Double median filter

OK let’s try this:  Take all the forecasters in a question who have beat the crowd in some related questions.  Each forecaster’s weight is the sum of the accuracy scores in the questions they beat, so the more questions they were in, the higher their weight.  Take the 24 forecasters with the most negative sum of accuracy scores.  Take forecasts which are within 2 standard deviations of the median.  Take the median again and take remaining forecasts with 2 standard deviations of that.  Then take the average of those forecasts, and thats the prediction.

Thats about as much secret sauce as I’m ever going to have, short of actually thinking about each question and checking sources for open source news on the question.

I will explore the concept of actually thinking about a question in later posts, and the concept of checking sources later still.

With the above double median filter, I get the following results for Monday evening at 9:45PM EST:

IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16 Prior Update Diff
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive 0 2 2
6.40 or more 100 96 -4
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 0 2 2
Less than 6.30 0 0 0
IFP6. Asian Trilateral Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
IFP7. Jason Rezaian Prior Update Diff
Yes 61 61 0
IFP8. NK LICBM Prior Update Diff
Yes 63 64 1
IFP9. Venezuela Default Prior Update Diff
Yes 9 5 -4
IFP12. OPEC quota Prior Update Diff
Yes 2 1 -1
IFP13. Venice Lesbophobes Prior Update Diff
Yes 11 10 -1
IFP14. Africa polio Prior Update Diff
Yes 63 67 4
IFP15. Assad Out Prior Update Diff
Yes 24 20 -4
IFP17. Iran KSA party Prior Update Diff
Yes 4 3 -1
IFP18. TTIP Prior Update Diff
Yes 26 26 0
IFP19. Iran G7 party Prior Update Diff
Yes 58 53 -5
IFP22. Dilma Rousseff resign Prior Update Diff
Yes 12 6 -6
IFP25. Walking Dead Prior Update Diff
Glenn 24 28 4
All of the above will survive season 6 38 37 -1
Rick 1 0 -1
Carl 3 4 1
Carol 15 18 3
Daryl 19 12 -7
IFP29. Iran SWIFT Prior Update Diff
Yes 90 96 6
IFP30. Grexit Prior Update Diff
Yes 2 2 0
IFP31. WTI Prior Update Diff
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive 24 27 3
Less than $34.00 per barrel 76 73 -3
IFP34. South China ADIZ Prior Update Diff
Yes 45 42 -3
IFP35. Jurassic World Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 1 1
IFP36. Adnan Syed Prior Update Diff
Yes 13 13 0
IFP38. Trump Iowa
Prior Update Diff
Yes 17 12 -5
IFP39. Clinton New Hampshire Prior Update Diff
Yes 15 69 54
IFP40. IRA Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
IFP44. Goodell Prior Update Diff
Yes 99 97 -2
IFP45. Syrian refugees Prior Update Diff
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 36 34 -2
1 million or more 64 66 2
IFP46. Bitcoin Prior Update Diff
More than 250,000 37 44 7
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 57 54 -3
Less than 125,000 6 2 -4
IFP47. iPhones Prior Update Diff
Yes 93 89 -4
IFP48. Taiwan DPP
Prior Update Diff
Majority 50 46 -4
Plurality 46 51 5
Not a plurality 4 3 -1
IFP49. USG shutdown Prior Update Diff
Yes 1 0 -1
IFP50. BOJ easing Prior Update Diff
Yes 5 1 -4
IFP51. IAEA access Prior Update Diff
Yes 17 11 -6
IFP52. IAEA Iran stockpile Prior Update Diff
Yes 94 97 3
IFP53. Spain ruling coalition Prior Update Diff
Podemos 17 17 0
Both 10 8 -2
Neither 35 38 3
Ciudadanos 38 36 -2
IFP55. Malaysia controls Prior Update Diff
Yes 10 10 0
IFP56. Winds of Winter Prior Update Diff
Yes 100 29 -71
IFP57. Russia food embargo Prior Update Diff
More than five, but less than all 12 5 -7
0 63 72 9
All 2 0 -2
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 23 23 0
IFP61. Syria no-fly zone Prior Update Diff
Yes 3 1 -2
IFP62. KSA Prior Update Diff
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0 0 0
Yes, Someone else 0 0 0
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 2 2 0
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0 1 1
No 98 98 0
IFP63. VW Prior Update Diff
Yes 15 17 2
IFP64. Putin Abe Prior Update Diff
Yes 18 17 -1
IFP66. RCEP Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
IFP70. NATO 4 Prior Update Diff
Yes 50 52 2
IFP72. Iran Implementation Day
Prior Update Diff
Yes 72 83 11
IFP73. East China Sea brawl Prior Update Diff
Yes 17 12 -5
IFP74. PA Israel halt Prior Update Diff
Yes 14 12 -2
IFP75. Montenegro Djukanovic resign Prior Update Diff
Yes 0 0 0
IFP76. NK nuke test Prior Update Diff
Yes 58 58 0
IFP77. NATO 4 or 5 Prior Update Diff
Yes, only Article 5 6 7 1
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 6 5 -1
Yes, only Article 4 16 16 0
No 72 72 0
IFP78. Panama Canal Prior Update Diff
Yes 19 10 -9
IFP79. Putin Nuke Summit Prior Update Diff
Yes 13 10 -3
IFP80. Brexit Prior Update Diff
Yes 51 77 26
IFP81. GOP nominee Prior Update Diff
Jeb Bush 15 12 -3
Donald Trump 21 10 -11
Marco Rubio 33 42 9
Carly Fiorina 0 0 0
Ben Carson 3 1 -2
None of the above 4 4 0
Ted Cruz 24 31 7
IFP84. Turkey controls Prior Update Diff
Yes 37 43 6
IFP85. Afghani MOD
Prior Update Diff
Yes 45 43 -2
IFP86. ASEAN China Prior Update Diff
Yes 82 84 2
IFP87. IMF Prior Update Diff
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term 72 80 8
Someone from outside Europe 21 15 -6
Someone else from Europe 7 5 -2
IFP88. Superbowl Prior Update Diff
A team from the American Football Conference 43 43 0
A team from the National Football Conference 57 57 0
IFP89. Iran Competitiveness Prior Update Diff
Above 75 11 10 -1
Between 61 and 75, inclusive 67 68 1
In the top 50 2 2 0
Between 51 and 60, inclusive 20 20 0
IFP90. Akkuyu Suspension Prior Update Diff
Yes 63 58 -5
IFP93. BRIC Growth Prior Update Diff
Four 0 0 0
None 0 0 0
Two 96 94 -2
Three 3 4 1
One 1 2 1
IFP94. TIME off stand Prior Update Diff
Yes 23 15 -8
IFP95. NLD President Myanmar Prior Update Diff
Yes 92 94 2
IFP96. Foreign Legion to Syria Prior Update Diff
Yes 31 33 2
IFP97. Cyber Sanctions
Prior Update Diff
Yes 29 28 -1
IFP98. Montenegro NATO
Prior Update Diff
Yes 41 36 -5
IFP99. Iran Majles Conservative Prior Update Diff
Yes 85 83 -2
IFP100. India ICC Cricket
Prior Update Diff
Yes 19 20 1
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2 thoughts on “Double median filter

  1. I find the analysis you do fascinating. Could you post (or send me) the code you use? I’d like to do this type of analysis on my own, and the hardest part will be how to data-mine the gjopen website. Piggybacking on your effort would make it much easier.

    Like

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