Super Friday Night

For each open question, I found the forecasters who

  • Forecast the most related questions
  • Beat the crowd in the branch resolved as correct of every related closed question forecast
  • Had the most negative sum of accuracy

IFP1. Forecasting USDCNY 1JAN16

Branch: Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 0 0.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 80 13.22
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 0 0.00
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 2 0.16
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 29 2.46
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 85 3.60
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.81 6% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 19
Prior Forecast 0

Branch: 6.40 or more

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 95 10.46
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 5 0.83
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 95 5.71
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 100 5.50
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 100 7.83
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 90 7.14
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 71 6.02
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 95 8.22
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 100 11.61
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.21
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 68 3.66
cmeinel 7 -1.81 6% 84 5.72
Team Forecast 72
Prior Forecast 90

Branch: More than 6.35 but less than 6.40

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 5 0.55
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 15 2.48
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 5 0.30
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 8 0.63
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 5 0.43
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.21
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 32 1.72
cmeinel 7 -1.81 6% 16 1.09
Team Forecast 7
Prior Forecast 10

Branch: Less than 6.30

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 0 0.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 0 0.00
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.21
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.81 6% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 0

IFP6. Forecasting Asian Trilateral

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 0 0.00
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 2 0.13
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 0 0.00
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 0 0.00
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 5

IFP7. Forecasting Jason Rezaian

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 25 3.13
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 100 18.21
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 65 3.96
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 75 4.79
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 65 3.18
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 66 3.47
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 12 0.75
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 37 2.44
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 57 4.47
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 50 4.15
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 60 5.04
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 50 4.64
Team Forecast 58
Prior Forecast 56

IFP8. Forecasting NK LICBM

  • 375 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Geopolitics,International,Security
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
    China IPO Finance,International
    Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    IAEA Parchin International,Security
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
    Montenegro Geopolitics,International
    PSUV International,Politics
    Iran launch International,Security

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.921

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 50 6.26
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 87 15.84
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 60 3.66
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 75 4.79
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.24
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 88 4.63
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 27 1.68
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 55 3.63
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 70 5.49
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 45 3.74
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 75 6.30
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 80 7.42
Team Forecast 63
Prior Forecast 56

IFP9. Forecasting Venezuela Default

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Falconer 10 -4.39 17% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 15 0.96
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 33 1.93
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 45 2.66
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 5 0.33
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 10 0.84
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 61 5.51
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 99 9.13
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 8 0.99
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 12 0.54
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 5 0.29
Team Forecast 23
Prior Forecast 20

IFP12. Forecasting OPEC quota

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 2 0.22
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 1 0.06
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 100 5.53
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 5 0.28
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 23 1.96
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 1 0.09
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 45 1.92
Team Forecast 10
Prior Forecast 14

IFP13. Forecasting Venice Lesbophobes

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Falconer 9 -4.20 19% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 19 1.22
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 55 2.83
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 0 0.00
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 7 0.46
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 18 1.57
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 20 1.77
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 99 9.66
clinton 7 -2.84 12% 4 0.52
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 5 0.17
ed3 6 -1.47 6% 10 0.67
Manfred 6 -1.49 6% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 18
Prior Forecast 19

IFP14. Forecasting Africa polio

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 75 9.39
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 100 18.21
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 63 3.84
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 90 5.75
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 15 0.73
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 55 2.89
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 38 2.36
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 40 2.64
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 62 4.86
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 67 5.56
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 40 3.36
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 5 0.46
Team Forecast 60
Prior Forecast 61

IFP15. Forecasting Assad Out

  • 679 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Geopolitics,International,Security
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
    China IPO Finance,International
    Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    IAEA Parchin International,Security
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
    Montenegro Geopolitics,International
    PSUV International,Politics
    Iran launch International,Security

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.921

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 10 1.25
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 95 17.30
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 15 0.91
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 15 0.96
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 25 1.22
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 55 2.89
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 46 2.86
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 25 1.65
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 56 4.39
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 20 1.66
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 50 4.20
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 15 1.39
Team Forecast 40
Prior Forecast 44

IFP18. Forecasting TTIP

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 15 1.66
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 28 1.69
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 5 0.28
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 40 2.23
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 28 1.73
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 20 1.57
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 25 1.99
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 65 5.54
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 99 8.61
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 68 7.94
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 35 1.49
Team Forecast 34
Prior Forecast 100

IFP19. Forecasting Iran G7 party

  • 410 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Geopolitics,International,Security
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
    China IPO Finance,International
    Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    IAEA Parchin International,Security
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
    Montenegro Geopolitics,International
    PSUV International,Politics
    Iran launch International,Security

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.921

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 50 6.26
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 95 17.30
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 81 4.94
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 75 4.79
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 25 1.22
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 55 2.89
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 71 4.41
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 48 3.17
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 50 3.92
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 40 3.32
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 30 2.52
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 99 9.18
Team Forecast 63
Prior Forecast 70

IFP24. Forecasting Fed Funds 2015

  • 1094 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Economics,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.814

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
scholar\u0026cat 6 -0.48 4% 92 4.49
Delorean 6 -1.38 14% 100 14.10
JJMLP 5 -0.37 3% 70 2.65
praedico 5 -0.53 5% 100 5.45
Heffalump 5 -0.71 7% 100 7.23
GeneH 5 -0.73 7% 100 7.44
JP 5 -0.80 8% 98 7.98
Raisinville 5 -1.01 10% 100 10.29
wlmsears 5 -1.38 14% 80 11.30
patrickmeehan5 5 -1.51 15% 99 15.28
NickLutz 4 -0.45 4% 92 4.20
MAA414 4 -0.45 4% 85 3.88
Team Forecast 94
Prior Forecast 95

IFP25. Forecasting Walking Dead

  • 189 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Entertainment,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.674

Branch: Glenn

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 15 2.55
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 24 1.23
JP 5 -0.80 9% 85 8.36
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 20 2.49
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 12 0.66
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 45 3.02
dada 4 -0.75 9% 40 3.73
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 99 13.40
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 34 1.76
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 32 2.11
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 32 2.50
Team Forecast 41
Prior Forecast 34

Branch: All of the above will survive season 6

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 60 10.22
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 22 1.13
JP 5 -0.80 9% 0 0.00
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 8 0.99
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 50 2.76
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 35 2.35
dada 4 -0.75 9% 40 3.73
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 0 0.00
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 100 0.91
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 1 0.05
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 11 0.73
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 30 2.35
Team Forecast 25
Prior Forecast 29

Branch: Rick

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 5 0.26
JP 5 -0.80 9% 0 0.00
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 24 2.98
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 0 0.00
dada 4 -0.75 9% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 1 0.14
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 0 0.00
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 4 0.26
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 3 0.23
Team Forecast 3
Prior Forecast 3

Branch: Carl

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 22 1.13
JP 5 -0.80 9% 0 0.00
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 24 2.98
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 5 0.28
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 0 0.00
dada 4 -0.75 9% 10 0.93
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 0 0.00
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 5 0.26
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 16 1.06
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 3 0.23
Team Forecast 6
Prior Forecast 8

Branch: Carol

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 15 2.55
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 22 1.13
JP 5 -0.80 9% 15 1.47
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 0 0.00
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 18 0.99
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 20 1.34
dada 4 -0.75 9% 10 0.93
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 0 0.00
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 5 0.26
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 19 1.25
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 12 0.94
Team Forecast 10
Prior Forecast 14

Branch: Daryl

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 10 1.70
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 5 0.26
JP 5 -0.80 9% 0 0.00
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 24 2.98
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 15 0.83
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 0 0.00
dada 4 -0.75 9% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 13% 0 0.00
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 55 2.85
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 18 1.19
GJDrew 3 -0.63 7% 20 1.56
Team Forecast 11
Prior Forecast 12

IFP30. Forecasting Grexit

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 3 0.33
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 15 0.91
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 25 1.39
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 15 0.93
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 7% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 5 0.43
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 4 0.47
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 1 0.04
Team Forecast 4
Prior Forecast 3

IFP31. Forecasting WTI

Branch: Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 12% 50 6.23
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 10 0.68
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 50 3.11
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 20 1.25
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 40 2.78
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 50 4.43
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 100 8.98
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 41 3.93
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 13% 10 1.31
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 45 2.16
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 100 6.10
Team Forecast 40
Prior Forecast 50

Branch: Less than $34.00 per barrel

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 12% 50 6.23
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 90 6.12
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 50 3.11
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 5 0.31
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 60 4.18
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 50 4.43
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 59 5.66
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 13% 90 11.83
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 10 0.48
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 42
Prior Forecast 50

IFP33. Forecasting Oil export ban

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 13% 100 13.39
scholar\u0026cat 8 -0.68 4% 48 2.09
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.47 15% 99 15.74
GeneH 7 -1.04 6% 90 6.04
austerity 7 -1.12 7% 80 5.75
cmeinel 7 -1.26 8% 64 5.20
Jean-Pierre 7 -1.32 8% 70 5.95
malcmur 7 -1.33 8% 36 3.08
Anneinak 7 -1.44 9% 88 8.13
dada 7 -1.59 10% 95 9.74
praedico 6 -0.56 3% 100 3.57
petth 6 -0.65 4% 75 3.15
Team Forecast 81
Prior Forecast 61

IFP34. Forecasting South China ADIZ

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 20 2.50
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 72 13.11
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 45 2.74
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 55 3.51
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 15 0.73
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 44 2.31
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 33 2.05
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 29 1.91
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 3 0.25
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 30 2.52
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 89 8.25
Team Forecast 39
Prior Forecast 41

IFP35. Forecasting Jurassic World

  • 432 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Entertainment,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.649

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 0 0.00
praedico 5 -0.53 6% 0 0.00
GeneH 5 -0.73 9% 0 0.00
JP 5 -0.80 10% 0 0.00
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 0 0.00
JJMLP 4 -0.31 3% 0 0.00
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 2 0.11
MAA414 4 -0.45 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 0 0.00
Heffalump 4 -0.60 7% 0 0.00
cmeinel 4 -0.60 7% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 0

IFP36. Forecasting Adnan Syed

  • 102 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Entertainment,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.595

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 10 0.58
praedico 5 -0.53 7% 60 4.48
Raisinville 5 -1.01 14% 10 1.41
NickLutz 4 -0.45 6% 20 1.25
MAA414 4 -0.45 6% 20 1.25
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 7% 10 0.76
Heffalump 4 -0.60 8% 15 1.26
cmeinel 4 -0.60 8% 11 0.93
madre 4 -0.96 13% 3 0.40
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 15% 5 0.77
kormac 3 -0.07 1% 0 0.00
UnderwaterPutin 3 -0.42 5% 5 0.29
Team Forecast 13
Prior Forecast 11

For each open question, I found the forecasters who

  • Forecast the most related questions
  • Beat the crowd in the branch resolved as correct of every related closed question forecast
  • Had the most negative sum of accuracy

IFP38. Forecasting Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

  • 675 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Politics,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    World Series Sports,US
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    Biden Politics,US
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Twitter CEO Business,US
    PSUV International,Politics

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.228

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 14% 8 1.13
scholarandcat 7 -0.62 4% 42 1.75
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 20 1.42
cmeinel 7 -1.26 8% 46 3.94
Anneinak 7 -1.44 9% 50 4.87
dada 7 -1.59 10% 10 1.08
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 13% 0 0.00
praedico 6 -0.56 3% 0 0.00
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 25 1.34
austerity 6 -1.03 6% 10 0.70
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 50 3.58
malcmur 6 -1.22 8% 35 2.90
Team Forecast 22
Prior Forecast 0

IFP39. Forecasting Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

  • 596 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Politics,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    World Series Sports,US
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    Biden Politics,US
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Twitter CEO Business,US
    PSUV International,Politics

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.251

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 13% 55 7.63
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 46 1.88
GeneH 7 -1.04 6% 60 4.17
cmeinel 7 -1.26 8% 60 5.05
Anneinak 7 -1.44 9% 44 4.21
dada 7 -1.59 10% 89 9.45
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 13% 5 0.69
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 4% 60 2.78
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 55 3.37
austerity 6 -1.03 6% 58 3.96
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 35 2.46
malcmur 6 -1.22 8% 82 6.68
Team Forecast 52
Prior Forecast 50

IFP40. Forecasting IRA

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 0 0.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 17% 0 0.00
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 40 2.34
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 9 -1.66 6% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 1 0.05
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
JJMLP 7 -1.30 5% 15 0.76
Team Forecast 3
Prior Forecast 0

IFP44. Forecasting Goodell

  • 227 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Sports,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.781

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 14% 99 14.55
JP 5 -0.80 8% 100 8.49
Raisinville 5 -1.01 10% 99 10.63
NickLutz 4 -0.45 4% 90 4.28
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 5% 95 5.50
Heffalump 4 -0.60 6% 94 6.01
cmeinel 4 -0.60 6% 100 6.43
dada 4 -0.75 8% 99 7.96
madre 4 -0.96 10% 100 10.23
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 11% 100 11.69
einsteinjs 4 -1.14 12% 99 12.00
Antacular 3 -0.06 0% 99 0.63
Team Forecast 98
Prior Forecast 97

IFP45. Forecasting Syrian refugees

Branch: More than 710,000 but less than 1 million

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 5 0.63
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 25 1.52
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 45 2.88
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 45 2.20
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 12 0.63
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 60 3.73
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 3 0.20
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 65 5.10
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 50 4.15
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 50 4.20
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 85 7.88
Team Forecast 33
Prior Forecast 0

Branch: 1 million or more

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 95 11.89
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 75 4.57
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 35 2.24
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 35 1.71
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 88 4.63
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 40 2.48
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 97 6.40
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 35 2.75
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 50 4.15
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 50 4.20
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 45
Prior Forecast 100

IFP46. Forecasting Bitcoin

Branch: More than 250,000

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 8 -1.40 7% 70 4.91
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 5 0.28
Anneinak 7 -1.21 6% 88 5.33
malcmur 7 -1.43 7% 11 0.79
cmeinel 7 -1.81 9% 30 2.71
Raisinville 7 -1.91 9% 5 0.48
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 9% 50 4.84
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 10% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 37 4.06
clinton 7 -2.84 14% 82 11.65
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 15 0.56
boz 6 -1.25 6% 48 3.01
Team Forecast 38
Prior Forecast 44

Branch: Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 8 -1.40 7% 30 2.11
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 20 1.13
Anneinak 7 -1.21 6% 12 0.73
malcmur 7 -1.43 7% 86 6.15
cmeinel 7 -1.81 9% 65 5.87
Raisinville 7 -1.91 9% 70 6.70
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 9% 50 4.84
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 10% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 61 6.70
clinton 7 -2.84 14% 18 2.56
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 70 2.61
boz 6 -1.25 6% 43 2.69
Team Forecast 42
Prior Forecast 39

Branch: Less than 125,000

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 8 -1.40 7% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 75 4.22
Anneinak 7 -1.21 6% 0 0.00
malcmur 7 -1.43 7% 3 0.21
cmeinel 7 -1.81 9% 5 0.45
Raisinville 7 -1.91 9% 25 2.39
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 9% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 10% 100 10.68
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 2 0.22
clinton 7 -2.84 14% 0 0.00
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 15 0.56
boz 6 -1.25 6% 9 0.56
Team Forecast 19
Prior Forecast 17

IFP47. Forecasting iPhones

  • 391 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Business,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.665

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 95 16.39
praedico 5 -0.53 6% 85 5.67
GeneH 5 -0.73 9% 85 7.74
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 100 12.60
JJMLP 4 -0.31 3% 65 2.50
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 70 3.91
MAA414 4 -0.45 5% 75 4.19
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 80 5.43
Heffalump 4 -0.60 7% 82 6.15
cmeinel 4 -0.60 7% 95 7.17
Khalid 4 -0.65 8% 60 4.86
dada 4 -0.75 9% 100 9.44
Team Forecast 86
Prior Forecast 87

IFP49. Forecasting USG shutdown

  • 613 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Politics,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    World Series Sports,US
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    Biden Politics,US
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Twitter CEO Business,US
    PSUV International,Politics

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.235

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 14% 30 4.21
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.26 8% 15 1.28
Anneinak 7 -1.44 9% 0 0.00
dada 7 -1.59 10% 3 0.32
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 13% 1 0.14
praedico 6 -0.56 3% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 4% 0 0.00
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 5 0.27
austerity 6 -1.03 6% 30 2.08
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 15 1.07
malcmur 6 -1.22 8% 18 1.49
Team Forecast 10
Prior Forecast 8

IFP50. Forecasting BOJ easing

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 1 0.11
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 95 15.90
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 5 0.30
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 35 1.97
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 10 0.79
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 11 0.94
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 80 7.01
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 65 2.79
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 8 0.44
Team Forecast 30
Prior Forecast 24

IFP51. Forecasting IAEA access

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 25 3.13
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 27 1.65
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 85 5.43
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 35 1.71
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 17 0.89
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 35 2.17
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 12 0.79
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 20 1.57
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 5 0.42
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 60 5.04
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 5 0.46
Team Forecast 23
Prior Forecast 12

IFP55. Forecasting Malaysia controls

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 33 2.64
Anneinak 8 -1.46 7% 11 0.81
hyperionok 8 -1.47 7% 65 4.80
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 10% 15 1.56
Raisinville 8 -2.11 10% 4 0.42
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 11% 60 6.92
clinton 8 -3.09 15% 3 0.46
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 20 1.13
malcmur 7 -1.43 7% 7 0.50
cmeinel 7 -1.81 9% 10 0.91
petth 6 -0.74 3% 10 0.37
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 4 0.15
Team Forecast 20
Prior Forecast 16

IFP56. Forecasting Winds of Winter

  • 327 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Entertainment,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.623

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 18% 1 0.18
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 20 1.11
praedico 5 -0.53 7% 65 4.63
Raisinville 5 -1.01 13% 40 5.39
JJMLP 4 -0.31 4% 25 1.03
NickLutz 4 -0.45 5% 50 2.98
MAA414 4 -0.45 5% 51 3.05
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 7% 25 1.81
Heffalump 4 -0.60 8% 50 4.01
Khalid 4 -0.65 8% 35 3.03
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 14% 100 14.66
Antacular 3 -0.06 0% 5 0.04
Team Forecast 41
Prior Forecast 42

IFP57. Forecasting Russia food embargo

Branch: More than five, but less than all

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 6 0.71
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 40 2.39
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 30 2.56
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 100 9.31
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 50 6.25
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 15 0.68
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 7 0.51
974david 7 -2.65 10% 15 1.61
Team Forecast 24
Prior Forecast 32

Branch: 0

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 75 8.88
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 91 5.39
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 15 0.89
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 75 6.32
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 25 2.13
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 59 5.38
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 40 5.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 15 0.68
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 68 3.94
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 58 4.25
974david 7 -2.65 10% 55 5.90
Team Forecast 48
Prior Forecast 49

Branch: All

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 4 0.47
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 5 0.30
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 5 0.43
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 1 0.12
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.23
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 13 0.75
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 3 0.22
974david 7 -2.65 10% 15 1.61
Team Forecast 4
Prior Forecast 4

Branch: Between 1 and 5, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 15 1.78
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 9 0.53
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 40 2.39
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 25 2.11
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 40 3.41
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 9% 41 3.74
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 9% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 9 1.12
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 65 2.96
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 19 1.10
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 32 2.34
974david 7 -2.65 10% 15 1.61
Team Forecast 23
Prior Forecast 15

IFP61. Forecasting Syria no-fly zone

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 0 0.00
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 5 0.32
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.24
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 11 0.58
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 1 0.06
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 0 0.00
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 2 0.17
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 74 6.86
Team Forecast 8
Prior Forecast 12

IFP62. Forecasting KSA

Branch: Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 0 0.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 5 0.25
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 1 0.08
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 10 0.87
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 1
Prior Forecast 2

Branch: Yes, Someone else

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 4 0.44
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 2 0.11
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 10 0.61
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 2 0.10
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 3 0.17
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 15 1.76
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 3
Prior Forecast 5

Branch: Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 4 0.44
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 10 0.61
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 1 0.05
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 2 0.11
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 2 0.16
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 17 1.45
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 40 1.97
Team Forecast 4
Prior Forecast 2

Branch: Yes, Mohammed bin Salman

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 2 0.22
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 20 1.21
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 2 0.10
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 1 0.06
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 2 0.16
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 0 0.00
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 5 0.25
Team Forecast 1
Prior Forecast 2

Branch: No

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 90 10.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 100 16.67
hyperionok 9 -1.51 5% 98 5.60
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 60 3.64
yaifuz26 8 -1.33 5% 90 4.55
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 94 5.22
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 100 7.90
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 95 7.60
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 83 7.10
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 90 7.86
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 85 9.96
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 55 2.71
Team Forecast 88
Prior Forecast 89

IFP63. Forecasting VW

  • 730 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Business,Environment,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.733

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
praedico 5 -0.53 6% 20 1.21
GeneH 5 -0.73 8% 5 0.41
JP 5 -0.80 9% 2 0.18
Raisinville 5 -1.01 11% 5 0.57
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 15 0.92
Heffalump 4 -0.60 6% 15 1.02
cmeinel 4 -0.60 6% 40 2.74
dada 4 -0.75 8% 18 1.54
madre 4 -0.96 10% 10 1.09
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 12% 99 12.33
wlmsears 4 -1.12 12% 20 2.55
Antacular 3 -0.06 0% 15 0.10
Team Forecast 24
Prior Forecast 41

IFP64. Forecasting Putin Abe

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 20 2.50
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 5 0.91
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 30 1.83
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 60 3.83
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 65 3.18
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 11 0.58
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 37 2.30
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 30 1.98
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 22 1.73
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 5 0.42
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 20 1.68
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 33 3.06
Team Forecast 23
Prior Forecast 19

IFP66. Forecasting RCEP

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 0 0.00
Falconer 10 -4.39 17% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 0 0.00
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 8 -1.63 6% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 8% 0 0.00
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 3 0.27
clinton 8 -3.09 12% 0 0.00
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 10 0.44
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 0

IFP70. Forecasting NATO 4

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 11% 40 4.55
Falconer 9 -4.20 16% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 5% 40 2.22
hyperionok 8 -1.47 5% 35 2.03
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.22
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 45 2.54
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 55 3.92
Raisinville 7 -1.91 7% 20 1.51
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 7% 60 4.58
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 8% 20 1.69
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 8% 41 3.55
clinton 7 -2.84 11% 82 9.20
Team Forecast 36
Prior Forecast 44

IFP74. Forecasting PA Israel halt

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 25 3.03
Falconer 9 -4.20 17% 0 0.00
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 35 2.16
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 4% 5 0.24
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 12 0.72
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 10 0.76
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 30 2.41
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 20 1.63
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 8% 33 2.96
clinton 7 -2.84 11% 15 1.79
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 13 0.41
Khalid 6 -1.34 5% 10 0.56
Team Forecast 16
Prior Forecast 14

IFP76. Forecasting NK nuke test

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 13% 30 4.11
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 65 4.34
hyperionok 8 -1.47 6% 80 5.60
yaifuz26 7 -1.13 5% 38 2.03
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 59 3.40
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 45 3.06
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 7% 52 3.76
cmeinel 7 -1.81 8% 55 4.73
Raisinville 7 -1.91 9% 40 3.64
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 9% 60 5.52
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 10% 51 5.18
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 41 4.28
Team Forecast 49
Prior Forecast 56

IFP77. Forecasting NATO 4 or 5

Branch: Yes, only Article 5

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 2 0.25
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 0 0.00
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 8 0.50
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 5 0.40
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 9% 41 3.94
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
klin 6 -1.09 4% 0 0.00
slobodan 6 -2.02 8% 0 0.00
974david 6 -2.37 10% 0 0.00
fifty-sixty 6 -3.01 13% 10 1.32
Team Forecast 6
Prior Forecast 4

Branch: Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 2 0.25
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 50 2.65
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 5 0.31
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 5 0.40
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 10 0.94
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 9% 0 0.00
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
klin 6 -1.09 4% 5 0.24
slobodan 6 -2.02 8% 100 8.83
974david 6 -2.37 10% 15 1.56
fifty-sixty 6 -3.01 13% 10 1.32
Team Forecast 16
Prior Forecast 21

Branch: Yes, only Article 4

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 6 0.76
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 50 2.65
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 25 1.57
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 22 1.74
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 50 4.24
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 50 4.68
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 9% 0 0.00
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
klin 6 -1.09 4% 30 1.43
slobodan 6 -2.02 8% 0 0.00
974david 6 -2.37 10% 0 0.00
fifty-sixty 6 -3.01 13% 15 1.98
Team Forecast 19
Prior Forecast 21

Branch: No

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 90 11.37
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 0 0.00
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 62 3.89
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 68 5.38
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 50 4.24
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 40 3.74
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 9% 59 5.67
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 100 3.26
klin 6 -1.09 4% 65 3.09
slobodan 6 -2.02 8% 0 0.00
974david 6 -2.37 10% 85 8.84
fifty-sixty 6 -3.01 13% 65 8.56
Team Forecast 58
Prior Forecast 54

IFP78. Forecasting Panama Canal

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 40 5.30
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 60 4.33
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 33 2.18
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 50 4.71
Raisinville 8 -2.11 9% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 41 4.18
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 10% 20 2.08
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 25 1.62
cmeinel 7 -1.81 8% 38 3.11
974david 7 -2.65 11% 65 7.79
petth 6 -0.74 3% 75 2.50
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 11 0.37
Team Forecast 38
Prior Forecast 34

IFP79. Forecasting Putin Nuke Summit

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 11% 15 1.70
Falconer 9 -4.20 16% 0 0.00
austerity 8 -1.40 5% 27 1.49
Anneinak 7 -1.21 4% 22 1.05
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 15 0.84
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 5% 10 0.60
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 10 0.71
Raisinville 7 -1.91 7% 30 2.25
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 7% 5 0.38
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 8% 20 1.68
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 8% 59 5.08
clinton 7 -2.84 11% 9 1.00
Team Forecast 16
Prior Forecast 27

IFP80. Forecasting Brexit

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 11% 70 7.78
Falconer 10 -4.39 16% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 6% 60 3.64
Anneinak 8 -1.46 5% 22 1.22
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 7% 15 1.19
Raisinville 8 -2.11 8% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 8% 59 5.05
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 8% 90 7.87
clinton 8 -3.09 11% 79 9.26
JJMLP 7 -1.30 4% 35 1.72
Khalid 7 -1.38 5% 10 0.53
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 22 1.20
Team Forecast 39
Prior Forecast 31

IFP81. Forecasting GOP nominee

  • 548 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Politics,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    AKP Turkey International,Politics
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    Argentina President International,Politics
    Sejm International,Politics
    World Series Sports,US
    JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
    Biden Politics,US
    Canada PM International,Politics
    Twitter CEO Business,US
    PSUV International,Politics

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -1.156

Branch: Jeb Bush

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 46 6.90
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 7 0.31
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 15 1.13
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 11 1.14
dada 7 -1.59 11% 10 1.15
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 10 1.48
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 22 1.10
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 0 0.00
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 40 2.66
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 0 0.00
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 15
Prior Forecast 13

Branch: Donald Trump

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 2 0.30
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 43 1.91
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 15 1.13
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 23 2.38
dada 7 -1.59 11% 5 0.57
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 0 0.00
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 22 1.10
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 25 1.42
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 0 0.00
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 20 1.48
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 75 5.70
Team Forecast 15
Prior Forecast 22

Branch: Marco Rubio

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 10 1.50
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 20 0.89
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 30 2.26
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 23 2.38
dada 7 -1.59 11% 75 8.62
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 80 11.87
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 80 3.20
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 30 1.51
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 55 3.12
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 45 2.99
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 35 2.59
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 4 0.30
Team Forecast 41
Prior Forecast 39

Branch: Carly Fiorina

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 0 0.00
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 0 0.00
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 0 0.00
dada 7 -1.59 11% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 0 0.00
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 0 0.00
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 0 0.00
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 0 0.00
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 0 0.00
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 0

Branch: Ben Carson

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 0 0.00
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 0 0.00
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 0 0.00
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 11 1.14
dada 7 -1.59 11% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 10 1.48
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 0 0.00
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 10 0.57
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 0 0.00
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 0 0.00
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 1 0.08
Team Forecast 3
Prior Forecast 2

Branch: None of the above

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 37 5.55
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 12 0.53
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 0 0.00
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 9 0.93
dada 7 -1.59 11% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 0 0.00
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 0 0.00
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 0 0.00
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 0 0.00
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 10 0.74
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 7
Prior Forecast 12

Branch: Ted Cruz

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 9 -2.08 15% 5 0.75
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.62 4% 18 0.80
GeneH 7 -1.04 7% 40 3.01
Anneinak 7 -1.44 10% 23 2.38
dada 7 -1.59 11% 10 1.15
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.06 14% 0 0.00
praedico 6 -0.56 4% 20 0.80
Clairvoyance 6 -0.70 5% 26 1.31
JJMLP 6 -0.79 5% 10 0.57
Khalid 6 -0.92 6% 15 1.00
austerity 6 -1.03 7% 35 2.59
Jean-Pierre 6 -1.05 7% 20 1.52
Team Forecast 15
Prior Forecast 12

IFP84. Forecasting Turkey controls

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 16% 55 8.99
patrickmeehan5 8 -2.30 12% 10 1.28
malcmur 7 -1.43 7% 41 3.28
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 0 0.00
boz 6 -1.25 7% 50 3.50
dada 6 -1.34 7% 65 4.88
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 8% 99 8.61
GeneH 6 -1.83 10% 25 2.56
slobodan 6 -2.02 11% 100 11.27
cdob63 5 -0.55 3% 26 0.79
CT Runner 5 -0.93 5% 30 1.56
Heffalump 5 -1.02 5% 47 2.67
Team Forecast 49
Prior Forecast 49

IFP86. Forecasting ASEAN China

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 85 10.26
Falconer 9 -4.20 17% 92 16.15
austerity 8 -1.40 5% 80 4.70
malcmur 7 -1.43 5% 45 2.69
scholar\u0026cat 7 -1.52 6% 85 5.41
cmeinel 7 -1.81 7% 82 6.20
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 55 4.40
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 80 6.48
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 8% 75 6.70
clinton 7 -2.84 11% 90 10.70
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 1 0.03
klin 6 -1.09 4% 80 3.64
Team Forecast 77
Prior Forecast 75

IFP87. Forecasting IMF

Branch: Christine Lagarde will serve a second term

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 13% 75 9.94
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 90 5.81
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 92 5.12
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 90 5.92
cmeinel 7 -1.81 8% 80 6.65
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 75 6.60
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 70 6.23
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 10 0.98
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 100 10.09
clinton 7 -2.84 13% 95 12.41
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 80 2.74
boz 6 -1.25 5% 64 3.69
Team Forecast 76
Prior Forecast 80

Branch: Someone from outside Europe

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 13% 5 0.66
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 5 0.32
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 2 0.11
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 7 0.46
cmeinel 7 -1.81 8% 13 1.08
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 20 1.76
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 0 0.00
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 80 7.85
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 0 0.00
clinton 7 -2.84 13% 3 0.39
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 10 0.34
boz 6 -1.25 5% 19 1.09
Team Forecast 14
Prior Forecast 15

Branch: Someone else from Europe

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 13% 20 2.65
austerity 8 -1.40 6% 5 0.32
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 6 0.33
malcmur 7 -1.43 6% 3 0.20
cmeinel 7 -1.81 8% 7 0.58
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 5 0.44
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 30 2.67
patrickmeehan5 7 -2.14 9% 10 0.98
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 10% 0 0.00
clinton 7 -2.84 13% 2 0.26
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 10 0.34
boz 6 -1.25 5% 17 0.98
Team Forecast 9
Prior Forecast 5

IFP88. Forecasting Superbowl

  • 201 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Sports,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
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    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.646

Branch: A team from the American Football Conference

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 25 4.44
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 65 3.48
GeneH 5 -0.73 9% 50 4.69
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 50 6.49
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 62 4.34
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 14% 40 5.65
einsteinjs 4 -1.14 14% 22 3.22
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 0 0.00
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 55 3.79
austerity 3 -0.58 7% 40 2.98
mparrault 2 -0.11 1% 54 0.75
Travist 2 -0.16 2% 65 1.34
Team Forecast 41
Prior Forecast 35

Branch: A team from the National Football Conference

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 17% 75 13.33
scholar\u0026cat 5 -0.41 5% 35 1.87
GeneH 5 -0.73 9% 50 4.69
Raisinville 5 -1.01 12% 50 6.49
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 6% 38 2.66
patrickmeehan5 4 -1.10 14% 60 8.48
einsteinjs 4 -1.14 14% 78 11.43
kormac 3 -0.07 0% 100 0.95
malcmur 3 -0.53 6% 45 3.10
austerity 3 -0.58 7% 60 4.46
mparrault 2 -0.11 1% 46 0.64
Travist 2 -0.16 2% 35 0.72
Team Forecast 58
Prior Forecast 65

IFP89. Forecasting Iran Competitiveness

Branch: Above 75

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 14% 29 4.21
petth 6 -0.74 4% 5 0.24
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 11 0.53
boz 6 -1.25 8% 34 2.75
donmars 6 -1.31 8% 2 0.17
Khalid 6 -1.34 8% 5 0.43
dada 6 -1.34 8% 25 2.17
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 10% 45 4.52
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 11% 0 0.00
GeneH 6 -1.83 11% 10 1.18
cdob63 5 -0.55 3% 4 0.14
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 4% 20 0.99
Team Forecast 17
Prior Forecast 14

Branch: Between 61 and 75, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 14% 71 10.32
petth 6 -0.74 4% 25 1.19
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 81 3.89
boz 6 -1.25 8% 42 3.40
donmars 6 -1.31 8% 56 4.74
Khalid 6 -1.34 8% 55 4.74
dada 6 -1.34 8% 75 6.50
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 10% 50 5.02
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 11% 51 5.99
GeneH 6 -1.83 11% 75 8.87
cdob63 5 -0.55 3% 56 1.97
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 4% 50 2.47
Team Forecast 59
Prior Forecast 60

Branch: In the top 50

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 14% 0 0.00
petth 6 -0.74 4% 55 2.61
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 0 0.00
boz 6 -1.25 8% 3 0.24
donmars 6 -1.31 8% 3 0.25
Khalid 6 -1.34 8% 5 0.43
dada 6 -1.34 8% 0 0.00
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 10% 0 0.00
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 11% 5 0.59
GeneH 6 -1.83 11% 0 0.00
cdob63 5 -0.55 3% 1 0.04
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 4% 10 0.49
Team Forecast 4
Prior Forecast 3

Branch: Between 51 and 60, inclusive

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 14% 0 0.00
petth 6 -0.74 4% 15 0.71
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 8 0.38
boz 6 -1.25 8% 21 1.70
donmars 6 -1.31 8% 39 3.30
Khalid 6 -1.34 8% 35 3.02
dada 6 -1.34 8% 0 0.00
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 10% 5 0.50
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 11% 44 5.17
GeneH 6 -1.83 11% 15 1.77
cdob63 5 -0.55 3% 39 1.38
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 4% 20 0.99
Team Forecast 18
Prior Forecast 23

IFP90. Forecasting Akkuyu Suspension

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Falconer 9 -4.20 22% 100 22.84
austerity 8 -1.40 7% 70 5.35
Anneinak 7 -1.21 6% 88 5.81
cmeinel 7 -1.81 9% 75 7.38
clinton 7 -2.84 15% 50 7.74
ravel 6 -0.75 4% 69 2.80
slobodan 6 -2.02 10% 100 10.98
petth 5 -0.55 2% 85 2.53
dowser 5 -0.64 3% 95 3.31
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 4% 0 0.00
donmars 5 -1.07 5% 39 2.28
dada 5 -1.12 6% 25 1.53
Team Forecast 72
Prior Forecast 67

IFP93. Forecasting BRIC Growth

Branch: Four

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 1 0.13
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 0 0.00
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 14% 1 0.14
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
boz 6 -1.25 5% 0 0.00
Khalid 6 -1.34 6% 0 0.00
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 7% 0 0.00
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 8% 0 0.00
GeneH 6 -1.83 8% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 0
Prior Forecast 2

Branch: None

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 0 0.00
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 25 1.67
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 61 6.26
clinton 8 -3.09 14% 0 0.00
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
boz 6 -1.25 5% 1 0.06
Khalid 6 -1.34 6% 0 0.00
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 7% 0 0.00
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 8% 0 0.00
GeneH 6 -1.83 8% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 7
Prior Forecast 8

Branch: Two

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 75 10.00
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 80 5.82
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 80 7.59
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 8 0.82
clinton 8 -3.09 14% 94 13.21
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 83 2.82
boz 6 -1.25 5% 86 4.91
Khalid 6 -1.34 6% 95 5.79
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 7% 35 2.48
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 8% 98 8.13
GeneH 6 -1.83 8% 95 7.94
Team Forecast 69
Prior Forecast 65

Branch: Three

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 24 3.20
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 15 1.09
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 0 0.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 20 1.90
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 0 0.00
clinton 8 -3.09 14% 4 0.56
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 17 0.58
boz 6 -1.25 5% 9 0.51
Khalid 6 -1.34 6% 5 0.30
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 7% 60 4.26
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 8% 2 0.17
GeneH 6 -1.83 8% 5 0.42
Team Forecast 12
Prior Forecast 20

Branch: One

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 0 0.00
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 5 0.36
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 75 5.00
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 0 0.00
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 31 3.18
clinton 8 -3.09 14% 1 0.14
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 0 0.00
boz 6 -1.25 5% 4 0.23
Khalid 6 -1.34 6% 0 0.00
jeremylichtman 6 -1.56 7% 5 0.35
einsteinjs 6 -1.82 8% 0 0.00
GeneH 6 -1.83 8% 0 0.00
Team Forecast 9
Prior Forecast 5

IFP94. Forecasting TIME off stand

  • 43 forecasters for this question.
  • Question has categories: Society,US
  • Closed related questions:
    Question Categories
    US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
    JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
    Superforecasting Business,US
    World Series Sports,US
    Biden Politics,US
    Twitter CEO Business,US

     

  • Average sum of accuracy on related questions of 12 best forecasters: -0.545

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Delorean 6 -1.38 21% 1 0.21
Clairvoyance 4 -0.54 8% 15 1.24
einsteinjs 4 -1.14 17% 1 0.17
kormac 3 -0.07 1% 20 0.23
GJDrew 3 -0.63 9% 24 2.32
BlackJackBones 3 -0.66 10% 17 1.71
Ossipon 3 -0.69 10% 35 3.67
Anneinak 3 -0.71 10% 11 1.19
Travist 2 -0.16 2% 15 0.37
alistaircookie 2 -0.17 2% 0 0.00
tom.prigg 2 -0.19 2% 35 0.99
petth 2 -0.21 3% 60 1.93
Team Forecast 14
Prior Forecast 17

IFP95. Forecasting NLD President Myanmar

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 11 -2.93 13% 90 12.09
Falconer 10 -4.39 20% 100 20.16
austerity 9 -1.60 7% 99 7.26
Anneinak 8 -1.46 6% 77 5.17
Clairvoyance 8 -2.08 9% 90 8.60
Mroochyslav 8 -2.25 10% 71 7.34
Khalid 7 -1.38 6% 95 6.03
dada 7 -1.48 6% 95 6.45
GeneH 7 -1.90 8% 50 4.37
petth 6 -0.74 3% 89 3.01
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 63 2.16
cdob63 6 -0.82 3% 94 3.53
Team Forecast 86
Prior Forecast 80

IFP96. Forecasting Foreign Legion to Syria

Branch: Yes

Forecaster #Related IFPs Sum Related Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 10 -2.89 12% 15 1.92
Falconer 9 -4.20 18% 0 0.00
Anneinak 7 -1.21 5% 66 3.55
Raisinville 7 -1.91 8% 55 4.68
Clairvoyance 7 -1.94 8% 60 5.16
Mroochyslav 7 -2.20 9% 37 3.61
clinton 7 -2.84 12% 15 1.89
ravel 6 -0.75 3% 71 2.35
boz 6 -1.25 5% 50 2.78
slobodan 6 -2.02 8% 100 8.96
petth 5 -0.55 2% 75 1.82
Censusguyz 5 -0.76 3% 55 1.87
Team Forecast 38
Prior Forecast 100

 

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