Source analysis base case

I was going to raise my estimate for Hillary in New Hampshire based on this poll:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

However, someone has kindly performed some deep source analysis which puts the poll into context:

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

This poll was pulling down Bernie’s clear lead as reflected here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

This will now my standard example for the importance of source analysis, because it is local, easily grasped, and involves no spooky Kreminology.

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