AAR on “Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?”

I put this at 100% for all but 2 days of the question, and still got scored worse than the median.  That’s a bit of a crock, because the question was at 95% most of the time and there were plenty of people saying it wouldn’t happen.  I guess I got dinged a lot for putting it at 0% for 2 days.  I’m not going to worry about it.

So reasoning: It had to happen, it was the deal they wanted, nothing to think about.  I guess the question was too obvious for there to be much juice in the scoring.

My rank has slipped from #54 to #152, I guess owing to the much larger number of people involved.  Rank is on Accuracy Score which I guess is sum of differences beween Brier and Median over all questions in the challenge.  So ranking is based on 2 questions, there’s room for a lot more sorting when more questions burn in.  There are currently 8 open questions on the challenge.


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