For closed questions, for my forecasts, knowing the final outcome, plot my running Brier and Accuracy scores from start to finish of the question.
I’m trying to come up with a measure of foresight. A low initial Brier line would say that I guessed right in the beginning. Basically how well do I guess up front. I’m also thinking about weighting the Brier score so that later observations less important than initial observations in the quality measure. My initial lines tend to be on top floating above the crowd.
As a matter of practice going forward I’m going to stay closer to the crowd and express my personal view as a spread on the crowd, I’m not going to go 0/1 which was my initial instinct. However there may be some players in the population who are successful with a 0/1 strategy.