Where I’m at on GJ Open

Questions closed, in terms of whether I beat the crowd to any extent:

  • Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? YES
  • Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year? YES
  • Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? NO
  • Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? NO
  • Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? NO
  • Will the book “Superforecasting” (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller’s list by the end of October? NO

So I am a lousy forecaster, but I knew that already.  Here’s where I rank in terms of challenges:

  • Iran challenge: #54
  • Just for fun: #272
  • Geopolitics: #361

Moral of the story: Don’t rely on my opinions for anything, I really don’t know what I am talking about.


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