A super long picky post

1. Forecasting USDCNY 1JAN16

263 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

151 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.195123.

Branch: 6.40 or more

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 90 60
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 80 80
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 85 93
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 5 8
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 100 78
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 68 53
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 100 102
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 95 113
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 99 112
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 81 57
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 41 35
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 81 78

Weighted average prediction for this question: 72.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_1_branch_6-40-or-more_answer_100.png

 

Branch: Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 0 0
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 5 5
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 80 139
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 0 0
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 20 17
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 13.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_1_branch_between-6-30-and-6-35-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Less than 6.30

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 0 0
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 0 0
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 7 6
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 0.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_1_branch_less-than-6-30_answer_0.png

Branch: More than 6.35 but less than 6.40

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 10 6
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 20 20
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 10 11
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 15 26
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 32 25
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 5 5
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 1 1
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 19 13
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 32 27
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 19 18

Weighted average prediction for this question: 13.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_1_branch_more-than-6-35-but-less-than-6-40_answer_0.png

2. Forecasting Asian Trilateral

319 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

222 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.190509.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 0 0
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 0 0
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 0 0
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 0 0
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 0 0
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 0 0
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 75 67
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_6_branch_yes_answer_0.png

3. Forecasting Jason Rezaian

341 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

218 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.196190.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.66 65 42
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.05 25 26
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.10 50 55
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.78 100 178
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.75 66 49
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 12 9
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.02 80 81
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.21 50 60
ravel 13 -0.14 0.70 66 46
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 35 30
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.96 57 54
clinton 13 -0.22 1.12 35 39

Weighted average prediction for this question: 56.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_7_branch_yes_answer_100.png

4. Forecasting NK LICBM

373 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

217 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.188060.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.69 60 41
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.09 25 27
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.15 10 11
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.86 87 161
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.78 88 68
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.81 27 21
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.26 80 100
ravel 13 -0.14 0.73 77 56
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.91 60 54
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.00 50 50
clinton 13 -0.22 1.17 62 72
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.55 23 12

Weighted average prediction for this question: 56.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_8_branch_yes_answer_100.png

5. Forecasting Venezuela Default

125 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

105 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.183336.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 15 10
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 10 11
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 33 27
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 5 4
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 99 125
clinton 14 -0.22 1.20 14 16
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 3 2
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.93 25 23
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.03 10 10
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.56 10 5
GJDrew 12 -0.15 0.83 8 6

Weighted average prediction for this question: 20.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_9_branch_yes_answer_0.png

6. Forecasting OPEC quota

457 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

293 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.191987.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.69 1 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.02 2 2
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.12 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.78 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.80 100 79
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 8 6
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.21 1 1
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.15 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 100 71
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 20 17

Weighted average prediction for this question: 14.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_12_branch_yes_answer_0.png

7. Forecasting Venice Lesbophobes

65 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Society.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

52 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.191295.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.67 19 12
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.13 18 20
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 7 5
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 99 122
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 10 7
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 5 3
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 60 53
clinton 13 -0.22 1.15 4 4
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.54 13 7
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.47 1 1

Weighted average prediction for this question: 19.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_13_branch_yes_answer_0.png

8. Forecasting Africa polio

171 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Health,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

112 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.192072.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.67 63 42
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.07 75 80
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.13 65 73
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.82 100 181
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 55 42
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 38 30
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.23 5 6
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 80 62
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 23 16
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 75 66
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.98 65 63
clinton 13 -0.22 1.14 58 66

Weighted average prediction for this question: 61.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_14_branch_yes_answer_100.png

9. Forecasting Assad Out

674 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

331 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.190509.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 15 10
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 10 10
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 20 22
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 95 174
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 55 42
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 46 36
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 85 89
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 15 18
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 33 26
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 13 9
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 15 13
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 85 84

Weighted average prediction for this question: 44.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_15_branch_yes_answer_0.png

10. Forecasting TTIP

273 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

195 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.195123.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 28 18
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 15 15
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 25 27
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 5 3
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 2 2
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 99 117
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 65 73
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 19 13
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 100 87
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 14 13

Weighted average prediction for this question: 31.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_18_branch_yes_answer_0.png

11. Forecasting Iran G7 party

408 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

241 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.196190.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.66 81 53
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.05 45 47
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.10 40 44
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.78 95 169
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.75 55 41
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 71 55
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.02 100 102
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.21 99 119
ravel 13 -0.14 0.70 77 54
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 40 34
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.96 50 48
clinton 13 -0.22 1.12 68 76

Weighted average prediction for this question: 70.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_19_branch_yes_answer_100.png

12. Forecasting Fed Funds 2015

1084 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

299 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.184674.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 13 -0.21 1.12 100 111
wlmsears 11 -0.20 1.08 80 86
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.68 100 67
malcmur 9 -0.14 0.75 100 74
GJDrew 9 -0.17 0.94 80 75
jeremylichtman 9 -0.26 1.38 100 138
patrickmeehan5 9 -0.26 1.40 99 138
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.36 80 28
cmeinel 8 -0.11 0.62 95 58
dada 8 -0.17 0.93 100 93
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.23 100 123
einsteinjs 8 -0.28 1.51 100 151

Weighted average prediction for this question: 95.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_24_branch_yes_answer_100.png

13. Forecasting Walking Dead

189 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Entertainment,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

82 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.154943.

Branch: All of the above will survive season 6

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 8 10
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 33 37
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 20 8
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 11 10
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 40 44
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 0 0
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 60 88
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 22 9
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 60 54
000 7 -0.14 0.92 41 37
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 1 0
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 52 49

Weighted average prediction for this question: 29.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_all-of-the-above-will-survive-season-6_answer_0.png

Branch: Carl

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 24 30
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 3 3
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 2 0
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 16 15
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 10 11
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 0 0
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 0 0
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 22 9
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 5 4
000 7 -0.14 0.92 8 7
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 18 17
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 8.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_carl_answer_0.png

Branch: Carol

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 0 0
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 12 13
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 7 2
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 19 18
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 10 11
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 0 0
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 15 22
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 22 9
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 10 9
000 7 -0.14 0.92 14 12
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 44 41
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 22 20

Weighted average prediction for this question: 13.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_carol_answer_0.png

Branch: Daryl

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 24 30
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 16 18
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 7 2
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 18 17
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 0 0
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 0 0
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 10 14
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 5 2
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 15 13
000 7 -0.14 0.92 8 7
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 5 4
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 22 20

Weighted average prediction for this question: 11.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_daryl_answer_0.png

Branch: Glenn

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 20 25
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 33 37
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 61 25
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 32 30
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 40 44
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 99 144
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 15 22
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 24 10
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 10 9
000 7 -0.14 0.92 26 24
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 30 28
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 4 3

Weighted average prediction for this question: 33.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_glenn_answer_0.png

Branch: Rick

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.28 24 30
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.13 3 3
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.43 3 1
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.95 4 3
dada 8 -0.17 1.11 0 0
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.46 1 1
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.47 0 0
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.45 5 2
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.90 0 0
000 7 -0.14 0.92 3 2
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.95 2 1
ravel 6 -0.15 0.95 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 3.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_25_branch_rick_answer_0.png

14. Forecasting Grexit

668 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

330 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.195123.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.68 15 10
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 3 3
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.10 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.75 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.78 3 2
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.13 4 4
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 7 4
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.87 5 4
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 10 9

Weighted average prediction for this question: 3.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_30_branch_yes_answer_0.png

15. Forecasting WTI

592 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Finance,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

250 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.179312.

Branch: Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.74 20 14
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.10 70 76
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.20 100 119
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.85 77 65
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.85 100 85
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.12 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.29 0 0
ed3 14 -0.15 0.84 85 71
clinton 14 -0.22 1.23 50 61
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 9 6
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.95 22 20
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.05 10 10

Weighted average prediction for this question: 44.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_31_branch_between-34-00-and-40-00-per-barrel-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Less than $34.00 per barrel

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.74 80 58
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.10 30 32
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.20 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.85 23 19
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.85 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.12 100 111
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.29 0 0
ed3 14 -0.15 0.84 15 12
clinton 14 -0.22 1.23 50 61
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 91 69
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.95 3 2
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.05 90 94

Weighted average prediction for this question: 38.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_31_branch_less-than-34-00-per-barrel_answer_0.png

16. Forecasting Oil export ban

214 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Politics,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
World Series Sports,US
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Twitter CEO Business,US
PSUV International,Politics

150 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.159269.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 25 -0.20 1.27 1 1
malcmur 20 -0.15 0.92 36 33
patrickmeehan5 20 -0.23 1.44 99 142
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.62 38 23
austerity 16 -0.13 0.79 80 63
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.99 88 87
GJDrew 16 -0.16 1.01 55 55
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.23 100 123
ravel 15 -0.13 0.80 55 44
clinton 15 -0.15 0.95 50 47
Jean-Pierre 15 -0.15 0.96 25 23
dada 15 -0.16 1.00 95 95

Weighted average prediction for this question: 61.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_33_branch_yes_answer_100.png

17. Forecasting South China ADIZ

436 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

244 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.192072.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.67 45 30
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.07 20 21
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.13 3 3
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.82 72 130
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 44 33
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 33 26
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.23 89 109
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 10 7
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 63 45
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 35 31
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.98 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.14 51 58

Weighted average prediction for this question: 41.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_34_branch_yes_answer_0.png

18. Forecasting Jurassic World

428 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Entertainment,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

189 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.162992.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.21 0 0
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.77 0 0
wlmsears 10 -0.20 1.21 10 12
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.07 5 5
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.40 1 0
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.90 0 0
dada 8 -0.17 1.06 0 0
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.39 99 137
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.40 0 0
jeremylichtman 8 -0.23 1.42 0 0
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.42 0 0
Khalid 7 -0.12 0.73 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 12.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_35_branch_yes_answer_0.png

19. Forecasting Adnan Syed

102 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Entertainment,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

64 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.140984.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.40 10 14
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.24 25 30
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.47 7 3
malcmur 8 -0.15 1.04 5 5
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.61 5 8
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.49 10 4
cmeinel 7 -0.13 0.92 15 13
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.99 0 0
000 7 -0.14 1.02 0 0
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.56 5 7
MAA414 6 -0.08 0.60 20 11
praedico 6 -0.09 0.67 60 40

Weighted average prediction for this question: 11.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_36_branch_yes_answer_0.png

20. Forecasting IRA

192 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Politics.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

156 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.182139.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.08 0 0
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.18 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.87 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 0 0
ed3 15 -0.15 0.84 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 0 0
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.76 0 0
scholar\u0026cat 13 -0.15 0.81 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 0.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_40_branch_yes_answer_0.png

21. Forecasting Goodell

226 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Sports,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

120 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.176273.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.12 99 111
GJDrew 9 -0.17 0.99 90 89
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.37 95 35
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.84 98 81
dada 8 -0.17 0.98 99 96
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.29 100 128
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.29 99 127
cmeinel 7 -0.13 0.73 100 73
Hammer Time 7 -0.14 0.79 90 71
000 7 -0.14 0.81 100 81
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.25 99 123
einsteinjs 7 -0.27 1.54 99 152

Weighted average prediction for this question: 97.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_44_branch_yes_answer_100.png

22. Forecasting Syrian refugees

297 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

185 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.190509.

Branch: 1 million or more

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 60 40
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 70 75
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 0 0
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 50 38
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 40 32
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 0 0
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 0 0
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 15 11
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 83 59
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 5 4
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 60 59

Weighted average prediction for this question: 26.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_45_branch_1-million-or-more_answer_0.png

Branch: More than 710,000 but less than 1 million

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 40 27
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 30 32
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 100 113
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 50 38
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 60 48
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 100 105
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 85 105
ed3 14 -0.15 0.79 85 67
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 17 12
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.89 35 31
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 40 39

Weighted average prediction for this question: 51.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_45_branch_more-than-710000-but-less-than-1-million_answer_100.png

23. Forecasting Bitcoin

115 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Finance,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

69 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.178043.

Branch: Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.72 30 21
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.22 70 85
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.83 12 9
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.86 86 73
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.33 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 70 54
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.96 80 76
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.06 25 26
clinton 13 -0.22 1.23 25 30
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.58 67 38
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.58 0 0
GJDrew 11 -0.15 0.86 55 47

Weighted average prediction for this question: 38.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_46_branch_between-125000-and-250000-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Less than 125,000

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.72 0 0
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.22 25 30
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.83 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.86 3 2
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.33 100 133
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 15 11
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.96 15 14
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.06 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.23 0 0
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.58 8 4
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.58 0 0
GJDrew 11 -0.15 0.86 10 8

Weighted average prediction for this question: 17.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_46_branch_less-than-125000_answer_0.png

Branch: More than 250,000

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.72 70 50
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.22 5 6
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.83 88 72
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.86 11 9
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.33 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 15 11
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.96 5 4
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.06 75 79
clinton 13 -0.22 1.23 75 92
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.58 25 14
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.58 100 158
GJDrew 11 -0.15 0.86 35 30

Weighted average prediction for this question: 44.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_46_branch_more-than-250000_answer_0.png

24. Forecasting iPhones

385 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Business,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

139 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.163493.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.21 100 121
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.76 85 64
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.07 60 63
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.40 75 30
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.90 85 76
dada 8 -0.17 1.06 100 105
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.39 89 123
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.39 95 132
jeremylichtman 8 -0.23 1.42 100 142
Khalid 7 -0.12 0.73 60 43
cmeinel 7 -0.13 0.79 95 75
000 7 -0.14 0.88 81 70

Weighted average prediction for this question: 87.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_47_branch_yes_answer_100.png

25. Forecasting USG shutdown

606 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Politics,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
World Series Sports,US
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Twitter CEO Business,US
PSUV International,Politics

270 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.176930.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.12 30 33
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.86 18 15
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.21 1 1
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.56 20 11
ed3 16 -0.13 0.76 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.89 11 9
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.91 10 9
austerity 15 -0.13 0.75 30 22
dada 15 -0.16 0.90 3 2
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.06 0 0
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.41 0 0
Falconer 15 -0.28 1.57 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 8.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_49_branch_yes_answer_0.png

26. Forecasting BOJ easing

176 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

109 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.189519.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.70 5 3
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.04 1 1
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.14 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.80 95 170
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.81 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.81 8 6
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.06 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.22 80 97
clinton 14 -0.22 1.16 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.73 11 7
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.00 0 0
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.54 20 10

Weighted average prediction for this question: 24.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_50_branch_yes_answer_0.png

27. Forecasting IAEA access

232 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

128 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.187797.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.69 27 18
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.09 25 27
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.15 5 5
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.78 17 13
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.82 35 28
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.26 5 6
ravel 13 -0.14 0.73 11 8
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.01 7 7
clinton 13 -0.22 1.17 2 2
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.55 20 10
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.89 30 26

Weighted average prediction for this question: 12.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_51_branch_yes_answer_0.png

28. Forecasting Malaysia controls

134 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

80 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.178544.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.74 33 24
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.21 4 4
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.86 11 9
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.86 7 6
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.30 60 78
clinton 14 -0.22 1.24 3 3
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 4 3
tylerh 13 -0.17 0.95 40 38
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.06 10 10
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.58 20 11
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.87 15 12
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.58 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 16.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_55_branch_yes_answer_0.png

29. Forecasting Winds of Winter

324 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Entertainment,US.

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Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
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Twitter CEO Business,US

100 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.136409.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.45 40 58
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.28 20 25
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.48 22 10
malcmur 8 -0.15 1.08 65 70
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.66 100 166
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.67 5 8
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.51 25 12
Khalid 7 -0.12 0.88 35 30
000 7 -0.14 1.05 32 33
MAA414 6 -0.08 0.62 51 31
JJMLP 6 -0.09 0.64 25 15
praedico 6 -0.09 0.69 65 45

Weighted average prediction for this question: 42.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_56_branch_yes_answer_0.png

30. Forecasting Russia food embargo

256 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Geopolitics,International.

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Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

144 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.194370.

Branch: 0

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 75 75
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.11 25 27
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 91 71
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.79 68 53
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.14 45 51
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 100 70
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 53 51
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.53 80 42
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.80 75 59
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.45 0 0
974david 12 -0.30 1.52 55 83

Weighted average prediction for this question: 49.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_57_branch_0_answer_0.png

Branch: All

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 4 4
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.11 5 5
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.79 13 10
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.14 1 1
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 5 4
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.53 12 6
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.80 0 0
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.45 0 0
974david 12 -0.30 1.52 15 22

Weighted average prediction for this question: 4.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_57_branch_all_answer_0.png

Branch: Between 1 and 5, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 15 15
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.11 40 44
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 9 7
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.79 19 14
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.14 9 10
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 34 33
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.53 6 3
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.80 25 19
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.45 0 0
974david 12 -0.30 1.52 15 22

Weighted average prediction for this question: 14.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_57_branch_between-1-and-5-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: More than five, but less than all

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.01 6 6
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.11 30 33
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.79 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.19 100 119
clinton 14 -0.22 1.14 45 51
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 8 7
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.53 2 1
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.80 0 0
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.45 100 144
974david 12 -0.30 1.52 15 22

Weighted average prediction for this question: 32.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_57_branch_more-than-five-but-less-than-all_answer_0.png

31. Forecasting Syria no-fly zone

1017 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

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Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
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Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

303 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.194597.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.66 10 6
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.05 0 0
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.11 2 2
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.79 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.76 11 8
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.79 1 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.03 0 0
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.22 74 90
ed3 14 -0.15 0.78 1 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 49 34
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.97 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.13 2 2

Weighted average prediction for this question: 12.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_61_branch_yes_answer_0.png

32. Forecasting KSA

467 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Politics.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

229 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.183204.

Branch: No

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 60 43
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.07 88 94
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 95 111
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 100 186
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 88 73
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 94 78
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 90 114
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 85 102
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 97 53
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 70 52
AngrySloth 13 -0.16 0.86 95 81
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.86 95 81

Weighted average prediction for this question: 89.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_62_branch_no_answer_100.png

Branch: Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 10 7
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.07 5 5
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 2 2
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 2 1
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 3 2
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 0 0
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 3 1
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 0 0
AngrySloth 13 -0.16 0.86 5 4
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.86 5 4

Weighted average prediction for this question: 2.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_62_branch_yes-mohammed-bin-nayef_answer_0.png

Branch: Yes, Mohammed bin Salman

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 20 14
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.07 2 2
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 2 2
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 1 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 2 1
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 0 0
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 0 0
AngrySloth 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 1.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_62_branch_yes-mohammed-bin-salman_answer_0.png

Branch: Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.07 0 0
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 1 1
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 1 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 10 12
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 0 0
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 0 0
AngrySloth 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 1.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_62_branch_yes-muqrin-bin-abdulaziz_answer_0.png

Branch: Yes, Someone else

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.72 10 7
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.07 5 5
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.17 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.86 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.84 9 7
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.84 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.27 0 0
clinton 14 -0.22 1.21 15 18
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.56 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.75 30 22
AngrySloth 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.86 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_62_branch_yes-someone-else_answer_0.png

33. Forecasting VW

729 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Business,Environment,US.

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US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
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World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

136 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.160707.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.23 5 6
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.78 5 3
wlmsears 10 -0.20 1.23 20 24
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.41 25 10
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.92 15 13
dada 8 -0.17 1.07 18 19
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.41 99 139
jeremylichtman 8 -0.23 1.44 65 93
cmeinel 7 -0.13 0.80 14 11
000 7 -0.14 0.89 33 29
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.37 100 136
sonac36 6 -0.07 0.44 15 6

Weighted average prediction for this question: 41.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_63_branch_yes_answer_0.png

34. Forecasting Putin Abe

291 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

160 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.190585.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 45 30
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 15 16
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 5 5
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.83 5 9
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 33 25
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 37 29
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 20 21
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.24 33 41
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 23 16
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 23 22
clinton 13 -0.22 1.15 9 10
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.54 18 9

Weighted average prediction for this question: 19.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_64_branch_yes_answer_0.png

35. Forecasting RCEP

165 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

114 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.189519.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.70 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.04 0 0
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.14 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.80 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.81 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.81 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.06 0 0
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.22 3 3
clinton 14 -0.22 1.16 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.73 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.00 0 0
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.54 1 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 0.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_66_branch_yes_answer_0.png

36. Forecasting NATO 4

243 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

135 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.198020.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.65 40 26
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.04 40 41
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.09 20 21
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.76 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.77 45 34
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.20 20 23
ravel 13 -0.14 0.70 51 35
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.95 55 52
clinton 13 -0.22 1.11 82 90
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.52 28 14
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.42 100 142
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.79 60 47

Weighted average prediction for this question: 44.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_70_branch_yes_answer_0.png

37. Forecasting Iran launch

195 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

117 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.200532.

Branch: Before 1 March 2016

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.02 30 30
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.08 8 8
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.74 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.73 100 73
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.76 16 12
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.18 10 11
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 100 68
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.94 100 94
clinton 13 -0.22 1.09 40 43
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.51 28 14
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.83 30 25
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.40 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 31.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_71_branch_before-1-march-2016_answer_0.png

Branch: Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.02 25 25
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.08 8 8
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.74 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.73 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.76 13 9
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.18 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.94 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.09 10 10
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.51 13 6
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.83 10 8
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.40 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_71_branch_between-1-march-and-30-april-2016-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.02 20 20
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.08 8 8
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.74 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.73 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.76 13 9
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.18 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.94 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.09 10 10
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.51 11 5
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.83 10 8
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.40 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_71_branch_between-1-may-and-30-june-2016-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Not before 1 July 2016

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.02 25 25
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.08 75 80
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.74 100 174
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.73 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.76 58 44
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.18 90 106
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.94 0 0
clinton 13 -0.22 1.09 40 43
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.51 48 24
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.83 50 41
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.40 100 140

Weighted average prediction for this question: 56.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_71_branch_not-before-1-july-2016_answer_100.png

38. Forecasting PA Israel halt

126 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

77 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.198345.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.03 25 25
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.09 30 32
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.76 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.77 12 9
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.20 33 39
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 13 9
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.95 10 9
clinton 13 -0.22 1.11 15 16
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.52 20 10
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.84 10 8
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.42 0 0
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.61 20 12

Weighted average prediction for this question: 14.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_74_branch_yes_answer_0.png

39. Forecasting NK nuke test

244 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

114 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.178325.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.72 65 46
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.15 30 34
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.21 40 48
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.83 59 48
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.86 45 38
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.33 51 67
ravel 13 -0.14 0.77 67 51
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.06 45 47
clinton 13 -0.22 1.23 58 71
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.58 59 34
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.58 100 157
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.68 40 27

Weighted average prediction for this question: 56.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_76_branch_yes_answer_100.png

40. Forecasting NATO 4 or 5

156 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

84 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.185456.

Branch: No

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.11 90 99
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.83 62 51
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.28 40 51
ravel 13 -0.14 0.74 100 74
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.02 70 71
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.56 70 38
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.52 0 0
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.65 20 13
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.84 50 41
974david 11 -0.30 1.61 85 136
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.06 75 79

Weighted average prediction for this question: 54.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_77_branch_no_answer_100.png

Branch: Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.11 2 2
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.79 50 39
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.83 5 4
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.28 10 12
ravel 13 -0.14 0.74 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.02 0 0
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.56 5 2
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.52 100 151
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.65 30 19
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.84 0 0
974david 11 -0.30 1.61 15 24
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.06 3 3

Weighted average prediction for this question: 21.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_77_branch_yes-both-article-4-and-article-5_answer_0.png

Branch: Yes, only Article 4

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.11 6 6
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.79 50 39
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.83 25 20
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.28 50 63
ravel 13 -0.14 0.74 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.02 30 30
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.56 20 11
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.52 0 0
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.65 20 13
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.84 50 41
974david 11 -0.30 1.61 0 0
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.06 16 16

Weighted average prediction for this question: 20.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_77_branch_yes-only-article-4_answer_0.png

Branch: Yes, only Article 5

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.11 2 2
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.79 0 0
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.83 8 6
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.28 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.74 0 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.02 0 0
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.56 5 2
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.52 0 0
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.65 30 19
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.84 0 0
974david 11 -0.30 1.61 0 0
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.06 6 6

Weighted average prediction for this question: 3.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_77_branch_yes-only-article-5_answer_0.png

41. Forecasting Panama Canal

206 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

118 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.169523.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.78 60 46
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.16 40 46
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.27 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.90 33 29
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.90 25 22
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.18 99 117
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.37 20 27
ravel 13 -0.14 0.81 11 8
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.11 45 50
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.61 25 15
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.91 30 27
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.99 25 24

Weighted average prediction for this question: 34.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_78_branch_yes_answer_0.png

42. Forecasting Putin Nuke Summit

295 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

122 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.189147.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 27 18
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 15 16
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 30 34
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.85 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.78 22 17
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.81 15 12
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.25 20 25
ravel 13 -0.14 0.73 1 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 1.00 10 9
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.54 15 8
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.49 100 148
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.64 60 38

Weighted average prediction for this question: 27.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_79_branch_yes_answer_0.png

43. Forecasting Brexit

293 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Politics.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

132 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.187227.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.70 60 42
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.05 70 73
Raisinville 19 -0.22 1.15 0 0
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.82 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.82 22 18
einsteinjs 17 -0.21 1.10 5 5
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.82 22 17
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.24 90 111
clinton 14 -0.22 1.18 77 90
mparrault 13 -0.10 0.54 15 8
ravel 13 -0.14 0.74 3 2
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.84 10 8

Weighted average prediction for this question: 31.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_80_branch_yes_answer_0.png

44. Forecasting GOP nominee

537 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Politics,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
World Series Sports,US
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Twitter CEO Business,US
PSUV International,Politics

171 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.162671.

Branch: Ben Carson

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 0 0
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 3 2
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 10 13
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 4 2
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 11 10
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 3 2
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 0 0
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 0 0
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 0 0
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 2.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_ben-carson_answer_0.png

Branch: Carly Fiorina

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 0 0
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 1 0
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 0 0
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 2 1
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 0 0
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 0 0
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 0 0
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 0 0
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 0 0
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 0.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_carly-fiorina_answer_0.png

Branch: Donald Trump

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 2 2
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 4 3
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 0 0
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 20 12
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 23 22
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 21 20
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 20 16
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 5 4
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 0 0
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 100 153
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 30 23

Weighted average prediction for this question: 21.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_donald-trump_answer_0.png

Branch: Jeb Bush

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 46 56
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 32 29
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 10 13
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 9 5
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 11 10
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 10 9
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 0 0
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 10 9
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 12 13
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 10 7

Weighted average prediction for this question: 13.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_jeb-bush_answer_0.png

Branch: Marco Rubio

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 10 12
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 36 33
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 80 105
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 41 24
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 23 22
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 40 39
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 35 28
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 75 73
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 83 95
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 30 23

Weighted average prediction for this question: 38.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_marco-rubio_answer_0.png

Branch: None of the above

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 37 45
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 5 4
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 0 0
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 9 5
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 9 8
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 3 2
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 10 8
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 0 0
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 4 4
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 100 69
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 12.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_none-of-the-above_answer_0.png

Branch: Ted Cruz

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 24 -0.20 1.22 5 6
malcmur 19 -0.15 0.93 19 17
patrickmeehan5 19 -0.21 1.31 0 0
mparrault 17 -0.10 0.60 15 9
Anneinak 16 -0.16 0.97 23 22
GJDrew 16 -0.16 0.99 23 22
austerity 15 -0.13 0.82 35 28
dada 15 -0.16 0.98 10 9
einsteinjs 15 -0.19 1.15 1 1
slobodan 15 -0.25 1.53 0 0
ravel 14 -0.11 0.69 0 0
GeneH 14 -0.13 0.79 30 23

Weighted average prediction for this question: 11.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_81_branch_ted-cruz_answer_0.png

45. Forecasting Turkey controls

77 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

48 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.172057.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.14 55 62
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.89 41 36
patrickmeehan5 16 -0.23 1.35 10 13
ravel 13 -0.14 0.80 0 0
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.64 100 163
CT Runner 11 -0.12 0.70 30 21
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.06 99 104
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.64 26 16
dada 10 -0.15 0.88 65 57
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.47 25 36
000 8 -0.14 0.80 45 35
ckruger 7 -0.11 0.63 65 40

Weighted average prediction for this question: 49.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_84_branch_yes_answer_0.png

46. Forecasting ASEAN China

140 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

78 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.198988.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.65 65 42
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.03 85 87
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.09 55 59
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.76 92 161
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.77 45 34
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.19 75 89
ravel 13 -0.14 0.69 1 0
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.95 95 90
clinton 13 -0.22 1.10 90 99
mparrault 12 -0.10 0.52 65 33
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.84 85 71
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.42 100 141

Weighted average prediction for this question: 75.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_86_branch_yes_answer_100.png

47. Forecasting IMF

154 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

95 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.190293.

Branch: Christine Lagarde will serve a second term

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 90 60
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 75 80
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 75 85
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 92 71
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 90 72
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 100 105
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.25 10 12
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 80 57
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 75 74
clinton 13 -0.22 1.15 95 109
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.88 90 79
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.48 100 148

Weighted average prediction for this question: 79.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_87_branch_christine-lagarde-will-serve-a-second-term_answer_100.png

Branch: Someone else from Europe

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 5 3
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 20 21
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 5 5
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 6 4
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 3 2
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 0 0
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.25 10 12
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 10 7
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 5 4
clinton 13 -0.22 1.15 2 2
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.88 5 4
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.48 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_87_branch_someone-else-from-europe_answer_0.png

Branch: Someone from outside Europe

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 19 -0.13 0.68 5 3
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.08 5 5
Raisinville 18 -0.22 1.14 20 22
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.77 2 1
malcmur 16 -0.15 0.80 7 5
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.05 0 0
patrickmeehan5 15 -0.24 1.25 80 99
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 10 7
cmeinel 13 -0.19 0.99 20 19
clinton 13 -0.22 1.15 3 3
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.88 5 4
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.48 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 14.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_87_branch_someone-from-outside-europe_answer_0.png

48. Forecasting Superbowl

191 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Sports,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

46 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.165713.

Branch: A team from the American Football Conference

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.19 50 59
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.75 55 41
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.40 54 21
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.89 55 48
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.37 40 54
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.37 25 34
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.42 65 27
000 7 -0.14 0.86 46 39
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.33 0 0
einsteinjs 7 -0.27 1.63 22 35
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.89 53 47
ravel 6 -0.15 0.89 16 14

Weighted average prediction for this question: 35.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_88_branch_a-team-from-the-american-football-conference_answer_0.png

Branch: A team from the National Football Conference

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Raisinville 12 -0.20 1.19 50 59
GeneH 10 -0.13 0.75 45 33
mparrault 8 -0.07 0.40 46 18
malcmur 8 -0.15 0.89 45 39
patrickmeehan5 8 -0.23 1.37 60 82
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.37 75 102
scholar\u0026cat 7 -0.07 0.42 35 14
000 7 -0.14 0.86 54 46
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.33 100 132
einsteinjs 7 -0.27 1.63 78 127
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.89 47 41
ravel 6 -0.15 0.89 84 74

Weighted average prediction for this question: 64.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_88_branch_a-team-from-the-national-football-conference_answer_100.png

49. Forecasting Iran Competitiveness

29 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

24 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.172138.

Branch: Above 75

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.17 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.80 11 8
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.97 5 4
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.06 45 47
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.64 5 3
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.47 10 14
Censusguyz 8 -0.11 0.63 20 12
000 8 -0.14 0.80 5 3
morrell 8 -0.16 0.92 5 4
ckruger 7 -0.11 0.63 5 3
boz 7 -0.24 1.39 34 47
madre 7 -0.26 1.53 15 22

Weighted average prediction for this question: 14.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_89_branch_above-75_answer_0.png

Branch: Between 51 and 60, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.17 44 51
ravel 13 -0.14 0.80 0 0
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.97 35 33
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.06 5 5
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.64 38 24
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.47 15 22
Censusguyz 8 -0.11 0.63 20 12
000 8 -0.14 0.80 10 7
morrell 8 -0.16 0.92 25 23
ckruger 7 -0.11 0.63 55 34
boz 7 -0.24 1.39 21 29
madre 7 -0.26 1.53 21 32

Weighted average prediction for this question: 23.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_89_branch_between-51-and-60-inclusive_answer_0.png

Branch: Between 61 and 75, inclusive

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.17 51 59
ravel 13 -0.14 0.80 89 71
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.97 55 53
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.06 50 52
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.64 56 35
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.47 75 110
Censusguyz 8 -0.11 0.63 50 31
000 8 -0.14 0.80 85 67
morrell 8 -0.16 0.92 68 62
ckruger 7 -0.11 0.63 35 21
boz 7 -0.24 1.39 42 58
madre 7 -0.26 1.53 62 94

Weighted average prediction for this question: 60.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_89_branch_between-61-and-75-inclusive_answer_100.png

Branch: In the top 50

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.17 5 5
ravel 13 -0.14 0.80 0 0
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.97 5 4
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.06 0 0
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.64 1 0
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.47 0 0
Censusguyz 8 -0.11 0.63 10 6
000 8 -0.14 0.80 0 0
morrell 8 -0.16 0.92 2 1
ckruger 7 -0.11 0.63 5 3
boz 7 -0.24 1.39 3 4
madre 7 -0.26 1.53 2 3

Weighted average prediction for this question: 2.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_89_branch_in-the-top-50_answer_0.png

50. Forecasting Akkuyu Suspension

35 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Geopolitics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

26 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.193657.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.80 100 180
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.76 88 66
ravel 13 -0.14 0.71 89 63
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.45 100 145
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.02 5 5
cdob63 9 -0.11 0.55 63 34
dada 9 -0.14 0.74 20 14
GeneH 9 -0.27 1.39 70 97
000 8 -0.14 0.71 15 10
morrell 8 -0.16 0.82 95 77
Censusguyz 7 -0.12 0.64 0 0
dkc 7 -0.27 1.40 85 119

Weighted average prediction for this question: 67.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_90_branch_yes_answer_100.png

51. Forecasting BRIC Growth

51 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Economics,International.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

36 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.176309.

Branch: Four

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.75 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.12 1 1
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.87 25 21
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.14 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.78 0 0
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.88 0 0
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.95 0 0
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.03 0 0
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.62 0 0
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.44 0 0
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.65 0 0
000 8 -0.14 0.78 5 3

Weighted average prediction for this question: 2.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_93_branch_four_answer_0.png

Branch: None

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.75 0 0
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.12 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.87 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.14 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.78 0 0
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.88 0 0
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.95 0 0
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.03 0 0
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.62 0 0
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.44 0 0
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.65 61 100
000 8 -0.14 0.78 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 8.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_93_branch_none_answer_0.png

Branch: One

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.75 5 3
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.12 0 0
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.87 0 0
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.14 0 0
ravel 13 -0.14 0.78 0 0
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.88 0 0
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.95 0 0
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.03 5 5
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.62 0 0
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.44 0 0
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.65 31 51
000 8 -0.14 0.78 2 1

Weighted average prediction for this question: 5.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_93_branch_one_answer_0.png

Branch: Three

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.75 15 11
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.12 33 36
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.87 50 43
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.14 2 2
ravel 13 -0.14 0.78 17 13
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.88 20 17
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.95 5 4
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.03 60 62
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.62 24 14
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.44 20 28
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.65 0 0
000 8 -0.14 0.78 8 6

Weighted average prediction for this question: 20.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_93_branch_three_answer_0.png

Branch: Two

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
austerity 20 -0.13 0.75 80 59
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.12 66 73
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.87 25 21
einsteinjs 16 -0.20 1.14 98 111
ravel 13 -0.14 0.78 83 64
Clairvoyance 12 -0.15 0.88 80 70
Khalid 12 -0.17 0.95 95 90
jeremylichtman 11 -0.18 1.03 35 36
cdob63 10 -0.11 0.62 76 47
GeneH 10 -0.25 1.44 80 114
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.65 8 13
000 8 -0.14 0.78 85 66

Weighted average prediction for this question: 64.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_93_branch_two_answer_100.png

52. Forecasting TIME off stand

26 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories Society,US.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Superforecasting Business,US
World Series Sports,US
Biden Politics,US
Twitter CEO Business,US

16 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.158674.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
GJDrew 9 -0.17 1.10 35 38
Delorean 8 -0.23 1.43 1 1
000 7 -0.14 0.90 25 22
slobodan 7 -0.22 1.39 0 0
einsteinjs 7 -0.27 1.71 1 1
sonac36 6 -0.07 0.44 10 4
cdob63 6 -0.15 0.93 36 33
ravel 6 -0.15 0.93 77 71
Clairvoyance 5 -0.12 0.79 15 11
Anneinak 5 -0.19 1.22 11 13
dowser 3 -0.10 0.62 25 15
alistaircookie 2 -0.09 0.54 0 0

Weighted average prediction for this question: 17.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_94_branch_yes_answer_0.png

53. Forecasting NLD President Myanmar

33 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Politics.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
US Ex Im Bank Economics,Politics,US
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Biden Politics,US
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

30 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.192561.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 19 -0.20 1.02 90 91
Falconer 19 -0.34 1.77 100 177
Anneinak 17 -0.15 0.80 77 61
ravel 13 -0.14 0.72 63 45
Khalid 13 -0.16 0.82 95 77
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.46 100 146
cdob63 11 -0.12 0.65 92 59
dada 11 -0.15 0.78 85 66
GeneH 11 -0.24 1.23 35 43
Censusguyz 9 -0.12 0.65 52 33
Mroochyslav 9 -0.29 1.51 71 107
ckruger 8 -0.12 0.60 90 54

Weighted average prediction for this question: 80.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 100%:

qid_95_branch_yes_answer_100.png

54. Forecasting Foreign Legion to Syria

58 forecasters for this question.

Question has categories International,Security.

Closed related questions
Question Categories
AKP Turkey International,Politics
Iran S-300 Geopolitics,International,Security
China IPO Finance,International
Russia food embargo Economics,Geopolitics,International
JCPOA Geopolitics,International,Politics,US
Argentina President International,Politics
Sejm International,Politics
JCPOA Iran Geopolitics,International,Politics,Security
IAEA Parchin International,Security
Canada PM International,Politics
Russia airstrikes Syria International,Security
Montenegro Geopolitics,International
PSUV International,Politics

41 forecasters of this question beat the crowd in some closed related question.

Mean accuracy of 12 who forecast the most related questions and beat the crowd in some branch of every related question forecast: -0.195815.

Branch: Yes

Top 12 most forecast, Avg accuracy in related questions, weight based on average/mean accuracy, last forecast for this branch, weighted forecast
Forecaster #Related Questions Forecast Average Accuracy Weight Forecast Weighted Forecast
Jean-Pierre 18 -0.21 1.05 20 20
Falconer 18 -0.35 1.78 0 0
Anneinak 16 -0.15 0.75 66 49
ravel 13 -0.14 0.70 51 35
clinton 13 -0.22 1.12 20 22
slobodan 12 -0.28 1.44 100 143
Clairvoyance 11 -0.16 0.79 60 47
jeremylichtman 10 -0.20 1.01 1 1
cdob63 9 -0.11 0.54 72 39
dada 9 -0.14 0.74 55 40
GeneH 9 -0.27 1.37 65 89
000 8 -0.14 0.70 100 70

Weighted average prediction for this question: 46.

If we had gone with this team from the start, the following picture shows the resulting accuracy if the question were resolved today at 0%:

qid_96_branch_yes_answer_0.png

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