I was right for the last week or so but more bearish than the crowd most of the life of the question.
How often can I be excused by saying “I didn’t have a model for that one?”
I did have a model:
- Obama didn’t want it.
- We just signed a Paris climate control agreement which sort of assumes less oil consumption.
- It is theoretically bad for national security to let oil reserves decline (but so is being broke, and will the reserves decline in fact?)
- We’ve always kept our oil to ourselves, etc.
Nope. It passed.
Final model: Obama’s being nice to the Republicans so they won’t be too unruly when President Sanders comes to power.