|Date Ended||Question||Participation Rate||Brier Score||Median Score||Accuracy Score|
|Dec 16, 2015 07:00PM UTC||Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year ?||100.0%||0.059||0.320||-0.260|
What does an Accuracy Score of -0.260 mean? I think a Good Judgment Brier score of 0.059 means that my average prediction was 82.8%. The crowd’s average forecast was 60% exactly. So I was 22.8% above the crowd. Yay!
Note: This was not enough to put me on top 20 of the Leaderboard for Economics. I came in around 70. The people who made top 20 had perfect guesses, stuck with them, and got into the question a little later as well which improved the accuracy scores computed by GJOpen.