After Action Reports on closed questions to date (in terms of accuracy score, lower is better)

Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? 0.327

Poor.  Should have: Enumerated all the countries under embargo, scanned news for each country and assessed state of each country individually.  I didn’t think of doing that and probably wouldn’t have put the time in.  I should not have predicted on this question.

Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? 0.346

There were various options besides straight pass that would allow a veto from President.  In the end the Republicans ducked this one.  I didn’t see them ducking, but I understand how tired they are.  Bad assessment of Republican scrappiness on my part.

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? 0.786

I assumed for most of question period that the mullahs would dick around on this one like they’ve dicked around on Jason Rezaian.  However they are acting with split cantankerousness: being naughty on Jason, being nice on nukes.  Hard to parse.  I got it wrong.

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? -0.006

I got this one right, from the get go, and didn’t flinch.  Go team Ericson!  Based on my assumption that Russians like to fire their weapons and aren’t shy about it, and wouldn’t move in unless they were ready to fire.  They hate looking indecisive.

Will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year? -0.079

No honor on this one.  It was lightly forecast, the news came out, I predicted the news, then it took a few days to make it official.  There were so many options that crowd was spread thin, giving me a slightly better accuracy score than the crowd.  No insight though, just news munching.

Will the book “Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October? 0.499

I figured this (a) for a business book and (b) not likely to penetrate the Nassim Taleb orthodoxy of the New York intelligentsia, so I didn’t think it would fly.  Looks like Prof. Tetlock has a chance of working his way into the Malcolm Gladwell club.  He’s so square and Midwestern that I didn’t think he’d get there.  My bad.  Did you know that New York Magazine was started by a Midwesterner?  Did you also know that there are, statistically speaking, almost no native New Yorkers, or at least, native Manhattanites?  That is, ones you’d ever hear about?


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