I put this at 100% for all but 2 days of the question, and still got scored worse than the median. That’s a bit of a crock, because the question was at 95% most of the time and there were plenty of people saying it wouldn’t happen. I guess I got dinged a lot for putting it at 0% for 2 days. I’m not going to worry about it.
So reasoning: It had to happen, it was the deal they wanted, nothing to think about. I guess the question was too obvious for there to be much juice in the scoring.
My rank has slipped from #54 to #152, I guess owing to the much larger number of people involved. Rank is on Accuracy Score which I guess is sum of differences beween Brier and Median over all questions in the challenge. So ranking is based on 2 questions, there’s room for a lot more sorting when more questions burn in. There are currently 8 open questions on the challenge.