I finally got one right

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Dec 16, 2015 07:00PM UTC Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? 100.0% 0.059 0.320 -0.260

What does an Accuracy Score of -0.260 mean?  I think a Good Judgment Brier score of 0.059 means that my average prediction was 82.8%. The crowd’s average forecast was 60% exactly.  So I was 22.8% above the crowd.  Yay!


Note: This was not enough to put me on top 20 of the Leaderboard for Economics.  I came in around 70.  The people who made top 20 had perfect guesses, stuck with them, and got into the question a little later as well which improved the accuracy scores computed by GJOpen.


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