AAR: Canadian prime minister question

On this question, with no insight, I tracked first the crowd, then Conservative all-in, then Liberal all-in, and got punished for it with a Brier score of 1.424 and Accuracy score of 0.764.

Moral of the story (which they told us to begin with): Don’t bet questions you don’t know and don’t care, or at least track the crowd continuously, don’t go all-in to begin with.

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