Early Christmas gift: Accidental clustering

It appears that the double median filter is actually a pretty good clustering mechanism, see below for detailed results, wrapped in holiday colors!

 

IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16 Prior Update Diff
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 30.66
Outliers 1 80, 100, 75, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 7.31
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 15, 20, 25
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.088 80
patrickmeehan5 0.057 0
fifty-sixty 0.056 0
clinton 0.056 0
Jean-Pierre 0.053 0
974david 0.051 25
Mroochyslav 0.049 0
Wagle 0.048 20
einsteinjs 0.039 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
madre 0.038 0
Raisinville 0.038 0
slobodan 0.036 100
christianmaas 0.034 0
TVANKSTA 0.034 75
GeneH 0.033 0
KSpain 0.033 15
malcmur 0.032 0
cmeinel 0.032 0
austerity 0.032 0
dkc 0.032 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.031 0
lsgold7 0.030 0
Travist 0.030 75
6.40 or more 100 98 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 96.00
Std Dev 1 41.03
Outliers 1 5, 5, 0, 0, 3, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 100.00
Std Dev 2 16.74
Inliers 2 68, 75, 79, 85, 95, 97, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.088 5
patrickmeehan5 0.057 95
fifty-sixty 0.056 97
clinton 0.056 100
Jean-Pierre 0.053 100
974david 0.051 35
Mroochyslav 0.049 79
Wagle 0.048 5
einsteinjs 0.039 100
Clairvoyance 0.039 100
madre 0.038 100
Raisinville 0.038 100
slobodan 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.034 75
TVANKSTA 0.034 0
GeneH 0.033 100
KSpain 0.033 3
malcmur 0.032 68
cmeinel 0.032 100
austerity 0.032 100
dkc 0.032 100
k13rkeg44rd 0.031 100
lsgold7 0.030 85
Travist 0.030 0
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 0 2 2
FILTER 1
Median 1 1.50
Std Dev 1 10.26
Outliers 1 25, 25, 32, 25
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 6.21
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 5, 5, 7, 10
Outliers 2 15, 15, 21
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.088 15
patrickmeehan5 0.057 5
fifty-sixty 0.056 3
clinton 0.056 0
Jean-Pierre 0.053 0
974david 0.051 25
Mroochyslav 0.049 21
Wagle 0.048 10
einsteinjs 0.039 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
madre 0.038 0
Raisinville 0.038 0
slobodan 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.034 25
TVANKSTA 0.034 5
GeneH 0.033 0
KSpain 0.033 7
malcmur 0.032 32
cmeinel 0.032 0
austerity 0.032 0
dkc 0.032 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.031 0
lsgold7 0.030 15
Travist 0.030 25
Less than 6.30 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 19.58
Outliers 1 65, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 5.09
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 15, 20
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.088 0
patrickmeehan5 0.057 0
fifty-sixty 0.056 0
clinton 0.056 0
Jean-Pierre 0.053 0
974david 0.051 15
Mroochyslav 0.049 0
Wagle 0.048 65
einsteinjs 0.039 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
madre 0.038 0
Raisinville 0.038 0
slobodan 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.034 0
TVANKSTA 0.034 20
GeneH 0.033 0
KSpain 0.033 75
malcmur 0.032 0
cmeinel 0.032 0
austerity 0.032 0
dkc 0.032 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.031 0
lsgold7 0.030 0
Travist 0.030 0
IFP6. Asian Trilateral Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 20.06
Outliers 1 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 3.07
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2
Outliers 2 15
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.086 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 0
clinton 0.058 0
Wagle 0.054 15
974david 0.049 0
patrickmeehan5 0.045 0
Mroochyslav 0.044 0
slobodan 0.041 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
Raisinville 0.039 0
einsteinjs 0.037 0
christianmaas 0.037 0
cmeinel 0.036 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
GeneH 0.035 0
CR 0.032 100
lsgold7 0.032 0
Travist 0.032 0
hyperionok 0.031 2
jeremylichtman 0.031 0
scholarandcat 0.031 0
jkbick 0.030 0
Manfred 0.030 0
IFP7. Jason Rezaian Prior Update Diff
Yes 61 61 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 63.50
Std Dev 1 30.31
Outliers 1 0, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 67.00
Std Dev 2 26.29
Inliers 2 15, 15, 20, 25, 35, 42, 50, 50, 60, 62, 65, 69, 70, 70, 71, 75, 75, 85, 90, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.087 100
fifty-sixty 0.061 70
Jean-Pierre 0.059 25
clinton 0.059 35
Wagle 0.054 15
974david 0.050 75
patrickmeehan5 0.045 50
slobodan 0.041 100
Clairvoyance 0.040 60
Raisinville 0.039 50
einsteinjs 0.037 71
christianmaas 0.037 62
cmeinel 0.037 69
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 100
GeneH 0.035 70
banda311 0.033 15
CR 0.033 0
lsgold7 0.032 20
Travist 0.032 90
hyperionok 0.031 75
jeremylichtman 0.031 85
scholarandcat 0.031 42
Manfred 0.030 0
Amir 0.030 65
IFP8. NK LICBM Prior Update Diff
Yes 64 62 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 65.00
Std Dev 1 27.50
Outliers 1 9
FILTER 2
Median 2 65.00
Std Dev 2 25.90
Inliers 2 15, 19, 23, 27, 32, 41, 45, 45, 63, 65, 65, 65, 70, 70, 75, 77, 80, 85, 87, 90, 96, 98, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.090 87
Jean-Pierre 0.061 45
clinton 0.061 77
Wagle 0.056 15
974david 0.052 85
patrickmeehan5 0.047 80
Mroochyslav 0.046 41
slobodan 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.041 70
Raisinville 0.040 45
einsteinjs 0.038 96
christianmaas 0.038 23
cmeinel 0.038 65
CR 0.034 98
lsgold7 0.033 90
Travist 0.033 70
hyperionok 0.032 75
jeremylichtman 0.032 32
scholarandcat 0.032 63
jkbick 0.031 65
Manfred 0.031 9
Amir 0.031 19
malcmur 0.030 27
austerity 0.030 65
IFP9. Venezuela Default Prior Update Diff
Yes 5 9 4
FILTER 1
Median 1 9.00
Std Dev 1 25.06
Outliers 1 99, 65
FILTER 2
Median 2 6.50
Std Dev 2 16.18
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 5, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 25, 25, 30, 33
Outliers 2 45, 59
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
patrickmeehan5 0.063 99
clinton 0.061 8
Mroochyslav 0.054 59
Wagle 0.052 15
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.041 10
slobodan 0.040 0
hyperionok 0.038 45
christianmaas 0.037 33
TVANKSTA 0.037 65
GeneH 0.036 0
malcmur 0.036 5
cmeinel 0.036 12
austerity 0.035 25
scholarandcat 0.033 1
Anneinak 0.033 11
dada 0.032 5
Rebel ran riot 0.032 0
donmars 0.032 30
jeremylichtman 0.031 1
jkbick 0.030 25
Manfred 0.029 0
IFP12. OPEC quota Prior Update Diff
Yes 1 1 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 17.43
Outliers 1 85
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 5.89
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Outliers 2 15, 25
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.087 0
patrickmeehan5 0.057 1
fifty-sixty 0.056 0
clinton 0.056 0
Jean-Pierre 0.052 0
974david 0.051 85
Mroochyslav 0.049 0
Wagle 0.047 15
einsteinjs 0.039 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
madre 0.038 0
Raisinville 0.038 0
slobodan 0.036 3
hyperionok 0.035 5
christianmaas 0.034 4
TVANKSTA 0.033 25
GeneH 0.033 0
malcmur 0.032 8
cmeinel 0.032 0
austerity 0.032 0
dkc 0.031 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.031 0
lsgold7 0.030 0
Travist 0.030 1
IFP13. Venice Lesbophobes Prior Update Diff
Yes 10 10 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.00
Std Dev 1 26.42
Outliers 1 75, 99, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.00
Std Dev 2 12.52
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 5, 5, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 15, 15, 18, 18, 20, 35
Outliers 2 55
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.108 0
clinton 0.073 4
Wagle 0.067 15
974david 0.062 75
patrickmeehan5 0.056 99
slobodan 0.051 1
Clairvoyance 0.049 10
Raisinville 0.049 18
Manfred 0.038 0
ed3 0.037 10
malcmur 0.036 7
austerity 0.036 18
madre 0.034 5
mparrault 0.034 13
john27 0.033 15
JJMLP 0.031 20
Anneinak 0.031 0
TVANKSTA 0.027 75
deannebridget 0.027 10
ccameron 0.026 35
yaifuz26 0.025 55
Heffalump 0.025 10
ravel 0.023 5
Marius 0.022 10
IFP14. Africa polio Prior Update Diff
Yes 67 67 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 61.00
Std Dev 1 27.94
Outliers 1 5, 5, 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 63.00
Std Dev 2 19.66
Inliers 2 38, 40, 40, 45, 50, 55, 55, 60, 60, 62, 63, 67, 67, 70, 80, 80, 90, 95, 95, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.095 100
Jean-Pierre 0.064 80
clinton 0.064 63
Wagle 0.059 95
974david 0.054 5
patrickmeehan5 0.049 5
slobodan 0.045 1
Clairvoyance 0.043 40
Raisinville 0.042 67
cmeinel 0.040 67
GeneH 0.038 50
dkc 0.036 55
Travist 0.035 95
hyperionok 0.034 90
scholarandcat 0.034 55
ed3 0.032 80
malcmur 0.032 38
austerity 0.031 62
madre 0.030 100
Khalid 0.030 60
mparrault 0.029 60
john27 0.029 45
lindsey 0.028 40
JJMLP 0.027 70
IFP15. Assad Out Prior Update Diff
Yes 20 20 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 22.50
Std Dev 1 32.65
Outliers 1 95, 90, 90, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 19.00
Std Dev 2 22.32
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 5, 10, 14, 15, 15, 15, 18, 20, 20, 25, 25, 33, 35, 50, 59
Outliers 2 75, 75
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.086 95
fifty-sixty 0.061 33
Jean-Pierre 0.058 10
clinton 0.058 14
Wagle 0.054 5
974david 0.049 35
patrickmeehan5 0.045 15
Mroochyslav 0.044 59
slobodan 0.041 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 20
Raisinville 0.039 20
einsteinjs 0.037 90
christianmaas 0.037 18
cmeinel 0.037 75
GeneH 0.035 75
dkc 0.032 25
CR 0.032 0
lsgold7 0.032 90
Travist 0.032 50
hyperionok 0.031 15
jeremylichtman 0.031 100
scholarandcat 0.031 25
jkbick 0.030 15
Manfred 0.030 0
IFP17. Iran KSA party Prior Update Diff
Yes 3 3 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 1.50
Std Dev 1 15.18
Outliers 1 61, 45
FILTER 2
Median 2 1.00
Std Dev 2 6.68
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 10, 11
Outliers 2 30
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
fifty-sixty 0.063 5
Jean-Pierre 0.060 10
clinton 0.060 1
974david 0.051 30
patrickmeehan5 0.046 11
Mroochyslav 0.046 61
slobodan 0.042 4
Clairvoyance 0.040 0
Raisinville 0.040 0
christianmaas 0.038 6
cmeinel 0.038 3
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 0
banda311 0.034 1
dkc 0.033 2
CR 0.033 0
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 0
hyperionok 0.032 10
jeremylichtman 0.032 45
scholarandcat 0.032 1
Manfred 0.031 0
Amir 0.031 0
malcmur 0.030 2
IFP18. TTIP Prior Update Diff
Yes 26 26 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 28.00
Std Dev 1 30.35
Outliers 1 99, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 26.50
Std Dev 2 24.08
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 10, 20, 25, 25, 28, 28, 30, 32, 35, 40, 48, 65, 65, 69
Outliers 2 80
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.092 0
patrickmeehan5 0.060 99
clinton 0.058 69
Jean-Pierre 0.055 25
974david 0.054 10
Mroochyslav 0.052 65
einsteinjs 0.041 2
Clairvoyance 0.041 10
madre 0.040 1
Raisinville 0.039 25
slobodan 0.038 100
hyperionok 0.036 40
christianmaas 0.036 48
TVANKSTA 0.035 35
malcmur 0.034 0
cmeinel 0.034 28
austerity 0.034 28
dkc 0.033 30
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
lsgold7 0.032 65
Travist 0.031 80
scholarandcat 0.031 32
Khalid 0.031 20
Anneinak 0.031 5
IFP19. Iran G7 party Prior Update Diff
Yes 53 54 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 55.00
Std Dev 1 32.21
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 55.00
Std Dev 2 32.21
Inliers 2 0, 1, 2, 10, 25, 25, 25, 40, 40, 40, 50, 55, 55, 63, 72, 75, 75, 75, 82, 85, 95, 99, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.088 95
fifty-sixty 0.062 72
Jean-Pierre 0.059 50
clinton 0.059 82
974david 0.050 75
patrickmeehan5 0.045 99
Mroochyslav 0.045 25
slobodan 0.042 1
Clairvoyance 0.040 40
Raisinville 0.039 40
einsteinjs 0.037 85
christianmaas 0.037 55
cmeinel 0.037 63
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 100
GeneH 0.035 10
banda311 0.033 75
CR 0.033 100
lsgold7 0.032 25
Travist 0.032 25
hyperionok 0.032 75
jeremylichtman 0.031 2
scholarandcat 0.031 40
Manfred 0.031 0
Amir 0.030 55
IFP22. Dilma Rousseff resign Prior Update Diff
Yes 6 6 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 29.89
Outliers 1 97, 95, 90
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.00
Std Dev 2 8.77
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 12, 15, 15, 17, 19
Outliers 2 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.084 0
clinton 0.058 3
fifty-sixty 0.057 15
Jean-Pierre 0.055 5
patrickmeehan5 0.051 97
974david 0.051 15
Mroochyslav 0.049 19
einsteinjs 0.046 0
Clairvoyance 0.041 0
Raisinville 0.039 0
madre 0.039 95
slobodan 0.038 0
Rebel ran riot 0.036 0
GeneH 0.036 3
christianmaas 0.034 35
cmeinel 0.034 17
austerity 0.034 5
k13rkeg44rd 0.032 0
Travist 0.031 90
scholarandcat 0.031 10
Anneinak 0.031 5
banda311 0.031 12
ed3 0.031 5
dkc 0.030 1
IFP25. Walking Dead Prior Update Diff
Glenn 24 27 3
FILTER 1
Median 1 22.00
Std Dev 1 21.43
Outliers 1 99
FILTER 2
Median 2 26.14
Std Dev 2 15.06
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 5, 10, 12, 15, 15, 20, 20, 24, 29, 30, 32, 32, 34, 35, 40, 40, 45, 45
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 99
Delorean 0.080 15
Rebel ran riot 0.064 0
Mroochyslav 0.063 0
JP 0.053 45
Hammer Time 0.052 10
dada 0.048 40
Raisinville 0.045 20
cdob63 0.043 29
petth 0.042 0
malcmur 0.041 32
Ossipon 0.037 15
TVANKSTA 0.036 5
gearhart5k 0.035 45
GJDrew 0.035 32
Doina 0.033 40
Clairvoyance 0.029 20
ben 0.029 30
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 34
Fsugirl24 0.025 35
000 0.025 24
NickLutz 0.024 12
yaifuz26 0.024 0
ravel 0.024 4
All of the above will survive season 6 38 38 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 32.50
Std Dev 1 28.55
Outliers 1 99, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 39.22
Std Dev 2 21.89
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 8, 11, 20, 20, 25, 30, 30, 35, 38, 40, 40, 50, 52, 60, 60, 60, 65
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 0
Delorean 0.080 60
Rebel ran riot 0.064 99
Mroochyslav 0.063 100
JP 0.053 40
Hammer Time 0.052 60
dada 0.048 40
Raisinville 0.045 8
cdob63 0.043 1
petth 0.042 0
malcmur 0.041 11
Ossipon 0.037 35
TVANKSTA 0.036 0
gearhart5k 0.035 20
GJDrew 0.035 30
Doina 0.033 20
Clairvoyance 0.029 60
ben 0.029 30
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 1
Fsugirl24 0.025 65
000 0.025 38
NickLutz 0.024 50
yaifuz26 0.024 25
ravel 0.024 52
Rick 1 0 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 7.12
Outliers 1 24, 25, 15
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.44
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2
Outliers 2 3, 4, 5
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 1
Delorean 0.080 0
Rebel ran riot 0.064 0
Mroochyslav 0.063 0
JP 0.053 0
Hammer Time 0.052 0
dada 0.048 0
Raisinville 0.045 24
cdob63 0.043 2
petth 0.042 0
malcmur 0.041 4
Ossipon 0.037 5
TVANKSTA 0.036 25
gearhart5k 0.035 0
GJDrew 0.035 3
Doina 0.033 0
Clairvoyance 0.029 0
ben 0.029 0
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 0
Fsugirl24 0.025 0
000 0.025 1
NickLutz 0.024 0
yaifuz26 0.024 15
ravel 0.024 0
Carl 3 4 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 3.00
Std Dev 1 13.87
Outliers 1 50, 45
FILTER 2
Median 2 1.96
Std Dev 2 7.85
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 16
Outliers 2 18, 24, 25
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 0
Delorean 0.080 0
Rebel ran riot 0.064 0
Mroochyslav 0.063 0
JP 0.053 0
Hammer Time 0.052 5
dada 0.048 10
Raisinville 0.045 24
cdob63 0.043 18
petth 0.042 50
malcmur 0.041 16
Ossipon 0.037 5
TVANKSTA 0.036 45
gearhart5k 0.035 0
GJDrew 0.035 3
Doina 0.033 0
Clairvoyance 0.029 0
ben 0.029 0
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 5
Fsugirl24 0.025 0
000 0.025 3
NickLutz 0.024 5
yaifuz26 0.024 25
ravel 0.024 0
Carol 15 19 4
FILTER 1
Median 1 15.00
Std Dev 1 14.03
Outliers 1 50
FILTER 2
Median 2 19.61
Std Dev 2 12.48
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 10, 10, 12, 15, 15, 15, 15, 18, 19, 20, 22, 25, 35, 35, 39
Outliers 2 40
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 0
Delorean 0.080 15
Rebel ran riot 0.064 0
Mroochyslav 0.063 0
JP 0.053 15
Hammer Time 0.052 10
dada 0.048 10
Raisinville 0.045 0
cdob63 0.043 39
petth 0.042 50
malcmur 0.041 19
Ossipon 0.037 35
TVANKSTA 0.036 5
gearhart5k 0.035 35
GJDrew 0.035 12
Doina 0.033 40
Clairvoyance 0.029 20
ben 0.029 25
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 5
Fsugirl24 0.025 0
000 0.025 15
NickLutz 0.024 18
yaifuz26 0.024 15
ravel 0.024 22
Daryl 19 12 -7
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.50
Std Dev 1 12.71
Outliers 1 55
FILTER 2
Median 2 13.07
Std Dev 2 9.03
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 10, 11, 15, 15, 15, 18, 19, 20, 20, 20, 22, 24
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.086 0
Delorean 0.080 10
Rebel ran riot 0.064 0
Mroochyslav 0.063 0
JP 0.053 0
Hammer Time 0.052 15
dada 0.048 0
Raisinville 0.045 24
cdob63 0.043 11
petth 0.042 0
malcmur 0.041 18
Ossipon 0.037 5
TVANKSTA 0.036 20
gearhart5k 0.035 0
GJDrew 0.035 20
Doina 0.033 0
Clairvoyance 0.029 0
ben 0.029 15
UnderwaterPutin 0.026 55
Fsugirl24 0.025 0
000 0.025 19
NickLutz 0.024 15
yaifuz26 0.024 20
ravel 0.024 22
IFP29. Iran SWIFT Prior Update Diff
Yes 96 96 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 95.00
Std Dev 1 27.33
Outliers 1 5, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 96.00
Std Dev 2 12.25
Inliers 2 85, 87, 90, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 97, 97, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 55, 65, 70
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 100
clinton 0.060 100
fifty-sixty 0.058 95
Jean-Pierre 0.056 97
patrickmeehan5 0.052 5
974david 0.052 65
Mroochyslav 0.050 85
Clairvoyance 0.042 99
Raisinville 0.040 70
madre 0.040 100
slobodan 0.039 100
Rebel ran riot 0.037 0
donmars 0.037 87
cmeinel 0.035 97
austerity 0.034 100
JP 0.033 99
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 100
Travist 0.032 90
scholarandcat 0.032 95
Anneinak 0.032 95
banda311 0.032 95
dkc 0.031 100
hyperionok 0.030 55
Khalid 0.030 95
IFP30. Grexit Prior Update Diff
Yes 2 2 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 2.00
Std Dev 1 5.61
Outliers 1 25
FILTER 2
Median 2 2.00
Std Dev 2 3.50
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7
Outliers 2 10, 13
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
patrickmeehan5 0.058 0
fifty-sixty 0.057 2
clinton 0.057 4
Jean-Pierre 0.054 3
974david 0.052 5
Mroochyslav 0.050 5
einsteinjs 0.040 0
Clairvoyance 0.040 0
madre 0.039 0
Raisinville 0.038 0
slobodan 0.037 2
hyperionok 0.035 25
christianmaas 0.035 7
TVANKSTA 0.034 0
malcmur 0.033 3
cmeinel 0.033 5
austerity 0.033 13
dkc 0.032 5
k13rkeg44rd 0.032 0
lsgold7 0.031 0
Travist 0.031 0
scholarandcat 0.031 10
Anneinak 0.030 0
IFP31. WTI Prior Update Diff
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive 50 92 42
FILTER 1
Median 1 82.50
Std Dev 1 37.01
Outliers 1 0, 0, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 90.00
Std Dev 2 29.83
Inliers 2 35, 35, 41, 75, 80, 80, 85, 90, 90, 90, 90, 95, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 10, 20, 30
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.061 0
fifty-sixty 0.060 90
clinton 0.060 99
Jean-Pierre 0.057 95
974david 0.055 35
Mroochyslav 0.053 41
einsteinjs 0.042 0
Clairvoyance 0.042 90
madre 0.041 80
Raisinville 0.040 100
slobodan 0.039 0
hyperionok 0.037 20
christianmaas 0.037 35
TVANKSTA 0.036 30
GeneH 0.035 100
KSpain 0.035 100
malcmur 0.035 85
cmeinel 0.035 75
austerity 0.035 80
dkc 0.034 90
k13rkeg44rd 0.034 100
lsgold7 0.032 99
Travist 0.032 10
scholarandcat 0.032 90
Less than $34.00 per barrel 50 8 -42
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.00
Std Dev 1 32.90
Outliers 1 100, 100, 90
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.00
Std Dev 2 20.15
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15, 20, 20, 25
Outliers 2 59, 60, 65
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.061 0
fifty-sixty 0.060 10
clinton 0.060 1
Jean-Pierre 0.057 5
974david 0.055 5
Mroochyslav 0.053 59
einsteinjs 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.042 10
madre 0.041 20
Raisinville 0.040 0
slobodan 0.039 100
hyperionok 0.037 5
christianmaas 0.037 65
TVANKSTA 0.036 60
GeneH 0.035 0
KSpain 0.035 0
malcmur 0.035 15
cmeinel 0.035 25
austerity 0.035 20
dkc 0.034 10
k13rkeg44rd 0.034 0
lsgold7 0.032 1
Travist 0.032 90
scholarandcat 0.032 10
IFP34. South China ADIZ Prior Update Diff
Yes 42 42 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 41.50
Std Dev 1 31.42
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 41.50
Std Dev 2 31.42
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 3, 8, 10, 10, 15, 30, 30, 30, 33, 50, 51, 55, 60, 61, 66, 72, 75, 80, 85, 89, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 72
fifty-sixty 0.062 30
Jean-Pierre 0.060 30
clinton 0.060 51
974david 0.051 85
patrickmeehan5 0.046 89
Mroochyslav 0.046 61
slobodan 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.040 30
Raisinville 0.040 3
christianmaas 0.038 8
cmeinel 0.038 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 0
banda311 0.034 66
dkc 0.033 50
CR 0.033 0
lsgold7 0.033 80
Travist 0.033 75
hyperionok 0.032 55
jeremylichtman 0.032 10
scholarandcat 0.032 33
jkbick 0.031 60
Manfred 0.031 10
Amir 0.031 15
IFP35. Jurassic World Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 1 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 30.24
Outliers 1 99, 75, 99
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 7.40
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 5, 10, 10
Outliers 2 33
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.069 99
Delorean 0.064 0
madre 0.055 0
einsteinjs 0.054 0
Rebel ran riot 0.051 0
Mroochyslav 0.051 0
Xu 0.050 0
donmars 0.044 0
JP 0.043 0
Hammer Time 0.042 10
wlmsears 0.040 10
dada 0.038 0
jeremylichtman 0.038 0
BlackJackBones 0.037 33
Testbravo52 0.036 75
Raisinville 0.036 0
Khalid 0.035 0
cdob63 0.035 0
petth 0.034 5
malcmur 0.033 0
Ossipon 0.030 0
TVANKSTA 0.029 99
hyperionok 0.028 1
austerity 0.028 0
IFP36. Adnan Syed Prior Update Diff
Yes 13 13 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 15.00
Std Dev 1 15.59
Outliers 1 50, 60
FILTER 2
Median 2 14.00
Std Dev 2 11.35
Inliers 2 0, 0, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 13, 13, 15, 15, 15, 20, 21, 25, 25, 25, 25, 33
Outliers 2 45
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.094 5
madre 0.075 3
Hammer Time 0.057 0
BlackJackBones 0.050 21
Testbravo52 0.050 25
Raisinville 0.049 10
cdob63 0.047 4
petth 0.046 50
malcmur 0.045 5
TVANKSTA 0.039 15
GJDrew 0.038 25
jnord 0.038 25
AngrySloth 0.037 25
Doina 0.036 5
praedico 0.035 60
Clairvoyance 0.032 0
ben 0.032 15
Heffalump 0.030 15
clinton 0.030 33
cmeinel 0.030 13
UnderwaterPutin 0.029 5
000 0.027 13
NickLutz 0.027 20
yaifuz26 0.027 45
IFP38. Trump Iowa
Prior Update Diff
Yes 12 11 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 9.00
Std Dev 1 28.17
Outliers 1 100, 95
FILTER 2
Median 2 7.00
Std Dev 2 17.25
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 5, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 20, 20, 33, 35, 35, 35
Outliers 2 45, 59
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.076 0
Falconer 0.064 100
Raisinville 0.055 8
Mroochyslav 0.051 59
dada 0.050 0
madre 0.050 0
Rebel ran riot 0.049 0
einsteinjs 0.047 1
Anneinak 0.043 5
malcmur 0.043 35
TVANKSTA 0.040 35
ccameron 0.039 33
ed3 0.036 45
slobodan 0.036 0
cdob63 0.034 6
k13rkeg44rd 0.034 0
cmeinel 0.033 12
austerity 0.032 5
wlmsears 0.032 35
petth 0.032 20
JP 0.032 10
admiralporky 0.031 0
Hammer Time 0.031 95
nls 0.030 20
IFP39. Clinton New Hampshire Prior Update Diff
Yes 48 68 20
FILTER 1
Median 1 60.00
Std Dev 1 26.23
Outliers 1 5
FILTER 2
Median 2 60.00
Std Dev 2 23.82
Inliers 2 33, 40, 41, 45, 45, 50, 55, 55, 60, 60, 60, 65, 65, 75, 82, 85, 85, 87, 99, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 10
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.078 5
Falconer 0.065 100
Raisinville 0.056 55
Mroochyslav 0.052 41
dada 0.051 60
madre 0.051 100
Rebel ran riot 0.049 99
Delorean 0.048 40
Anneinak 0.044 33
malcmur 0.043 82
ccameron 0.040 65
slobodan 0.037 100
cdob63 0.034 87
cmeinel 0.034 50
Khalid 0.034 45
austerity 0.033 55
wlmsears 0.033 60
petth 0.032 75
admiralporky 0.032 60
Hammer Time 0.031 10
nls 0.031 85
Doina 0.030 85
yaifuz26 0.030 65
Markmsl 0.030 45
IFP40. IRA Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 8.16
Outliers 1 40
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 2.24
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 5, 10
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.086 0
clinton 0.060 0
fifty-sixty 0.059 0
Jean-Pierre 0.056 0
patrickmeehan5 0.053 0
974david 0.052 5
einsteinjs 0.048 0
Clairvoyance 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.041 0
madre 0.040 0
slobodan 0.039 0
GeneH 0.037 0
christianmaas 0.035 0
cmeinel 0.035 0
austerity 0.035 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
scholarandcat 0.032 0
Anneinak 0.032 0
banda311 0.032 10
ed3 0.032 0
CR 0.031 0
hyperionok 0.030 40
malcmur 0.030 0
lsgold7 0.030 0
IFP44. Goodell Prior Update Diff
Yes 99 97 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 98.00
Std Dev 1 7.30
Outliers 1 75, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 98.00
Std Dev 2 4.58
Inliers 2 90, 90, 90, 95, 95, 95, 98, 98, 98, 98, 99, 99, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 85, 87
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.080 100
Delorean 0.075 99
madre 0.064 100
einsteinjs 0.063 100
Rebel ran riot 0.059 99
JP 0.050 100
Hammer Time 0.048 90
dada 0.044 99
Raisinville 0.042 99
cdob63 0.040 98
petth 0.039 75
malcmur 0.038 98
hyperionok 0.033 98
austerity 0.032 87
GJDrew 0.032 90
Rather Witless Design 0.032 100
AngrySloth 0.031 75
Doina 0.031 85
jimglynn 0.029 95
nerzhin 0.028 95
grossz18 0.028 98
Clairvoyance 0.027 100
ben 0.027 90
brian 0.027 95
IFP45. Syrian refugees Prior Update Diff
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 15 8 -7
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 26.36
Outliers 1 85, 85
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.00
Std Dev 2 18.32
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 30, 40, 41
Outliers 2 45, 50, 50
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
fifty-sixty 0.063 30
Jean-Pierre 0.060 5
clinton 0.060 0
974david 0.051 0
patrickmeehan5 0.046 85
Mroochyslav 0.046 41
slobodan 0.042 0
Clairvoyance 0.040 50
Raisinville 0.040 40
einsteinjs 0.038 0
cmeinel 0.038 50
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 0
GeneH 0.036 5
dkc 0.033 10
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 5
hyperionok 0.032 45
jeremylichtman 0.032 0
scholarandcat 0.032 2
Amir 0.031 1
ed3 0.030 85
FuturoMAGE 0.030 10
malcmur 0.030 10
1 million or more 85 92 7
FILTER 1
Median 1 90.00
Std Dev 1 35.39
Outliers 1 0, 0, 0, 15
FILTER 2
Median 2 95.00
Std Dev 2 20.66
Inliers 2 59, 60, 70, 90, 90, 90, 95, 95, 95, 98, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 35, 50, 50
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
fifty-sixty 0.063 70
Jean-Pierre 0.060 95
clinton 0.060 100
974david 0.051 0
patrickmeehan5 0.046 0
Mroochyslav 0.046 59
slobodan 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.040 50
Raisinville 0.040 60
einsteinjs 0.038 100
cmeinel 0.038 50
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 100
GeneH 0.036 95
dkc 0.033 90
lsgold7 0.033 100
Travist 0.033 95
hyperionok 0.032 35
jeremylichtman 0.032 100
scholarandcat 0.032 98
Amir 0.031 99
ed3 0.030 15
FuturoMAGE 0.030 90
malcmur 0.030 90
IFP46. Bitcoin Prior Update Diff
More than 250,000 44 46 2
FILTER 1
Median 1 40.50
Std Dev 1 32.48
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 44.75
Std Dev 2 32.48
Inliers 2 0, 0, 5, 5, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 30, 40, 41, 48, 50, 50, 50, 55, 60, 80, 90, 99, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.080 25
clinton 0.076 90
patrickmeehan5 0.058 0
Mroochyslav 0.058 41
slobodan 0.053 100
Clairvoyance 0.051 50
Raisinville 0.051 5
cmeinel 0.048 50
k13rkeg44rd 0.046 0
jeremylichtman 0.040 10
malcmur 0.038 11
austerity 0.037 80
madre 0.036 55
mparrault 0.035 30
john27 0.034 17
Dima K 0.032 13
Anneinak 0.032 100
boz 0.031 48
redacted 0.029 99
deannebridget 0.028 60
ccameron 0.027 15
yaifuz26 0.026 5
donmars 0.026 40
Heffalump 0.026 50
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 54 52 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 50.00
Std Dev 1 29.78
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 55.25
Std Dev 2 29.78
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 10, 20, 20, 40, 43, 44, 50, 50, 50, 55, 55, 59, 62, 70, 70, 75, 80, 86, 90, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.080 70
clinton 0.076 10
patrickmeehan5 0.058 0
Mroochyslav 0.058 59
slobodan 0.053 0
Clairvoyance 0.051 50
Raisinville 0.051 70
cmeinel 0.048 50
k13rkeg44rd 0.046 100
jeremylichtman 0.040 90
malcmur 0.038 86
austerity 0.037 20
madre 0.036 44
mparrault 0.035 62
john27 0.034 75
Dima K 0.032 80
Anneinak 0.032 0
boz 0.031 43
redacted 0.029 1
deannebridget 0.028 40
ccameron 0.027 55
yaifuz26 0.026 20
donmars 0.026 55
Heffalump 0.026 50
Less than 125,000 2 3 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.50
Std Dev 1 24.40
Outliers 1 100, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 7.92
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 5, 5, 7, 8, 8, 9
Outliers 2 25, 30
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.080 5
clinton 0.076 0
patrickmeehan5 0.058 100
Mroochyslav 0.058 0
slobodan 0.053 0
Clairvoyance 0.051 0
Raisinville 0.051 25
cmeinel 0.048 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.046 0
jeremylichtman 0.040 0
malcmur 0.038 3
austerity 0.037 0
madre 0.036 1
mparrault 0.035 8
john27 0.034 8
Dima K 0.032 7
Anneinak 0.032 0
boz 0.031 9
redacted 0.029 0
deannebridget 0.028 0
ccameron 0.027 30
yaifuz26 0.026 75
donmars 0.026 5
Heffalump 0.026 0
IFP47. iPhones Prior Update Diff
Yes 89 89 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 89.00
Std Dev 1 23.54
Outliers 1 5, 25
FILTER 2
Median 2 89.00
Std Dev 2 12.41
Inliers 2 65, 65, 80, 80, 85, 85, 85, 85, 89, 89, 89, 90, 95, 97, 98, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 55
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.073 89
Delorean 0.068 100
madre 0.058 95
einsteinjs 0.057 100
Rebel ran riot 0.054 99
Mroochyslav 0.053 89
Xu 0.052 97
dada 0.040 100
jeremylichtman 0.040 65
BlackJackBones 0.039 98
Raisinville 0.038 100
Falconer 0.037 100
Khalid 0.037 85
cdob63 0.036 89
petth 0.035 90
aaseawaf15 0.035 80
malcmur 0.035 85
mudcathi 0.033 5
Ossipon 0.031 80
TVANKSTA 0.030 85
hyperionok 0.030 85
austerity 0.029 65
Woodcroc 0.029 25
GJDrew 0.029 55
IFP48. Taiwan DPP
Prior Update Diff
Majority 50 50 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 47.50
Std Dev 1 27.15
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 50.00
Std Dev 2 27.15
Inliers 2 0, 10, 15, 20, 20, 25, 26, 30, 30, 35, 41, 45, 50, 57, 59, 65, 70, 70, 70, 72, 75, 88, 91, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.074 50
Jean-Pierre 0.069 75
patrickmeehan5 0.065 10
Clairvoyance 0.052 0
Raisinville 0.050 30
madre 0.049 70
slobodan 0.048 100
donmars 0.045 30
GeneH 0.045 70
austerity 0.042 70
Anneinak 0.039 88
ed3 0.039 20
malcmur 0.037 41
lsgold7 0.037 91
TVANKSTA 0.035 65
Doina 0.033 20
mparrault 0.033 35
john27 0.033 26
ccameron 0.033 25
JJMLP 0.031 15
Dima K 0.029 72
yaifuz26 0.029 45
boz 0.028 57
cdob63 0.026 59
Plurality 47 47 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 45.50
Std Dev 1 23.37
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 47.89
Std Dev 2 23.37
Inliers 2 0, 9, 12, 23, 26, 30, 30, 30, 35, 35, 38, 41, 50, 50, 54, 58, 65, 65, 67, 70, 75, 75, 75, 90
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.074 50
Jean-Pierre 0.069 23
patrickmeehan5 0.065 90
Clairvoyance 0.052 50
Raisinville 0.050 65
madre 0.049 30
slobodan 0.048 0
donmars 0.045 70
GeneH 0.045 30
austerity 0.042 30
Anneinak 0.039 12
ed3 0.039 75
malcmur 0.037 54
lsgold7 0.037 9
TVANKSTA 0.035 35
Doina 0.033 75
mparrault 0.033 58
john27 0.033 67
ccameron 0.033 65
JJMLP 0.031 75
Dima K 0.029 26
yaifuz26 0.029 35
boz 0.028 38
cdob63 0.026 41
Not a plurality 3 3 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 2.00
Std Dev 1 10.40
Outliers 1 50
FILTER 2
Median 2 2.11
Std Dev 2 4.81
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 7, 10, 10
Outliers 2 20
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.074 0
Jean-Pierre 0.069 2
patrickmeehan5 0.065 0
Clairvoyance 0.052 50
Raisinville 0.050 5
madre 0.049 0
slobodan 0.048 0
donmars 0.045 0
GeneH 0.045 0
austerity 0.042 0
Anneinak 0.039 0
ed3 0.039 5
malcmur 0.037 5
lsgold7 0.037 0
TVANKSTA 0.035 0
Doina 0.033 5
mparrault 0.033 7
john27 0.033 7
ccameron 0.033 10
JJMLP 0.031 10
Dima K 0.029 2
yaifuz26 0.029 20
boz 0.028 5
cdob63 0.026 0
IFP49. USG shutdown Prior Update Diff
Yes 1 0 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 6.01
Outliers 1 30
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.17
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1
Outliers 2 3, 5
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.075 1
Falconer 0.062 0
Raisinville 0.054 30
Mroochyslav 0.050 0
dada 0.049 3
madre 0.049 0
Rebel ran riot 0.047 0
einsteinjs 0.046 0
Delorean 0.046 0
Anneinak 0.042 0
malcmur 0.042 0
ccameron 0.038 1
jeremylichtman 0.038 0
ed3 0.035 0
slobodan 0.035 0
donmars 0.035 0
cdob63 0.033 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
cmeinel 0.033 0
austerity 0.032 0
wlmsears 0.032 0
grossz18 0.031 5
petth 0.031 1
JP 0.031 0
IFP50. BOJ easing Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 1 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 34.83
Outliers 1 95, 80, 100, 99
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 11.47
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 8, 11
Outliers 2 35, 41
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.092 95
patrickmeehan5 0.060 80
fifty-sixty 0.058 0
clinton 0.058 0
Jean-Pierre 0.055 0
Mroochyslav 0.052 11
einsteinjs 0.041 0
Clairvoyance 0.041 0
madre 0.040 0
Raisinville 0.039 0
slobodan 0.038 100
hyperionok 0.036 35
christianmaas 0.035 41
GeneH 0.034 0
malcmur 0.034 8
cmeinel 0.034 0
austerity 0.034 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
lsgold7 0.032 1
scholarandcat 0.031 0
Khalid 0.031 0
Anneinak 0.031 0
dada 0.031 0
Rebel ran riot 0.031 99
IFP51. IAEA access Prior Update Diff
Yes 11 12 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 15.00
Std Dev 1 24.43
Outliers 1 85, 85
FILTER 2
Median 2 15.00
Std Dev 2 15.99
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 5, 5, 10, 10, 13, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 20, 20, 25, 25, 26
Outliers 2 59, 60
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.091 0
fifty-sixty 0.064 15
Jean-Pierre 0.061 20
clinton 0.061 2
974david 0.052 25
patrickmeehan5 0.047 5
Mroochyslav 0.047 59
slobodan 0.043 0
Clairvoyance 0.041 60
Raisinville 0.041 5
cmeinel 0.038 15
k13rkeg44rd 0.037 0
banda311 0.034 10
lsgold7 0.033 15
Travist 0.033 85
hyperionok 0.033 85
scholarandcat 0.032 13
Manfred 0.032 0
Amir 0.031 15
DBlitz 0.031 25
malcmur 0.030 20
austerity 0.030 26
madre 0.029 15
Khalid 0.028 10
IFP52. IAEA Iran stockpile Prior Update Diff
Yes 97 98 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 98.50
Std Dev 1 25.62
Outliers 1 9, 37, 20
FILTER 2
Median 2 99.00
Std Dev 2 7.75
Inliers 2 90, 95, 95, 95, 97, 98, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 75, 75, 83
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 100
fifty-sixty 0.063 95
Jean-Pierre 0.060 97
clinton 0.060 100
974david 0.051 75
patrickmeehan5 0.046 9
Mroochyslav 0.046 37
slobodan 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.040 100
Raisinville 0.040 99
einsteinjs 0.038 100
cmeinel 0.038 100
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 100
banda311 0.034 20
dkc 0.033 100
lsgold7 0.033 90
Travist 0.033 95
hyperionok 0.032 75
jeremylichtman 0.032 99
scholarandcat 0.032 100
Manfred 0.031 95
Amir 0.031 98
malcmur 0.030 83
austerity 0.029 100
IFP53. Spain ruling coalition Prior Update Diff
Podemos 25 21 -4
FILTER 1
Median 1 20.00
Std Dev 1 26.26
Outliers 1 75, 100, 80
FILTER 2
Median 2 30.77
Std Dev 2 14.40
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 20, 20, 20, 20, 25, 25, 29, 35, 40, 40
Outliers 2 50
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.064 20
patrickmeehan5 0.060 10
974david 0.060 75
Wagle 0.058 40
Mroochyslav 0.057 0
Clairvoyance 0.048 25
Raisinville 0.046 0
madre 0.046 20
slobodan 0.044 100
GeneH 0.042 40
austerity 0.040 20
KSpain 0.037 5
Anneinak 0.036 25
ed3 0.036 5
dkc 0.036 5
malcmur 0.034 50
lsgold7 0.034 80
TVANKSTA 0.033 5
dada 0.032 0
Amir 0.032 35
Doina 0.031 10
mparrault 0.031 10
john27 0.030 20
ccameron 0.030 29
Both 13 11 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 21.78
Outliers 1 80, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 7.69
Std Dev 2 12.16
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 15, 15, 20, 22, 25, 25, 25
Outliers 2 30, 41
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.064 0
patrickmeehan5 0.060 80
974david 0.060 25
Wagle 0.058 5
Mroochyslav 0.057 41
Clairvoyance 0.048 25
Raisinville 0.046 22
madre 0.046 15
slobodan 0.044 0
GeneH 0.042 0
austerity 0.040 20
KSpain 0.037 1
Anneinak 0.036 30
ed3 0.036 0
dkc 0.036 5
malcmur 0.034 0
lsgold7 0.034 0
TVANKSTA 0.033 75
dada 0.032 5
Amir 0.032 25
Doina 0.031 15
mparrault 0.031 5
john27 0.030 1
ccameron 0.030 1
Neither 27 38 11
FILTER 1
Median 1 22.50
Std Dev 1 27.92
Outliers 1 86
FILTER 2
Median 2 30.77
Std Dev 2 26.11
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 10, 15, 15, 15, 20, 25, 40, 40, 50, 55, 60, 60, 60, 70, 70, 70
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.064 70
patrickmeehan5 0.060 5
974david 0.060 0
Wagle 0.058 5
Mroochyslav 0.057 0
Clairvoyance 0.048 25
Raisinville 0.046 10
madre 0.046 60
slobodan 0.044 0
GeneH 0.042 60
austerity 0.040 60
KSpain 0.037 86
Anneinak 0.036 40
ed3 0.036 70
dkc 0.036 50
malcmur 0.034 0
lsgold7 0.034 0
TVANKSTA 0.033 15
dada 0.032 70
Amir 0.032 15
Doina 0.031 55
mparrault 0.031 40
john27 0.030 20
ccameron 0.030 15
Ciudadanos 35 30 -5
FILTER 1
Median 1 22.50
Std Dev 1 21.98
Outliers 1 68
FILTER 2
Median 2 30.77
Std Dev 2 20.52
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8, 10, 20, 20, 25, 25, 25, 25, 40, 45, 50, 50, 55, 59, 59
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.064 10
patrickmeehan5 0.060 5
974david 0.060 0
Wagle 0.058 50
Mroochyslav 0.057 59
Clairvoyance 0.048 25
Raisinville 0.046 68
madre 0.046 5
slobodan 0.044 0
GeneH 0.042 0
austerity 0.040 0
KSpain 0.037 8
Anneinak 0.036 5
ed3 0.036 25
dkc 0.036 40
malcmur 0.034 50
lsgold7 0.034 20
TVANKSTA 0.033 5
dada 0.032 25
Amir 0.032 25
Doina 0.031 20
mparrault 0.031 45
john27 0.030 59
ccameron 0.030 55
IFP55. Malaysia controls Prior Update Diff
Yes 10 10 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 13.00
Std Dev 1 22.84
Outliers 1 60, 65, 75, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.50
Std Dev 2 9.03
Inliers 2 0, 0, 3, 4, 5, 5, 7, 10, 10, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 25
Outliers 2 30, 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.073 60
clinton 0.071 3
Clairvoyance 0.050 15
Raisinville 0.048 4
slobodan 0.046 0
hyperionok 0.045 65
christianmaas 0.043 15
TVANKSTA 0.043 5
KSpain 0.042 75
malcmur 0.042 7
cmeinel 0.041 25
austerity 0.041 35
k13rkeg44rd 0.040 0
Anneinak 0.038 11
banda311 0.038 75
dada 0.038 5
donmars 0.037 10
Manfred 0.034 14
ccameron 0.034 12
petth 0.033 10
mparrault 0.032 15
john27 0.032 15
RF 0.030 30
CT Runner 0.028 10
IFP56. Winds of Winter Prior Update Diff
Yes 25 25 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 22.50
Std Dev 1 26.51
Outliers 1 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 20.00
Std Dev 2 22.60
Inliers 2 0, 0, 1, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 15, 20, 20, 25, 25, 26, 35, 40, 50, 50, 55, 65, 65
Outliers 2 75
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.096 100
Delorean 0.089 1
Raisinville 0.050 40
Khalid 0.049 35
cdob63 0.048 26
petth 0.047 20
malcmur 0.046 55
davecrosby 0.046 5
Ossipon 0.041 0
TVANKSTA 0.040 15
austerity 0.039 75
GJDrew 0.039 25
Doina 0.037 5
praedico 0.036 65
anmins 0.034 10
Clairvoyance 0.033 10
ben 0.032 10
Heffalump 0.031 50
UnderwaterPutin 0.029 20
Bosco 0.029 0
000 0.027 25
NickLutz 0.027 50
yaifuz26 0.027 65
ravel 0.027 11
IFP57. Russia food embargo Prior Update Diff
More than five, but less than all 3 3 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 2.00
Std Dev 1 35.20
Outliers 1 100, 100, 85, 99
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 10.59
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 15
Outliers 2 30, 40
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.063 100
fifty-sixty 0.062 5
clinton 0.062 3
Jean-Pierre 0.058 1
974david 0.057 15
Mroochyslav 0.055 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.042 30
slobodan 0.040 100
hyperionok 0.039 40
christianmaas 0.038 0
TVANKSTA 0.037 85
malcmur 0.036 0
cmeinel 0.036 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
Travist 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 0
banda311 0.033 5
Rebel ran riot 0.033 99
donmars 0.032 5
CR 0.032 0
jkbick 0.030 5
JP 0.030 0
0 78 74 -4
FILTER 1
Median 1 68.00
Std Dev 1 34.12
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 81.93
Std Dev 2 34.12
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 15, 25, 50, 55, 59, 65, 68, 68, 70, 70, 75, 75, 85, 85, 90, 91, 91, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.062 65
clinton 0.062 91
Jean-Pierre 0.058 90
974david 0.057 55
Mroochyslav 0.055 59
Clairvoyance 0.043 75
madre 0.042 68
Raisinville 0.042 25
slobodan 0.040 0
hyperionok 0.039 15
christianmaas 0.038 70
TVANKSTA 0.037 5
malcmur 0.036 68
cmeinel 0.036 85
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 100
Travist 0.033 5
Anneinak 0.033 91
banda311 0.033 85
Rebel ran riot 0.033 0
donmars 0.032 75
CR 0.032 100
jkbick 0.030 50
JP 0.030 70
All 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 4.32
Outliers 1 10, 15, 13
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 2.00
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3
Outliers 2 5, 5, 5, 5
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.062 10
clinton 0.062 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 3
974david 0.057 15
Mroochyslav 0.055 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.042 5
slobodan 0.040 0
hyperionok 0.039 5
christianmaas 0.038 0
TVANKSTA 0.037 5
malcmur 0.036 13
cmeinel 0.036 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
Travist 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 0
banda311 0.033 0
Rebel ran riot 0.033 0
donmars 0.032 0
CR 0.032 0
jkbick 0.030 5
JP 0.030 0
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 19 23 4
FILTER 1
Median 1 17.00
Std Dev 1 20.93
Outliers 1 95
FILTER 2
Median 2 18.07
Std Dev 2 14.38
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 6, 6, 9, 10, 15, 15, 19, 20, 20, 25, 30, 30, 32, 40, 40, 40, 41
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.062 20
clinton 0.062 6
Jean-Pierre 0.058 6
974david 0.057 15
Mroochyslav 0.055 41
Clairvoyance 0.043 25
madre 0.042 32
Raisinville 0.042 40
slobodan 0.040 0
hyperionok 0.039 40
christianmaas 0.038 30
TVANKSTA 0.037 5
malcmur 0.036 19
cmeinel 0.036 15
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
Travist 0.033 95
Anneinak 0.033 9
banda311 0.033 10
Rebel ran riot 0.033 0
donmars 0.032 20
CR 0.032 0
jkbick 0.030 40
JP 0.030 30
IFP61. Syria no-fly zone Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 1 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 15.07
Outliers 1 74
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 4.86
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 5, 5
Outliers 2 10, 11, 20
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.086 0
fifty-sixty 0.060 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 0
clinton 0.058 0
Wagle 0.053 20
974david 0.049 5
patrickmeehan5 0.044 74
Mroochyslav 0.044 11
slobodan 0.040 0
Clairvoyance 0.039 0
Raisinville 0.038 2
einsteinjs 0.037 0
christianmaas 0.036 2
cmeinel 0.036 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
GeneH 0.035 0
banda311 0.032 10
dkc 0.032 0
CR 0.032 0
lsgold7 0.031 1
Travist 0.031 0
hyperionok 0.031 5
jeremylichtman 0.031 0
scholarandcat 0.031 0
IFP62. KSA Prior Update Diff
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 2.07
Outliers 1 10
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 0.74
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1
Outliers 2 2, 3
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 0
clinton 0.059 0
fifty-sixty 0.058 0
Jean-Pierre 0.056 0
patrickmeehan5 0.052 10
974david 0.052 0
Mroochyslav 0.050 0
Clairvoyance 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.040 1
madre 0.039 0
slobodan 0.038 0
Rebel ran riot 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.035 0
cmeinel 0.034 2
austerity 0.034 0
JP 0.033 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
Travist 0.032 0
Anneinak 0.032 0
banda311 0.031 0
dkc 0.031 3
CR 0.030 0
hyperionok 0.030 0
Yes, Someone else 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 2.16
Outliers 1 9, 5
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.08
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2
Outliers 2 3, 4
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 0
clinton 0.059 0
fifty-sixty 0.058 1
Jean-Pierre 0.056 4
patrickmeehan5 0.052 0
974david 0.052 0
Mroochyslav 0.050 0
Clairvoyance 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.040 0
madre 0.039 0
slobodan 0.038 0
Rebel ran riot 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.035 0
cmeinel 0.034 0
austerity 0.034 9
JP 0.033 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
Travist 0.032 0
Anneinak 0.032 3
banda311 0.031 0
dkc 0.031 5
CR 0.030 0
hyperionok 0.030 2
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2 2 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 1.00
Std Dev 1 17.05
Outliers 1 85
FILTER 2
Median 2 1.01
Std Dev 2 4.68
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Outliers 2 15, 17
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 0
clinton 0.059 0
fifty-sixty 0.058 2
Jean-Pierre 0.056 4
patrickmeehan5 0.052 0
974david 0.052 1
Mroochyslav 0.050 17
Clairvoyance 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.040 2
madre 0.039 1
slobodan 0.038 0
Rebel ran riot 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 15
christianmaas 0.035 7
cmeinel 0.034 2
austerity 0.034 9
JP 0.033 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
Travist 0.032 0
Anneinak 0.032 2
banda311 0.031 85
dkc 0.031 3
CR 0.030 0
hyperionok 0.030 0
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0 1 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 3.85
Outliers 1 19
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.23
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2
Outliers 2 5
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 0
clinton 0.059 0
fifty-sixty 0.058 2
Jean-Pierre 0.056 2
patrickmeehan5 0.052 0
974david 0.052 0
Mroochyslav 0.050 0
Clairvoyance 0.042 0
Raisinville 0.040 2
madre 0.039 0
slobodan 0.038 0
Rebel ran riot 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 5
christianmaas 0.035 0
cmeinel 0.034 2
austerity 0.034 19
JP 0.033 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
Travist 0.032 0
Anneinak 0.032 1
banda311 0.031 0
dkc 0.031 2
CR 0.030 0
hyperionok 0.030 0
No 98 98 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 96.50
Std Dev 1 17.91
Outliers 1 15
FILTER 2
Median 2 98.99
Std Dev 2 8.70
Inliers 2 83, 87, 90, 90, 93, 94, 94, 95, 95, 98, 99, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 63, 80
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.085 100
clinton 0.059 100
fifty-sixty 0.058 95
Jean-Pierre 0.056 90
patrickmeehan5 0.052 90
974david 0.052 99
Mroochyslav 0.050 83
Clairvoyance 0.042 100
Raisinville 0.040 95
madre 0.039 99
slobodan 0.038 100
Rebel ran riot 0.037 99
GeneH 0.036 80
christianmaas 0.035 93
cmeinel 0.034 94
austerity 0.034 63
JP 0.033 100
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 100
Travist 0.032 100
Anneinak 0.032 94
banda311 0.031 15
dkc 0.031 87
CR 0.030 100
hyperionok 0.030 98
IFP63. VW Prior Update Diff
Yes 14 14 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 16.50
Std Dev 1 26.37
Outliers 1 99, 70
FILTER 2
Median 2 13.00
Std Dev 2 19.96
Inliers 2 0, 0, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 9, 10, 10, 11, 15, 18, 20, 20, 25, 32, 35, 40
Outliers 2 57, 65, 65
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.080 99
madre 0.064 10
Rebel ran riot 0.059 0
JP 0.050 2
wlmsears 0.047 20
dada 0.044 18
jeremylichtman 0.044 65
BlackJackBones 0.043 57
Raisinville 0.042 5
Falconer 0.041 0
cdob63 0.040 9
petth 0.039 10
aaseawaf15 0.039 20
malcmur 0.038 15
Anneinak 0.038 11
GP Jim 0.035 70
Ossipon 0.034 2
TVANKSTA 0.033 65
hyperionok 0.033 35
austerity 0.032 32
Woodcroc 0.032 5
AngrySloth 0.031 40
Doina 0.031 25
GeneH 0.030 5
IFP64. Putin Abe Prior Update Diff
Yes 17 17 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 20.00
Std Dev 1 24.77
Outliers 1 100, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 20.00
Std Dev 2 16.20
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 25, 25, 25, 29, 33, 45, 45
Outliers 2 60
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.086 5
fifty-sixty 0.061 25
Jean-Pierre 0.058 25
clinton 0.058 7
Wagle 0.054 20
974david 0.049 45
patrickmeehan5 0.045 33
Mroochyslav 0.044 29
slobodan 0.041 100
Clairvoyance 0.039 20
Raisinville 0.039 5
einsteinjs 0.037 20
christianmaas 0.037 25
cmeinel 0.037 20
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
GeneH 0.035 0
lsgold7 0.032 5
Travist 0.032 75
hyperionok 0.031 60
jeremylichtman 0.031 1
scholarandcat 0.031 20
jkbick 0.030 5
Manfred 0.030 0
Amir 0.030 45
IFP66. RCEP Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 3.06
Outliers 1 15
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 0.91
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 2, 3, 3
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.092 0
patrickmeehan5 0.060 3
fifty-sixty 0.058 0
clinton 0.058 0
Jean-Pierre 0.055 0
974david 0.054 0
einsteinjs 0.041 0
Clairvoyance 0.041 0
madre 0.040 0
Raisinville 0.039 0
slobodan 0.038 0
hyperionok 0.036 0
christianmaas 0.035 2
TVANKSTA 0.035 15
malcmur 0.034 0
cmeinel 0.034 0
austerity 0.034 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 0
Travist 0.031 3
scholarandcat 0.031 0
Khalid 0.031 0
Anneinak 0.031 0
dada 0.031 0
jkbick 0.028 0
IFP70. NATO 4 Prior Update Diff
Yes 52 51 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 45.00
Std Dev 1 27.52
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 45.00
Std Dev 2 27.52
Inliers 2 0, 17, 20, 20, 25, 25, 35, 35, 35, 40, 41, 45, 45, 50, 53, 60, 65, 66, 75, 85, 90, 90, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.087 0
fifty-sixty 0.062 65
Jean-Pierre 0.059 45
clinton 0.059 35
Wagle 0.054 35
974david 0.050 85
patrickmeehan5 0.045 20
Mroochyslav 0.045 41
slobodan 0.041 100
Clairvoyance 0.040 60
Raisinville 0.039 20
christianmaas 0.037 17
cmeinel 0.037 53
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 50
dkc 0.033 90
lsgold7 0.032 66
Travist 0.032 90
hyperionok 0.032 35
jeremylichtman 0.031 25
jkbick 0.031 75
Manfred 0.031 100
Amir 0.030 25
malcmur 0.029 45
austerity 0.029 40
IFP72. Iran Implementation Day
Prior Update Diff
Yes 79 79 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 80.00
Std Dev 1 32.21
Outliers 1 0, 5
FILTER 2
Median 2 84.00
Std Dev 2 26.64
Inliers 2 33, 40, 41, 45, 66, 75, 80, 80, 80, 88, 90, 90, 90, 95, 95, 95, 97, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 20, 20
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.084 0
clinton 0.059 97
fifty-sixty 0.057 75
Jean-Pierre 0.055 80
patrickmeehan5 0.052 33
Wagle 0.050 20
Mroochyslav 0.049 41
einsteinjs 0.047 100
Clairvoyance 0.041 80
Raisinville 0.040 20
madre 0.039 95
slobodan 0.038 100
donmars 0.036 40
GeneH 0.036 66
cmeinel 0.034 90
austerity 0.034 90
JP 0.033 90
k13rkeg44rd 0.033 100
Travist 0.032 95
scholarandcat 0.031 80
Anneinak 0.031 88
ed3 0.031 5
dkc 0.031 95
hyperionok 0.030 45
IFP73. East China Sea brawl Prior Update Diff
Yes 12 12 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 15.00
Std Dev 1 22.52
Outliers 1 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 15.00
Std Dev 2 15.73
Inliers 2 0, 0, 5, 5, 5, 6, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15, 15, 15, 20, 20, 20, 20, 25, 25
Outliers 2 50, 53, 59
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.087 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 10
Jean-Pierre 0.059 15
clinton 0.058 6
Wagle 0.054 20
974david 0.050 25
patrickmeehan5 0.045 50
Mroochyslav 0.045 59
slobodan 0.041 100
Clairvoyance 0.039 10
Raisinville 0.039 20
christianmaas 0.037 5
cmeinel 0.037 15
k13rkeg44rd 0.035 0
GeneH 0.035 20
dkc 0.032 5
lsgold7 0.032 5
Travist 0.032 10
hyperionok 0.031 20
jeremylichtman 0.031 25
scholarandcat 0.031 10
jkbick 0.030 15
Manfred 0.030 10
Amir 0.030 53
IFP74. PA Israel halt Prior Update Diff
Yes 12 12 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 11.00
Std Dev 1 12.62
Outliers 1 40, 45
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.00
Std Dev 2 10.28
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 5, 8, 8, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 20, 25, 30, 30
Outliers 2 33, 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.099 0
Jean-Pierre 0.067 40
clinton 0.067 8
patrickmeehan5 0.051 33
slobodan 0.047 0
Clairvoyance 0.045 10
Raisinville 0.044 30
christianmaas 0.042 9
cmeinel 0.042 13
k13rkeg44rd 0.040 0
GeneH 0.040 5
dkc 0.037 30
Travist 0.036 10
hyperionok 0.036 35
jeremylichtman 0.035 15
scholarandcat 0.035 25
malcmur 0.033 12
madre 0.031 10
Khalid 0.031 10
mparrault 0.031 16
mariush 0.031 45
RF 0.028 10
dada 0.026 8
deannebridget 0.025 20
IFP75. Montenegro Djukanovic resign Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 9.97
Outliers 1 50
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 0.48
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 1, 1, 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
clinton 0.062 0
fifty-sixty 0.060 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 0
patrickmeehan5 0.055 50
einsteinjs 0.049 0
Clairvoyance 0.044 0
Raisinville 0.042 1
madre 0.041 0
slobodan 0.040 0
christianmaas 0.036 2
cmeinel 0.036 0
austerity 0.036 0
JP 0.035 0
k13rkeg44rd 0.034 0
Travist 0.033 0
scholarandcat 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 0
dkc 0.032 0
Khalid 0.031 0
malcmur 0.031 1
jeremylichtman 0.031 0
jkbick 0.030 0
dada 0.029 0
IFP76. NK nuke test Prior Update Diff
Yes 56 56 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 56.50
Std Dev 1 20.24
Outliers 1 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 55.00
Std Dev 2 18.58
Inliers 2 20, 30, 40, 41, 45, 49, 50, 51, 54, 55, 55, 58, 60, 60, 60, 65, 66, 67, 75, 80, 85
Outliers 2 17, 96
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.067 30
clinton 0.067 58
974david 0.057 50
patrickmeehan5 0.051 51
Mroochyslav 0.051 41
slobodan 0.047 100
Clairvoyance 0.045 60
Raisinville 0.045 40
einsteinjs 0.042 75
christianmaas 0.042 17
cmeinel 0.042 49
GeneH 0.040 60
lsgold7 0.037 96
Travist 0.036 60
hyperionok 0.036 80
jeremylichtman 0.035 85
scholarandcat 0.035 55
Amir 0.034 55
malcmur 0.033 45
austerity 0.033 66
madre 0.032 65
mparrault 0.031 54
mariush 0.031 67
lindsey 0.030 20
IFP77. NATO 4 or 5 Prior Update Diff
Yes, only Article 5 7 7 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 6.50
Std Dev 1 8.49
Outliers 1 41
FILTER 2
Median 2 6.19
Std Dev 2 4.95
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 15, 15, 15
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.073 10
Jean-Pierre 0.071 2
974david 0.060 0
patrickmeehan5 0.054 0
Mroochyslav 0.054 41
slobodan 0.049 0
Clairvoyance 0.047 0
christianmaas 0.044 7
cmeinel 0.044 7
dkc 0.039 10
lsgold7 0.038 6
Travist 0.038 15
jeremylichtman 0.037 6
jkbick 0.036 5
Amir 0.036 15
FuturoMAGE 0.035 2
malcmur 0.035 8
madre 0.033 10
mparrault 0.032 5
Anneinak 0.030 0
RF 0.029 0
boz 0.029 15
dada 0.027 9
redacted 0.027 9
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 5 5 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 23.70
Outliers 1 100, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.15
Std Dev 2 8.23
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 15
Outliers 2 25, 25, 26
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.073 10
Jean-Pierre 0.071 2
974david 0.060 15
patrickmeehan5 0.054 10
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
slobodan 0.049 100
Clairvoyance 0.047 0
christianmaas 0.044 0
cmeinel 0.044 5
dkc 0.039 10
lsgold7 0.038 11
Travist 0.038 25
jeremylichtman 0.037 3
jkbick 0.036 5
Amir 0.036 25
FuturoMAGE 0.035 1
malcmur 0.035 5
madre 0.033 10
mparrault 0.032 5
Anneinak 0.030 0
RF 0.029 75
boz 0.029 26
dada 0.027 0
redacted 0.027 1
Yes, only Article 4 16 16 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 18.00
Std Dev 1 15.35
Outliers 1 50, 49, 50
FILTER 2
Median 2 16.49
Std Dev 2 11.32
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 4, 5, 6, 9, 9, 15, 15, 16, 18, 18, 20, 20, 25, 25, 27, 30, 35
Outliers 2 40
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.073 15
Jean-Pierre 0.071 6
974david 0.060 0
patrickmeehan5 0.054 50
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
slobodan 0.049 0
Clairvoyance 0.047 40
christianmaas 0.044 49
cmeinel 0.044 18
dkc 0.039 20
lsgold7 0.038 4
Travist 0.038 50
jeremylichtman 0.037 16
jkbick 0.036 15
Amir 0.036 5
FuturoMAGE 0.035 20
malcmur 0.035 25
madre 0.033 35
mparrault 0.032 18
Anneinak 0.030 30
RF 0.029 25
boz 0.029 27
dada 0.027 9
redacted 0.027 9
No 72 72 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 63.50
Std Dev 1 25.17
Outliers 1 0, 10, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 72.16
Std Dev 2 15.35
Inliers 2 40, 44, 45, 55, 59, 60, 60, 62, 65, 70, 70, 72, 75, 75, 77, 79, 81, 82, 85, 90
Outliers 2 32
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.073 65
Jean-Pierre 0.071 90
974david 0.060 85
patrickmeehan5 0.054 40
Mroochyslav 0.054 59
slobodan 0.049 0
Clairvoyance 0.047 60
christianmaas 0.044 44
cmeinel 0.044 70
dkc 0.039 60
lsgold7 0.038 79
Travist 0.038 10
jeremylichtman 0.037 75
jkbick 0.036 75
Amir 0.036 55
FuturoMAGE 0.035 77
malcmur 0.035 62
madre 0.033 45
mparrault 0.032 72
Anneinak 0.030 70
RF 0.029 0
boz 0.029 32
dada 0.027 82
redacted 0.027 81
IFP78. Panama Canal Prior Update Diff
Yes 9 8 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 7.00
Std Dev 1 28.48
Outliers 1 65, 100, 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.00
Std Dev 2 18.39
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 5, 9, 10, 15, 20, 25, 25, 41
Outliers 2 58, 60
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.062 20
fifty-sixty 0.061 1
clinton 0.061 9
Jean-Pierre 0.057 25
974david 0.056 65
Mroochyslav 0.054 41
einsteinjs 0.043 1
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.041 0
Raisinville 0.041 0
slobodan 0.039 100
christianmaas 0.037 58
TVANKSTA 0.036 15
GeneH 0.036 0
malcmur 0.035 25
cmeinel 0.035 5
austerity 0.035 60
dkc 0.034 1
lsgold7 0.033 10
Travist 0.033 75
scholarandcat 0.033 5
Khalid 0.032 1
Anneinak 0.032 0
dada 0.032 0
IFP79. Putin Nuke Summit Prior Update Diff
Yes 9 8 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 6.00
Std Dev 1 27.13
Outliers 1 85, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.00
Std Dev 2 16.24
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 9, 13, 15, 15, 20, 23, 30
Outliers 2 55, 59
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.089 0
fifty-sixty 0.063 5
Jean-Pierre 0.060 5
clinton 0.060 9
974david 0.051 85
patrickmeehan5 0.046 20
Mroochyslav 0.046 59
slobodan 0.042 100
Clairvoyance 0.041 0
Raisinville 0.040 30
christianmaas 0.038 5
cmeinel 0.038 13
k13rkeg44rd 0.036 0
GeneH 0.036 5
dkc 0.034 2
lsgold7 0.033 15
Travist 0.033 5
jeremylichtman 0.032 1
scholarandcat 0.032 7
Manfred 0.031 0
Amir 0.031 55
malcmur 0.030 15
austerity 0.029 23
madre 0.028 0
IFP80. Brexit Prior Update Diff
Yes 78 78 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 70.00
Std Dev 1 31.44
Outliers 1 0, 0, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 72.00
Std Dev 2 20.70
Inliers 2 49, 50, 65, 65, 66, 67, 67, 70, 70, 72, 80, 85, 88, 90, 92, 95, 95, 95, 100, 100
Outliers 2 12
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.084 0
clinton 0.058 92
fifty-sixty 0.057 66
Jean-Pierre 0.055 70
patrickmeehan5 0.051 90
974david 0.051 50
Mroochyslav 0.049 67
einsteinjs 0.046 80
Clairvoyance 0.041 72
Raisinville 0.039 0
madre 0.039 95
slobodan 0.038 100
donmars 0.036 12
GeneH 0.036 65
christianmaas 0.034 49
cmeinel 0.034 95
austerity 0.034 70
JP 0.033 85
k13rkeg44rd 0.032 100
Travist 0.031 0
scholarandcat 0.031 67
Anneinak 0.031 88
dkc 0.030 95
Khalid 0.029 65
IFP81. GOP nominee Prior Update Diff
Jeb Bush 12 12 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 9.00
Std Dev 1 27.15
Outliers 1 99, 75, 70
FILTER 2
Median 2 13.11
Std Dev 2 14.62
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 5, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 20, 27, 32
Outliers 2 46, 50
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 10
Raisinville 0.059 46
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
dada 0.053 5
madre 0.053 0
Rebel ran riot 0.052 99
einsteinjs 0.050 5
Anneinak 0.046 10
malcmur 0.045 32
TVANKSTA 0.043 75
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 0
Khalid 0.035 20
austerity 0.034 0
wlmsears 0.034 5
petth 0.034 50
JP 0.034 8
admiralporky 0.033 70
nls 0.032 27
Doina 0.032 0
yaifuz26 0.031 10
GJDrew 0.031 9
Jean-Pierre 0.030 0
boz 0.030 9
Donald Trump 10 13 3
FILTER 1
Median 1 6.00
Std Dev 1 24.82
Outliers 1 59, 100, 67
FILTER 2
Median 2 8.20
Std Dev 2 10.67
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 10, 15, 16, 20, 24, 25, 26
Outliers 2 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 0
Raisinville 0.059 2
Mroochyslav 0.054 59
dada 0.053 0
madre 0.053 20
Rebel ran riot 0.052 0
einsteinjs 0.050 0
Anneinak 0.046 26
malcmur 0.045 4
TVANKSTA 0.043 25
slobodan 0.038 100
cdob63 0.036 0
Khalid 0.035 5
austerity 0.034 5
wlmsears 0.034 15
petth 0.034 0
JP 0.034 7
admiralporky 0.033 0
nls 0.032 1
Doina 0.032 10
yaifuz26 0.031 35
GJDrew 0.031 24
Jean-Pierre 0.030 67
boz 0.030 16
Marco Rubio 42 41 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 28.00
Std Dev 1 23.96
Outliers 1 80
FILTER 2
Median 2 44.26
Std Dev 2 22.09
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 5, 10, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 29, 30, 30, 36, 43, 43, 50, 50, 60, 70
Outliers 2 75
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 80
Raisinville 0.059 10
Mroochyslav 0.054 29
dada 0.053 75
madre 0.053 5
Rebel ran riot 0.052 0
einsteinjs 0.050 70
Anneinak 0.046 24
malcmur 0.045 36
TVANKSTA 0.043 0
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 43
Khalid 0.035 50
austerity 0.034 25
wlmsears 0.034 60
petth 0.034 50
JP 0.034 43
admiralporky 0.033 0
nls 0.032 22
Doina 0.032 30
yaifuz26 0.031 20
GJDrew 0.031 30
Jean-Pierre 0.030 3
boz 0.030 27
Carly Fiorina 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 3.99
Outliers 1 20
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 0.28
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 1, 1
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 0
Raisinville 0.059 0
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
dada 0.053 0
madre 0.053 0
Rebel ran riot 0.052 0
einsteinjs 0.050 0
Anneinak 0.046 0
malcmur 0.045 1
TVANKSTA 0.043 0
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 0
Khalid 0.035 0
austerity 0.034 0
wlmsears 0.034 0
petth 0.034 0
JP 0.034 0
admiralporky 0.033 20
nls 0.032 0
Doina 0.032 0
yaifuz26 0.031 0
GJDrew 0.031 0
Jean-Pierre 0.030 0
boz 0.030 1
Ben Carson 1 1 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 6.36
Outliers 1 30
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 2.89
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5
Outliers 2 9, 10
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 10
Raisinville 0.059 0
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
dada 0.053 0
madre 0.053 0
Rebel ran riot 0.052 0
einsteinjs 0.050 0
Anneinak 0.046 9
malcmur 0.045 3
TVANKSTA 0.043 0
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 0
Khalid 0.035 0
austerity 0.034 0
wlmsears 0.034 5
petth 0.034 0
JP 0.034 0
admiralporky 0.033 5
nls 0.032 1
Doina 0.032 30
yaifuz26 0.031 0
GJDrew 0.031 0
Jean-Pierre 0.030 0
boz 0.030 1
None of the above 4 3 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.50
Std Dev 1 8.10
Outliers 1 37, 17
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 3.55
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5
Outliers 2 10, 13
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 0
Raisinville 0.059 37
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
dada 0.053 0
madre 0.053 0
Rebel ran riot 0.052 1
einsteinjs 0.050 4
Anneinak 0.046 3
malcmur 0.045 5
TVANKSTA 0.043 0
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 13
Khalid 0.035 0
austerity 0.034 10
wlmsears 0.034 0
petth 0.034 0
JP 0.034 0
admiralporky 0.033 5
nls 0.032 5
Doina 0.032 0
yaifuz26 0.031 5
GJDrew 0.031 5
Jean-Pierre 0.030 0
boz 0.030 17
Ted Cruz 31 30 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 23.00
Std Dev 1 19.70
Outliers 1 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 34.43
Std Dev 2 16.86
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 12, 15, 19, 20, 21, 25, 28, 29, 30, 30, 30, 32, 42, 44, 44
Outliers 2 60
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.081 0
Raisinville 0.059 5
Mroochyslav 0.054 12
dada 0.053 20
madre 0.053 75
Rebel ran riot 0.052 0
einsteinjs 0.050 21
Anneinak 0.046 28
malcmur 0.045 19
TVANKSTA 0.043 0
slobodan 0.038 0
cdob63 0.036 44
Khalid 0.035 25
austerity 0.034 60
wlmsears 0.034 15
petth 0.034 0
JP 0.034 42
admiralporky 0.033 0
nls 0.032 44
Doina 0.032 30
yaifuz26 0.031 30
GJDrew 0.031 32
Jean-Pierre 0.030 30
boz 0.030 29
IFP84. Turkey controls Prior Update Diff
Yes 43 42 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 45.00
Std Dev 1 25.55
Outliers 1 100, 99
FILTER 2
Median 2 43.00
Std Dev 2 20.00
Inliers 2 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 30, 30, 38, 41, 45, 45, 49, 50, 50, 50, 55, 60, 65, 65, 70
Outliers 2 0, 0
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.078 10
Jean-Pierre 0.072 45
Clairvoyance 0.053 30
madre 0.052 65
slobodan 0.049 100
christianmaas 0.046 38
GeneH 0.045 25
malcmur 0.044 41
cmeinel 0.044 49
dkc 0.043 50
lsgold7 0.041 70
dada 0.040 45
jeremylichtman 0.038 99
jkbick 0.037 65
JP 0.037 20
Amir 0.036 55
petth 0.036 50
mparrault 0.034 30
RF 0.032 60
CT Runner 0.030 30
deannebridget 0.029 0
boz 0.029 50
yaifuz26 0.028 15
ravel 0.027 0
IFP85. Afghani MOD
Prior Update Diff
Yes 45 46 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 55.00
Std Dev 1 28.27
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 55.00
Std Dev 2 28.27
Inliers 2 0, 0, 1, 1, 15, 15, 21, 35, 40, 40, 40, 55, 55, 55, 65, 65, 66, 69, 69, 69, 70, 75, 75, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.071 55
patrickmeehan5 0.066 69
einsteinjs 0.060 1
Clairvoyance 0.053 15
madre 0.050 55
slobodan 0.049 100
GeneH 0.046 15
christianmaas 0.044 69
cmeinel 0.044 1
austerity 0.043 40
k13rkeg44rd 0.042 0
Travist 0.041 0
Khalid 0.038 65
malcmur 0.038 21
lsgold7 0.038 35
dada 0.036 69
Amir 0.036 75
mparrault 0.034 55
CT Runner 0.030 70
Dima K 0.030 75
yaifuz26 0.029 65
RF 0.029 40
nls 0.028 40
cdob63 0.027 66
IFP86. ASEAN China Prior Update Diff
Yes 84 83 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 80.00
Std Dev 1 21.28
Outliers 1 2
FILTER 2
Median 2 80.00
Std Dev 2 14.52
Inliers 2 55, 55, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 80, 80, 80, 82, 85, 90, 90, 90, 92, 95, 99, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 45
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.095 92
fifty-sixty 0.067 75
Jean-Pierre 0.064 90
clinton 0.064 90
patrickmeehan5 0.049 75
slobodan 0.045 100
Clairvoyance 0.043 99
Raisinville 0.043 55
christianmaas 0.040 75
cmeinel 0.040 82
k13rkeg44rd 0.038 100
dkc 0.036 100
lsgold7 0.035 2
Travist 0.035 55
scholarandcat 0.034 90
jkbick 0.033 75
Amir 0.033 75
malcmur 0.032 45
austerity 0.031 75
madre 0.030 95
Khalid 0.030 85
mparrault 0.029 80
lindsey 0.028 80
RF 0.027 80
IFP87. IMF Prior Update Diff
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term 80 80 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 76.50
Std Dev 1 28.16
Outliers 1 4, 10
FILTER 2
Median 2 84.04
Std Dev 2 22.01
Inliers 2 40, 40, 50, 50, 55, 59, 65, 70, 75, 78, 80, 87, 90, 90, 92, 95, 98, 98, 98, 100, 100
Outliers 2 30
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.068 70
Jean-Pierre 0.065 40
clinton 0.065 4
patrickmeehan5 0.050 10
Mroochyslav 0.050 59
slobodan 0.046 100
Clairvoyance 0.044 78
Raisinville 0.043 75
einsteinjs 0.041 98
christianmaas 0.041 87
cmeinel 0.041 40
k13rkeg44rd 0.039 100
GeneH 0.039 30
dkc 0.036 98
lsgold7 0.036 80
Travist 0.035 95
jeremylichtman 0.035 98
jkbick 0.034 55
Amir 0.033 65
FuturoMAGE 0.033 90
malcmur 0.032 92
austerity 0.032 50
madre 0.031 90
Khalid 0.030 50
Someone from outside Europe 15 15 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 11.00
Std Dev 1 22.62
Outliers 1 80
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.64
Std Dev 2 19.50
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 12, 13, 20, 25, 40, 41, 45, 48
Outliers 2 50, 50, 55
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.068 5
Jean-Pierre 0.065 50
clinton 0.065 48
patrickmeehan5 0.050 80
Mroochyslav 0.050 41
slobodan 0.046 0
Clairvoyance 0.044 12
Raisinville 0.043 20
einsteinjs 0.041 1
christianmaas 0.041 13
cmeinel 0.041 50
k13rkeg44rd 0.039 0
GeneH 0.039 55
dkc 0.036 2
lsgold7 0.036 10
Travist 0.035 0
jeremylichtman 0.035 1
jkbick 0.034 45
Amir 0.033 10
FuturoMAGE 0.033 5
malcmur 0.032 5
austerity 0.032 25
madre 0.031 5
Khalid 0.030 40
Someone else from Europe 5 5 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 11.26
Outliers 1 48
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.32
Std Dev 2 8.02
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15
Outliers 2 25, 25, 25
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.068 25
Jean-Pierre 0.065 10
clinton 0.065 48
patrickmeehan5 0.050 10
Mroochyslav 0.050 0
slobodan 0.046 0
Clairvoyance 0.044 10
Raisinville 0.043 5
einsteinjs 0.041 1
christianmaas 0.041 0
cmeinel 0.041 10
k13rkeg44rd 0.039 0
GeneH 0.039 15
dkc 0.036 0
lsgold7 0.036 10
Travist 0.035 5
jeremylichtman 0.035 1
jkbick 0.034 0
Amir 0.033 25
FuturoMAGE 0.033 5
malcmur 0.032 3
austerity 0.032 25
madre 0.031 5
Khalid 0.030 10
IFP88. Superbowl Prior Update Diff
A team from the American Football Conference 41 41 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 40.50
Std Dev 1 16.24
Outliers 1 75
FILTER 2
Median 2 40.00
Std Dev 2 15.08
Inliers 2 16, 20, 21, 25, 25, 25, 25, 35, 35, 37, 40, 40, 41, 49, 50, 50, 50, 55, 55, 60, 62, 65, 65
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.095 40
Delorean 0.088 25
einsteinjs 0.075 20
dada 0.052 21
Raisinville 0.050 50
cdob63 0.048 49
petth 0.046 25
malcmur 0.046 25
Ossipon 0.041 55
austerity 0.039 37
GJDrew 0.038 40
GeneH 0.036 55
jimglynn 0.034 25
Clairvoyance 0.032 62
clinton 0.031 50
CT Runner 0.030 65
darius.hinton 0.028 35
tomh 0.028 65
Tom L 0.028 50
Spandrelbarca 0.027 35
000 0.027 41
yaifuz26 0.027 60
ravel 0.027 16
15 0.027 75
A team from the National Football Conference 59 59 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 59.50
Std Dev 1 16.24
Outliers 1 25
FILTER 2
Median 2 60.00
Std Dev 2 15.08
Inliers 2 35, 35, 38, 40, 45, 45, 50, 50, 50, 51, 59, 60, 60, 63, 65, 65, 75, 75, 75, 75, 79, 80, 84
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.095 60
Delorean 0.088 75
einsteinjs 0.075 80
dada 0.052 79
Raisinville 0.050 50
cdob63 0.048 51
petth 0.046 75
malcmur 0.046 75
Ossipon 0.041 45
austerity 0.039 63
GJDrew 0.038 60
GeneH 0.036 45
jimglynn 0.034 75
Clairvoyance 0.032 38
clinton 0.031 50
CT Runner 0.030 35
darius.hinton 0.028 65
tomh 0.028 35
Tom L 0.028 50
Spandrelbarca 0.027 65
000 0.027 59
yaifuz26 0.027 40
ravel 0.027 84
15 0.027 25
IFP89. Iran Competitiveness Prior Update Diff
Above 75 10 11 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.00
Std Dev 1 16.17
Outliers 1 69, 45
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.58
Std Dev 2 9.77
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 15, 16, 19, 25, 25, 29
Outliers 2 34
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.074 69
fifty-sixty 0.072 5
Mroochyslav 0.064 29
einsteinjs 0.051 0
Clairvoyance 0.051 0
madre 0.049 15
christianmaas 0.044 10
GeneH 0.042 10
malcmur 0.042 10
cmeinel 0.042 0
dkc 0.041 5
scholarandcat 0.039 10
Khalid 0.038 5
dada 0.038 19
donmars 0.038 2
jeremylichtman 0.036 45
JP 0.035 25
Amir 0.034 25
petth 0.034 5
mparrault 0.032 16
deannebridget 0.027 0
boz 0.027 34
yaifuz26 0.026 5
ravel 0.025 11
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 68 69 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 63.50
Std Dev 1 19.52
Outliers 1 20, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 71.43
Std Dev 2 13.18
Inliers 2 42, 42, 50, 50, 51, 55, 56, 60, 62, 65, 70, 70, 70, 71, 71, 72, 75, 75, 80, 80, 81
Outliers 2 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.074 20
fifty-sixty 0.072 70
Mroochyslav 0.064 71
einsteinjs 0.051 51
Clairvoyance 0.051 50
madre 0.049 62
christianmaas 0.044 75
GeneH 0.042 75
malcmur 0.042 60
cmeinel 0.042 0
dkc 0.041 70
scholarandcat 0.039 72
Khalid 0.038 55
dada 0.038 71
donmars 0.038 56
jeremylichtman 0.036 50
JP 0.035 70
Amir 0.034 35
petth 0.034 80
mparrault 0.032 42
deannebridget 0.027 80
boz 0.027 42
yaifuz26 0.026 65
ravel 0.025 81
In the top 50 2 2 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 1.50
Std Dev 1 13.22
Outliers 1 65
FILTER 2
Median 2 1.06
Std Dev 2 4.98
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5
Outliers 2 15, 15, 16
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.074 1
fifty-sixty 0.072 5
Mroochyslav 0.064 0
einsteinjs 0.051 5
Clairvoyance 0.051 0
madre 0.049 2
christianmaas 0.044 0
GeneH 0.042 0
malcmur 0.042 5
cmeinel 0.042 65
dkc 0.041 0
scholarandcat 0.039 1
Khalid 0.038 5
dada 0.038 0
donmars 0.038 3
jeremylichtman 0.036 0
JP 0.035 0
Amir 0.034 15
petth 0.034 0
mparrault 0.032 16
deannebridget 0.027 5
boz 0.027 3
yaifuz26 0.026 15
ravel 0.025 0
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 20 19 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 18.50
Std Dev 1 12.45
Outliers 1 44, 50
FILTER 2
Median 2 16.93
Std Dev 2 9.97
Inliers 2 0, 5, 5, 8, 10, 10, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 17, 20, 21, 21, 25, 25, 25, 26, 35, 35
Outliers 2 39
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.074 10
fifty-sixty 0.072 20
Mroochyslav 0.064 0
einsteinjs 0.051 44
Clairvoyance 0.051 50
madre 0.049 21
christianmaas 0.044 15
GeneH 0.042 15
malcmur 0.042 25
cmeinel 0.042 35
dkc 0.041 25
scholarandcat 0.039 17
Khalid 0.038 35
dada 0.038 10
donmars 0.038 39
jeremylichtman 0.036 5
JP 0.035 5
Amir 0.034 25
petth 0.034 15
mparrault 0.032 26
deannebridget 0.027 15
boz 0.027 21
yaifuz26 0.026 15
ravel 0.025 8
IFP90. Akkuyu Suspension Prior Update Diff
Yes 54 54 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 50.00
Std Dev 1 29.86
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 50.00
Std Dev 2 29.86
Inliers 2 5, 5, 20, 21, 25, 26, 28, 40, 40, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 54, 55, 70, 87, 90, 90, 90, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.100 100
Jean-Pierre 0.067 20
clinton 0.067 21
patrickmeehan5 0.052 90
slobodan 0.047 100
Clairvoyance 0.045 50
christianmaas 0.042 87
cmeinel 0.042 5
k13rkeg44rd 0.040 100
GeneH 0.040 50
dkc 0.037 40
lsgold7 0.037 50
Travist 0.037 90
jeremylichtman 0.036 5
scholarandcat 0.036 28
jkbick 0.035 70
Amir 0.034 55
austerity 0.033 40
madre 0.032 50
mparrault 0.031 54
lindsey 0.030 90
Anneinak 0.028 50
dada 0.026 25
redacted 0.025 26
IFP93. BRIC Growth Prior Update Diff
Four 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 2.00
Outliers 1 10
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 0.28
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 1, 1
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 0
clinton 0.061 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 1
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
einsteinjs 0.043 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
christianmaas 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 0
cmeinel 0.035 0
austerity 0.035 0
dkc 0.035 0
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 0
Khalid 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 0
jeremylichtman 0.031 0
JP 0.029 0
Amir 0.029 10
mparrault 0.027 1
Dima K 0.027 0
RF 0.026 0
None 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 12.19
Outliers 1 61
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.02
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Outliers 2 5
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 0
clinton 0.061 0
Jean-Pierre 0.058 0
Mroochyslav 0.054 61
einsteinjs 0.043 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
christianmaas 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 0
cmeinel 0.035 0
austerity 0.035 0
dkc 0.035 0
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 0
Khalid 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 0
jeremylichtman 0.031 0
JP 0.029 0
Amir 0.029 5
mparrault 0.027 0
Dima K 0.027 0
RF 0.026 0
Two 94 96 2
FILTER 1
Median 1 94.50
Std Dev 1 33.48
Outliers 1 0, 8, 0
FILTER 2
Median 2 99.48
Std Dev 2 19.26
Inliers 2 80, 80, 80, 85, 90, 90, 94, 95, 95, 95, 98, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 30, 35
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 100
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 95
clinton 0.061 98
Jean-Pierre 0.058 80
Mroochyslav 0.054 8
einsteinjs 0.043 100
Clairvoyance 0.043 90
madre 0.042 100
christianmaas 0.037 90
GeneH 0.036 100
cmeinel 0.035 80
austerity 0.035 100
dkc 0.035 95
lsgold7 0.033 100
Travist 0.033 80
Khalid 0.033 95
Anneinak 0.033 0
jeremylichtman 0.031 35
JP 0.029 100
Amir 0.029 30
mparrault 0.027 94
Dima K 0.027 99
RF 0.026 85
Three 4 2 -2
FILTER 1
Median 1 2.50
Std Dev 1 13.75
Outliers 1 60, 35
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.52
Std Dev 2 6.14
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10, 10
Outliers 2 15, 18, 20
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
patrickmeehan5 0.063 0
fifty-sixty 0.061 5
clinton 0.061 1
Jean-Pierre 0.058 18
Mroochyslav 0.054 0
einsteinjs 0.043 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 10
madre 0.042 0
christianmaas 0.037 10
GeneH 0.036 0
cmeinel 0.035 20
austerity 0.035 0
dkc 0.035 5
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 5
Khalid 0.033 5
Anneinak 0.033 0
jeremylichtman 0.031 60
JP 0.029 0
Amir 0.029 35
mparrault 0.027 4
Dima K 0.027 0
RF 0.026 15
One 2 1 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 27.74
Outliers 1 100, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 7.86
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 15
Outliers 2 20, 31
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
patrickmeehan5 0.063 100
fifty-sixty 0.061 0
clinton 0.061 1
Jean-Pierre 0.058 1
Mroochyslav 0.054 31
einsteinjs 0.043 0
Clairvoyance 0.043 0
madre 0.042 0
christianmaas 0.037 0
GeneH 0.036 0
cmeinel 0.035 0
austerity 0.035 0
dkc 0.035 0
lsgold7 0.033 0
Travist 0.033 15
Khalid 0.033 0
Anneinak 0.033 100
jeremylichtman 0.031 5
JP 0.029 0
Amir 0.029 20
mparrault 0.027 1
Dima K 0.027 1
RF 0.026 0
IFP94. TIME off stand Prior Update Diff
Yes 15 15 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 15.00
Std Dev 1 18.69
Outliers 1 65, 60, 60
FILTER 2
Median 2 15.00
Std Dev 2 11.24
Inliers 2 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 8, 10, 10, 10, 11, 15, 15, 15, 17, 19, 23, 28, 30, 30, 35, 35
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 0.096 65
Delorean 0.089 1
einsteinjs 0.075 1
JP 0.059 10
wlmsears 0.056 30
BlackJackBones 0.051 17
cdob63 0.048 23
petth 0.047 60
Anneinak 0.045 11
Ossipon 0.041 35
GJDrew 0.039 30
BestGuess 0.034 0
Clairvoyance 0.033 15
clinton 0.031 60
sonac36 0.029 10
lindsey91 0.028 28
Spandrelbarca 0.028 2
000 0.027 15
yaifuz26 0.027 15
ravel 0.027 19
slobodan 0.027 0
klin 0.023 8
JMODE 0.022 10
dowser 0.018 35
IFP95. NLD President Myanmar Prior Update Diff
Yes 95 95 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 95.00
Std Dev 1 8.77
Outliers 1 65, 77
FILTER 2
Median 2 95.00
Std Dev 2 6.20
Inliers 2 83, 85, 90, 90, 92, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 96, 98, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100
Outliers 2 80, 80
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.095 100
clinton 0.066 98
Jean-Pierre 0.062 95
patrickmeehan5 0.058 65
Mroochyslav 0.055 83
Clairvoyance 0.046 99
slobodan 0.043 100
GeneH 0.040 95
christianmaas 0.038 85
cmeinel 0.038 92
austerity 0.038 100
k13rkeg44rd 0.037 100
Travist 0.036 80
scholarandcat 0.035 96
Anneinak 0.035 77
dkc 0.034 95
Khalid 0.033 95
lsgold7 0.033 95
jkbick 0.032 90
dada 0.031 95
Amir 0.031 95
mparrault 0.030 80
lindsey 0.027 90
yaifuz26 0.026 99
IFP96. Foreign Legion to Syria Prior Update Diff
Yes 28 28 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 31.00
Std Dev 1 27.43
Outliers 1 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 25.00
Std Dev 2 24.37
Inliers 2 0, 1, 1, 5, 10, 10, 11, 12, 18, 20, 22, 25, 37, 40, 40, 50, 50, 55, 60, 60, 65
Outliers 2 75, 75
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.096 0
fifty-sixty 0.068 22
Jean-Pierre 0.065 5
clinton 0.065 1
patrickmeehan5 0.050 75
Mroochyslav 0.049 37
slobodan 0.045 100
Clairvoyance 0.044 60
Raisinville 0.043 55
christianmaas 0.041 40
GeneH 0.039 18
dkc 0.036 60
Travist 0.035 20
jeremylichtman 0.034 1
scholarandcat 0.034 12
jkbick 0.034 75
Amir 0.033 11
madre 0.031 10
mparrault 0.030 40
Anneinak 0.027 50
boz 0.027 50
dada 0.025 25
redacted 0.025 65
fatalis 0.024 10
IFP97. Cyber Sanctions
Prior Update Diff
Yes 25 34 9
FILTER 1
Median 1 35.00
Std Dev 1 30.92
Outliers 1 100, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 32.50
Std Dev 2 25.98
Inliers 2 0, 1, 5, 5, 5, 8, 15, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 35, 36, 40, 41, 58, 61, 73, 75, 75, 80
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.108 0
clinton 0.073 58
patrickmeehan5 0.056 80
slobodan 0.051 100
Clairvoyance 0.049 25
einsteinjs 0.046 73
christianmaas 0.046 8
cmeinel 0.046 41
GeneH 0.043 5
dkc 0.040 75
Travist 0.039 5
jeremylichtman 0.038 5
scholarandcat 0.038 36
jkbick 0.038 15
Amir 0.037 35
madre 0.034 1
mparrault 0.033 40
boz 0.030 61
redacted 0.027 75
deannebridget 0.027 15
Antacular 0.026 30
Lucky 0.026 100
yaifuz26 0.025 20
donmars 0.025 35
IFP98. Montenegro NATO
Prior Update Diff
Yes 37 36 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 36.50
Std Dev 1 23.34
Outliers 1 85, 100
FILTER 2
Median 2 35.50
Std Dev 2 17.86
Inliers 2 2, 2, 8, 20, 24, 25, 30, 30, 33, 33, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 40, 45, 55, 59, 60, 60, 70
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty 0.071 70
Jean-Pierre 0.068 40
clinton 0.068 8
patrickmeehan5 0.052 85
Mroochyslav 0.052 59
slobodan 0.047 100
Clairvoyance 0.045 30
einsteinjs 0.043 2
christianmaas 0.043 35
cmeinel 0.042 36
GeneH 0.040 2
dkc 0.038 45
Travist 0.037 40
jeremylichtman 0.036 37
scholarandcat 0.036 38
jkbick 0.035 60
Amir 0.035 25
austerity 0.033 30
KSpain 0.033 55
madre 0.032 20
mparrault 0.031 33
lindsey 0.030 60
Anneinak 0.028 33
boz 0.028 24
IFP99. Iran Majles Conservative Prior Update Diff
Yes 81 82 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 85.00
Std Dev 1 19.33
Outliers 1 41, 45, 30
FILTER 2
Median 2 85.00
Std Dev 2 14.00
Inliers 2 60, 60, 65, 65, 65, 70, 80, 85, 85, 85, 85, 88, 88, 90, 93, 94, 95, 95, 100, 100
Outliers 2 55
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Falconer 0.095 100
clinton 0.067 85
Jean-Pierre 0.062 90
patrickmeehan5 0.059 88
Mroochyslav 0.056 41
einsteinjs 0.053 85
madre 0.044 93
slobodan 0.043 100
donmars 0.041 65
GeneH 0.041 80
christianmaas 0.039 88
Travist 0.036 95
KSpain 0.036 95
scholarandcat 0.036 85
Khalid 0.034 65
malcmur 0.034 70
lsgold7 0.033 60
dada 0.032 85
Amir 0.031 55
mparrault 0.030 65
yaifuz26 0.026 45
RF 0.026 30
nls 0.025 60
cdob63 0.024 94
IFP100. India ICC Cricket
Prior Update Diff
Yes 19 19 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 19.50
Std Dev 1 14.09
Outliers 1 50, 71
FILTER 2
Median 2 19.00
Std Dev 2 8.92
Inliers 2 10, 12, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 19, 20, 20, 21, 25, 25, 25, 25, 30
Outliers 2 45, 46
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.097 12
patrickmeehan5 0.089 50
Clairvoyance 0.065 20
christianmaas 0.061 19
Amir 0.050 19
dada 0.046 15
Khalid 0.046 25
mparrault 0.045 21
lindsey 0.043 15
Dima K 0.041 10
RF 0.040 25
boz 0.040 46
yaifuz26 0.040 15
ravel 0.037 19
redacted 0.037 18
deannebridget 0.036 15
JP 0.036 17
DariusX 0.027 25
Doina 0.023 25
Censusguyz 0.022 45
yolfer 0.022 71
z0k 0.020 20
levett 0.019 30
alistaircookie 0.018 16
IFP101. Retake Mosul Prior Update Diff
Yes 35 35 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 35.00
Std Dev 1 18.29
Outliers 1 78
FILTER 2
Median 2 35.00
Std Dev 2 16.49
Inliers 2 10, 10, 12, 15, 20, 23, 25, 25, 30, 30, 33, 35, 35, 35, 35, 45, 45, 45, 45, 60, 60, 65, 65
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.098 12
Clairvoyance 0.066 30
cmeinel 0.061 15
GeneH 0.058 30
lsgold7 0.053 60
scholarandcat 0.052 20
Amir 0.050 33
austerity 0.048 60
madre 0.046 35
Khalid 0.045 65
Dima K 0.042 23
boz 0.040 78
redacted 0.037 65
fatalis 0.036 25
yaifuz26 0.034 45
donmars 0.033 25
JP 0.032 45
RCScheffers 0.031 35
gstaneff 0.027 10
Rene 0.026 35
GJDrew 0.022 45
shador13 0.021 35
UnderwaterPutin 0.021 10
z0k 0.020 45
IFP102. Uganda President Prior Update Diff
Yoweri Museveni 91 92 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 90.50
Std Dev 1 15.05
Outliers 1 45, 55
FILTER 2
Median 2 92.89
Std Dev 2 11.05
Inliers 2 70, 70, 78, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 92, 95, 95, 96, 96, 98, 98, 99, 99, 100, 100
Outliers 2 66, 67
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.092 92
fifty-sixty 0.090 85
Jean-Pierre 0.086 66
einsteinjs 0.073 99
Clairvoyance 0.065 100
madre 0.061 78
GeneH 0.056 98
KSpain 0.049 95
dkc 0.048 98
Khalid 0.046 90
Dima K 0.036 86
yaifuz26 0.036 45
boz 0.035 55
cdob63 0.033 96
redacted 0.032 96
petth 0.030 95
RCScheffers 0.027 70
Rene 0.023 70
Spandrelbarca 0.020 99
z0k 0.018 84
Scooozai 0.013 100
AndrewSabisky 0.012 89
000 0.010 91
September 0.009 67
Kizza Besigye 3 2 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 3.00
Std Dev 1 5.00
Outliers 1 15, 15, 15
FILTER 2
Median 2 2.03
Std Dev 2 3.25
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5
Outliers 2 11, 12
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.092 4
fifty-sixty 0.090 3
Jean-Pierre 0.086 3
einsteinjs 0.073 1
Clairvoyance 0.065 0
madre 0.061 5
GeneH 0.056 1
KSpain 0.049 0
dkc 0.048 1
Khalid 0.046 5
Dima K 0.036 4
yaifuz26 0.036 15
boz 0.035 12
cdob63 0.033 1
redacted 0.032 2
petth 0.030 0
RCScheffers 0.027 15
Rene 0.023 15
Spandrelbarca 0.020 0
z0k 0.018 2
Scooozai 0.013 0
AndrewSabisky 0.012 5
000 0.010 3
September 0.009 11
None of the above 0 0 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 0.00
Std Dev 1 5.46
Outliers 1 25, 11
FILTER 2
Median 2 0.00
Std Dev 2 1.97
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2
Outliers 2 5, 5, 7
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.092 0
fifty-sixty 0.090 0
Jean-Pierre 0.086 1
einsteinjs 0.073 0
Clairvoyance 0.065 0
madre 0.061 2
GeneH 0.056 0
KSpain 0.049 0
dkc 0.048 0
Khalid 0.046 0
Dima K 0.036 0
yaifuz26 0.036 25
boz 0.035 7
cdob63 0.033 0
redacted 0.032 0
petth 0.030 0
RCScheffers 0.027 5
Rene 0.023 5
Spandrelbarca 0.020 0
z0k 0.018 1
Scooozai 0.013 0
AndrewSabisky 0.012 0
000 0.010 0
September 0.009 11
Amama Mbabazi 6 5 -1
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.50
Std Dev 1 7.69
Outliers 1 30, 26
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.08
Std Dev 2 4.93
Inliers 2 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 10, 10, 10, 11, 12, 13
Outliers 2 15, 15
Forecaster Weight Forecast
clinton 0.092 4
fifty-sixty 0.090 12
Jean-Pierre 0.086 30
einsteinjs 0.073 0
Clairvoyance 0.065 0
madre 0.061 15
GeneH 0.056 1
KSpain 0.049 5
dkc 0.048 1
Khalid 0.046 5
Dima K 0.036 10
yaifuz26 0.036 15
boz 0.035 26
cdob63 0.033 3
redacted 0.032 2
petth 0.030 5
RCScheffers 0.027 10
Rene 0.023 10
Spandrelbarca 0.020 1
z0k 0.018 13
Scooozai 0.013 0
AndrewSabisky 0.012 6
000 0.010 6
September 0.009 11
IFP103. 6-party NK Nuke Talks Resume Prior Update Diff
Yes 7 9 2
FILTER 1
Median 1 9.50
Std Dev 1 12.63
Outliers 1 44, 38
FILTER 2
Median 2 8.00
Std Dev 2 10.05
Inliers 2 0, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 9, 10, 10, 12, 15, 15, 25, 25
Outliers 2 30, 30, 32
Forecaster Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre 0.091 5
clinton 0.091 5
Clairvoyance 0.061 0
einsteinjs 0.057 1
GeneH 0.054 2
lsgold7 0.050 9
scholarandcat 0.048 7
austerity 0.044 30
KSpain 0.044 10
madre 0.043 5
Dima K 0.039 15
Anneinak 0.038 44
boz 0.038 32
dada 0.035 38
redacted 0.034 5
yaifuz26 0.031 15
donmars 0.031 12
JP 0.030 5
RCScheffers 0.029 25
gstaneff 0.026 10
Rene 0.025 25
Mustang451 0.021 1
REGallahue 0.021 5
shador13 0.020 30
IFP104. Best toy Prior Update Diff
FlipsiesTM Sandy’s House & Ocean Cruiser 7 7 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 5.00
Std Dev 1 2.82
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.32
Std Dev 2 2.82
Inliers 2 2, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 10, 10
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 10
cdob63 0.163 4
Ossipon 0.140 5
GJDrew 0.131 7
praedico 0.122 5
000 0.093 7
yaifuz26 0.093 10
Dima K 0.030 2
fifty-sixty 0.025 2
Star Wars Science – Jedi Force Levitator 10 10 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.00
Std Dev 1 12.69
Outliers 1 45
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.64
Std Dev 2 7.26
Inliers 2 4, 5, 8, 10, 10, 10, 12
Outliers 2 29
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 8
cdob63 0.163 4
Ossipon 0.140 45
GJDrew 0.131 12
praedico 0.122 5
000 0.093 10
yaifuz26 0.093 10
Dima K 0.030 29
fifty-sixty 0.025 10
MiPosaur 7 7 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 6.00
Std Dev 1 5.48
Outliers 1 20
FILTER 2
Median 2 5.85
Std Dev 2 3.46
Inliers 2 1, 2, 5, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 6
cdob63 0.163 5
Ossipon 0.140 5
GJDrew 0.131 12
praedico 0.122 10
000 0.093 7
yaifuz26 0.093 20
Dima K 0.030 1
fifty-sixty 0.025 2
i-loom 21 21 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 20.00
Std Dev 1 10.27
Outliers 1 42
FILTER 2
Median 2 21.28
Std Dev 2 7.53
Inliers 2 6, 10, 17, 20, 20, 20, 21, 33
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 20
cdob63 0.163 42
Ossipon 0.140 10
GJDrew 0.131 20
praedico 0.122 17
000 0.093 21
yaifuz26 0.093 20
Dima K 0.030 6
fifty-sixty 0.025 33
Makey Makey Classic 26 27 1
FILTER 1
Median 1 25.00
Std Dev 1 9.98
Outliers 1 3
FILTER 2
Median 2 27.13
Std Dev 2 8.05
Inliers 2 10, 13, 20, 25, 26, 30, 32, 33
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 32
cdob63 0.163 3
Ossipon 0.140 20
GJDrew 0.131 25
praedico 0.122 13
000 0.093 26
yaifuz26 0.093 10
Dima K 0.030 30
fifty-sixty 0.025 33
Meccanoid G15 11 11 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 10.00
Std Dev 1 8.08
Outliers 1 30
FILTER 2
Median 2 10.64
Std Dev 2 6.04
Inliers 2 5, 6, 10, 10, 10, 11, 17
Outliers 2 25
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 6
cdob63 0.163 5
Ossipon 0.140 10
GJDrew 0.131 17
praedico 0.122 25
000 0.093 11
yaifuz26 0.093 10
Dima K 0.030 30
fifty-sixty 0.025 10
Laser MazeTM Jr. 18 18 0
FILTER 1
Median 1 18.00
Std Dev 1 10.43
Outliers 1
FILTER 2
Median 2 19.15
Std Dev 2 10.43
Inliers 2 2, 5, 7, 10, 18, 18, 20, 25, 37
Outliers 2
Forecaster Weight Forecast
JP 0.203 18
cdob63 0.163 37
Ossipon 0.140 5
GJDrew 0.131 7
praedico 0.122 25
000 0.093 18
yaifuz26 0.093 20
Dima K 0.030 2
fifty-sixty 0.025 10
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