Herd-following Tuesday morning

We consider a forecast more than 0.7 Standard Deviations away from the median to be an outlier. Outliers are marked in red and ignored in the team forecast. The team includes up to 24 people who have beat the crowd in all related questions.

IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 80
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
Wagle -2.66 20
974david -2.65 25
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 75
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 28
0 0 0
6.40 or more Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 5
clinton -3.09 100
fifty-sixty -3.01 85
Jean-Pierre -2.93 95
Wagle -2.66 5
974david -2.65 35
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 95
Mroochyslav -2.25 79
Raisinville -2.11 100
Clairvoyance -2.08 100
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 75
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
GeneH -1.83 100
einsteinjs -1.82 100
cmeinel -1.81 95
dkc -1.75 100
austerity -1.60 98
jeremylichtman -1.56 100
Travist -1.54 0
madre -1.54 100
jkbick -1.49 100
Manfred -1.49 100
Anneinak -1.46 100
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 99
Standard Deviation 36
93 99 6
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 15
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 15
Jean-Pierre -2.93 5
Wagle -2.66 10
974david -2.65 25
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 5
Mroochyslav -2.25 21
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 25
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 2
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 25
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 9
7 1 -6
Less than 6.30 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
Wagle -2.66 65
974david -2.65 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 0
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 13
0 0 0
IFP6. Asian Trilateral
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.89 0
clinton -2.84 0
Wagle -2.66 15
974david -2.37 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
GeneH -1.72 0
jeremylichtman -1.52 0
scholarandcat -1.52 0
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 100
Travist -1.47 0
hyperionok -1.47 2
ed3 -1.47 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 20
0 0 0
IFP7. Jason Rezaian
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 100
fifty-sixty -3.01 70
Jean-Pierre -2.89 25
clinton -2.84 35
Wagle -2.66 15
974david -2.37 75
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 50
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 62
Clairvoyance -1.94 60
Raisinville -1.91 50
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
einsteinjs -1.82 71
cmeinel -1.81 57
GeneH -1.72 70
jeremylichtman -1.52 85
scholarandcat -1.52 37
banda311 -1.50 15
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 90
hyperionok -1.47 75
malcmur -1.43 12
austerity -1.40 66
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 61
Standard Deviation 30
69 64 -5
IFP8. NK LICBM
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 87
Jean-Pierre -2.89 50
clinton -2.84 72
Wagle -2.66 15
974david -2.37 85
Mroochyslav -2.20 37
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 80
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 23
Clairvoyance -1.94 75
Raisinville -1.91 45
cmeinel -1.81 65
jeremylichtman -1.52 32
scholarandcat -1.52 57
jkbick -1.49 75
Manfred -1.49 9
CR -1.49 98
Travist -1.47 70
hyperionok -1.47 75
malcmur -1.43 27
austerity -1.40 61
Amir -1.40 25
lsgold7 -1.39 90
madre -1.36 95
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 67
Standard Deviation 27
70 69 -1
IFP9. Venezuela Default
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 8
Wagle -2.66 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 99
Mroochyslav -2.25 59
Raisinville -2.11 10
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 33
GeneH -1.83 0
cmeinel -1.81 12
scholarandcat -1.63 7
austerity -1.60 15
jeremylichtman -1.56 1
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 10
Manfred -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 45
Anneinak -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 5
Amir -1.40 25
john27 -1.35 15
dada -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 8
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 8
Standard Deviation 22
7 6 -1
IFP12. OPEC quota
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 2
Wagle -2.66 15
974david -2.65 85
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 1
Mroochyslav -2.25 23
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 3
christianmaas -1.94 4
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
scholarandcat -1.63 0
austerity -1.60 1
jeremylichtman -1.56 100
Travist -1.54 1
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 90
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 30
6 2 -4
IFP13. Venice Lesbophobes
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
clinton -2.84 4
Wagle -2.66 15
974david -2.37 75
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 99
slobodan -2.02 1
Clairvoyance -1.94 15
Raisinville -1.91 18
Manfred -1.49 0
ed3 -1.47 10
malcmur -1.43 7
austerity -1.40 18
madre -1.36 5
john27 -1.35 15
mparrault -1.32 13
JJMLP -1.24 20
Anneinak -1.21 0
yaifuz26 -1.13 55
TVANKSTA -1.08 75
ccameron -1.08 35
deannebridget -1.06 10
Heffalump -0.98 25
Marius -0.87 10
ESR -0.75 18
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 15
Standard Deviation 26
11 9 -2
IFP14. Africa polio
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 100
Jean-Pierre -2.89 75
clinton -2.84 59
Wagle -2.66 95
974david -2.37 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 5
slobodan -2.02 1
Clairvoyance -1.94 40
Raisinville -1.91 67
cmeinel -1.81 62
dkc -1.75 55
GeneH -1.72 50
scholarandcat -1.52 43
Travist -1.47 95
hyperionok -1.47 90
ed3 -1.47 80
malcmur -1.43 38
austerity -1.40 63
madre -1.36 100
john27 -1.35 45
Khalid -1.34 60
mparrault -1.32 60
lindsey -1.27 40
JJMLP -1.24 70
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 60
Standard Deviation 27
67 60 -7
IFP15. Assad Out
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 95
fifty-sixty -3.01 33
Jean-Pierre -2.89 10
clinton -2.84 18
Wagle -2.66 5
974david -2.37 35
Mroochyslav -2.20 59
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 15
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 18
Clairvoyance -1.94 30
Raisinville -1.91 20
einsteinjs -1.82 90
cmeinel -1.81 58
dkc -1.75 5
GeneH -1.72 75
jeremylichtman -1.52 100
scholarandcat -1.52 35
jkbick -1.49 65
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 50
hyperionok -1.47 15
ed3 -1.47 33
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 31
Standard Deviation 30
28 27 -1
IFP17. Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.89 10
clinton -2.84 1
974david -2.37 30
Mroochyslav -2.20 61
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 11
slobodan -2.02 4
christianmaas -1.94 6
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 2
jeremylichtman -1.52 45
scholarandcat -1.52 1
banda311 -1.50 1
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 0
hyperionok -1.47 10
malcmur -1.43 2
austerity -1.40 19
Amir -1.40 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 1
Standard Deviation 15
0 3 3
IFP18. TTIP
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 69
Jean-Pierre -2.93 25
974david -2.65 10
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 99
Mroochyslav -2.25 65
Raisinville -2.11 25
Clairvoyance -2.08 20
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 48
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 2
cmeinel -1.81 28
dkc -1.75 30
scholarandcat -1.63 42
austerity -1.60 28
Travist -1.54 80
madre -1.54 1
banda311 -1.54 15
Manfred -1.49 35
CR -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 40
Anneinak -1.46 5
malcmur -1.43 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 26
Standard Deviation 30
18 26 8
IFP19. Iran G7 party
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 95
fifty-sixty -3.01 72
Jean-Pierre -2.89 50
clinton -2.84 82
974david -2.37 75
Mroochyslav -2.20 25
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 99
slobodan -2.02 1
christianmaas -1.94 40
Clairvoyance -1.94 30
Raisinville -1.91 40
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
einsteinjs -1.82 85
cmeinel -1.81 50
GeneH -1.72 10
jeremylichtman -1.52 2
scholarandcat -1.52 48
banda311 -1.50 75
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 100
Travist -1.47 25
hyperionok -1.47 75
malcmur -1.43 71
austerity -1.40 81
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 60
Standard Deviation 32
63 63 0
IFP22. Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 9
fifty-sixty -3.04 33
Jean-Pierre -2.93 15
974david -2.65 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 97
Mroochyslav -2.25 19
Raisinville -2.11 0
einsteinjs -2.10 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 15
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 35
GeneH -1.90 10
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 30
dkc -1.77 50
madre -1.75 2
scholarandcat -1.66 25
ed3 -1.66 5
austerity -1.60 70
jeremylichtman -1.56 65
Travist -1.54 90
banda311 -1.54 12
hyperionok -1.51 30
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 15
Standard Deviation 28
17 12 -5
IFP24. Fed Funds 2015
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
jeremylichtman -1.52 100
patrickmeehan5 -1.51 99
Rebel ran riot -1.44 0
wlmsears -1.38 80
Delorean -1.38 100
einsteinjs -1.14 100
Raisinville -1.01 100
madre -0.96 95
Mroochyslav -0.95 89
Testbravo52 -0.87 50
ESR -0.82 90
donmars -0.82 95
JP -0.80 98
dada -0.75 100
tomh -0.74 67
GeneH -0.73 100
Anneinak -0.71 100
Heffalump -0.71 100
Ossipon -0.69 95
hyperionok -0.67 85
austerity -0.67 100
Darren -0.66 35
BlackJackBones -0.66 85
ben -0.65 85
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 95
Standard Deviation 24
97 95 -2
IFP25. Walking Dead
Glenn Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 15
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 99
Raisinville -1.01 20
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
JP -0.80 45
dada -0.75 40
ben -0.65 30
GJDrew -0.63 32
Fsugirl24 -0.55 35
Clairvoyance -0.54 45
malcmur -0.53 32
SirRujak -0.53 0
NickLutz -0.45 12
BenP -0.43 5
ShotintheDark -0.43 40
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 34
mike97mike -0.42 5
scholarandcat -0.41 15
cdob63 -0.41 29
yaifuz26 -0.40 0
Gregory -0.40 15
Hammer Time -0.39 10
TopQuark -0.37 5
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 17
Standard Deviation 21
42 24 -18
All of the above will survive season 6 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 60
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 0
Raisinville -1.01 8
Rebel ran riot -1.00 99
Mroochyslav -0.89 100
JP -0.80 40
dada -0.75 40
ben -0.65 30
GJDrew -0.63 30
Fsugirl24 -0.55 65
Clairvoyance -0.54 35
malcmur -0.53 11
SirRujak -0.53 10
NickLutz -0.45 50
BenP -0.43 85
ShotintheDark -0.43 15
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 1
mike97mike -0.42 30
scholarandcat -0.41 27
cdob63 -0.41 1
yaifuz26 -0.40 25
Gregory -0.40 25
Hammer Time -0.39 60
TopQuark -0.37 88
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 30
Standard Deviation 30
25 39 14
Rick Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 0
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 1
Raisinville -1.01 24
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
JP -0.80 0
dada -0.75 0
ben -0.65 0
GJDrew -0.63 3
Fsugirl24 -0.55 0
Clairvoyance -0.54 0
malcmur -0.53 4
SirRujak -0.53 20
NickLutz -0.45 0
BenP -0.43 0
ShotintheDark -0.43 5
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 0
mike97mike -0.42 5
scholarandcat -0.41 5
cdob63 -0.41 2
yaifuz26 -0.40 15
Gregory -0.40 15
Hammer Time -0.39 0
TopQuark -0.37 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 6
3 1 -2
Carl Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 0
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 0
Raisinville -1.01 24
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
JP -0.80 0
dada -0.75 10
ben -0.65 0
GJDrew -0.63 3
Fsugirl24 -0.55 0
Clairvoyance -0.54 0
malcmur -0.53 16
SirRujak -0.53 10
NickLutz -0.45 5
BenP -0.43 5
ShotintheDark -0.43 20
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 5
mike97mike -0.42 5
scholarandcat -0.41 24
cdob63 -0.41 18
yaifuz26 -0.40 25
Gregory -0.40 15
Hammer Time -0.39 5
TopQuark -0.37 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 8
7 3 -4
Carol Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 15
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 0
Raisinville -1.01 0
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
JP -0.80 15
dada -0.75 10
ben -0.65 25
GJDrew -0.63 12
Fsugirl24 -0.55 0
Clairvoyance -0.54 20
malcmur -0.53 19
SirRujak -0.53 10
NickLutz -0.45 18
BenP -0.43 5
ShotintheDark -0.43 5
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 5
mike97mike -0.42 25
scholarandcat -0.41 24
cdob63 -0.41 39
yaifuz26 -0.40 15
Gregory -0.40 15
Hammer Time -0.39 10
TopQuark -0.37 5
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 11
Standard Deviation 9
11 15 4
Daryl Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 10
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 0
Raisinville -1.01 24
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
JP -0.80 0
dada -0.75 0
ben -0.65 15
GJDrew -0.63 20
Fsugirl24 -0.55 0
Clairvoyance -0.54 0
malcmur -0.53 18
SirRujak -0.53 50
NickLutz -0.45 15
BenP -0.43 0
ShotintheDark -0.43 15
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 55
mike97mike -0.42 30
scholarandcat -0.41 5
cdob63 -0.41 11
yaifuz26 -0.40 20
Gregory -0.40 15
Hammer Time -0.39 15
TopQuark -0.37 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 13
Standard Deviation 14
12 19 7
IFP29. Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 100
clinton -3.09 100
fifty-sixty -3.04 90
Jean-Pierre -2.93 90
974david -2.65 65
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 5
Mroochyslav -2.25 85
Raisinville -2.11 70
Clairvoyance -2.08 90
slobodan -2.02 100
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 90
dkc -1.77 100
madre -1.75 100
scholarandcat -1.66 93
austerity -1.60 100
donmars -1.59 87
jeremylichtman -1.56 90
Travist -1.54 90
banda311 -1.54 95
hyperionok -1.51 55
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0
Manfred -1.49 74
dada -1.48 100
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 90
Standard Deviation 26
100 94 -6
IFP30. Grexit
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 4
fifty-sixty -3.01 2
Jean-Pierre -2.93 3
974david -2.65 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 5
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 2
christianmaas -1.94 7
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
dkc -1.75 5
scholarandcat -1.63 15
austerity -1.60 13
Travist -1.54 0
madre -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 5
jkbick -1.49 5
CR -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 25
Anneinak -1.46 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 2
Standard Deviation 5
4 2 -2
IFP31. WTI
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 20
fifty-sixty -3.01 40
Jean-Pierre -2.93 60
974david -2.65 35
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 41
Raisinville -2.11 100
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 45
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 65
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
scholarandcat -1.63 35
austerity -1.60 35
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 10
madre -1.54 2
banda311 -1.54 35
jkbick -1.49 10
Manfred -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 20
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 20
Standard Deviation 26
5 28 23
Less than $34.00 per barrel Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 80
fifty-sixty -3.01 60
Jean-Pierre -2.93 40
974david -2.65 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 59
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 55
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 35
einsteinjs -1.82 100
cmeinel -1.81 100
dkc -1.75 100
scholarandcat -1.63 65
austerity -1.60 65
jeremylichtman -1.56 100
Travist -1.54 90
madre -1.54 98
banda311 -1.54 50
jkbick -1.49 90
Manfred -1.49 100
hyperionok -1.47 5
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 62
Standard Deviation 36
95 72 -23
IFP33. Oil export ban
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -2.47 99
Raisinville -2.08 100
Falconer -1.97 0
Rebel ran riot -1.86 99
dada -1.59 95
wlmsears -1.48 45
Mroochyslav -1.48 79
Anneinak -1.44 100
einsteinjs -1.42 100
Delorean -1.38 100
slobodan -1.35 2
malcmur -1.33 91
Jean-Pierre -1.32 85
madre -1.31 99
cmeinel -1.26 84
nls -1.15 90
ccameron -1.13 85
austerity -1.12 100
boz -1.06 44
GeneH -1.04 95
clinton -1.04 97
Agent0090 -1.04 95
Testbravo52 -0.97 80
yaifuz26 -0.97 65
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 93
Standard Deviation 28
94 94 0
IFP34. South China ADIZ
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 72
fifty-sixty -3.01 30
Jean-Pierre -2.89 20
clinton -2.84 51
974david -2.37 85
Mroochyslav -2.20 85
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 89
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 8
Clairvoyance -1.94 30
Raisinville -1.91 3
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 50
jeremylichtman -1.52 10
scholarandcat -1.52 25
banda311 -1.50 66
jkbick -1.49 70
Manfred -1.49 10
CR -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 75
hyperionok -1.47 55
ed3 -1.47 10
malcmur -1.43 33
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 31
Standard Deviation 32
39 29 -10
IFP35. Jurassic World
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 0
einsteinjs -1.14 0
wlmsears -1.12 10
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 99
jeremylichtman -1.06 0
Raisinville -1.01 0
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
madre -0.96 0
Mroochyslav -0.89 0
donmars -0.82 0
JP -0.80 0
dada -0.75 0
GeneH -0.73 0
BestGuess -0.69 0
Testbravo52 -0.67 75
BlackJackBones -0.66 33
Xu -0.65 0
Khalid -0.65 0
GJDrew -0.63 0
clinton -0.62 0
cmeinel -0.60 0
brian -0.60 0
Heffalump -0.60 0
austerity -0.58 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 24
0 1 1
IFP36. Adnan Syed
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 5
Raisinville -1.01 10
madre -0.96 3
Testbravo52 -0.67 25
BlackJackBones -0.66 21
ben -0.65 15
GJDrew -0.63 25
clinton -0.62 33
cmeinel -0.60 11
Heffalump -0.60 15
Clairvoyance -0.54 0
slobodan -0.54 5
malcmur -0.53 5
praedico -0.53 60
AngrySloth -0.48 25
MAA414 -0.45 20
NickLutz -0.45 20
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 5
scholarandcat -0.41 10
cdob63 -0.41 4
yaifuz26 -0.40 45
Hammer Time -0.39 0
The Brown Recluse -0.38 7
Hockey Prophets -0.37 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 10
Standard Deviation 14
13 9 -4
IFP38. Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 8
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 0
Falconer -1.97 100
dada -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.44 40
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 41
einsteinjs -1.42 1
ed3 -1.36 45
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
cmeinel -1.26 35
k13rkeg44rd -1.25 0
wlmsears -1.23 55
malcmur -1.22 35
nls -1.15 20
ccameron -1.13 33
boz -1.06 35
Jean-Pierre -1.05 25
GeneH -1.04 0
clinton -1.04 20
austerity -1.03 10
yaifuz26 -0.97 20
Gor999 -0.96 35
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 20
Standard Deviation 23
18 24 6
IFP39. Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 55
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 5
Falconer -1.97 100
dada -1.59 60
Anneinak -1.44 44
Rebel ran riot -1.42 99
Mroochyslav -1.42 41
Delorean -1.38 55
slobodan -1.35 100
madre -1.31 100
cmeinel -1.26 60
wlmsears -1.23 80
malcmur -1.22 82
nls -1.15 85
ccameron -1.13 65
Markmsl -1.11 45
boz -1.06 61
Jean-Pierre -1.05 35
GeneH -1.04 65
clinton -1.04 65
austerity -1.03 58
Darrel57Murphy -0.99 55
yaifuz26 -0.97 65
GJDrew -0.95 55
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 60
Standard Deviation 22
58 58 0
IFP40. IRA
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.04 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
974david -2.65 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Raisinville -2.11 0
einsteinjs -2.10 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.90 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
madre -1.75 0
scholarandcat -1.66 0
ed3 -1.66 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
banda311 -1.54 10
hyperionok -1.51 40
jkbick -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
dada -1.48 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 8
0 0 0
IFP44. Goodell
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 99
einsteinjs -1.14 99
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 100
Raisinville -1.01 99
Rebel ran riot -1.00 99
madre -0.96 100
JP -0.80 100
dada -0.75 99
ben -0.65 90
GJDrew -0.63 90
clinton -0.62 100
cmeinel -0.60 100
brian -0.60 95
Heffalump -0.60 94
austerity -0.58 87
Clairvoyance -0.54 100
slobodan -0.54 99
malcmur -0.53 98
nerzhin -0.52 95
RobGreco -0.51 96
AngrySloth -0.48 75
NickLutz -0.45 90
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 98
cdob63 -0.41 97
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 98
Standard Deviation 5
98 99 1
IFP45. Syrian refugees
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 10
Jean-Pierre -2.89 10
clinton -2.84 2
974david -2.37 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 21
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 85
slobodan -2.02 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
Raisinville -1.91 40
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 25
dkc -1.75 10
GeneH -1.72 15
jeremylichtman -1.52 0
scholarandcat -1.52 20
Travist -1.47 20
hyperionok -1.47 45
ed3 -1.47 85
FuturoMAGE -1.44 10
malcmur -1.43 60
austerity -1.40 25
Amir -1.40 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 12
Standard Deviation 25
16 8 -8
1 million or more Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 90
Jean-Pierre -2.89 90
clinton -2.84 98
974david -2.37 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 79
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 0
slobodan -2.02 100
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
Raisinville -1.91 60
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
einsteinjs -1.82 100
cmeinel -1.81 75
dkc -1.75 90
GeneH -1.72 85
jeremylichtman -1.52 100
scholarandcat -1.52 80
Travist -1.47 80
hyperionok -1.47 35
ed3 -1.47 15
FuturoMAGE -1.44 90
malcmur -1.43 40
austerity -1.40 75
Amir -1.40 99
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 80
Standard Deviation 33
84 92 8
IFP46. Bitcoin
More than 250,000 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 15
clinton -2.84 82
Mroochyslav -2.20 23
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 0
slobodan -2.02 100
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
Raisinville -1.91 5
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 30
jeremylichtman -1.52 10
malcmur -1.43 11
austerity -1.40 70
madre -1.36 55
john27 -1.35 17
mparrault -1.32 30
boz -1.25 48
Anneinak -1.21 94
yaifuz26 -1.13 5
redacted -1.09 95
ccameron -1.08 15
donmars -1.07 15
deannebridget -1.06 60
Heffalump -0.98 30
Rebel ran riot -0.95 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 26
Standard Deviation 31
18 23 5
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 80
clinton -2.84 18
Mroochyslav -2.20 71
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 0
slobodan -2.02 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
Raisinville -1.91 70
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 65
jeremylichtman -1.52 90
malcmur -1.43 86
austerity -1.40 30
madre -1.36 44
john27 -1.35 75
mparrault -1.32 62
boz -1.25 43
Anneinak -1.21 6
yaifuz26 -1.13 20
redacted -1.09 5
ccameron -1.08 55
donmars -1.07 60
deannebridget -1.06 40
Heffalump -0.98 68
Rebel ran riot -0.95 99
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 57
Standard Deviation 30
69 73 4
Less than 125,000 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
clinton -2.84 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 6
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 100
slobodan -2.02 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 25
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
jeremylichtman -1.52 0
malcmur -1.43 3
austerity -1.40 0
madre -1.36 1
john27 -1.35 8
mparrault -1.32 8
boz -1.25 9
Anneinak -1.21 0
yaifuz26 -1.13 75
redacted -1.09 0
ccameron -1.08 30
donmars -1.07 25
deannebridget -1.06 0
Heffalump -0.98 2
Rebel ran riot -0.95 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 2
Standard Deviation 24
13 4 -9
IFP47. iPhones
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 95
einsteinjs -1.14 100
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 89
jeremylichtman -1.06 100
Raisinville -1.01 100
Rebel ran riot -1.00 99
madre -0.96 95
Mroochyslav -0.89 89
dada -0.75 100
GeneH -0.73 100
Ossipon -0.69 95
BlackJackBones -0.66 98
Xu -0.65 97
Khalid -0.65 85
GJDrew -0.63 66
clinton -0.62 93
cmeinel -0.60 86
brian -0.60 98
Heffalump -0.60 82
aaseawaf15 -0.58 80
austerity -0.58 70
Falconer -0.54 100
Clairvoyance -0.54 80
slobodan -0.54 100
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 95
Standard Deviation 9
90 97 7
IFP48. How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?
Majority Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 50
Jean-Pierre -2.93 70
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 10
Raisinville -2.11 30
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 100
GeneH -1.90 60
madre -1.75 33
ed3 -1.66 20
austerity -1.60 65
donmars -1.59 30
Anneinak -1.46 88
malcmur -1.43 21
mparrault -1.41 35
lsgold7 -1.39 90
john27 -1.35 26
yaifuz26 -1.33 45
JJMLP -1.30 15
boz -1.25 34
Dima K -1.22 55
ccameron -1.19 25
TVANKSTA -1.12 65
redacted -1.09 25
klin -1.09 70
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 34
Standard Deviation 26
55 36 -19
Plurality Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 50
Jean-Pierre -2.93 27
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 90
Raisinville -2.11 65
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 0
GeneH -1.90 40
madre -1.75 63
ed3 -1.66 75
austerity -1.60 35
donmars -1.59 70
Anneinak -1.46 12
malcmur -1.43 68
mparrault -1.41 58
lsgold7 -1.39 10
john27 -1.35 67
yaifuz26 -1.33 35
JJMLP -1.30 75
boz -1.25 59
Dima K -1.22 43
ccameron -1.19 65
TVANKSTA -1.12 35
redacted -1.09 75
klin -1.09 28
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 54
Standard Deviation 22
45 62 17
Not a plurality Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 3
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Raisinville -2.11 5
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 0
GeneH -1.90 0
madre -1.75 4
ed3 -1.66 5
austerity -1.60 0
donmars -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 11
mparrault -1.41 7
lsgold7 -1.39 0
john27 -1.35 7
yaifuz26 -1.33 20
JJMLP -1.30 10
boz -1.25 7
Dima K -1.22 2
ccameron -1.19 10
TVANKSTA -1.12 0
redacted -1.09 0
klin -1.09 2
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 2
Standard Deviation 10
0 2 2
IFP49. USG shutdown
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 30
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 1
Falconer -1.97 0
dada -1.59 3
jeremylichtman -1.47 0
Anneinak -1.44 0
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 7
einsteinjs -1.42 0
Delorean -1.38 0
ed3 -1.36 0
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
cmeinel -1.26 1
k13rkeg44rd -1.25 0
wlmsears -1.23 5
malcmur -1.22 5
nls -1.15 2
ccameron -1.13 1
AlexisTocqueville -1.06 0
boz -1.06 31
Jean-Pierre -1.05 10
GeneH -1.04 0
clinton -1.04 2
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 8
1 1 0
IFP50. BOJ easing
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 95
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.93 1
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 80
Mroochyslav -2.25 11
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 5
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 55
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 15
austerity -1.60 5
jeremylichtman -1.56 85
madre -1.54 1
Manfred -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 35
Anneinak -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 8
lsgold7 -1.39 90
john27 -1.35 75
dada -1.34 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 36
7 3 -4
IFP51. IAEA access
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 15
Jean-Pierre -2.89 25
clinton -2.84 2
974david -2.37 25
Mroochyslav -2.20 61
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 5
slobodan -2.02 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 60
Raisinville -1.91 5
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 20
scholarandcat -1.52 15
banda311 -1.50 10
Travist -1.47 85
hyperionok -1.47 85
DBlitz -1.46 25
malcmur -1.43 35
austerity -1.40 26
Amir -1.40 15
lsgold7 -1.39 15
madre -1.36 15
john27 -1.35 15
Khalid -1.34 30
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 15
Standard Deviation 24
13 13 0
IFP52. Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 100
fifty-sixty -3.01 85
Jean-Pierre -2.89 90
clinton -2.84 99
974david -2.37 75
Mroochyslav -2.20 37
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 9
slobodan -2.02 100
Clairvoyance -1.94 88
Raisinville -1.91 99
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
einsteinjs -1.82 100
cmeinel -1.81 87
dkc -1.75 95
jeremylichtman -1.52 99
scholarandcat -1.52 95
banda311 -1.50 20
Manfred -1.49 95
Travist -1.47 10
hyperionok -1.47 75
malcmur -1.43 83
austerity -1.40 100
KSpain -1.40 25
Amir -1.40 98
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 92
Standard Deviation 30
95 93 -2
IFP53. Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?
Podemos Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 15
Wagle -2.66 40
974david -2.65 75
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 10
Mroochyslav -2.25 2
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 100
GeneH -1.90 0
dkc -1.77 5
madre -1.75 0
ed3 -1.66 5
austerity -1.60 0
dada -1.48 0
Anneinak -1.46 11
malcmur -1.43 16
mparrault -1.41 10
KSpain -1.40 5
Amir -1.40 35
john27 -1.35 20
yaifuz26 -1.33 25
JJMLP -1.30 0
boz -1.25 7
RF -1.25 15
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 8
Standard Deviation 24
19 8 -11
Both Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 10
Wagle -2.66 5
974david -2.65 25
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 80
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 22
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
GeneH -1.90 15
dkc -1.77 25
madre -1.75 0
ed3 -1.66 0
austerity -1.60 0
dada -1.48 15
Anneinak -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 2
mparrault -1.41 5
KSpain -1.40 1
Amir -1.40 25
john27 -1.35 1
yaifuz26 -1.33 15
JJMLP -1.30 0
boz -1.25 9
RF -1.25 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 3
Standard Deviation 17
15 5 -10
Neither Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 50
Wagle -2.66 5
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 5
Mroochyslav -2.25 31
Raisinville -2.11 10
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 0
GeneH -1.90 15
dkc -1.77 20
madre -1.75 15
ed3 -1.66 70
austerity -1.60 40
dada -1.48 5
Anneinak -1.46 67
malcmur -1.43 12
mparrault -1.41 40
KSpain -1.40 86
Amir -1.40 15
john27 -1.35 20
yaifuz26 -1.33 45
JJMLP -1.30 35
boz -1.25 43
RF -1.25 25
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 22
Standard Deviation 23
33 23 -10
Ciudadanos Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 25
Wagle -2.66 50
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 5
Mroochyslav -2.25 67
Raisinville -2.11 68
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
slobodan -2.02 0
GeneH -1.90 70
dkc -1.77 50
madre -1.75 85
ed3 -1.66 25
austerity -1.60 60
dada -1.48 80
Anneinak -1.46 22
malcmur -1.43 70
mparrault -1.41 45
KSpain -1.40 8
Amir -1.40 25
john27 -1.35 59
yaifuz26 -1.33 15
JJMLP -1.30 65
boz -1.25 41
RF -1.25 60
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 50
Standard Deviation 25
33 64 31
IFP55. Malaysia controls
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 3
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 60
Raisinville -2.11 4
Clairvoyance -2.08 15
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 15
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 10
austerity -1.60 33
banda311 -1.54 75
Manfred -1.49 14
hyperionok -1.47 65
Anneinak -1.46 11
malcmur -1.43 7
KSpain -1.40 75
john27 -1.35 15
dada -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 15
donmars -1.31 10
RF -1.25 30
ccameron -1.19 12
yaifuz26 -1.13 20
TVANKSTA -1.12 5
deannebridget -1.06 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 13
Standard Deviation 23
9 8 -1
IFP56. Winds of Winter
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 1
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 100
Raisinville -1.01 40
anmins -0.69 10
ben -0.65 10
Khalid -0.65 35
GJDrew -0.63 20
Heffalump -0.60 50
austerity -0.58 75
Clairvoyance -0.54 10
malcmur -0.53 65
praedico -0.53 65
RobGreco -0.51 8
MAA414 -0.45 33
NickLutz -0.45 50
UnderwaterPutin -0.42 35
Aaronlane -0.42 65
Gor999 -0.42 35
scholarandcat -0.41 20
davecrosby -0.41 5
cdob63 -0.41 11
yaifuz26 -0.40 65
ravel -0.36 11
Wagle -0.34 90
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 35
Standard Deviation 28
25 36 11
IFP57. Russia food embargo
More than five, but less than all Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 20
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.93 6
974david -2.65 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 100
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 30
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 7
Travist -1.54 0
madre -1.54 70
banda311 -1.54 5
jkbick -1.49 1
CR -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 40
Anneinak -1.46 0
DBlitz -1.46 30
malcmur -1.43 0
Amir -1.40 34
john27 -1.35 5
mparrault -1.32 2
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 29
12 6 -6
0 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 70
fifty-sixty -3.01 65
Jean-Pierre -2.93 75
974david -2.65 55
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 59
Raisinville -2.11 25
Clairvoyance -2.08 75
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 70
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 50
Travist -1.54 5
madre -1.54 5
banda311 -1.54 85
jkbick -1.49 49
CR -1.49 100
hyperionok -1.47 15
Anneinak -1.46 91
DBlitz -1.46 5
malcmur -1.43 68
Amir -1.40 5
john27 -1.35 60
mparrault -1.32 80
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 59
Standard Deviation 33
58 74 16
All Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 5
fifty-sixty -3.01 10
Jean-Pierre -2.93 4
974david -2.65 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 5
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 4
Travist -1.54 0
madre -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 1
CR -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 5
Anneinak -1.46 0
DBlitz -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 13
Amir -1.40 6
john27 -1.35 33
mparrault -1.32 11
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 7
6 2 -4
Between 1 and 5, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 5
fifty-sixty -3.01 20
Jean-Pierre -2.93 15
974david -2.65 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 41
Raisinville -2.11 40
Clairvoyance -2.08 25
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 30
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 39
Travist -1.54 95
madre -1.54 25
banda311 -1.54 10
jkbick -1.49 49
CR -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 40
Anneinak -1.46 9
DBlitz -1.46 65
malcmur -1.43 19
Amir -1.40 55
john27 -1.35 2
mparrault -1.32 7
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 19
Standard Deviation 23
24 18 -6
IFP58. Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran’s future in the region and world?
Remember to state your question first. Then, how optimistic are you about the Iran deal? (100% = optimistic; 0% = pessimistic) Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -2.84 57
Mroochyslav -2.20 61
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 100
slobodan -2.02 100
dkc -1.75 85
scholarandcat -1.52 55
banda311 -1.50 90
KSpain -1.40 5
Amir -1.40 65
lsgold7 -1.39 10
john27 -1.35 0
Pachi -1.24 60
Anneinak -1.21 0
dada -1.12 49
redacted -1.09 0
TVANKSTA -1.08 65
deannebridget -1.06 25
fatalis -1.01 75
Heffalump -0.98 33
Hideous Cheese Blunder -0.98 30
JP -0.95 60
tom.prigg -0.94 98
Lucky -0.88 95
Titan7160 -0.79 60
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 60
Standard Deviation 32
5 60 55
IFP61. Syria no-fly zone
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.89 0
clinton -2.84 0
Wagle -2.66 20
974david -2.37 5
Mroochyslav -2.20 11
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 74
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 2
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 2
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
GeneH -1.72 0
jeremylichtman -1.52 0
scholarandcat -1.52 0
banda311 -1.50 10
jkbick -1.49 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 15
8 1 -7
IFP62. KSA
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.04 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 10
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 1
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.90 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 2
dkc -1.77 3
madre -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 1
Travist -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 0
hyperionok -1.51 0
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 2
2 0 -2
Yes, Someone else Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 15
fifty-sixty -3.04 1
Jean-Pierre -2.93 4
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.90 0
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.77 5
madre -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 10
jeremylichtman -1.56 7
Travist -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 0
hyperionok -1.51 2
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 3
0 0 0
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.04 2
Jean-Pierre -2.93 4
974david -2.65 1
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 17
Raisinville -2.11 2
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 7
GeneH -1.90 15
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
dkc -1.77 3
madre -1.75 1
austerity -1.60 10
jeremylichtman -1.56 1
Travist -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 85
hyperionok -1.51 0
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 1
Standard Deviation 17
2 2 0
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.04 2
Jean-Pierre -2.93 2
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Raisinville -2.11 2
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.90 5
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 3
dkc -1.77 2
madre -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 20
jeremylichtman -1.56 1
Travist -1.54 0
banda311 -1.54 0
hyperionok -1.51 0
Rebel ran riot -1.50 0
Manfred -1.49 0
CR -1.49 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 4
2 0 -2
No Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 100
clinton -3.09 85
fifty-sixty -3.04 95
Jean-Pierre -2.93 90
974david -2.65 99
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 90
Mroochyslav -2.25 83
Raisinville -2.11 95
Clairvoyance -2.08 100
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 93
GeneH -1.90 80
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 90
dkc -1.77 87
madre -1.75 99
austerity -1.60 60
jeremylichtman -1.56 90
Travist -1.54 100
banda311 -1.54 15
hyperionok -1.51 98
Rebel ran riot -1.50 99
Manfred -1.49 100
CR -1.49 100
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 95
Standard Deviation 17
94 98 4
IFP63. VW
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
wlmsears -1.12 20
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 99
jeremylichtman -1.06 65
Raisinville -1.01 5
Rebel ran riot -1.00 0
madre -0.96 10
JP -0.80 2
dada -0.75 18
GeneH -0.73 5
Anneinak -0.71 11
Ossipon -0.69 2
BlackJackBones -0.66 57
clinton -0.62 5
cmeinel -0.60 18
Heffalump -0.60 15
aaseawaf15 -0.58 20
austerity -0.58 32
Falconer -0.54 0
Clairvoyance -0.54 15
slobodan -0.54 100
malcmur -0.53 15
praedico -0.53 20
nerzhin -0.52 39
AngrySloth -0.48 40
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 16
Standard Deviation 27
17 11 -6
IFP64. Putin Abe
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 5
fifty-sixty -3.01 30
Jean-Pierre -2.89 20
clinton -2.84 7
Wagle -2.66 20
974david -2.37 45
Mroochyslav -2.20 29
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 33
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 25
Clairvoyance -1.94 20
Raisinville -1.91 5
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 20
cmeinel -1.81 22
GeneH -1.72 0
jeremylichtman -1.52 1
scholarandcat -1.52 20
jkbick -1.49 5
Manfred -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 75
hyperionok -1.47 60
FuturoMAGE -1.44 15
malcmur -1.43 37
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 20
Standard Deviation 24
23 19 -4
IFP66. RCEP
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
974david -2.65 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 3
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 2
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
scholarandcat -1.63 0
austerity -1.60 0
Travist -1.54 3
madre -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
hyperionok -1.47 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
malcmur -1.43 0
Amir -1.40 3
john27 -1.35 0
dada -1.34 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 1
0 0 0
IFP70. NATO 4
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 65
Jean-Pierre -2.89 40
clinton -2.84 82
Wagle -2.66 35
974david -2.37 85
Mroochyslav -2.20 41
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 20
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 17
Clairvoyance -1.94 60
Raisinville -1.91 20
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 50
cmeinel -1.81 50
dkc -1.75 90
jeremylichtman -1.52 25
jkbick -1.49 75
Manfred -1.49 100
Travist -1.47 90
hyperionok -1.47 35
malcmur -1.43 45
austerity -1.40 65
Amir -1.40 33
lsgold7 -1.39 66
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 50
Standard Deviation 27
51 49 -2
IFP72. Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 97
fifty-sixty -3.04 60
Jean-Pierre -2.93 90
Wagle -2.66 20
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 33
Mroochyslav -2.25 41
Raisinville -2.11 20
einsteinjs -2.10 100
Clairvoyance -2.08 80
slobodan -2.02 100
GeneH -1.90 65
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 75
dkc -1.77 100
madre -1.75 95
scholarandcat -1.66 90
ed3 -1.66 5
austerity -1.60 90
donmars -1.59 40
jeremylichtman -1.56 25
Travist -1.54 10
hyperionok -1.51 45
Manfred -1.49 100
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 70
Standard Deviation 34
100 78 -22
IFP73. Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 10
Jean-Pierre -2.89 15
clinton -2.84 6
Wagle -2.66 20
974david -2.37 25
Mroochyslav -2.20 59
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 50
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 5
Clairvoyance -1.94 20
Raisinville -1.91 20
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 15
dkc -1.75 5
GeneH -1.72 20
jeremylichtman -1.52 25
jkbick -1.49 15
Manfred -1.49 10
Travist -1.47 10
hyperionok -1.47 20
malcmur -1.43 11
austerity -1.40 32
Amir -1.40 53
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 17
Standard Deviation 22
3 15 12
IFP74. PA Israel halt
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
Jean-Pierre -2.89 25
clinton -2.84 15
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 33
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 9
Clairvoyance -1.94 15
Raisinville -1.91 30
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 15
dkc -1.75 30
GeneH -1.72 12
jeremylichtman -1.52 15
Travist -1.47 10
hyperionok -1.47 35
malcmur -1.43 12
madre -1.36 10
Khalid -1.34 10
mparrault -1.32 16
RF -1.25 10
mariush -1.19 45
yaifuz26 -1.13 5
dada -1.12 8
deannebridget -1.06 20
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 13
Standard Deviation 11
10 13 3
IFP75. Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.04 1
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 50
Raisinville -2.11 1
einsteinjs -2.10 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 2
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 2
dkc -1.77 0
madre -1.75 0
scholarandcat -1.66 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 0
jkbick -1.49 0
dada -1.48 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
FuturoMAGE -1.44 0
malcmur -1.43 1
mparrault -1.41 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 9
0 0 0
IFP76. NK nuke test
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.89 30
clinton -2.84 58
974david -2.37 50
Mroochyslav -2.20 41
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 51
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 17
Clairvoyance -1.94 60
Raisinville -1.91 40
cmeinel -1.81 52
jeremylichtman -1.52 85
scholarandcat -1.52 55
Travist -1.47 60
hyperionok -1.47 80
malcmur -1.43 45
austerity -1.40 65
lsgold7 -1.39 95
madre -1.36 65
mparrault -1.32 54
boz -1.25 35
RF -1.25 60
Anneinak -1.21 59
mariush -1.19 67
yaifuz26 -1.13 38
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 56
Standard Deviation 19
49 57 8
IFP77. NATO 4 or 5
Yes, only Article 5 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 10
Jean-Pierre -2.89 2
974david -2.37 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 41
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 0
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 7
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
dkc -1.75 10
jeremylichtman -1.52 6
jkbick -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 15
FuturoMAGE -1.44 2
malcmur -1.43 8
lsgold7 -1.39 10
madre -1.36 5
mparrault -1.32 5
RF -1.25 0
Anneinak -1.21 0
dada -1.12 9
redacted -1.09 9
klin -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 8
9 4 -5
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 10
Jean-Pierre -2.89 2
974david -2.37 15
Mroochyslav -2.20 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 10
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
cmeinel -1.81 5
dkc -1.75 10
jeremylichtman -1.52 3
jkbick -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 25
FuturoMAGE -1.44 1
malcmur -1.43 5
lsgold7 -1.39 10
madre -1.36 5
mparrault -1.32 5
RF -1.25 75
Anneinak -1.21 50
dada -1.12 0
redacted -1.09 1
klin -1.09 5
deannebridget -1.06 5
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 24
5 5 0
Yes, only Article 4 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 15
Jean-Pierre -2.89 6
974david -2.37 0
Mroochyslav -2.20 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 50
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 49
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
cmeinel -1.81 22
dkc -1.75 20
jeremylichtman -1.52 16
jkbick -1.49 25
Travist -1.47 50
FuturoMAGE -1.44 20
malcmur -1.43 25
lsgold7 -1.39 10
madre -1.36 10
mparrault -1.32 18
RF -1.25 25
Anneinak -1.21 50
dada -1.12 9
redacted -1.09 9
klin -1.09 30
deannebridget -1.06 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 19
Standard Deviation 16
10 19 9
No Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 65
Jean-Pierre -2.89 90
974david -2.37 85
Mroochyslav -2.20 59
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 40
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 44
Clairvoyance -1.94 50
cmeinel -1.81 68
dkc -1.75 60
jeremylichtman -1.52 75
jkbick -1.49 75
Travist -1.47 10
FuturoMAGE -1.44 77
malcmur -1.43 62
lsgold7 -1.39 70
madre -1.36 80
mparrault -1.32 72
RF -1.25 0
Anneinak -1.21 0
dada -1.12 82
redacted -1.09 81
klin -1.09 65
deannebridget -1.06 75
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 66
Standard Deviation 27
76 72 -4
IFP78. Panama Canal
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 33
Jean-Pierre -2.93 40
974david -2.65 65
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 20
Mroochyslav -2.25 41
Raisinville -2.11 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 40
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 58
GeneH -1.83 5
einsteinjs -1.82 99
cmeinel -1.81 38
dkc -1.75 35
austerity -1.60 60
jeremylichtman -1.56 100
Travist -1.54 75
madre -1.54 25
jkbick -1.49 5
Manfred -1.49 0
Anneinak -1.46 33
malcmur -1.43 25
lsgold7 -1.39 10
dada -1.34 25
Khalid -1.34 25
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 34
Standard Deviation 29
34 33 -1
IFP79. Putin Nuke Summit
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.89 10
clinton -2.84 9
974david -2.37 85
Mroochyslav -2.20 59
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 20
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 5
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 30
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
cmeinel -1.81 10
dkc -1.75 2
GeneH -1.72 5
jeremylichtman -1.52 1
scholarandcat -1.52 10
Manfred -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 5
malcmur -1.43 15
austerity -1.40 27
Amir -1.40 55
lsgold7 -1.39 33
madre -1.36 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 9
Standard Deviation 27
10 6 -4
IFP80. Brexit
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 0
clinton -3.09 80
fifty-sixty -3.04 66
Jean-Pierre -2.93 70
974david -2.65 50
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 90
Mroochyslav -2.25 59
Raisinville -2.11 0
einsteinjs -2.10 4
Clairvoyance -2.08 15
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 49
GeneH -1.90 25
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
dkc -1.77 90
madre -1.75 55
austerity -1.60 60
donmars -1.59 12
jeremylichtman -1.56 75
Travist -1.54 0
Manfred -1.49 0
dada -1.48 45
Anneinak -1.46 22
DBlitz -1.46 15
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 47
Standard Deviation 32
31 55 24
IFP81. GOP nominee
Jeb Bush Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 46
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 10
dada -1.59 5
Anneinak -1.44 11
Rebel ran riot -1.42 99
Mroochyslav -1.42 0
einsteinjs -1.42 14
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
wlmsears -1.23 5
malcmur -1.22 32
nls -1.15 28
boz -1.06 9
Jean-Pierre -1.05 0
GeneH -1.04 15
clinton -1.04 2
austerity -1.03 0
Gor999 -0.96 55
GJDrew -0.95 10
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 5
Khalid -0.92 20
Ossipon -0.92 15
admiralporky -0.88 70
Dima K -0.86 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 10
Standard Deviation 24
15 10 -5
Donald Trump Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 2
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 0
dada -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.44 23
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 41
einsteinjs -1.42 0
slobodan -1.35 100
madre -1.31 5
wlmsears -1.23 15
malcmur -1.22 4
nls -1.15 1
boz -1.06 16
Jean-Pierre -1.05 75
GeneH -1.04 15
clinton -1.04 51
austerity -1.03 20
Gor999 -0.96 5
GJDrew -0.95 21
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 55
Khalid -0.92 5
Ossipon -0.92 0
admiralporky -0.88 0
Dima K -0.86 55
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 10
Standard Deviation 26
15 10 -5
Marco Rubio Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 10
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 80
dada -1.59 75
Anneinak -1.44 23
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 31
einsteinjs -1.42 80
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 55
wlmsears -1.23 60
malcmur -1.22 36
nls -1.15 45
boz -1.06 27
Jean-Pierre -1.05 4
GeneH -1.04 30
clinton -1.04 37
austerity -1.03 35
Gor999 -0.96 5
GJDrew -0.95 40
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 20
Khalid -0.92 50
Ossipon -0.92 35
admiralporky -0.88 0
Dima K -0.86 14
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 33
Standard Deviation 24
33 47 14
Carly Fiorina Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 0
dada -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.44 0
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 0
einsteinjs -1.42 0
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
wlmsears -1.23 0
malcmur -1.22 1
nls -1.15 0
boz -1.06 1
Jean-Pierre -1.05 0
GeneH -1.04 0
clinton -1.04 0
austerity -1.03 0
Gor999 -0.96 10
GJDrew -0.95 0
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 0
Khalid -0.92 0
Ossipon -0.92 0
admiralporky -0.88 20
Dima K -0.86 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 4
0 0 0
Ben Carson Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 10
dada -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.44 11
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 0
einsteinjs -1.42 0
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
wlmsears -1.23 5
malcmur -1.22 3
nls -1.15 1
boz -1.06 1
Jean-Pierre -1.05 1
GeneH -1.04 0
clinton -1.04 0
austerity -1.03 0
Gor999 -0.96 15
GJDrew -0.95 3
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 0
Khalid -0.92 0
Ossipon -0.92 0
admiralporky -0.88 5
Dima K -0.86 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 4
0 0 0
None of the above Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 37
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 0
dada -1.59 0
Anneinak -1.44 9
Rebel ran riot -1.42 1
Mroochyslav -1.42 0
einsteinjs -1.42 3
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 0
wlmsears -1.23 0
malcmur -1.22 5
nls -1.15 5
boz -1.06 17
Jean-Pierre -1.05 0
GeneH -1.04 0
clinton -1.04 0
austerity -1.03 10
Gor999 -0.96 0
GJDrew -0.95 3
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 0
Khalid -0.92 0
Ossipon -0.92 15
admiralporky -0.88 5
Dima K -0.86 1
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 8
12 1 -11
Ted Cruz Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Raisinville -2.08 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.06 0
dada -1.59 20
Anneinak -1.44 23
Rebel ran riot -1.42 0
Mroochyslav -1.42 28
einsteinjs -1.42 3
slobodan -1.35 0
madre -1.31 40
wlmsears -1.23 15
malcmur -1.22 19
nls -1.15 20
boz -1.06 29
Jean-Pierre -1.05 20
GeneH -1.04 40
clinton -1.04 10
austerity -1.03 35
Gor999 -0.96 10
GJDrew -0.95 23
Kevin “Rusty” Peters. -0.94 20
Khalid -0.92 25
Ossipon -0.92 35
admiralporky -0.88 0
Dima K -0.86 29
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 20
Standard Deviation 12
25 31 6
IFP84. Turkey controls
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 50
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 10
Clairvoyance -2.08 30
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 38
GeneH -1.83 25
dkc -1.75 50
jeremylichtman -1.56 99
madre -1.54 65
jkbick -1.49 65
malcmur -1.43 41
lsgold7 -1.39 70
dada -1.34 65
mparrault -1.32 30
boz -1.25 50
RF -1.25 60
JP -1.11 20
deannebridget -1.06 0
Heffalump -1.02 47
Antacular -1.00 50
tom.prigg -0.94 50
CT Runner -0.93 30
nls -0.90 15
Marius -0.87 35
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 48
Standard Deviation 24
41 51 10
IFP85. Will Afghanistan’s Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Jean-Pierre -2.93 55
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 69
einsteinjs -2.10 3
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 69
GeneH -1.90 20
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
madre -1.75 55
austerity -1.60 40
Travist -1.54 0
dada -1.48 69
malcmur -1.43 21
mparrault -1.41 55
lsgold7 -1.39 25
Khalid -1.38 95
RF -1.25 40
Dima K -1.22 80
nls -1.15 40
deannebridget -1.06 85
Heffalump -1.05 41
Antacular -1.01 82
tom.prigg -0.98 95
CT Runner -0.93 70
Marius -0.87 40
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 55
Standard Deviation 29
50 55 5
IFP86. ASEAN China
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 92
fifty-sixty -3.01 75
Jean-Pierre -2.89 85
clinton -2.84 90
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 75
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 75
Clairvoyance -1.94 80
Raisinville -1.91 55
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 82
dkc -1.75 100
scholarandcat -1.52 86
jkbick -1.49 85
Travist -1.47 55
malcmur -1.43 45
austerity -1.40 80
lsgold7 -1.39 75
madre -1.36 95
Khalid -1.34 85
mparrault -1.32 65
lindsey -1.27 80
boz -1.25 66
RF -1.25 80
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 80
Standard Deviation 14
82 80 -2
IFP87. IMF
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 75
Jean-Pierre -2.89 75
clinton -2.84 95
Mroochyslav -2.20 100
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 10
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 87
Clairvoyance -1.94 70
Raisinville -1.91 75
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
einsteinjs -1.82 100
cmeinel -1.81 84
dkc -1.75 98
GeneH -1.72 75
jeremylichtman -1.52 98
jkbick -1.49 99
Travist -1.47 95
FuturoMAGE -1.44 90
malcmur -1.43 90
austerity -1.40 90
lsgold7 -1.39 80
madre -1.36 90
Khalid -1.34 90
mparrault -1.32 80
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 90
Standard Deviation 18
86 93 7
Someone from outside Europe Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.89 5
clinton -2.84 3
Mroochyslav -2.20 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 80
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 13
Clairvoyance -1.94 0
Raisinville -1.91 20
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 8
dkc -1.75 2
GeneH -1.72 25
jeremylichtman -1.52 1
jkbick -1.49 1
Travist -1.47 0
FuturoMAGE -1.44 5
malcmur -1.43 7
austerity -1.40 5
lsgold7 -1.39 10
madre -1.36 5
Khalid -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 16
8 4 -4
Someone else from Europe Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 20
Jean-Pierre -2.89 20
clinton -2.84 2
Mroochyslav -2.20 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 10
slobodan -2.02 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
Clairvoyance -1.94 30
Raisinville -1.91 5
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 8
dkc -1.75 0
GeneH -1.72 0
jeremylichtman -1.52 1
jkbick -1.49 0
Travist -1.47 5
FuturoMAGE -1.44 5
malcmur -1.43 3
austerity -1.40 5
lsgold7 -1.39 10
madre -1.36 5
Khalid -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 5
Standard Deviation 7
6 3 -3
IFP88. Superbowl
A team from the American Football Conference Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 25
einsteinjs -1.14 22
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 40
Raisinville -1.01 50
GeneH -0.73 55
clinton -0.62 50
austerity -0.58 40
Clairvoyance -0.54 62
slobodan -0.54 0
malcmur -0.53 55
tomh -0.49 65
Tom L -0.46 50
Gor999 -0.42 25
scholarandcat -0.41 65
cdob63 -0.41 53
Rote -0.39 45
ravel -0.36 16
ckruger -0.35 75
dms -0.32 70
ConMan0321 -0.31 57
CT Runner -0.30 65
kevkevkev -0.27 66
darius.hinton -0.24 35
benthinkin -0.24 50
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 50
Standard Deviation 18
46 50 4
A team from the National Football Conference Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 75
einsteinjs -1.14 78
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 60
Raisinville -1.01 50
GeneH -0.73 45
clinton -0.62 50
austerity -0.58 60
Clairvoyance -0.54 38
slobodan -0.54 100
malcmur -0.53 45
tomh -0.49 35
Tom L -0.46 50
Gor999 -0.42 75
scholarandcat -0.41 35
cdob63 -0.41 47
Rote -0.39 55
ravel -0.36 84
ckruger -0.35 25
dms -0.32 30
ConMan0321 -0.31 43
CT Runner -0.30 35
kevkevkev -0.27 34
darius.hinton -0.24 65
benthinkin -0.24 50
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 50
Standard Deviation 18
54 50 -4
IFP89. Iran Competitiveness
Above 75 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 69
Mroochyslav -2.25 29
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
christianmaas -1.94 10
GeneH -1.83 10
einsteinjs -1.82 0
dkc -1.75 5
jeremylichtman -1.56 45
madre -1.54 15
dada -1.34 19
Khalid -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 16
donmars -1.31 2
boz -1.25 34
JP -1.11 25
redacted -1.09 1
deannebridget -1.06 0
tom.prigg -0.94 0
RCScheffers -0.91 35
nls -0.90 40
Rene -0.78 35
Censusguyz -0.76 20
ravel -0.75 11
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 13
Standard Deviation 17
11 13 2
Between 61 and 75, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 70
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 20
Mroochyslav -2.25 71
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
christianmaas -1.94 75
GeneH -1.83 75
einsteinjs -1.82 51
dkc -1.75 70
jeremylichtman -1.56 50
madre -1.54 62
dada -1.34 71
Khalid -1.34 55
mparrault -1.32 42
donmars -1.31 56
boz -1.25 42
JP -1.11 70
redacted -1.09 90
deannebridget -1.06 80
tom.prigg -0.94 25
RCScheffers -0.91 45
nls -0.90 45
Rene -0.78 45
Censusguyz -0.76 50
ravel -0.75 81
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 55
Standard Deviation 17
62 66 4
In the top 50 Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 1
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 5
dkc -1.75 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
madre -1.54 2
dada -1.34 0
Khalid -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 16
donmars -1.31 3
boz -1.25 3
JP -1.11 0
redacted -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 5
tom.prigg -0.94 25
RCScheffers -0.91 5
nls -0.90 1
Rene -0.78 5
Censusguyz -0.76 10
ravel -0.75 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 1
Standard Deviation 5
5 3 -2
Between 51 and 60, inclusive Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
fifty-sixty -3.01 20
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 10
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 50
christianmaas -1.94 15
GeneH -1.83 15
einsteinjs -1.82 44
dkc -1.75 25
jeremylichtman -1.56 5
madre -1.54 21
dada -1.34 10
Khalid -1.34 35
mparrault -1.32 26
donmars -1.31 39
boz -1.25 21
JP -1.11 5
redacted -1.09 9
deannebridget -1.06 15
tom.prigg -0.94 50
RCScheffers -0.91 15
nls -0.90 14
Rene -0.78 15
Censusguyz -0.76 20
ravel -0.75 8
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 15
Standard Deviation 13
22 19 -3
IFP90. Akkuyu Suspension
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 100
clinton -2.84 50
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 90
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 87
Clairvoyance -1.94 80
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 58
dkc -1.75 80
GeneH -1.72 80
jeremylichtman -1.52 5
jkbick -1.49 90
Travist -1.47 90
austerity -1.40 70
madre -1.36 100
mparrault -1.32 89
lindsey -1.27 90
Anneinak -1.21 88
dada -1.12 25
redacted -1.09 40
donmars -1.07 39
deannebridget -1.06 80
Antacular -0.96 34
tom.prigg -0.94 85
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 82
Standard Deviation 26
84 90 6
IFP93. BRIC Growth
Four Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 1
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 1
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 0
Anneinak -1.46 0
Khalid -1.34 0
mparrault -1.32 1
boz -1.25 0
Dima K -1.22 0
JP -1.11 0
redacted -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 0
vox vox -0.98 0
tom.prigg -0.94 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 0
2 0 -2
None Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 0
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 61
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 0
Travist -1.54 0
Anneinak -1.46 25
Khalid -1.34 0
mparrault -1.32 0
boz -1.25 1
Dima K -1.22 0
JP -1.11 0
redacted -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 0
vox vox -0.98 0
tom.prigg -0.94 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 12
1 0 -1
Two Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 94
fifty-sixty -3.01 95
Jean-Pierre -2.93 75
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 8
Clairvoyance -2.08 80
christianmaas -1.94 90
GeneH -1.83 95
einsteinjs -1.82 98
cmeinel -1.81 100
dkc -1.75 95
austerity -1.60 100
jeremylichtman -1.56 35
Travist -1.54 80
Anneinak -1.46 0
Khalid -1.34 95
mparrault -1.32 94
boz -1.25 86
Dima K -1.22 99
JP -1.11 100
redacted -1.09 100
deannebridget -1.06 100
vox vox -0.98 98
tom.prigg -0.94 90
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 94
Standard Deviation 31
89 96 7
Three Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 4
fifty-sixty -3.01 5
Jean-Pierre -2.93 24
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 0
Mroochyslav -2.25 0
Clairvoyance -2.08 20
christianmaas -1.94 10
GeneH -1.83 5
einsteinjs -1.82 2
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 5
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 60
Travist -1.54 5
Anneinak -1.46 0
Khalid -1.34 5
mparrault -1.32 4
boz -1.25 9
Dima K -1.22 0
JP -1.11 0
redacted -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 0
vox vox -0.98 2
tom.prigg -0.94 0
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 3
Standard Deviation 12
5 3 -2
One Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
clinton -3.09 1
fifty-sixty -3.01 0
Jean-Pierre -2.93 0
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 100
Mroochyslav -2.25 31
Clairvoyance -2.08 0
christianmaas -1.94 0
GeneH -1.83 0
einsteinjs -1.82 0
cmeinel -1.81 0
dkc -1.75 0
austerity -1.60 0
jeremylichtman -1.56 5
Travist -1.54 15
Anneinak -1.46 75
Khalid -1.34 0
mparrault -1.32 1
boz -1.25 4
Dima K -1.22 1
JP -1.11 0
redacted -1.09 0
deannebridget -1.06 0
vox vox -0.98 0
tom.prigg -0.94 10
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 0
Standard Deviation 24
3 1 -2
IFP94. TIME off stand
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Delorean -1.38 1
einsteinjs -1.14 1
patrickmeehan5 -1.10 65
JP -0.80 10
Anneinak -0.71 11
Ossipon -0.69 35
BlackJackBones -0.66 17
GJDrew -0.63 24
clinton -0.62 60
Clairvoyance -0.54 15
slobodan -0.54 0
cdob63 -0.41 36
ravel -0.36 99
ckruger -0.35 25
dowser -0.28 25
sonac36 -0.27 10
Censusguyz -0.25 80
petth -0.21 60
tom.prigg -0.19 35
alistaircookie -0.17 0
JMODE -0.17 10
Spandrelbarca -0.17 2
Travist -0.16 15
000 -0.16 13
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 16
Standard Deviation 26
13 10 -3
IFP95. NLD President Myanmar
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.39 100
clinton -3.09 98
Jean-Pierre -2.93 90
patrickmeehan5 -2.30 65
Mroochyslav -2.25 71
Clairvoyance -2.08 90
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 85
GeneH -1.90 75
k13rkeg44rd -1.85 100
cmeinel -1.81 86
dkc -1.77 95
austerity -1.60 99
Travist -1.54 80
jkbick -1.49 90
dada -1.48 95
Anneinak -1.46 77
mparrault -1.41 80
Khalid -1.38 95
lindsey -1.27 90
boz -1.25 66
nls -1.15 85
redacted -1.09 99
deannebridget -1.06 90
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 90
Standard Deviation 10
91 90 -1
IFP96. Foreign Legion to Syria
Yes Current Update Diff
Forecaster Accuracy Forecast
Falconer -4.20 0
Jean-Pierre -2.89 15
clinton -2.84 25
Mroochyslav -2.20 37
patrickmeehan5 -2.14 75
slobodan -2.02 100
christianmaas -1.94 40
Clairvoyance -1.94 60
Raisinville -1.91 55
dkc -1.75 50
GeneH -1.72 30
jeremylichtman -1.52 1
jkbick -1.49 75
Travist -1.47 20
madre -1.36 85
mparrault -1.32 40
boz -1.25 50
Anneinak -1.21 66
dada -1.12 25
redacted -1.09 60
donmars -1.07 25
deannebridget -1.06 15
fatalis -1.01 10
Antacular -0.96 20
# Forecasters 24
Median Forecast 38
Standard Deviation 26
48 35 -13
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2 thoughts on “Herd-following Tuesday morning

    1. Each comment in the Activity feed has a “link” button. The link IDs are serial, as are the user ID’s you see in the URL when you look at a user’s profile. These and the web page content provide an API of sorts.

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