3%
89 2 0.030% 0.3%
88 3 0.045% 0.4%
87 1 0.015% 0.4%
86 1 0.015% 0.4%
85 1 0.015% 0.4%
84 3 0.045% 0.5%
81 3 0.045% 0.5%
80 2 0.030% 0.6%
79 2 0.030% 0.6%
78 4 0.060% 0.6%
77 1 0.015% 0.7%
75 3 0.045% 0.7%
74 2 0.030% 0.7%
71 2 0.030% 0.8%
70 1 0.015% 0.8%
69 2 0.030% 0.8%
68 4 0.060% 0.9%
67 2 0.030% 0.9%
65 2 0.030% 0.9%
64 4 0.060% 1.0%
63 3 0.045% 1.0%
62 3 0.045% 1.1%
61 3 0.045% 1.1%
60 2 0.030% 1.1%
58 1 0.015% 1.2%
57 1 0.015% 1.2%
56 5 0.075% 1.3%
55 6 0.089% 1.3%
54 5 0.075% 1.4%
53 1 0.015% 1.4%
52 4 0.060% 1.5%
51 3 0.045% 1.5%
50 4 0.060% 1.6%
49 6 0.089% 1.7%
48 3 0.045% 1.7%
47 7 0.104% 1.8%
46 4 0.060% 1.9%
45 1 0.015% 1.9%
44 9 0.134% 2.0%
43 5 0.075% 2.1%
42 3 0.045% 2.2%
41 8 0.119% 2.3%
40 3 0.045% 2.3%
39 13 0.194% 2.5%
38 7 0.104% 2.6%
37 5 0.075% 2.7%
36 6 0.089% 2.8%
35 10 0.149% 2.9%
34 12 0.179% 3.1%
33 14 0.209% 3.3%
32 7 0.104% 3.4%
31 10 0.149% 3.6%
30 6 0.089% 3.7%
29 17 0.253% 3.9%
28 9 0.134% 4.1%
27 16 0.239% 4.3%
26 14 0.209% 4.5%
25 20 0.298% 4.8%
24 24 0.358% 5.2%
23 16 0.239% 5.4%
22 20 0.298% 5.7%
21 20 0.298% 6.0%
20 31 0.462% 6.5%
19 30 0.447% 6.9%
18 42 0.626% 7.5%
17 52 0.775% 8.3%
16 48 0.716% 9.0%
15 40 0.596% 9.6%
14 62 0.924% 10.5%
13 78 1.163% 11.7%
12 91 1.357% 13.1%
11 103 1.536% 14.6%
10 108 1.610% 16.2%
9 152 2.266% 18.5%
8 217 3.235% 21.7%
7 219 3.265% 25.0%
6 299 4.458% 29.4%
5 384 5.725% 35.2%
4 475 7.082% 42.2%
3 695 10.362% 52.6%
2 1166 17.385% 70.0%
1 2013 30.013% 100.0%

If you then ask, “how many people have a negative total Accuracy score”, i.e. how many people beat the crowd in sum of Accuracy over all questions they answered, this is going to be a smaller number.  Note, I am calculating Brier score per question branch, treating each branch as a separate question, so for multi-part questions, my calculation will differ from GJOpen. There are a few questions we can ask.  First is, overall, what is the distribution of accuracy, irrespective of the number of questions answered.  It looks like this, and tells us that exactly 1/3rd of our population beats the crowd, which is a good start:

accuracy.png

Next we might ask what how many people beat the crowd who have answered 1, 2, …, 115 questions.  We know how many accurate forecasters there are.  Then the question is how many accurate busy forecasters there are, i.e. forecasters who, day in, day out, take whatever is thrown at them and crank out a crowd-beating forecast.  Let’s see:

abf

Well, this is another picture that’s hard to read without a table.  What it’s saying is that you’ve got around 700 one-hit-wonders out of 1386 who happened to answer one question right on the money.  Then they went home.  That’s 10% of the active population.  The numbers get a whole lot smaller when you consider busy forecasters, i.e. people answering 20% or more of the available questions.  To my mind, these are the people who are the best model for professional analysts who, day-in, day-out, have to forecast some workload of questions, whether they are in a good mood or not.  So let’s look at the table:

#Questions #Forecasters Cum #Fcsters % of 1386 Cum %
74 1 1 0.072% 0.1%
69 1 2 0.072% 0.1%
68 1 3 0.072% 0.2%
64 1 4 0.072% 0.3%
62 1 5 0.072% 0.4%
61 1 6 0.072% 0.4%
57 1 7 0.072% 0.5%
49 1 8 0.072% 0.6%
48 3 11 0.216% 0.8%
44 1 12 0.072% 0.9%
40 1 13 0.072% 0.9%
36 1 14 0.072% 1.0%
35 1 15 0.072% 1.1%
34 3 18 0.216% 1.3%
33 1 19 0.072% 1.4%
32 1 20 0.072% 1.4%
28 1 21 0.072% 1.5%
26 1 22 0.072% 1.6%
25 2 24 0.144% 1.7%
24 1 25 0.072% 1.8%
23 2 27 0.144% 1.9%
22 1 28 0.072% 2.0%
20 2 30 0.144% 2.2%
19 1 31 0.072% 2.2%
18 5 36 0.361% 2.6%
17 4 40 0.289% 2.9%
16 5 45 0.361% 3.2%
15 3 48 0.216% 3.5%
14 6 54 0.433% 3.9%
13 10 64 0.722% 4.6%
12 6 70 0.433% 5.1%
11 14 84 1.010% 6.1%
10 13 97 0.938% 7.0%
9 9 106 0.649% 7.6%
8 22 128 1.587% 9.2%
7 23 151 1.659% 10.9%
6 37 188 2.670% 13.6%
5 55 243 3.968% 17.5%
4 101 344 7.287% 24.8%
3 107 451 7.720% 32.5%
2 214 665 15.440% 48.0%
1 721 1386 52.020% 100.0%

So if we set our cutoff point for busy-ness at 25 questions, then a grand total of 24 people out of 18,377 registrants are doing most of the heavy lifting.  That’s 0.13% of the total.

Now, to be a little bloody-minded, we could ask what would happen if 18,377 people flipped a fair coin 25 times, with the coin coming out heads more than half the time.  I think I want to say 18377 time 2 to the -24th power times 100 to get the percentage.  That might get you a number like 0.10% of the total.  So we’re ahead.  By 0.03%.  So are these people skilled or just lucky?  Hard to say.  But if they answered 25 questions, at least they’re busy, and they’re having fun.

Beware the barrier option

iphonecoffin0

It was 74.8MM units.  Moral of the story: When people say “it could just about happen” and the level is a fixed barrier, the forecast has to be: 50%.  I know this already, I know better, my bad, I was just ignoring what I know.

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Jan 26, 2016 08:00PM UTC Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? 100.0% 1.742 1.416 0.326

SITREP 30JAN16am

ddg54-1a

Military

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 39%

 

.

Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

.

North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 96%

 

.

Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

.

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 51%

 

.

Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 35%

 

.

Hostile force projection

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 14%

 

.

Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 60%

 

.

Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 22%

 

.

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 13%

 

.

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 60%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 31%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 9%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 23%

 

.

North Korea

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 72%

 

.

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

.

ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 51%

 

.

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 85%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

Political

Political instability

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 22%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 78%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

.

Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 2%
No Highly likely: 96%

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Likely: 61%
No Unlikely: 37%

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 81%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 18%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 1%

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Iran

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 96%

 

.

None

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 3%
Donald Trump Ask me later: 54%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 14%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 25%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 4%

US

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly likely: 94%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly unlikely: 6%

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 55%

 

.

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 35%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 0%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 65%

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Likely: 71%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Unlikely: 29%

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 2%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 2%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Highly likely: 96%

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

.

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Likely: 71%
A Republican Unlikely: 29%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 28%

 

.

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 31%

 

.

UK,EU

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Likely: 79%

 

.

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 100%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 0%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 0%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 19%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 8%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Likely: 73%

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 64%

 

.

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 17%

 

.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 22%

 

.

Economic

Economic force projection through trade agreements

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 88%

 

.

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 18%

 

.

Capital controls

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Ask me later: 48%

 

.

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 9%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 77%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

.

IMF

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Someone from outside Europe Highly unlikely: 2%
Someone else from Europe Highly unlikely: 2%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Highly likely: 96%

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 3%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Likely: 70%
More than 250,000 Unlikely: 27%

Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 12%

 

.

Economic instability

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

US

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 175,000 Unlikely: 22%
More than 225,000 Highly unlikely: 16%
Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive Likely: 62%

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 76%

 

.

SITREP 26Jan16 pm

broken-iphone-4s-irepair-seattle

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Likely: 76%

 

.

Military

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

.

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 51%

 

.

China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 28%

 

.

North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 10%

 

.

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 39%

 

.

Hostile force projection

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 19%

 

.

Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 60%

 

.

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 11%

 

.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Unlikely: 34%

 

.

North Korea

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 64%

 

.

ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Ask me later: 51%

 

.

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 85%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 13%

 

.

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 60%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 31%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 9%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 23%

 

.

Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Unlikely: 22%

 

.

Political

Political instability

Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 5%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 2%
No Highly likely: 93%

UK,EU

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 82%

 

.

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 6%

 

.

Iran

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Likely: 64%

 

.

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 17%

 

.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 22%

 

.

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Likely: 61%
No Unlikely: 37%

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Unlikely: 31%

 

.

US

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Ask me later: 48%

 

.

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 35%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 0%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 65%

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 6%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 2%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Highly likely: 92%

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 94%

 

.

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Highly likely: 100%
A Republican Highly unlikely: 0%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 22%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 78%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

None

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 3%
Donald Trump Ask me later: 54%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 14%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 25%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 4%

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 2%

 

.

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 18%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 11%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Likely: 71%

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 3%

 

.

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 100%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 0%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 0%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 81%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 18%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 1%

Economic

Economic force projection through trade agreements

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 18%

 

.

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly likely: 88%

 

.

Capital controls

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 7%

 

.

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Ask me later: 48%

 

.

IMF

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Someone from outside Europe Highly unlikely: 2%
Someone else from Europe Highly unlikely: 2%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Highly likely: 96%

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 9%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 77%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 12%

 

.

Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 3%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Likely: 70%
More than 250,000 Unlikely: 27%

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly likely: 100%

 

.

Economic instability

US

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 175,000 Unlikely: 22%
More than 225,000 Highly unlikely: 16%
Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive Likely: 62%

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast: Highly unlikely: 0%

 

.

SITREP 23JAN16pm

nasa1

Public Health

Pandemics

Africa

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Likely: 70%

.

Economic

Environment

California

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly likely: 100%

.

Economic instability

Venezuela

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 6%

.

US

How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 175,000 Unlikely: 21%
More than 225,000 Unlikely: 20%
Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive Likely: 59%

South Africa

Will Moody’s downgrade South Africa’s government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 0%

.

Unique events affecting key commercial rates

Germany

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 11%

.

Global

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 125,000 Highly unlikely: 3%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Likely: 70%
More than 250,000 Unlikely: 27%

US

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly likely: 87%

.

Panama

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 0%

.

Capital controls

Turkey

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Ask me later: 53%

.

IMF

Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Someone from outside Europe Highly unlikely: 8%
Someone else from Europe Highly unlikely: 3%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Highly likely: 89%

Malaysia

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 7%

.

Iran

How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forums 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Above 75 Highly unlikely: 9%
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Likely: 77%
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Highly unlikely: 14%
In the top 50 Highly unlikely: 0%

Economic force projection through trade agreements

Asia

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly likely: 85%

.

US,EU

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Unlikely: 21%

.

Military

Hostile force projection

Russia

Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 13%

.

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
0 Likely: 68%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Unlikely: 25%
More than five, but less than all Highly unlikely: 7%
All Highly unlikely: 0%

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Unlikely: 30%

.

North Korea

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Likely: 64%

.

Turkey

Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Unlikely: 29%

.

ISIS

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Unlikely: 41%

.

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
No Highly likely: 85%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Highly unlikely: 2%
Yes, only Article 5 Highly unlikely: 3%
Yes, only Article 4 Highly unlikely: 10%

Global

Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Likely: 60%

.

China

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 11%

.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Unlikely: 34%

.

France

Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 16%

.

Counterespionage

China,Russia

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Unlikely: 39%

.

De-escalation of hostilities among ancient enemies

Iran,Saudi Arabia

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 0%

.

Montenegro

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Unlikely: 28%

.

North Korea

Will six party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 6%

.

Russia,Japan

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 11%

.

Israel,Palestine

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 10%

.

China

Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly likely: 100%

.

Russia,US

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 3%

.

Iran

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 6%

.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Unlikely: 29%

.

Political

Political instability

Greece,EU

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 2%

.

Spain

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Podemos Highly unlikely: 14%
Ciudadanos Highly unlikely: 9%
Both Highly unlikely: 0%
Neither Likely: 77%

UK

Who will be the next mayor of London?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Zac Goldsmith Unlikely: 22%
Sadiq Khan Likely: 78%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

Uganda

Who will win Uganda’s next presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yoweri Museveni Highly likely: 96%
Amama Mbabazi Highly unlikely: 3%
Kizza Besigye Highly unlikely: 1%
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%

UK,EU

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly likely: 85%

.

Brazil

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 3%

.

Italy

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 6%

.

Eritrea

How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Less than 10,000 Highly likely: 81%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive Highly unlikely: 18%
More than 15,000 Highly unlikely: 1%

Myanmar

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly likely: 100%

.

None

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
None of the above Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Unlikely: 40%
Marco Rubio Ask me later: 45%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 15%

Ukraine

Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed.

Branch Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine Highly unlikely: 4%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine Ask me later: 55%
No Unlikely: 41%

Afghanistan

Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Unlikely: 38%

.

Saudi Arabia

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Yes, Someone else Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Highly unlikely: 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Highly unlikely: 8%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Highly unlikely: 3%
No Highly likely: 89%

US

Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Unlikely: 41%

.

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Unlikely: 35%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Highly unlikely: 0%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 65%

Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Hillary Clinton Highly unlikely: 0%
Martin O’Malley Highly unlikely: 0%
Bernie Sanders Highly likely: 100%

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
Jeb Bush Highly unlikely: 0%
Ben Carson Highly unlikely: 0%
Chris Christie Highly unlikely: 0%
Ted Cruz Highly unlikely: 6%
Carly Fiorina Highly unlikely: 0%
Jim Gilmore Highly unlikely: 0%
Mike Huckabee Highly unlikely: 0%
John Kasich Highly unlikely: 0%
Rand Paul Highly unlikely: 0%
Marco Rubio Unlikely: 24%
Rick Santorum Highly unlikely: 0%
Donald Trump Likely: 70%

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party’s nomination on the first ballot, at the party’s convention in July?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral. Forecast:

Highly likely: 94%

.

Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?

US Govt presumed position: Neutral.

Branch Forecast
A Democrat Highly likely: 100%
A Republican Highly unlikely: 0%
Other Highly unlikely: 0%

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 0%

.

Syria

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Likely: 64%

.

Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 17%

.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

US Govt presumed position: Favor. Forecast:

Highly unlikely: 16%

.

Iran

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections?

US Govt presumed position: Opposed. Forecast:

Highly likely: 100%

.

Some GJOpen Iran questions close

I think I scored OK on these but there are bugs in the system so I don’t know accuracy score yet, will comment and update when the bugs are fixed:

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Jan 17, 2016 08:00PM UTC Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016? N/A 0.001 N/A N/A
Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? N/A 0.214 N/A N/A
Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016? 100.0% 0.035 0.103 -0.069

Game theory: Robert Levinson

levison

Some people are dropping crumbs to the Times.

Let’s say the IRGC has him or has his bones in a ditch somewhere.

This is kind of a POW/MIA question, bordering on a USS Liberty kind of question when it comes to the quality of long-term relations between the intelligence services of Iran and the US (yes, there will always be some kind of relations).

At this stage, can Iran come clean or will they deny no matter what?

This is a classic game theory question.  What are the payoffs and the outcomes?  Who are the actors?