AAR “Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?” (UPDATE 3)

Scoring and Good Judgment consensus graph

The orange line is Macri (the winner), and the rainbow line is my estimate that Macri will win.  I was ahead of the crowd for the last 2 weeks but wrong the rest of the time:

macri

This resulted in the following Brier scores for me:

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Nov 23, 2015 01:00AM UTC Who will win the presidential election in Argentina? 100.0% 1.664 1.117 0.547

For purposes of analyzing questions with multiple possible answers, I prefer to consider each answer as a separate (though tightly correlated) question.  Let’s look at each branch now.

Branch: SOMEONE ELSE

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Someone else.png

This branch had no links in support.  There were 10 words of analysis with the following cloud:

cloud_Someone else_comments_10.png

Branch: Sergio Massa

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Sergio Massa.png

Massa got 30 words of commentary with cloud

cloud_Sergio Massa_comments_30.png

Sergio Massa had one link in support:

  1. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RY0KF20151004

Branch: Daniel Scioli

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Daniel Scioli.png

The favorite based on initial polling.  I blindly followed this until 2 weeks prior.  Crowd took a while to catch up, probably due to 98% non-participation after initial forecast.  This leads to the idea that non-participating forecasters should have their forecasts minimized in the aggregation function.  I’ll have to try this some time!

Scioli got 5659 words of analysis with cloud

cloud_Daniel Scioli_comments_5659.png

Daniel Scioli got 50 links in support:

  1. http://abcenlinea.com.ar/para-ceop-scioli-gana-en-primera-vuelta/
  2. http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iim5syxYuKlQ/v3/-1x-1.png
  3. http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=473615031&Country=Argentina&topic=Politics
  4. http://danielmarcelino.com/argentine-general-election-2015/
  5. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/08/27/scioli-macri-the-most-probable-run-off-in-argentina-s-presidential-race
  6. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/12/scioli-leads-presidential-race-in-argentina-but-still-a-puff-short-to-avoid-runoff
  7. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/19/scioli-with-best-chances-of-becoming-argentina-s-next-president-if-the-runoff-is-with-macri
  8. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/29/macri-ahead-of-scioli-with-8.8-still-undecided-shows-first-poll-following-sunday-s-vote
  9. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/25/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0RP1U920150925
  10. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0RS2FG20150928
  11. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34634210
  12. http://www.betbreakingnews.com/betmod-item/14109/
  13. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/argentine-opposition-pact-would-backfire-in-election-poll-says
  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/argentine-oil-governors-back-daniel-scioli-in-presidential-bid
  15. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/argentina-s-scioli-closing-in-on-first-round-victory-poll-shows
  16. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/argentine-front-runner-on-verge-of-first-round-win-polls-show
  17. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/victory-for-argentina-s-macri-not-a-given-goldman-sachs-says
  18. http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/197589/new-poll-puts-scioli-10-points-clear-for-october-elections
  19. http://www.cba24n.com.ar/content/rabolini-compartio-acto-con-alejandra-vigo-en-corrientes
  20. http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21660149-voters-are-about-start-choosing-next-president-scion-and-heir
  21. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21676770-front-runner-promises-continuity-country-needs-change-cleaning-up-after-cristina
  22. http://www.eltribuno.info/con-respeto-y-algunos-cruces-5-candidatos-expusieron-sus-planes-n621755
  23. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43816.pdf
  24. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/27/no-3-in-argentina-first-round-presidential-election-hints-at-backing-opposition/
  25. http://www.infobae.com/2015/09/20/1756695-encuesta-sergio-massa-le-ganaria-el-ballottage-daniel-scioli-pero-mauricio-macri-no
  26. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/argentinian-polls-show-strong-lead-for-daniel-scioli-1.2396657
  27. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1817544-ganadores-y-perdedores-quienes-se-perfilan-para-seguir-en-carrera-a-la-presidencia
  28. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1839396-elecciones-2015-resultados-en-vivo-por-provincia-municipio-y-comuna
  29. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/data-elecciones-2015-t52156
  30. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499
  31. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/11/world/americas/primaries-in-argentina-point-to-a-close-presidential-race.html?_r=0
  32. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/business/dealbook/argentine-front-runner-for-president-is-expected-to-resolve-standoff-with-us-hedge-funds.html?_r=0
  33. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/world/americas/election-will-end-kirchners-presidency-not-her-hold-on-argentina.html?_r=0
  34. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/americas/argentina-presidential-election.html
  35. http://www.perfil.com/politica/Scioli-ganaria-en-primera-vuelta-vence-a-Macri-en-ballottage-pero-no-a-Massa-20151017-0163.html
  36. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RW2GE20151002
  37. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RY0KF20151004
  38. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/11/us-argentina-election-poll-idUSKCN0S50PI20151011
  39. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-argentina-election-count-idUSKCN0SE2VC20151020
  40. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0SJ04520151026
  41. http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/world-politics/Argentina-Presidential-Election-2146105.html
  42. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Polls-Scioli-to-Win-Argentinas-Presidential-Election-Sunday-20151023-0001.html
  43. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/23/argentina-elections-2015-a-guide-to-the-parties-polls-and-electoral-system
  44. http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-argentina-presidential-elections-survey/2979335.html
  45. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/20/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-argentinas-2015-federal-elections/
  46. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-presidential-front-runner-daniel-scioli-warily-signals-new-tack-1445456688
  47. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2015
  48. https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Argentina_de_2015
  49. https://www.rt.com/news/319655-argentine-scioli–exit-polls/
  50. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/20/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-argentinas-2015-federal-elections/

Branch: Mauricio Macri

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Mauricio Macri.png

The dark horse finisher.  I tweaked to this 2 weeks out but not soon enough to rescue my Briar score.  Crowd well lagging, most likely due to 98% non-participation after initial forecast.

Macri got 7006 words of analysis with cloud

cloud_Mauricio Macri_comments_7006

Macri had 64 links in support:

  1. https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/some-numbers-on-the-gj-open-population/
  2. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentine-election-front-runner-criticizes-regions-leftists-35121662
  3. http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/22/argentines-contemplate-election-with-far-reaching-consequences.html
  4. http://buenosairesherald.com/article/201741/massa-embraces-role-of-runoff-kingmaker
  5. http://buenosairesherald.com/article/202952/polls-put-macri-ahead
  6. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/28/third-ranked-massa-will-not-vote-for-continuity-and-scioli-must-prove-he-s-not-on-the-kirchner-leash
  7. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/29/macri-ahead-of-scioli-with-8.8-still-undecided-shows-first-poll-following-sunday-s-vote
  8. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/07/argentina-massa-tells-ft-he-has-been-given-the-task-of-controlling-government
  9. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/cristina-fernandez-cancels-trip-to-g20-summit-and-joins-scioli-s-presidential-campaign
  10. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/cristina-fernandez-cancels-trip-to-g20-summit-and-joins-scioli-s-presidential-campaign).
  11. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/macri-leads-by-eight-points-but-one-in-ten-voters-remains-undecided-says-poll
  12. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/macri-leads-by-eight-points-but-one-in-ten-voters-remains-undecided-says-poll).
  13. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/12/sunday-s-presidential-candidates-debate-decisive-for-argentina-s-runoff-on-november-22
  14. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/14/argentine-analyst-says-8-decide-their-vote-on-election-day
  15. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/16/presidential-debate-not-much-substance-but-a-clear-fading-of-the-kirchnerite-confrontation-spirit
  16. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/17/presidential-debate-with-no-clear-winner-which-favors-macri-unless-there-s-a-black-swan
  17. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/18/presidential-debate-widened-the-gap-for-macri-scioli-unable-to-transmit-his-true-profile
  18. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/19/pope-francis-calls-on-argentines-to-vote-with-conscience-next-sunday
  19. http://en.mercopress.com/tags/argentina-general-elections-2015
  20. http://horsestories.com
  21. http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2015/11/03/opinion-political-earthquake-in-argentina-may-produce-aftershocks-in-venezuela/
  22. http://news.yahoo.com/argentina-opposition-presidential-bid-helped-rising-provincial-star-200949218–business.html
  23. http://news.yahoo.com/opposition-candidate-macri-leads-argentina-presidential-race-poll-151604522–sector.html
  24. http://oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/measurement_comparability.html
  25. http://oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/online_research_methods.html
  26. http://reportuk.info/post/326131).
  27. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/14/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0T310L20151114
  28. http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NXK6XB6JIJUY01-2D2E78K045QIV94CBOI1G6TMR6
  29. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sell-soy-ahead-of-argentine-elections-says-morgan-stanley–9003.html
  30. http://www.as-coa.org/articles/argentina-update-debate-and-polls-runoff-vote
  31. http://www.atilioboron.com.ar/2015/10/argentina-un-balotaje-crucial-para.html
  32. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-26/this-first-time-pollster-was-only-one-to-call-argentine-election
  33. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/as-argentina-s-election-goes-to-runoff-all-eyes-turn-to-loser)
  34. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/moody-s-raises-argentina-outlook-on-changes-in-political-climate
  35. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/victory-for-argentina-s-macri-not-a-given-goldman-sachs-says
  36. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-09/argentine-exchange-rates-are-converging-on-macri-s-lead-in-polls
  37. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/argentina-poised-to-make-history-in-sunday-presidential-election
  38. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/kirchner-foe-in-lead-in-argentina-vote–and-markets-are-excited.html
  39. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/22/argentinas-elections-produce-win-for-macri-exit-polls.html
  40. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/daily-chart-12
  41. http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2015/11/05/what-should-investors-know-about-argentinas-presidential-election/
  42. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec5f24b6-8391-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html?siteedition=intl
  43. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec5f24b6-8391-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html?siteedition=intl).
  44. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1836089-laberinto-politico
  45. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1838567-una-eleccion-rodeada-de-varios-enigmas-hasta-el-final
  46. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/americas/argentina-presidential-election.html
  47. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/world/americas/argentina-considers-shift-as-upstart-rises-in-presidential-race.html?_r=0
  48. http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/virtualissue3.html
  49. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0SK1KR20151026
  50. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/10/argentina-hipotecario-bonds-idUSL1N1351PG20151110#3DRY1LCMgzusILPO.97
  51. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111
  52. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111#H4yh0zVLFqetjcGT.97.
  53. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111#mRYJSFXfhcYTKKmr.97
  54. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/argentina-election-macri-idUSL8N13659F20151113
  55. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentina-Presidential-Debate-Pits-Left-vs-Right-on-Economics-20151115-0022.html
  56. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Argentina-A-Crucial-Ballot-for-Latin-America-20151106-0011.html
  57. http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/09/28/why-public-opinion-polls-are-increasingly-inaccurate
  58. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-kingmaker-sergio-massa-spurns-kirchner-ally-in-presidential-runoff-1446078882
  59. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-presidential-front-runner-forged-his-career-in-world-of-soccer-1448066155
  60. http://www.wsj.com/articles/from-default-to-darling-argentina-bets-pay-off-for-hedge-funds-1447204491
  61. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2015
  62. https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2015/11/16/run-off-presidential-elections-in-argentina-could-have-positive-impact-on-the-region/
  63. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/opposition-claims-it-got-votes-to-force-runoff-in-argentina/2015/10/25/2716152c-7b83-11e5-837b-2c3f2478487e_story.html
  64. https://youtu.be/GiPe1OiKQuk
  65. https://youtu.be/j4XT-l-_3y0

 

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