Summary of open to-dos


Visualizing clusters of current forecasts.  Visualizing clusters weighted by forecaster category accuracy.

Decaying importance of old unupdated forecasts.  Actually I don’t think I need to decay because filtering against the median plus a standard deviation has the same effect.

Measuring correlation of accuracy scores on GJOpen assigned categories.  Producing synthetic categories (principal components?) for closed questions.  OK now that seems easy, just make a time series of forecasts for each question and then do PCA on that time series to produce some basis vectors.  The basis vectors are then the categories.  (Now I’m talking shit, right?  It sounds good but I’m not sure I believe myself listening to it. I have to actually try it instead of talking about it, amirite?)

Game-based models and Swedish logic.  Any other old numerical model including ones proposed by other forecasters.  Simulation-based models.  Models driven by RSS feeds.

Something involving one-shot Bayesian Program Learning.  (이봐! That’s a joke!)



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s