Inability to close determined bins in GJOpen leads to bad forecasts


Last year in GJP, when a bin of a multi-part question was determined, they closed the bin.

This year, despite multiple software upgrades on relatively trivial feaures, this fundamental feature is gone.  As a result, in the WTI question, people are still loudly and proudly predicting the >$40 bin, even after it has effectively closed.  This means that the probabilities on the other bins, conditional on >$40 bin being 0%, are now highly incorrect, with the >$40 bin still forecast at 35%.

If I were a client of this process, along with the dismal forecast quality on the election questions, I’d be saying “Thank you for dropping by”.


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