How to improve accuracy score on GJOpen

Given that:

  1. The vast majority of participants make 1 or 2 predictions at the start of a question
  2. Multi-part questions can have open bins which are effectively closed based on the criteria of the question, but they are still forecast

I am going to test the following accuracy-improvement strategy:

  1. Stay at crowd level until material information becomes available (most questions are about things that don’t become clear until they become clear)
  2. If a bin is determined but not closed, predict the crowd level conditional on that bin being closed
  3. Once material information becomes available, incorporate it in the prediction, which will be more accurate than the crowd, because 98% of the crowd has gone home
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