Oil export ban


I was right for the last week or so but more bearish than the crowd most of the life of the question.

How often can I be excused by saying “I didn’t have a model for that one?”

I did have a model:

  1. Obama didn’t want it.
  2. We just signed a Paris climate control agreement which sort of assumes less oil consumption.
  3. It is theoretically bad for national security to let oil reserves decline (but so is being broke, and will the reserves decline in fact?)
  4. We’ve always kept our oil to ourselves, etc.

Nope.  It passed.

Final model: Obama’s being nice to the Republicans so they won’t be too unruly when President Sanders comes to power.



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