Here’s where I should be tonight if I want to follow the smart crowd

Outliers in red. I wonder if I should delete extreme outliers from my crowd estimate? Gut answer: Yes, if the prediction is stale (more than say 10 days old).  NOTE: I’m not ignoring outliers now, but may ignore them in next version of this post, after watching Homeland. The outliers marked here are 1 standard deviation away from the median. I may play with this and go for 1.5 SDs or 2 SDs, depending on my mood.

IFP: Branch Smart crowd vote My current forecast I should update this to Diff
IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16: 6.40 or more
Jean-Pierre 95
Falconer 5
austerity 98
Anneinak 100
Clairvoyance 100
Raisinville 100
Mroochyslav 79
patrickmeehan5 95
clinton 100
yaifuz26 5
malcmur 68
cmeinel 90
100 74 -26
IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16: Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive
Jean-Pierre 0
Falconer 80
austerity 0
Anneinak 0
Clairvoyance 0
Raisinville 0
Mroochyslav 0
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 0
yaifuz26 85
malcmur 0
cmeinel 0
0 16 16
IFP31. WTI: Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive
Jean-Pierre 50
austerity 10
Anneinak 34
hyperionok 20
scholarandcat 35
Clairvoyance 50
Raisinville 100
Mroochyslav 41
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 10
yaifuz26 45
malcmur 85
49 38 -11
IFP45. Syrian refugees: 1 million or more
Jean-Pierre 90
Falconer 0
austerity 75
hyperionok 35
yaifuz26 35
Anneinak 88
malcmur 40
scholarandcat 97
cmeinel 75
Raisinville 70
Clairvoyance 50
patrickmeehan5 0
72 63 -9
IFP1. USDCNY 1JAN16: More than 6.35 but less than 6.40
Jean-Pierre 5
Falconer 15
austerity 2
Anneinak 0
Clairvoyance 0
Raisinville 0
Mroochyslav 21
patrickmeehan5 5
clinton 0
yaifuz26 5
malcmur 32
cmeinel 10
0 7 7
IFP90. Akkuyu Suspension: Yes
Falconer 100
austerity 70
Anneinak 88
cmeinel 75
Clairvoyance 75
patrickmeehan5 90
clinton 50
ravel 69
k13rkeg44rd 100
slobodan 100
petth 85
dowser 95
77 83 6
IFP25. Walking Dead: Glenn
Delorean 15
scholarandcat 15
JP 45
Raisinville 20
NickLutz 12
Clairvoyance 45
dada 40
patrickmeehan5 99
kormac 0
UnderwaterPutin 34
malcmur 32
GJDrew 32
42 37 -5
IFP81. GOP nominee: Marco Rubio
Raisinville 10
scholarandcat 20
GeneH 30
Anneinak 23
dada 75
patrickmeehan5 80
praedico 80
Clairvoyance 30
JJMLP 55
Khalid 45
austerity 35
Jean-Pierre 4
45 41 -4
IFP25. Walking Dead: All of the above will survive season 6
Delorean 60
scholarandcat 27
JP 40
Raisinville 8
NickLutz 50
Clairvoyance 35
dada 40
patrickmeehan5 0
kormac 100
UnderwaterPutin 1
malcmur 11
GJDrew 30
25 29 4
IFP95. NLD President Myanmar: Yes
Jean-Pierre 90
Falconer 100
austerity 99
Anneinak 77
Clairvoyance 90
Mroochyslav 71
patrickmeehan5 65
clinton 98
Khalid 95
dada 95
cmeinel 86
GeneH 75
84 87 3
IFP93. BRIC Growth: Three
Jean-Pierre 24
austerity 0
Anneinak 0
Clairvoyance 20
Mroochyslav 0
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 4
cmeinel 13
ravel 17
boz 9
Khalid 5
jeremylichtman 60
14 12 -2
IFP81. GOP nominee: Ted Cruz
Raisinville 5
scholarandcat 20
GeneH 40
Anneinak 23
dada 20
patrickmeehan5 0
praedico 20
Clairvoyance 26
JJMLP 10
Khalid 15
austerity 35
Jean-Pierre 20
15 17 2
IFP57. Russia food embargo: More than five, but less than all
Jean-Pierre 6
Anneinak 0
hyperionok 40
Clairvoyance 0
Raisinville 30
Mroochyslav 0
patrickmeehan5 100
clinton 50
yaifuz26 15
malcmur 0
cmeinel 7
974david 15
26 24 -2
IFP38. Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?: Yes
Raisinville 8
scholarandcat 35
GeneH 0
cmeinel 46
Anneinak 40
dada 0
patrickmeehan5 0
praedico 0
JJMLP 25
austerity 10
Jean-Pierre 30
malcmur 35
19 17 -2
IFP31. WTI: Less than $34.00 per barrel
Jean-Pierre 50
austerity 90
Anneinak 66
hyperionok 5
scholarandcat 65
Clairvoyance 50
Raisinville 0
Mroochyslav 59
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 90
yaifuz26 10
malcmur 15
51 53 2
IFP93. BRIC Growth: Two
Jean-Pierre 75
austerity 100
Anneinak 0
Clairvoyance 80
Mroochyslav 8
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 94
cmeinel 78
ravel 83
boz 86
Khalid 95
jeremylichtman 35
59 60 1
IFP89. Iran Competitiveness: Between 51 and 60, inclusive
Mroochyslav 0
patrickmeehan5 10
petth 15
ravel 8
boz 21
donmars 39
Khalid 35
dada 10
jeremylichtman 5
einsteinjs 44
GeneH 15
fifty-sixty 20
19 18 -1
IFP88. Superbowl: A team from the National Football Conference
Delorean 75
scholarandcat 35
GeneH 50
Raisinville 50
Clairvoyance 38
patrickmeehan5 60
einsteinjs 78
kormac 100
malcmur 45
austerity 60
mparrault 46
Travist 35
59 58 -1
IFP87. IMF: Someone else from Europe
Jean-Pierre 20
austerity 5
Anneinak 6
malcmur 3
cmeinel 7
Raisinville 5
Clairvoyance 30
patrickmeehan5 10
Mroochyslav 0
clinton 2
ravel 10
boz 17
10 9 -1
IFP78. Panama Canal: Yes
Jean-Pierre 40
austerity 60
Anneinak 33
Clairvoyance 40
Raisinville 0
Mroochyslav 41
patrickmeehan5 20
malcmur 25
cmeinel 38
974david 65
petth 75
ravel 11
38 37 -1
IFP77. NATO 4 or 5: No
Jean-Pierre 90
Anneinak 0
malcmur 62
cmeinel 68
Clairvoyance 50
patrickmeehan5 40
Mroochyslav 59
ravel 100
klin 65
slobodan 0
974david 85
fifty-sixty 65
59 58 -1
IFP70. NATO 4: Yes
Jean-Pierre 40
Falconer 0
austerity 65
hyperionok 35
yaifuz26 5
malcmur 45
cmeinel 55
Raisinville 20
Clairvoyance 60
patrickmeehan5 20
Mroochyslav 41
clinton 82
36 37 1
IFP62. KSA: Yes, Someone else
Jean-Pierre 4
Falconer 0
hyperionok 2
austerity 10
yaifuz26 2
Anneinak 3
Clairvoyance 0
Raisinville 0
Mroochyslav 0
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 15
JJMLP 0
4 3 -1
IFP57. Russia food embargo: Between 1 and 5, inclusive
Jean-Pierre 15
Anneinak 9
hyperionok 40
Clairvoyance 25
Raisinville 40
Mroochyslav 41
patrickmeehan5 0
clinton 9
yaifuz26 65
malcmur 19
cmeinel 32
974david 15
22 23 1
IFP56. Winds of Winter: Yes
Delorean 1
scholarandcat 20
praedico 65
Raisinville 40
JJMLP 25
NickLutz 50
MAA414 33
Clairvoyance 25
Heffalump 50
Khalid 35
patrickmeehan5 100
Antacular 5
41 40 -1
IFP47. iPhones: Yes
Delorean 95
praedico 85
GeneH 100
Raisinville 100
JJMLP 65
NickLutz 70
MAA414 75
Clairvoyance 80
Heffalump 82
cmeinel 86
Khalid 85
dada 100
87 88 1
IFP46. Bitcoin: More than 250,000
austerity 70
yaifuz26 5
Anneinak 88
malcmur 11
cmeinel 30
Raisinville 5
Clairvoyance 50
patrickmeehan5 0
Mroochyslav 23
clinton 82
ravel 15
boz 48
38 37 -1
IFP25. Walking Dead: Daryl
Delorean 10
scholarandcat 5
JP 0
Raisinville 24
NickLutz 15
Clairvoyance 0
dada 0
patrickmeehan5 0
kormac 0
UnderwaterPutin 55
malcmur 18
GJDrew 20
12 11 -1
IFP25. Walking Dead: Carol
Delorean 15
scholarandcat 24
JP 15
Raisinville 0
NickLutz 18
Clairvoyance 20
dada 10
patrickmeehan5 0
kormac 0
UnderwaterPutin 5
malcmur 19
GJDrew 12
11 10 -1
IFP25. Walking Dead: Carl
Delorean 0
scholarandcat 24
JP 0
Raisinville 24
NickLutz 5
Clairvoyance 0
dada 10
patrickmeehan5 0
kormac 0
UnderwaterPutin 5
malcmur 16
GJDrew 3
7 6 -1
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