Here’s where I’m at on GJ Open

Date Ended Question Participation Rate Brier Score Median Score Accuracy Score
Sep 18, 2015 06:59AM UTC Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? 81.25% 0.593 0.168 0.346
Sep 21, 2015 06:59AM UTC Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? 100.0% 1.688 0.901 0.786
Sep 17, 2015 06:59AM UTC Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? 86.6667% 1.545 1.169 0.327
Sep 30, 2015 08:15PM UTC Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? 100.0% 0.000 0.006 -0.006

Good Judgment Project

I was a forecaster in Season 4 of Good Judgment Project, achieving the rank of 333/334 in my cohort (we were guinea pigs in a psychology experiment basically).

GJP has gone wide with a public site and you can find me there as forecaster 000.

As questions resolve I will blog on my forecasting results here, as the GJP site doesn’t host forecaster blogs (but they do have a link!).