Updated super-picker

4 questions closed today so I’ve updated my super-picker estimates for remaining open questions, based on 17 questions now closed.  Here’s where they see it.  Cases where I don’t see it the same way I will color in red.  Note that I’m seeing quite a few closed bins below.  I need to program around this by keep a record of closed bins myself and adjusting probabilities conditional on that:

QID Question Branch Prediction Best12 Categories
1 USDCNY 1JAN16 6.40 or more 41% KSpain, jkbick, aarongertler, skepticalforecaster, Dima K, Bdelaney, Wagle, rwjanssen, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Badger Economics, International
1 USDCNY 1JAN16 Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive 11% KSpain, jkbick, aarongertler, skepticalforecaster, Dima K, Bdelaney, Wagle, rwjanssen, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Badger Economics, International
1 USDCNY 1JAN16 Less than 6.30 21% KSpain, jkbick, aarongertler, skepticalforecaster, Dima K, Bdelaney, Wagle, rwjanssen, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Badger Economics, International
1 USDCNY 1JAN16 More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 25% KSpain, jkbick, aarongertler, skepticalforecaster, Dima K, Bdelaney, Wagle, rwjanssen, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Badger Economics, International
3 Iran S-300 Yes 29% Titan7160, beris520, macker40, Shemiran, spudgun, Milosz, banda311, klajoklis, pb41, fredgoodguess, gkiljan, Mikatec Geopolitics, International, Security
6 Asian Trilateral Yes 3% Titan7160, andreskull, beris520, drofter, Shemiran, jester, pb41, occam, jkbick, Indysafari, Costarican, aarongertler Geopolitics, International
7 Jason Rezaian Yes 63% Titan7160, brazilianwitchcraft, beris520, starbright, drofter, Shemiran, banda311, CETC, klajoklis, jester, Costarican, aarongertler Geopolitics, International
8 NK LICBM Yes 48% Titan7160, andreskull, beris520, macker40, Milosz, klajoklis, jester, pb41, jkbick, Costarican, RCScheffers, jb007 Geopolitics, International, Security
9 Venezuela Default Yes 24% brazilianwitchcraft, pb41, jkbick, okhope18, Bdelaney, Wagle, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Amir , Falconer, christianmaas, TVANKSTA Economics, International
12 OPEC quota Yes

THIS SHOULD BE CLOSED OR VOIDED

20% Titan7160, mc77, brazilianwitchcraft, beris520, macker40, saesousa, pb41, occam, ivanovic99, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, makertaker Economics, Geopolitics, International
13 Venice Lesbophobes Yes 19% aarongertler, budwiser, Wagle, TVANKSTA, Falconer, Marius, vasil, ccameron, slobodan, madre, kormac, ESR International, Society
14 Africa polio Yes 65% Peter Katzenfisch, CETC, jester, pb41, aarongertler, budwiser, RCScheffers, Chrisdo, Bdelaney, Wagle, Rebel ran riot, gstaneff Health, International
15 Assad Out Yes 39% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, brazilianwitchcraft, beris520, okhope18, macker40, Mdmalseed, Milosz, farmorit, jester, pb41 Geopolitics, International, Security
18 TTIP Yes 31% Jamison, jester, occam, ilikecoffee, Judson, RCScheffers, Dima K, Chrisdo, banda311, Gor999, put3000, Rebel ran riot Economics, Geopolitics, International
19 Iran G7 party Yes 51% Titan7160, Liza, beris520, Peter Katzenfisch, okhope18, drofter, Shemiran, Bashe, banda311, jester, Hideous Cheese Blunder, AndrewSabisky Geopolitics, International, Security
24 Fed Funds 2015 Yes 56% Tom L, MaryB, ShotintheDark, Aaronlane, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Warren Hatch, ilikecoffee, dinofire, bwood, Mroochyslav, Darren Economics, US
25 Walking Dead All of the above will survive season 6 40% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
25 Walking Dead Carl 8% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
25 Walking Dead Carol 13% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
25 Walking Dead Daryl 8% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
25 Walking Dead Glenn 25% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
25 Walking Dead Rick 2% BenP, ShotintheDark, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, sparky178, 974david, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, cellocat Entertainment, US
30 Grexit Yes 14% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, nobleistic, andreskull, beris520, simon.rodan, Robur, macker40, Jamison, Mdmalseed, starbright Economics, Geopolitics, International
31 WTI Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive 48% Titan7160, Robur, Jamison, drofter, klajoklis, jester, fredgoodguess, occam, afoyfs, jkbick, okhope18, usajvbueno Economics, Finance, International
31 WTI Less than $34.00 per barrel 19% Titan7160, Robur, Jamison, drofter, klajoklis, jester, fredgoodguess, occam, afoyfs, jkbick, okhope18, usajvbueno Economics, Finance, International
31 WTI More than $40.00 per barrel: ANSWER NO LONGER POSSIBLE 31% Titan7160, Robur, Jamison, drofter, klajoklis, jester, fredgoodguess, occam, afoyfs, jkbick, okhope18, usajvbueno Economics, Finance, International
33 Oil export ban Yes 46% occam, AndrewSabisky, Rebel ran riot, danbazurto, KSpain, Marius, Julius, gyeghikyan, Kleto, TVANKSTA, manunited, Mroochyslav Economics, Politics, US
34 South China ADIZ Yes 40% Titan7160, broflovsky, andreskull, beris520, Robur, KSpain, starbright, banda311, klajoklis, jester, jkbick, usajvbueno International, Security
35 Jurassic World Yes 24% Gor999, Wildcat, roycewebb, BestGuess, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, CT Runner, Michael Lohr, usajvbueno, Predrag, einsteinjs, KC Entertainment, US
36 Adnan Syed Yes 24% Lucky, usajvbueno, 974david, KC, JBS, liz, Random, madre, Testbravo52, Manfred, patrickmeehan5, BlackJackBones Entertainment, US
40 IRA Yes 9% broflovsky, Liza, simon.rodan, Augustinas, occam, jkbick, aarongertler, RCScheffers, Chrisdo, banda311, Gor999, Marius International, Politics
44 Goodell Yes 86% Rote, Rebel ran riot, mazagj2, einsteinjs, 974david, jester, jimjinphx, RobGreco, Pythias, Crea0021, madre, hyperionok Sports, US
45 Syrian refugees 1 million or more 40% ozymandias, andreskull, Robur, okhope18, Jamison, Mdmalseed, MarkH, Shemiran, Milosz, Augustinas, occam, StefanK International
45 Syrian refugees Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive

ANSWER NO LONGER POSSIBLE

13% ozymandias, andreskull, Robur, okhope18, Jamison, Mdmalseed, MarkH, Shemiran, Milosz, Augustinas, occam, StefanK International
45 Syrian refugees Less than 560,000

ANSWER NO LONGER POSSIBLE

15% ozymandias, andreskull, Robur, okhope18, Jamison, Mdmalseed, MarkH, Shemiran, Milosz, Augustinas, occam, StefanK International
45 Syrian refugees More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 30% ozymandias, andreskull, Robur, okhope18, Jamison, Mdmalseed, MarkH, Shemiran, Milosz, Augustinas, occam, StefanK International
46 Bitcoin Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 66% wizard23237, qsmithtx, aarongertler, jb007, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Diplo, Mroochyslav, k13rkeg44rd, fifty-sixty, ccameron, manunited Finance, International
46 Bitcoin Less than 125,000 9% wizard23237, qsmithtx, aarongertler, jb007, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Diplo, Mroochyslav, k13rkeg44rd, fifty-sixty, ccameron, manunited Finance, International
46 Bitcoin More than 250,000 24% wizard23237, qsmithtx, aarongertler, jb007, Rebel ran riot, Marius, Diplo, Mroochyslav, k13rkeg44rd, fifty-sixty, ccameron, manunited Finance, International
47 iPhones Yes 81% cbrophy, Gor999, Rebel ran riot, Mroochyslav, aaseawaf15, Lucky, kevkevkev, einsteinjs, Jamison, croh, Ossipon, RobGreco Business, US
49 USG shutdown Yes 23% starbright, saesousa, occam, okhope18, jkbick, Aaronlane, aarongertler, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Chrisdo, k13rkeg44rd, ten99 Politics, US
50 BOJ easing Yes 44% Titan7160, Franruiz321, beris520, Jamison, Mdmalseed, okhope18, AndrewSabisky, budwiser, Dima K, Chrisdo, Bdelaney, Rebel ran riot Economics, International
51 IAEA access Yes 37% Titan7160, Robur, macker40, Mdmalseed, geoseattleite, Shemiran, banda311, DBlitz, Mikatec, Costarican, budwiser, RCScheffers Geopolitics, International
55 Malaysia controls Yes 29% Titan7160, Franruiz321, KSpain, aarongertler, Bdelaney, banda311, golf800, Gor999, Dido, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, RF Economics, International
56 Winds of Winter Yes 32% Aaronlane, Gor999, Michael Lohr, 974david, Wagle, SullyDC, rvaprof, jimjinphx, RobGreco, Bosco, davecrosby, cellocat Entertainment, US
57 Russia food embargo 0 39% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, evonukd, Franruiz321, andreskull, beris520, Robur, Mdmalseed, starbright, Shemiran, saesousa Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 Russia food embargo All 5% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, evonukd, Franruiz321, andreskull, beris520, Robur, Mdmalseed, starbright, Shemiran, saesousa Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 Russia food embargo Between 1 and 5, inclusive 40% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, evonukd, Franruiz321, andreskull, beris520, Robur, Mdmalseed, starbright, Shemiran, saesousa Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 Russia food embargo More than five, but less than all 14% Titan7160, broflovsky, Liza, evonukd, Franruiz321, andreskull, beris520, Robur, Mdmalseed, starbright, Shemiran, saesousa Economics, Geopolitics, International
61 Syria no-fly zone Yes 9% ilirdecka, nobleistic, evonukd, eq436, andreskull, Tanangel, beris520, simon.rodan, Robur, Alex11, macker40, Mdmalseed International, Security
62 KSA No 88% evonukd, Tanangel, Robur, Alex11, drofter, Shemiran, saesousa, spudgun, occam, AndrewSabisky, Indysafari, aarongertler International, Politics
62 KSA Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 5% evonukd, Tanangel, Robur, Alex11, drofter, Shemiran, saesousa, spudgun, occam, AndrewSabisky, Indysafari, aarongertler International, Politics
62 KSA Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 1% evonukd, Tanangel, Robur, Alex11, drofter, Shemiran, saesousa, spudgun, occam, AndrewSabisky, Indysafari, aarongertler International, Politics
62 KSA Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 2% evonukd, Tanangel, Robur, Alex11, drofter, Shemiran, saesousa, spudgun, occam, AndrewSabisky, Indysafari, aarongertler International, Politics
62 KSA Yes, Someone else 1% evonukd, Tanangel, Robur, Alex11, drofter, Shemiran, saesousa, spudgun, occam, AndrewSabisky, Indysafari, aarongertler International, Politics
63 VW Yes 33% Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Lucky, 974david, jester, snewman, Ossipon, Falconer, madre, hyperionok, jeremylichtman, Manfred Business, Environment, US
64 Putin Abe Yes 45% andreskull, Robur, starbright, geoseattleite, drofter, malaquias, wizard23237, fredgoodguess, jkbick, Conormc61, FuturoMAGE, DavidHume1776 Geopolitics, International
66 RCEP Yes 3% andreskull, starbright, fredgoodguess, ivanovic99, jkbick, Conormc61, Dima K, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, Thors_lil_Cuz, golf800, Gor999 Economics, Geopolitics, International
70 NATO 4 Yes 35% brazilianwitchcraft, andreskull, beris520, Robur, jkbick, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, Wagle, ten99, rwjanssen International, Security
71 Iran launch Before 1 March 2016

BIN SHOULD BE CLOSED AS YES

10% beris520, drofter, CETC, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, Wagle, ten99, rwjanssen, Rebel ran riot, Bklyn_j, Falconer, Marius International, Security
71 Iran launch Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive

BIN SHOULD BE CLOSED AS NO

13% beris520, drofter, CETC, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, Wagle, ten99, rwjanssen, Rebel ran riot, Bklyn_j, Falconer, Marius International, Security
71 Iran launch Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive

BIN SHOULD BE CLOSED AS NO

12% beris520, drofter, CETC, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, Wagle, ten99, rwjanssen, Rebel ran riot, Bklyn_j, Falconer, Marius International, Security
71 Iran launch Not before 1 July 2016

BIN SHOULD BE CLOSED AS NO

62% beris520, drofter, CETC, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, Wagle, ten99, rwjanssen, Rebel ran riot, Bklyn_j, Falconer, Marius International, Security
74 PA Israel halt Yes 25% CETC, AndrewSabisky, rwjanssen, Bklyn_j, Falconer, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, RF, christianmaas, jmenegay, Sjens International, Security
76 NK nuke test Yes 36% brazilianwitchcraft, starbright, Milosz, CETC, gkiljan, 905AJS, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, RCScheffers, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, dukeglk International, Security
77 NATO 4 or 5 No 52% drofter, CETC, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, budwiser, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, gstaneff, Marius, Mroochyslav International, Security
77 NATO 4 or 5 Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 16% drofter, CETC, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, budwiser, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, gstaneff, Marius, Mroochyslav International, Security
77 NATO 4 or 5 Yes, only Article 4 19% drofter, CETC, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, budwiser, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, gstaneff, Marius, Mroochyslav International, Security
77 NATO 4 or 5 Yes, only Article 5 11% drofter, CETC, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, budwiser, Bdelaney, rwjanssen, gstaneff, Marius, Mroochyslav International, Security
78 Panama Canal Yes 22% Milosz, Augustinas, jester, Scooozai, jkbick, qsmithtx, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dgarciahz, RCScheffers, Dima K, rwjanssen Economics, International
79 Putin Nuke Summit Yes 19% CETC, Augustinas, jester, Scooozai, celeryman35, gkiljan, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, aarongertler, Szeven, budwiser, Dima K Geopolitics, International
80 Brexit Yes 52% drofter, Augustinas, Hideous Cheese Blunder, StefanK, Scooozai, DBlitz, celeryman35, gkiljan, budwiser, Judson, RCScheffers, Dima K International, Politics
81 GOP nominee Ben Carson 4% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee Carly Fiorina 1% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee Donald Trump 19% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee Jeb Bush 25% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee Marco Rubio 23% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee None of the above 1% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
81 GOP nominee Ted Cruz 23% Augustinas, Tom L, AndrewSabisky, makertaker, Dima K, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, rwjanssen, Kelvin, RCScheffers, CETC Politics, US
84 Turkey controls Yes 45% CETC, Augustinas, jkbick, dbenedict59, Marius, RF, artem1, sh517, christianmaas, slobodan, dkc, lsgold7 Economics, International
86 ASEAN China Yes 62% CETC, Augustinas, jester, jkbick, celeryman35, Dgarciahz, RCScheffers, REGallahue, Falconer, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, lindsey Geopolitics, International
87 IMF Christine Lagarde will serve a second term 81% drofter, Augustinas, Scooozai, jkbick, celeryman35, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, Dgarciahz, RCScheffers, Dima K, Bdelaney, rwjanssen Geopolitics, International
87 IMF Someone else from Europe 4% drofter, Augustinas, Scooozai, jkbick, celeryman35, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, Dgarciahz, RCScheffers, Dima K, Bdelaney, rwjanssen Geopolitics, International
87 IMF Someone from outside Europe 14% drofter, Augustinas, Scooozai, jkbick, celeryman35, FuturoMAGE, AndrewSabisky, Dgarciahz, RCScheffers, Dima K, Bdelaney, rwjanssen Geopolitics, International
88 Superbowl A team from the American Football Conference 46% Tom L, Gor999, Rote, CT Runner, kevkevkev, einsteinjs, tomh, dms, darius.hinton, Littlefinger, Delorean, patrickmeehan5 Sports, US
88 Superbowl A team from the National Football Conference 53% Tom L, Gor999, Rote, CT Runner, kevkevkev, einsteinjs, tomh, dms, darius.hinton, Littlefinger, Delorean, patrickmeehan5 Sports, US
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