Counterfactual marginal running Brier score analysis

For each open question, for each possible answer, plot the running Brier score assuming the answer is False and that the answer is True, for myself and the crowd.   Assess confidence in the crowd and then pick the answer and spread which would lead to the best accuracy score, if it is correct.

The main thing I learn from this is that for a question where the crowd is say at 25%, the impact on crowd Brier score vs mine is very asymmetric if the final answer is 0% or 100%.  This is good to know when considering a flip-flop.

1. What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: USDCNY, renminbi, weakening
  1. The IMF stamps its approval on the RMB
  2. RMB: What’s in store for the new reserve currency? – ANZ
  3. MarketsAsian markets advance through data deluge
  4. De Beers Ends Control of Oldest Diamond Mine With Petra Sale
  5. Eskom Must Strengthen Balance Sheet, South Africa Minister Says
  6. Asian Morning Briefing: US Stocks Decline
  7. PMI drops to 6-year low
  8. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.3750, 9th straight yuan weakening fix
  9. Canadian dollar may not be weak enough to get the economic job …
  10. IFR Markets ForexWatch Asia Regional Daily Briefing

3. Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Russia, deliver, S-300, S-400, Iran
  1. Meetings between Turkish, Russian military reveal that Moscow had …
  2. Russia to move S-300 missile systems to Syria base
  3. Russia Agrees To Deliver S-300 Missile Systems To Iran
  4. Sophisticated Russian S-400 Air Defense Systems Reportedly …
  5. 4 Ways Russia’s Military Is More Advanced Than You Might Think
  6. Russian deployment of S-400 in Syria unlikely, expert says
  7. ISRAELI & RUSSIAN PILOTS FLY CLEAR OF EACH OTHER OVER …
  8. Russia To Deliver Advanced Intercept Missiles to Iran by Year-end
  9. Iran says Russia to deliver S-300 missile defense system
  10. Russia Preparing to Send S-300 Missile Systems for Iran by 2016

4. Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Shanghai, Shenzhen, IPO
  1. Victoria’s Secret, Calvin Klein supplier becomes billionaire
  2. 10 Top Cities Around The World To Launch Your Startup
  3. China’s STO Express to go public in $2.6 bln reverse takeover deal
  4. China to Lift Ban on IPOs
  5. Auto Sales, Nokia’s Deal and a Vote on Anthem-Cigna Merger
  6. China Overnight Money Rate Rises to One-Month High as IPOs Start
  7. China resumes IPOs
  8. Headhunter seeking $62.6 million on ChiNext
  9. Shanghai volatile after slump, Asia awaits data releases
  10. Shanghai Extends Fall On Broker Woes: How To Play Beijing’s …

5. Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Export-Import Bank, United States, re-authorized
  1. Schumer: Highway bill will include Export-Import Bank reauthorization
  2. Schumer: Highway bill will include reauthorization of Export-Import …
  3. Export/Import Bank vital to local businesses
  4. Fred Morgan: Export-Import Bank nears reauthorization
  5. Export-Import Bank close to reopening after House includes …
  6. Heitkamp: Export-Import Bank crucial for North Dakota businesses
  7. Five-year highway bill proposed, with higher auto fines
  8. Cardinal Resources Update on the Reauthorization of the U.S. …
  9. US business plans for investment, hiring hit 3-year low
  10. House Votes to Revive Export-Import Bank

6. Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: trilateral, Xi, Jinping,, Abe,, Park
  1. Park vows to meet emissions goal
  2. Abe affirms Japan-U.S. ties at ASEAN summit
  3. Where to now for ROKChinaJapan trilateral relations?
  4. Leaders of South Korea and Japan Meet in Effort to Mend Ties
  5. China’s Xi Jinping Talks Peace, Not War, Heading Off Conflicts In …
  6. FACT SHEET: Advancing the Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific
  7. The Chinese Can Cut Trade Deals, Too
  8. Park-Abe reconciliation comes on heels of TPP, China-Japan thaw
  9. Abe-Park first summit eyed for late October
  10. Reef knots

7. Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Iran, release, Rezaian
  1. This week, Jason Rezaian will have been in an Iranian prison for …
  2. Iran sentences journalist Jason Rezaian to prison
  3. When Will Iran Free Journalist Jason Rezaian?
  4. ABC and NBC Ignore Iran Sentencing Washington Post Reporter …
  5. UN Investigators Urge Iran to Free Washington Post’s Jason …
  6. Popular Iranian Poet, Songwriter Arrested
  7. Iran Says It Sentenced Washington Post Reporter to Prison
  8. Exclusive: Secret U.S. Hostage Held By Taliban Allies
  9. The Case of Lori Berenson
  10. Iran sends a message with Jason Rezaian’s conviction

8. Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: North Korea, launch, land, ICBM
  1. Turkey shoots down Russian Su-24: What NATO can learn
  2. Get ready, China: This is why Australia needs nuclear weapons
  3. America’s Next Stealth Bomber: A Nuclear-Armed Bomber?
  4. Saturday night’s mystery light not a UFO
  5. JAMES LYONS, RICHARD FISHER: A new armed peace in the …
  6. Revealed: China Tests Secret Missile Capable of Hitting US Satellites
  7. Don’t forget the bomb
  8. Time To Come In From The Cold (War): Nuclear Force Structure For …
  9. North Korea unveils new version of KN-08 ICBM
  10. Satellites, Warheads and Rockets: Is North Korea’s Space Program …

9. Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Venezuela, Petroleos de Venezuela, default
  1. Petroleos de Venezuela Weighs Bond-Refinancing Plan
  2. Venezuela Election: Hold PDVSA Bonds, Though “Credit Event May …
  3. Venezuela Liquidating Assets As Economic Crisis Worsens
  4. These 30-Cent Bonds Are Barclays’s Top Pick in Venezuela Default
  5. Venezuela Avoiding Default Again Shows Doomsayers May Be Wrong
  6. Could the oil slump push this country to default?
  7. A Diagnosis of Venezuela’s Suffering Oil Industry
  8. Venezuela Default Risk: Overstated In Election Year?
  9. Handicapping A Venezuelan Default: Barclays
  10. Venezuela Debt Default? Amid Oil Slump, Fears Rise Again After …

12. Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: OPEC
  1. Why OPEC’s plan to balance oil markets backfired
  2. Oil tiptoes higher as traders wait for supply data, OPEC meeting
  3. Alberta’s carbon tax should comfort OPEC amid Paris climate talks
  4. Shorting OPEC, hedge funds leave crude prices at risk from recoil …
  5. Will OPEC Cut Oil Production This Week?
  6. Oil oscillates around $42.00, OPEC meeting eyed
  7. OPEC November oil output rises
  8. OPEC Should Buddy Up with Hedge Funds
  9. Analyzing OPEC Crude Oil Production in November
  10. Southwestern Energy (SWN) Stock Slumps, Oil Prices Retreat …

13. Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Venice, ban, Jean, Deux, Mamans, Piccolo, Uovo
  1. Pope Francis ‘praises gay children’s book’ banned in Venice
  2. Book Ban in Venice Ignites a Gay Rights Battle
  3. Italian authors ask Venice to ban their books after gay children’s …
  4. Elton John Hits Out over Venice Same-Sex Schoolbooks Ban
  5. An Italian City Bans Children’s Books That Preach Acceptance
  6. Elton speaks out against book ban
  7. Banned Books Week Roundup 2015

14. Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Africa, wild, poliovirus
  1. Statement on the Seventh IHR Emergency Committee meeting …
  2. Commonwealth leaders, others unite to end Polio
  3. Turnbull commits to polio eradication
  4. As Nigeria Makes Progress In Fight Against Polio
  5. Polio – Almost History
  6. Injectable Anti-Polio Drug to Be Rolled Out Next Month
  7. Rotary International director visits Media
  8. OIC Conference of Health Ministers
  9. How to make a virus disappear
  10. A polio milestone: One strain left in the crosshairs

15. Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Bashar, Assad
  1. Russia will change its mind on propping up Syrian president Bashar …
  2. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad says Russia’s support changes balance on …
  3. France: Assad’s troops could help fight ISIS
  4. Christian friend of Bashar al-Assad could become President of …
  5. Bashar Assad Likely To Outlast Barack Obama In Office
  6. Allowing Bashar Assad to continue leading Syria is ‘unimaginable …
  7. Bashar al-Assad and the ‘Children of Monsters’
  8. Bashar Assad a minor player in Syrian turmoil
  9. Syria’s Assad accuses France of ‘supporting terrorism’
  10. Iran and Russia reiterate support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad

18. Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: TTIP
  1. The European commission consults all stakeholders on TTIP, not …
  2. Big Oil, TTIP and the Scramble for Europe
  3. TTIP talks: EU alleged to have given ExxonMobil access to …
  4. TTIP trade talks: Germany urges US to let MPs see texts
  5. TTIP’s Regulatory Cooperation And The Politics Of ‘Learning’
  6. TTIP transparency: Commission publishes detailed report on 11th …
  7. Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership: European …
  8. Exposed: ‘Full Range of Collusion’ Between Big Oil and TTIP Trade …
  9. TTIP could benefit renewables – NGO
  10. TTIP Globalization

19. Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Iran, host, head, G7
  1. Gulf states, G7 pledge $1.8 bln in refugee aid
  2. On-the-Record Conference Call on the President’s Travel to …
  3. At the G7: President Obama’s Trip to Germany
  4. Forget the G7 summit Bilderberg is where the big guns go
  5. G-7 Leaders Grapple With Stronger Action Against Russia, Islamic …
  6. Over sea bream in New York, the UN’s secretary-general talks about …
  7. Canon EOS M3
  8. In Germany, a tale of two summits
  9. Why Won’t the G20 Address the Refugee Crisis?
  10. France ‘opens war crimes inquiry against Assad regime’ in Syria: UN …

24. Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: fed, rate, funds, increase
  1. Economists Overwhelmingly Expect Fed to Raise Interest Rates in …
  2. Dollar Drops as Fed’s Evans Says Rate Increase Makes Him Nervous
  3. Mortgage borrowers, don’t fear a Fed rate hike
  4. Traders Now See 70% Chance of Fed Rate Increase in December
  5. Fed’s Evans Says December FOMC Rate Decision Makes Him …
  6. Treasuries Tumble as Jobs Gains Back Case for Fed Rate Increase
  7. Fed Rate Hike Impact on Money Centers, Stage 1
  8. The Fed’s Unwarranted Skittishness
  9. Gold Fund Sales Skyrocket on Fed Rate Talk
  10. Fed Rate-Increase Odds at 74% in Market as Pimco Sees Liftoff

25. Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: first, die, Season, 6, Walking, Dead
  1. ‘The Walking Dead’ Season 6, Episode 8: ‘My Dad Killed Your Dad’
  2. The Walking Dead Season 6 News: Episode 8 “Start to Finish …
  3. The Walking Dead Season 6: A Spoiler-Filled Preview of the Walker …
  4. The Walking Dead Season 6 News: Return Date, Trailers, Photos …
  5. The Walking Dead season 6 episode 5 review: Maggie drops huge …
  6. The Walking Dead season 6 recap: Wolves, Glenn’s brush with …
  7. ‘The Walking Dead’ Season 6 Spoilers: Three Characters Negan …
  8. ‘The Walking Dead’ Season 6 Midseason Premiere Is Quite Deadly
  9. ‘The Walking Dead’ Ratings Steady With Record-Breaking 2014 …
  10. The Second Half Of The Walking Dead Season 6 Will be Super …

30. Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Grexit, 2017
  1. The Guardian view on Labour’s European campaign: vital message …
  2. Frexit talk possible after attacks: Morgan Stanley
  3. The Fear of the Other Europe
  4. More misery ahead for Greeks as economy set to shrink again
  5. A More Ambitious Agenda Needed to Combat Greek Debt
  6. Brexit: Irrelevant threat or close reality?
  7. Germany’s Leadership Role In Europe A Dilemma
  8. Lords back vote for 16 and 17-year olds in UK referendum
  9. Brexit is ‘not going to happen,’ says EU’s Juncker
  10. CrunchedCredit.com’s 6th Annual Golden Turkey Awards

31. What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: lowest, closing, spot, West, Texas, Intermediate, crude, oil,, US, Energy, Information, Agency,
  1. Traders Tiptoe Past Record NatGas Storage; December Bidweek …
  2. Geopolitical tensions drive buoyancy for Oil and gold
  3. Record Oil at Sea: Crude Oil Prices Hit a 10-Week Low
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Rises Slowly as the US Gears Up for Winter
  5. State of emergency declared in Crimea after pylons carrying …
  6. Three Oil Companies Catching Fire: Energy Transfer Equity LP …
  7. Crude Futures Fall for Second Day on U.S. Supplies, Dollar
  8. Energy stocks flying under the radar right now: Kinder Morgan Inc …
  9. Dollar rises with debt as minor losses on China mute stock gains
  10. U.S. Stocks Gain While Treasuries Decline as Risk-Taking Returns

33. Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Congress, pass, legislation, lifting, oil, export, ban
  1. Hoeven: Lifting crude oil export ban a smart move
  2. Hoeven plans to add lifting of oil export ban to highway bill
  3. Votes in Congress Move to Undercut Climate Pledge
  4. Gardner: Lifting Ban on Oil Exports This Year Would Ease Tensions
  5. Ryan to Pelosi: Budget situation getting urgent
  6. Democrats Accuse McConnell of Blocking Zadroga Act
  7. We can end crude oil export ban via highway bill
  8. John Hoeven: Time to lift the crude oil export ban
  9. ATR Supports Amendments Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban
  10. Fossil Fuel Projects in Pacific Northwest Could Be as Harmful as 5 …

34. Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: China, South, Sea, ADIZ
  1. Feature Oil and Water: Mapping the South China Sea
  2. Australia Doesn’t Have to Choose Between the US and China
  3. Did China Try Restricting US Bombers in the South China Sea?
  4. Military Facilities Aren’t Militarization in the South China Sea …
  5. South China Sea tensions unlikely to lead to war
  6. Chinese J-11 Fighters Exercise in the South China Sea After US …
  7. Managing a multipolar world
  8. South China Sea: FONOPS not enough, time for boots on the …
  9. East China Sea Dispute Continues to Plague Japan-Sino Diplomacy
  10. Experts Worry China May Soon Establish South China Sea ADIZ

35. Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Jurassic, World, 2015, Titanic, highest-grossing
  1. Numbers of the devil: Star Wars and the dark arts of box office analysis
  2. Damon Lindelof Admits Keeping Khan a Secret in Star Trek Into …
  3. Fred Dekker Confirms the Predator Sequel Script is Officially Complete
  4. Why 2015 has been a blockbuster year for cinema
  5. Colin Trevorrow Won’t Screw Up the Next ‘Star Wars’ Movie, Promise
  6. Will audiences turn out in record force for ‘Star Wars’?
  7. Why Joss Whedon’s Serenity is More Than a Simple Sci-Fi Western
  8. The Force Awakens Will Be Rated PG-13
  9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens breaks box-office records with $50 …
  10. Empire Releases 6 New Star Wars: The Force Awakens Covers

36. Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Adnan, Syed,, Serial, podcast,, overturned
  1. NPR Podcast ‘Serial’s Adnan Syed Will Be The Subject Of A New Book
  2. Serial’s Adnan Syed granted motion to show new evidence at …
  3. Adnan Syed’s defense attorney says he has new evidence to …
  4. Rabia Chaudry, who brought case to ‘Serial’ creator, to talk at …
  5. Court reopens appeal of Adnan Syed, subject of “Serial” podcast
  6. There’s A Chance Adnan Syed From ‘Serial’ Might Overturn His …
  7. Filing in ‘Serial’ appeal postponed
  8. Serial catch-up: what happened next in the case of Adnan Syed?
  9. Syed’s attorney says cellphone expert’s affidavit bolsters case for …
  10. Guy at the center of the wildly popular ‘Serial’ podcast just got one …

40. Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: suspension, Northern, Irish, Assembly
  1. Welsh Government badger vaccination project suspended due to …
  2. The Latest: US House Leader Won’t Pay for Climate Deal
  3. Theresa Villiers rules out suspension of Northern Ireland Assembly
  4. Climate Change and what Northern Ireland is doing about it.
  5. The Latest: Pope warns ‘it’s now or never’ on climate
  6. Stormont crisis: Bid to adjourn Northern Ireland Assembly fails
  7. Today in History – Dec. 1
  8. The Latest: Putin offers emissions cut that could be a rise
  9. From a league of their own: How big-money foreign imports are …
  10. Martin McGuinness urges Cameron not to suspend Stormont assembly

44. Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Roger, Goodell, commissioner, NFL
  1. Reid: NFL commissioner Roger Goodell owes fans a decision on LA …
  2. Did Roger Goodell hear the Giants? Commissioner says NFL will re …
  3. Roger Goodell draws distinction between DFS, season-long fantasy
  4. From Roger Goodell to Geno Smith: NFL’s biggest turkeys of 2015
  5. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on future Arizona Super Bowls …
  6. Patriots owners spotted with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell …
  7. The NFL, Roger Goodell And Domestic Violence: An Appeal For …
  8. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell Spotted With Yahoo Execs: Is …
  9. NFL Commissioner Defends League After Frank Gifford Brain …
  10. Adrian Peterson praised by Roger Goodell for NFL return

45. As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: refugees, migrants, UNHCR, report, arrived, Europe, sea
  1. Flow of refugee and migrant children into Greece doubles, UN …
  2. Number of migrants reaching Europe dips but 1 million in sight for …
  3. UN decries Balkans border curbs on refugees; arrivals in Greece fall
  4. The EU’s ‘Short-Sighted’ Migration Deal With Turkey
  5. EXPLAINED: The Syrian refugee crisis and the EU-Turkey Summit in …
  6. October’s migrant, refugee flow to Europe roughly matched whole of …
  7. The Biggest African Refugee Camp No One Talks About
  8. Migrant Flow Shows No Sign of Winter Slowdown; UN Expects …
  9. Refugees should not be blamed for the Paris attacks
  10. UN expects Europe’s refugee flow to top 1 million in 2015

46. What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: average, number, Bitcoin, transactions, per, day
  1. How Blockchain And Virtual Reality Can Fix The Music Industry …
  2. Bitcoin Price Climbs to 3-Week High
  3. FX trading not ready to benefit from safeguards of blockchain
  4. Everyone Says Bitcoin Is Back. But It Never Really Left
  5. Shift is a debit card for your bitcoin wallet
  6. Exclusive Interview with the Media Division Manager of 1Broker
  7. Bitcoin back in favor after price pop and drop
  8. ‘Armada’ Extortionist Hackers Bulldoze ‘Secure’ Email Services But …
  9. Backpage.com evens the score in lawsuit against Dart
  10. 9 enterprise tech trends for 2016 and beyond

47. Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Apple, million, iPhones, December, quarter
  1. Apple stock slides on claims of slashed iPhone component orders …
  2. Apple added 26 new iPhone carrier partners worldwide in …
  3. Report: Apple now at over 100 million iPhones in use in the US
  4. UBS’s Apple iPhone Survey Showing Demand In-line With Analyst …
  5. For Apple, The Negatives Outweigh The Positives
  6. Apple: Foxconn Results Indicate Strong iPhone Growth This Quarter
  7. Apple: December iPhones Just Fine, Says UBS, March Might Be Soft
  8. Apple’s iPhone China October Sales In Good Shape
  9. Credit Suisse Slices Apple Estimates Based On Channel Checks
  10. Apple iPhone winning where it counts: profits

49. Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: government, shutdown, United, States
  1. Could the government shut down over refugees?
  2. Analyst: Odds of government shutdown 50-50
  3. America’s Next Top Budget Controversy
  4. Syrian refugee fight sparks government shutdown threat
  5. Congress faces raft of issues in spending deadline to avoid shutdown
  6. The five things that could still force a government shutdown
  7. GOP leaders using new playbook in shutdown fight
  8. HUFFPOST HILL – Government Shutdown Tantalizingly Possible!
  9. McConnell: Syrian Refugee Issue to be ‘Dealt With’ in US Funding Bill
  10. Overnight Defense: Pentagon deploying task force to fight ISIS

50. Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Bank, Japan, increase, asset, purchases
  1. Bank of Japan’s QE efforts seen stimulating inflation
  2. RPT-Chinese banks miss out on the party as Asian M&As pass $1 …
  3. Most Asian Stocks Drop on Factory Picture as Dollar Holds Losses
  4. Moody’s: Reliance on global banks’ deferred tax assets poses …
  5. European Central Bank may surprise with size of new stimulus
  6. Japan pension whale stands by stocks after $64 billion loss
  7. A New World Order
  8. Tokyo’s Test: Policy vs. Demographics
  9. ULI, PwC Survey Ranks Tokyo and Sydney as Top Markets in Asia
  10. Long-term foreign investors shifting money to Tokyo shares

51. Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: dispute, IAEA, access, Iranian, site, Joint, Commission
  1. US spin on access to Iranian sites has distorted the issue
  2. Citing Nuke Deal, Netanyahu Says Iran Can Delay Inspections for …
  3. Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Really Getting a 24-Day Pass?
  4. Parsing the Iran Deal
  5. Ex-IAEA Leader: 24-Day Inspection Delay Will Boost Iranian Nuclear …
  6. Schumer’s claims about ’24 days before you can inspect’ in Iran
  7. CAROL A. TABER: “Verification” in the Iran deal is even more of a …
  8. Iran deal could prevent a nuclear-armed foe, but it comes with risks
  9. The Power of Precise Predictions
  10. Read more on the Iran nuclear deal

54. Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: NATO, invite, Montenegro, alliance
  1. Diplomats: NATO to invite Montenegro to join alliance
  2. NATO ministers to boost security, defense measures for Turkey
  3. Montenegrin Party 95% Sure Country to Receive NATO Invitation …
  4. NATO discusses Montenegro’s path to membership
  5. Pro-Russian Parties Seek To Derail Montenegro’s NATO Bid
  6. NATO chief: Russia interference boosts Montenegro chances
  7. Western appeasement of Putin regime threatens Ukraine’s NATO …
  8. NATO split on message to send Georgia on membership hopes
  9. Afghanistan, relations with Russia, Montenegro dominate busy …
  10. Sec. of State John Kerry in Brussels for NATO talks

55. Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Malaysia, impose, capital, controls
  1. Court Spats, Violence Underscore Rising Political Strife in Cambodia
  2. NAJIB REITERATES NO RINGGIT PEG OR CAPITAL CONTROLS
  3. BNM says no ‘direct communication’ with ex-1MDB executives
  4. US House blocks carbon emission rules, Obama to veto
  5. Emerging markets: Malaysia’s stricken ASEAN host pageantry
  6. Malaysia won’t peg currency, impose capital control: PM
  7. Trans-Pacific Partnership – investment protection and investor-state …
  8. Malaysia’s 3Q economic growth slows down at 4.7%
  9. Double or nothing is way into lucrative Indonesian banking
  10. Malaysia sees no need for capital control measures: Central bank

56. Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Winds, Winter, released, Season, 6, Game, Thrones
  1. ‘Winds of Winter’ to Have Spring 2016 Release Date? Here’s …
  2. ‘Winds of Winter’ Release Date: Book Unlikely To Be Out Before …
  3. Game of Thrones Season 6 News and Everything to Know
  4. ‘Winds of Winter’ Release Date & Spoilers: Happening Before ‘Game …
  5. When Will ‘Winds of Winter’ Come Out? Here’s What George R.R. …
  6. Author George RR Martin Teases About Shocking Twists In ‘Winds …
  7. George R.R. Martin, ‘Game Of Thrones’ Season 6 Delayed? ‘Winds …
  8. ‘Winds of Winter’ release date: ‘GOT’ season 6 pushed back to make …
  9. ‘Winds of Winter’ Release Date News: George R.R. Martin Teases …
  10. Winds Of Winter Release Date: Start Rereading Game Of Thrones …

57. How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Russia, remove, embargo
  1. Russia-Turkey Relations Heading Into ‘Dead-End,’ Putin Says as …
  2. Putin’s Fortress Russia Takes Its Toll
  3. President Obama bows to environmentalists on oil export ban
  4. Silhan Ozcelik is a hero
  5. Opposition Wants a Say in Choosing Syrian Leaders
  6. Before ‘IS’ emerged, Syria already had a full-blown civil war
  7. Bring Russia, Syria and Iran to the Table to Defeat ISIS
  8. Russia has started process of delivering S300 missiles to Iran …
  9. CPUSA Statement to 17th International Meeting of Communist and …
  10. Clear Skies: Iran About to Acquire Russian S-300 Missile Defense …

61. Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: no-fly, zone, Syria
  1. Downed Russian Military Jet Heightens Debate Over Syria No-Fly …
  2. No-Fly Zone in Syria Is a No-No
  3. Russian S-400 missiles turn most of Syria into no-fly zone, halt US …
  4. The Reckless Proposal to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Syria
  5. Please Do Not No-Fly-Zone Us Into World War III
  6. Clinton widens gap with Obama on Syria, calling for no-fly zone
  7. Carson: If Russian Planes Violate a No-Fly Zone, ‘Shoot Them Down’
  8. McCain, Graham: US Countries Must Establish No-Fly Zone In Syria
  9. Turkey Renews Call for Syria No-Fly Zone
  10. Obama Says Creating No-Fly Zones in Syria Counterproductive

62. Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: new, King, Saudi, Arabia
  1. Letter From Saudi Arabia
  2. Revealed: Saudi Arabia’s manifesto for change in the face of …
  3. Are Turkey, Saudi Arabia Pressuring Jordan on a Terror Blacklist?
  4. Saudi Arabia: The wake-up call
  5. Saudi Arabia Backs Tax on Empty Land as 40% of Riyadh Sits Empty
  6. Why Saudi Arabia plans to build the world’s tallest skyscraper
  7. #SueMeSaudi: Twitter Users Taunt Saudi Arabia
  8. ‘Secret wife’ of late King Fahd of Saudi Arabia wins 20million in …
  9. WikiLeaks Reveals Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Qatar Secret Anti-Syria Plot
  10. The 12 best gifts world leaders gave the Obamas

63. Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: US, Justice, Department, file, criminal, charges, against, Volkswagen
  1. Volkswagen, DOJ want diesel civil cases heard in Detroit
  2. Prosecutors Lay Out Details in Case Against State Auditor
  3. US appeals court reconsiders decision on ex-bin Laden aide
  4. Volkswagen Diesel Scandal: Will US Justice Department File …
  5. The Challenges for Volkswagen’s Internal Investigation
  6. Justice Dept. Considering Criminal Charges Against Volkswagen
  7. Hanover woman files suit against Volkswagen
  8. VW diesel owners to get $1000 in gift cards and vouchers
  9. Terror in Little Saigon
  10. The Morning Risk Report: Water Permitting Gets Murkier

64. Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Putin, meet, Abe, Japan
  1. Putin’s Japan visit shelved for this year amid inconclusive meeting …
  2. Japan Preparing Possible Abe, Putin Meeting at G20 in Turkey
  3. Abe-Putin meeting being planned on fringes of G-20 summit in Turkey
  4. Putin Confirms Bilateral Talks With Japan’s Abe at Upcoming G20 …
  5. Abe looks to hold talks with Obama, Xi, Putin this month
  6. Japan, France call for international solidarity against terrorism
  7. Obama, Abe to hold talks next week in Manila
  8. Paris climate summit: David Cameron warns ‘earth is in peril’ – as it …
  9. Japan-Russia summit talks leave Putin’s true intentions unclear
  10. Netanyahu to meet world leaders in Paris Monday

66. Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: RCEP, negotiations, completed
  1. RCEP negotiations to continue next year
  2. ASEAN Reinforces Commitment to RCEP
  3. Switch to IFRS won’t come with higher taxes, says MOF
  4. Abe Touts the TPP in Battle to Define the Regional Order
  5. Thai-Chinese relations entering a new era of ‘tangible progress’
  6. Cooperation urged on trade, infrastructure, energy
  7. Another underwhelming Asian summit season
  8. There will be opportunities in East Asia’s top trio
  9. WTO skips India on food security
  10. APEC Summit Reaffirms Commitment to FTAAP Through TPP

70. Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: NATO, invoke, Article, 4, in, Russia
  1. Russian Su-24 Plane Update: Will Turkey Invoke NATO’s Collective …
  2. Collective Self-Defense against ISIS: Politicians in Washington …
  3. Erdogan has a trump card against Putin that would transform the …
  4. Turkey’s Blockade of Russian Naval Vessels’ Access to the …
  5. NATO’s Turn to Attack
  6. How ISIS Suckered the West
  7. New Round of ISIS-Sponsored Terrorism in Paris
  8. Reassessing NATO: Canada shouldn’t let itself be ‘Article Fived’ into …
  9. Lunatics in Washington Want NATO Article 5 Invoked for Total War
  10. Bulgarian PM: Tension between Nato, Russia ‘not good’

71. When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Iran, launch, ballistic, missile?
  1. Iran reveals range of Emad ballistic missile
  2. FEATURED | Geopolitical Correlations between Iran’s Ballistic …
  3. New app teaches Iranians about missiles
  4. Iran’s missile threat: Counter it
  5. To Thwart Russian and Chinese Ambitions, We Must Invest More …
  6. US confirms Iran tested nuclear-capable ballistic missile
  7. Iran test-fires new generation long-range ballistic missiles, state …
  8. Threat of Russian Cruise Missiles Close Down Iraqi Airports
  9. It’s Official: There Will Be No Iranian ICBM in 2015
  10. Iran, Russia in talks over major arms deal

74. Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Palestinian, Authority, Israel, halt, security, cooperation
  1. Fatah leaders warn that PA might break ties with Israel
  2. Israel Outlaws Northern Branch of Islamic Movement
  3. Bibi Soothes GA Crowd; Focus On Youth Continues
  4. How The American Religious Right Is Making The Middle East …
  5. Hamas’ Meshaal calls for unity to support intifada
  6. The Hillary Clinton Doctrine
  7. The Latest: News from the Paris attacks
  8. PLO leaders recommend that Palestinian Authority halt security …
  9. Palestinians halt security cooperation with Israel after minister’s death
  10. ‘Abbas may halt security cooperation with Israel unless Palestine is …

76. Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: North, Korea, nuclear, test
  1. North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed …
  2. No signs of new North Korea nuclear test tunnel: U.S. experts
  3. Bearing Witness To A Nuclear North Korea
  4. US, South Korea express ‘grave concern’ over North Korean threats
  5. China Attempts to Turn North Korea from Liability to Asset
  6. Forget China — N. Korea Markets Missiles Despite Iran Nuclear Deal
  7. North Korea Tests Submarine Missile In Direct Violation Of UN …
  8. ‘No signs of new North Korea nuclear test’
  9. S. Korea, China discuss N. Korea policy after envoy’s Pyongyang visit
  10. US-Japan Missile Defense Cooperation: Increasing Security and …

77. Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: NATO, invoke, Article, 4, 5, ISIS
  1. Using Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to legalize the war against …
  2. Analysis: Will France invoke NATO’s Article 5 to declare war on …
  3. How ISIS Suckered the West
  4. NATO-Russia Tensions Rise After Turkey Downs Jet
  5. Hollande invokes EU treaty, hoping to build coalition against ISIS
  6. New Round of ISIS-Sponsored Terrorism in Paris
  7. NATO response to Paris attacks would not require Canada to act
  8. Marco Rubio Calls for NATO Article 5, Coalition to Fight ISIS
  9. White House: NATO ‘welcome’ in ISIS fight
  10. John Kasich calls for NATO action following Paris attack

78. Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: expanded, Panama, Canal, open, shipping
  1. April 2016 Opening Date for Expanded Panama Canal Remains …
  2. Uncertain Opening Date of Panama Canal Expansion
  3. Delays of 10 days reported at Panama Canal
  4. N.J. ports juggle rising workload with logistical problems
  5. Jamaica selects SOGET to implement the largest Port Community …
  6. North Carolina port seeks to punch with South Atlantic heavyweights
  7. Panama: Repairments for Widening the Panama Canal to End in …
  8. Florida Ports Anticipate More Asia Trade From Expanded Panama …
  9. Panama Canal Expansion Could Boost U.S. Ag Exports
  10. Wider Panama Canal Won’t Affect Hawaii

79. Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Putin, attend, Nuclear, Security, Summit, Washington,
  1. Obama’s leadership to be tested in Paris
  2. Putin accuses US of colluding in downing of Russian plane
  3. Putin lifts barriers to nuclear cooperation with Iran
  4. Putin Visits Iran
  5. Administration will soon be forced to confront big decisions on Syria
  6. The Latest: Police in Rotterdam detain 3 people
  7. Who’s in Control? Obama or the generals?
  8. Moscow needs an exit strategy for its Syrian quagmire
  9. Bungling Belgians come under scrutiny after terror fugitive gives …
  10. Russia’s nuclear capability an existential threat to US: Gen. Milley

80. Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Britain, referendum, EU, membership
  1. EU membership backed by 70% of UK university students, survey finds
  2. GBP Versus ‘Brexit’ Risk: Pound Sterling’s EU Referendum Problem
  3. Cameron ally says hopes fading for EU membership deal this year
  4. EU referendum: Majority of UK public wants ‘Brexit’, poll reveals
  5. EU Referendum: Britain Will Be Less Secure Outside The EU, Warns …
  6. EU membership referendum will be UK-wide poll
  7. Tories plot against Cameron’s EU referendum plan
  8. UK PM Cameron wants EU referendum in June 2016: The Times
  9. Danes to vote in EU referendum amid confusion, trust issues
  10. UK to hold just one vote on EU membership, forum hears

81. Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Republican, Party, nomination, US, presidential, election
  1. Could Donald Trump win the GOP nomination?
  2. Wary of Donald Trump, GOP Leaders Are Caught in a Standoff
  3. The 2016 presidential election is already decided in the Heart of Dixie
  4. Neither Donald Trump Nor Ben Carson Is Going to Be the 2016 GOP …
  5. Steady debate performance banishes gloom for US Republican Jeb …
  6. Voters wonder if Cruz can heal Washington’s bitter divisions
  7. This Is Why Donald Trump Is Scaring the Shit Out of the Republican …
  8. Kirk unleashes attack ad on Duckworth
  9. Could a GOP president scuttle a global climate deal? Yes, but it …
  10. Could it happen again? House picked president in 1824

84. Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Turkey, impose, capital, controls
  1. Turkey calls for military talks with Russia
  2. Putin risks a new Afghanistan, Obama warns
  3. Greeks bearing gifts
  4. Worldwide Conflicts Threaten to Overshadow Paris Climate Summit
  5. For gays under Islamic State rule, isolation and fear of a cruel death
  6. Predatory Islamic State Wrings Money From Those It Rules
  7. US and European powers prepare military escalation in Iraq, Syria
  8. After the Paris Massacre: The Evil Axis of US Allies
  9. The Sultan of Turkey
  10. Why did it take Turkey just 17 seconds to shoot down Russian jet?

86. Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_86_uid_102_branch_yes_closed_true_answer_0.png

avg_prediction_qid_86_uid_102_branch_yes_closed_true_answer_100.png

No news for keywords: China, conduct, naval, exercises, ASEAN, member

87. Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

My forecasting path

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avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_christine-lagarde-will-serve-a-second-term_closed_true_answer_100.png

avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_someone-else-from-europe_closed_true_answer_0.png

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avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_someone-from-outside-europe_closed_true_answer_0.png

avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_someone-from-outside-europe_closed_true_answer_100.png

No news for keywords: managing, director, next, IMF

88. Which team will win the NFLs Super Bowl in 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-american-football-conference_closed_true_answer_0.png

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-american-football-conference_closed_true_answer_100.png

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-national-football-conference_closed_true_answer_0.png

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-national-football-conference_closed_true_answer_100.png

No news for keywords: National, American, win, NFL, Super, Bowl
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