Those unpredictable Farsis


Not a win for me and not a win for the Conrol Group.   Final score on Iranian ICBM Launch before March 1: 100%.  Control Group’s forecast: 6%. I’m not saying anything.

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Nov 21, 2015 02:00PM UTC When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? 100.0% 1.896 1.409 0.486

Although, maybe this would be a good time to recommend a book to members of the Control Group, as part of the Control Group Assistance Programme™:

I Thought It Was Just Me (but it isn’t): Making the Journey from “What Will People Think?” to “I Am Enough”


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