Post-Christmas to-dos

  • Situation Report: Generate a situation report from my median analysis which is more big picture and puts the open questions into summary perspective.  I.e. a kind of “where the world is headed” report which is totally automated and based on current forecasts.
  • A simulation model: Build and run some simulation models for questions that are amenable to it.
  • A game theory model:  Build and run some static game theory models for questions that are amenable to it.
  • A game model: Build and run a game based on a question.  This is not game theory, folks.  Actual game playing and game construction is not game theory.  Game theory is almost a branch of economics in intent and practice.
  • A probabilistic logic model: Try out that Swedish logic on some questions.  This may be the most promising as it is relatively static along question branch lines and the questions give “implied” probabilities that the logic should adapt to  or be consistent with in some way.
  • Some fancy source analysis: Especially for the S-300 question, as an aftcasting exercise!
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