KSA ISIS blowback scenario

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GL2814 pointed out this Al-Monitor article to me and asked “is Richard Haas right?”…about, I guess, blowback in KSA of support for ISIS, which comes in the form of private donations and young citizens going off to war for ISIS and Al Queda in other countries.

The blowback highlighted by the Al-Monitor article is the idea that the young KSA citizens will return to overthrow the kingdom in favor of the “Islamic caliphate“.

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I don’t really see this happening, because my sense is that the Saudi royals enjoy, from first-class Saudi citizens and the odd wannabe,

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the same affection and deference as exists in England for Princess Diana

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or in Japan for Emperor Akihito.

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In other words, the Saudi royals are untouchable and orthogonal to everyday ambitions, including ones of politics and jihad.

So this leads us to a bit of source analysis.  According to Wikipedia, though some people think Al-Monitor is a Shiite tool, I note that the Rand Corporation is on the board.  There has been no recorded meeting in history, for any purpose, of any old white guy from Rand

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and any living mullah from Qom.

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No mullahs from Qom on the board, no Shiite bias.  Suppose Al-Monitor is written by old white guys in Pasadena.

Then how do we read this article?  As wishful thinking?  Trying to make the guys in igals and ghutras living in Riyadh a little paranoid?

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Or is it to make other old white guys in the United States less likely to think that KSA has been up to no good, so they will cut KSA some slack, which will result in some maneuvering room needed by the current administration?  Just asking.  I have no clue.

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One thought on “KSA ISIS blowback scenario

  1. I guess this goes back to two things. One is the end of the reign Sudairi Seven and the other is the pronouncements by Haass. Robert D. Kaplan talked about the internal political struggle that would ensue after Salman has passed in his latest book – The Revenge of Geography: http://www.amazon.com/Revenge-Geography-Coming-Conflicts-Against/dp/0812982223/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1451351353&sr=8-1&keywords=the+revenge+of+geography+robert+d.+kaplan

    Haass has similar views:
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/868f3396-a319-11e4-9c06-00144feab7de.html#axzz3vfMaT4MY

    http://www.cfr.org/middle-east-and-north-africa/saudi-arabia-threat-isis-only-grow/p36026

    The binary aspects are an increasingly desperate Daesh and a politically unstable Saudi Arabia.

    The global aspect is how do Iran and Saudi Arabia make the peace in the Middle East? It looks like all that Iran has to do is play nice and wait until KSA is weak to make the peace. How is Saudi Arabia not hosed?

    GL2184 only pawn in game of life: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKRma7PDW10

    Like

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