Sunday evening update

We consider a forecast more than 2.0 SD away from the median to be an outlier. Outliers are marked in red and ignored in the team forecast. The team includes up to 24 people who have beat the crowd in all related questions.

IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16
Branch Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive
Current 0 Update 3 Diff 3
Outliers 80, 75, 100 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 28.24
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.9% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.9% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.5% 0.00
974david -2.88 6.4% 25.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.2% 0.00
Wagle -2.66 5.9% 20.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.3% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.7% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.2% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 4.1% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 0.00
madre -1.79 4.0% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.9% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.9% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.7% 15.00
malcmur -1.68 3.7% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.7% 0.00
dada -1.65 3.7% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 0.00
Excluded
Falconer -4.90 80.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
Travist -1.63 75.00
Branch 6.40 or more
Current 100 Update 91 Diff -9
Outliers 0, 5 Median 98.00 Standard Deviation 36.08
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.4% 90.00
clinton -3.12 7.4% 100.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.9% 98.00
974david -2.88 6.8% 35.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.6% 95.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.7% 79.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.0% 100.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.9% 100.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.5% 75.00
GeneH -1.83 4.3% 100.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.3% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.3% 100.00
madre -1.79 4.2% 100.00
dkc -1.77 4.2% 100.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 4.1% 100.00
lsgold7 -1.68 4.0% 70.00
malcmur -1.68 4.0% 68.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.9% 98.00
dada -1.65 3.9% 99.00
austerity -1.60 3.8% 100.00
Excluded
Falconer -4.90 5.00
Wagle -2.66 5.00
slobodan -2.02 0.00
Travist -1.63 0.00
Branch More than 6.35 but less than 6.40
Current 0 Update 5 Diff 5
Outliers 32, 25 Median 1.50 Standard Deviation 10.31
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 10.8% 15.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.9% 10.00
clinton -3.12 6.9% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.5% 2.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.2% 5.00
Wagle -2.66 5.8% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.3% 21.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 4.0% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 0.00
madre -1.79 3.9% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.9% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.9% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.7% 15.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.7% 2.00
dada -1.65 3.6% 1.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 0.00
Excluded
974david -2.88 25.00
christianmaas -1.91 25.00
malcmur -1.68 32.00
Travist -1.63 25.00
Branch Less than 6.30
Current 0 Update 1 Diff 1
Outliers 65 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 13.20
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 9.6% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.1% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.1% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 5.8% 0.00
974david -2.88 5.6% 15.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.5% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 4.7% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.1% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.1% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.0% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 3.7% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 3.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.6% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.5% 0.00
madre -1.79 3.5% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.5% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.4% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 3.3% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.3% 0.00
dada -1.65 3.2% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.2% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
Wagle -2.66 65.00
IFP6. Asian Trilateral
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 1 Diff 1
Outliers 100 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 20.06
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.9% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.3% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.0% 0.00
clinton -2.88 6.0% 0.00
Wagle -2.66 5.5% 15.00
974david -2.44 5.1% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.6% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.6% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.0% 0.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.0% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.8% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.8% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 3.6% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.3% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.3% 0.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 2.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.2% 0.00
jkbick -1.49 3.1% 0.00
Manfred -1.49 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
CR -1.59 100.00
IFP7. Jason Rezaian
Branch Yes
Current 61 Update 61 Diff 0
Outliers 0 Median 63.50 Standard Deviation 30.31
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.3% 100.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.5% 70.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.3% 25.00
clinton -2.88 6.3% 35.00
Wagle -2.66 5.8% 15.00
974david -2.44 5.3% 75.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.8% 50.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.2% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.2% 50.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.0% 62.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 71.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.9% 69.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.8% 100.00
GeneH -1.72 3.7% 70.00
banda311 -1.61 3.5% 15.00
Travist -1.56 3.4% 90.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.4% 20.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.4% 75.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.3% 85.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.3% 42.00
Amir -1.47 3.2% 65.00
Excluded
CR -1.59 0.00
Manfred -1.49 0.00
IFP8. NK LICBM
Branch Yes
Current 63 Update 63 Diff 0
Outliers 9 Median 67.50 Standard Deviation 26.96
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.3% 87.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.3% 50.00
clinton -2.88 6.3% 72.00
Wagle -2.66 5.8% 15.00
974david -2.44 5.3% 85.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.8% 80.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.8% 37.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.2% 75.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.2% 45.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.0% 23.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 89.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.9% 65.00
CR -1.59 3.5% 98.00
Travist -1.56 3.4% 70.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.4% 90.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.3% 75.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.3% 32.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.3% 57.00
jkbick -1.49 3.2% 75.00
Amir -1.47 3.2% 25.00
malcmur -1.43 3.1% 27.00
austerity -1.40 3.1% 61.00
Excluded
Manfred -1.49 9.00
IFP9. Venezuela Default
Branch Yes
Current 9 Update 9 Diff 0
Outliers 59, 99, 65 Median 8.00 Standard Deviation 25.01
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 11.8% 0.00
clinton -3.12 7.5% 8.00
Wagle -2.66 6.4% 15.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.1% 10.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.0% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.8% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.7% 45.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.6% 33.00
GeneH -1.83 4.4% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.3% 12.00
madre -1.79 4.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 4.0% 5.00
scholarandcat -1.68 4.0% 1.00
dada -1.65 4.0% 5.00
austerity -1.60 3.8% 15.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.7% 1.00
jkbick -1.53 3.7% 10.00
Manfred -1.49 3.6% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.5% 25.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.5% 0.00
mparrault -1.40 3.4% 8.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 99.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 59.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 65.00
IFP12. OPEC quota
Branch Yes
Current 2 Update 2 Diff 0
Outliers 85 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 17.01
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 9.6% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.1% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.1% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 5.8% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.5% 1.00
Wagle -2.66 5.2% 15.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 4.7% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.1% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.1% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 3.9% 3.00
hyperionok -1.95 3.8% 5.00
christianmaas -1.91 3.7% 4.00
GeneH -1.83 3.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.6% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.5% 0.00
madre -1.79 3.5% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.5% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.4% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 3.3% 8.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.3% 0.00
dada -1.65 3.2% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.2% 1.00
Excluded
974david -2.88 85.00
IFP13. Venice Lesbophobes
Branch Yes
Current 11 Update 11 Diff 0
Outliers 99, 75 Median 11.50 Standard Deviation 26.35
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 12.7% 0.00
clinton -2.88 8.5% 4.00
Wagle -2.66 7.9% 15.00
slobodan -2.02 6.0% 1.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.7% 15.00
Raisinville -1.91 5.7% 18.00
Manfred -1.49 4.4% 0.00
ed3 -1.45 4.3% 10.00
malcmur -1.43 4.2% 7.00
austerity -1.40 4.2% 18.00
madre -1.36 4.0% 5.00
mparrault -1.32 3.9% 13.00
john27 -1.29 3.8% 15.00
JJMLP -1.24 3.7% 20.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.6% 0.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.2% 10.00
ccameron -1.01 3.0% 35.00
yaifuz26 -1.00 3.0% 55.00
Heffalump -0.98 2.9% 10.00
ravel -0.92 2.7% 5.00
Marius -0.87 2.6% 10.00
Excluded
974david -2.44 75.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 99.00
TVANKSTA -1.08 75.00
IFP14. Africa polio
Branch Yes
Current 63 Update 63 Diff 0
Outliers 1 Median 60.00 Standard Deviation 27.80
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.9% 100.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.7% 75.00
clinton -2.88 6.7% 59.00
Wagle -2.66 6.2% 95.00
974david -2.44 5.7% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.1% 5.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.5% 40.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.4% 67.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.2% 67.00
GeneH -1.72 4.0% 50.00
dkc -1.61 3.7% 55.00
Travist -1.56 3.6% 95.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.6% 90.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.5% 55.00
ed3 -1.45 3.4% 80.00
malcmur -1.43 3.3% 38.00
austerity -1.40 3.3% 63.00
madre -1.36 3.2% 100.00
Khalid -1.34 3.1% 60.00
mparrault -1.32 3.1% 60.00
john27 -1.29 3.0% 45.00
lindsey -1.27 3.0% 40.00
JJMLP -1.24 2.9% 70.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 1.00
IFP15. Assad Out
Branch Yes
Current 24 Update 24 Diff 0
Outliers 90, 100, 95 Median 21.00 Standard Deviation 31.63
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.5% 33.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.2% 10.00
clinton -2.88 7.1% 14.00
Wagle -2.66 6.6% 5.00
974david -2.44 6.1% 35.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.5% 15.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.4% 59.00
slobodan -2.02 5.0% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.8% 20.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.7% 20.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.5% 18.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.5% 43.00
GeneH -1.72 4.3% 75.00
dkc -1.61 4.0% 25.00
CR -1.59 4.0% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.9% 50.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.8% 15.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.8% 22.00
jkbick -1.49 3.7% 20.00
Manfred -1.49 3.7% 0.00
Excluded
Falconer -4.27 95.00
einsteinjs -1.82 90.00
lsgold7 -1.56 90.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 100.00
IFP17. Iran KSA party
Branch Yes
Current 4 Update 4 Diff 0
Outliers 61, 45 Median 1.00 Standard Deviation 15.23
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.6% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.8% 5.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.5% 10.00
clinton -2.88 6.5% 1.00
974david -2.44 5.5% 30.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.0% 11.00
slobodan -2.02 4.6% 4.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.4% 0.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.3% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.1% 6.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.1% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.9% 0.00
dkc -1.61 3.6% 2.00
banda311 -1.61 3.6% 1.00
CR -1.59 3.6% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.5% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.5% 0.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.5% 10.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.4% 1.00
Manfred -1.49 3.4% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.43 3.2% 2.00
Excluded
Mroochyslav -2.20 61.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 45.00
IFP18. TTIP
Branch Yes
Current 26 Update 26 Diff 0
Outliers 99, 100 Median 26.50 Standard Deviation 30.79
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 10.6% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.7% 69.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.3% 25.00
974david -2.88 6.2% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.2% 65.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.5% 25.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.5% 10.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.2% 40.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.1% 48.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.9% 2.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.9% 28.00
madre -1.79 3.9% 1.00
dkc -1.77 3.8% 30.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.8% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.6% 65.00
malcmur -1.68 3.6% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.6% 32.00
dada -1.65 3.6% 20.00
banda311 -1.65 3.5% 15.00
Travist -1.63 3.5% 80.00
austerity -1.60 3.4% 28.00
CR -1.59 3.4% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 99.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
IFP19. Iran G7 party
Branch Yes
Current 58 Update 58 Diff 0
Outliers Median 57.50 Standard Deviation 32.50
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.8% 95.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.2% 72.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 5.9% 50.00
clinton -2.88 5.9% 82.00
974david -2.44 5.0% 75.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.5% 99.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.5% 25.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 1.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.0% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 3.9% 40.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.8% 55.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.8% 85.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 63.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 100.00
GeneH -1.72 3.5% 10.00
banda311 -1.61 3.3% 75.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 100.00
Travist -1.56 3.2% 25.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 15.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 75.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.1% 2.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.1% 43.00
Manfred -1.49 3.1% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.0% 55.00
IFP22. Dilma Rousseff resign
Branch Yes
Current 14 Update 12 Diff -2
Outliers 97, 90, 95 Median 11.00 Standard Deviation 30.29
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.8% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.9% 6.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.7% 33.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.4% 5.00
974david -2.72 6.0% 15.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 5.0% 19.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -2.10 4.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 10.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.2% 3.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.0% 35.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 17.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.8% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.7% 12.00
banda311 -1.65 3.6% 12.00
ed3 -1.64 3.6% 5.00
dkc -1.63 3.6% 10.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 60.00
CR -1.59 3.5% 0.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.5% 30.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 97.00
madre -1.75 95.00
Travist -1.63 90.00
IFP25. Walking Dead
Branch Glenn
Current 24 Update 25 Diff 1
Outliers 99 Median 17.50 Standard Deviation 21.69
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Delorean -1.44 8.8% 15.00
dada -1.06 6.5% 40.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 6.4% 0.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.1% 20.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 6.1% 0.00
Ossipon -0.82 5.0% 15.00
JP -0.82 5.0% 45.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.8% 10.00
malcmur -0.78 4.8% 32.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.0% 29.00
ben -0.65 4.0% 30.00
petth -0.64 3.9% 0.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.9% 32.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.4% 35.00
000 -0.55 3.3% 24.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.3% 12.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.3% 45.00
SirRujak -0.53 3.2% 0.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.2% 0.00
mike97mike -0.49 3.0% 5.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 20.00
974david -0.44 2.7% 10.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 2.6% 5.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 99.00
Branch All of the above will survive season 6
Current 38 Update 37 Diff -1
Outliers 99, 100 Median 30.00 Standard Deviation 27.81
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.7% 0.00
Delorean -1.44 9.1% 60.00
dada -1.06 6.7% 40.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.3% 8.00
Ossipon -0.82 5.2% 5.00
JP -0.82 5.2% 40.00
Hammer Time -0.79 5.0% 60.00
malcmur -0.78 4.9% 11.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.2% 1.00
ben -0.65 4.1% 30.00
petth -0.64 4.0% 0.00
GJDrew -0.63 4.0% 30.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.5% 65.00
000 -0.55 3.5% 38.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.4% 50.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.4% 35.00
SirRujak -0.53 3.3% 10.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.3% 25.00
mike97mike -0.49 3.1% 30.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.9% 37.00
974david -0.44 2.7% 30.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 2.7% 0.00
Excluded
Mroochyslav -1.05 100.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 99.00
Branch Rick
Current 1 Update 2 Diff 1
Outliers 24, 25, 20 Median 0.50 Standard Deviation 7.71
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.6% 1.00
Delorean -1.44 9.0% 0.00
dada -1.06 6.6% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 6.6% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 6.3% 0.00
Ossipon -0.82 5.1% 5.00
JP -0.82 5.1% 0.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.9% 0.00
malcmur -0.78 4.9% 4.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.1% 2.00
ben -0.65 4.1% 0.00
petth -0.64 4.0% 0.00
GJDrew -0.63 4.0% 3.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.5% 0.00
000 -0.55 3.4% 1.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.4% 0.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.4% 0.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.3% 15.00
mike97mike -0.49 3.0% 5.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.9% 4.00
974david -0.44 2.7% 0.00
Excluded
Raisinville -1.01 24.00
SirRujak -0.53 20.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 25.00
Branch Carl
Current 3 Update 8 Diff 5
Outliers 50, 45 Median 5.00 Standard Deviation 15.69
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.4% 0.00
Delorean -1.44 8.8% 0.00
dada -1.06 6.4% 10.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 6.4% 0.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.1% 24.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 6.1% 0.00
Ossipon -0.82 5.0% 5.00
JP -0.82 5.0% 0.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.8% 5.00
malcmur -0.78 4.7% 16.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.0% 18.00
ben -0.65 4.0% 0.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.8% 3.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.4% 0.00
000 -0.55 3.3% 3.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.3% 5.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.3% 0.00
SirRujak -0.53 3.2% 10.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.2% 25.00
mike97mike -0.49 3.0% 5.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 5.00
Excluded
petth -0.64 50.00
974david -0.44 50.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 45.00
Branch Carol
Current 15 Update 15 Diff 0
Outliers 65, 50 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 15.60
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.4% 0.00
Delorean -1.44 8.7% 15.00
dada -1.06 6.4% 10.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 6.4% 0.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.1% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 6.1% 0.00
JP -0.82 5.0% 15.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.8% 10.00
malcmur -0.78 4.7% 19.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.0% 39.00
ben -0.65 3.9% 25.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.8% 12.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.4% 0.00
000 -0.55 3.3% 15.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.3% 18.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.3% 20.00
SirRujak -0.53 3.2% 10.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.2% 15.00
mike97mike -0.49 2.9% 25.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 16.00
974david -0.44 2.6% 10.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 2.6% 5.00
Excluded
Ossipon -0.82 65.00
petth -0.64 50.00
Branch Daryl
Current 19 Update 12 Diff -7
Outliers 50 Median 13.00 Standard Deviation 12.25
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 8.9% 0.00
Delorean -1.44 8.3% 10.00
dada -1.06 6.1% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 6.0% 0.00
Raisinville -1.01 5.8% 24.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 5.7% 0.00
Ossipon -0.82 4.7% 5.00
JP -0.82 4.7% 0.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.5% 15.00
malcmur -0.78 4.5% 18.00
cdob63 -0.66 3.8% 11.00
ben -0.65 3.7% 15.00
petth -0.64 3.7% 0.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.6% 20.00
Fsugirl24 -0.55 3.2% 0.00
000 -0.55 3.2% 19.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.1% 15.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.1% 0.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.0% 20.00
mike97mike -0.49 2.8% 30.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.6% 18.00
974david -0.44 2.5% 0.00
TVANKSTA -0.43 2.4% 20.00
Excluded
SirRujak -0.53 50.00
IFP29. Iran SWIFT
Branch Yes
Current 90 Update 90 Diff 0
Outliers 0, 5 Median 92.50 Standard Deviation 26.87
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.7% 100.00
clinton -3.12 6.8% 100.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.6% 95.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.4% 95.00
974david -2.72 5.9% 65.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.9% 85.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.6% 70.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.5% 90.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.9% 97.00
madre -1.75 3.8% 100.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.8% 100.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.6% 95.00
banda311 -1.65 3.6% 95.00
dkc -1.63 3.6% 100.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 90.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 100.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.4% 55.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.4% 90.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.4% 90.00
donmars -1.51 3.3% 87.00
Manfred -1.49 3.3% 74.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 5.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0.00
IFP30. Grexit
Branch Yes
Current 2 Update 3 Diff 1
Outliers 25 Median 2.50 Standard Deviation 5.51
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 9.6% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.1% 2.00
clinton -3.12 6.1% 4.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 5.8% 3.00
974david -2.88 5.7% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.5% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 4.7% 5.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.1% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.1% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.0% 2.00
christianmaas -1.91 3.8% 7.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.6% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.6% 5.00
madre -1.79 3.5% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.5% 5.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.5% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.3% 1.00
malcmur -1.68 3.3% 3.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.3% 10.00
dada -1.65 3.2% 1.00
banda311 -1.65 3.2% 5.00
Travist -1.63 3.2% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.1% 13.00
Excluded
hyperionok -1.95 25.00
IFP31. WTI
Branch Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive
Current 24 Update 28 Diff 4
Outliers 99, 100 Median 22.50 Standard Deviation 31.94
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.1% 40.00
clinton -3.12 7.0% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.6% 25.00
974david -2.88 6.5% 35.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.4% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.4% 41.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.7% 20.00
slobodan -2.02 4.6% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.4% 20.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.3% 35.00
GeneH -1.83 4.1% 25.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.1% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.1% 18.00
madre -1.79 4.0% 20.00
dkc -1.77 4.0% 5.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 4.0% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 3.8% 85.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.8% 25.00
dada -1.65 3.7% 6.00
banda311 -1.65 3.7% 35.00
Travist -1.63 3.7% 10.00
Excluded
Raisinville -2.11 100.00
lsgold7 -1.68 99.00
FuturoMAGE -1.61 100.00
Branch Less than $34.00 per barrel
Current 76 Update 72 Diff -4
Outliers Median 70.00 Standard Deviation 38.39
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.3% 60.00
clinton -3.12 6.3% 100.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 5.9% 75.00
974david -2.88 5.8% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.7% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 4.9% 59.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.2% 80.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 100.00
hyperionok -1.95 3.9% 5.00
christianmaas -1.91 3.8% 65.00
GeneH -1.83 3.7% 75.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.7% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.6% 82.00
madre -1.79 3.6% 80.00
dkc -1.77 3.6% 95.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.5% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.4% 1.00
malcmur -1.68 3.4% 15.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.4% 75.00
dada -1.65 3.3% 94.00
banda311 -1.65 3.3% 50.00
Travist -1.63 3.3% 90.00
FuturoMAGE -1.61 3.2% 0.00
IFP33. Oil export ban
Branch Yes
Current 100 Update 93 Diff -7
Outliers 0, 2, 20 Median 99.50 Standard Deviation 31.32
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.92 9.0% 99.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.4% 100.00
jeremylichtman -1.94 6.0% 100.00
dada -1.90 5.9% 95.00
Rebel ran riot -1.86 5.8% 99.00
Mroochyslav -1.64 5.1% 79.00
malcmur -1.58 4.9% 100.00
madre -1.56 4.8% 100.00
wlmsears -1.48 4.6% 90.00
Delorean -1.44 4.5% 100.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.4% 100.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.4% 100.00
hyperionok -1.37 4.2% 60.00
Jean-Pierre -1.34 4.1% 100.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.27 3.9% 100.00
cmeinel -1.26 3.9% 100.00
TVANKSTA -1.25 3.9% 85.00
ccameron -1.22 3.8% 85.00
nls -1.15 3.6% 100.00
austerity -1.12 3.5% 100.00
KaiserSoze -1.11 3.4% 45.00
Excluded
Falconer -2.41 0.00
slobodan -1.35 2.00
grossz18 -1.21 20.00
IFP34. South China ADIZ
Branch Yes
Current 45 Update 45 Diff 0
Outliers Median 41.50 Standard Deviation 31.42
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.9% 72.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.3% 30.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.0% 30.00
clinton -2.88 6.0% 51.00
974david -2.44 5.1% 85.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.6% 89.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.6% 61.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.0% 30.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.0% 3.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.8% 8.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
dkc -1.61 3.3% 50.00
banda311 -1.61 3.3% 66.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.2% 75.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 80.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 55.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 10.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.2% 33.00
jkbick -1.49 3.1% 60.00
Manfred -1.49 3.1% 10.00
Amir -1.47 3.1% 15.00
IFP35. Jurassic World
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 3 Diff 3
Outliers 75, 99 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 24.62
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Delorean -1.44 7.1% 0.00
madre -1.21 5.9% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.14 5.6% 0.00
wlmsears -1.12 5.5% 10.00
dada -1.06 5.2% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.06 5.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 5.1% 0.00
BlackJackBones -1.02 5.0% 33.00
Xu -1.02 5.0% 0.00
Raisinville -1.01 4.9% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 4.9% 0.00
Ossipon -0.82 4.0% 0.00
JP -0.82 4.0% 0.00
donmars -0.82 4.0% 0.00
Hammer Time -0.79 3.9% 10.00
Khalid -0.78 3.8% 0.00
malcmur -0.78 3.8% 0.00
hyperionok -0.78 3.8% 1.00
GeneH -0.73 3.6% 0.00
BestGuess -0.69 3.4% 0.00
cdob63 -0.66 3.2% 0.00
brian -0.65 3.2% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 99.00
Testbravo52 -0.67 75.00
IFP36. Adnan Syed
Branch Yes
Current 13 Update 13 Diff 0
Outliers 50, 60 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 15.47
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 10.0% 5.00
madre -1.21 7.9% 3.00
BlackJackBones -1.02 6.6% 21.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.5% 10.00
Hammer Time -0.79 5.1% 0.00
malcmur -0.78 5.1% 5.00
Testbravo52 -0.67 4.3% 25.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.3% 4.00
ben -0.65 4.2% 15.00
GJDrew -0.63 4.1% 25.00
Heffalump -0.62 4.0% 15.00
clinton -0.62 4.0% 33.00
cmeinel -0.60 3.9% 13.00
000 -0.55 3.6% 13.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.5% 20.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.5% 0.00
slobodan -0.54 3.5% 5.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.4% 45.00
The Brown Recluse -0.51 3.3% 7.00
AngrySloth -0.48 3.1% 25.00
MAA414 -0.46 3.0% 20.00
scholarandcat -0.46 3.0% 15.00
Excluded
petth -0.64 50.00
praedico -0.53 60.00
IFP38. Trump Iowa
Branch Yes
Current 18 Update 17 Diff -1
Outliers 100 Median 20.00 Standard Deviation 23.94
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 7.9% 0.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.6% 8.00
dada -1.90 6.0% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.0% 59.00
madre -1.56 4.9% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 4.6% 35.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.5% 40.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.5% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.5% 1.00
ed3 -1.36 4.3% 45.00
slobodan -1.35 4.3% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.27 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.26 4.0% 12.00
wlmsears -1.23 3.9% 35.00
ccameron -1.22 3.8% 33.00
nls -1.15 3.6% 20.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.6% 35.00
yaifuz26 -1.10 3.4% 20.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.4% 20.00
hyperionok -1.07 3.4% 35.00
boz -1.06 3.3% 28.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.3% 0.00
GeneH -1.04 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
Falconer -2.41 100.00
IFP39. Clinton New Hampshire
Branch Yes
Current 15 Update 66 Diff 51
Outliers 5 Median 60.00 Standard Deviation 25.15
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -2.41 7.8% 100.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.7% 55.00
dada -1.90 6.1% 60.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.1% 41.00
madre -1.56 5.0% 100.00
malcmur -1.47 4.7% 82.00
Delorean -1.44 4.6% 55.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.6% 50.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.6% 99.00
slobodan -1.35 4.4% 100.00
cmeinel -1.26 4.1% 50.00
wlmsears -1.23 3.9% 60.00
ccameron -1.22 3.9% 65.00
nls -1.15 3.7% 85.00
Markmsl -1.11 3.6% 45.00
yaifuz26 -1.10 3.5% 65.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.4% 20.00
hyperionok -1.07 3.4% 25.00
boz -1.06 3.4% 57.00
Khalid -1.06 3.4% 45.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.4% 85.00
GeneH -1.04 3.4% 75.00
clinton -1.04 3.3% 65.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 5.00
IFP40. IRA
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 1 Diff 1
Outliers 40 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 8.15
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.2% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.4% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.2% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.0% 0.00
974david -2.72 5.6% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 4.9% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.3% 0.00
einsteinjs -2.10 4.3% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 3.9% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.7% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 0.00
madre -1.75 3.6% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.4% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 3.4% 10.00
ed3 -1.64 3.4% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.3% 0.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 3.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.2% 0.00
jkbick -1.49 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
hyperionok -1.57 40.00
IFP44. Goodell
Branch Yes
Current 99 Update 97 Diff -2
Outliers 80, 75 Median 98.00 Standard Deviation 6.84
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 8.3% 100.00
Delorean -1.44 7.7% 99.00
madre -1.21 6.5% 100.00
einsteinjs -1.14 6.1% 100.00
dada -1.06 5.7% 99.00
Raisinville -1.01 5.4% 99.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 5.4% 99.00
JP -0.82 4.4% 100.00
Hammer Time -0.79 4.2% 90.00
malcmur -0.78 4.2% 98.00
hyperionok -0.78 4.2% 98.00
Rather Witless Design -0.76 4.1% 100.00
cdob63 -0.66 3.5% 98.00
grossz18 -0.66 3.5% 98.00
ben -0.65 3.5% 90.00
brian -0.65 3.5% 95.00
bssc23 -0.64 3.4% 88.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.4% 90.00
mazagj2 -0.62 3.3% 85.00
Heffalump -0.62 3.3% 94.00
clinton -0.62 3.3% 100.00
cmeinel -0.60 3.2% 100.00
Excluded
petth -0.64 75.00
ke -0.64 80.00
IFP45. Syrian refugees
Branch More than 710,000 but less than 1 million
Current 26 Update 37 Diff 11
Outliers Median 30.00 Standard Deviation 30.19
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.9% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.3% 30.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.0% 50.00
clinton -2.88 6.0% 30.00
974david -2.44 5.1% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.6% 85.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.6% 59.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.1% 50.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.0% 40.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.8% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 65.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 3.6% 65.00
dkc -1.61 3.4% 10.00
Travist -1.56 3.3% 5.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 45.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.2% 65.00
Amir -1.47 3.1% 1.00
ed3 -1.45 3.0% 85.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.0% 10.00
malcmur -1.43 3.0% 80.00
austerity -1.40 2.9% 15.00
Branch 1 million or more
Current 74 Update 63 Diff -11
Outliers Median 55.00 Standard Deviation 34.81
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.9% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.3% 70.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.0% 50.00
clinton -2.88 6.0% 70.00
974david -2.44 5.1% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.6% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.6% 41.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.1% 50.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.0% 60.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.8% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 35.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 100.00
GeneH -1.72 3.6% 35.00
dkc -1.61 3.4% 90.00
Travist -1.56 3.3% 95.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 35.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 100.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.2% 35.00
Amir -1.47 3.1% 99.00
ed3 -1.45 3.0% 15.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.0% 90.00
malcmur -1.43 3.0% 20.00
austerity -1.40 2.9% 85.00
IFP46. Bitcoin
Branch More than 250,000
Current 50 Update 37 Diff -13
Outliers 97, 100 Median 27.50 Standard Deviation 33.20
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 9.1% 25.00
clinton -2.88 8.7% 82.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 6.6% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 6.6% 41.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.8% 50.00
Raisinville -1.91 5.8% 5.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.4% 18.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 5.2% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.6% 10.00
malcmur -1.43 4.3% 11.00
austerity -1.40 4.2% 80.00
madre -1.36 4.1% 55.00
mparrault -1.32 4.0% 30.00
john27 -1.29 3.9% 17.00
boz -1.19 3.6% 48.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.2% 60.00
ccameron -1.01 3.0% 15.00
yaifuz26 -1.00 3.0% 5.00
donmars -0.99 3.0% 15.00
Heffalump -0.98 3.0% 60.00
Rebel ran riot -0.95 2.9% 1.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
Anneinak -1.21 100.00
redacted -1.09 97.00
Branch Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive
Current 50 Update 57 Diff 7
Outliers Median 52.50 Standard Deviation 30.77
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.0% 70.00
clinton -2.88 7.7% 18.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.9% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.9% 59.00
slobodan -2.02 5.4% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.2% 50.00
Raisinville -1.91 5.1% 70.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.8% 69.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.6% 100.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.1% 90.00
malcmur -1.43 3.8% 86.00
austerity -1.40 3.7% 20.00
madre -1.36 3.6% 44.00
mparrault -1.32 3.5% 62.00
john27 -1.29 3.4% 75.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.2% 0.00
boz -1.19 3.2% 43.00
redacted -1.09 2.9% 3.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.8% 40.00
ccameron -1.01 2.7% 55.00
yaifuz26 -1.00 2.7% 20.00
donmars -0.99 2.6% 60.00
Heffalump -0.98 2.6% 40.00
Rebel ran riot -0.95 2.5% 99.00
Branch Less than 125,000
Current 0 Update 6 Diff 6
Outliers 75, 100 Median 0.50 Standard Deviation 24.48
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.8% 5.00
clinton -2.88 8.4% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 6.4% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.9% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.6% 0.00
Raisinville -1.91 5.6% 25.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.3% 13.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 5.0% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.4% 0.00
malcmur -1.43 4.2% 3.00
austerity -1.40 4.1% 0.00
madre -1.36 4.0% 1.00
mparrault -1.32 3.9% 8.00
john27 -1.29 3.8% 8.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.5% 0.00
boz -1.19 3.5% 9.00
redacted -1.09 3.2% 0.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.1% 0.00
ccameron -1.01 2.9% 30.00
donmars -0.99 2.9% 25.00
Heffalump -0.98 2.9% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -0.95 2.8% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 100.00
yaifuz26 -1.00 75.00
IFP47. iPhones
Branch Yes
Current 90 Update 93 Diff 3
Outliers 65, 55 Median 92.50 Standard Deviation 11.24
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 7.5% 89.00
Delorean -1.44 7.0% 95.00
madre -1.21 5.9% 95.00
einsteinjs -1.14 5.6% 100.00
dada -1.06 5.2% 100.00
Mroochyslav -1.05 5.1% 89.00
BlackJackBones -1.02 5.0% 98.00
Xu -1.02 5.0% 97.00
Raisinville -1.01 4.9% 100.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 4.9% 99.00
Falconer -0.98 4.8% 100.00
aaseawaf15 -0.93 4.6% 80.00
Ossipon -0.82 4.0% 80.00
Khalid -0.78 3.8% 85.00
malcmur -0.78 3.8% 85.00
hyperionok -0.78 3.8% 85.00
GeneH -0.73 3.6% 100.00
cdob63 -0.66 3.2% 89.00
brian -0.65 3.2% 98.00
petth -0.64 3.1% 90.00
Heffalump -0.62 3.0% 82.00
clinton -0.62 3.0% 96.00
Excluded
jeremylichtman -1.06 65.00
GJDrew -0.63 55.00
IFP48. Taiwan DPP
Branch Majority
Current 50 Update 50 Diff 0
Outliers Median 45.00 Standard Deviation 27.85
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 7.9% 50.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.4% 75.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.0% 10.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.3% 30.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.1% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 4.8% 70.00
madre -1.75 4.4% 33.00
ed3 -1.64 4.1% 20.00
austerity -1.60 4.0% 70.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.0% 90.00
donmars -1.51 3.8% 30.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.7% 88.00
malcmur -1.43 3.6% 41.00
mparrault -1.41 3.6% 35.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.3% 15.00
john27 -1.29 3.3% 26.00
Dima K -1.22 3.1% 72.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.0% 45.00
boz -1.19 3.0% 57.00
TVANKSTA -1.12 2.8% 65.00
ccameron -1.12 2.8% 25.00
redacted -1.09 2.8% 95.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.7% 45.00
Branch Plurality
Current 46 Update 46 Diff 0
Outliers Median 47.50 Standard Deviation 24.01
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 7.9% 50.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.4% 23.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.0% 90.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.3% 65.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.3% 50.00
slobodan -2.02 5.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.8% 30.00
madre -1.75 4.4% 63.00
ed3 -1.64 4.1% 75.00
austerity -1.60 4.0% 30.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.0% 10.00
donmars -1.51 3.8% 70.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.7% 12.00
malcmur -1.43 3.6% 54.00
mparrault -1.41 3.6% 58.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.3% 75.00
john27 -1.29 3.3% 67.00
Dima K -1.22 3.1% 26.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.0% 35.00
boz -1.19 3.0% 38.00
TVANKSTA -1.12 2.8% 35.00
ccameron -1.12 2.8% 65.00
redacted -1.09 2.8% 5.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.7% 45.00
Branch Not a plurality
Current 4 Update 3 Diff -1
Outliers 50 Median 3.00 Standard Deviation 10.37
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 8.3% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.8% 2.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.3% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.6% 5.00
slobodan -2.02 5.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 5.1% 0.00
madre -1.75 4.7% 4.00
ed3 -1.64 4.4% 5.00
austerity -1.60 4.3% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.2% 0.00
donmars -1.51 4.0% 0.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.9% 0.00
malcmur -1.43 3.8% 5.00
mparrault -1.41 3.8% 7.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.5% 10.00
john27 -1.29 3.4% 7.00
Dima K -1.22 3.3% 2.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.2% 20.00
boz -1.19 3.2% 5.00
TVANKSTA -1.12 3.0% 0.00
ccameron -1.12 3.0% 10.00
redacted -1.09 2.9% 0.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.8% 10.00
Excluded
Clairvoyance -2.08 50.00
IFP49. USG shutdown
Branch Yes
Current 1 Update 1 Diff 0
Outliers 33, 30 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 8.65
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 7.8% 1.00
Falconer -2.41 7.6% 0.00
dada -1.90 6.0% 3.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 4.9% 0.00
madre -1.56 4.9% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.47 4.6% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 4.6% 0.00
Delorean -1.44 4.5% 0.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.5% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.4% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.4% 0.00
ed3 -1.36 4.3% 0.00
slobodan -1.35 4.2% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.27 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.26 4.0% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 3.8% 0.00
ccameron -1.22 3.8% 1.00
grossz18 -1.21 3.8% 5.00
nls -1.15 3.6% 0.00
yaifuz26 -1.10 3.4% 5.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.4% 0.00
AlexisTocqueville -1.06 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
Raisinville -2.08 30.00
hyperionok -1.07 33.00
IFP50. BOJ easing
Branch Yes
Current 3 Update 5 Diff 2
Outliers 80, 90, 100, 95 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 34.03
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.9% 0.00
clinton -3.12 7.8% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 7.4% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 6.1% 11.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.3% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.2% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.9% 35.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.8% 41.00
GeneH -1.83 4.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.6% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.5% 0.00
madre -1.79 4.5% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 4.4% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 4.2% 8.00
scholarandcat -1.68 4.2% 0.00
dada -1.65 4.1% 0.00
austerity -1.60 4.0% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.9% 0.00
Manfred -1.49 3.7% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 3.7% 0.00
Excluded
Falconer -4.90 95.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 80.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
lsgold7 -1.68 90.00
IFP51. IAEA access
Branch Yes
Current 13 Update 17 Diff 4
Outliers 85 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 24.43
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.7% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.8% 15.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.6% 20.00
clinton -2.88 6.6% 2.00
974david -2.44 5.6% 25.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.0% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.0% 59.00
slobodan -2.02 4.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.4% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.4% 5.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.1% 15.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.9% 0.00
banda311 -1.61 3.7% 10.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.6% 15.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.5% 15.00
Manfred -1.49 3.4% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.3% 15.00
DBlitz -1.46 3.3% 25.00
malcmur -1.43 3.3% 35.00
austerity -1.40 3.2% 26.00
madre -1.36 3.1% 15.00
Khalid -1.34 3.0% 30.00
Excluded
Travist -1.56 85.00
hyperionok -1.54 85.00
IFP52. IAEA Iran stockpile
Branch Yes
Current 93 Update 94 Diff 1
Outliers 9, 20, 37 Median 95.00 Standard Deviation 25.33
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 10.2% 100.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.2% 95.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.9% 95.00
clinton -2.88 6.9% 100.00
974david -2.44 5.8% 75.00
slobodan -2.02 4.8% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.6% 88.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.6% 99.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.4% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.3% 100.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.1% 100.00
dkc -1.61 3.8% 95.00
Travist -1.56 3.7% 95.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.7% 80.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.7% 75.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.6% 99.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.6% 100.00
Manfred -1.49 3.6% 95.00
Amir -1.47 3.5% 98.00
malcmur -1.43 3.4% 83.00
austerity -1.40 3.4% 100.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 9.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 37.00
banda311 -1.61 20.00
IFP53. Spain ruling coalition
Branch Podemos
Current 5 Update 16 Diff 11
Outliers 75, 100 Median 7.50 Standard Deviation 25.73
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.8% 1.00
Wagle -2.66 7.1% 40.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.3% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 6.0% 2.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.5% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 5.0% 40.00
madre -1.75 4.6% 0.00
ed3 -1.64 4.3% 5.00
dkc -1.63 4.3% 0.00
austerity -1.60 4.2% 0.00
dada -1.48 3.9% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.9% 35.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.9% 2.00
malcmur -1.43 3.8% 50.00
mparrault -1.41 3.7% 10.00
KSpain -1.40 3.7% 5.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.4% 0.00
john27 -1.29 3.4% 20.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.2% 25.00
RF -1.20 3.2% 15.00
boz -1.19 3.2% 11.00
Excluded
974david -2.72 75.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
Branch Both
Current 1 Update 11 Diff 10
Outliers 80, 50, 70 Median 3.00 Standard Deviation 22.48
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
974david -2.72 7.6% 25.00
Wagle -2.66 7.5% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 6.3% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.9% 22.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.8% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.7% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 5.4% 0.00
madre -1.75 4.9% 0.00
ed3 -1.64 4.6% 0.00
dkc -1.63 4.6% 35.00
dada -1.48 4.2% 0.00
Amir -1.47 4.1% 25.00
Anneinak -1.46 4.1% 25.00
malcmur -1.43 4.0% 0.00
mparrault -1.41 4.0% 5.00
KSpain -1.40 3.9% 1.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.6% 0.00
john27 -1.29 3.6% 1.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.4% 15.00
RF -1.20 3.4% 0.00
boz -1.19 3.3% 7.00
Excluded
Jean-Pierre -2.93 70.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 80.00
austerity -1.60 50.00
Branch Neither
Current 36 Update 35 Diff -1
Outliers 100, 86 Median 32.50 Standard Deviation 26.55
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.4% 25.00
974david -2.72 6.9% 0.00
Wagle -2.66 6.8% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.0% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 5.7% 31.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.4% 10.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.3% 50.00
slobodan -2.02 5.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.8% 60.00
ed3 -1.64 4.2% 70.00
dkc -1.63 4.2% 30.00
austerity -1.60 4.1% 50.00
dada -1.48 3.8% 60.00
Amir -1.47 3.7% 15.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.7% 34.00
malcmur -1.43 3.6% 0.00
mparrault -1.41 3.6% 40.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.3% 35.00
john27 -1.29 3.3% 20.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 3.1% 45.00
RF -1.20 3.1% 25.00
boz -1.19 3.0% 44.00
Excluded
madre -1.75 100.00
KSpain -1.40 86.00
Branch Ciudadanos
Current 58 Update 38 Diff -20
Outliers Median 36.50 Standard Deviation 24.15
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.9% 4.00
974david -2.72 6.4% 0.00
Wagle -2.66 6.3% 50.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 5.6% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 5.3% 67.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.0% 68.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.9% 50.00
slobodan -2.02 4.7% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.5% 0.00
madre -1.75 4.1% 0.00
ed3 -1.64 3.9% 25.00
dkc -1.63 3.8% 35.00
austerity -1.60 3.8% 0.00
dada -1.48 3.5% 40.00
Amir -1.47 3.5% 25.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.4% 39.00
malcmur -1.43 3.4% 50.00
mparrault -1.41 3.3% 45.00
KSpain -1.40 3.3% 8.00
JJMLP -1.30 3.1% 65.00
john27 -1.29 3.0% 59.00
yaifuz26 -1.20 2.8% 15.00
RF -1.20 2.8% 60.00
boz -1.19 2.8% 38.00
IFP55. Malaysia controls
Branch Yes
Current 8 Update 10 Diff 2
Outliers 65, 75, 60 Median 11.50 Standard Deviation 23.18
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 9.5% 3.00
Raisinville -2.11 6.4% 4.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 6.3% 15.00
slobodan -2.02 6.1% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.8% 15.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.5% 10.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 5.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 5.1% 7.00
dada -1.65 5.0% 5.00
austerity -1.60 4.8% 35.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 4.6% 5.00
Manfred -1.49 4.5% 14.00
Anneinak -1.46 4.4% 11.00
mparrault -1.40 4.2% 15.00
RF -1.33 4.0% 30.00
john27 -1.29 3.9% 15.00
donmars -1.23 3.7% 10.00
ccameron -1.22 3.7% 12.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.6% 1.00
Bdelaney -1.18 3.6% 10.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 60.00
hyperionok -1.95 65.00
banda311 -1.65 75.00
KSpain -1.55 75.00
IFP56. Winds of Winter
Branch Yes
Current 100 Update 44 Diff -56
Outliers Median 46.00 Standard Deviation 31.90
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.5% 100.00
Delorean -1.44 8.9% 1.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.2% 40.00
Khalid -0.78 4.8% 65.00
malcmur -0.78 4.8% 65.00
anmins -0.69 4.3% 10.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.1% 42.00
ben -0.65 4.0% 10.00
petth -0.64 3.9% 20.00
GJDrew -0.63 3.9% 55.00
Heffalump -0.62 3.8% 50.00
austerity -0.58 3.6% 75.00
Bosco -0.58 3.6% 0.00
000 -0.55 3.4% 100.00
NickLutz -0.55 3.4% 50.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.4% 10.00
davecrosby -0.54 3.3% 5.00
praedico -0.53 3.3% 65.00
yaifuz26 -0.53 3.3% 65.00
RobGreco -0.51 3.2% 8.00
MAA414 -0.46 2.9% 52.00
scole2000 -0.46 2.8% 100.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 20.00
JMODE -0.44 2.7% 15.00
IFP57. Russia food embargo
Branch More than five, but less than all
Current 4 Update 12 Diff 8
Outliers 100, 85, 70 Median 5.00 Standard Deviation 32.29
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.8% 5.00
clinton -3.12 7.8% 20.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 7.4% 2.00
974david -2.88 7.2% 15.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 6.0% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.3% 30.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.2% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.9% 40.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.8% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.5% 2.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 4.4% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 4.2% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 4.1% 5.00
Travist -1.63 4.1% 0.00
CR -1.59 4.0% 0.00
jkbick -1.53 3.8% 5.00
Amir -1.47 3.7% 34.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.7% 0.00
DBlitz -1.46 3.7% 30.00
mparrault -1.40 3.5% 2.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 100.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
madre -1.79 70.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 85.00
Branch 0
Current 79 Update 63 Diff -16
Outliers Median 62.00 Standard Deviation 35.26
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.5% 65.00
clinton -3.12 6.5% 74.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.1% 80.00
974david -2.88 6.0% 55.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.9% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.0% 59.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.4% 25.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 75.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.0% 15.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.0% 70.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 80.00
madre -1.79 3.7% 5.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.7% 100.00
malcmur -1.68 3.5% 68.00
banda311 -1.65 3.4% 85.00
Travist -1.63 3.4% 5.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 100.00
jkbick -1.53 3.2% 50.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 3.1% 5.00
Amir -1.47 3.1% 5.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.0% 91.00
DBlitz -1.46 3.0% 5.00
mparrault -1.40 2.9% 80.00
Branch All
Current 0 Update 2 Diff 2
Outliers 10, 11, 13, 15 Median 0.50 Standard Deviation 4.57
Forecasters 24 Included 20 Excluded 4
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 8.0% 1.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 7.5% 6.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 7.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 6.2% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 5.4% 5.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.2% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 5.0% 5.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.9% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.6% 6.00
madre -1.79 4.6% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 4.5% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 4.2% 0.00
Travist -1.63 4.2% 0.00
CR -1.59 4.1% 0.00
jkbick -1.53 3.9% 5.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 3.9% 5.00
Amir -1.47 3.8% 6.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.7% 0.00
DBlitz -1.46 3.7% 0.00
Excluded
fifty-sixty -3.12 10.00
974david -2.88 15.00
malcmur -1.68 13.00
mparrault -1.40 11.00
Branch Between 1 and 5, inclusive
Current 17 Update 23 Diff 6
Outliers 65, 95 Median 17.00 Standard Deviation 23.20
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.9% 20.00
clinton -3.12 6.9% 5.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.5% 12.00
974david -2.88 6.4% 15.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.3% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.4% 41.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.7% 40.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 25.00
slobodan -2.02 4.5% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 4.3% 40.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.2% 30.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 12.00
madre -1.79 4.0% 25.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.9% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 3.7% 19.00
banda311 -1.65 3.7% 10.00
CR -1.59 3.5% 0.00
jkbick -1.53 3.4% 40.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 3.3% 5.00
Amir -1.47 3.3% 55.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.2% 9.00
mparrault -1.40 3.1% 7.00
Excluded
Travist -1.63 95.00
DBlitz -1.46 65.00
IFP61. Syria no-fly zone
Branch Yes
Current 1 Update 3 Diff 2
Outliers 74 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 15.09
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.0% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.3% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.1% 0.00
clinton -2.88 6.0% 0.00
Wagle -2.66 5.6% 20.00
974david -2.44 5.1% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.6% 11.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.1% 0.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.0% 2.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.8% 2.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.8% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 3.6% 0.00
dkc -1.61 3.4% 0.00
banda311 -1.61 3.4% 10.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.3% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.3% 0.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 5.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.2% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 74.00
IFP62. KSA
Branch Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 10 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 2.07
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.3% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.5% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.3% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.1% 0.00
974david -2.72 5.7% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.7% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.4% 1.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.2% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.0% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.8% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 2.00
madre -1.75 3.6% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 3.4% 0.00
dkc -1.63 3.4% 3.00
Travist -1.63 3.4% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.3% 0.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.3% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.2% 1.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 10.00
Branch Yes, Someone else
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 9, 5, 7 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 2.44
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.8% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.8% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.7% 1.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.4% 4.00
974david -2.72 6.0% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 5.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.9% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 4.2% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 0.00
madre -1.75 3.8% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.8% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 3.6% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 0.00
CR -1.59 3.5% 0.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.4% 2.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.4% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
dkc -1.63 5.00
austerity -1.60 9.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 7.00
Branch Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef
Current 2 Update 3 Diff 1
Outliers 85 Median 1.00 Standard Deviation 17.01
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.2% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.4% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.2% 2.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.0% 4.00
974david -2.72 5.6% 1.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 4.9% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.6% 17.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.3% 2.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 3.9% 15.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.7% 7.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 2.00
madre -1.75 3.6% 1.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 0.00
dkc -1.63 3.3% 3.00
Travist -1.63 3.3% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.3% 9.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.2% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 5.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.2% 1.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
banda311 -1.65 85.00
Branch Yes, Mohammed bin Salman
Current 0 Update 1 Diff 1
Outliers 19 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 3.85
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.1% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.4% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.2% 2.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.0% 2.00
974david -2.72 5.6% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 4.9% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.6% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.3% 2.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.90 3.9% 5.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.7% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 2.00
madre -1.75 3.6% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.5% 0.00
banda311 -1.65 3.4% 0.00
dkc -1.63 3.3% 2.00
Travist -1.63 3.3% 0.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 0.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.2% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.2% 1.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 3.1% 0.00
Excluded
austerity -1.60 19.00
Branch No
Current 98 Update 96 Diff -2
Outliers 15 Median 95.00 Standard Deviation 17.82
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.2% 100.00
clinton -3.12 6.4% 100.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.2% 95.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.0% 90.00
974david -2.72 5.6% 99.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 4.9% 90.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.6% 83.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.3% 95.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.3% 100.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 3.9% 80.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.7% 93.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 94.00
madre -1.75 3.6% 99.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.6% 100.00
dkc -1.63 3.3% 87.00
Travist -1.63 3.3% 100.00
austerity -1.60 3.3% 63.00
CR -1.59 3.3% 100.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.2% 98.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 95.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.2% 90.00
Rebel ran riot -1.50 3.1% 99.00
Excluded
banda311 -1.65 15.00
IFP63. VW
Branch Yes
Current 11 Update 15 Diff 4
Outliers 65, 99 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 22.91
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
madre -1.21 6.8% 10.00
wlmsears -1.12 6.3% 20.00
dada -1.06 6.0% 18.00
BlackJackBones -1.02 5.7% 57.00
Raisinville -1.01 5.7% 5.00
Rebel ran riot -1.00 5.6% 0.00
Falconer -0.98 5.5% 0.00
aaseawaf15 -0.93 5.2% 20.00
Ossipon -0.82 4.6% 2.00
JP -0.82 4.6% 2.00
malcmur -0.78 4.4% 15.00
hyperionok -0.78 4.4% 35.00
GeneH -0.73 4.1% 5.00
Anneinak -0.71 4.0% 11.00
cdob63 -0.66 3.7% 18.00
petth -0.64 3.6% 10.00
Heffalump -0.62 3.5% 15.00
clinton -0.62 3.5% 5.00
cmeinel -0.60 3.4% 15.00
austerity -0.58 3.2% 32.00
000 -0.55 3.1% 11.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.1% 15.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 99.00
jeremylichtman -1.06 65.00
IFP64. Putin Abe
Branch Yes
Current 19 Update 18 Diff -1
Outliers 75, 100 Median 20.00 Standard Deviation 26.65
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.6% 5.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.8% 25.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.5% 30.00
clinton -2.88 6.5% 7.00
Wagle -2.66 6.0% 20.00
974david -2.44 5.5% 45.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.0% 33.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.9% 29.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.4% 20.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.3% 5.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.1% 25.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.1% 20.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.1% 10.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.9% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 3.9% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.5% 5.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.5% 60.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.4% 1.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.4% 20.00
jkbick -1.49 3.4% 5.00
Manfred -1.49 3.4% 0.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
Travist -1.56 75.00
Amir -1.47 75.00
IFP66. RCEP
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 15 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 3.08
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 9.9% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.3% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.3% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 5.9% 0.00
974david -2.88 5.8% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 5.7% 3.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.2% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 0.00
hyperionok -1.95 3.9% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 3.8% 2.00
einsteinjs -1.82 3.7% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.6% 0.00
madre -1.79 3.6% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.76 3.5% 0.00
malcmur -1.68 3.4% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.68 3.4% 0.00
dada -1.65 3.3% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.3% 3.00
austerity -1.60 3.2% 0.00
jkbick -1.53 3.1% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 3.0% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.0% 3.00
Excluded
TVANKSTA -1.50 15.00
IFP70. NATO 4
Branch Yes
Current 49 Update 50 Diff 1
Outliers Median 50.00 Standard Deviation 27.02
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 8.7% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.2% 65.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 5.9% 50.00
clinton -2.88 5.9% 51.00
Wagle -2.66 5.4% 35.00
974david -2.44 5.0% 85.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.5% 20.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.5% 41.00
slobodan -2.02 4.1% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.0% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 3.9% 20.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.7% 17.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.7% 50.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.5% 50.00
dkc -1.61 3.3% 90.00
Travist -1.56 3.2% 90.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.2% 66.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.2% 35.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.1% 25.00
jkbick -1.49 3.1% 75.00
Manfred -1.49 3.1% 100.00
Amir -1.47 3.0% 33.00
malcmur -1.43 2.9% 45.00
austerity -1.40 2.9% 65.00
IFP72. Iran Implementation Day
Branch Yes
Current 90 Update 72 Diff -18
Outliers 0, 10, 5 Median 77.50 Standard Deviation 33.48
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -3.12 7.3% 97.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 7.1% 75.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.8% 80.00
Wagle -2.66 6.2% 20.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 5.5% 33.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 5.2% 41.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.9% 20.00
einsteinjs -2.10 4.9% 100.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.8% 80.00
slobodan -2.02 4.7% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 4.4% 75.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.2% 95.00
madre -1.75 4.1% 95.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.0% 100.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.9% 80.00
dkc -1.63 3.8% 95.00
austerity -1.60 3.7% 90.00
hyperionok -1.57 3.7% 45.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.6% 85.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.6% 75.00
donmars -1.51 3.5% 40.00
Excluded
Falconer -4.46 0.00
ed3 -1.64 5.00
Travist -1.63 10.00
IFP73. East China Sea brawl
Branch Yes
Current 12 Update 17 Diff 5
Outliers 100 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 22.41
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.1% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.4% 10.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.1% 15.00
clinton -2.88 6.1% 6.00
Wagle -2.66 5.6% 20.00
974david -2.44 5.2% 25.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 4.7% 50.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 4.7% 59.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.1% 20.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.1% 20.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.9% 5.00
cmeinel -1.81 3.8% 13.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.7% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 3.6% 20.00
dkc -1.61 3.4% 5.00
Travist -1.56 3.3% 10.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.3% 5.00
hyperionok -1.54 3.3% 20.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.2% 25.00
jkbick -1.49 3.2% 15.00
Manfred -1.49 3.2% 10.00
Amir -1.47 3.1% 53.00
malcmur -1.43 3.0% 11.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
IFP74. PA Israel halt
Branch Yes
Current 13 Update 14 Diff 1
Outliers 40, 45 Median 12.50 Standard Deviation 12.91
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 11.0% 0.00
clinton -2.88 7.4% 8.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.7% 33.00
slobodan -2.02 5.2% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.0% 10.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.9% 30.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.7% 9.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.6% 13.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.5% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 4.4% 35.00
dkc -1.61 4.1% 30.00
Travist -1.56 4.0% 10.00
hyperionok -1.54 4.0% 35.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.9% 15.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.9% 25.00
malcmur -1.43 3.7% 12.00
madre -1.36 3.5% 10.00
Khalid -1.34 3.4% 10.00
mparrault -1.32 3.4% 16.00
RF -1.20 3.1% 10.00
dada -1.12 2.9% 8.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.7% 20.00
Excluded
Jean-Pierre -2.89 40.00
mariush -1.31 45.00
IFP75. Montenegro Djukanovic resign
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 50 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 9.95
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 9.8% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.8% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.6% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6.4% 0.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.6% 1.00
einsteinjs -2.10 4.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.5% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.4% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.0% 2.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 2.00
madre -1.75 3.8% 0.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.8% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.6% 0.00
dkc -1.63 3.6% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.4% 0.00
jkbick -1.49 3.3% 0.00
dada -1.48 3.2% 0.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.2% 0.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.1% 0.00
malcmur -1.43 3.1% 1.00
mparrault -1.41 3.1% 1.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 50.00
IFP76. NK nuke test
Branch Yes
Current 57 Update 58 Diff 1
Outliers 17, 100 Median 59.00 Standard Deviation 18.88
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.5% 30.00
clinton -2.88 7.5% 58.00
974david -2.44 6.4% 50.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.8% 51.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.7% 41.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.1% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 5.0% 40.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.8% 75.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.7% 52.00
Travist -1.56 4.1% 60.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.1% 95.00
hyperionok -1.54 4.0% 80.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.0% 85.00
scholarandcat -1.52 4.0% 55.00
malcmur -1.43 3.7% 45.00
austerity -1.40 3.7% 65.00
madre -1.36 3.5% 65.00
mparrault -1.32 3.5% 54.00
mariush -1.31 3.4% 67.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.2% 77.00
RF -1.20 3.1% 60.00
boz -1.19 3.1% 53.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
christianmaas -1.83 17.00
IFP77. NATO 4 or 5
Branch Yes, only Article 5
Current 7 Update 6 Diff -1
Outliers 41 Median 7.50 Standard Deviation 8.26
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.9% 10.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.6% 2.00
974david -2.44 6.4% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.8% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.3% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.1% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.8% 7.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.7% 9.00
dkc -1.61 4.2% 10.00
Travist -1.56 4.1% 15.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.1% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.0% 6.00
jkbick -1.49 3.9% 5.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.8% 2.00
malcmur -1.43 3.8% 8.00
madre -1.36 3.6% 10.00
mparrault -1.32 3.5% 5.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.2% 0.00
RF -1.20 3.2% 0.00
dada -1.12 2.9% 9.00
redacted -1.09 2.9% 9.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.8% 10.00
Antacular -1.03 2.7% 10.00
Excluded
Mroochyslav -2.20 41.00
Branch Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5
Current 5 Update 6 Diff 1
Outliers 75, 100 Median 5.00 Standard Deviation 23.58
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.1% 10.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.8% 2.00
974david -2.44 6.6% 15.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.9% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.9% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.2% 0.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.9% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.9% 5.00
dkc -1.61 4.3% 10.00
Travist -1.56 4.2% 25.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.2% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.1% 3.00
jkbick -1.49 4.0% 5.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.9% 1.00
malcmur -1.43 3.9% 5.00
madre -1.36 3.7% 10.00
mparrault -1.32 3.6% 5.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.3% 0.00
dada -1.12 3.0% 0.00
redacted -1.09 2.9% 1.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.9% 5.00
Antacular -1.03 2.8% 5.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
RF -1.20 75.00
Branch Yes, only Article 4
Current 18 Update 16 Diff -2
Outliers 49, 50 Median 17.00 Standard Deviation 15.55
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.7% 15.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 8.3% 6.00
974david -2.44 7.0% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 6.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 5.8% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.6% 40.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.2% 10.00
dkc -1.61 4.6% 20.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.5% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.4% 16.00
jkbick -1.49 4.3% 15.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 4.1% 20.00
malcmur -1.43 4.1% 25.00
madre -1.36 3.9% 35.00
mparrault -1.32 3.8% 18.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.5% 30.00
RF -1.20 3.5% 25.00
dada -1.12 3.2% 9.00
redacted -1.09 3.1% 9.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.1% 10.00
Antacular -1.03 3.0% 40.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 50.00
christianmaas -1.83 49.00
Travist -1.56 50.00
Branch No
Current 70 Update 72 Diff 2
Outliers 0, 10 Median 67.50 Standard Deviation 24.86
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.5% 65.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 8.1% 90.00
974david -2.44 6.9% 85.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 6.2% 40.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 6.2% 59.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.4% 60.00
christianmaas -1.83 5.1% 44.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.1% 76.00
dkc -1.61 4.5% 60.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.4% 70.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.3% 75.00
jkbick -1.49 4.2% 75.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 4.1% 77.00
malcmur -1.43 4.0% 62.00
madre -1.36 3.8% 45.00
mparrault -1.32 3.7% 72.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.4% 70.00
dada -1.12 3.2% 82.00
redacted -1.09 3.1% 81.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.0% 75.00
Antacular -1.03 2.9% 45.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 0.00
Travist -1.56 10.00
RF -1.20 0.00
IFP78. Panama Canal
Branch Yes
Current 0 Update 19 Diff 19
Outliers 100 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 30.95
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.9% 1.00
clinton -3.12 6.9% 2.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.5% 25.00
974david -2.88 6.4% 65.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.2% 20.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.3% 41.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.7% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.2% 58.00
GeneH -1.83 4.1% 1.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 19.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 15.00
madre -1.79 4.0% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.9% 1.00
lsgold7 -1.68 3.7% 10.00
malcmur -1.68 3.7% 25.00
dada -1.65 3.7% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 75.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 20.00
jkbick -1.53 3.4% 5.00
TVANKSTA -1.50 3.3% 15.00
Manfred -1.49 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 100.00
IFP79. Putin Nuke Summit
Branch Yes
Current 6 Update 13 Diff 7
Outliers 75, 100, 85 Median 9.50 Standard Deviation 29.18
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 10.3% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.2% 5.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.0% 10.00
clinton -2.88 6.9% 9.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.3% 20.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.3% 59.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.7% 0.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.6% 30.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.4% 5.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.2% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 4.1% 5.00
dkc -1.61 3.9% 2.00
Travist -1.56 3.8% 5.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.8% 33.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.7% 1.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.7% 10.00
Manfred -1.49 3.6% 0.00
Amir -1.47 3.5% 55.00
malcmur -1.43 3.4% 15.00
austerity -1.40 3.4% 27.00
madre -1.36 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
974david -2.44 85.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 75.00
IFP80. Brexit
Branch Yes
Current 61 Update 48 Diff -13
Outliers Median 55.00 Standard Deviation 34.63
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 8.8% 0.00
clinton -3.12 6.2% 90.00
fifty-sixty -3.04 6.0% 66.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 5.8% 70.00
974david -2.72 5.4% 50.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 4.7% 90.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 4.5% 67.00
Raisinville -2.11 4.2% 0.00
einsteinjs -2.10 4.2% 80.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.1% 15.00
slobodan -2.02 4.0% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 3.8% 25.00
christianmaas -1.83 3.6% 49.00
madre -1.75 3.5% 78.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 3.4% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.66 3.3% 60.00
dkc -1.63 3.2% 95.00
Travist -1.63 3.2% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.2% 70.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.1% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.1% 75.00
donmars -1.51 3.0% 12.00
Manfred -1.49 3.0% 0.00
dada -1.48 2.9% 45.00
IFP81. GOP nominee
Branch Jeb Bush
Current 13 Update 15 Diff 2
Outliers 75, 99, 70 Median 9.50 Standard Deviation 26.42
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.9% 10.00
Raisinville -2.08 7.4% 46.00
dada -1.90 6.8% 5.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.6% 1.00
madre -1.56 5.6% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 5.2% 32.00
Anneinak -1.44 5.1% 11.00
einsteinjs -1.42 5.0% 5.00
slobodan -1.35 4.8% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.4% 5.00
nls -1.15 4.1% 27.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.8% 0.00
boz -1.06 3.8% 9.00
Khalid -1.06 3.8% 20.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.7% 2.00
GeneH -1.04 3.7% 15.00
clinton -1.04 3.7% 2.00
Dima K -1.04 3.7% 0.00
austerity -1.03 3.7% 10.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.6% 0.00
974david -0.99 3.5% 15.00
Excluded
Rebel ran riot -1.42 99.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 75.00
admiralporky -0.99 70.00
Branch Donald Trump
Current 13 Update 21 Diff 8
Outliers 67, 100 Median 15.00 Standard Deviation 25.85
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.6% 0.00
Raisinville -2.08 7.1% 2.00
dada -1.90 6.5% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.4% 59.00
madre -1.56 5.3% 20.00
malcmur -1.47 5.0% 4.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.9% 23.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.9% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.8% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.2% 15.00
nls -1.15 3.9% 1.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.9% 25.00
boz -1.06 3.6% 16.00
Khalid -1.06 3.6% 5.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.6% 8.00
GeneH -1.04 3.6% 15.00
clinton -1.04 3.6% 51.00
Dima K -1.04 3.6% 55.00
austerity -1.03 3.5% 30.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.5% 5.00
974david -0.99 3.4% 30.00
admiralporky -0.99 3.4% 0.00
Excluded
slobodan -1.35 100.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 67.00
Branch Marco Rubio
Current 40 Update 33 Diff -7
Outliers 80, 75 Median 24.00 Standard Deviation 25.47
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 7.6% 10.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.8% 11.00
madre -1.56 5.7% 5.00
malcmur -1.47 5.4% 36.00
Anneinak -1.44 5.3% 23.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 5.2% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 5.2% 70.00
slobodan -1.35 5.0% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.5% 60.00
nls -1.15 4.2% 22.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 4.2% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.9% 4.00
boz -1.06 3.9% 27.00
Khalid -1.06 3.9% 50.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.9% 35.00
GeneH -1.04 3.8% 30.00
clinton -1.04 3.8% 37.00
Dima K -1.04 3.8% 14.00
austerity -1.03 3.8% 10.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.7% 70.00
974david -0.99 3.6% 25.00
admiralporky -0.99 3.6% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 80.00
dada -1.90 75.00
Branch Carly Fiorina
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 20 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 3.99
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.2% 0.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.8% 0.00
dada -1.90 6.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.1% 0.00
madre -1.56 5.1% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 4.8% 1.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.7% 0.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.6% 0.00
slobodan -1.35 4.4% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.0% 0.00
nls -1.15 3.8% 0.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.8% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.5% 0.00
boz -1.06 3.5% 1.00
Khalid -1.06 3.4% 0.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.04 3.4% 0.00
clinton -1.04 3.4% 0.00
Dima K -1.04 3.4% 0.00
austerity -1.03 3.3% 0.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.3% 0.00
974david -0.99 3.2% 0.00
Excluded
admiralporky -0.99 20.00
Branch Ben Carson
Current 0 Update 3 Diff 3
Outliers 30 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 6.44
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.2% 10.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.8% 0.00
dada -1.90 6.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.1% 0.00
madre -1.56 5.1% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 4.8% 3.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.7% 11.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.6% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.6% 0.00
slobodan -1.35 4.4% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.0% 5.00
nls -1.15 3.8% 1.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.8% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.5% 0.00
boz -1.06 3.5% 1.00
Khalid -1.06 3.4% 0.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.04 3.4% 0.00
clinton -1.04 3.4% 0.00
Dima K -1.04 3.4% 1.00
austerity -1.03 3.4% 0.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.3% 0.00
admiralporky -0.99 3.2% 5.00
Excluded
974david -0.99 30.00
Branch None of the above
Current 2 Update 4 Diff 2
Outliers 37 Median 0.50 Standard Deviation 8.31
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.5% 0.00
dada -1.90 6.4% 0.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.3% 0.00
madre -1.56 5.3% 0.00
malcmur -1.47 5.0% 5.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.9% 9.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.8% 1.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.8% 4.00
slobodan -1.35 4.6% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.1% 0.00
nls -1.15 3.9% 5.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.9% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.6% 0.00
boz -1.06 3.6% 17.00
Khalid -1.06 3.6% 0.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.6% 15.00
GeneH -1.04 3.5% 0.00
clinton -1.04 3.5% 0.00
Dima K -1.04 3.5% 1.00
austerity -1.03 3.5% 10.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.4% 9.00
974david -0.99 3.4% 0.00
admiralporky -0.99 3.4% 5.00
Excluded
Raisinville -2.08 37.00
Branch Ted Cruz
Current 32 Update 24 Diff -8
Outliers 75 Median 20.50 Standard Deviation 18.13
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.50 8.3% 0.00
Raisinville -2.08 6.9% 5.00
dada -1.90 6.3% 20.00
Mroochyslav -1.58 5.2% 29.00
malcmur -1.47 4.9% 19.00
Anneinak -1.44 4.8% 23.00
Rebel ran riot -1.42 4.7% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.42 4.7% 21.00
slobodan -1.35 4.5% 0.00
wlmsears -1.23 4.1% 15.00
nls -1.15 3.8% 44.00
TVANKSTA -1.15 3.8% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -1.07 3.6% 29.00
boz -1.06 3.5% 29.00
Khalid -1.06 3.5% 25.00
Ossipon -1.05 3.5% 40.00
GeneH -1.04 3.5% 40.00
clinton -1.04 3.5% 10.00
Dima K -1.04 3.5% 29.00
austerity -1.03 3.4% 40.00
FuturoMAGE -1.01 3.4% 16.00
974david -0.99 3.3% 0.00
admiralporky -0.99 3.3% 0.00
Excluded
madre -1.56 75.00
IFP84. Turkey controls
Branch Yes
Current 39 Update 37 Diff -2
Outliers 99, 100 Median 39.50 Standard Deviation 25.90
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.94 8.7% 45.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 8.4% 10.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 6.2% 30.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.7% 38.00
GeneH -1.83 5.4% 25.00
madre -1.79 5.3% 65.00
dkc -1.77 5.3% 50.00
lsgold7 -1.68 5.0% 70.00
malcmur -1.68 5.0% 41.00
dada -1.65 4.9% 45.00
jkbick -1.53 4.5% 65.00
mparrault -1.40 4.2% 30.00
RF -1.33 3.9% 60.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.5% 0.00
boz -1.19 3.5% 50.00
JP -1.13 3.4% 20.00
Antacular -1.07 3.2% 50.00
Heffalump -1.04 3.1% 35.00
CT Runner -0.93 2.8% 30.00
Guydreaux -0.92 2.7% 18.00
ravel -0.92 2.7% 0.00
nls -0.90 2.7% 15.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 99.00
IFP85. Afghani MOD
Branch Yes
Current 50 Update 46 Diff -4
Outliers Median 48.00 Standard Deviation 28.74
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 8.0% 55.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.5% 69.00
einsteinjs -2.10 5.7% 2.00
slobodan -2.02 5.5% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 5.2% 15.00
christianmaas -1.83 5.0% 69.00
madre -1.75 4.8% 55.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.7% 0.00
Travist -1.63 4.5% 0.00
austerity -1.60 4.4% 40.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.3% 25.00
dada -1.48 4.0% 69.00
malcmur -1.43 3.9% 21.00
mparrault -1.41 3.9% 55.00
Khalid -1.38 3.8% 65.00
Dima K -1.22 3.3% 75.00
RF -1.20 3.3% 40.00
nls -1.15 3.1% 40.00
Antacular -1.09 3.0% 82.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.9% 85.00
Heffalump -1.05 2.9% 41.00
CT Runner -0.93 2.5% 70.00
ravel -0.92 2.5% 0.00
Marius -0.87 2.4% 40.00
IFP86. ASEAN China
Branch Yes
Current 80 Update 82 Diff 2
Outliers 45 Median 80.00 Standard Deviation 13.89
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 9.9% 92.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 6.9% 75.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.7% 90.00
clinton -2.88 6.6% 90.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.1% 75.00
slobodan -2.02 4.7% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.5% 80.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.4% 55.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.2% 75.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.2% 82.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.0% 100.00
dkc -1.61 3.7% 100.00
Travist -1.56 3.6% 55.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.6% 75.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.5% 86.00
jkbick -1.49 3.4% 75.00
austerity -1.40 3.2% 80.00
madre -1.36 3.1% 95.00
Khalid -1.34 3.1% 85.00
mparrault -1.32 3.1% 80.00
lindsey -1.27 2.9% 80.00
RF -1.20 2.8% 80.00
boz -1.19 2.7% 66.00
Excluded
malcmur -1.43 45.00
IFP87. IMF
Branch Christine Lagarde will serve a second term
Current 93 Update 71 Diff -22
Outliers 10, 4 Median 76.50 Standard Deviation 28.64
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.7% 70.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.4% 40.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.6% 59.00
slobodan -2.02 5.2% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.0% 78.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.9% 75.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.7% 87.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.7% 98.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.6% 30.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.5% 100.00
GeneH -1.72 4.4% 30.00
dkc -1.61 4.1% 98.00
Travist -1.56 4.0% 95.00
lsgold7 -1.56 4.0% 80.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.9% 98.00
jkbick -1.49 3.8% 55.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.7% 90.00
malcmur -1.43 3.7% 90.00
austerity -1.40 3.6% 50.00
madre -1.36 3.5% 90.00
Khalid -1.34 3.4% 50.00
mparrault -1.32 3.4% 60.00
Excluded
clinton -2.88 4.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 10.00
Branch Someone from outside Europe
Current 4 Update 21 Diff 17
Outliers 80 Median 12.50 Standard Deviation 22.20
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.2% 5.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.9% 50.00
clinton -2.88 6.9% 48.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.3% 41.00
slobodan -2.02 4.8% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.6% 12.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.6% 20.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.4% 13.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.4% 1.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.3% 45.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.1% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 4.1% 55.00
dkc -1.61 3.9% 2.00
Travist -1.56 3.7% 0.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.7% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.6% 1.00
jkbick -1.49 3.6% 45.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.4% 5.00
malcmur -1.43 3.4% 7.00
austerity -1.40 3.4% 25.00
madre -1.36 3.2% 5.00
Khalid -1.34 3.2% 40.00
mparrault -1.32 3.2% 20.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 80.00
Branch Someone else from Europe
Current 3 Update 8 Diff 5
Outliers 48 Median 5.00 Standard Deviation 11.46
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.3% 25.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 7.0% 10.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.4% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.3% 0.00
slobodan -2.02 4.9% 0.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.7% 10.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.7% 5.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.4% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.4% 1.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.4% 25.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.2% 0.00
GeneH -1.72 4.2% 15.00
dkc -1.61 3.9% 0.00
Travist -1.56 3.8% 5.00
lsgold7 -1.56 3.8% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.7% 1.00
jkbick -1.49 3.6% 0.00
FuturoMAGE -1.44 3.5% 5.00
malcmur -1.43 3.5% 3.00
austerity -1.40 3.4% 25.00
madre -1.36 3.3% 5.00
Khalid -1.34 3.3% 10.00
mparrault -1.32 3.2% 20.00
Excluded
clinton -2.88 48.00
IFP88. Superbowl
Branch A team from the American Football Conference
Current 50 Update 43 Diff -7
Outliers 0 Median 49.00 Standard Deviation 17.59
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.5% 40.00
Delorean -1.44 8.9% 25.00
einsteinjs -1.14 7.0% 20.00
dada -1.06 6.6% 21.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.2% 50.00
malcmur -0.78 4.8% 55.00
GeneH -0.73 4.5% 55.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.1% 48.00
petth -0.64 3.9% 25.00
clinton -0.62 3.8% 50.00
austerity -0.58 3.6% 40.00
darius.hinton -0.57 3.6% 35.00
tomh -0.57 3.5% 65.00
Tom L -0.56 3.5% 50.00
000 -0.55 3.4% 50.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.4% 62.00
15 -0.54 3.4% 75.00
cebjs -0.50 3.1% 55.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 65.00
JMODE -0.44 2.7% 40.00
kevkevkev -0.43 2.7% 66.00
Gor999 -0.42 2.6% 25.00
Rote -0.39 2.4% 45.00
Excluded
slobodan -0.54 0.00
Branch A team from the National Football Conference
Current 50 Update 57 Diff 7
Outliers 100 Median 51.00 Standard Deviation 17.59
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 9.5% 60.00
Delorean -1.44 8.9% 75.00
einsteinjs -1.14 7.0% 80.00
dada -1.06 6.6% 79.00
Raisinville -1.01 6.2% 50.00
malcmur -0.78 4.8% 45.00
GeneH -0.73 4.5% 45.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.1% 52.00
petth -0.64 3.9% 75.00
clinton -0.62 3.8% 50.00
austerity -0.58 3.6% 60.00
darius.hinton -0.57 3.6% 65.00
tomh -0.57 3.5% 35.00
Tom L -0.56 3.5% 50.00
000 -0.55 3.4% 50.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.4% 38.00
15 -0.54 3.4% 25.00
cebjs -0.50 3.1% 45.00
scholarandcat -0.46 2.8% 35.00
JMODE -0.44 2.7% 60.00
kevkevkev -0.43 2.7% 34.00
Gor999 -0.42 2.6% 75.00
Rote -0.39 2.4% 55.00
Excluded
slobodan -0.54 100.00
IFP89. Iran Competitiveness
Branch Above 75
Current 7 Update 12 Diff 5
Outliers 69, 45 Median 10.00 Standard Deviation 16.78
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 9.3% 5.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 7.2% 29.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 6.2% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.7% 10.00
GeneH -1.83 5.4% 10.00
einsteinjs -1.82 5.4% 0.00
madre -1.79 5.3% 15.00
dkc -1.77 5.3% 5.00
scholarandcat -1.68 5.0% 10.00
dada -1.65 4.9% 19.00
Khalid -1.47 4.4% 5.00
mparrault -1.40 4.2% 16.00
donmars -1.23 3.6% 2.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.5% 0.00
boz -1.19 3.5% 34.00
petth -1.16 3.4% 5.00
JP -1.13 3.4% 25.00
redacted -1.09 3.2% 1.00
RCScheffers -0.99 2.9% 25.00
taxesa1 -0.97 2.9% 8.00
ravel -0.92 2.7% 11.00
nls -0.90 2.7% 40.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 69.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 45.00
Branch Between 61 and 75, inclusive
Current 69 Update 68 Diff -1
Outliers 20 Median 65.50 Standard Deviation 16.52
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 8.9% 70.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 6.8% 71.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.9% 50.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.4% 75.00
GeneH -1.83 5.2% 75.00
einsteinjs -1.82 5.2% 51.00
madre -1.79 5.1% 62.00
dkc -1.77 5.0% 70.00
scholarandcat -1.68 4.8% 69.00
dada -1.65 4.7% 71.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 4.4% 50.00
Khalid -1.47 4.2% 55.00
mparrault -1.40 4.0% 42.00
donmars -1.23 3.5% 56.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.4% 80.00
boz -1.19 3.4% 42.00
petth -1.16 3.3% 80.00
JP -1.13 3.2% 70.00
redacted -1.09 3.1% 98.00
RCScheffers -0.99 2.8% 50.00
taxesa1 -0.97 2.7% 58.00
ravel -0.92 2.6% 81.00
nls -0.90 2.6% 45.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 20.00
Branch In the top 50
Current 2 Update 2 Diff 0
Outliers 16 Median 1.00 Standard Deviation 3.47
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 8.5% 5.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 7.7% 1.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 6.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.7% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.2% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 5.0% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 5.0% 5.00
madre -1.79 4.9% 2.00
dkc -1.77 4.8% 0.00
scholarandcat -1.68 4.6% 1.00
dada -1.65 4.5% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 4.2% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 4.0% 5.00
donmars -1.23 3.3% 3.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.2% 5.00
boz -1.19 3.2% 3.00
petth -1.16 3.2% 0.00
JP -1.13 3.1% 0.00
redacted -1.09 3.0% 0.00
RCScheffers -0.99 2.7% 5.00
taxesa1 -0.97 2.6% 2.00
ravel -0.92 2.5% 0.00
nls -0.90 2.5% 1.00
Excluded
mparrault -1.40 16.00
Branch Between 51 and 60, inclusive
Current 22 Update 17 Diff -5
Outliers 50, 44 Median 17.50 Standard Deviation 12.83
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.12 9.1% 20.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 8.2% 10.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 7.1% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 5.6% 15.00
GeneH -1.83 5.4% 15.00
madre -1.79 5.2% 21.00
dkc -1.77 5.2% 25.00
scholarandcat -1.68 4.9% 20.00
dada -1.65 4.8% 10.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 4.6% 5.00
Khalid -1.47 4.3% 35.00
mparrault -1.40 4.1% 26.00
donmars -1.23 3.6% 39.00
deannebridget -1.19 3.5% 15.00
boz -1.19 3.5% 21.00
petth -1.16 3.4% 15.00
JP -1.13 3.3% 5.00
redacted -1.09 3.2% 1.00
RCScheffers -0.99 2.9% 20.00
taxesa1 -0.97 2.8% 32.00
ravel -0.92 2.7% 8.00
nls -0.90 2.6% 14.00
Excluded
Clairvoyance -2.08 50.00
einsteinjs -1.82 44.00
IFP90. Akkuyu Suspension
Branch Yes
Current 71 Update 65 Diff -6
Outliers Median 61.50 Standard Deviation 28.29
Forecasters 24 Included 24 Excluded 0
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 10.7% 100.00
clinton -2.88 7.2% 21.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.5% 90.00
slobodan -2.02 5.0% 100.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.8% 80.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.6% 87.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.5% 58.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.3% 100.00
GeneH -1.72 4.3% 50.00
dkc -1.61 4.0% 50.00
Travist -1.56 3.9% 90.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.8% 5.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.8% 28.00
jkbick -1.49 3.7% 70.00
austerity -1.40 3.5% 65.00
madre -1.36 3.4% 50.00
mparrault -1.32 3.3% 54.00
lindsey -1.27 3.2% 90.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.0% 88.00
dada -1.12 2.8% 25.00
redacted -1.09 2.7% 27.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.7% 80.00
Antacular -1.03 2.6% 34.00
donmars -0.99 2.5% 39.00
IFP93. BRIC Growth
Branch Four
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 1 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 0.28
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 11.4% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.3% 0.00
clinton -3.12 7.3% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.6% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.6% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.9% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.5% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 4.3% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.2% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.2% 0.00
dkc -1.77 4.1% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.8% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.7% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.6% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 3.4% 0.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.4% 0.00
Dima K -1.40 3.3% 0.00
RF -1.33 3.1% 0.00
JJMLP -1.29 3.0% 0.00
deannebridget -1.19 2.8% 0.00
boz -1.19 2.8% 0.00
JP -1.13 2.6% 0.00
Excluded
Jean-Pierre -2.94 1.00
mparrault -1.40 1.00
Branch None
Current 0 Update 0 Diff 0
Outliers 61 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 12.18
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 10.9% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.0% 0.00
clinton -3.12 7.0% 0.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.6% 0.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.3% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.3% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 4.1% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.1% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 0.00
dkc -1.77 4.0% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 0.00
austerity -1.60 3.6% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.5% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 3.3% 0.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.3% 0.00
mparrault -1.40 3.1% 0.00
Dima K -1.40 3.1% 0.00
RF -1.33 3.0% 0.00
JJMLP -1.29 2.9% 0.00
deannebridget -1.19 2.7% 0.00
boz -1.19 2.7% 1.00
JP -1.13 2.5% 0.00
Excluded
Mroochyslav -2.41 61.00
Branch Two
Current 96 Update 92 Diff -4
Outliers 0, 8 Median 94.50 Standard Deviation 31.98
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 12.1% 100.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.7% 95.00
clinton -3.12 7.7% 98.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 7.3% 80.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.1% 85.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.7% 90.00
GeneH -1.83 4.5% 100.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.5% 100.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.5% 100.00
dkc -1.77 4.4% 95.00
Travist -1.63 4.0% 80.00
austerity -1.60 3.9% 100.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.8% 35.00
Khalid -1.47 3.6% 95.00
mparrault -1.40 3.5% 94.00
Dima K -1.40 3.5% 99.00
RF -1.33 3.3% 85.00
JJMLP -1.29 3.2% 80.00
deannebridget -1.19 2.9% 100.00
boz -1.19 2.9% 86.00
JP -1.13 2.8% 100.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 8.00
Anneinak -1.46 0.00
Branch Three
Current 3 Update 4 Diff 1
Outliers 60 Median 2.50 Standard Deviation 12.38
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 10.7% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 6.8% 5.00
clinton -3.12 6.8% 1.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.5% 18.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 6.2% 0.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.3% 0.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.6% 15.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.2% 10.00
GeneH -1.83 4.0% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.0% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.0% 0.00
dkc -1.77 3.9% 5.00
Travist -1.63 3.6% 5.00
austerity -1.60 3.5% 0.00
Khalid -1.47 3.2% 5.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.2% 0.00
mparrault -1.40 3.1% 4.00
Dima K -1.40 3.1% 0.00
RF -1.33 2.9% 15.00
JJMLP -1.29 2.8% 10.00
deannebridget -1.19 2.6% 0.00
boz -1.19 2.6% 9.00
JP -1.13 2.5% 0.00
Excluded
jeremylichtman -1.56 60.00
Branch One
Current 1 Update 3 Diff 2
Outliers 100 Median 0.00 Standard Deviation 27.63
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.90 11.4% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.12 7.3% 0.00
clinton -3.12 7.3% 1.00
Jean-Pierre -2.94 6.9% 1.00
Mroochyslav -2.41 5.6% 31.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 4.9% 0.00
christianmaas -1.91 4.4% 0.00
GeneH -1.83 4.3% 0.00
einsteinjs -1.82 4.2% 0.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.2% 0.00
dkc -1.77 4.1% 0.00
Travist -1.63 3.8% 15.00
austerity -1.60 3.7% 0.00
jeremylichtman -1.56 3.6% 5.00
Khalid -1.47 3.4% 0.00
mparrault -1.40 3.3% 1.00
Dima K -1.40 3.3% 1.00
RF -1.33 3.1% 0.00
JJMLP -1.29 3.0% 10.00
deannebridget -1.19 2.8% 0.00
boz -1.19 2.8% 4.00
JP -1.13 2.6% 0.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.81 100.00
Anneinak -1.46 100.00
IFP94. TIME off stand
Branch Yes
Current 15 Update 23 Diff 8
Outliers 80, 85 Median 18.00 Standard Deviation 24.71
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.54 10.5% 65.00
Delorean -1.44 9.8% 1.00
einsteinjs -1.14 7.7% 1.00
BlackJackBones -1.02 6.9% 17.00
Ossipon -0.82 5.6% 35.00
JP -0.82 5.6% 10.00
Anneinak -0.71 4.8% 11.00
cdob63 -0.66 4.5% 23.00
petth -0.64 4.3% 60.00
GJDrew -0.63 4.3% 30.00
clinton -0.62 4.2% 60.00
lindsey91 -0.55 3.8% 28.00
000 -0.55 3.7% 15.00
Clairvoyance -0.54 3.7% 15.00
slobodan -0.54 3.7% 0.00
klin -0.45 3.1% 8.00
JMODE -0.44 3.0% 10.00
dowser -0.37 2.5% 35.00
sonac36 -0.37 2.5% 10.00
ravel -0.36 2.5% 19.00
Spandrelbarca -0.27 1.9% 2.00
mparrault -0.19 1.3% 35.00
Excluded
ckruger -0.35 85.00
Censusguyz -0.25 80.00
IFP95. NLD President Myanmar
Branch Yes
Current 90 Update 92 Diff 2
Outliers 65, 66 Median 90.00 Standard Deviation 10.24
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 10.8% 100.00
clinton -3.12 7.5% 98.00
Jean-Pierre -2.93 7.1% 95.00
Mroochyslav -2.25 5.4% 83.00
Clairvoyance -2.08 5.0% 90.00
slobodan -2.02 4.9% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 4.6% 75.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.4% 85.00
cmeinel -1.81 4.4% 86.00
k13rkeg44rd -1.73 4.2% 100.00
scholarandcat -1.66 4.0% 96.00
dkc -1.63 3.9% 95.00
Travist -1.63 3.9% 80.00
austerity -1.60 3.9% 99.00
jkbick -1.49 3.6% 90.00
dada -1.48 3.6% 95.00
Anneinak -1.46 3.5% 77.00
mparrault -1.41 3.4% 80.00
Khalid -1.38 3.3% 95.00
lindsey -1.27 3.1% 90.00
nls -1.15 2.8% 85.00
redacted -1.09 2.6% 99.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 65.00
boz -1.19 66.00
IFP96. Foreign Legion to Syria
Branch Yes
Current 26 Update 31 Diff 5
Outliers 100 Median 38.50 Standard Deviation 27.79
Forecasters 24 Included 23 Excluded 1
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 10.2% 0.00
fifty-sixty -3.01 7.2% 22.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6.9% 5.00
clinton -2.88 6.9% 1.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 5.3% 75.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 5.2% 37.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 4.6% 60.00
Raisinville -1.91 4.6% 55.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.3% 40.00
GeneH -1.72 4.1% 20.00
dkc -1.61 3.8% 60.00
Travist -1.56 3.7% 20.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 3.6% 1.00
scholarandcat -1.52 3.6% 12.00
jkbick -1.49 3.6% 75.00
madre -1.36 3.2% 45.00
mparrault -1.32 3.2% 40.00
Anneinak -1.21 2.9% 66.00
boz -1.19 2.8% 50.00
dada -1.12 2.7% 25.00
redacted -1.09 2.6% 67.00
fatalis -1.07 2.5% 10.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.5% 5.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
IFP97. Cyber Sanctions
Branch Yes
Current 13 Update 29 Diff 16
Outliers 100 Median 27.50 Standard Deviation 30.47
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.27 11.8% 0.00
clinton -2.88 8.0% 58.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 6.1% 80.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.4% 25.00
christianmaas -1.83 5.1% 8.00
einsteinjs -1.82 5.0% 51.00
cmeinel -1.81 5.0% 51.00
GeneH -1.72 4.8% 5.00
dkc -1.61 4.5% 75.00
Travist -1.56 4.3% 5.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.2% 5.00
scholarandcat -1.52 4.2% 36.00
jkbick -1.49 4.1% 15.00
madre -1.36 3.8% 1.00
mparrault -1.32 3.7% 40.00
boz -1.19 3.3% 61.00
redacted -1.09 3.0% 7.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.0% 15.00
Antacular -1.03 2.9% 30.00
donmars -0.99 2.7% 35.00
JP -0.95 2.6% 10.00
ravel -0.92 2.5% 17.00
Excluded
slobodan -2.02 100.00
Lucky -1.01 100.00
IFP98. Montenegro NATO
Branch Yes
Current 38 Update 41 Diff 3
Outliers 100, 85 Median 40.00 Standard Deviation 22.46
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 8.5% 75.00
Jean-Pierre -2.89 8.1% 40.00
Mroochyslav -2.20 6.2% 59.00
Clairvoyance -1.94 5.5% 30.00
christianmaas -1.83 5.1% 35.00
einsteinjs -1.82 5.1% 17.00
GeneH -1.72 4.9% 10.00
dkc -1.61 4.5% 45.00
Travist -1.56 4.4% 40.00
jeremylichtman -1.52 4.3% 37.00
scholarandcat -1.52 4.3% 38.00
jkbick -1.49 4.2% 60.00
austerity -1.40 4.0% 55.00
KSpain -1.40 4.0% 55.00
madre -1.36 3.8% 20.00
mparrault -1.32 3.7% 33.00
lindsey -1.27 3.6% 60.00
Anneinak -1.21 3.4% 44.00
boz -1.19 3.4% 31.00
redacted -1.09 3.1% 1.00
deannebridget -1.07 3.0% 25.00
Antacular -1.03 2.9% 45.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.21 85.00
slobodan -2.02 100.00
IFP99. Iran Majles Conservative
Branch Yes
Current 79 Update 85 Diff 6
Outliers 41, 30 Median 82.50 Standard Deviation 17.69
Forecasters 24 Included 22 Excluded 2
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
Falconer -4.46 12.0% 100.00
clinton -3.12 8.4% 85.00
patrickmeehan5 -2.37 6.3% 88.00
einsteinjs -2.10 5.6% 85.00
slobodan -2.02 5.4% 100.00
GeneH -1.90 5.1% 80.00
christianmaas -1.83 4.9% 88.00
madre -1.75 4.7% 80.00
scholarandcat -1.66 4.5% 78.00
Travist -1.63 4.4% 95.00
donmars -1.51 4.0% 65.00
dada -1.48 4.0% 85.00
mparrault -1.41 3.8% 65.00
KSpain -1.40 3.8% 95.00
Khalid -1.38 3.7% 65.00
nls -1.15 3.1% 60.00
redacted -1.09 2.9% 95.00
Antacular -1.09 2.9% 90.00
deannebridget -1.07 2.9% 70.00
AlexisTocqueville -1.06 2.9% 99.00
ravel -0.92 2.5% 77.00
Censusguyz -0.91 2.4% 65.00
Excluded
Mroochyslav -2.25 41.00
RF -1.20 30.00
IFP100. India ICC Cricket
Branch Yes
Current 19 Update 19 Diff 0
Outliers 50, 60, 46 Median 19.50 Standard Deviation 13.13
Forecasters 24 Included 21 Excluded 3
Forecaster Category Accuracy Weight Forecast
clinton -2.88 13.9% 12.00
christianmaas -1.83 8.8% 19.00
dada -1.37 6.6% 15.00
Khalid -1.35 6.5% 25.00
mparrault -1.34 6.5% 21.00
lindsey -1.27 6.1% 15.00
Dima K -1.22 5.9% 10.00
RF -1.20 5.8% 25.00
redacted -1.09 5.3% 15.00
ravel -1.09 5.3% 19.00
deannebridget -1.07 5.2% 15.00
JP -1.06 5.2% 17.00
Censusguyz -0.66 3.2% 45.00
z0k -0.60 2.9% 20.00
alistaircookie -0.53 2.6% 16.00
000 -0.49 2.4% 19.00
cdob63 -0.41 2.0% 31.00
jimglynn -0.37 1.8% 20.00
kormac -0.33 1.6% 40.00
AJ -0.27 1.3% 18.00
Spandrelbarca -0.23 1.1% 30.00
Excluded
patrickmeehan5 -2.63 50.00
boz -1.19 46.00
azureskai -0.22 60.00
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2 thoughts on “Sunday evening update

  1. Outlier, schmoutlier what is this perfid?.In my day an outlier, was a measurement or transcription error and should properly be removed from the population. So, now we just ignore the tails?

    Like

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