To do: Categorize questions and for open questions plot aggregate weighted by accuracy score

Assign categories to the 80 or so questions.

For the 10 or so closed questions, measure Brier and accuracy scores for each forecaster involved in that question.

For this exercise ignore correlation between categories because hard to define with very few datapoints.  I.e. how do you measure impact of knowledge in one domain on quality of forecasts in a different domain.

For each open question, of the forecasters betting the question who have previously been ranked in that category and have negative accuracy scores (beat the crowd), plot the crowd bet, weighted by accuracy score.  (Not including accuracy influence of correlated accuracy.)

The theoretical range of negative accuracy is [-2,0] where -2 is best.  Suppose accuracy of forecaster i is a(i).  Then let weight w(i)=0.5-0.25*a(i).   Let forecast be f(i).  Sum f(i)*w(i) and divide by sum of w(i) to get the crowd bet.  Please note: I am pulling this out of my drainpipe.  This will be the first of possibly many experiments (depending on my current Coursera load) on effective crowd aggregation.

I will be using these smart-crowd aggregate scores to influence my own play in this game.  To be fair, I will also publish a few examples here as I go along.

 

 

Retrospective Brier and Accuracy scores

For closed questions, for my forecasts, knowing the final outcome, plot my running Brier and Accuracy scores from start to finish of the question.

I’m trying to come up with a measure of foresight.  A low initial Brier line would say that I guessed right in the beginning.  Basically how well do I guess up front.  I’m also thinking about weighting the Brier score so that later observations  less important than initial observations in the quality measure. My initial lines tend to be on top floating above the crowd.

As a matter of practice going forward I’m going to stay closer to the crowd and express my personal view as a spread on the crowd, I’m not going to go 0/1 which was my initial instinct.  However there may be some players in the population who are successful with a 0/1 strategy.

So:

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My open forecasts as of 11/28/15 at 1:33PM EST

1. What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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avg_prediction_qid_1_uid_102_branch_more-than-6-35-but-less-than-6-40.png

Current news for keywords: USDCNY, renminbi, weakening
  1. Fears of RMB devaluation spur selling in Asia
  2. CORRECTED-FOREX-ECB effect hammers franc, yuan hits seven
  3. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.3750, 9th straight yuan weakening fix
  4. What are the chances of an actual currency crisis in China?
  5. Bank of America to halt dollar supplies to Angola: sources
  6. Rand weaker in thin trade
  7. SA’s business sentiment sinks
  8. PetroChina to Divest 50% Stake in Pipeline Assets for $2.4B
  9. BAML: Get ready for the biggest Chinese devaluation in more than
  10. There is some really strange price action in Chinese markets at the

3. Will Russia deliver an S-300 or S-400 missile system to Iran before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_3_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Russia, deliver, S-300, S-400
  1. Russia, China Discuss S-400 Weapons Sale
  2. Turkey suspends flights over Syria, Russia launches electronic
  3. Russian deployment of S-400 in Syria unlikely, expert says
  4. 4 Ways Russia’s Military Is More Advanced Than You Might Think
  5. Putin says Turkey’s leaders back ‘Islamisation’ of Turkish society
  6. ISRAELI & RUSSIAN PILOTS FLY CLEAR OF EACH OTHER OVER
  7. Sophisticated Russian S-400 Air Defense Systems Reportedly
  8. Turkish attack unexpected; Russia considered Turkey to be a
  9. Russia finalizes air defense missile contract with Iran
  10. America’s Worst Nightmare in Syria: Has Russia Deployed the

4. Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_4_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Shanghai, Shenzhen, IPO
  1. Shares tumble as crackdown widens
  2. China Explosives Maker Prices IPO as Share Sales Resume
  3. Hong Kong, China stocks end down slightly on IPO resumption
  4. IPOs set to resume as market regains calm
  5. China stocks end lower as IPO resumption looms, Hong Kong
  6. Asian traders retreat over weak China news
  7. Chinese shares drop as IPOs resume
  8. China’s Dot-Com Dreams Are Detached from Reality
  9. Credit Suisse Wins Approval for Broking in China Economic Zone
  10. Asian stocks finish in the green; China stocks rebound

5. Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Export-Import Bank, United States, re-authorized
  1. Congress, time to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank
  2. Export/Import Bank vital to local businesses
  3. Heitkamp: Export-Import Bank crucial for North Dakota businesses
  4. Highway bill passes House, and Export-Import Bank hitches a ride
  5. Fred Morgan: Export-Import Bank nears reauthorization
  6. House Votes to Revive Export-Import Bank
  7. Cardinal Resources Update on the Reauthorization of the U.S.
  8. Cuellar predicts Ex-Im Bank reauthorization in two weeks
  9. Greenville chamber raps votes against Export-Import Bank
  10. Reauthorizing The Ex-Im Bank Is Bad News For The Climate

6. Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: trilateral, Xi, Jinping,, Abe,, Park
  1. China, South Korea, and Japan: What to expect from the trilateral
  2. Abe affirms Japan-U.S. ties at ASEAN summit
  3. Where to now for ROK–China–Japan trilateral relations?
  4. China’s Xi Jinping Talks Peace, Not War, Heading Off Conflicts In
  5. FACT SHEET: Advancing the Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific
  6. The Chinese Can Cut Trade Deals, Too
  7. ParkAbe reconciliation comes on heels of TPP, China-Japan thaw
  8. AbePark first summit eyed for late October
  9. Reef knots
  10. Abe, Park briefly discuss upcoming trilateral summit on U.N. sidelines

7. Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Iran, release, Rezaian
  1. Iran sentences journalist Jason Rezaian to prison
  2. ABC and NBC Ignore Iran Sentencing Washington Post Reporter
  3. Iran sends a message with Jason Rezaian’s conviction
  4. Obama weak Iran holding Jason Rezaian
  5. UN Investigators Urge Iran to Free Washington Post’s Jason
  6. Where is the State Department in the Jason Rezaian detention?
  7. Iran Says It Sentenced Washington Post Reporter to Prison
  8. Iran Sentences Washington Post Journalist Jason Rezaian to Prison
  9. National anthems: beating the drums of war?
  10. Iranian hard-liners said to intensify crackdown ahead of key votes

8. Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: North Korea, launch, land, ICBM
  1. Turkey shoots down Russian Su-24: What NATO can learn
  2. Get ready, China: This is why Australia needs nuclear weapons
  3. America’s Next Stealth Bomber: A Nuclear-Armed Bomber?
  4. Time To Come In From The Cold (War): Nuclear Force Structure For
  5. Saturday night’s mystery light not a UFO
  6. Russia’s Syria Operation Reveals Significant Improvement in Military
  7. JAMES LYONS, RICHARD FISHER: A new armed peace in the
  8. Revealed: China Tests Secret Missile Capable of Hitting US Satellites
  9. Don’t forget the bomb
  10. North Korea unveils new version of KN-08 ICBM

9. Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Venezuela, Petroleos de Venezuela, default
  1. Petróleos de Venezuela Weighs Bond-Refinancing Plan
  2. A Diagnosis of Venezuela’s Suffering Oil Industry
  3. These 30-Cent Bonds Are Barclays’s Top Pick in Venezuela Default
  4. Venezuela Avoiding Default Again Shows Doomsayers May Be Wrong
  5. Could the oil slump push this country to default?
  6. Venezuela Default Risk: Overstated In Election Year?
  7. Petrobras Is Most Indebted Oil Company — Energy Journal
  8. Handicapping A Venezuelan Default: Barclays
  9. Venezuela Debt Default? Amid Oil Slump, Fears Rise Again After
  10. The Contrarian Venezuela Bond Trade That’s Delivering 37% Return

 

12. Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_12_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: OPEC
  1. OPEC Likely To Continue Price War
  2. OPEC officials question upbeat outlook ahead of policy meeting
  3. Zangeneh: OPEC unlikely to revive quotas
  4. One Year Later and OPEC Still Hasn’t Killed Shale
  5. Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis
  6. Indonesia’s Choice between OPEC and Russia
  7. OPEC to stay the course despite fears of $20 oil
  8. OPEC Issues Another Warning of a Future Oil-Price Spike
  9. Opec firm on high production, to stay on course despite fears of $20 oil
  10. Scant signs of Russia-OPEC output cut deal ahead of Vienna meeting

13. Will the city of Venice lift its ban on “Jean A Deux Mamans” or “Piccolo Uovo” before 1 September 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Venice, ban, Jean, Deux, Mamans, Piccolo, Uovo
  1. Pope Francis ‘praises gay children’s book’ banned in Venice
  2. Book Ban in Venice Ignites a Gay Rights Battle
  3. Italian authors ask Venice to ban their books after gay children’s
  4. Elton John Hits Out over Venice Same-Sex Schoolbooks Ban
  5. Elton speaks out against book ban
  6. An Italian City Bans Children’s Books That Preach Acceptance
  7. Banned Books Week Roundup 2015

14. Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Africa, wild, poliovirus
  1. Statement on the Seventh IHR Emergency Committee meeting
  2. Turnbull commits to polio eradication
  3. Rotary International director visits Media
  4. Opinion: Ending polio can be Trudeau’s legacy
  5. Injectable Anti-Polio Drug to Be Rolled Out Next Month
  6. OIC Conference of Health Ministers
  7. Mozambique: New Vaccine Against Polio Introduced
  8. How to make a virus disappear
  9. A polio milestone: One strain left in the crosshairs
  10. Mozambique unveils new anti-polio vaccine

15. Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Bashar, Assad
  1. France: Assad’s troops could help fight ISIS
  2. Bashar Assad Likely To Outlast Barack Obama In Office
  3. Bashar al-Assad and the ‘Children of Monsters’
  4. Bashar Assad’s presidency looks likely to outlast Barack Obama’s
  5. Allowing Bashar Assad to continue leading Syria is ‘unimaginable
  6. Iran and Russia reiterate support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad
  7. Syrian President Bashar Assad Credits Russia For Forcing Terrorists
  8. On CNN, Why Did Jeb Claim That Bashar Assad Would ‘Execute
  9. Paris attacks: Who benefits from the terrorism? Bashar al-Assad
  10. 5 Things to Know About Syrian President Bashar alAssad

18. Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: TTIP
  1. TTIP talks: EU alleged to have given ExxonMobil access to
  2. Exposed: ‘Full Range of Collusion’ Between Big Oil and TTIP Trade
  3. TTIP’s Regulatory Cooperation And The Politics Of ‘Learning’
  4. Minister asks for progress over TTIP negotiations
  5. TTIP could benefit renewables – NGO
  6. No definite deadline in sight for a TTIP deal
  7. German frustration builds over TTIP secrecy from US
  8. TTIP trade talks: Germany urges US to let MPs see texts
  9. People’s NHS campaigners take to St Albans’ streets for petition
  10. Ambassador: Latvian businessmen to benefit from TTIP

19. Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Iran, host, head, G7
  1. Gulf states, G7 pledge $1.8 bln in refugee aid
  2. 3 Things to Watch at the G7 Summit
  3. Fox, CNN Hype Obama’s ‘Awkward Moment’ with Iraqi PM at G7
  4. Forget the G7 summit – Bilderberg is where the big guns go
  5. Over sea bream in New York, the UN’s secretary-general talks about
  6. G7 finance chiefs ponder flagging growth amid Greek crisis fears
  7. In Germany, a tale of two summits
  8. Schengen: Europe’s open borders in question
  9. Why Won’t the G20 Address the Refugee Crisis?
  10. Slavery reparations call overshadows Cameron’s visit to Jamaica

24. Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: fed, rate, funds, increase
  1. Economists Overwhelmingly Expect Fed to Raise Interest Rates in
  2. Mortgage borrowers, don’t fear a Fed rate hike
  3. Traders Now See 70% Chance of Fed Rate Increase in December
  4. Gold falls to five-year low as likelihood of Fed rateincrease grows
  5. Most Fed Regional Banks Wanted Discount-Rate Hike in October
  6. Gold Fund Sales Skyrocket on Fed Rate Talk
  7. Bond Yields Buoyed Around Globe as Fed RateBoost Odds Beat 50%
  8. Convinced Fed will raise rates in December, investors parse
  9. Fed RateIncrease Odds at 74% in Market as Pimco Sees Liftoff
  10. Mortgage: Be aware of some things before Fed hikes interest rates

25. Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: first, die, Season, 6, Walking, Dead
  1. Walking DeadSeason 6 Predictions: Who Will Die On Mid-Season
  2. ‘The Walking DeadSeason 6, Episode 7: Glenn’s Fate Is Revealed
  3. The Walking Dead season 6 episode 5 review: Maggie drops huge
  4. ‘The Walking DeadSeason 6 Spoilers: Three Characters Negan
  5. The Walking Dead Season 6 News: Episode 8 “Start to Finish
  6. The Second Half Of The Walking Dead Season 6 Will be Super
  7. ‘The Walking DeadSeason 6: Daryl, Sasha, Abraham Captured By
  8. Walking DeadSeason 6 Theories: What Does Glenn’s Fate Mean
  9. ‘The Walking Dead‘ Spoilers: Daryl Dixon Dead In TWD Season 6
  10. ‘The Walking DeadSeason 6: Negan’s first victim will be…

30. Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Grexit, 2017
  1. The Fear of the Other Europe
  2. Frexit talk possible after attacks: Morgan Stanley
  3. CrunchedCredit.com’s 6th Annual Golden Turkey Awards
  4. Britain will be in EU forever: Brussels boss Juncker scoffs he will
  5. Juncker says euro at risk if Schengen passport-free travel zone
  6. Lords back vote for 16 and 17-year olds in UK referendum
  7. Brexit: Irrelevant threat or close reality?
  8. A More Ambitious Agenda Needed to Combat Greek Debt
  9. More misery ahead for Greeks as economy set to shrink again
  10. Greece’s 50 First Days Under the New Government Through

31. What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?

My forecasting path

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avg_prediction_qid_31_uid_102_branch_less-than-34-00-per-barrel.png

avg_prediction_qid_31_uid_102_branch_more-than-40-00-per-barrel.png

Current news for keywords: lowest, closing, spot, West, Texas, Intermediate, crude, oil,, US, Energy, Information, Agency,
  1. Geopolitical tensions drive buoyancy for Oil and gold
  2. Natural Gas Inventory Rises Slowly as the US Gears Up for Winter
  3. Capstone Confirms It’s Working With Banks to Explore Options
  4. Metals rally, BHP slumps in London
  5. State of emergency declared in Crimea after pylons carrying
  6. Record Oil at Sea: Crude Oil Prices Hit a 10-Week Low
  7. The hottest energy stocks of this week: Targa Resources Corp
  8. Three Oil Companies Catching Fire: Energy Transfer Equity LP
  9. Energy stocks flying under the radar right now: Kinder Morgan Inc
  10. Oil caps third weekly loss as USA stockpiles sustain glut

33. Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Congress, pass, legislation, lifting, oil, export, ban
  1. Hoeven: Lifting crude oil export ban a smart move
  2. Hoeven plans to add lifting of oil export ban to highway bill
  3. Gardner: Lifting Ban on Oil Exports This Year Would Ease Tensions
  4. John Hoeven: Time to lift the crude oil export ban
  5. Hoeven: Highway bill can help lift crude oil export ban
  6. Heitkamp votes frustrate some Dems, but party still behind her
  7. ATR Supports Amendments Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban
  8. Oil export backers plan to use highway bill as vehicle
  9. Sen. Wants Oil Export Ban Lifted In 6-Year Highway Bill
  10. End of the road for oil exports on highway bill

34. Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: China, South, Sea, ADIZ
  1. Quiet East China Sea ADIZ highlights Beijing’s struggle to control
  2. Did China Try Restricting US Bombers in the South China Sea?
  3. East China Sea Dispute Continues to Plague Japan-Sino Diplomacy
  4. Chinese J-11 Fighters Exercise in the South China Sea After US
  5. Experts Worry China May Soon Establish South China Sea ADIZ
  6. South China Sea Witnesses More Assertive Strategic Posture Of
  7. South China Sea tensions unlikely to lead to war
  8. US B-52 Bombers Flew Near China’s Fake Islands
  9. China Should Not Declare New South China Sea ADIZ: Top
  10. Japan on guard after ‘peculiar’ Chinese naval ship sails near islets

35. Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Jurassic, World, 2015, Titanic, highest-grossing
  1. Why 2015 has been a blockbuster year for cinema
  2. Colin Trevorrow Won’t Screw Up the Next ‘Star Wars’ Movie, Promise
  3. $200M expected for ‘Star Wars’ opening
  4. The Force Awakens Will Be Rated PG-13
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens breaks box-office records with $50
  6. Dinos Continue To Whip ‘Avengers’: ‘Jurassic World‘ Third-Highest
  7. ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’: What a new TV spot reveals
  8. How ‘Twilight’ Killed the Vampire Movie
  9. Huge “Star Wars” Projections, “Baywatch” Reboot Eyes Female
  10. First FYC Campaign for Uni Hit, Straight Outta Compton

36. Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the “Serial” podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Adnan, Syed,, Serial, podcast,, overturned
  1. NPR PodcastSerial’s Adnan Syed Will Be The Subject Of A New Book
  2. Serial’s Adnan Syed granted motion to show new evidence at
  3. Adnan Syed’s defense attorney says he has new evidence to
  4. Rabia Chaudry, who brought case to ‘Serial‘ creator, to talk at
  5. Court reopens appeal of Adnan Syed, subject of “Serialpodcast
  6. There’s A Chance Adnan Syed From ‘Serial‘ Might Overturn His
  7. Filing in ‘Serial‘ appeal postponed
  8. Syed’s attorney says cellphone expert’s affidavit bolsters case for
  9. Serial catch-up: what happened next in the case of Adnan Syed?
  10. Guy at the center of the wildly popular ‘Serialpodcast just got one

40. Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: suspension, Northern, Irish, Assembly
  1. From a league of their own: How big-money foreign imports are
  2. Sinn Fein and SDLP welfare posturing a turn off
  3. Theresa Villiers rules out suspension of Northern Ireland Assembly
  4. Recalling the spirit of the Easter Rising
  5. Oireachtas Live: Statements on Fresh Start and other NI issues…
  6. Stormont crisis: Bid to adjourn Northern Ireland Assembly fails
  7. Northern Ireland Fast Facts
  8. Martin McGuinness urges Cameron not to suspend Stormont assembly
  9. The path to a political solution in Northern Ireland
  10. French parliament debates Syria air strikes

44. Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Roger, Goodell, commissioner, NFL
  1. Reid: NFL commissioner Roger Goodell owes fans a decision on LA
  2. Did Roger Goodell hear the Giants? Commissioner says NFL will re
  3. Roger Goodell draws distinction between DFS, season-long fantasy
  4. From Roger Goodell to Geno Smith: NFL’s biggest turkeys of 2015
  5. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on future Arizona Super Bowls
  6. Adrian Peterson praised by Roger Goodell for NFL return
  7. NFL Commissioner Defends League After Frank Gifford Brain
  8. The NFL, Roger Goodell And Domestic Violence: An Appeal For
  9. Patriots owners spotted with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell
  10. Goodell will tour new stadium, attend Sunday’s Vikings-Packers game

45. As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?

My forecasting path

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avg_prediction_qid_45_uid_102_branch_less-than-560000.png

avg_prediction_qid_45_uid_102_branch_more-than-710000-but-less-than-1-million.png

Current news for keywords: refugees, migrants, UNHCR, report, arrived, Europe, sea
  1. UN decries Balkans border curbs on refugees; arrivals in Greece fall
  2. Refugees find hope and tragedy together in Lesbos
  3. As the world turns away, refugees are still drowning in the Med
  4. New border regime in the Balkans “inequitable and illegal”
  5. Migrant Flow Shows No Sign of Winter Slowdown; UN Expects
  6. Worsening weather brings more tragedy to eastern Aegean
  7. October’s migrant, refugee flow to Europe roughly matched whole of
  8. UN official: Refugees are ‘victims of terrorists,’ unified response
  9. UN expects Europe’s refugee flow to top 1 million in 2015
  10. Balkan countries impose “national segregation” at borders

46. What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

My forecasting path

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avg_prediction_qid_46_uid_102_branch_less-than-125000.png

avg_prediction_qid_46_uid_102_branch_more-than-250000.png

Current news for keywords: average, number, Bitcoin, transactions, per, day
  1. Argentina’s New President: Good News for Bitcoin, Bad News for
  2. Exclusive Interview with the Media Division Manager of 1Broker
  3. Shift is a debit card for your bitcoin wallet
  4. Everyone Says Bitcoin Is Back. But It Never Really Left
  5. Here’s Everything You Need to Get Started With Bitcoin
  6. Transparency issues in the music industry could be solved by
  7. 9 enterprise tech trends for 2016 and beyond
  8. ‘Armada’ Extortionist Hackers Bulldoze ‘Secure’ Email Services But
  9. Bitcoin back in favor after price pop and drop
  10. Backpage.com evens the score in lawsuit against Dart

47. Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?

My forecasting path

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Current news for keywords: Apple, million, iPhones, December, quarter
  1. Report: Apple now at over 100 million iPhones in use in the US
  2. UBS’s Apple iPhone Survey Showing Demand In-line With Analyst
  3. Apple: Foxconn Results Indicate Strong iPhone Growth This Quarter
  4. Apple’s iPhone China October Sales In Good Shape
  5. Apple: December iPhones Just Fine, Says UBS, March Might Be Soft
  6. Overhyped Apple Watch finally showing signs of life
  7. Credit Suisse Slices Apple Estimates Based On Channel Checks
  8. Apple is a hot product for holiday shoppers
  9. Apple iPhone winning where it counts: profits
  10. Apple set for best ever quarter, iPhone 6s, 6s Plus shipments surge

49. Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_49_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: government, shutdown, United, States
  1. America’s Next Top Budget Controversy
  2. Could the government shut down over refugees?
  3. Syrian refugee fight sparks government shutdown threat
  4. The five things that could still force a government shutdown
  5. November 14, 1995: The US Government Shuts Down Because of a
  6. Syria refugee fight emerges as government shutdown threat
  7. What to Know About ‘BernieCare,’ Sanders’ Health Overhaul
  8. The Paris Climate Talks By the Numbers
  9. US ‘troubled’ by arrest of Cumhuriyet editors, calls on Turkey to
  10. Bill Gates to commit billions for clean energy

50. Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_50_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Bank, Japan, increase, asset, purchases
  1. Chinese Cash Floods US Real Estate Market
  2. QE’s QB: Fed sees ‘through Wall Street’s eyes’
  3. Zombie companies in South Korea spur restructuring push
  4. Bonds, Dollar Gain as ECB, Fed Look Set to Diverge
  5. Japan inflation below zero for 3rd straight month
  6. Dollar Rides High Into Month-End
  7. Stocks shrug off Shanghai tumble
  8. Five Ways Sanders Could Democratize the Financial Sector That
  9. Bank of Japan is done boosting stimulus: experts
  10. Russia’s Central Bank adds yuan to reserve currency basket

51. Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_51_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: dispute, IAEA, access, Iranian, site, Joint, Commission
  1. US spin on access to Iranian sites has distorted the issue
  2. Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Really Getting a 24-Day Pass?
  3. Citing Nuke Deal, Netanyahu Says Iran Can Delay Inspections for
  4. Parsing the Iran Deal
  5. Ex-IAEA Leader: 24-Day Inspection Delay Will Boost Iranian Nuclear
  6. Schumer’s claims about ’24 days before you can inspect’ in Iran
  7. CAROL A. TABER: “Verification” in the Iran deal is even more of a
  8. Iran deal could prevent a nuclear-armed foe, but it comes with risks
  9. The Power of Precise Predictions
  10. Read more on the Iran nuclear deal

54. Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_54_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: NATO, invite, Montenegro, alliance
  1. NATO discusses Montenegro’s path to membership
  2. Pro-Russian Parties Seek To Derail Montenegro’s NATO Bid
  3. NATO chief: Russia interference boosts Montenegro chances
  4. US and NATO Praise Montenegro’s Progress
  5. Montenegro’s membership in NATO must not be interfered with
  6. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Holds Weekly Press Briefing
  7. Portugal’s new PM promises break with austerity
  8. Hosting NATO top brass, Montenegro says optimistic on
  9. Time for US to get serious about Europe
  10. The world in brief

55. Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_55_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Malaysia, impose, capital, controls
  1. Emerging markets: Malaysia’s stricken ASEAN host pageantry
  2. Protesters push leaders to avert climate catastrophe
  3. China Sucked Deeper Into World Financial Vortex and Vice Versa
  4. NAJIB REITERATES NO RINGGIT PEG OR CAPITAL CONTROLS
  5. Malaysia won’t peg currency, impose capital control: PM
  6. Malaysia’s 3Q economic growth slows down at 4.7%
  7. Malaysia central bank starts taking US dollar deposits for the 1st
  8. Deadly Siege Ends After Assault on Hotel in Mali
  9. Double or Nothing Is Way Into Lucrative Indonesian Banking
  10. Malaysia sees no need for capital control measures: Central bank

56. Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_56_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Winds, Winter, released, Season, 6, Game, Thrones
  1. Winds of WinterRelease Date: Book Unlikely To Be Out Before
  2. Winds of WinterRelease Date & Spoilers: Happening Before ‘Game
  3. Author George RR Martin Teases About Shocking Twists In ‘Winds
  4. When Will ‘Winds of Winter‘ Come Out? Here’s What George R.R.
  5. Game of ThronesSeason 6 premiere possibly delayed, is new book
  6. Game of Thrones Season 6 News and Everything to Know
  7. George R.R. Martin, ‘Game Of ThronesSeason 6 Delayed? ‘Winds
  8. George R.R. Martin Hints Shocking Twists For ‘Winds Of Winter
  9. Game of Thrones season six: new leak reveals how Jon Snow
  10. Game Of Thrones Season 6 Premiere Date: Next Season Will

57. How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_57_uid_102_branch_0.png

avg_prediction_qid_57_uid_102_branch_all.png

avg_prediction_qid_57_uid_102_branch_between-1-and-5-inclusive.png

avg_prediction_qid_57_uid_102_branch_more-than-five-but-less-than-all.png

Current news for keywords: Russia, remove, embargo
  1. Prince Trubetskoy Urges France to Remove Anti-Russia Sanctions
  2. Russia-Turkey Relations Heading Into ‘Dead-End,’ Putin Says as
  3. President Obama bows to environmentalists on oil export ban
  4. Silhan Ozcelik is a hero
  5. Russia has started process of delivering S300 missiles to Iran
  6. Bring Russia, Syria and Iran to the Table to Defeat ISIS
  7. Putin’s Fortress Russia Takes Its Toll
  8. Before ‘IS’ emerged, Syria already had a full-blown civil war
  9. Opposition Wants a Say in Choosing Syrian Leaders
  10. Russian Federation to ban Ukrainian food imports from January

61. Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_61_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: no-fly, zone, Syria
  1. Downed Russian Military Jet Heightens Debate Over Syria No-Fly
  2. A Turkish Act of War Against Russia. A No Fly Zone in Northern Syria
  3. No-Fly Zone in Syria Is a No-No
  4. Please Do Not No-FlyZone Us Into World War III
  5. Clinton widens gap with Obama on Syria, calling for no-fly zone
  6. The Reckless Proposal to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Syria
  7. Pentagon hesitant to commit to no-fly zone, given challenges
  8. President Erdoğan still pursuing no-fly zone in northern Syria
  9. Turkey Renews Call for Syria No-Fly Zone
  10. Gen. John Allen throws cold water on Syria no-fly zone

62. Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_62_uid_102_branch_no.png

avg_prediction_qid_62_uid_102_branch_yes-mohammed-bin-nayef.png

avg_prediction_qid_62_uid_102_branch_yes-mohammed-bin-salman.png

avg_prediction_qid_62_uid_102_branch_yes-muqrin-bin-abdulaziz.png

avg_prediction_qid_62_uid_102_branch_yes-someone-else.png

Current news for keywords: new, King, Saudi, Arabia
  1. Letter From Saudi Arabia
  2. Revealed: Saudi Arabia’s manifesto for change in the face of
  3. Saudi Arabian executioners are having an unusually prolific year
  4. Saudi Arabia Backs Tax on Empty Land as 40% of Riyadh Sits Empty
  5. Saudi king showered Obamas with $1.3 million in gifts in 2014
  6. Haifa al-Hababi Is Saudi Arabia’s 1st Female Political Candidate
  7. Rancor Between Saudi Arabia and Iran Threatens Talks on Syria
  8. WikiLeaks Reveals Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Qatar Secret Anti-Syria Plot
  9. Paris attacks: How the influence of Saudi Arabia sowed the seeds of
  10. Saudis spent $1.35 million on Obama gifts in 2014

63. Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_63_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: US, Justice, Department, file, criminal, charges, against, Volkswagen
  1. The Challenges for Volkswagen’s Internal Investigation
  2. Volkswagen Diesel Scandal: Will US Justice Department File
  3. The Story Behind ‘Alice’s Restaurant’ —the 50-Year-Old Song that Is
  4. Justice Dept. Considering Criminal Charges Against Volkswagen
  5. Hanover woman files suit against Volkswagen
  6. VW diesel owners to get $1000 in gift cards and vouchers
  7. Terror in Little Saigon
  8. The Morning Risk Report: Water Permitting Gets Murkier
  9. REUTERS AMERICA NEWS PLAN FOR FRIDAY NOV 6
  10. The Morning Risk Report: Enforcement May Be Limited in IAAF

64. Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_64_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Putin, meet, Abe, Japan
  1. Putin’s Japan visit shelved for this year amid inconclusive meeting
  2. AbePutin meeting being planned on fringes of G-20 summit in Turkey
  3. Japan Plans to Prepare for Putin’s Visit ‘in Close Contact’ With Obama
  4. Japan Preparing Possible Abe, Putin Meeting at G20 in Turkey
  5. Abe looks to hold talks with Obama, Xi, Putin this month
  6. Abe affirms Japan-U.S. ties at ASEAN summit
  7. Obama, Abe to hold talks next week in Manila
  8. Japan’s Abe seeks talks with US, Chinese, Russian leaders
  9. Wall Street Breakfast: A Very Black Friday For Chinese Stocks
  10. Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama hold first meeting and promise

66. Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_66_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: RCEP, negotiations, completed
  1. RCEP negotiations to continue next year
  2. APEC Summit Reaffirms Commitment to FTAAP Through TPP
  3. There will be opportunities in East Asia’s top trio
  4. Jokowi sees benefits from joining TPP pact
  5. Time extended for RCEP talks
  6. Dealing with Challenges and Opportunities Arising from Next
  7. Froman back on TPP tour after China talks
  8. ASEAN member states establish economic community
  9. Intensified efforts urged to conclude RCEP talks by 2016
  10. Reaching a new milestone for the ASEAN path

70. Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_70_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: NATO, invoke, Article, 4, in, Russia
  1. Russian Su-24 Plane Update: Will Turkey Invoke NATO’s Collective
  2. “Collective Self-Defense” against ISIS: Politicians in Washington
  3. Bulgarian PM: Tension between Nato, Russia ‘not good’
  4. Paris: An attack on one, an attack on all?
  5. Work with Russia in Syria and we may see rewards in Ukraine
  6. Lunatics in Washington Want NATO Article 5 Invoked for Total War
  7. State Terrorism: Franco-American Style
  8. Holcomb: Peace-through-strength strategy needed in confronting IS
  9. Will NATO Respond to the Attacks on Paris?
  10. Fight terrorism, shape world

71. When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_71_uid_102_branch_before-1-march-2016.png

avg_prediction_qid_71_uid_102_branch_between-1-march-and-30-april-2016-inclusive.png

avg_prediction_qid_71_uid_102_branch_between-1-may-and-30-june-2016-inclusive.png

avg_prediction_qid_71_uid_102_branch_not-before-1-july-2016.png

Current news for keywords: Iran, launch, ballistic, missile?
  1. FEATURED | Geopolitical Correlations between Iran’s Ballistic
  2. Iran reveals range of Emad ballistic missile
  3. New app teaches Iranians about missiles
  4. Iran’s missile threat: Counter it
  5. The Islamic Republic’s Intensifying War on America
  6. It’s Official: There Will Be No Iranian ICBM in 2015
  7. Iran, Russia in talks over major arms deal
  8. Threat of Russian Cruise Missiles Close Down Iraqi Airports
  9. US confirms Iran tested nuclear-capable ballistic missile
  10. Iran test-fires new generation long-range ballistic missiles, state

74. Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_74_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Palestinian, Authority, Israel, halt, security, cooperation
  1. Fatah leaders warn that PA might break ties with Israel
  2. Israel Outlaws Northern Branch of Islamic Movement
  3. Bibi Soothes GA Crowd; Focus On Youth Continues
  4. How The American Religious Right Is Making The Middle East
  5. Hamas’ Meshaal calls for unity to support intifada
  6. The Hillary Clinton Doctrine
  7. The Latest: News from the Paris attacks
  8. Asio terrorism investigations doubled to 400 in 2014-15, agency
  9. Palestinians halt security cooperation with Israel after minister’s death
  10. ‘Abbas may halt security cooperation with Israel unless Palestine is

76. Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_76_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: North, Korea, nuclear, test
  1. North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed
  2. North Korea digging tunnel at nuclear test site, possibly for future
  3. No signs of new North Korea nuclear test tunnel: U.S. experts
  4. US, South Korea express ‘grave concern’ over North Korean threats
  5. Bearing Witness To A Nuclear North Korea
  6. China Attempts to Turn North Korea from Liability to Asset
  7. Forget China — N. Korea Markets Missiles Despite Iran Nuclear Deal
  8. S. Korea, China discuss N. Korea policy after envoy’s Pyongyang visit
  9. N. Korea digging tunnel at nuclear test site, possibly for future test
  10. ‘No signs of new North Korea nuclear test

77. Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_77_uid_102_branch_no.png

avg_prediction_qid_77_uid_102_branch_yes-both-article-4-and-article-5.png

avg_prediction_qid_77_uid_102_branch_yes-only-article-4.png

avg_prediction_qid_77_uid_102_branch_yes-only-article-5.png

Current news for keywords: NATO, invoke, Article, 4, 5, ISIS
  1. Using Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to legalize the war against
  2. Analysis: Will France invoke NATO’s Article 5 to declare war on
  3. Russian Su-24 Plane Update: Will Turkey Invoke NATO’s Collective
  4. Hollande invokes EU treaty, hoping to build coalition against ISIS
  5. NATO response to Paris attacks would not require Canada to act
  6. White House: NATO ‘welcome’ in ISIS fight
  7. Holcomb: Peace-through-strength strategy needed in confronting IS
  8. Marco Rubio Calls for NATO Article 5, Coalition to Fight ISIS
  9. State Terrorism: Franco-American Style
  10. John Kasich calls for NATO action following Paris attack

78. Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_78_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: expanded, Panama, Canal, open, shipping
  1. Uncertain Opening Date of Panama Canal Expansion
  2. National strike affects work on Panama Canal expansion
  3. Florida Ports Anticipate More Asia Trade From Expanded Panama
  4. Wider Panama Canal Won’t Affect Hawaii
  5. Lead Letter: Eleven tough questions begging for real answers
  6. Delays of 10 days reported at Panama Canal
  7. Panama Canal Expansion Could Boost U.S. Ag Exports
  8. Markets – Product tankers – where next?
  9. New VLGCs taking toll on freight rates, open US LPG arbitrage
  10. Panama transshipment boom from expanded canal unlikely, port

79. Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_79_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Putin, attend, Nuclear, Security, Summit, Washington,
  1. Could U.S.-Russia tensions go nuclear?
  2. Putin lifts barriers to nuclear cooperation with Iran
  3. Putin Visits Iran
  4. The Latest: Police in Rotterdam detain 3 people
  5. Administration will soon be forced to confront big decisions on Syria
  6. Who’s in Control? Obama or the generals?
  7. Close Up: Angela Merkel – Alone at the Top
  8. Russia’s nuclear capability an existential threat to US: Gen. Milley
  9. Russia Tells US It Will not Attend 2016 Nuclear Security Summit
  10. US Nuclear Security Summit to Take Place in March 2016 – White

80. Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_80_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Britain, referendum, EU, membership
  1. Cameron ally says hopes fading for EU membership deal this year
  2. EU referendum: Majority of UK public wants ‘Brexit’, poll reveals
  3. EU membership referendum will be UK-wide poll
  4. Interview: Sir Richard Lambert on Economics and the EU Referendum
  5. Tories plot against Cameron’s EU referendum plan
  6. EU referendum: Britain could thrive outside Europe, claims David
  7. UK to hold just one vote on EU membership, forum hears
  8. George Osborne enlists Treasury to make case for EU membership
  9. What might Britain leaving the EU look like? No-one really knows
  10. EU referendum: 16 year-olds should not be allowed to vote

81. Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_ben-carson.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_carly-fiorina.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_donald-trump.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_jeb-bush.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_marco-rubio.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_none-of-the-above.png

avg_prediction_qid_81_uid_102_branch_ted-cruz.png

Current news for keywords: Republican, Party, nomination, US, presidential, election
  1. The 2016 presidential election is already decided in the Heart of Dixie
  2. Marco Rubio Bets the Grand Old Party Is Ready for His Younger Face
  3. Trump’s campaign again turning into ‘worst nightmare’ for GOP
  4. Iowa Voters on Cruz: He’s Conservative Enough, But Is He Electable?
  5. Steady debate performance banishes gloom for US Republican Jeb
  6. Neither Donald Trump Nor Ben Carson Is Going to Be the 2016 GOP
  7. Forum: Reality Politics: The 2016 presidential elections
  8. Georgiana Vines: Former mayor Victor Ashe backs Rubio for GOP
  9. Donald Trump’s racist rise presents ‘fascist’ threat to Republican Party
  10. At Trump’s presidential rallies, a combustible mix of glee, fear

82. Will the National Retail Federation report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_82_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: National, Retail, Federation, report, spending, Thanksgiving, weekend
  1. 57 Percent of Holiday Shoppers Already Making Dents in Their Lists
  2. Black Friday shows surge of shoppers
  3. Why I Won’t Shop on Thanksgiving Weekend
  4. China Held 10 Japanese Suspected Spies Since 2012, Kyodo Reports
  5. Will a Lackluster Black Friday Sink the US Economy?
  6. Do Star Wars toys have ‘the force’ to dominate?
  7. Star Wars toys lack ‘the force’ to dominate
  8. Retailers Relieved by Holiday Start Yet Uncertainty Persists for
  9. Stock Market Tests Coming With Auto Sales, Job Reports and More
  10. Retailers report strong sales Thanksgiving week, locals share

84. Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_84_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: Turkey, impose, capital, controls
  1. Turkey-EU Summit, Climate Talks, NATO: EU Week Ahead Nov. 29
  2. Russia loses reputation as a reliable trade partner
  3. Refugees in Balkan limbo as crisis deepens EU divisions
  4. Is Turkey really at the table?
  5. Capital controls take toll on exports
  6. Why we should oppose British air strikes against ISIL in Syria
  7. Yuan: The new member in IMF’s reserve currency?
  8. MIDEAST STOCKS – Factors to watch – Nov 24
  9. Brussels schools reopen, manhunt ongoing for Paris suspects
  10. ISIS Women and Enforcers in Syria Recount Collaboration, Anguish

86. Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_86_uid_102_branch_yes.png

Current news for keywords: China, conduct, naval, exercises, ASEAN, member
  1. Disagreements over the South China Sea worsen as China digs in
  2. Navy exercises with Chinese, French as Minister visits ASEAN
  3. Time for America to Step Up in the South China Sea
  4. This is what Indian PM Modi hopes to achieve in Singapore
  5. ASEAN summit: Modi meets Shinzo Abe; discusses maritime
  6. Asian ‘pivot’ shouldn’t be derailed by Mideast crises
  7. WILL NAJIB & ZAHID DRAG MALAYSIA INTO WAR WITH CHINA
  8. PLA Air Force joins Thai military for joint drills
  9. Japan defense minister supports US in South China Sea
  10. ASEAN defense ministers cancel final statement over China

87. Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_christine-lagarde-will-serve-a-second-term.png

avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_someone-else-from-europe.png

avg_prediction_qid_87_uid_102_branch_someone-from-outside-europe.png

Current news for keywords: managing, director, next, IMF
  1. Thought Leaders Tackle Global Challenges at 2015 Lima Meetings
  2. Is RMB in the SDR a blessing for China?
  3. China Sucked Deeper Into World Financial Vortex and Vice Versa
  4. Will Christine Lagarde Face BRICS Challenge as IMF Term Nears
  5. IIFCL plans $1-billion ‘masala bonds’ issue next year
  6. IMF Director Tells Banks: Do Not Worry about Bitcoin & Blockchain
  7. UN Climate Talks 2009: a Merger of Interest and Indifference
  8. Private sector, civil society groups plead to political leaders
  9. IMF Officials Back Inclusion of Renminbi in Fund’s Currency
  10. Fiscal rules not enough to keep country’s economy on track, says King

88. Which team will win the NFLs Super Bowl in 2016?

My forecasting path

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-american-football-conference.png

avg_prediction_qid_88_uid_102_branch_a-team-from-the-national-football-conference.png

Current news for keywords: National, American, win, NFL, Super, Bowl
  1. Springfield Youth Tigers qualify for national football tournament
  2. NFL Week 12: Mike Tanier’s Previews and Score Predictions
  3. Trojans vs. Bruins: A Los Angeles-Rotary Tradition
  4. Jaguars, Rams, Bengals to play London “home” games
  5. Top 100 moments in NFL history
  6. Cowboys Try To Stay In Playoff Race Against Undefeated Panthers
  7. GAMEDAY GUIDE: 11/29 Jets vs. Dolphins
  8. Check This Data Before You Bet on Your NFL Team for Thanksgiving
  9. Opinion: We Americans are set to gorge on Thanksgiving football
  10. NFL’s 7-0 teams have pretty good chance of winning Super Bowl

If you’ve never heard of Kolmogorov

If you’ve never heard of Kolmogorov you may have heard of Claude Shannon.  This paper gives a connection between the work of Kolmogorov and Shannon:

Wald Lecture I: Counting Bits with Kolmogorov and Shannon
Wald Lecture I: Counting Bits with Kolmogorov and Shannon David L. Donoho Stanford University Abstract Shannon’s Rate-Distortion Theory describes the number of bits …

Shannon’s magnum opus was

A Mathematical Theory of Communication – worrydream.com
Reprinted with corrections from The Bell System Technical Journal, Vol. 27, pp. 379–423, 623–656, July, October, 1948. A Mathematical Theory of Communication

Shannon’s main idea was bit rate in a channel, how many bits you can reliably pass in a second.  Kolmogorov’s main idea was how compressible the bits of an object were, in the sense of how short a program can you write to generate the bits of the object

Kolmogorov complexity – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In algorithmic information theory (a subfield of computer science and mathematics), the Kolmogorov complexity (also known as descriptive complexity, Kolmogorov …

Breaking out multipart questions as separate questions

Consider an election question in which there are 3 candidates, Bush, Trump and Rubio who might win.  Suppose people forecast the outcome of this question by assigning probability X to Bush, Y to Trump and Z to Rubio, where probabilities are between 0 and 100.  Only one person can win, so X = 100 – (Y + Z) = 100 – Y – Z.  Intuitively, looking at this expression, the correlation between X and Y ought to be -1 and similarly corr(X,Z) should be -1.  However note while Y in U[0,100], Z in U[0,Y].  If Y and Z were independent, their sum would follow an Irwin-Hall distribution.  But given Z in U[0,Y], what distribution does Y+Z follow?

I did a simulation experiment and found the correlation for X,Y to be -65% and for X and Z to be -14%, for 10,000 paths, and consistently so with increasing paths.   This is the Python code for the experiment:


from numpy.random import *
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from scipy.stats.stats import pearsonr
N=10000
Y=random_integers(0,100,N)
Z=np.vectorize(lambda y: random_integers(0,100-y))(Y)
X=100-(Y+Z)
print "rho(x,y)", pearsonr(X,Y)
print "rho(x,z)", pearsonr(X,Z)
plt.clf()
plt.scatter(X,Y)
plt.title("X vs Y, X=100-(Y+Z)")
plt.xlabel("X")
plt.ylabel("Y")
plt.savefig("corrxy.png")
plt.clf()
plt.scatter(X,Z)
plt.title("X vs Z, X=100-(Y+Z)")
plt.xlabel("X")
plt.ylabel("Z")
plt.savefig("corrxz.png")


Here is a scatterplot of X and Y:corrxy.png

 

Here is a scatterplot of X and Z:

corrxz.png

These plots are virtually identical, for 10,000 paths, though Y is denser towards the top of the triangle and Z is denser below.

I don’t know how to explain this difference in correlations, and I don’t know what is the PDF of (100-(Y+Z)).  The former may have to do with the quality of the NumPy uniform random number generator.  Or it could be due to the Pythagorean Theorem.  The latter is math that’s a little bit above my head.  (Even the PDF of the uncorrelated sum is a bit hairy.)

The reason this is interesting is that I am forecasting questions in an open forecasting tournament called GJOpen.com.  We are assigned accuracy scores based on final outcome.  However it is possible for parts of a question to become determined before all parts of a question are determined.  For example, a question which is whether rainfall by December 31st will be 0-10 inches/year, 10-15 inches/year or > 15inches/year.  If it rains at least 10 inches, then the first bin is closed but the other two are still live.  For such questions, it would be helpful to be scored separately on each bin.  However, the bins are correlated, as above.  Then the problem is how to accomodate in scoring accuracy for correlated bins.

AAR “Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?” (UPDATE 3)

Scoring and Good Judgment consensus graph

The orange line is Macri (the winner), and the rainbow line is my estimate that Macri will win.  I was ahead of the crowd for the last 2 weeks but wrong the rest of the time:

macri

This resulted in the following Brier scores for me:

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Nov 23, 2015 01:00AM UTC Who will win the presidential election in Argentina? 100.0% 1.664 1.117 0.547

For purposes of analyzing questions with multiple possible answers, I prefer to consider each answer as a separate (though tightly correlated) question.  Let’s look at each branch now.

Branch: SOMEONE ELSE

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Someone else.png

This branch had no links in support.  There were 10 words of analysis with the following cloud:

cloud_Someone else_comments_10.png

Branch: Sergio Massa

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Sergio Massa.png

Massa got 30 words of commentary with cloud

cloud_Sergio Massa_comments_30.png

Sergio Massa had one link in support:

  1. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RY0KF20151004

Branch: Daniel Scioli

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Daniel Scioli.png

The favorite based on initial polling.  I blindly followed this until 2 weeks prior.  Crowd took a while to catch up, probably due to 98% non-participation after initial forecast.  This leads to the idea that non-participating forecasters should have their forecasts minimized in the aggregation function.  I’ll have to try this some time!

Scioli got 5659 words of analysis with cloud

cloud_Daniel Scioli_comments_5659.png

Daniel Scioli got 50 links in support:

  1. http://abcenlinea.com.ar/para-ceop-scioli-gana-en-primera-vuelta/
  2. http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iim5syxYuKlQ/v3/-1x-1.png
  3. http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=473615031&Country=Argentina&topic=Politics
  4. http://danielmarcelino.com/argentine-general-election-2015/
  5. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/08/27/scioli-macri-the-most-probable-run-off-in-argentina-s-presidential-race
  6. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/12/scioli-leads-presidential-race-in-argentina-but-still-a-puff-short-to-avoid-runoff
  7. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/19/scioli-with-best-chances-of-becoming-argentina-s-next-president-if-the-runoff-is-with-macri
  8. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/29/macri-ahead-of-scioli-with-8.8-still-undecided-shows-first-poll-following-sunday-s-vote
  9. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/25/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0RP1U920150925
  10. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0RS2FG20150928
  11. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34634210
  12. http://www.betbreakingnews.com/betmod-item/14109/
  13. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/argentine-opposition-pact-would-backfire-in-election-poll-says
  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/argentine-oil-governors-back-daniel-scioli-in-presidential-bid
  15. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/argentina-s-scioli-closing-in-on-first-round-victory-poll-shows
  16. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/argentine-front-runner-on-verge-of-first-round-win-polls-show
  17. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/victory-for-argentina-s-macri-not-a-given-goldman-sachs-says
  18. http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/197589/new-poll-puts-scioli-10-points-clear-for-october-elections
  19. http://www.cba24n.com.ar/content/rabolini-compartio-acto-con-alejandra-vigo-en-corrientes
  20. http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21660149-voters-are-about-start-choosing-next-president-scion-and-heir
  21. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21676770-front-runner-promises-continuity-country-needs-change-cleaning-up-after-cristina
  22. http://www.eltribuno.info/con-respeto-y-algunos-cruces-5-candidatos-expusieron-sus-planes-n621755
  23. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43816.pdf
  24. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/27/no-3-in-argentina-first-round-presidential-election-hints-at-backing-opposition/
  25. http://www.infobae.com/2015/09/20/1756695-encuesta-sergio-massa-le-ganaria-el-ballottage-daniel-scioli-pero-mauricio-macri-no
  26. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/argentinian-polls-show-strong-lead-for-daniel-scioli-1.2396657
  27. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1817544-ganadores-y-perdedores-quienes-se-perfilan-para-seguir-en-carrera-a-la-presidencia
  28. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1839396-elecciones-2015-resultados-en-vivo-por-provincia-municipio-y-comuna
  29. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/data-elecciones-2015-t52156
  30. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499
  31. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/11/world/americas/primaries-in-argentina-point-to-a-close-presidential-race.html?_r=0
  32. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/business/dealbook/argentine-front-runner-for-president-is-expected-to-resolve-standoff-with-us-hedge-funds.html?_r=0
  33. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/world/americas/election-will-end-kirchners-presidency-not-her-hold-on-argentina.html?_r=0
  34. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/americas/argentina-presidential-election.html
  35. http://www.perfil.com/politica/Scioli-ganaria-en-primera-vuelta-vence-a-Macri-en-ballottage-pero-no-a-Massa-20151017-0163.html
  36. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RW2GE20151002
  37. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0RY0KF20151004
  38. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/11/us-argentina-election-poll-idUSKCN0S50PI20151011
  39. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-argentina-election-count-idUSKCN0SE2VC20151020
  40. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0SJ04520151026
  41. http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/world-politics/Argentina-Presidential-Election-2146105.html
  42. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Polls-Scioli-to-Win-Argentinas-Presidential-Election-Sunday-20151023-0001.html
  43. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/23/argentina-elections-2015-a-guide-to-the-parties-polls-and-electoral-system
  44. http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-argentina-presidential-elections-survey/2979335.html
  45. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/20/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-argentinas-2015-federal-elections/
  46. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-presidential-front-runner-daniel-scioli-warily-signals-new-tack-1445456688
  47. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2015
  48. https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Argentina_de_2015
  49. https://www.rt.com/news/319655-argentine-scioli–exit-polls/
  50. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/20/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-argentinas-2015-federal-elections/

Branch: Mauricio Macri

avg_prediction_qid_20_uid_102_branch_Mauricio Macri.png

The dark horse finisher.  I tweaked to this 2 weeks out but not soon enough to rescue my Briar score.  Crowd well lagging, most likely due to 98% non-participation after initial forecast.

Macri got 7006 words of analysis with cloud

cloud_Mauricio Macri_comments_7006

Macri had 64 links in support:

  1. https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/some-numbers-on-the-gj-open-population/
  2. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentine-election-front-runner-criticizes-regions-leftists-35121662
  3. http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/22/argentines-contemplate-election-with-far-reaching-consequences.html
  4. http://buenosairesherald.com/article/201741/massa-embraces-role-of-runoff-kingmaker
  5. http://buenosairesherald.com/article/202952/polls-put-macri-ahead
  6. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/28/third-ranked-massa-will-not-vote-for-continuity-and-scioli-must-prove-he-s-not-on-the-kirchner-leash
  7. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/29/macri-ahead-of-scioli-with-8.8-still-undecided-shows-first-poll-following-sunday-s-vote
  8. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/07/argentina-massa-tells-ft-he-has-been-given-the-task-of-controlling-government
  9. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/cristina-fernandez-cancels-trip-to-g20-summit-and-joins-scioli-s-presidential-campaign
  10. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/cristina-fernandez-cancels-trip-to-g20-summit-and-joins-scioli-s-presidential-campaign).
  11. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/macri-leads-by-eight-points-but-one-in-ten-voters-remains-undecided-says-poll
  12. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/09/macri-leads-by-eight-points-but-one-in-ten-voters-remains-undecided-says-poll).
  13. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/12/sunday-s-presidential-candidates-debate-decisive-for-argentina-s-runoff-on-november-22
  14. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/14/argentine-analyst-says-8-decide-their-vote-on-election-day
  15. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/16/presidential-debate-not-much-substance-but-a-clear-fading-of-the-kirchnerite-confrontation-spirit
  16. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/17/presidential-debate-with-no-clear-winner-which-favors-macri-unless-there-s-a-black-swan
  17. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/18/presidential-debate-widened-the-gap-for-macri-scioli-unable-to-transmit-his-true-profile
  18. http://en.mercopress.com/2015/11/19/pope-francis-calls-on-argentines-to-vote-with-conscience-next-sunday
  19. http://en.mercopress.com/tags/argentina-general-elections-2015
  20. http://horsestories.com
  21. http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2015/11/03/opinion-political-earthquake-in-argentina-may-produce-aftershocks-in-venezuela/
  22. http://news.yahoo.com/argentina-opposition-presidential-bid-helped-rising-provincial-star-200949218–business.html
  23. http://news.yahoo.com/opposition-candidate-macri-leads-argentina-presidential-race-poll-151604522–sector.html
  24. http://oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/measurement_comparability.html
  25. http://oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/online_research_methods.html
  26. http://reportuk.info/post/326131).
  27. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/14/uk-argentina-election-idUKKCN0T310L20151114
  28. http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NXK6XB6JIJUY01-2D2E78K045QIV94CBOI1G6TMR6
  29. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sell-soy-ahead-of-argentine-elections-says-morgan-stanley–9003.html
  30. http://www.as-coa.org/articles/argentina-update-debate-and-polls-runoff-vote
  31. http://www.atilioboron.com.ar/2015/10/argentina-un-balotaje-crucial-para.html
  32. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-26/this-first-time-pollster-was-only-one-to-call-argentine-election
  33. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/as-argentina-s-election-goes-to-runoff-all-eyes-turn-to-loser)
  34. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/moody-s-raises-argentina-outlook-on-changes-in-political-climate
  35. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/victory-for-argentina-s-macri-not-a-given-goldman-sachs-says
  36. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-09/argentine-exchange-rates-are-converging-on-macri-s-lead-in-polls
  37. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/argentina-poised-to-make-history-in-sunday-presidential-election
  38. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/kirchner-foe-in-lead-in-argentina-vote–and-markets-are-excited.html
  39. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/22/argentinas-elections-produce-win-for-macri-exit-polls.html
  40. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/daily-chart-12
  41. http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2015/11/05/what-should-investors-know-about-argentinas-presidential-election/
  42. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec5f24b6-8391-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html?siteedition=intl
  43. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec5f24b6-8391-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html?siteedition=intl).
  44. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1836089-laberinto-politico
  45. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1838567-una-eleccion-rodeada-de-varios-enigmas-hasta-el-final
  46. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/americas/argentina-presidential-election.html
  47. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/world/americas/argentina-considers-shift-as-upstart-rises-in-presidential-race.html?_r=0
  48. http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/polana/virtualissue3.html
  49. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0SK1KR20151026
  50. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/10/argentina-hipotecario-bonds-idUSL1N1351PG20151110#3DRY1LCMgzusILPO.97
  51. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111
  52. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111#H4yh0zVLFqetjcGT.97.
  53. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-argentina-election-idUSKCN0T01MM20151111#mRYJSFXfhcYTKKmr.97
  54. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/argentina-election-macri-idUSL8N13659F20151113
  55. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentina-Presidential-Debate-Pits-Left-vs-Right-on-Economics-20151115-0022.html
  56. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Argentina-A-Crucial-Ballot-for-Latin-America-20151106-0011.html
  57. http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/09/28/why-public-opinion-polls-are-increasingly-inaccurate
  58. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-kingmaker-sergio-massa-spurns-kirchner-ally-in-presidential-runoff-1446078882
  59. http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-presidential-front-runner-forged-his-career-in-world-of-soccer-1448066155
  60. http://www.wsj.com/articles/from-default-to-darling-argentina-bets-pay-off-for-hedge-funds-1447204491
  61. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2015
  62. https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2015/11/16/run-off-presidential-elections-in-argentina-could-have-positive-impact-on-the-region/
  63. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/opposition-claims-it-got-votes-to-force-runoff-in-argentina/2015/10/25/2716152c-7b83-11e5-837b-2c3f2478487e_story.html
  64. https://youtu.be/GiPe1OiKQuk
  65. https://youtu.be/j4XT-l-_3y0