Not looking good for me at all. The one that was most unexpected was China IPO where I’ve been long for a month but was short for a month, and the short month very much outweighed the long month. I only got a slight edge on PSUV, and that’s a topic I actually know less than nothing about. Moral of the story: Hang towards 50% for as long as possible until you’re absolutely certain of the outcome, because being wrong early will kill your accuracy score. I knew this in principle to begin with, now I’m feeling it.
Only interesting thing to note here is that the crowd got Montenegro and Shanghai very wrong as well. In Montenegro everybody was buying the model that nobody wanted to piss off Vlad and the country was too mixed about NATO to pitch. In China IPO for the first month everybody was buying the model that China is bureaucratic and slow and will take a long time to reverse the decision. One month of wrong well dominates one month of right, the way this game is scored.
|Date Ended||Question||Participation Rate||Brier Score||Median Score||Accuracy Score|
|Dec 02, 2015 02:00PM UTC||Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?||100.0%||1.777||1.586||0.191|
|Dec 04, 2015 02:00PM UTC||Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?||96.8085%||0.829||0.159||0.649|
|Dec 06, 2015 02:00PM UTC||Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?||100.0%||0.742||0.747||-0.005|
|Nov 30, 2015 02:00PM UTC||Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?||96.6667%||1.303||1.242||0.059|