To do: Clustering

For a given question we pick forecasters who have beat the crowd on all related questions.  Then we weight each by their sum of accuracy on the related questions.

Let the forecaster weight be the Y axis and forecast from 0 to 100 be the axis. Now divide predictions into 2 clusters on this plane. Sum the weight of each forecast in a cluster. The median forecaster value of the cluster with the highest sum of forecaster weights is the forecast!

I can think these up all day long.  They’re probably all equally nonsensical. In this case I am looking for an application of SciPy kmeans2. This will also give me the opportunity to generate some authoritative-looking pictures of my nonsense, along these lines:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/09/ClusterAnalysis_Mouse.svg/450px-ClusterAnalysis_Mouse.svg.png

Advertisements

One thought on “To do: Clustering

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s