My super-picker

Consider a branch of an open question with some categories.

Find the closed questions with intersecting categories.

Find the users who forecast in some closed intersecting question with an accuracy score < 0 who also forecast in the open question.

Record the average accuracy score in closed intersecting questions for each such user.

Pick the top 12 (don’t ask me where I got 12) such users based on best (most negative accuracy).

Record their mean accuracy and weight each user by their accuracy divided by the mean accuracy.

Take the average of each user’s latest forecast in the open question branch times that user’s weight.

Call that the super-picker forecast.

So with that I’m done, I don’t have to think any more, I can just coast on other people’s predictions.

Here’s what I get for that strategy today:

QID Question Branch Prediction Best12 Categories
1 What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? 6.40 or more 39% KSpain, skepticalforecaster, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Dima K, TVANKSTA, vox vox Economics, International
1 What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive 15% KSpain, skepticalforecaster, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Dima K, TVANKSTA, vox vox Economics, International
1 What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? Less than 6.30 19% KSpain, skepticalforecaster, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Dima K, TVANKSTA, vox vox Economics, International
1 What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 24% KSpain, skepticalforecaster, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Dima K, TVANKSTA, vox vox Economics, International
3 Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016? Yes 16% Costarican, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, lsgold7, Dima K, Kleto Geopolitics, International, Security
4 Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016? Yes 59% Wagle, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Dima K, Antacular, Diplo, TVANKSTA, peppone, kormac Finance, International
5 Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016? Yes 73% okhope18, KokaV992, Rebel ran riot, Dido, aaseawaf15, Costarican, Gor999, Wagle, jkbick, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius Economics, Politics, US
6 Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016? Yes 4% jester, Costarican, ilikecoffee, Stewart Edwards, jb007, Thors_lil_Cuz, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd Geopolitics, International
7 Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? Yes 39% jester, Costarican, Uziel, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, lsgold7, Dima K, Kleto Geopolitics, International
8 Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017? Yes 50% jester, Costarican, Stewart Edwards, jb007, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, Wagle, jkbick, Beatmark2, ccameron, Marius, Rebel ran riot Geopolitics, International, Security
9 Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? Yes 25% okhope18, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, Antacular, Amir , Diplo, TVANKSTA, admiralporky Economics, International
12 Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016? Yes 23% Costarican, ilikecoffee, Stewart Edwards, RCScheffers, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, Gor999 Economics, Geopolitics, International
13 Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016? Yes 23% Wagle, ccameron, Marius, TVANKSTA, kormac, ESR, madre, Doina, slobodan, 974david, deannebridget, Raisinville International, Society
14 Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016? Yes 60% jester, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, Rebel ran riot, Rene, TVANKSTA, admiralporky, kormac, gstaneff, madre Health, International
15 Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Yes 30% okhope18, jester, mybaby4929, Costarican, skepticalforecaster, Stewart Edwards, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, Wagle, jkbick, Beatmark2, ccameron Geopolitics, International, Security
17 Question 17 Yes 2% okhope18, jester, Costarican, kksartorius, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, lsgold7 Geopolitics, International
18 Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017? Yes 38% jester, Costarican, ilikecoffee, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, lsgold7, Dima K Economics, Geopolitics, International
19 Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016? Yes 56% okhope18, jester, Costarican, Stewart Edwards, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, Julius, rsk, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot Geopolitics, International, Security
22 Question 22 Yes 23% okhope18, Dido, Costarican, jester, Thors_lil_Cuz, dukeglk, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, mlee, Gor999 International, Politics
23 Question 23 Majority 47% Dido, Stewart Edwards, ccameron, Rene, TVANKSTA, Markmsl, Traindoc, klajoklis, admiralporky, achatkin, JBS, gamingoddess International, Politics
23 Question 23 Not a Plurality 7% Dido, Stewart Edwards, ccameron, Rene, TVANKSTA, Markmsl, Traindoc, klajoklis, admiralporky, achatkin, JBS, gamingoddess International, Politics
23 Question 23 Plurality 44% Dido, Stewart Edwards, ccameron, Rene, TVANKSTA, Markmsl, Traindoc, klajoklis, admiralporky, achatkin, JBS, gamingoddess International, Politics
24 Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? Yes 57% KokaV992, Tom L, MaryB, Darren, Rebel ran riot, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Aaronlane, Gor999, Warren Hatch, aaseawaf15, ilikecoffee Economics, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? All of the above will survive season 6 45% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? Carl 5% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? Carol 14% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? Daryl 9% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? Glenn 20% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
25 Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead? Rick 3% BenP, ShotintheDark, Mroochyslav, Rebel ran riot, sparky178, Gregory, rvaprof, SirRujak, johneyhb, XanX, Fsugirl24, Censusguyz Entertainment, US
29 Question 29 Yes 82% okhope18, Shahar, usajvbueno, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rene, Amir , Rebel ran riot, TVANKSTA, Angturil Geopolitics, International, Politics, Security
30 Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone? Yes 11% usajvbueno, Costarican, ilikecoffee, skepticalforecaster, Stewart Edwards, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, jkbick, Beatmark2, ccameron, Marius, Julius Economics, Geopolitics, International
31 What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive 51% okhope18, jester, usajvbueno, Costarican, skepticalforecaster, jb007, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, Julius Economics, Finance, International
31 What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? Less than $34.00 per barrel 5% okhope18, jester, usajvbueno, Costarican, skepticalforecaster, jb007, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, Julius Economics, Finance, International
31 What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? More than $40.00 per barrel 42% okhope18, jester, usajvbueno, Costarican, skepticalforecaster, jb007, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, Julius Economics, Finance, International
33 Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016? Yes 47% Rebel ran riot, danbazurto, KSpain, TVANKSTA, Marius, Julius, lsgold7, Darren, Kleto, manunited, Diplo, Rob44 Economics, Politics, US
34 Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016? Yes 46% jester, KSpain, usajvbueno, Costarican, RCScheffers, jkbick, Beatmark2, ccameron, Marius, Julius, rsk, k13rkeg44rd International, Security
35 Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year? Yes 27% Mroochyslav, Wildcat, Rebel ran riot, roycewebb, BestGuess, CT Runner, The Brown Recluse , Michael Lohr, usajvbueno, Predrag, einsteinjs, KC Entertainment, US
36 Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016? Yes 18% The Brown Recluse , Lucky, usajvbueno, KC, madre, Testbravo52, JBS, liz, Random, patrickmeehan5, Manfred, BlackJackBones Entertainment, US
38 Question 38 Yes 28% okhope18, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Costarican, jester, Angturil, dukeglk, Uziel, Gor999, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius Politics, US
39 Question 39 Yes 59% okhope18, Aaronlane, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, dukeglk, Uziel, RCScheffers, Marius, Dima K, Kleto, Rene, Amir Politics, US
40 Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? Yes 2% Costarican, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, Kleto, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA International, Politics
44 Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season? Yes 83% Rebel ran riot, Rote, mazagj2, einsteinjs, jester, jimjinphx, madre, RobGreco, Pythias, Crea0021, Censusguyz, Delorean Sports, US
45 As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? 1 million or more 24% okhope18, Dido, RCScheffers, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Dima K, Antacular, Rene, Amir International
45 As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive 11% okhope18, Dido, RCScheffers, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Dima K, Antacular, Rene, Amir International
45 As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? Less than 560,000 14% okhope18, Dido, RCScheffers, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Dima K, Antacular, Rene, Amir International
45 As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 49% okhope18, Dido, RCScheffers, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Dima K, Antacular, Rene, Amir International
46 What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016? Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 60% jb007, ccameron, Marius, Rebel ran riot, manunited, Diplo, rbertoni01, kormac, fifty-sixty, madre, Doina, slobodan Finance, International
46 What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016? Less than 125,000 11% jb007, ccameron, Marius, Rebel ran riot, manunited, Diplo, rbertoni01, kormac, fifty-sixty, madre, Doina, slobodan Finance, International
46 What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016? More than 250,000 28% jb007, ccameron, Marius, Rebel ran riot, manunited, Diplo, rbertoni01, kormac, fifty-sixty, madre, Doina, slobodan Finance, International
47 Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? Yes 93% Mroochyslav, cbrophy, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, The Brown Recluse , Lucky, kevkevkev, Falconer, einsteinjs, Jamison, jeremylichtman, croh Business, US
48 Question 48 Majority 42% ccameron, Marius, Gor999, lsgold7, TVANKSTA, Dustydust, slobodan, Doina, deannebridget, Raisinville, AlexisTocqueville, yaifuz26 International, Politics
48 Question 48 Not a plurality 11% ccameron, Marius, Gor999, lsgold7, TVANKSTA, Dustydust, slobodan, Doina, deannebridget, Raisinville, AlexisTocqueville, yaifuz26 International, Politics
48 Question 48 Plurality 46% ccameron, Marius, Gor999, lsgold7, TVANKSTA, Dustydust, slobodan, Doina, deannebridget, Raisinville, AlexisTocqueville, yaifuz26 International, Politics
49 Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? Yes 19% okhope18, Aaronlane, Rebel ran riot, Costarican, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, jkbick, KSpain, Beatmark2, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd Politics, US
50 Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program? Yes 70% okhope18, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Dima K, Antacular, Diplo, pdmillington, kormac Economics, International
51 Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016? Yes 25% Dido, Costarican, DBlitz, Thors_lil_Cuz, Uziel, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7 Geopolitics, International
52 Question 52 Yes 52% KSpain, Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, lsgold7, Kleto, Antacular Geopolitics, International
53 Question 53 Both 15% KSpain, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, Gor999, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA, vox vox, pdmillington, admiralporky International, Politics
53 Question 53 Ciudadanos 33% KSpain, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, Gor999, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA, vox vox, pdmillington, admiralporky International, Politics
53 Question 53 Neither 32% KSpain, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, Gor999, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA, vox vox, pdmillington, admiralporky International, Politics
53 Question 53 Podemos 18% KSpain, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, Gor999, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA, vox vox, pdmillington, admiralporky International, Politics
54 Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year? Yes 43% jester, KSpain, Costarican, DBlitz, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999 Geopolitics, International
55 Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016? Yes 18% KSpain, Dido, ccameron, Marius, LitheLyricist, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, manunited, Diplo, TVANKSTA, kormac, Mondak Economics, International
56 Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs? Yes 35% Aaronlane, Gor999, Michael Lohr, Wagle, SullyDC, rvaprof, jimjinphx, RobGreco, Bosco, davecrosby, Censusguyz, cellocat Entertainment, US
57 How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? 0 59% Costarican, DBlitz, Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, datap, Kleto, Antacular Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? All 2% Costarican, DBlitz, Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, datap, Kleto, Antacular Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? Between 1 and 5, inclusive 23% Costarican, DBlitz, Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, datap, Kleto, Antacular Economics, Geopolitics, International
57 How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? More than five, but less than all 13% Costarican, DBlitz, Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, Gor999, datap, Kleto, Antacular Economics, Geopolitics, International
58 Question 58 Remember to state your question first. Then, how optimistic are you about the Iran deal? (100% = optimistic; 0% = pessimistic) 36% KSpain, Thors_lil_Cuz, Uziel, lsgold7, Kleto, Amir , TVANKSTA, Angturil, Pachi, Hideous Cheese Blunder, slobodan, deannebridget International, Open
59 Open: What events do you foresee happening in the rest of 2015? Probability of event 56% jkbick, LitheLyricist, Rebel ran riot, Rene, Amir , TVANKSTA, Darrel57Murphy, Dmgil3y, Doina, slobodan, 974david, deannebridget International, Open
60 Open: What events do you foresee happening in 2016? Probability of event 72% Costarican, DBlitz, Anthony, Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Rebel ran riot, Rene, TVANKSTA, Personette, Pachi, Dustydust International, Open
61 Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? Yes 7% mybaby4929, Costarican, DBlitz, Stewart Edwards, Jasha, Thors_lil_Cuz, dukeglk, Uziel, Wagle, jkbick, Beatmark2, ccameron International, Security
62 Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? No 83% Costarican, jester, Anthony, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Kleto, Amir International, Politics
62 Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 3% Costarican, jester, Anthony, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Kleto, Amir International, Politics
62 Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 2% Costarican, jester, Anthony, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Kleto, Amir International, Politics
62 Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 2% Costarican, jester, Anthony, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Kleto, Amir International, Politics
62 Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? Yes, Someone else 8% Costarican, jester, Anthony, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Kleto, Amir International, Politics
63 Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016? Yes 33% Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Lucky, Falconer, jester, jeremylichtman, madre, snewman, Ossipon, nls, patrickmeehan5, hyperionok Business, Environment, US
64 Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016? Yes 31% Thors_lil_Cuz, Wagle, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7, datap, Dima K, Amir Geopolitics, International
65 Question 65 Yes 47% DBlitz, danbazurto, Thors_lil_Cuz, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, FuturoMAGE, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, lsgold7 International, Politics
66 Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016? Yes 2% Thors_lil_Cuz, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Gor999, Dima K, Amir , Diplo, TVANKSTA, Angturil, kormac Economics, Geopolitics, International
70 Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017? Yes 40% Thors_lil_Cuz, RCScheffers, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, lsgold7, datap, Rene, Amir International, Security
71 When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? Before 1 March 2016 14% RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, datap, Rene, Amir , Laurens2802 International, Security
71 When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive 15% RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, datap, Rene, Amir , Laurens2802 International, Security
71 When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive 9% RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, datap, Rene, Amir , Laurens2802 International, Security
71 When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? Not before 1 July 2016 60% RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, datap, Rene, Amir , Laurens2802 International, Security
72 Question 72 Yes 45% jester, RCScheffers, Wagle, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rene, Amir , Diplo, Angturil, WP Geopolitics, International, Politics, Security
73 Question 73 Yes 19% dukeglk, RCScheffers, Wagle, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, datap, Kleto International, Security
74 Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016? Yes 11% Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Angturil, admiralporky, kormac, Mondak, madre, Vermilion Slim, RF, Doina, slobodan International, Security
75 Question 75 Yes 2% RCScheffers, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, mlee, k13rkeg44rd, Rene, Angturil, Markmsl, gstaneff, tfolkes, madre International, Politics
76 Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? Yes 53% dukeglk, RCScheffers, ccameron, Marius, mlee, Rebel ran riot, lsgold7, Rene, Angturil, rbertoni01, kormac, wedamj International, Security
77 Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? No 58% jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, vox vox, admiralporky, kormac, gstaneff, Personette, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre International, Security
77 Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 8% jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, vox vox, admiralporky, kormac, gstaneff, Personette, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre International, Security
77 Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Yes, only Article 4 24% jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, vox vox, admiralporky, kormac, gstaneff, Personette, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre International, Security
77 Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Yes, only Article 5 8% jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, vox vox, admiralporky, kormac, gstaneff, Personette, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre International, Security
78 Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016? Yes 23% jester, RCScheffers, jkbick, ccameron, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, TVANKSTA, admiralporky, kormac, Traindoc Economics, International
79 Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016? Yes 18% jester, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, lsgold7, Dima K, Amir , admiralporky, kormac, Personette, fifty-sixty, p_odo, madre Geopolitics, International
80 Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership? Yes 41% DBlitz, RCScheffers, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, TVANKSTA, vox vox, Markmsl, admiralporky, Hideous Cheese Blunder International, Politics
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Ben Carson 0% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Carly Fiorina 0% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Donald Trump 12% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Jeb Bush 25% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Marco Rubio 39% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? None of the above 7% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
81 Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Ted Cruz 15% Tom L, Rebel ran riot, aaseawaf15, Angturil, RCScheffers, TVANKSTA, FuturoMAGE, Marius, lsgold7, Dima K, Rene, Rob44 Politics, US
84 Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ? Yes 55% jkbick, Marius, lsgold7, kormac, madre, levett, RF, slobodan, christianmaas, GeneH, jeremylichtman, Jean-Pierre Economics, International
85 Question 85 Yes 34% Marius, k13rkeg44rd, lsgold7, Dima K, madre, RF, slobodan, christianmaas, GeneH, Gleb_Kabanov, kormac, einsteinjs International, Politics
86 Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016? Yes 68% jester, RCScheffers, jkbick, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Rene, kormac, fifty-sixty, madre, dms, RF, slobodan Geopolitics, International
87 Who will be the next managing director of the IMF? Christine Lagarde will serve a second term 88% RCScheffers, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Dima K, Rene, vox vox, kormac, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre Geopolitics, International
87 Who will be the next managing director of the IMF? Someone else from Europe 6% RCScheffers, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Dima K, Rene, vox vox, kormac, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre Geopolitics, International
87 Who will be the next managing director of the IMF? Someone from outside Europe 5% RCScheffers, jkbick, FuturoMAGE, Marius, k13rkeg44rd, Dima K, Rene, vox vox, kormac, Mondak, fifty-sixty, madre Geopolitics, International
88 Which team will win the NFLs Super Bowl in 2016? A team from the American Football Conference 49% Tom L, Rote, kevkevkev, einsteinjs, dms, patrickmeehan5, Littlefinger, slobodan, khoshea, Raisinville, kbub, cebjs Sports, US
88 Which team will win the NFLs Super Bowl in 2016? A team from the National Football Conference 50% Tom L, Rote, kevkevkev, einsteinjs, dms, patrickmeehan5, Littlefinger, slobodan, khoshea, Raisinville, kbub, cebjs Sports, US
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