My carefully considered models for all the open questions on GJOpen

So many, can’t keep track, wish they would group them by cluster.  Models in red.

Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 07:45AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 100.00% 25.00% +75.00% +0.00%

China turned this feature back on, not clear why everybody is at 25%.

Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Glenn 100.00% 25.00% +75.00%
Rick 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%
Carl 0.00% 1.00% -1.00%
Carol 0.00% 11.00% -11.00%
Daryl 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%
All of the above will survive season 6 0.00% 15.00% -15.00%

I don’t watch the show, but most people like Glenn for the dead guy.

What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?

Question Ends:
Dec 29, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 02:13PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Less than $34.00 per barrel 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% +0.00%
Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive 98.00% 40.00% +58.00% +0.00%
More than $40.00 per barrel 2.00% 37.50% -35.50% +0.00%

We’re right at the barrier today.

Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2015 02:54PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 90.00% 34.00% +56.00% +1.00%

I’m up because NK cleared a 2-week window for it, but I’ll go back down if they chicken out.

As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2015 01:57PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Less than 560,000 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% +0.00%
More than 710,000 but less than 1 million 20.00% 35.00% -15.00% +0.00%
1 million or more 80.00% 25.00% +55.00% +0.00%

Most people are saying a million is a done deal.

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary?

Question Ends:
Feb 9, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2015 11:03PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 10.00% 60.00% -50.00% +0.00%

Too many skeletons in her closet.  Vote for Bernie, a chicken in every pot!

Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2015 02:51PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes, only Article 4 10.00% 10.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Yes, only Article 5 5.00% 5.00% +0.00% -9.00%
Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% +0.50%
No 85.00% 42.00% +43.00% +14.50%

They’re all on red alert already, they don’t need to ring extra bells.

Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?

Question Ends:
Nov 22, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2015 06:39PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Daniel Scioli 20.00% 54.00% -34.00% -1.00%
Mauricio Macri 80.00% 40.00% +40.00% +5.00%
Sergio Massa 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Someone else 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Most people like Macri.

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

Question Ends:
Sep 30, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2015 07:26AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 75.00% 35.00% +40.00% +0.00%

This question’s been running 2 years now, it has to pop sometime.  What do you think they built that Dr. No island for?

How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

Question Ends:
Aug 6, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 4, 2015 09:39AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
0 30.00% 47.00% -17.00% +0.00%
Between 1 and 5, inclusive 70.00% 30.00% +40.00% +0.00%
More than five, but less than all 0.00% 7.00% -7.00% -1.00%
All 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

I got surprised at the predecessor question when they let in Bodtlokhistan so I’m long 1-5.

Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2015 12:57PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 35.00% 70.00% -35.00% +0.00%

They really kind of want to but kind of not.

When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 3, 2015 04:10PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Before 1 March 2016 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% +2.00%
Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive 0.00% 7.00% -7.00% +2.00%
Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive 0.00% 10.00% -10.00% +5.00%
Not before 1 July 2016 100.00% 66.00% +34.00% +1.00%

Why give Israel an excuse to go apeshit when they are gasping for cash with a predominantly young population that’s probably not 100% with the program.

Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2015 10:14AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 25.00% 56.00% -31.00% +0.00%

A family friend who is a gold-plated epidemiologist says 25%, other forecasters with some domain knowledge seem to agree.

What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2015 12:22PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Less than 6.30 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% +0.00%
Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive 10.00% 20.00% -10.00% -5.00%
More than 6.35 but less than 6.40 40.00% 35.00% +5.00% -0.50%
6.40 or more 50.00% 20.00% +30.00% +5.00%

Pushing 6.40 barrier now despite China’s best efforts to manage the currency into SDR membership.

Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

Question Ends:
Mar 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 09:06PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 30.00% 60.00% -30.00% +0.00%

It’s Un-American to export oil plus shale is not profitable thus cutting production within the borders.

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2017 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 01:23PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 20.00% 50.00% -30.00% -17.00%

The Mouse That Roared probably doesn’t want to get squashed.

Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

Question Ends:
Mar 30, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2015 12:38PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 29.00% -29.00%

Attorney Generals too chicken-shit plus VW can always blame it on the programmers and say I Know Nothing!

Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain’s upcoming elections?

Question Ends:
Dec 21, 2015 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2015 03:18PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Podemos 30.00% 15.00% +15.00%
Ciudadanos 70.00% 47.00% +23.00%
Both 0.00% 1.00% -1.00%
Neither 0.00% 20.00% -20.00%

I have no idea just been tracking the crowd prediction, probably time for an update.

Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

Question Ends:
Jul 21, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 07:40AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Jeb Bush 7.00% 10.00% -3.00% +4.00%
Ben Carson 3.00% 2.00% +1.00% -1.50%
Ted Cruz 14.00% 10.00% +4.00% +0.00%
Carly Fiorina 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% -0.50%
Marco Rubio 62.00% 40.00% +22.00% -2.00%
Donald Trump 14.00% 13.00% +1.00% +3.00%
None of the above 0.00% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Who cares?

Will the IAEA verify that Iran’s uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

Question Ends:
Jun 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2015 06:31PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 95.00% 75.00% +20.00% +0.00%

No clue, tracking the crowd, probably time for an update.

Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 5, 2015 01:31PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 100.00% 85.00% +15.00% +5.00%

People think it will happen.   I’m not sure it should, I’m kind of with the libertarians on this one, but people say it pays for itself, so what do I know.

Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2015 06:33PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 75.00% 60.00% +15.00% +0.00%

Based on common sense I’d say Yes but I should really set this to 60% or below, because common sense doesn’t really apply in Teheran.  A better model for Teheran is the buyer’s agent during the due diligence period when you’re trying to sell your house, after they’ve signed the contract, “discovering” that the house is not really worth the price agreed to pay, and demanding significant concessions.

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2017 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2015 12:19PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 10.00% 25.00% -15.00% +0.00%

Putin’s a buy-and-hold kind of guy on his investments, and Assad is one of his assets.  That’s not the same as personal loyalty, more like an unwillingness to realize losses.

Will Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

Question Ends:
Mar 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2015 12:37PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 15.00% -15.00%

When’s the last time any South American dictator resigned peacefully?

Will restrictions on Iran’s access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?

Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2015 06:54PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 100.00% 85.00% +15.00%

Since this is the only reason Iran is doing this deal, I’d expect it to happen sooner rather than later.

Will Donald Trump win Iowa’s Republican caucus?

Question Ends:
Feb 1, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2015 11:41AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 15.00% -15.00% +0.00%

You can see he’s getting kind of tired of this game, plus the RNC is in overtime trying to figure out how to slaughter him.

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 6, 2015 11:15PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 15.00% -15.00%

They won’t start getting really testy until after SWIFT has been turned on for a few months, long enough for them to transfer all their assets to friendlier repositories.

Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2015 10:17AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 15.00% 29.50% -14.50% -0.50%

These two countries don’t really have an amicable history and they are as likely to get down with each other as Khamenei is to invite Obama for coffee.

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Question Ends:
Feb 29, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 6, 2015 11:23PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 14.00% -14.00%

Apparently not, though I’m just throwing darts here.  Something to do with Chinese protecting their investments.

Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

Question Ends:
Jan 28, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 04:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 99.00% 85.00% +14.00% +0.00%

Apparently yes, according to our one true genius forecaster who is looking up serial numbers on Ebay and other clever lookups not pre-programmed into Google.

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 5, 2015 05:30PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 13.00% -13.00%

Apparently not, but I haven’t really researched it.

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

Question Ends:
Jun 8, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 09:09PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Less than 125,000 0.00% 8.00% -8.00% +1.00%
Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive 80.00% 68.00% +12.00% +0.00%
More than 250,000 20.00% 15.00% +5.00% +0.00%

Still a novelty item with a certain steady user base but in spite of a recent Chinese scam, not quite taking off.  Crushing of Silk Road also crushed natural demand for this currency.

Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 01:01PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 10.00% -10.00% +0.00%

Iran, for reasons I can’t fathom, wants everybody to think it’s happening.  Russia is dragging its feet, for reasons I can’t fathom.

Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2015 10:29PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 10.00% -10.00%

Sense is don’t rock the boat, which is already pretty low on the water.

Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2015 06:13PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 10.00% -10.00%

Sense is “nah”.

Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2015 01:20PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 10.00% -10.00%

Sense is don’t rock the boat, it’s a Russian protectorate.

Will the National Retail Federation report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion?

Question Ends:
Nov 26, 2015 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2015 02:52PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 55.00% 45.00% +10.00% -11.00%

Guarded optimism interspersed with market-depressing terrorist attacks.

Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?

Question Ends:
May 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 09:10PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 15.00% 24.00% -9.00% -1.00%

Writers gotta write.

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Question Ends:
May 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 09:50AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 10.00% 18.50% -8.50% +3.50%

Haha No.

How many seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January’s elections?

Question Ends:
Jan 17, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 3, 2015 09:05PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Majority 25.00% 30.00% -5.00% +6.00%
Plurality 70.00% 62.50% +7.50% -2.50%
Not a plurality 5.00% 5.00% +0.00% +0.00%

I certainly don’t have a clue, following the crowd, need to update.

Will Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%

Did Hirihoto meet with Roosevelt just after Pearl Harbor?

Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2015 04:52PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 55.00% 50.00% +5.00% +0.00%

They really kind of want to, economy and world not complying.

Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%

Haha No, who else will they bum money off of?

Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%

No, old release.

Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2015 10:43AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%

No.

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?

Question Ends:
Sep 30, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:43PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 100.00% 95.00% +5.00%

Yes.

Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2015 12:06AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 5.00% -5.00%

No.

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

Question Ends:
Jun 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2015 05:00PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
No 100.00% 95.00% +5.00%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0.00% 1.00% -1.00%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%
Yes, Someone else 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%

Betting on the exact moment of death of old people is a losing game except in mystery movies where a lot of insurance has been taken out by the spouse or interested third party.

Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2015 12:49AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 10.00% 15.00% -5.00% +4.00%

Apparently people think this is unlikely despite all the “lawn mowing” and general chaos and bitterness over there.

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

Question Ends:
May 15, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 07:43AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 20.00% 25.00% -5.00% +0.00%

Construction projects always overrun.

Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2015 05:15PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 3.00% -3.00%

Haha No.

Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela’s National Assembly after the next legislative elections?

Question Ends:
Dec 6, 2015 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 6, 2015 07:30AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 60.00% 63.00% -3.00% +3.00%

No clue, following crowd.

Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2015 11:42PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 2.00% -2.00%

Haha No.  You couldn’t pick 3 sets of people with more reasons to dislike each other.

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2017 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2015 02:55PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 20.00% 18.00% +2.00% -1.50%

No it’s 3 Amigos time now.

Will Montenegro’s Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2015 02:39PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 2.00% -2.00% -2.00%

Dictators gotta dictate.  Consider the standard vehicle for such characters.

Will “implementation day” for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran’s legislative elections?

Question Ends:
Feb 26, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2015 06:31PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 25.00% 26.50% -1.50% +0.00%

I dunno, will Jason Rezaian suddenly hop off an Air France flight in CDG?

Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?

Question Ends:
Nov 25, 2015 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2015 12:21PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 1.00% -1.00%

Thank God they haven’t closed this question yet, giving us all a chance to repair our Brier scores.

Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 5, 2015 03:36PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 19.00% 19.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Italian lesbophobes gotta hate.

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 1, 2015 09:45AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 25.00% 25.00% +0.00% +0.00%

TT what?  I dunno.  Probably not.

Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

Question Ends:
Jun 30, 2016 11:59PM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 6, 2015 03:02PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 55.00% 55.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Coin toss until Jason comes home.

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2015 04:57PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%

R what?  Apparently not.

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China’s and another country’s national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2017 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 5, 2015 01:03PM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 15.00% 15.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Other than bumping planes up against each other, China has pretty much avoided lethal conflict while still expanding reach and scope.

Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

Question Ends:
Mar 31, 2016 02:59AM
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2015 07:43AM
Answer Your Forecast Current Median Difference from
Median
Change Since
Last Forecast
Yes 15.00% 15.00% +0.00% +0.00%

He said No pretty loudly so might look a little silly showing up, and he hates to look silly, unless it involves a dog or a horse.

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2 thoughts on “My carefully considered models for all the open questions on GJOpen

  1. You’re trying to do them all? Drove me a little crazy doing that last year, but I’m not sure I’m any good at picking the ones I can do well.

    I wish there were clusters too.

    Like

  2. Well the site is down for maintenance, maybe it will come up with clusters. Or more security. Right now it’s kind of easy to page through, not sure if that is by design or by laziness.

    It’s not driving me crazy if I make one forecast per question and then forget about it. I’m not trying to win, because there’s no prize.

    Like

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