My prediction paths vs the crowd

Question 4. China IPO Resumption (still open)

This is me, to date, in calendar days from the start of GJOpen, on the Chinese IPO question, versus each forecaster in the crowd individually

prediction_path_question_4_user_102_vs_all_users

Or if you prefer:

mondrian-style-world-map

It is maybe more helpful to see my prediction versus the aggregate prediction.  I don’t know how to reproduce the GJOpen aggregate function, which is their secret sauce and not a simple mean, as it is weighted by individual forecaster’s prior accuracy.  I don’t know how strong that effect really is, so let’s content ourselves with a simple average.

You can’t simply attribute a prediction of 50% to everybody prior to them getting into the question, because that biases the crowd prediction picture prior to that point based on the total number of people eventually coming in.  So we have to be fancier about how we add people in.  We have to keep a count of who is in on each day and only average over live predictions on that day.  Doing that, we get this picture:

prediction_path_question_4_user_102_vs_mean_users

This picture is fairly satisfying, so let’s do it for the other Yes/No questions (I’ll save multipart questions for another day).

Question 3. Iran S-300s from Russia (still open)

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Clearly I’m not buying it.  The crowd kind of is.  I did a couple of times.  There’s a lot of progaganda.  Question still open.

Question 5. Ex-Im Bank Reopening (still open)

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No domain knowledge, still in 0/1 mode.

Question 6. Trilateral Tigers meet (still open)

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Studied this, not a buyer.

Question 7. Jason comes home (still open, alas)

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Much unfounded optimism.

Question 8. NK ICBM test launch (still open)

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Not a buyer based on risk to them of getting MOABed, but occasionally I waver.

Question 9. Venezuela default (still open)

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Not a buyer because China.

 

 

Question 12. OPEC quotas (still open)

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Not a buyer based on global market instability and other reasons like their desire to screw with other suppliers.

Question 13.  City of Venice vs Heather Has Two Mommies (still open)

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This one feels like the Jason Rezaian question…hard to believe it’s for real.

Question 14. Africa polio (still open)

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My epidemiologist friend forecast 25% and walked away like most GJOpen users.  I’ve been fluctuating around that level based on refugee flow.

Question 15. Assad g’bye  (still open)

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Vlad’s painted himself into a corner on this one, so I’m mostly negative.

Question 18. TTP  (still open)

prediction_path_question_18_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

No clue but pessimistic, trying to trail the crowd.  Too many questions to update so my trail is lagging.

Question 19.  Iran host head of state (still open)

prediction_path_question_19_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

They’re really not that social but I’ve been (over-)optimistic.

Question 24. Fed Funds increase (still open)

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They’ve painted themselves into a corner, it’s put out or get out.  Occasionally I doubt, but mostly I think they have to do it.

Question 27. Iran Parliament approves nuke deal (closed)

prediction_path_question_27_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

It’s their deal, why wouldn’t they?

Question 28.  IAEA inspects Parchin (closed)

prediction_path_question_28_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

One of my few slam-dunks.

Question 30. Grexit (still open)

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Seriously?  If they did that, they’d have to stop breaking plates, drinking turpentine and riding scooters, and go to work for a living.

Question 33. US Oil Export Ban Repeal

prediction_path_question_33_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

No because we’re in an undeclared world war?  Occasionally I think yes but then reason gets the better of me.  There’s a reason they passed that ban.

Question 34. South China Sea ADIZ

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The island, a lot of effort for nothing.

Question 35. Jurassic World box office (still open)

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No based on velocity.

Question 36. Adnan Syed (still open)

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No based on judicial entropy.

Question 37.  Joe Biden (closed)

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My game-theoretic logic on this one failed to hold up. I still think Bernie’s gonna win and this will put DNC and GOP into a head-to-head World Series 12-inning kind of game that wouldn’t be otherwise, but what can you do.  On the other hand, Uncle Joe was a big fibber, so maybe it’s better we at least get a shot at Uncle Bernie.

Question 40. Irish meltdown (still open)

prediction_path_question_40_user_102_vs_mean_users.pngWhat is this, The Troubles?

Question 42. Russia bombs Syria (closed)

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Why was this even a question?  One of my few wins.

Question 44.  Roger Goodell keeps his job (still open)

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Why is this even a question?

Question 47.  iPhone 6Z sales (still open)

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If there is a single thing Apple is good at, it’s selling overpriced limited-shelflife tchochkes for avid materialists.  You can make me doubt, but not for long.

Question 49. US Government Shutdown (still open)

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The country’s bum still hurts from the last time Joe McCarthy’s godson Ted Cruz did this to us, and it’s a major reason why Hillary has no competition on the GOP side.

Question 50. BOJ buys junk (still open)

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I’m kind of expecting it but obviously rather mixed.

Question 51.  Iran IAEA access problems (still open)

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Not until SWIFT opens up long enough for them to get their greenbacks somewhere safe.

Question 52.  Montenegro into NATO (still open)

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There was enough of a tussle over South Stream last year, I don’t think EU or US appetites are that up to boat-rocking along the Iron Curtain this year.

Question 55. Malaysia capital controls  (still open)

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I made a single No guess on this one, kind of uninformed though.

Question 56. Winds of Winter book release

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Shiver me timbers and rip me bodices.  It takes time to write that stuff.

Question 61. Syria no-fly zone (still open)

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Of who against who?  Turkey tried it and snap crackle pop.  ISIS doesn’t fly.

Question 63. VW criminal charges (still open)

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They should file some kind of charges against the guy that designed the original VW Beetle, and then more charges against the guy that discontinued the Beetle in favor of the Phaeton and similar.  They lost their way, folks!  Now VW is Madrigal Electromotive!

Question 64.  Putin meet with Abe (still open)

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No, based on historical research, but I’ve wavered.  Now I’m staying just under the crowd to express my view, because burned on too many extreme views up to now.

Question 66. RCEP negotiations (still open)

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This one no clue but crowd is pessimistic so seems safe to say No.

Question 70. NATO Article 4 (still open)

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No because everybody’s in a state of emergency already.

Question 74.  PA break with Israel (still open)

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Intuitively likely but people say No so that’s where I am.

Question 76.  NK nuke test (still open)

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No because if I were running things I’d hammer them at that point, and I’m a calm pacifist.

Question 78.  Panama Canal widening (still open)

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Everybody loves a nice canal question.

Question 79.  Putin attending Nuke summit (still open)

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While he’s still banning Brie?  I’m 10 points under the spread on this one.

Question 80. UK/EU breakup (still open)

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Before or after Scotland secedes?

Question 82.  Black Friday retail up (still open)

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Flippety-floppety but mostly bullish.

Question 84. Turkey capital controls (still open)

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When they are picking fights with Putin, which is risky behavior, I don’t think they are in the headspace to fine-tune banking regulations.

Question 86. China joint naval exercises (still open)

prediction_path_question_86_user_102_vs_mean_users.png

I’m kind of bullish on this based on the existence of a Foreign Policy-type article that says it makes sense, but I haven’t researched it so I’m 10 points over the spread on this one.

 

 

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