“Models read my book”

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Epic boast by Scott Adams, the author of Dilbert, regarding his Wizard Theory on demagogues, which he used to support his appreciation of Donald Trump, in particular the idea that Trump may win the Iowa Caucus and beyond because he is a 3-Dimensional Thinker and the rest of them aren’t.  In particular, that Trump has been able to

  • Reframe Iraq as “not a country”, thus spinning the dial to a different channel in which we can’t lose the war in Iraq (because it doesn’t exist), and presumably then it is our natural role is to eradicate all the Gertrude Bell-contrived lines and let the natives sort themselves out into terrorities comprising distinct ethnic subgroups.  Kind of like things were 100 years ago, before Bell mucked things up.  Never mind that Iran and Turkey might not play ball when it comes to an independent Kurdistan, any more than England has been historically supportive of the idea of an independent Scotland or Ireland.
  • By befriending Putin, reframe himself as Roosevelt with Stalin at Yalta rather than as the Hitler he appears to be based on his immigration policies.

I am discussing this cartoonist’s theories on politics and international relations because they have met with approval in the comments section of GJOpen and caused one Superforecaster™ to push the assessed likelihood of a Trump Iowa win from 12% to 25%.  This is not totally inconsistent with Real Clear Politics poll average giving Trump 26.9% on average of the vote and Cruz 30.3%.

It’s the spread that counts in a photo-finish horse race.  The Eastern Iowa Gazette says Cruz is better organized and better connected to Iowa Caucus voters, so based on that I would give Cruz the nod.  That said, I guess it’s fair to allow Trump 25% as long as you bear in mind that the other 75% is owned by Cruz as I write this.

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